Macroeconomics Commons^™

Essays In Macroeconomics Of Emerging Markets, Miguel Acosta Henao

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter 1. Law enforcement and the size of the informal sector.

I assemble new cross-country evidence showing that contrary to the standard view, the relationship between the size of the informal sector and tax rates is, at best, ambiguous. Law enforcement and informality also show no clear relation. Motivated by these findings, I augment a standard two-sector (formal and informal) small open economy model with endogenous law enforcement that depends on the size of the informal sector (measured by its assets) and government expenditure. I use a micro-dataset from Colombia to show that both taxes and law enforcement are necessary …

Shocks To Aggregate Demand And Aggregate Supply In The Midst Of Covid-19, Anna M. Gellerman

Publications and Research

COVID-19 sent shockwaves throughout the economy, changing the amounts of goods and services distributed and altering the demand. This article discusses the negative demand shock and adverse supply shock that the U.S. economy faced in 2020, and the policies that the government implemented to reverse these effects.

From Muhammed To The Jobup: Engaging Malemployed Immigrants Through Journalism, Tiziana Rinaldi

Capstones

I focused my graduate work on the local community of malemployed immigrants. They are foreign-educated newcomers — medical doctors, pharmacists, teachers, lawyers and engineers, to name a few of their professions — who lack the resources to find skill- appropriate work in the U.S. They end up either unemployed or working at "jobs for which they’re overqualified or overeducated or both,” I wrote for NJSpotlight in 20171.

Using the social journalism method2 of engaging members of a chosen group to fill important if not crucial information gaps, I developed The JobUp, a series of free, offline educational events, as my …

Essays On New Keynesian Term Premium Model With Financial Risks, Weiguo Fu

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation studies the modeling of U.S. Treasury (UST) yield curve term premia under the New Keynesian (NK) framework. Loosely speaking, term premium is the difference between a government bond’s yield for a specific tenor and the average of the expected short rates up to that tenor. The dissertation is divided into three chapters. The first chapter proposes a New Keynesianism-based macro-finance model estimated by a one-step full information maximum likelihood (FIML) method. The second chapter shows that the one-step FIML method may produce estimation biases, which result in biased expected short rates and term premia. The chapter then presents …

Essays On The Economic Consequences Of Capital Controls, Richard J. Nugent Iii

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters. In Chapter One, we review the literature on the economic consequences of capital controls. Capital controls are advocated as second-best policy in the presence of a pecuniary externality. Restricting capital inflows as a prudential tool during economic booms may distort the efficient allocation of capital but it invokes precautionary saving behavior so that agents do not overborrow. The financial crises that are fueled by capital market distortions can be mitigated by the use of prudential capital controls, heightened during the boom and released during the bust. The empirical evidence on capital controls has revealed …

Empirical Analysis Of China’S Exchange Rate And Macroeconomic Policy, Jia Ji

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation examines the effects of exchange rate and macroeconomic policy in China. It consists of three chapters. Chapter 1 explores the dynamics of monetary transmission mechanism. As China’s domestic financial markets deepen and develop further toward a market-based system, the country’s monetary policy transmission should continue to improve in the sense that the policy instrument’s influence on economic conditions increases in magnitude and stabilized across time. Using a short-term key interest rate as a standard monetary policy tool and time-varying parameter techniques, this study empirically demonstrates that China’s monetary policy framework is in the midst of transitioning to a …

The Impact Of Legalization Of Marijuana On Opioid Overdose Deaths, Radhika N. Bharadwaj

Theses and Dissertations

This masters’ thesis aims to examine the impact of the legalization of marijuana for recreational use on the death toll from opioid misuse in the state of Colorado. This investigation was done using the Synthetic Controls Method via data collected primarily from the CDC and IPUMS databases. The results indicate that the 2012 legalization policy in Colorado appears to reduce the number of deaths due to opioid overdoses.

Shapes And Transitions Of The Interest Rate Term Structure, Biwei Chen

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

I analyze different shapes of Treasury yield curves in order to better reflect and predict the U.S. economy. Since the late 1980s, macroeconomists have found that the slope of the yield curve predicts economic activity such as inflation, output growth, and recessions, but they have not fully examined the links between various shapes of yield curve and the macroeconomy. To fill the gap, I classify yield curve shapes with the U.S. Treasury yield data, detect the shape patterns over the business cycles, and map these shapes onto corresponding inflation and production states. Although the downward-sloping yield curve reliably predicts U.S. …

The Effect Of Outward Foreign Direct Investment On Exports In Japan During The Lost Decade, 1985-2005, Alexandros Ladas

Dissertations and Theses

This study will utilize an OLS analysis of the panel data coming from various databases such as the World Bank, Federal Reserve and etc. to determine if there exists a significant correlation between the exports of Japan and its foreign direct investment (FDI) in the period of 1985-2005 with nearby trading partners of which include the countries of ASEAN, China and South Korea. In addition, a selection of supplemental factors will be used to determine if they also possess any significance with exports. These factors include: the exchange rate of the Japanese yen with the currency of the trading partner …

Global Capital Flows, Time Varying Fundamentals And Transitional Exchange Rate Dynamics: An Ms-Var Approach, Süleyman Hilmi Kal, Ilhami Gunduz

Publications and Research

This paper studies whether dynamic relationship between exchange rate and economic and financial fundamentals vary depending on exchange rate is overvalued and undervalued with respect to its fundamental value. To achieve this, we implement two-state Markov Switching Vector Auto Regression (MSVAR) model with time varying transition probabilities to investigate whether the relationship among exchange rate, interest rate and inflation dynamics depend on overvaluation and undervaluation of exchange rates for the pre-crises period between years 1972-2009. We govern the transition between the undervalued and overvalued states by using Sharpe Ratios of debt and equity investments of the currency to assess whether …

Essays In New Keynesian Monetary Policy, Tzu-Hao Huang

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

The dissertation consists of three Chapters. I consider New Keynesian models which involve tradeoffs between output gap and inflation variances. Such policy strategy is often referred to as flexible inflation targeting rules (e.g., Lars Svensson 2011, pp.1238-95). Taylor rules, in general, have the symbolic expression ��_t=��_x��_t+��_����_t+��_g��_t, where ��_t is the nominal interest rate at period t, ��_t is the target variable output gap at period t, ��_t is the target variable inflation rate at period t, ��_t is realized shock …

Institutional Quality And Illicit Financial Flows In Developing And Developed Countries: An Empirical Assessment, Zin Kyaw Lin

Theses and Dissertations

This paper investigates the direct linkage between institutional quality and illicit financial flows (IFFs) of 47 developing and developed countries from the period of 2005 to 2014. Corruption and political stability are found to be correlated to the IFFs.

A New Keynesian Approach To Estimating Welfare Losses Under Strict And Flexible-Targeting Regimes, Shawn Weber

Theses and Dissertations

How do different inflation-targeting regimes affect the monetary loss-function of a central bank aiming at stabilizing inflation around an inflation target and stabilizing the real economy? Under a basic New-Keynesian framework, this paper examines the effect of inflation-targeting regimes on the monetary loss function of a central bank.

Analyzing Housing Demand And Its Role In The U.S. Economy, Irina Ayzenberg

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

In the most recent economic downturn, caused by the burst of the housing bubble and the subprime mortgage crisis, the housing market took a direct hit: mortgage default rates were over 10 percent, housing prices fell 35 percent from 2005 to 2009, more than 5 million homes were foreclosed since 2008, and interest rates hit rock-bottom. In response, the U.S. Federal Reserve adopted aggressive expansionary monetary policies to get the economy back on track, some of which are in effect today. In order to really understand the state and direction of the U.S. economy today, we need to better understand …

Macroeconomics Course Outline And Syllabus, Sean P. Macdonald

Open Educational Resources

No abstract provided.

The Balance Of Payments, Exchange Rates And Aggregate Expenditure, Alexander Nunez-Torres

Open Educational Resources

This lecture examines the effects of the economy’s openness on macroeconomic policy. The three main topics covered in this lecture are: the effect of exports and imports on the Gross Domestic Product; the workings of a foreign exchange market; and the effects of exchange rates on the economy.

Money, The Federal Reserve And The Monetary Policy, Alexander Nunez-Torres

Open Educational Resources

No abstract provided.

The Government And Fiscal Policy, Alexander Nunez-Torres

Open Educational Resources

This lecture discusses the role of fiscal policy: government spending and taxation in the economy. It examines the United States government budget.

The Core Of Macroeconomic Theory Ii, Alexander Nunez-Torres

Open Educational Resources

No abstract provided.

The Macroeconomic Perspective Ii: The Gdp Concept, Alexander Nunez-Torres

Open Educational Resources

This lecture presents concepts related to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and its calculation. It examines nominal versus real GDP.

The Macroeconomic Perspective I: Introduction To Macroeconomics, Alexander Nunez-Torres

Open Educational Resources

This lecture evaluates concepts of macroeconomics and distinguishes it from microeconomics. It examines the role of government as well as providing a brief history of macroeconomics.

Demand, Supply, And Market Equilibrium, Alexander Nunez-Torres

Open Educational Resources

This lecture discusses the role of firms and households in the market as well as the circular flow. Market equilibrium, supply, demand and the concept of efficiency are also covered.

Welcome To Economics! The Scope And Method Of Economics, Alexander Nunez-Torres

Open Educational Resources

This lecture covers concepts, definitions and methods of Economics and discusses how theories and models are used.

Eco 166 Introduction To Macroeconomics, Alexander Núñez-Torres

Open Educational Resources

National income components and their measurement, unemployment rate, and price levels. Determinants of aggregate demand and output. Effects of government spending, taxation, and monetary policy on national income, employment, and the rate of inflation.

Unemployment, Inflation, And Long-Run Growth, Alexander Nunez-Torres

Open Educational Resources

This lecture covers unemployment, inflation and long-run growth.

The Core Of Macroeconomic Theory I, Alexander Nunez-Torres

Open Educational Resources

This lecture discusses the AD/AS Model, the Keynesian and neoclassical macroeconomic theories, their differences and perspectives.

Choice In A World Of Scarcity, Alexander Nunez-Torres

Open Educational Resources

This lecture introduces the concepts of scarcity, choice and opportunity costs. It also discusses economics systems and the role of government.

Bayesian State Space Representation Model: Applications To Macroeconomics And International Finance, Hiroshi Morita

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation develops three new econometric models using Bayesian state space representation model in order to apply to macroeconomics and international finance. It consists of 3 chapters. Chapter 1 develops a Markov mixture model of macroeconomic fundamentals to analyze the short-run dynamics of foreign exchange rates. In our model, foreign exchange rates are simultaneously determined by three parities: the interest rate parity, the inflation rate parity, and the equity return rate parity. Using four exchange rates: the U.S. dollar price of the British pound, the German mark, the Japanese yen, and the Canadian dollar, the findings are: (1) Our model …

Business Economics: Data For Decision Making, Brian Barnier, Kevin Foster

Open Educational Resources

Syllabus for a course in data analytics for business economics, focusing on use of source data sets to answer the "why?" questions hidden in aggregate averages used in theory and "headline" news releases. Zero cost course using data available widely on the web. Optional texts are trade books available widely in libraries or used copies at low cost.

The Effect Of Changes In Racial Composition On Housing Prices: A Study Of The Most Diverse Place In The World, Youseph Anwar

Theses and Dissertations

This study attempts to illustrate that increases in minority residents may lead to decreases in housing prices. I observe the effects of changes in racial composition on housing prices in Queens, NY from 2011-2015. The following econometric tools are implemented: a fixed effects model, quantile, hedonic, and OLS regressions.