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Articles 151 - 180 of 191

Full-Text Articles in Demography, Population, and Ecology

How Many Years Of Life Could Be Saved If Malaria Were Eliminated From A Hyperendemic Area Of Northern Ghana?, Ayaga A. Bawah, Fred N. Binka Jan 2005

How Many Years Of Life Could Be Saved If Malaria Were Eliminated From A Hyperendemic Area Of Northern Ghana?, Ayaga A. Bawah, Fred N. Binka

Poverty, Gender, and Youth

For some time, Chinese government policies have treated rural and urban areas very differently, and a by-product of China’s rapid development seems to be an even greater differentiation between urban and rural social and economic life. Over the next several decades, in part because of rapid fertility declines and in part as a result of mortality declines at older ages, China and other developing countries will experience enormous increases in the proportion of older adults and the proportion of the “oldest-old.” It is reasonable to expect that these age structure changes will alter the provision of health care, making an …


Popular Perceptions Of Emerging Influences On Mortality And Longevity In Bangladesh And West Bengal, Sajeda Amin, Alaka Malwade Basu Jan 2004

Popular Perceptions Of Emerging Influences On Mortality And Longevity In Bangladesh And West Bengal, Sajeda Amin, Alaka Malwade Basu

Poverty, Gender, and Youth

Although new environmental and pathological threats to human survival and longevity have been documented, relatively little is known about how these threats are perceived in the popular imagination. During fieldwork in rural Bangladesh and West Bengal, India, researching the changing costs of and motivations for reproduction, the authors included survey questions on respondents’ perceptions of changing mortality. Child-mortality levels were perceived to have fallen drastically in recent times, but for the middle-aged and the elderly, the past was seen as a better time in terms of health and survival. The decline in adult health is attributed to environmental deterioration and …


Gender Differences In Time Use Among Adolescents In Developing Countries: Implications Of Rising School Enrollment Rates, Amanda Ritchie, Cynthia B. Lloyd, Monica J. Grant Jan 2004

Gender Differences In Time Use Among Adolescents In Developing Countries: Implications Of Rising School Enrollment Rates, Amanda Ritchie, Cynthia B. Lloyd, Monica J. Grant

Poverty, Gender, and Youth

Researchers at the Population Council have been involved in the collection of data on time use from adolescents in India, Kenya, Pakistan, and South Africa. Three questions are addressed in this working paper: (1) How does time use change during the transition to adulthood? (2) Does gender role differentiation intensify during the transition? (3) Does school attendance attenuate gender differences? The data document differences in time use patterns between students and nonstudents. Although female adolescent students still work longer hours than male adolescent students, the gender division of labor that typically develops during adolescence is greatly attenuated among students when …


Long-Range Trends In Adult Mortality: Models And Projection Methods, John Bongaarts Jan 2004

Long-Range Trends In Adult Mortality: Models And Projection Methods, John Bongaarts

Poverty, Gender, and Youth

This Population Council working paper has two objectives: (1) to test a new version of the logistic model for the pattern of change over time in age-specific adult mortality rates, and (2) to develop a new method for projecting future trends in adult mortality. A test of the goodness-of-fit of the logistic model for the force of mortality indicates that its slope parameter is nearly constant over time. This finding suggests a variant of the model that is called the shifting logistic model. A new projection method based on the shifting mortality model is proposed and compared with the widely …


Aging, Health, And Public Policy: Demographic And Economic Perspectives, Linda J. Waite Jan 2004

Aging, Health, And Public Policy: Demographic And Economic Perspectives, Linda J. Waite

Population Policy and Demographic Analysis

In this supplement to Population and Development Review, distinguished social scientists bring a variety of disciplinary perspectives—economic, demographic, epidemiological—to bear on the subject of population aging, looking particularly to likely future trends and their economic consequences. Among the questions investigated: What can be said about the future course of longevity, given that research on both historical and contemporary populations belies the existence of a biologically fixed maximum for the human life span? To what extent do genetic factors contribute to the development of major chronic diseases of later life, such as Alzheimer’s? How can we unravel the strong positive …


Population Aging And The Rising Cost Of Public Pensions, John Bongaarts Jan 2004

Population Aging And The Rising Cost Of Public Pensions, John Bongaarts

Poverty, Gender, and Youth

Rapid population aging is raising concerns about the sustainability of public pension systems in high-income countries. The first part of this study identifies the four factors that determine trends in public pension expenditures: population aging, pension benefit levels, the mean age at retirement, and the labor force participation rate. The second part presents projections to 2050 of the impact of demographic trends on public pension expenditures in the absence of changes in pension benefits, labor force participation, and age at retirement. These projections demonstrate that current trends are unsustainable, because without reforms population aging will produce an unprecedented and harmful …


Trends And Transitions In Children's Coresidence With Older Adults In Beijing Municipality, Zachary Zimmer, Xianghua Fang, Toshiko Kaneda, Zhe Tang, Julia Kwong Jan 2004

Trends And Transitions In Children's Coresidence With Older Adults In Beijing Municipality, Zachary Zimmer, Xianghua Fang, Toshiko Kaneda, Zhe Tang, Julia Kwong

Poverty, Gender, and Youth

The reduction in family size in China and concurrent social and economic change are raising concerns that traditional sources of support may be eroding. This Population Council working paper paper examines a) whether rates of coresidence between older adults and their adult children in the Beijing municipality of China have been declining, and b) the determinants of coresidence and coresidence transitions. Results suggest that family support structures for the elderly, when they are facilitated through coresidence, remain basically intact, particularly for those who require the greatest amount of support. Further assessment is required to elucidate the effects of availability, need, …


Population Aging And The Rising Cost Of Public Pensions [Arabic], John Bongaarts Jan 2004

Population Aging And The Rising Cost Of Public Pensions [Arabic], John Bongaarts

Poverty, Gender, and Youth

Rapid population aging is raising concerns about the sustainability of public pension systems in high-income countries. The first part of this study identifies the four factors that determine trends in public pension expenditures: population aging, pension benefit levels, the mean age at retirement, and the labor force participation rate. The second part presents projections to 2050 of the impact of demographic trends on public pension expenditures in the absence of changes in pension benefits, labor force participation, and age at retirement. These projections demonstrate that current trends are unsustainable, because without reforms population aging will produce an unprecedented and harmful …


Life Span: Evolutionary, Ecological, And Demographic Perspectives, James R. Carey, Shripad Tuljapurkar Jan 2003

Life Span: Evolutionary, Ecological, And Demographic Perspectives, James R. Carey, Shripad Tuljapurkar

Population Policy and Demographic Analysis

The human life span continues to increase even in already low-mortality populations—with major implications for societies and economies. Classical evolutionary theory accounts for survival only through the age of reproduction. A more elaborate theory, integrating biological and demographic perspectives, is required to explain these current trends in longevity and to gauge their future course. The papers collected in this supplement to Population and Development Review contribute to the development of such a theory. The authors are leading scientists from demography, evolutionary biology, and field ecology, equipped to draw insights not only from human populations but also from the comparative mortality …


Determinants Of Old-Age Mortality In Taiwan, Zachary Zimmer, Linda G. Martin, Hui-Sheng Lin Jan 2003

Determinants Of Old-Age Mortality In Taiwan, Zachary Zimmer, Linda G. Martin, Hui-Sheng Lin

Poverty, Gender, and Youth

Relationships among socio-demographic characteristics, general assessments of health, and old-age mortality are well established in developed countries. There is also an increasing focus on the connection between early-life experiences and latelife health. This paper tests these and other associations using representative survey data from Taiwan on the population aged 60 and older in 1989, 1993, and 1996 that have been linked to data on deaths between 1989 and 1999 from a national death registry. The study also explores the possible influence of Taiwan’s Universal Health Insurance Program, instituted in 1995, and whether or not the survival of some groups of …


Estimating Mean Lifetime, John Bongaarts, Griffith Feeney Jan 2003

Estimating Mean Lifetime, John Bongaarts, Griffith Feeney

Poverty, Gender, and Youth

The life expectancy implied by current age-specific mortality rates is calculated with life table methods that are among the oldest and most fundamental tools of demography. We demonstrate that these conventional estimates of period life expectancy are affected by an undesirable “tempo effect.” The tempo effect is positive when the mean age at death is rising and negative when the mean age is declining. Estimates of the effect for females in three countries with high and rising life expectancy range from 1.6 years in the United States and Sweden to 2.4 years in France for the period 1980-95.


Completing The Fertility Transition In The Developing World: The Role Of Educational Differences And Fertility Preferences, John Bongaarts Jan 2003

Completing The Fertility Transition In The Developing World: The Role Of Educational Differences And Fertility Preferences, John Bongaarts

Poverty, Gender, and Youth

This study summarizes patterns of educational differentials in wanted and unwanted fertility at different stages of the fertility transition based on data from DHS surveys in 57 less developed countries. As the transition proceeds, educational differentials in wanted fertility tend to decline and differentials in unwanted fertility tend to rise. An assessment of fertility patterns in more and less developed countries with low fertility concludes that these differentials are likely to remain substantial when less developed countries reach the end of their transitions. This finding implies that the educational composition of the population remains a key predictor of overall fertility …


Population And Development: An Introductory View, Geoffrey Mcnicoll Jan 2003

Population And Development: An Introductory View, Geoffrey Mcnicoll

Poverty, Gender, and Youth

A brief overview of the relationships between population change and economic development, written for readers unfamiliar with the subject. The paper touches on the scale and pace of world development, the economic consequences of population size and rate of growth, patterns of demographic transition, and the scope for policy measures aimed at speeding that transition.


Population And Development: An Introductory View [Arabic], Geoffrey Mcnicoll Jan 2003

Population And Development: An Introductory View [Arabic], Geoffrey Mcnicoll

Poverty, Gender, and Youth

A brief overview of the relationships between population change and economic development, written for readers unfamiliar with the subject. The paper touches on the scale and pace of world development, the economic consequences of population size and rate of growth, patterns of demographic transition, and the scope for policy measures aimed at speeding that transition.


The Living Arrangements Of Older Adults In Sub-Saharan Africa In A Time Of Hiv/Aids, Zachary Zimmer, Julia Dayton Jan 2003

The Living Arrangements Of Older Adults In Sub-Saharan Africa In A Time Of Hiv/Aids, Zachary Zimmer, Julia Dayton

Poverty, Gender, and Youth

The detrimental consequences of the AIDS epidemic for older adults in sub-Saharan Africa suggest the need to investigate their characteristics, living situations, and well-being. In this study, we examine the living arrangements of persons aged 60 and older in 16 countries. Data come from the household roster component of recent Demographic and Health Surveys. The focus is on the tendency of the elderly to live with children and grandchildren, and we examine distributions and determinants. Results show that older adults in sub-Saharan Africa live in a variety of household arrangements. Men are more likely to be living in a nuclear …


How Indicators Of Socioeconomic Status Relate To Physical Functioning Of Older Adults In Three Asian Societies, Zachary Zimmer, Napaporn Chayovan, Hui-Sheng Lin, Josefina N. Natividad Jan 2003

How Indicators Of Socioeconomic Status Relate To Physical Functioning Of Older Adults In Three Asian Societies, Zachary Zimmer, Napaporn Chayovan, Hui-Sheng Lin, Josefina N. Natividad

Poverty, Gender, and Youth

In developed countries, socioeconomic status has been identified as one of the most important demographic and social determinants of older adult health. The relationship has not been well studied or contrasted across much of the developing world. Yet, with population aging occurring rapidly in much of Asia, understanding the factors that distinguish between those in better and worse health becomes important. To this end, the current study has two main aims. It first examines the degree to which two measures commonly used to indicate socioeconomic status, education and income, relate to the physical functioning of older adults in three Asian …


Population Policy: A Concise Summary, Paul Demeny Jan 2003

Population Policy: A Concise Summary, Paul Demeny

Poverty, Gender, and Youth

Population policies are deliberately constructed or modified institutional arrangements and/or specific programs through which governments influence, directly or indirectly, demographic change. For any given country, the aim of population policy may be narrowly construed as bringing about quantitative changes in the membership of the territorially circumscribed population under the government’s jurisdiction. Governments’ concern with population matters can also extend beyond the borders of their own jurisdictions. Thus, international aspects of population policy have become increasingly salient in the contemporary world. Additions to the population are primarily the result of individual decisions concerning childbearing. Within the constraints of their social milieu, …


Completing The Fertility Transition In The Developing World: The Role Of Educational Differences And Fertility Preferences [Arabic], John Bongaarts Jan 2003

Completing The Fertility Transition In The Developing World: The Role Of Educational Differences And Fertility Preferences [Arabic], John Bongaarts

Poverty, Gender, and Youth

This study summarizes patterns of educational differentials in wanted and unwanted fertility at different stages of the fertility transition based on data from DHS surveys in 57 less developed countries. As the transition proceeds, educational differentials in wanted fertility tend to decline and differentials in unwanted fertility tend to rise. An assessment of fertility patterns in more and less developed countries with low fertility concludes that these differentials are likely to remain substantial when less developed countries reach the end of their transitions. This finding implies that the educational composition of the population remains a key predictor of overall fertility …


Social Organization And Reproductive Behavior In Southern Ghana, Dominic K. Agyeman, John B. Casterline Jan 2002

Social Organization And Reproductive Behavior In Southern Ghana, Dominic K. Agyeman, John B. Casterline

Poverty, Gender, and Youth

The objective of this research is to examine the association between social organization and reproductive behavior in one setting in sub-Saharan Africa. The particular focus is on the effects of social organization on the diffusion of innovative reproductive ideas and behaviors. Social diffusion is assumed to be strongly affected by patterns of informal social interaction, and these in turn are assumed to be determined in part by the social organization of local communities (gender relations, employment activity, voluntary organizations). The research draws on data collected in six communities in southern Ghana. The analysis reveals a weaker than expected association between …


How Long Do We Live?, John Bongaarts, Griffith Feeney Jan 2002

How Long Do We Live?, John Bongaarts, Griffith Feeney

Poverty, Gender, and Youth

Period life expectancy is calculated from age-specific death rates using life table methods that are among the oldest and most fundamental tools of demography. These methods are rarely questioned, much less criticized. Yet changing age patterns of adult mortality in contemporary countries with high life expectancy provide a basis for questioning the conventional use of age-specific death rates and life tables. This paper argues that when the mean age at death is rising, period life expectancy at birth as conventionally calculated overestimates life expectancy. Estimates of this upward bias, ranging from 1.6 years for the United States and Sweden to …


The End Of The Fertility Transition In The Developing World, John Bongaarts Jan 2002

The End Of The Fertility Transition In The Developing World, John Bongaarts

Poverty, Gender, and Youth

Fertility declines are now underway in many developing countries, and the focus of the debate about future fertility trends is shifting from the early to the later phases of the transition. This study examines patterns and determinants of fertility in the developing world using UN estimates of the total fertility rates for 143 developing countries from 1950 to 2000. The main objective is to identify regularities in the past record that may provide clues to future trends. Three key findings emerge from this analysis. First, the pace of fertility decline decelerates as countries reach the later stages of the transition. …


Training And Support Of Developing-Country Population Scientists: A Panel Report, Jane Menken, Ann K. Blanc, Cynthia B. Lloyd Jan 2002

Training And Support Of Developing-Country Population Scientists: A Panel Report, Jane Menken, Ann K. Blanc, Cynthia B. Lloyd

Poverty, Gender, and Youth

This report offers an assessment of the current situation and needs for the future with regard to training population professionals. As the concerns of population scientists become more diverse and as institutions look beyond the limitations of their own programs, collaborative training programs are increasingly seen as an effective means of maximizing the training experience of students while potentially lowering overall costs. While it is clear that the most desirable situation is one in which population experts are trained primarily in high-quality institutions located in their own countries or regions, it is equally clear that this scenario is not likely …


Demographic Factors In East Asian Regional Integration, Geoffrey Mcnicoll Jan 2002

Demographic Factors In East Asian Regional Integration, Geoffrey Mcnicoll

Poverty, Gender, and Youth

The Remapping Asia project, to which this paper is a contribution, investigates broad spatial changes in the ways that East Asia’s political and social life are organized and economies operate. Such changes are attributable to planned action of governments, firms, and other organized groups and to the unorganized but in some measure predictable behavior of myriad families and individuals. The project’s particular interest is in processes of regionalization-both through the deliberate construction of political institutions and through the largely unplanned emergence of regional affiliations and identities. Demographic factors play a potentially significant part both in promoting and in impeding regional …


Household Size And Composition In The Developing World, John Bongaarts Jan 2001

Household Size And Composition In The Developing World, John Bongaarts

Poverty, Gender, and Youth

This study uses data from recent household surveys in 43 developing countries to describe the main dimensions of household size and composition in the developing world. Average household size varies only modestly among regions, ranging from 5.6 in the Near East/North Africa to 4.8 in Latin America. These averages are similar to levels observed in the second half of the nineteenth century in Europe and North America. About four out of five members of the household are part of the nuclear family of the head of the household. Household size is found to be positively associated with the level of …


Household Size And Composition In The Developing World [Arabic], John Bongaarts Jan 2001

Household Size And Composition In The Developing World [Arabic], John Bongaarts

Poverty, Gender, and Youth

This study uses data from recent household surveys in 43 developing countries to describe the main dimensions of household size and composition in the developing world. Average household size varies only modestly among regions, ranging from 5.6 in the Near East/North Africa to 4.8 in Latin America. These averages are similar to levels observed in the second half of the nineteenth century in Europe and North America. About four out of five members of the household are part of the nuclear family of the head of the household. Household size is found to be positively associated with the level of …


Living Arrangements Of Older Adults In The Developing World: An Analysis Of Dhs Household Surveys, John Bongaarts, Zachary Zimmer Jan 2001

Living Arrangements Of Older Adults In The Developing World: An Analysis Of Dhs Household Surveys, John Bongaarts, Zachary Zimmer

Poverty, Gender, and Youth

Using data from Demographic and Health Surveys, this study examines living arrangements of older adults in 43 developing countries and compares patterns by gender, world regions, and macro-level measures of socioeconomic development. Indicators include household size, headship, relationship to head, and coresidence with spouse, children, and others. Unweighted regional averages and OLS regressions determine whether variations exist. Average household sizes are large, but a substantially higher proportion of elderly adults live alone than do individuals in other age groups. Females are more likely than males to live alone and are less likely to live with a spouse or to head …


Living Arrangements Of Older Adults In The Developing World: An Analysis Of Dhs Household Surveys [Arabic], John Bongaarts, Zachary Zimmer Jan 2001

Living Arrangements Of Older Adults In The Developing World: An Analysis Of Dhs Household Surveys [Arabic], John Bongaarts, Zachary Zimmer

Poverty, Gender, and Youth

Using data from Demographic and Health Surveys, this study examines living arrangements of older adults in 43 developing countries and compares patterns by gender, world regions, and macro-level measures of socioeconomic development. Indicators include household size, headship, relationship to head, and coresidence with spouse, children, and others. Unweighted regional averages and OLS regressions determine whether variations exist. Average household sizes are large, but a substantially higher proportion of elderly adults live alone than do individuals in other age groups. Females are more likely than males to live alone and are less likely to live with a spouse or to head …


Spatial Variation In Contraceptive Use In Bangladesh: Looking Beyond The Borders, Sajeda Amin, Alaka Malwade Basu, Rob Stephenson Jan 2000

Spatial Variation In Contraceptive Use In Bangladesh: Looking Beyond The Borders, Sajeda Amin, Alaka Malwade Basu, Rob Stephenson

Poverty, Gender, and Youth

This paper tries to promote a more complete understanding of social change by analyzing spatial patterns of contraceptive use in Bangladesh and the contiguous state of West Bengal in India. The paper takes it’s cue from earlier analysis which found strong evidence of higher contraceptive prevalence in districts of Bangladesh that border Bengali speaking districts on India, as well as from analysis of fertility decline in historical Europe where language played a critical role. Using multilevel analysis to control for variations in individual and household level correlates, mapping districts that deviate considerably from their regional averages, the analysis highlights an …


Completing The Demographic Transition, John Bongaarts, Rodolfo A. Bulatao Jan 1999

Completing The Demographic Transition, John Bongaarts, Rodolfo A. Bulatao

Poverty, Gender, and Youth

Despite ongoing declines in fertility in many countries, the population of the world is experiencing a period of rapid expansion, and its size is expected to exceed 10 billion by the end of the demographic transition. Three causes of this growth are identified and quantified: 1) fertility above the replacement level of two surviving children per woman, 2) continuing declines in mortality, and 3) population momentum resulting from a young age structure. A set of simple analytic expressions is proposed for estimating these factors from standard demographic indicators. Population momentum is shown to be the main cause of future growth …


Population Weights In The International Order, Geoffrey Mcnicoll Jan 1999

Population Weights In The International Order, Geoffrey Mcnicoll

Poverty, Gender, and Youth

Population relativities play little part in the international system. A nation’s economic and military power is influenced by population size, but as one factor among many. Formal relations among states exclude population from consideration by the principle of sovereign equality. Three sources of possible change in this situation are explored, in which states would be “population-weighted” to a greater degree than before. Convergence of productivity levels around the world, expected by many, would bring the economic and population rankings of states more into line. Such convergence is occurring, but selectively and for the most part quite slowly. Anticipation of its …