An Integrative Modeling Framework To Evaluate Wheat Production Systems: Fusarium Head Blight,
2014
Universidade de Passo Fundo
An Integrative Modeling Framework To Evaluate Wheat Production Systems: Fusarium Head Blight, Willingthon Pavan, José Maurício Cunha Fernandes, Alexandre Lazzaretti, Josué Toebe, Jorge Luis Bavaresco, Alex C. Ruane, Rodrigo Yoiti Tsukahara
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
This paper describes a practical, integrated, web-based and user friendly analysis tool for crop model users that provides quality control of input data, tracks user selections in model parameterization, and enables visual analysis of model outcomes using a single graphical user interface. This allows the user to undertake numerous steps in crop modeling and analysis in a seamless and integrated environment. The analysis and visualization components of the system were enabled utilizing R (pl/r) and the robustness of the underlying data structures and coupling point between crop and disease models were achieved through use of PostgreSQL database management system. The …
Applications Of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (Qmra) To Regulatory Decision Making,
2014
EOA, Inc.
Applications Of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (Qmra) To Regulatory Decision Making, Adam W. Olivieri, Edmund Y. Seto, Richard E. Danielson, Jeffrey A. Soller, Robert C. Cooper
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Intelligent risk-based decision-making requires a clear and transparent framework, and as part of that framework, includes a tractable analysis and balancing of various qualities of information from numerous sources. The purpose of this paper is to provide a number of examples on the application of QMRA, and how the information was utilized to aid and facilitate decision-making as part of the regulatory process for evaluating water recycling and municipal treatment plant discharges.
Feedback Versus Uncertainty,
2014
Delft University of Technology
Feedback Versus Uncertainty, Ronald R. P. Van Nooijen, Markus Hrachowitz, Alla G. Kolechkina
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Even without uncertainty about the model structure or parameters, the output of a hydrological model run still contains several sources of uncertainty. These are: measurement errors affecting the input, the transition from continuous time and space to discrete time and space, which causes loss of information about the input, discretization of the model equations resulting in errors due to the discretization scheme and the use of finite precision calculations in model evaluation. Interval analysis can provide upper bounds on the output error due to all of these sources. This paper focuses on tracking uncertainty about input values and the effects …
Kernel Density Independence Sampling Based Monte Carlo Scheme (Kismcs) For Inverse Hydrological Modeling,
2014
Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
Kernel Density Independence Sampling Based Monte Carlo Scheme (Kismcs) For Inverse Hydrological Modeling, Mojtaba Shafiei, Shervan Gharari, Saket Pande, Sandjai Bhulai
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Posterior sampling methods are increasingly being used to describe parameter and model predictive uncertainty in hydrologic modelling. This paper proposes an alternative to random walk chains (such as DREAM-zs). We propose a sampler based on independence chains with an embedded feature of standardized importance weights based on Kernel density estimates. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm is proposed with Metropolis-Hastings (M-H) updates using an independence sampler. The independence sampler ensures that candidate observations are drawn independently of the current state of a chain, thereby ensuring efficient exploration of the target distribution. The M-H acceptance-rejection criterion is used to sample …
Apex-Cute: An Auto-Calibration And Uncertainty Analysis Tool For The Apex Model,
2014
Blackland Research & Extension Center, Texas A&M AgriLife Research
Apex-Cute: An Auto-Calibration And Uncertainty Analysis Tool For The Apex Model, Xiuying Wang, Haw Yen
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender - auto-Calibration and UncerTainty Estimator (APEX-CUTE) was developed as an open-source tool which enhances the accessibility for APEX users to conduct potentially tedious calibration work on the APEX model. The role of uncertainty analysis should be taken as an independent supporting package to extend the capability in further analytical purposes. This version of APEX-CUTE incorporates relevant functions of uncertainty analysis flexibly. Users have options to include designated uncertainty sources such as input and/or measurement errors during the calibration process. APEX-CUTE is not only the comprehensive package in performing model calibration on APEX, but it can …
Hydroshare: Advancing Collaboration Through Hydrologic Data And Model Sharing,
2014
Utah State University
Hydroshare: Advancing Collaboration Through Hydrologic Data And Model Sharing, David G. Tarboton, Ray Idaszak, Jeffery S. Horsburgh, Jeff Heard, Dan Ames, Jonathan L. Goodall, Larry Band, Venkatesh Merwade, Alva Couch, Jennifer Arrigo, Richard Hooper, David Valentine, David Maidment
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
HydroShare is an online, collaborative system being developed for open sharing of hydrologic data and models. The goal of HydroShare is to enable hydrology researchers to easily discover and access hydrologic data and models, retrieve them to their desktop for local analysis and perform analyses in a distributed computing environment that may include grid, cloud or high performance computing. Users may also share and publish outcomes (data, results or models) into HydroShare, using the system as a collaboration platform. HydroShare is expanding the data sharing capability of the CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System by broadening the classes of data accommodated. HydroShare …
Plug And Play Component Modeling - The Csdms2.0 Approach,
2014
University of Colorado
Plug And Play Component Modeling - The Csdms2.0 Approach, James P. Syvitski
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The CSDMS2.0 focus is on developing a software modelling environment that offers the earth and ocean communities products to enable easier penetration into the world of high performance computing, plug-and-play component modelling, and access to vetted open source surface-dynamics models. Protocols and standards define modelling interfaces, standard names, service components, and DOIs labelling.
Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Of Freshwater Impacted By Animal Fecal Material,
2014
Soller Environmental
Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Of Freshwater Impacted By Animal Fecal Material, Jeffrey Soller, Timothy Bartrand, Marirosa Molina, Gene Whelan, Mary Schoen, Nicholas Ashbolt
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
We evaluated the potential for human illness from a hypothetical recreational exposure to freshwater that was impacted by land-applied, agricultural animal fecal material. The scenario included 1) fresh cattle manure, pig slurry, or chicken litter (fecal material) land-applied, adjacent to a freshwater waterbody at standard agronomic rates (based on nutrient management); 2) fecal materials containing fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) and pathogens of public health concern (reference pathogens) at levels reported in peer-reviewed literature; 3) FIB and reference pathogens mobilized via runoff at rates estimated from our rainfall simulation experiments; 4) primary recreational contact (e.g., swimming) occurring in undiluted runoff at …
Accounting For Groups Of Animals In Qmra Of Recreational Waters,
2014
Land and Environment, AgResearch Ltd, Invermay Research Centre
Accounting For Groups Of Animals In Qmra Of Recreational Waters, Richard W. Muirhead, Vanessa M. Cave
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The development of QMRA for recreational waters often involves assessing the inputs from multiple sources, including human sewage, agricultural sources and wild animals. The concentrations of microorganisms in faeces from individual animals are highly variable leading to a broad spectrum of risk. When modelling the load of faecal microbes from a group of animals, based on data from individuals, the group distribution must be correctly accounted for. A further complication to QMRA is that pathogen concentrations in faeces have a high proportion of non-detects making them difficult to model using standard mathematical distributions. Moreover, when only limited concentration data are …
Slow Or Rapid Collapse? Transients Between Stable States As A Source Of Uncertainty In Predicting Ecosystem Shifts,
2014
Utrecht University
Slow Or Rapid Collapse? Transients Between Stable States As A Source Of Uncertainty In Predicting Ecosystem Shifts, Derek Karssenberg
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
In this study I explore the rate of change during the collapse of a vegetation-soil system on a hillslope from a vegetated state to an unvegetated, bare-soil, state. From a distributed, stochastic model coupling hydrology, vegetation, weathering and wash erosion, I derive two differential equations describing the interaction between the vegetation and the soil. Two stable states--vegetated and bare--are identified by means of analytical investigation, and it is shown that the change between these two states is a critical transition as indicated by hysteresis. Surprisingly, transitions between these states can either unfold rapidly, over a few years, or gradually, occurring …
Towards An Interoperable And Distributed E-Infrastructure For Hydro-Meteorology: The Drihm Project,
2014
IMATI-CNR
Towards An Interoperable And Distributed E-Infrastructure For Hydro-Meteorology: The Drihm Project, Antonella Galizia, Daniele D’Agostino, Alfonso Quarti, Gabriele Zereik, Luca Roverelli, Emanuele Danovaro, Andrea Clematis, Fabio Delogu, Antonio Parodi, Quillon Harpham, Bert Jagers, Luis Garrote, Ljiljana Dekic, Vladimir Dimitrijevic, Evelyne Richard, Olivier Caumont
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Predicting weather and climate and its impacts on the environment, including hazards such as floods and landslides, is one of the main challenges of the 21st century with significant societal and economic implications. To advance the state of the art in forecasting extreme events, an effective collaboration with the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) scientific community is necessary to address challenges in combining meteorological, hydrological, hydraulic and impact observations and modelling tools seemingly and in a platform that allows scenario building and decision-support. With these issues in mind, the Dis- tributed Research Infrastructure for Hydro-Meteorology (DRIHM) project aims at setting …
A Spatial Planning Tool For The Evaluation Of The Effect Of Hydrological And Land-Use Changes On Ecosystem Services,
2014
UNESCO-IHE Institute of Water Education
A Spatial Planning Tool For The Evaluation Of The Effect Of Hydrological And Land-Use Changes On Ecosystem Services, Leon Mugwiza, Seleshi Yalew, Johannes Van Der Kwast, Masoom Hamdard, Willem Van Deursen
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Many point-based models have been designed to simulate hydrology, gas flux, nutrient dynamics, and/or plant growth processes at a single point on the landscape. However, these environmental processes are known to be spatially variable. Simulations at different spatial locations therefore require adjustment of model input parameters to reflect specific conditions at each location. Increased availability of geospatial data sets, including remote sensing images, land cover maps, digital soil surveys, crop yield maps, and vehicle-based plant or soil maps, can support spatial model parameterization efforts. However, tools are needed for processing geospatial data layers and interfacing the data with the simulation …
Silvio, Modelling Social Vulnerability Under A Local Perspective,
2014
Hamburg University
Silvio, Modelling Social Vulnerability Under A Local Perspective, Thaís López-Inojosa, Martina Neuburger, Sebastian Medina-Plascencia, Framklin Davila
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The objective of this research is to develop and to model an indicator of social vulnerability as part of a multidimensional, multivariable and non linear process. Social vulnerability can be considered as a complex system, in which many relationships in society and environment can be described by considering individual and structural factors. Numerous studies provide tools to analyze and revise social systems but these tools were developed generalizing and overviewing the relationship among many intermediate realities, for another type of systems, more formalized and conceptualized. Social systems do not have this classical formalization. The development of the SocIaL Vulnerability I …
Reproducible Research Within The Datanet Federation Consortium,
2014
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Reproducible Research Within The Datanet Federation Consortium, Reagan W. Moore, Arcot Rajasekar
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
The DataNet Federation Consortium (DFC) is an NSF funded project that provides cyberinfrastructure for federating data management systems into a collaboration environment. Researchers are able to build a shared collection, apply analysis workflows, and manage the analysis results. The shared collections may span storage resources at multiple institutions, and multiple types of data management systems. The analysis workflows may include staging of files to remote compute platforms, and in-place analysis at the remote data storage location. The workflows can be captured as shareable objects, with automatic capture of input files, input parameters, and output files. A key feature is support …
Controls On Hydrologic Partitioning: Using A Mechanistic Model For Comparative Hydrology Across Ungauged Sub-Catchments In A Mountain Headwater Basin,
2014
Duke University
Controls On Hydrologic Partitioning: Using A Mechanistic Model For Comparative Hydrology Across Ungauged Sub-Catchments In A Mountain Headwater Basin, Christa Kelleher, Thorsten Wagener, Francesca Pianosi, Brian Mcglynn
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Headwater streams are the most abundant portion of the river network but the least monitored. As such, we have a limited understanding of headwater stream behaviours and how they are influenced by catchment properties such as topography, geology, and vegetation. Given the lack of runoff monitoring within headwater streams, improving an understanding of how catchment properties influence hydrologic behaviour is necessary for transferring information from instrumented areas to ungauged sites. We utilize this concept to understand physical controls on similarities and differences in hydrologic behaviour for five adjacent sub-catchments located in the Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest in central Montana with …
Estimating The Benefits Of Early Warning Systems In Reducing Urban Flood Risk To People: A Spatially Explicit Bayesian Model.,
2014
BC3 Basque Centre for Climate Change
Estimating The Benefits Of Early Warning Systems In Reducing Urban Flood Risk To People: A Spatially Explicit Bayesian Model., Stefano Balbi, Ferdinando Villa, Vahid Mojthaed, Carlo Giupponi
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Flood risk assessment usually focuses on damages to material objects (indirect tangible costs) and downplays the broader socio-economic aspects of flood-prone systems. Such aspects are crucial for an accurate assessment of risk to human receptors and of the benefits of non-structural measures. For example, an early warning system (EWS) that reduces the amount of direct tangible costs only partially could: (i) save lives (direct intangible costs); (ii) help avoid long-lasting trauma (indirect intangible costs); (iii) prevent post-disaster evacuation costs (indirect tangible costs). We present a methodology to assess flood risk to people, which integrates people's vulnerability and ability to cushion …
Overview And Application Of The Model Optimization, Uncertainty, And Sensitivity Analysis (Mouse) Toolbox,
2014
USDA-ARS-NPA, Agricultural Systems Research Unit
Overview And Application Of The Model Optimization, Uncertainty, And Sensitivity Analysis (Mouse) Toolbox, James C. Ascough Ii, Christian Fischer, Nathan Lighthart, Olaf David, Timothy R. Green, Sven Kralisch
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
For several decades, optimization and sensitivity/uncertainty analysis of environmental models has been the subject of extensive research. Although much progress has been made and sophisticated methods developed, the growing complexity of environmental models to represent real world systems makes it increasingly difficult to fully comprehend model behavior, sensitivities and uncertainties. This paper provides an overview of the Model Optimization, Uncertainty, and SEnsitivity Analysis (MOUSE) software application, an open-source, Java-based toolbox of visual and numerical analysis components for the evaluation of environmental models. MOUSE is based on the OPTAS model calibration system developed for the Jena Adaptable Modeling System framework, is …
Amadeus: A System For Monitoring Water Quality Parameters And Predicting Contaminant Paths,
2014
Institute of Technology, University of Washington
Amadeus: A System For Monitoring Water Quality Parameters And Predicting Contaminant Paths, Abdeltawab M. Hendawi, David Hazel, Joel Larson, Yiru Li, Dwaine Trummert, Mohamed Ali, Ankur Teredesai
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Managing the water quality in an urban environment is extremely challenging. While it flows, the water picks up pollutants such as lawn care chemicals, oil, and pet waste bacteria. In fact, topography plays a factor in where water runoff goes. However, there are many other factors, such as urban density, impermeable surface coverage, weather events and tidal patterns which all have the potential to impact not only the final destination of a particular pollutant but also the rate of travel along the route. In this paper, we propose a system, named AMADEUS (Azure Marketplace of Applications for Diverse Environmental Use …
Socio-Economic Regional Risk Assessment (Serra) Application To Flood Risk In The Vipacco Basin (North-East Italy),
2014
Cà Foscari University of Venice
Socio-Economic Regional Risk Assessment (Serra) Application To Flood Risk In The Vipacco Basin (North-East Italy), Claudia De Luca, Vahid Mojtahed, Animesh Gain, Stefano Balbi, Michele Ferri, Carlo Giupponi
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
According to EEA (European Environmental Agency), flood is the most dangerous natural hazard in Europe in terms of economic losses. The KULTURisk Project (EU FP7) has developed a novel methodology for evaluating the integrated benefits of risk prevention of water related natural hazards: SERRA (i.e. Socio-Economic Regional Risk Assessment). The proposed methodology enhances the traditional flood risk assessment. Several case studies across Europe allowed for the consolidation, validation, and refinement of SERRA. This paper presents the results of its application to assess the benefits derived from the installation of an Early Warning System in Vipacco river basin in Friuli Venezia …
Investigating Parameter Sensitivity For Management In Snow-Driven Watersheds,
2014
University of Colorado Boulder
Investigating Parameter Sensitivity For Management In Snow-Driven Watersheds, Elizabeth Houle, Joseph Kasprzyk
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Recent projections of environmental change have shown possible variation to temperature and precipitation patterns due to climate change. In snowmelt-dominated watersheds, adapting to such environmental changes requires a detailed understanding of hydrological processes in addition to historical snow cover and streamflow data. Snow models are often incorporated as an additional component of hydrological modeling studies that inform research and operations management. However, previous research and parameter estimation approaches using snow models assume that parameters have a single optimal value and that each parameter is sensitive. This paper demonstrates that an improved understanding of snow model parameter sensitivity can aid in …
