Climate Commons^™

Integrating Deep Learning And Hydrodynamic Modeling To Improve The Great Lakes Forecast, Pengfei Xue, Aditya Wagh, Gangfeng Ma, Yilin Wang, Yongchao Yang, Tao Liu, Chenfu Huang

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

The Laurentian Great Lakes, one of the world’s largest surface freshwater systems, pose a modeling challenge in seasonal forecast and climate projection. While physics-based hydrodynamic modeling is a fundamental approach, improving the forecast accuracy remains critical. In recent years, machine learning (ML) has quickly emerged in geoscience applications, but its application to the Great Lakes hydrodynamic prediction is still in its early stages. This work is the first one to explore a deep learning approach to predicting spatiotemporal distributions of the lake surface temperature (LST) in the Great Lakes. Our study shows that the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network, …

High-Tide Floods And Storm Surges During Atmospheric Rivers On The Us West Coast, Christopher G. Piecuch, Sloan Coats, Sönke Dangendorf, Felix W. Landerer, J. T. Reager, Philip R. Thompson, Thomas Wahl

CCPO Publications

Amospheric rivers (ARs) effect inland hydrological impacts related to extreme precipitation. However, little is known about the possible coastal hazards associated with these storms. Here we elucidate high-tide floods (HTFs) and storm surges during ARs through a statistical analysis of data from the US West Coast during 1980-2016. HTFs and landfalling ARs co-occur more often than expected from random chance. Between 10%-63% of HTFs coincide with landfalling ARs, depending on location. However, only 2%-15% of ARs coincide with HTFs, suggesting that ARs typically must co-occur with anomalously high tides or mean sea levels to cause HTFs. Storm surges during ARs …

Evaluating Essential Processes And Forecast Requirements For Meteotsunami-Induced Coastal Flooding, Chenfu Huang, Eric Anderson, Yi Liu, Gangfeng Ma, Greg Mann, Pengfei Xue

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Meteotsunamis pose a unique threat to coastal communities and often lead to damage of coastal infrastructure, deluge of nearby property, and loss of life and injury. The Great Lakes are a known hot-spot of meteotsunami activity and serve as an important region for investigation of essential hydrodynamic processes and model forecast requirements in meteotsunami-induced coastal flooding. For this work, we developed an advanced hydrodynamic model and evaluate key model attributes and dynamic processes, including: (1) coastal model grid resolution and wetting and drying process in low-lying zones, (2) coastal infrastructure, including breakwaters and associated submerging and overtopping processes, (3) annual/seasonal …

Sea Surface Temperatures And Vertical Wind Shear As Precursors To Tropical Cyclone Activity In The Caribbean And An Expanding Main Developing Region, Keneshia Hibbert

Dissertations and Theses

Sea surface temperatures and vertical wind shear are essential to tropical cyclone formation. TCs need warm SSTs and low shear for genesis. Increasing SSTs and VWS changes influence storm development. This work analyzes SST and VWS trends for the Caribbean, surrounding region, and the Atlantic hurricane main developing region from 1982 to 2020. Storm intensity increases significantly during this period. Annual and seasonal trends show regional SSTs in the MDR are warming annually (0.0219°C yr^-1) and per season (0.0280°C yr^-1). Simultaneously, VWS decreases during the late rainfall season at 0.0556m/s yr^-1 in the MDR and …

Dynamic Modeling Of Inland Flooding And Storm Surge On Coastal Cities Under Climate Change Scenarios: Transportation Infrastructure Impacts In Norfolk, Virginia Usa As A Case Study, Yawen Shen, Navid Tahvildari, Mohamed M. Morsy, Chris Huxley, T. Donna Chen, Jonathan Lee Goodall

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Low-lying coastal cities across the world are vulnerable to the combined impact of rainfall and storm tide. However, existing approaches lack the ability to model the combined effect of these flood mechanisms, especially under climate change and sea level rise (SLR). Thus, to increase flood resilience of coastal cities, modeling techniques to improve the understanding and prediction of the combined effect of these flood hazards are critical. To address this need, this study presents a modeling system for assessing the combined flood impact on coastal cities under selected future climate scenarios that leverages ocean modeling with land surface modeling capable …

Hydrological Feedbacks On Peatland Ch4 Emission Under Warming And Elevated Co2: A Modeling Study, Fenghui Yuan, Yihui Wang, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Xiaoying Shi, Fengming Yuan, Thomas Brehme, Scott Bridgham, Jason Keller, Jeffrey M. Warren, Natalie A. Griffiths, Stephen D. Sebestyen, Paul J. Hanson, Peter E. Thornton, Xiaofeng Xu

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Peatland carbon cycling is critical for the land–atmosphere exchange of greenhouse gases, particularly under changing environments. Warming and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (eCO₂) concentrations directly enhance peatland methane (CH₄) emission, and indirectly affect CH₄ processes by altering hydrological conditions. An ecosystem model ELM-SPRUCE, the land model of the E3SM model, was used to understand the hydrological feedback mechanisms on CH₄ emission in a temperate peatland under a warming gradient and eCO₂ treatments. We found that the water table level was a critical regulator of hydrological feedbacks that affect peatland CH₄ dynamics; the …

Assessing Mangrove Wetland Structure And Function Regulated By Environmental Gradients Under Climate Change And Increasing Human Impacts: A Modeling Approach, Xiaochen Zhao

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

Mangroves are blue-carbon-rich wetlands that can potentially contribute to climate change mitigation policies. However, mangroves are increasingly impacted by both natural and human disturbances worldwide that require restoration and rehabilitation programs to advance their conservation. Yet, there are major knowledge gaps in our understanding of how local resources (nutrients), regulators (e.g., salinity) and hydroperiod gradients interact in controlling mangrove role as carbon sink or source at different spatiotemporal scales under increasing disturbance frequency and climate change.

Here, I developed a mass-balance-based hydrology model to estimate soil porewater salinity (PWS) in riverine mangroves along the Shark River estuary (SRE), South Florida; …

Assessing The Vegetation Condition Impacts Of The 2011 Drought Across The U.S. Southern Great Plains Using The Vegetation Drought Response Index (Vegdri), Tsegaye Tadesse, Brian D. Wardlow, Jesslyn F. Brown, Mark D. Svoboda, Michael J. Hayes, Brian Fuchs, Denise Gutzmer

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The vegetation drought response index (VegDRI), which combines traditional climate- and satellite-based approaches for assessing vegetation conditions, offers new insights into assessing the impacts of drought from local to regional scales. In 2011, the U.S. southern Great Plains, which includes Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico, was plagued by moderate to extreme drought that was intensified by an extended period of recordbreaking heat. The 2011 drought presented an ideal case study to evaluate the performance of VegDRI in characterizing developing drought conditions. Assessment of the spatiotemporal drought patterns represented in the VegDRI maps showed that the severity and patterns of the …

Droughtscape, Fall 2021, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

DroughtScape, Fall 2021

Recurrent Pattern Of Extreme Fire Weather In California, Rackhun Son, S-Y Simon Wang, Seung Hee Kim, Hyungjun Kim, Jee-Hoon Jeong, Jin-Ho Yoon

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Historical wildfire events in California have shown a tendency to occur every five to seven years with a rapidly increasing tendency in recent decades. This oscillation is evident in multiple historical climate records, some more than a century long, and appears to be continuing. Analysis shows that this 5–7 year oscillation is linked to a sequence of anomalous large-scale climate patterns with an eastward propagation in both the ocean and atmosphere. While warmer temperature emerges from the northern central Pacific to the west coast of California, La Niña pattern develops simultaneously, implying that the lifecycle of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation …

A Typology Of Drought Decision Making: Synthesizing Across Cases To Understand Drought Preparedness And Response Actions, Amanda E. Cravens, Jen Henderson, Jack Friedman, Nina Burkardt, Ashley E. Cooper, Tonya Haigh, Michael Hayes, Jamie Mcenvoy, Stephanie Paladino, Adam K. Wilke, Hailey Wilmer

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is an inescapable reality in many regions, including much of the western United States. With climate change, droughts are predicted to intensify and occur more frequently, making the imperative for drought management even greater. Many diverse actors – including private landowners, business owners, scientists, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and managers and policymakers within tribal, local, state, and federal government agencies – play multiple, often overlapping roles in preparing for and responding to drought. Managing water is, of course, one of the most important roles that humans play in both mitigating and responding to droughts; but, focusing only on “water managers” …

Droughtscape, Summer 2021, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

DroughtScape, Summer 2021

Modeling And Measuring Water Level Fluctuations In The Greenland Ice Sheet: How Moulin Life Cycle And Shape Can Inform Us On The Subglacial Drainage System., Celia Trunz

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

In the ablation zone of land terminating sectors of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS), water pressures at the bed control ice motion variability on diurnal and seasonal timescales. During the melt season, large volumes of surface meltwater access the ice-bed interface through moulins.Moulins are large vertical shafts that connect the supraglacial and subglacial drainage systems. Moulins form when a crevasse intersects a surface meltwater source that can drive hydrofracture to the bed of the ice sheet. Upon reaching the bed, meltwater can establish and sustain an efficient, channelized drainage system. Due to the technical impossibility of physically exploring underwater passages …

Development Of A Flash Drought Intensity Index, Jason A. Otkin, Yafang Zhong, Eric D. Hunt, Jordan I. Christian, Jeffrey B. Basara, Hanh Nguyen, Matthew C. Wheeler, Trent W. Ford, Andrew Hoell, Mark Svoboda, Martha C. Anderson

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Flash droughts are characterized by a period of rapid intensification over sub-seasonal time scales that culminates in the rapid emergence of new or worsening drought impacts. This study presents a new flash drought intensity index (FDII) that accounts for both the unusually rapid rate of drought intensification and its resultant severity. The FDII framework advances our ability to characterize flash drought because it provides a more complete measure of flash drought intensity than existing classification methods that only consider the rate of intensification. The FDII is computed using two terms measuring the maximum rate of intensification (FD_INT) and average drought …

Water Quality Threats, Perceptions Of Climate Change And Behavioral Responses Among Farmers In The Ethiopian Rift Valley, Tewodros R. Godebo, Marc A. Jeuland, Christopher J. Paul, Dagnachew L. Belachew, Peter G. Mccornick

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

This work aims to assess water quality for irrigated agriculture, alongside perceptions and adaptations of farmers to climate change in the Main Ethiopian Rift (MER). Climate change is expected to cause a rise in temperature and variability in rainfall in the region, reducing surface water availability and raising dependence on groundwater. The study data come from surveys with 147 farmers living in the Ziway–Shala basin and water quality assessments of 162 samples from groundwater wells and surface water. Most groundwater samples were found to be unsuitable for long term agricultural use due to their high salinity and sodium adsorption ratio, …

Multi-Dimensional Drought Assessment In Abbay/Upper Blue Nile Basin: The Importance Of Shared Management And Regional Coordination Efforts For Mitigation, Yared Bayissa, Semu Moges, Assefa Melesse, Tsegaye Tadesse, Anteneh Z. Abiy, Abeyou Worqlul

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is one of the least understood and complex natural hazards often characterized by a significant decrease in water availability for a prolonged period. It can be manifested in one or more forms as meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and/or socio-economic drought. The overarching objective of this study is to demonstrate and characterize the different forms of droughts and to assess the multidimensional nature of drought in the Abbay/ Upper Blue Nile River (UBN) basin and its national and regional scale implications. In this study, multiple drought indices derived from in situ and earth observation-based hydro-climatic variables were used. The meteorological drought …

Droughtscape, Spring 2021, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

DroughtScape, Spring 2021

Investigating Decadal Changes Of Multiple Hydrological Products And Land-Cover Changes In The Mediterranean Region For 2009–2018, Wenzhao Li, Sachi Perera, Erik Linstead, Rejoice Thomas, Hesham El-Askary, Thomas Piechota, Daniele Struppa

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Land-cover change is a critical concern due to its climatic, ecological, and socioeconomic consequences. In this study, we used multiple variables including precipitation, vegetation index, surface soil moisture, and evapotranspiration obtained from different satellite sources to study their association with land-cover changes in the Mediterranean region. Both observational and modeling data were used for climatology and correlation analysis. Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) were used to extract surface soil moisture and evapotranspiration data. Intercomparing the results of FLDAS and GLDAS suggested that FLDAS data had better …

Exploring Viirs Continuity With Modis In An Expedited Capability For Monitoring Drought-Related Vegetation Conditions, Trenton D. Benedict, Jesslyn F. Brown, Stephen P. Boyte, Daniel M. Howard, Brian A. Fuchs, Brian D. Wardlow, Tsegaye Tadesse, Kirk A. Evenson

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Vegetation has been effectively monitored using remote sensing time-series vegetation index (VI) data for several decades. Drought monitoring has been a common application with algorithms tuned to capturing anomalous temporal and spatial vegetation patterns. Drought stress models, such as the Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI), often use VIs like the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The EROS expedited Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrora-diometer (eMODIS)-based, 7-day NDVI composites are integral to the VegDRI. As MODIS satellite platforms (Terra and Aqua) approach mission end, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) presents an alternate NDVI source, with daily collection, similar band passes, and …

Exploring Viirs Continuity With Modis In An Expedited Capability For Monitoring Drought-Related Vegetation Conditions, Trenton D. Benedict, Jesslyn F. Brown, Stephen P. Boyte, Daniel M. Howard, Brian A. Fuchs, Brian D. Wardlow, Tsegaye Tadesse, Kirk A. Evenson

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Vegetation has been effectively monitored using remote sensing time-series vegetation index (VI) data for several decades. Drought monitoring has been a common application with algorithms tuned to capturing anomalous temporal and spatial vegetation patterns. Drought stress models, such as the Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI), often use VIs like the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The EROS expedited Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrora-diometer (eMODIS)-based, 7-day NDVI composites are integral to the VegDRI. As MODIS satellite platforms (Terra and Aqua) approach mission end, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) presents an alternate NDVI source, with daily collection, similar band passes, and …

The Drought Monitor Comes Of Age, Brad Rippey, Brian Fuchs, David Simeral, Deborah J. Bathke, Richard R. Heim Jr., Mark Svoboda

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The 20th century featured immense scientific discoveries and advances. Astrophysics gained Einstein’s life-altering theory of relativity, opening the door to nuclear weaponry and the mind-bending Big Bang theory. The medical field achieved stunning success in suppressing or vanquishing a host of deadly diseases, including polio and smallpox. And through advances in computing technology, meteorological forecasting moved from back-of-the-envelope calculations to supercomputers. However, drought monitoring fell behind the curve of scientific advancement. Not until 1965, when the United States Department of Commerce published Wayne C. Palmer’s “Research Paper No. 45: Meteorological Drought,” was there even a complex mathematical definition of drought. …

Flash Drought Onset Over The Contiguous United States: Sensitivity Of Inventories And Trends To Quantitative Definitions, Mahmoud Osman, Bejamin F. Zaitchik, Hamada S. Badr, Jordan I. Christian, Tsegaye Tadesse, Jason A. Otkin, Martha C. Anderson

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The term “flash drought” is frequently invoked to describe droughts that develop rapidly over a relatively short timescale. Despite extensive and growing research on flash drought processes, predictability, and trends, there is still no standard quantitative definition that encompasses all flash drought characteristics and pathways. Instead, diverse definitions have been proposed, supporting wide-ranging studies of flash drought but creating the potential for confusion as to what the term means and how to characterize it. Use of different definitions might also lead to different conclusions regarding flash drought frequency, predictability, and trends under climate change. In this study, we compared five …

Coastal Watershed Monitoring And Management: Geomorphology, Geochemistry, And Hydrologic Modeling Of Los Peñasquitos Creek, Ca, Ravleen Khalsa-Basra

Theses

Rivers in semi-arid climates are directly influenced by local geographic and hydrologic conditions and impacted by modifications to hydrology via urbanization. Changes can influence erosion, morphology, habitat sustainability, and watershed health. In highly urbanized southern California coastal regions, these rare open spaces provide vital ecosystem services. Los Peñasquitos Creek in San Diego County is one such watershed. Using stream surveying and laboratory methods we quantified channel characteristics, grain size distribution, total metal concentration [M], organic carbon (%OC), and phosphate to longitudinally characterize the creek for improved management. Results identified three distinct reaches in the watershed (upper, middle, lower). Downstream, depth …

Valuation Of Drought Information: Understanding The Value Of The Us Drought Monitor In Land Management, Tingting Liu, Richard Krop, Tonya Haigh, Kelly Helm Smith, Mark D. Svoboda

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Droughts affect recreation and tourism, grazing, forests, and timber, and can have important indirect effects for the ecosystems and species that rely on water. Despite its importance, the effect of drought in the land management sector is less understood than in other water-intensive sectors, such as agriculture and public water supplies. This study presents the first-ever estimates of the economic valuation of the information provided by the U.S. Drought Monitor using the avoided cost method. These estimates are based on the time and labor saved by using the U.S. Drought Monitor rather than compiling drought-related information from other sources, or …

Ranchers’ Use Of Drought Contingency Plans In Protective Action Decision Making, Tonya Haigh, Michael Hayes, Jolene Smyth, Linda Stalker Prokopy, Charles A. Francis, Mark Burbach

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought contingency planning is an increasingly common tool in the ranchers’ climate adaptation toolboxes, but its effect on drought response has not yet been evaluated. We use cognitive models of protective action decision making and planning to explore the effects of having a drought plan on the use of drought early warning information and drought response (and timing). Results of a cross-sectional, probability-based survey of livestock producers affected by a 2016 flash-drought are used to describe the characteristics of operations with drought plans and provide evidence of whether having a plan predicts drought information use and response. While larger operations …

Whose Ground Truth Is It? Harvesting Lessons From Missouri’S 2018 Bumper Crop Of Drought Observations, Kelly Helm Smith, Mark E. Burbach, Michael Hayes, Patrick Guinan, Andrew Tyre, Brian Fuchs, Tonya Haigh, Mark Svoboda

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought-related decision-making and policy should go beyond numeric hydrometeorological data to incorporate information on how drought affects people, livelihoods, and ecosystems. The effects of drought are nested within environmental and human systems, and relevant data may not exist in readily accessible form. For example, drought may reduce forage growth, compounded by both late-season freezes and management decisions. An effort to gather crowdsourced drought observations in Missouri in 2018 yielded a much higher number of observations than did previous related efforts. Here we examine 1) the interests, circumstances, history, and recruitment messaging that coincided to produce a high number of reports …

Tweetdrought: A Deep-Learning Drought Impacts Recognizer Based On Twitter Data, Beichen Zhang, Frank Schilder, Kelly Helm Smith, Michael Hayes, Sherri Harms, Tsegaye Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Acquiring a better understanding of drought impacts becomes increasingly vital under a warming climate. Traditional drought indices describe mainly biophysical variables and not impacts on social, economic, and environmental systems. We utilized natural language processing and bidirectional encoder representation from Transformers (BERT) based transfer learning to fine-tune the model on the data from the news-based Drought Impact Report (DIR) and then apply it to recognize seven types of drought impacts based on the filtered Twitter data from the United States. Our model achieved a satisfying macro-F1 score of 0.89 on the DIR test set. The model was then applied to …

Developing A Strategy For The National Coordinated Soil Moisture Monitoring Network, Michael H. Cosh, Todd G. Caldwell, C. Bruce Baker, John D. Bolten, Nathan Edwards, Peter Goble, Heather Hofman, Tyson E. Ochsner, Steven Quiring, Charles Schalk, Marina Skumanich, Mark D. Svoboda, Mary E. Woloszyn

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Soil moisture is a critical land surface variable, affecting a wide variety of climatological, agricultural, and hydrological processes. Determining the current soil moisture status is possible via a variety of methods, including in situ monitoring, remote sensing, and numerical modeling. Although all of these approaches are rapidly evolving, there is no cohesive strategy or framework to integrate these diverse information sources to develop and disseminate coordinated national soil moisture products that will improve our ability to understand climate variability. The National Coordinated Soil Moisture Monitoring Network initiative has developed a national strategy for network coordination with NOAA’s National Integrated Drought …

Evaluation Of Remotely Sensed Precipitation Estimates From The Nasa Power Project For Drought Detection Over Jordan, Muhammad Rasool Al‑Kilani, Michel Rahbeh, Jawad Al‑Bakri, Tsegaye Tadesse, Cody Knutson

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Droughts can cause devastating impacts on water and land resources and therefore monitoring these events forms an integral part of planning. The most common approach for detecting drought events and assessing their intensity is use of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which requires abundant precipitation records at good spatial distribution. This may restrict SPI usage in many regions around the world, particularly in areas with limited numbers of ground meteorological stations. Therefore, the use of remotely sensed derived data of precipitation can contribute to drought monitoring. In this study, remotely sensed precipitation estimates from the POWER/Agroclimatology archive of NASA and …

A Model-Based Exploratory Study Of Sulfur Dioxide Dispersions From Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations In The Southeastern United States, Jesse Winchester, Rezaul Mahmood, William Rodgers, Philip J. Silva, Nanh Lovanh, Joshua D. Durkee, John Loughrin

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

In the Southeastern U. S. there are Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs) that emit a variety of gases, including SO₂. Sulfur is emitted as reduced sulfur compounds and can react in the atmosphere to produce SO₂. It is expected that the concentra­tion and spread of SO₂ emissions from these sources would differ between wet and dry periods. In this research, SO₂ emissions from locations representing CAFOs and its dispersion over the south­eastern U.S. were simulated through sensitivity experiments using the Weather Research and Forecasting-Chemistry (WRF- Chem) model. Simulations were performed for dry periods and …