Macroeconomics Commons^™

The Investment Casualties Of War: Global Impacts Of Armed Conflict On Foreign Direct Investment Inflows, Reinhard J. Cate Mr.

Master's Theses

Abstract: Involvement in the outbreak of an armed conflict can present a variety of potential risks to an involved nation’s economy. In this paper I examine if one one of those risks, specifically that a new war could scare away foreign investment actually occurs and whether the intensity of the conflict increases or lessens the potential impact. Using ordinary least squares on panel data from 1966 to 2015, I examine the short and long term impacts of armed conflict on global foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows using two measures of conflict intensity: Large conflicts or ‘wars’, with 1000 or more …

Geospatial Modeling Of Vietnamese Fdi, Cuong Nguyen Tien

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis sets a goal to analyze and project geographically disaggregated measures of FDI using aggregate data. We regress the country level FDI with aggregate, fine geospatial data on GDP, urban extent, and risk. By disaggregating the model, we will predict the FDI flow in every 1000 square kilometer area.

The Impact Of Market Perception On Sovereign Default Risk In The European Union, Keith Pendergrast

Senior Honors Projects, 2010-2019

The recent debt crisis in the European Union has resulted in the differential treatment of Greece’s debt due in large part to market perception. This is evident in the large differences in credit default swap spreads between Greece and other periphery countries in Europe. The goal of this thesis is to explore the differential treatment, and determine the magnitude of this difference. In order to do this, a fixed effect regression is implemented to first determine that a difference exists. Then, a perception index is created in order to determine the magnitude of the market perception. Using these methods we …

From The Classical School To Today: The Evolution Of Stagnation Theories, Francis J. Lukacovic Ii

Applied Economics Theses

The purpose of this thesis is to study the theory of secular stagnation, which was made famous by the American Keynesian economist Alvin Hansen in his book Full Recovery or Stagnation. The theory of secular stagnation has reappeared in economic circles today due to recent economic conditions since the financial crisis of 2007-2008. The thesis will analyze the history of the stagnation theory dating back to Classical economists in the 19^th century. The concept of a stagnating economy has been talked about for centuries with many economists adding important thoughts. Furthermore, the thesis will address the current questions and …

Energy Price Shocks And External Balances, Bao Tan Huynh

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies the impact of a wide set of energy price shocks on exter- nal balances using a two-country framework comprising multiple sectors and en- dogenous energy production with convex costs. The paper disentangles different demand and supply shocks in the energy market through their distinct impact on external balances. It provides a theoretical confirmation of Kilian et al. (2009) and a theoretical foundation to the determining role of the non-energy trade balance in the transmission of energy price shocks. The presence of durables also highlights the immediate channel through which energy prices impact the non-energy trade balance.

Financial Integration In Asean-5, Laura Grace Gabriella, Revathy Suryanarayana, Vania Esady

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

The financial integration in South East Asia has varied over time. This paper focuses on three periods: before, during, and after the global financial crisis in 2008. This paper finds that ASEAN-5 countries have indeed taken a step towards financial integration. While we do not observe any (cointegrating) long-run relationships between the ASEAN-5 countries, we find that there has been a significant increase in the volatility spillovers between them. This is particularly true in the recovery period following the global financial crisis.

Determination Of Competition Conventional Bank In Banking Industry In Indonesia, Ciplis Gema Qori'ah

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

The aim of this study is to determine the level of concentration and competition behavior of conventional commercial banks in the national banking industry. This study focuses on descriptive analysis and quantitative analysis using panel data regression for 9 conventional commercial banks during 2003-2014. Results of eclectic analysis are supposed that behavior of banks is less competitive due to high levels of concentration in the banking industry. While the results of panel data regression show that the variables of bank interest expense, operating expense, other operating incomes and variable of loanable funds significantly affect the income of conventional banks.

What Are The Challenges In Designing An Effective Personal Income Tax System?, Raeni Raeni

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This article aims to examine the challenges of designing individual's income tax systems in general and particularly to observe taxpayers behaviour in developing countries. This study used case study approach to gain in depth understanding type of taxpayers attitude towards personal income tax systems. Based on the analyses, tax behaviour, which comprises the perception of fairness and motivation to comply, attracts urgent challenges in designing effective tax on personal income in every country and mainly underdeveloped countries. Every human being in each country has their social pattern towards tax policy. When the individual perception of fairness is significant, it will …

The Distribution Of Globalized Power, Rachel Canter

Best Integrated Writing

Canter reviews Thomas Friedman’s The Lexus and the Olive Tree and observes the dissonance between our notions of globalization and global society; she offers an alternate worldview that pays respect to regional cultures and values.

Principles Of Macroeconomics, Jesse Zinn, Lari Arjomand, Nikki Finlay, Reza Kheirandish, Gay Solomon

Business Administration, Management, and Economics Grants Collections

This Grants Collection for Principles of Macroeconomics was created under a Round Two ALG Textbook Transformation Grant.

Affordable Learning Georgia Grants Collections are intended to provide faculty with the frameworks to quickly implement or revise the same materials as a Textbook Transformation Grants team, along with the aims and lessons learned from project teams during the implementation process.

Documents are in .pdf format, with a separate .docx (Word) version available for download. Each collection contains the following materials:

• Linked Syllabus
• Initial Proposal
• Final Report

Labor Market Challenges In Europe With Respect To The Migrant Crisis, Thomas M. Segerstrom

Student Publications

Advocates and opponents of European refugee policy have disagreed often over the economic impact of new asylum seekers. This paper analyzes characteristic qualities of the European labor market and how they relate to the recent changes in migration from the Middle East and Africa. Within is analysis of the impacts to gross domestic product, unemployment, and the welfare state that the arrival of additional persons to the low-wage market will bring. The paper also argues that a plan to distribute asylum seekers across the European Union is an equitable solution to the issue.

Macroeconomic Effects Of Energy Price Shocks On The Business Cycle, Bao Tan Huynh

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper proposes a framework of endogenous energy production with convex costs to investigate the general equilibrium effects of energy price shocks on the business cycle. This framework explicitly models the consumption of durables and nondurables and implements a high complementarity between energy and the usage of durables and capital. The model predicts energy price elasticities of various consumption variables that fall within reasonable agreement with empirical estimates. Convex costs in energy production produce energy price and energy supply dynamics that tallies well with empirical behavior. Our analysis confirms in a theoretical setting recent observations that not all energy price …

Investment-Specific Technical Change And Growth Around The World, Roberto M. Samaniego, Juliana Yu Sun

Research Collection School Of Economics

Investment-specific technical change (ISTC) contributes little to growth in most countries. This is because in many countries the investment process does not become notably more efficient over time. Still, cross-country differences in the contribution of ISTC to growth are significant. Differences in the rate of ISTC appear due to cross-country variation in the use of R&D intensive capital goods, as well as trade costs.

Economic Growth, Poverty And Income Inequality Matrix In Nigeria: A Further Investigation, H. O. Okafor

Economic and Financial Review

This paper examined the existing relationship among economic growth, poverty and income inequality in Nigeria. Using the Vector Auto-regressive (VAR) model and the Engle-Granger technique to test for the causality existing among the variables, the results revealed that economic growth had no impact on poverty reduction and income distribution in Nigeria due its non-inclusive nature. There was, however, evidence of a unidirectional causality, running from income inequality to increased poverty. This implied that inequality would lead to increase in poverty in Nigeria. Therefore, the paper recommended that government should develop stronger economic institutions that are capable of reorganising the productive …

Non-Oil Revenue Buoyancy And Elasticity: Implications For Revenue Generation In Nigeria, B. Gaiya, A. A. Ikenna-Ononugbo, K. Ajala

Economic and Financial Review

The paper employs annual time series data on real government tax revenue components from 1981-2014 to endogenously determine the level of non-oil revenue buoyancy and elasticity and its implication for revenue generation in Nigeria. A partitioning approach to determining tax buoyancy and elasticity is employed to address these objectives. The study found that with the exception of the Company Income Tax, an inelastic tax structure exists in Nigeria for the period under review. The proxy bases had similar results in terms of their responsiveness to the tax system. There were also evidences that the discretionary measures taken during the study …

Empirical Estimation Of Optimal International Reserves For Nigeria: The Sudden Stop Model, G.K. Sanni, T.S. Olusegun, Z. Sani

Economic and Financial Review

The study examined the issue of optimum external reserves for Nigeria during 2010 - 2014, using Jeanne and Ranciere (2006) and Goncalves (2007) sudden stop model approach. The study showed that resident foreign currency deposit accounted for over 90 per cent of the total foreign currency deposit, while non-resident foreign currency deposit accounted for the remaining. The result of the model suggested that external reserves were adequate in 2010 but beyond that period, it was far below optimal level. On average, the optimum external reserves were around 15.7 per cent of GDP in the past four years, translating to US$54.52 …

Exploring Economic And Social Factors That Increase Economic And Well-Being Measurements Of Developing And Developed Countries, Kofi D. Boadu

Undergraduate Economic Review

The historical growth paths of developed and developing countries reveal the challenges that developing countries face in traveling the road from poverty to prosperity. Based on economic development literature, economic theory, and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression method, this research considers whether or not, and to what extent globalization characteristics, foreign direct investment levels (FDI), secondary school enrollment rates, information communication technology (ICT) as a percentage of trade imports, and happiness levels of 103 developing and developed countries, impact their GDP per capita levels. This paper will also take a look at alternative ways of viewing and measuring economic success.

The Shadow Rate And Its Relationship With Lender And Borrower Variables, Andrei Irimia

Honors Undergraduate Theses

Since the federal funds rate reached the zero lower bound in late 2008, economists have been struggling to adapt their models to a long-term zero rate. Wu and Xia built upon previous research by Fischer Black to create a model for how the federal funds rate behaves during the ZLB period. In their model, the rate actually dips into the negative digits, which the actual federal funds rate does not do. The logic behind the model is that a negative shadow rate is a much better indicator of true economic conditions while the current zero rate merely masks the actual …

Informational Efficiency And The Reaction To Terrorism: A Financial Perspective, Nicholas Roland

Honors Undergraduate Theses

The purpose of this study is to measure the message terror organizations hope to convey using the financial markets as a proxy of measurement to determine patterns within the marketplace and the effects on the terrorists’ ability to deliver a desired message due to the increased use of digital devices and access to instantaneous news, seen over the past decade. Using death count, geographic location, and event type, this study identified 109 attacks between 1985 and 2015 to be analyzed against 5 market indices and 5 securities. Measuring the effects within a 10-day sample window from the time of the …

Macroprudential Regulation Of Mortgage Lending, Steven L. Schwarcz

Faculty Scholarship

Much regulatory effort has been devoted to improving mortgage lending, the principal source of housing finance. To date, that effort has primarily been microprudential—intended to correct market failures in order to increase economic efficiency. In contrast, and while there is some overlap, this article focuses on a more “macroprudential” regulation of mortgage lending—intended to reduce systemic risk. Although largely underdeveloped in the literature, the macroprudential regulation of mortgage lending would have two goals: an ex ante goal of preventing systemic shocks in housing finance and the housing sector, and an ex post goal of ensuring that housing finance, the housing …

The Effects Of The One-Child Policy On Household Financial Decisions, Sylvia M. Xu

Honors Theses

The Chinese One-Child Policy, enacted in 1979, was an attempt to decrease the population growth rate following a period of massive social and political confusion and uncertainty. While the policy was beneficial to curbing the population growth in China, it also introduced unintentional consequences, including sex imbalance, and other demographic differences. The goal of this paper is to examine the economic behavior and financial decisions of son-families and daughter-families across different provinces and regions of China, which have varying levels of sex imbalance, as a result of a cultural preference for sons. These financial decisions include the household saving rate, …

Coordination Of Monetary And Fiscal Policies: The Case Of Egypt, Sahar M. Abdel-Haleim

Business Administration

Coordination is defined as the necessary arrangements that assure that the decisions taken by monetary and fiscal authorities are not contradictory. The need for effective coordination of policies becomes pressing with the increasing independence of both authorities to implement their objectives. The purpose of the paper is to investigate the extent of coordination between monetary and fiscal policies in Egypt over the period (1974-2015). Quantifying the extent of coordination depends on the appropriate policy mix that responds effectively to different shocks. The results confirm that coordination of policies was absent or weak during most of the period under study, while …

Why Are We Still Listening To This Dead British Guy: An Analysis Of Emergency Liquidity Assistance In Germany During The Sovereign Debt Crisis, Nia R. Gillenwater

Scripps Senior Theses

Germany’s position of power within the European Union disguises how impacted the German economy was by the 2008 Financial Crisis and Europe’s subsequent Sovereign Debt Crisis. Two of Germany’s major banks-Commerzbank and Bayerische Landesbank- suffered major losses and required emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) to survive. Walter Bagehot wrote the theory underpinning lenders of last resort (LLRs) in 1873 but how has the development of systemically important banks affected the usefulness of Bagehot’s theory? This paper aims to explain why Germany is in need of updated LLR recommendations through an analysis of the ELA Germany at large, Commerzbank and Bayerische Landesbank …

The Impact Of Oil Sector On The Global Competitiveness Of Gcc Countries: Panel Data Approach, Anas Alqudah, Ahmed Badawi, Mostafa Aboelsoud

Economics

This study explores the impact of oil sector on the global competitiveness of the GCC states in a panel data framework for the period from 2006 to 2014. The focus is placed on how the non-traditional factors; oil rents, fuel exports as a percentage of merchandise exports, oil prices, and mining sector production impact on the global competitiveness of the GCC nations.

The study uses panel data techniques to measure the effect of the oil sector’s impact on of global competitiveness of the GCC countries. The results of the regression show that the relation between rent and GCI found to …

Linnearity Calculations, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Linearity calculations by Anwar Shaikh, PhD (pp. 1-2)
• Measuring curvature by Anwar Shaikh, PhD (p. 4)
• Your library materials are overdue by New York University and Consortium Libraries (p. 14)
• White, A. D. (1896). Fiat money inflation in France: How it came, what it brought, and how it ended. D. Appleton and Co. (p. 14)
• O'Brien, T. J. (1991). A simple binomial no-arbitrage model of the term structure: With applications to the valuation of interest-sensitive options and interest-rate swaps. Salomon Brothers Center for the Study of Financial Institutions. (p. 14)
• Curvature measure: Numeric calculations by …

Marx, Map, Itoh Koc Letters, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Capitalism: competition, conflict, crises by Anwar Shaikh, 2016, Oxford University Press.
• Karl Marx in Camden by London Borough of Camden Libraries and Arts Department, 1983, London Borough of Camden.
• Letter to Anwar Shaikh by Yıldırım Koç, 1985, Unpublished manuscript.
• Letter to Anwar Shaikh by Makoto Itoh, 1975, Unpublished manuscript.
• Handwritten notes on envelope by Anwar Shaikh, PhD, 1976, Unpublished manuscript.

Decrypting Bitcoin Prices And Adoption Rates Using Google Search, Varun Puri

CMC Senior Theses

In this paper, I analyze Bitcoin price formation and adoption rates at a global and national level. In determining Bitcoin prices, I consider contemporaneous and lagged values of traditional determinants of currencies, such as inflation and industrial production, and digital currency specific factors, primarily public interest. Using monthly time-series data across five years (2011 – 2016), I find that global public interest in Bitcoin, measured by Google searches for the keyword ‘Bitcoin,’ has a positive and significant impact on Bitcoin prices. I extend the analysis to a country level by employing a proxy for adoption rates, represented by the number …

A Critical Examination Of Oil Wealth Management Strategies And Their Effects On Economic Growth In The Gulf Cooperation Council Countries, Caroline J. Belmont

CMC Senior Theses

Despite their natural resources, the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman) have failed to live up to their economic potential, primarily due to their dependence on a revenue source with volatile prices and political significance in an unstable region. This thesis argues that the best way to convert oil wealth into consistent long term growth is through diversification, both by investing in foreign assets and by growing domestic sectors that are independent from oil and gas prices. The research further investigates the primary tool these countries have used to …