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Articles 31 - 57 of 57
Full-Text Articles in Macroeconomics
Are Oil Prices Important To U.S. Manufacturers?, Austin Perez Schoff
Are Oil Prices Important To U.S. Manufacturers?, Austin Perez Schoff
CMC Senior Theses
Very little has been written about the effect that oil prices have on manufacturing output in the United States. This paper aims to shed light about the effect of oil prices, oil imports, and GDP on U.S. manufacturing output through a four-variable vector autoregression and explain the timing of these shocks through impulse response functions. Empirical results find that oil prices are significant in determining manufacturing output, but manufacturing output is also significant in determining oil prices.
The End Of The Three Percent Rule: How Structural Changes In The U.S. Economy Have Impacted Economic Growth, Maxwell J. Urman
The End Of The Three Percent Rule: How Structural Changes In The U.S. Economy Have Impacted Economic Growth, Maxwell J. Urman
CMC Senior Theses
Using data from government sources (FRED, BEA, BLS), the thesis explores the underlying reasons for declining U.S. economic growth. A long standing trend of annual 3% growth no longer seems to hold true for the economy. The paper summarizes current theory as to why the growth has slowed and finds new explanations by analyzing the various major industries which make up GDP. The results show that sectoral shifts in employment from high paying industries to low paying industries help to explain a significant portion of the decline in national growth rates. The decline in growth is primarily driven by about …
The Political Impact Of Rising Trade Exposure: Evidence From 2000 - 2016 U.S. Presidential Elections, Xiaoyang Qian
The Political Impact Of Rising Trade Exposure: Evidence From 2000 - 2016 U.S. Presidential Elections, Xiaoyang Qian
CMC Senior Theses
In this paper we analyze the impact of global imports on regional labor markets, and how such impact translates to changes in voting patterns in the U.S. Presidential elections from 2000 to 2016. We find that imports from different U.S. trading partners influence voting patterns in different ways. In particular, we observe an anti-incumbent effect caused by import competition from OECD countries. Such an effect cannot be observed for imports from low-income countries. There is also evidence that suggests high exposure to import competition tends to drive voters toward the Democratic candidate, who typically proposes better social welfare programs and …
Degree Matters: The Impact Of A Leader’S Foreign Education On His Country’S Economic Development, Zhongyi Yu
Degree Matters: The Impact Of A Leader’S Foreign Education On His Country’S Economic Development, Zhongyi Yu
CMC Senior Theses
I analyze the correlation between a nation leader’s foreign education experience and their nation’s GDP growth and economic freedom in African, Asian, and South American countries. There is a statistically significant correlation between a leader’s foreign education and the country’s GDP growth rate, especially in Africa. Data also shows that a leader’s foreign education is positively correlated with his country’s economic freedom. Despite the fact that the regressions can only demonstrate correlation as opposed to causation relationships among variables, further analysis of the results concludes that a leader’s education and the country’s development are reciprocal. The findings of this paper …
A Critical Examination Of Oil Wealth Management Strategies And Their Effects On Economic Growth In The Gulf Cooperation Council Countries, Caroline J. Belmont
A Critical Examination Of Oil Wealth Management Strategies And Their Effects On Economic Growth In The Gulf Cooperation Council Countries, Caroline J. Belmont
CMC Senior Theses
Despite their natural resources, the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman) have failed to live up to their economic potential, primarily due to their dependence on a revenue source with volatile prices and political significance in an unstable region. This thesis argues that the best way to convert oil wealth into consistent long term growth is through diversification, both by investing in foreign assets and by growing domestic sectors that are independent from oil and gas prices. The research further investigates the primary tool these countries have used to …
Decrypting Bitcoin Prices And Adoption Rates Using Google Search, Varun Puri
Decrypting Bitcoin Prices And Adoption Rates Using Google Search, Varun Puri
CMC Senior Theses
In this paper, I analyze Bitcoin price formation and adoption rates at a global and national level. In determining Bitcoin prices, I consider contemporaneous and lagged values of traditional determinants of currencies, such as inflation and industrial production, and digital currency specific factors, primarily public interest. Using monthly time-series data across five years (2011 – 2016), I find that global public interest in Bitcoin, measured by Google searches for the keyword ‘Bitcoin,’ has a positive and significant impact on Bitcoin prices. I extend the analysis to a country level by employing a proxy for adoption rates, represented by the number …
Examining The Relationship Between Received Remittances And Education In Malawi, Kasvi Malik
Examining The Relationship Between Received Remittances And Education In Malawi, Kasvi Malik
CMC Senior Theses
This thesis examines the relationship between received remittances and education using random samples from panel survey data from households in rural Malawi collected between 2008 and 2010. Past research as well as that conducted in this paper point to the fact that remittances and education share an important correlation. The results of this study indicate that on a microeconomic level, remittances have a highly significant and positive impact on household education. Other remittance-related factors such as the distance from agent, the remittance amount, and the type of account held by an individual also have a significant impact on the highest …
Mergers & Abenomics: The Determinants Of M&A In Japan's New Economy, Ethan S. Hallberg
Mergers & Abenomics: The Determinants Of M&A In Japan's New Economy, Ethan S. Hallberg
CMC Senior Theses
This paper investigates the influence of various macroeconomic variables on Japan’s merger and acquisition (M&A) activity, both in terms of total deal value and total number of deals. Looking at monthly data from June 1997 to December 2013, I use econometric time-series analysis to find that: First, total deal value per month is not well explained by our macroeconomic variables, but about half of the variation in number of deals per month can be explained by our dataset. Second, the most important determinant in the total number of deals per month during our period is the level of national debt, …
The Liberalization Of Shibor And The Economic Fundamentals Of House Price Growth In China, Michael J. Mavredakis
The Liberalization Of Shibor And The Economic Fundamentals Of House Price Growth In China, Michael J. Mavredakis
CMC Senior Theses
This paper uses data collected from the National Interbank Funding Center of China, the People’s Bank of China, the National Bureau of Statistics, and Bloomberg starting in October 2006 through 2013 to test the economic fundamental’s affecting the housing market in Shanghai, particularly interest rates. This study finds that the 6- month duration Shibor has a negative and significant correlation with house price growth in Shanghai when lagged 4 months. The analysis continues by examining other economic fundamentals affecting house price growth, finding growth in inflation, the money supply and Shanghai real estate investment to have significant, positive relationships with …
How Many Barack Obamas Does It Take: An Analysis Of The Effect Of Charter Schools On Real Estate And Crime, Aananditaa Kakkar
How Many Barack Obamas Does It Take: An Analysis Of The Effect Of Charter Schools On Real Estate And Crime, Aananditaa Kakkar
CMC Senior Theses
This study looks at the relationship between charter school presence and neighborhood quality in Los Angeles. Using data from the Los Angeles Department of Education, Zillow Real Estate, and the Los Angeles Sheriff, this paper attempts to find whether changes in charter presence influence the price of surrounding real estate or the occurrence of serious and petty crimes. The results find that charter schools tend to be associated with a decrease in home sale prices. The results on crime imply that crime increases upon the opening of charter schools, however they are statistically insignificant.
The Price Discounts Of Chinese Cross-Listed Companies And Their Variation Across Sectors, Tom Guo
The Price Discounts Of Chinese Cross-Listed Companies And Their Variation Across Sectors, Tom Guo
CMC Senior Theses
This study builds on the paper by Arquette, Brown, and Burdekin (2008) and asks whether the factors which they find to be significant in influencing the differential between the share prices of Chinese securities traded on their home market in Shanghai versus share prices observed offshore in Hong Kong and New York have varying degrees of influence when compared across industries. This paper focuses on Chinese companies listed on both the Shanghai and Hong Kong Stock Exchanges and finds that the proxy variables of expected exchange rate change, relative market sentiment, and relative company sentiment are significant in determining the …
Fossil Fuel Subsidies: Impacts And Reform Strategies, Jennifer E. Good
Fossil Fuel Subsidies: Impacts And Reform Strategies, Jennifer E. Good
CMC Senior Theses
This thesis uses cross-country panel regressions to identify the effects of fossil-fuel subsidies for both oil importers and oil exporters on GDP growth, industry growth, crowding out of government expenditures in education, health, and infrastructure, government debt, carbon dioxide emissions, inequality and poverty. Fossil-fuel subsidies are found to be associated with lower levels of growth and industry growth, less government expenditure on health and education, poorer infrastructure quality, more government debt, and higher rates of carbon dioxide emissions. No relationship is found between fossil fuel subsidies and poverty and inequality. These results confirm the arguments of those that argue that …
The Impact Of Participatory Notes On The Indian Rupee Exchange Rate, Rohan Kothari
The Impact Of Participatory Notes On The Indian Rupee Exchange Rate, Rohan Kothari
CMC Senior Theses
Since 1992, India has grown as a global player in the finance world. In spite of its success, India has not been able to rid itself of potentially harmful practices. One such practice is the issuing of Participatory Notes (PN) to foreign investors, so that they can anonymously purchase securities or derivatives listed on the Indian Stock Exchanges. This instrument came into public view when it accounted for approximately 50% of all foreign portfolio assets in India. Since then, the laws regarding PNs have evolved to become a more transparent version of the old rules. Although PN levels are not …
The Role Of Islamic Banking In Economic Growth, Katherine Johnson
The Role Of Islamic Banking In Economic Growth, Katherine Johnson
CMC Senior Theses
Islamic banking is currently one of the fastest growing segments of the financial market industry, operating in over 75 countries through 300 institutions. While past literature has established the development of financial institutions as a determinant of economic growth, research on the correlation of the diffusion of Islamic banking with economic growth is limited. This study seeks to add to the literature by empirically analyzing the economic growth determinative power of Islamic banks. Confirming past research, Muslim prevalence in a population is found to be the most significant determinant of the diffusion of Islamic banks. Using this exogenous instrument in …
An Economic Analysis Of Foreign Ownership In Professional Sports: Motivation, Success, And Implications For United States Market, Alex F. Wheatley
An Economic Analysis Of Foreign Ownership In Professional Sports: Motivation, Success, And Implications For United States Market, Alex F. Wheatley
CMC Senior Theses
An economic analysis of foreign ownership in sports. Focusing on the English Premier League, National Basketball Association, and Major League Baseball.
A Study In Market Micromanagement: The Asymmetrical Effects Of The 2008 Short Sale Ban On Stocks With And Without Traded Options, James W. Weyerhaeuser
A Study In Market Micromanagement: The Asymmetrical Effects Of The 2008 Short Sale Ban On Stocks With And Without Traded Options, James W. Weyerhaeuser
CMC Senior Theses
This study provides an empirical analysis of the 2008 short sale ban. The evidence suggests that the presence of tradable options plays a crucial role in determining the effect of a short sale ban. Results show that if there are no traded options on a stock, the short sale ban brought abnormal returns of roughly +8%. However if there are traded options on a stock, the market maker exemptions nullify the positive effects of the ban. Furthermore, for the banned stocks that do experience positive abnormal returns during the ban, the lifting of the ban causes a prompt reversal of …
The Origins Of The Italian Sovereign Debt Crisis, David M. Henningsen
The Origins Of The Italian Sovereign Debt Crisis, David M. Henningsen
CMC Senior Theses
Over the past decade, the European Union has been characterized by an explosion of expenditure, insufficient revenue, high deficits and a lack of budget discipline. Financial markets in Europe are currently dealing with enormous government debts, poor government balance sheets and a weakening banking system. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the origins of the current Euro-crisis and specifically identify the extent to which it will affect the nation of Italy going forward. To understand Italy's stance amid the Euro-crisis, we proceed as follows: First, a historical background section will develop the fundamental issues that have developed in …
America's First Great Moderation, Ryan Shaffer
America's First Great Moderation, Ryan Shaffer
CMC Senior Theses
This paper identifies America's first Great Moderation, a period from 1841-1856 of unbroken economic expansion and low volatility comparable to the Great Moderation of the 1980s-2000s. This moderation occurred despite a lack of central banks, low governmental spending, and barriers to interstate commerce during the antebellum period. I demonstrate this moderation in industrial production and stock market indexes and compare the first Great Moderation with the second in these economic factors. These results also call into question the conventional wisdom of the National Bureau of Economic Research business cycle chronology that the antebellum period was volatile and fraught with recessions. …
Fiscal Impact Of Privatization In Developing Countries, Alexander H. Sunderland
Fiscal Impact Of Privatization In Developing Countries, Alexander H. Sunderland
CMC Senior Theses
This paper examines the fiscal impact of privatization revenues in 47 developing countries. There are many reasons that privatization is attractive for the central government of developing countries. If substantial, these revenues from the sale of state owned enterprises can present a potential solution to persistent deficits. On the other hand, the privatization revenues could be used to finance an even larger deficit. In this paper, I will discuss previous research on the fiscal impact of privatization revenues, the factors that contribute to persistent fiscal budget deficits and explain how empirical research on the fiscal impact of privatization in the …
The Impact Of Terrorism On Foreign Direct Investment: Which Sectors Are More Vulnerable?, Shivani Agrawal
The Impact Of Terrorism On Foreign Direct Investment: Which Sectors Are More Vulnerable?, Shivani Agrawal
CMC Senior Theses
The impact of conflict and violence on foreign direct investment (FDI) is not a topic that has been done justice by the literature, and what few studies exist have contradictory results. This paper studies the impact that transnational terrorism has on FDI inflows by economic sector, in developed countries. Results indicate a statistically significant negative correlation between terrorist events and total FDI inflows. Amongst a list of 12 broad industrial sectors, FDI inflows for manufacturing, trade and repair, and construction were found to have a statistically significant negative correlation with terrorist events.
The Economic Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On Emerging Markets, Aanchal Kapoor
The Economic Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On Emerging Markets, Aanchal Kapoor
CMC Senior Theses
Recent spikes in oil prices have thrown light on how economic activity in emerging markets may be impacted by oil price shocks. This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the effect of oil price shocks on emerging markets. It tests for the existence of an asymmetrical relationship between oil prices and economic activity using a model developed by James Hamilton. It also assesses the impact of structural shocks to the real price of oil on output as proposed by Lutz Kilian. While our models find no consistent pattern within emerging markets, they do suggest that oil price shocks have a …
Credit Market Imperfections, Financial Crisis And The Transmission Of Monetary Policy, Brett Spencer
Credit Market Imperfections, Financial Crisis And The Transmission Of Monetary Policy, Brett Spencer
CMC Senior Theses
This paper uses U.S. macroeconomic data drawn from 2001 to 2010 in order to test for the operation of a credit channel of monetary transmission. Using a combination of a VAR and ADL time series frameworks, evidence is found for the impairment of the credit channel during the crisis period relative to the period which preceded it. Evidence is also found against the presence of a "credit crunch" during the crisis, and supporting evidence is found for the existence of a "credit trap." This analysis indicates a significant role for credit market imperfections in the transmission of monetary policy, and …
Can The Monetary Integration Of Ecowas Improve Intra-Regional Trade?, Chinweuba E. Ezekwesili
Can The Monetary Integration Of Ecowas Improve Intra-Regional Trade?, Chinweuba E. Ezekwesili
CMC Senior Theses
A gravity model is used to evaluate the effects of currency union on intra-regional trade of ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) member states. The panel data used includes bilateral observations for fourteen years spanning 1994 through 2006 for 16 countries. Controlling for determinants and deterrents of trade, I find the presence of a currency union three times as likely to increase intra-regional trade between ECOWAS member countries. In addition, I find that the effect on trade creation has been steadily falling since 1994.
The Great Indian Growth Puzzle: What Caused A Spike In 2003?, Aditya Bindal
The Great Indian Growth Puzzle: What Caused A Spike In 2003?, Aditya Bindal
CMC Senior Theses
This paper will employ unit root tests for finding structural breaks endogenously among India’s key macroeconomic aggregate series, as well as their components and subcomponents. The same analysis will be repeated, wherever data are available, for states. The results from these unit root tests will then be used in regression models for national and state level data to understand the causes behind structural breaks. We find that breakpoints cluster around 1982 and 2003 for most series at the national and state level. The services component appears to be a promising candidate for explaining the 2003 structural break in some of …
The Impact Of Oil Prices On The U.S. Economy, Jacob H. Bauch
The Impact Of Oil Prices On The U.S. Economy, Jacob H. Bauch
CMC Senior Theses
Nine of the ten recessions since WWII have been preceded by relatively large and sudden increases in the price of oil. In this paper, I use time series analysis to forecast GDP growth using oil prices. I use the methodology from Hamilton (2009), and extend the dataset through 2010. Impulse response functions are used to analyze the historical performance of the model’s one-year-ahead forecasts. In April, 2011, the International Monetary Fund changed its forecast of 2011 GDP growth in the U.S. from 3.0% to 2.8% largely due to persistently high oil prices. My model suggests that the price increase in …
Alleviating Social Disadvantages Of Rapid Economic Growth: A Case For Conditional Cash Transfer (Cct) Application In Old Siam, Anastasia Kostioukova
Alleviating Social Disadvantages Of Rapid Economic Growth: A Case For Conditional Cash Transfer (Cct) Application In Old Siam, Anastasia Kostioukova
CMC Senior Theses
The ongoing conflict between Thailand’s red shirt and yellow shirt parties is not purely political. This tension is rooted in a renewed awareness of regional economic and social inequality, a byproduct of rapid economic growth in the past. This thesis seeks to understand the overall consequences of unequal economic development in Thailand, as the rationale for asserting that a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program is an appropriate policy tool for the ongoing reconciliation efforts.
How Are Inflation Expectations Formed By Consumers, Economists And The Financial Market?, Shaun Khubchandani
How Are Inflation Expectations Formed By Consumers, Economists And The Financial Market?, Shaun Khubchandani
CMC Senior Theses
Inflation expectations have been of great interest to economists because they predict how agents in an economy set prices and react to changes in various macroeconomic variables. The existence of Keynesian liquidity traps in Japan and the United States have helped emphasize the importance of inflation expectations, especially when monetary policy is rendered ineffective and there is almost perfect substitutability between money and bonds due to the zero bound condition of interest rates. Given the canonical theories of rational and adaptive expectations, this paper will use a simple model of the economy to measure the effect of various macroeconomic variables …