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The Elasticity Of Substitution And Endogenous Growth, Hing-Man Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

The endogenous growth literature focuses exclusively on Cobb-Douglas. Elasticities other than unity are ignored. A recent paper by Klump and Grandville (2000) examined other elasticities but assumed an exogenous saving rate. By contrast, this paper studies elasticity and endogenous growth. Endogeneity is important since elasticity preserves capital’s productivity and encourages saving. Two models are presented. The first assumes exogenous technological change. We find elasticity to have a positive level effect on income. No rate of growth effect is found. The second model allows learning by doing from capital accumulation. In addition to the level effect, rate of growth effects are …

Growth And Volatility, Hing-Man Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper has two objectives. First, to establish empirically a U-shaped relation between GDP growth rate and income volatility. The backward as well as the fast-growing countries have had extensive volatility; but developed nations by contrast have enjoyed much more stable income. Second, to present a macroeconomic model to study how growth and volatility evolve together. The twin endogenous variables are financial liberalization interacting with liquidity constraints. Opening LDC financial markets could raise or lower their long-term income and growth rates, depending on the severity of existing liquidity constraints. Financial liberalization and removing financial market imperfections unambiguously worsen income volatility.

Less Developed Country Business Cycles, Hing-Man Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

Less developed countries (LDCs) have experienced considerable business cycles in recent decades. This coincides with significant increases in their external debt to GDP ratios. Recent theoretical credit cycles literature suggests that indebtedness, and the resulting liquidity constraints, could explain LDC business cycles. This paper builds a macroeconomic model to trace the LDC income paths. In this model indebtedness and liquidity constraints reduce aggregate investment. We use the World Data (1995) to calibrate for the convergence parameter. It is found that LDC cycles are convergent and non-oscillatory, and indebtedness delays the return to long-term steady state income.

Networked Growth, Hing-Man Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper searches for a new growth engine in the new Info-Tech economy. IT-network effects are incorporated into Romer’s (1990) framework. Network effects support long-term steady state growth in per capita variables even without innovation, and growth rate increases with network externalities. Networked growth is sub-optimal, so should we break up an IT monopoly? To answer this we compare monopoly, Cournot and Bertrand set-ups. Cournot always ranks last socially, but Bertrand can be superior to monopoly if network effects are strong. When network interacts with Romer’s endogenous innovation, growth rate increases, probably by up to a percentage point per year.

Endogenous Growth And The Manufacturing Revolution, Hing-Man Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

Manufacturing is undergoing a revolution. Teamwork, job-rotation, multitasking are superseding the Taylorist mode of organization. The skilled workforce, armed with automated machines, is gradually substituting and replacing the unskilled. At the same time the U.S. economy is experiencing record breaking growth. Is faster growth a consequence of this manufacturing revolution? We study this by inserting dynamic career choice into endogenous growth by human capital accumulation. The answer is affirmative: The gradual substitution of the unskilled by the skilled boosts the long-term growth trend. The model also explains worsening wage inequality between as well as within the skilled groups.

Determinants Of Inflows Of Foreign Direct Investment In Selected Southeast Asian Countries, Rajapaksa Pathirannahelage Rathanasiri Rajapaksa

Student Works (2000-2009)

Southeast Asian countries experienced high growth of inflows of foreign direct investments in the past three decades. This study attempts to find the key factors that determine these inflows. In addition to that, the importance of such factors was investigated. Based on such findings, the future trend of FDI inflows to this region was also examined by forecasting. In many studies on this subject, the significance of various factors determinants of FDI was evaluated using econometric models. Results of such studies are often varied. Differences depend on the characteristics of the economies and the time examined. Using FDI inflows of …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 2001, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

The Report, as in the past, reviews the operations of the Central Bank of Nigeria in its efforts at discharging its mandate for the fiscal year 2001. The major objectives of monetary policy for 2001 were outlined in the Bank's Monetary Policy Circular No. 35, which aimed to maintain internal and external balance, contribute to sustainable output growth and poverty reduction, and focus on the banking system, rate, rate regime, viability, and stability. Key policy targets included growth in broad money, narrow money, aggregate bank credit, growth in bank credit to the government, private sector, inflation rate, and GDP growth. …

How Do Forecasts Respond To Changes In Monetary Policy?, Laurence Ball, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

Just as changes in atmospheric conditions affect weather forecasts, changes in monetary policy affect economic forecasts. When monetary policy shifts, forecasters change their predictions about growth and inflation. But does the economy change to the same extent that forecasts do? In this article, Laurence Ball and Dean Croushore examine forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to determine if forecasts and the economy respond in tandem or if there are significant differences.

Thirwall Project, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes.

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (2001, July 30). Handwritten notes titled “Thirwall project” [Unpublished handwritten notes].

• Contri, A., & Shaikh, A., PhD. (2001, January 10). Actual and B-o-P equilibrium growth rates, Bairam (1988) [Unpublished chart].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (2001, April 4). Rates of growth of exports (tables and graphs) [Unpublished tables and graphs].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (n.d.). Handwritten notes titled “questions: Thirwall project” [Unpublished handwritten notes].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (2001, April 24). Handwritten notes titled “Thirwall project” [Unpublished handwritten notes].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (2001, April 13). Handwritten notes on cointegration for import function …

Growth - Harrod, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (2000, December 2). Growth II/Harrod [Handwritten notes; unpublished manuscript].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (2000, June 30). A classical solution to Harrod stability [Unpublished manuscript].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (1998, September 24). Module on the foundations of growth theory [Unpublished manuscript].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (2000, January). The economic analysis of advanced capitalism II [Syllabus for Economics 205; unpublished manuscript].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (1994, April). A simple model of the reserve army of labor [Unpublished manuscript].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (1998, October 2). Comparing KK, NC, and classical/Marxian macrodynamics [Unpublished manuscript].

• Shaikh, …

An Analysis Of Structural Interdependence : The Malaysia Case Study, Cui Yan Ooi

Student Works (2000-2009)

Interdependency among sectors is the essential characteristic of modem production. This experience has suggested the importance of studying sectoral interdependence. One of the aims of this study is to estimate and measure the intersectoral output and employment linkages in the Malaysian economy by employing the input-output analysis which was introduced by Leontief and subsequently developed by various economists. Output linkages are used to identify key sectors in the Malaysian economy in terms of demand and supply generated. Employment linkages are used to identify key sectors for employment creation in Malaysia industry. Another objective of this study is to analysis the …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1999, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

The Annual Report contains details of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) financial activities during the 1999 accounting year in accordance with statutory requirement. During the period under review, the Bank carried out its core functions under CBN Decree No. 24, 1991, and the Banks and Other Financial Institutions (BOFI Decree No. 25, 1991). The CBN also performed developmental and technical assistance roles to contribute to economic development and capacity building. In 1999, the CBN carried out core functions, including issuance of currency notes and coins, maintaining Nigeria's external reserves, and promoting monetary stability. The Bank implemented policies to reduce excess …

The Challenge Of Administration By Regulation: Preliminary Findings Regarding The U.S. Government's Venture Capital Funds, Jonathan G.S. Koppell

Publications from President Jonathan G.S. Koppell

This article assesses the ability of elected officials to control public policy as implemented by public/private hybrid organizations, specifically, government venture capital funds. The study reveals greater control over OPIC investment funds than Enterprise Funds despite the existence of more traditional administrative tools of control for Enterprise Funds. This finding suggests that the regulatory infrastructure for hybrid organizations is more determinative of control than the existence (or lack) of traditional administrative control tools. Thus the challenge of hybrid government centers on the development of regulation as a substitute for administration.

Reproduction Growth Demand, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes.

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (n.d.). Reproduction growth demand for Eco 204/205 [Folder cover; unpublished manuscript].

• Erlich, A. (1967). Notes on Marxian model of capital accumulation [Reprinted article; publisher details not identified].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (1999, May 10). Long run tendencies [Handwritten notes discussing Duménil, Weeks, Moseley, and Foley; unpublished manuscript].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (1999, May 10). Note on Godley-Shaikh critique [Handwritten notes; unpublished manuscript].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (1988, June 17). Wandering around the warranted path: Simple solutions to the puzzle of Harrod’s knife-edge [Handwritten notes; unpublished manuscript].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (1999, February …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, June 1998, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Statistical Bulletin

The explanatory notes outline the methods for compiling financial, public finance, national accounts, and international trade statistics in Nigeria. Financial statistics are compiled from balance sheets and financial statements, covering lending and deposit interest rates, bank liquidity, and clearing house statistics. Public finance statistics include government revenue, expenditure, and debt, as well as debt conversion programs and promissory notes. National accounts are based on the System of National Accounts and include data on GDP, Gross Fixed Capital Formation, consumption expenditure, and Gross National Savings. International trade statistics measure the value and quantity of imports and exports, presented in the Standard …

Economic Crisis And Reform In Bulgaria, 1989-92, Jonathan B. Wight, M. Louise Fox

Economics Faculty Publications

Bulgaria's economy began a deep and prolonged collapse in 1989, exactly one hundred years after the noted Bulgarian novelist Ivan Vazov published his stirring novel opposing the tyranny of the Ottomans and warning of the mistaken road of socialism. The 1989 collapse was partially a reflection of the external political upheavals among Bulgaria's trading partners in Eastern Europe, which were rejecting socialist principles. But it was also a reflection of the weaknesses imbedded in the economy after 30 years of central planning. Political instability within Bulgaria, market reforms, and attempts at privatization contributed further to economic uncertainty resulting in a …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1997, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

In 1997, Nigeria experienced its third consecutive year of macroeconomic stability, resulting in modest improvement in domestic output growth and a persistently low inflation rate. The balance of payments position showed a modest surplus, and significant success was achieved in reducing domestic liquidity growth. Domestic output expanded further due to increased agricultural output and crude petroleum production, while the inflation rate declined further. Domestic output, measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), increased by 3.8% in 1997, as against the average growth rate of 2.3% in the preceding three years. The fight against inflation was highly successful, reaching a single …

Eco 210s General, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (1997, September 26). RAL [Handwritten notes; unpublished manuscript].

• Kuznets, S. (1965). Economic growth and income inequality. In Economic growth and structure: Selected essays (pp. xx–xx). W. W. Norton & Company.

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (1997, Summer). Economic issues in current political debates [Syllabus for Econ 125; unpublished manuscript].

• Shaikh, A. M. (1991, Fall). Curriculum vitae [Unpublished manuscript].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (1996, Summer). Economic issues in the upcoming elections [Syllabus for Econ 125; unpublished manuscript].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (1993, September 12). Macroeconomic references [Unpublished manuscript].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. …

Growth Lectures, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (1982, October). Growth lectures [Handwritten notes; unpublished manuscript].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (1998, September 24). Module on the foundations of growth theory [Reading list; unpublished manuscript].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (1982, October 15). Kalecki’s political aspects of full employment [Handwritten notes; unpublished manuscript].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (1991, November 21). Possibilities of growth in a capitalist economy: Historical overview [Diagram; unpublished manuscript].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (n.d.). Growth, Marx, and Harrod [Handwritten notes; unpublished manuscript].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (1996, May 28). Buenos Aires II: Growth, effective demand, crises [Handwritten notes; unpublished manuscript]. …

The Stock Market As A Leading Indicator: An Application Of Granger Causality, Brad Comincioli

University Avenue Undergraduate Journal of Economics

The purpose of this paper, then, is to evaluate stock prices as a leading indicator of economic activity. Time-series analysis and the notion of "Granger causality" are used in this project to estimate relationships between stock prices and the economy, and to see if they are consistent with theory. In this paper, we will explore the following questions. First, does the stock market lead the real economy, in the sense that variation in its past values explains some of the variation in the real economy? Second, does the stock market "Granger-cause" the real economy, in which case past values of …

Evaluating Mccallum's Rule For Monetary Policy, Dean D. Croushore, Tom Stark

Economics Faculty Publications

Some economists have proposed that the Federal Reserve follow a rigid rule for conducting monetary policy. A policy rule is a formula that tells the Fed how to set monetary policy. For example, in 1959 Milton Friedman argued that the Fed should increase the money supply a constant 4 percent each year to eliminate inflation and avoid destabilizing the economy. More recently, other economists have identified an additional benefit: a rule can eliminate the inflationary bias that could occur when discretionary monetary policy is used. Under a discretionary policy, decisions are made on a case-by-case basis.

But economists don't agree …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1994, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

In 1994, Nigeria faced economic challenges such as declining GDP growth, inflation, and a weakened external sector due to expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, political unrest, and labor issues. Despite this, the global economy saw stronger recovery in industrialized countries and developing regions like Asia and Latin America. The Nigerian economy struggled with slow growth, manufacturing decline, rising inflation, large budget deficit, and weakened external sector performance. Efforts to stabilize the exchange rate were hindered by differences between official and unofficial market rates. Internationally, there were improvements in the world economy with higher growth rates in developed and developing countries. …

Introducing: The Survey Of Professional Forecasters, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

Forecasts play a crucial role in the economy. Businesses won't hire workers as readily if they think the economy may go into a recession soon. Long-term interest rates will rise if people in the financial markets expect inflation to increase. And firms are less likely to borrow money for new investment spending today if they think interest rates will soon decline.

Forecasts are important for many decisions, but not many people have the knowledge and experience to forecast economic variables well. It makes sense, therefore, for people to rely on the forecasts of experts. One easy way to get these …

Foundations Of Modern Growth Theory, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (n.d.). Foundations of modern growth theory (3 lectures) [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (n.d.). U.S. government surplus or deficit relative to GDP (percent) [Chart]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (1988, November). The structure of Kalecki’s theory [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (1986, Spring; revised 1986, September). Harrodian instability [Typed notes for Eco. 205 with handwritten annotations]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (1984, December 5). The problem of growth [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (1984, September 4). The source of Harrod instability [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A., PhD. …

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Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1992., Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

In 1992, Nigeria's economy faced significant pressures but showed resilience, with rapid growth in output and economic liquidity. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) intensified efforts to achieve inflation and exchange rate stability while improving the efficiency of the financial sector. The financial sector experienced rapid growth and structural changes, with the strongest growth occurring in common unity banking and mortgage finance institutions. Monetary and credit aggregates expanded at unprecedented rates, matching the all-time highs of the oil boom era of the mid-seventies. Interest rates rose significantly, with both deposit and lending rates rising in tandem with the movements of …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, June 1992, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Statistical Bulletin

This volume data on various aspects of Nigeria's economy, including debt and banking sub-sector, central banking, financial markets, non-bank financial institutions, system clearinghouse activities, merchant and commercial banking, and public finance statistics for the year 1999. The data on financial institutions is based on the consolidation of commercial and merchant banks' first and second schedule statutory returns, computation of liquidity ratio, cash reserve ratio, loan/deposit ratio, proportion of loans to rural borrowers and small-scale enterprises, aggregate and sectoral distribution of credits, and the structure of licensed banks loans and advances. The data on financial markets is based on the consolidation …

India's Economic Cricis: Diagnosis And Treatment Edited By P. C. Jain, New Delhi: Cocept Publishing Company, 1992., Shymal Roy

IIMB Management Review

No abstract provided.

Structure Of The Indian Economy And The Relevance Of The Economic Reforms, R Vaidyanathan

IIMB Management Review

An Attempt has been made in this paper to highlight the role of unincorporated enterprises in the Indian economy and the relevance of the economic reforms currently underway. The share of the unincorporated sector in national income, in manufacturing and in activities like transport, trade, construction, etc, is analysed. Savings and capital formation in the unincorporated sector are detailed. Finally, the implications of the recent economic reforms in the context of this sector, are discussed.

India's Economic Situation: Problems And Prospects (16th Annual Convocation Address, 1991. Iimb), Manmohan Singh

IIMB Management Review

No abstract provided.

What Are The Costs Of Disinflation?, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

The Federal Reserve can use monetary policy to reduce the inflation rate, a process known as disinflation. Are the benefits of disinflation worth the costs? Proponents of disinflation argue that the long-run benefits of price stability, including lower interest rates, increased economic efficiency, and perhaps faster economic growth, greatly exceed the short-run costs. Opponents, of course, claim the opposite, usually arguing that the short-run costs in terms of higher unemployment and lost output would be immense.