Climate Commons^™

Drought Forecasting Isn't Just About Water- To Get Smart We Need Health And Financial Data Too, Neville Crossman, Ian Overton, Jamie Hannaford, Kerstin Stahl, Kevin Collins, Mark D. Svoboda, Mike Acreman, Nicole Wall

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Millennium Drought taught Australians many lessons about living under extremely dry conditions – not just about how to conserve water, but also about human suffering.

In a drought, farmers find it more difficult to make an income, leading to mental health problems and raising the rate of male suicides. In the city, the impact is felt through water restrictions and more expensive infrastructure.

With very dry conditions returning to Tasmania, central Queensland and western Victoria, are we better prepared for the next big drought?

This is an issue not just for Australia, but across the world, from California, to …

Advancing Methods To Measure The Atmospheric Co2 Sink From Carbonate Rock Weathering, Devon Salley Mr.

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

With rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations, a detailed understanding of processes that impact atmospheric CO2 fluxes is required. While a sink of atmospheric carbon from the continents to the ocean from carbonate mineral weathering is, to some degree, offset by carbonate mineral precipitation in the oceans, efforts are underway to make direct measurements of these fluxes. Measurement of the continental sink has two parts: 1) measurement of the dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) flux leaving a river basin, and 2) partitioning the inorganic carbon flux between the amount removed from the atmosphere and the portion from the bedrock. This study attempted to …

Droughtscape, Spring 2016, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

First quarter drought summary

First quarter drought impacts

Drought Risk Management Research Center

Kenyan official visits

DrIVER eyes forecasting

Drought scenario exercise

Student projects

Drought tournament

Response and recovery guide

Drought Portal

Network of drought observers

Caribbean “writeshops”

Communications staff grows

Umphlett Qci March 2016, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Vegetation Conditions

Early Signs of Spring

Winter Wheat Breaks Dormancy

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Percent of Average Precipitation: Strong El Niños

Identifying The Relationships Of Climate And Physiological Responses Of A Beech Forest Using The Standardised Recipitation Index: A Case Study For Slovakia, Jaroslav Vido, Katarína Střelcová, Paulína Nalevanková, Adriana Leštianska, Radoslav Kandrík, Alena Pástorová, Jaroslav Škvarenina, Tsegaye Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The paper presents relationship between the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and physiological responses of individual trees in a beech stand using an example of an experimental plot in Bienska valley (Zvolen, Slovakia). SPI is a widely used tool for monitoring both short-term and long-term droughts, and for the assessments of drought impacts on agriculture. Due to the complex ecosystem bonds, monitoring of drought in forests often requires a sophisticated technological approach. The aim of the paper was to correlate the SPI on the physiological responses of trees that were recorded during the performed physiological research (sap flow, and stem circumference …

Propagation Of Drought: From Meteorological Drought To Agricultural And Hydrological Drought, Wen Wang, Maurits W. Ertsen, Mark D. Svoboda, Mohsin Hafeez

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is a hazard that occurs everywhere in the world (both in dry and in wet areas). Despite the controversy regarding drought changes in the last decades [1–3], increases in drought intensity are clearly identified in some areas [4] and it is believed that although increased heating from global warming may not directly cause droughts, it is expected that when droughts occur, they are likely to set in quicker and be more intense [5].

Throughout its history, China has frequently suffered from drought disasters due to its monsoon climate and was regularly hit hard by droughts over the last decades. …

Stakeholder Coinquiries On Drought Impacts, Monitoring And Early Warning Systems, Kevin Collins, Jamie Hannaford, Mark D. Svoboda, Cody L. Knutson, Nicole A. Wall, Tonya K. Bernadt, Neville Crossman, Ian Overton, Mike Acreman, Sophie Bachmair, Kerstin Stahl

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The goal of the DrIVER (Drought Impacts: Vulnerability thresholds in monitoring and Early-warning Research) research project is to understand the links between natural (hydro-meteorological) drought and ecological response and socio-economic impacts to aid in developing enhanced drought early warning systems (DEWS). Three stakeholder workshops were convened in the USA, UK and Australia. The USA water supply case study engaged 27 community water suppliers and state, federal and private advisors in the Neuse and Cape Fear River basins in North Carolina. The UK workshop involved 34 national and regional stakeholders across the water supply, environmental regulation, agriculture, energy and health sectors. …

Handbook Of Drought Indicators And Indices, Mark Svoboda, Brian Fuchs, Integrated Drought Management Programme (Idmp)

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The purpose of this handbook is to cover some of the most commonly used drought indicators/indices that are being applied across drought-prone regions, with the goal of advancing monitoring, early warning and information delivery systems in support of risk-based drought management policies and preparedness plans. These concepts and indicators/indices are outlined below in what is considered to be a living document that will evolve and integrate new indicators and indices as they come to light and are applied in the future. The handbook is aimed at those who want to generate indicators and indices themselves, as well as for those …

From Grassroots To National Alliance: The Emerging Trajectory For Landowner Prescribed Burn Associations, John R. Weir, Dirac L. Twidwell, Carissa L. Wonkka

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

• Due to woody plant encroachment and seeing the need for fire on their lands, private landowners throughout the southern Great Plains have started forming prescribed burn associations (PBA) to assist each other with conducting prescribed fires. • Members of PBAs work together by pooling equipment and other resources, organizing training opportunities, and assisting with prescribed burns on each other’s properties, while teaching upcoming generations and inexperienced members the value of fire in grassland conservation and how to safely use it. • There are over 50 PBAs working in the southern Great Plains. As the number of PBAs has grown …

Rangeland Responses To Predicted Increases In Drought Extremity, David D. Breshears, Alan K. Knapp, Darin J. Law, Melinda D. Smith, Dirac L. Twidwell, Carissa L. Wonkka

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Rangeland managers actively focus on the potential to induce a shift in a site to an alternative state, but predicted changes in climate, particularly the likelihood of more extreme drought, necessitate reevaluating risks for alternative states. • Rangelands will differ in their susceptibility to undergo state changes due to climate change in general and for droughts of the future, in particular, which may be hotter. • Trees, shrubs, and grasses are expected to differ in their sensitivity to drought, with trees likely being most sensitive; this affects the likelihood for state changes in grasslands, shrublands, woodlands, and savannas. • Considering …

Climate-Relevant Land Use And Land Cover Change Policies, Rezaul Mahmood, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Clive Mcalpine

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Both observational and modeling studies clearly demonstrate that land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) play an important biogeophysical and biogeochemical role in the climate system from the landscape to regional and even continental scales. Without comprehensively considering these impacts, an adequate response to the threats posed by human intervention into the climate system will not be adequate. Public policy plays an important role in shaping local- to national-scale land-use practices. An array of national policies has been developed to influence the nature and spatial extent of LULCC. Observational evidence suggests that these policies, in addition to international trade treaties and protocols, …

Drought And Health In The Context Of Public Engagement, Nicole Wall, Michael Hayes

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Droughts have profoundly affected societies around the world from the earliest beginnings. A recent estimate from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) claims that more than 1 billion people have been affected by drought during the twenty-year period between 1994 and 2013. Because of the characteristics of drought, drought impacts are often difficult to identify and quantify, and this is especially true with public health-oriented drought consequences, including those resulting from low water quantities, poor water quality, mental health and stress, dust and windblown agents, and wildlife intrusion. However, when officials emphasize adopting a proactive risk …

Assessing Drought Vulnerability Using A Socioecological Framework, Joel R. Brown, Doug Kluck, Chad Mcnutt, Michael J. Hayes

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is a persistent problem on rangelands and adjusting management to respond appropriately is critical to both preserving natural resources and to maintaining financial viability. • We explore the value of using a structured assessment approach to determining both social and ecological vulnerability. • This approach allows for the identification of vulnerable ecosystems and business operations at regional and local scales as a basis for developing effective policies and programs.

Support For Drought Response And Community Preparedness: Filling The Gaps Between Plans And Action, Kelly Helm Smith, Crystal J. Stiles, Michael Hayes, Christopher Carparelli

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

This chapter examines which levels of government handle various aspects of drought, as well as interactions between levels of government, providing examples from states across the western United States. It also takes a look at aspects of drought that fall outside traditional lines of authority and disciplinary boundaries. As part of a discussion on how states support local drought response, the chapter details and contrasts how California and Colorado track public water supply restrictions, and describes Colorado’s process for incorporating input from river basins across the state into its water plan. Case studies focus on drought planning in the Klamath …

Droughtscape, Winter 2016, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s column

California drought FAQ

October-December 2015 drought

October-December 2015 impacts

2015 drought impacts in review

NDMC hiring geospatial analyst

CA drought exposes social vulnerability

UA helps Arizona ranchers, Forest Service work together

NDMC and partners help southern Plains ranchers manage drought

Chickasaw ranching workshop

Assessing The Evolution Of Soil Moisture And Vegetation Conditions During The 2012 United States Flash Drought, Jason A. Otkin, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher R. Hain, Mark D. Svoboda, David K. Johnson, Richard Mueller, Tsegaye Tadesse, Brian D. Wardlow, Jesslyn Brown

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

This study examines the evolution of several model-based and satellite-derived drought metrics sensitive to soil moisture and vegetation conditions during the extreme flash drought event that impacted major agricultural areas across the central U.S. during 2012. Standardized anomalies from the remote sensing based Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) and Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI) and soil moisture anomalies from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) are compared to the United States Drought Monitor (USDM), surface meteorological conditions, and crop and soil moisture data compiled by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).

Overall, the results show that rapid decreases in …

The Implications Of Climate Change For Nebraska: Summary Report Of Sector-Based Roundtable Discussions, Donald A. Wilhite, Kimberly Morrow

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

This report is the result of the work of many individuals that contributed to the success of the series of eight sector-based roundtable events that were held in September and October of 2015. First and foremost, we would like to thank the organizers and the organizations they represent for their leadership in bringing together a diverse set of key stakeholders to discuss the implications of climate change on their sector. It was such a pleasure to work with such a dedicated group of individuals. Second, we would like to thank the more than 350 people who participated in these discussions …

New Tools For Assessing Drought Conditions For Rangeland Management, Cody Knutson, Brian Fuchs

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Historical drought assessment and ongoingmonitoring is essential for understanding past drought occurrence, the relationships between past drought and its impacts, and for triggering action during current drought events. • A variety of new products have recently been developed to better monitor drought conditions and assess past occurrences at the local scale. • A growing number of resources are available to assist rangeland managers to develop a monitoring system and incorporate it into a drought management plan.

Umphlett Qci 2015, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Late Hard Freeze

Late Freezes Extended Growing Season

Warm Fall Delays Bird Migrations

Monitoring Water Resources Across the Basin

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Management Options For Water-Repellent Soils In Australian Dryland Agriculture, M. M. Roper, S. L. Davies, P. S. Blackwell, D. J. M. Hall, D. Bakker, R. Jongepier, P. R. Ward

Natural Resources Research Articles

Water-repellent (‘non-wetting’) soils are a major constraint to agricultural production in southern and south-west Australia, affecting >10 Mha of arable sandy soils. The major symptom is dry patches of surface soil, even after substantial rainfall, directly affecting agricultural production through uneven crop and pasture germination, and reduced nutrient availability. In addition, staggered weed germination impedes effective weed control, and delayed crop and pasture germination increases the risk of wind erosion. Water repellency is caused by waxy organic compounds derived from the breakdown of organic matter mostly of plant origin. It is more prevalent in soils with a sandy surface texture; …

Linking Seasonal Predictions To Decision-Making And Disaster Management In The Greater Horn Of Africa, Tsegaye Tadesse, Tonya Haigh, Nicole Wall, Andualem Shiferaw, Ben Zaitchik, Shimelis Beyene, Getachew Berhan, Jacob Petr

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Seventy-six participants, including experts from seven countries from the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) and project coinvestigators from the United States, met to discuss experimental seasonal prediction models and products for the GHA, to engage decision-makers and users in the assessment of hydroclimatic information requirements, and to use feedback to build a framework to support decision-making and disaster management. In pre- and postworkshop surveys, workshop participants were asked how the utility of forecasts to decision-makers might be improved. Their recommendations are presented

Using Future Benefits To Set Conservation Priorities For Wetlands, Samuel B. Merrill

Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics

In an era of rising sea levels, costal land managers including land trust representatives, municipal planners, and others contributing to decisions about whether to develop or protect coastal parcels do not have viable means of evaluating future values on wetlands that will be created when sea levels rise. This project develops and tests a software modeling approach to help address this issue, in combination with a novel, expert-opinion driven benefit-cost framework. The beta test used three parcels in Scarborough, Maine: Hampton Circle, Maine Audubon, and Pine Point. It used a group of experts to 1) allocate initial values to these …

Droughtscape, Fall 2015, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s column.

NDMC 20th anniversary 2

Employment opportunity

Third quarter 2015 climate summary

Third quarter 2015 impacts summary

Workshop in Ethiopia

San Antonio multi-hazard tournament

Healthy soil is drought buffer

U2U Award

Cost-benefit analysis for utilities managing drought

NDMC helps with rural poll questions on climate

Introducing our post-docs

South Korean visitors

Umphlett Qci Sept 2015, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalie

Streamflow

Heavy Rains Continued

Positive and Negative Impacts to Agriculture

Persistent Smoke from Wildfires

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Participatory Research Workshop On Seasonal Prediction Of Hydroclimatic Extremes In The Greater Horn Of Africa, Tsegaye Tadesse, Deborah Bathke, Nicole Wall, Jacob Petr, Tonya Haigh

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Sixty participants, including experts from seven countries from the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) and project coinvestigators from the United States, met to discuss seasonal prediction of hydroclimatic extremes across the GHA, engage decision-makers in the assessment of information requirements, and use feedback to orient prediction models to address user needs. Perceptions of current climate change impacts in the GHA were assessed using pre- and postworkshop surveys. Participatory research was conducted through small group discussions on water, agriculture, impacts, and data sharing.

Facilitating The Use Of Drought Early Warning Information Through Interactions With Agricultural Stakeholders, Jason A. Otkin, Mark Shafer, Mark Svoboda, Brian Wardlow, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain, Jeffrey Basara

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Droughtscape, Summer 2015, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s column

New Drought Risk Management Research Center

Second quarter 2015 climate summary

Second quarter 2015 impacts summary

Caribbean region an innovator in drought early warning

Wind River Reservation tribes move toward drought planning

Ranchers, U.S. Forest Service, University of Arizona co-develop drought plans

Summer blockbuster from CoCoRaHS: Assessing Drought in the U.S

Western states drought coordinators meet

Umphlett Qci June 2015, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Drought Conditions

Water Supplies Recovering

Heavy Rains Cause Flooding

Agriculture Impacts

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Drougthscape, Spring 2015, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s column.

South Plains ranch workshops 3

First quarter drought summary

First quarter impacts summary

Gary’s favorite pond, D1-4

NDMC’s Haigh leads U2U pubs

SW Montana watersheds convene

Wind River monitors drought

Morocco’s new drought index

Northeast Brazil drought monitoring

EU’s drought initiative

U.S. Drought Monitor Forum

How Colorado tourism coped in 2012

Signed Peer Reviews As A Means To Improve Scholarly Publishing, Linwood H. Pendleton

Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics

Peer review is a necessary process with a long history of complaints, including over-solicitation of a small number of reviewers, delays, inadequate numbers of reviewers, and a lack of incentives to provide strong reviews or avoid reviews with little helpful information for the author. In the era of Web-based distribution of research, through working paper or project reports, anonymous peer reviews are much less likely. The Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics will use signed peer reviews and an open communication process among authors, reviewers, and editors. This approach, to be developed over time, should lead to stronger communication of …