Macroeconomics Commons^™

Microcredit Accessibility In Rural Households: Evidence From Indonesia, Danang Budi Santoso

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Extant literature suggests that microcredit may improve borrowers social and economic welfare. This study aimed to investigate the microcredit accessibility of rural households in Indonesia. Binary Logistic regression was used to distinguish the characteristics of microcredit borrowers and non-borrowers, and the factors affecting the approval of microcredit application. Primary data was collected through a survey on 488 rural households in Bantul, Yogyakarta. The empirical results suggested that age, marital status and education attainment significantly affect the characteristics of clients and non-clients of microcredit. The results also revealed that age of borrowers, household income, interest rates, and loan duration are key …

Does Gender Diversity In The Boardroom Improve Firm Performance? Evidence From Indonesia, Pananda Pasaribu

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study investigates board gender diversity in Indonesia's listed firms and its effect on firm performance from 2011-2016. After addressing the endogeneity of diversity, the results in this paper show that the proportion of female in the boardroom marginally improve firm performance. Firms with two or more female in the boardroom have a stronger impact on firm performance than firms with one female in the boardroom, consistent with the critical mass effect. Finally, certain sectors will gain more benefits of appointing females in the boardroom. The results suggest that increasing gender diversity in the boardrooms can have beneficial effects on …

The Effect Of Hedging With Financial Derivatives On Firm Value At Indonesia Stock Exchange, Prof. Dr. Budi Frensidy

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the effect of hedging for the risks of foreign currency, interest rate, and commodity price on firm value as measured by Tobin's Q. The findings reveal that hedging with derivative instruments is insignificantly related to firm value but significantly varied in financial risks. Hedging for foreign currency risk has a significantly positive relation to firm value, while hedging for interest rate and commodity price risk has no relation. Furthermore, this study provides a novelty compared to previous studies in the utilization of the extent of hedging as the variable to measure the implementation of hedging.

Promoting The Indonesian Special Economic Zones For Tourism: Lessons From Mandalika And Tanjung Kelayang, Latif Adam

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This paper aims to analyze the design and implementation of the policy to develop tourism special economic zones (TSEZs) in Indonesia with special reference to Mandalika and Tanjung Kelayang. Using descriptive analysis, it is revealed that these TSEZs have not attracted many investors yet. The policy design to promote the two TSEZs is unattractive, unclear, and at odds with the characteristics of the tourism sector. Furthermore, the implementing institutions have insufficient capacity and professionalism to implement the policy. Various critical actions are necessary to take. First, accelerating the provision of infrastructure. Second, clarifying several regulations to be in compliance with …

International Welfare Spillovers Of National Pension Schemes, James Staveley-O'Carroll, Olena Staveley-O'Carroll

Economics Department Working Papers

We employ a two-country overlapping-generations model to explore the international dimension of household portfolio choices induced by the asymmetric provision of government-run pensions. We study the resulting patterns of risk-sharing and the corresponding welfare effects on both home and foreign agents. Introducing the defined benefits pay-as-you-go system at home increases the welfare of all other agents at the expense of the home workers and improves the degree of intergenerational risk sharing abroad. Conversely, a defined contributions system leads to welfare losses of both home cohorts accompanied by gains abroad, but does increase the extent of intergenerational risk sharing at home.

Modeling The Economic Machine Using Bayesian Inference And Statistical Networks, And Optimal Portfolio Construction Using Operations Research, Richard Yang

ENGS 88 Honors Thesis (AB Students)

In this paper, we propose a network-based model to attempt to connect modern macroeconomic theory with real world economic observations and trends. We find that by extending macroeconomic theory with credit leveraging/deleveraging thresholds, we are able to explain economic cycles in addition to long-term growth. Furthermore, we specifically explore the growth-inflation view of the macro economy as a basis for optimal portfolio construction and efficient asset trading. Connecting our network-based macroeconomic model and our optimal portfolio construction algorithm, we create a novel macroeconomic asset-trading framework.

Financial Red Flags: Empirical Mapping Of Firm Political Preferences By Sector In Mexico, Ian Connors

Master's Theses

Can the stock market be used to determine the political preferences of individual economic sectors? This paper explores the conceptual relationship between electoral outcomes and financial markets in Mexico. Specifically, it analyzes how financial markets predict the expected effects of a given political platform on the performance of firms within specific sectors. To do this, the study used event-study methodology to calculate abnormal returns on stock prices across the nine sectors listed on the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores stock exchange following the historic election of leftist candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), On July 1, 2018. However, despite the uncertainty …

Hedge Funds In The Periphery: An Analysis Of Structures Influencing Fund Behavior In The Icelandic And Cypriot Financial Crises, Jameson K. Mah

Undergraduate Economic Review

Hedge funds are often viewed from a positive or negative lens in the public and academic forum. However, both of these perspectives neglect structuralist factors. This paper analyzes the effect of these antecedent economic, political, and legal structures. I argue that these structures are at the root of hedge fund behavior, particularly during financial crises. The financial crises of two peripheral countries, Iceland and Cyprus, are used as case studies to illustrate how hedge fund involvement diverges as a result of structural factors.

Given Today's New Wave Of Protectionsim, Is Antitrust Law The Last Hope For Preserving A Free Global Economy Or Another Nail In Free Trade's Coffin?, Allison Murray

Loyola of Los Angeles International and Comparative Law Review

No abstract provided.

Shapes And Transitions Of The Interest Rate Term Structure, Biwei Chen

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

I analyze different shapes of Treasury yield curves in order to better reflect and predict the U.S. economy. Since the late 1980s, macroeconomists have found that the slope of the yield curve predicts economic activity such as inflation, output growth, and recessions, but they have not fully examined the links between various shapes of yield curve and the macroeconomy. To fill the gap, I classify yield curve shapes with the U.S. Treasury yield data, detect the shape patterns over the business cycles, and map these shapes onto corresponding inflation and production states. Although the downward-sloping yield curve reliably predicts U.S. …

Structural Change, Productivity, And The Shift To Services: The Case Of Indonesia, Nabil Rizky Ryandiansyah

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Since Chenery & Syrquin (1975), the pattern of transition from agriculture-heavy economies to industry and then later to services has been central to growth literatures. But recent empirical works have casted doubts on whether developing countries are able to follow the same path. This paper analyzes whether structural change in Indonesia has been productivity-enhancing. This paper finds that structural change from 1998-2014 has not been able to generate impact on economy-wide productivity. This paper also explores possible determinants of the direction of structural change. This paper does not find commodity dependence nor human capital to have clear association with low …

A Comparative Analysis Between Islamic Banks And Conventional Banks In Indonesia Before And After Global Financial Crisis, Lina Nugraha Rani

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

The objective of this study is to elaborate the comparison and examine the stability level between Islamic and conventional banks operational in Indonesia during the period of before and after Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The impact of Global Financial Crisis on Islamic and conventional banks was analyzed using the tests of IRF (Impulse Response Function) and Variance Decomposition Analysis (VDA) which existed in the VAR (Vector Autoregressive) Method. The pre (GFC) period used in this study is between January 2003 and July 2007, whereas the post GFC is between August 2007 and December 2016. The results of this study are …

Financial Development And Income Inequality In Indonesia: A Sub-National Level Analysis, Harry Aginta

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study constructs financial inclusion indicator and analyzes the link of financial inclusion and income inequality for 33 provinces in Indonesia. By using Fixed Effect Panel Model, we find financial inclusion appears to have insignificant effect to on inequality at national level. While at sub-national level, adding other variables such as GRDP, years of schooling, and trade openness, we find financial inclusion appears to have negative and significant impact on income inequality in manufacture and mining-based provinces, not in agriculture-based. The results suggest that financial inclusion helps to lower income inequality when economic condition encourage people to utilize financial access …

Corruption And Foreign Direct Investment (Fdi) In Asean-5: A Panel Evidence, Bakri Abdul Karim Mr, Zulkefly Abdul Karim

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This paper examines the effects of corruption on the inflow of FDI in ASEAN-5 countries by controlling twomacroeconomic variables namely Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and inflation. Using a static panel dataestimation, the results show the significant relationship between corruption and Gross Domestic Product(GDP) on the inflow of FDI in ASEAN-5. This results indicate that less corrupted countries and largermarket size would attract more FDI inflows. The policy implications from this study suggests that ASEAN-5 governments need to have concerted and continues efforts in improving the integrity and credibility of theiradministration and transactions. In addition, maintaining their sustainable of economic growth …

Availability Of Infrastructure For Poverty Reduction In Indonesia: Spatial Panel Data Analysis, Galih Pramono

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Poverty is a key issue in various developing countries, including Indonesia. One of the efforts to reduce poverty is building the infrastructure. Therefore, this study aims to determine the effect of infrastructure on the level of poverty by considering the spatial effect in the period 2011-2015. This study applies spatial panel data analysis with Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) model with fixed effect. The findings show that the infrastructure of electricity, health, sanitation, and building of senior high school has a significant negative impact on the percentage of the underprivileged people. Meanwhile, the building of elementary school has a significant positive impact …

Regulations, Governance, And Resolution Of Non-Performing Loan: Evidence From An Emerging Economy, Abu S. Amin, Mahmood Osman Iman, Mahfuja Malik

WCBT Faculty Publications

How do banks resolve a severe bad loan problem in a capital-constrained, low-income economy when a government bailout is not an option? We address this question by examining new evidence from a sharp decline in bad loan ratios in a panel of conventional commercial banks in Bangladesh. On the aggregate level, the bad loan ratio in this market has dropped from 41% in 1999 to only 10% in 2012. We find that at a micro level, this dramatic improvement is associated with bank management quality and internal governance that were substantially enhanced during a decade of large-scale regulatory reforms. The …

Policy, Aggregate Productivity And Misallocation, Guowen Chen

Theses and Dissertations--Economics

This dissertation explores the effects of factors such as industrial policy and listing on the stock market on manufacturing firms’ profitability and productivity.

The second chapter investigates the effect of industrial policies on misallocation using a rich data-set of Chinese firms. Using a difference-in-difference approach, I provide evidence that government policies (i.e. the 10^th Five Year Plan) favoring particular industries lead to increased misallocation (i.e., an increase in the dispersion of revenue productivity across firms in four-digit industries). Moreover, the differential changes between industries supported and not supported by the 10^th Five Year Plan are quantitatively large and …

What Do We Know About The Recent Performance Of Indian Banks?, Laira Aggarwal

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the performance of Indian banks by studying the effects of recent reforms and macroeconomic events. Indian banks went through a period of reforms in the past twenty years. The impact of these reforms and major macroeconomic events has been examined using time-series analysis. Event studies offer additional perspective on the short-run effect of the events on different types of Indian banks. Although, the event dates are not all statistically significant in the time-series regressions, the demonetization of 2016 is significant in the event study analysis. Thus, while reforms and events have immediate impact on the performance of …

Global Capital Flows, Time Varying Fundamentals And Transitional Exchange Rate Dynamics: An Ms-Var Approach, Süleyman Hilmi Kal, Ilhami Gunduz

Publications and Research

This paper studies whether dynamic relationship between exchange rate and economic and financial fundamentals vary depending on exchange rate is overvalued and undervalued with respect to its fundamental value. To achieve this, we implement two-state Markov Switching Vector Auto Regression (MSVAR) model with time varying transition probabilities to investigate whether the relationship among exchange rate, interest rate and inflation dynamics depend on overvaluation and undervaluation of exchange rates for the pre-crises period between years 1972-2009. We govern the transition between the undervalued and overvalued states by using Sharpe Ratios of debt and equity investments of the currency to assess whether …

Essays On Capital Structure Of Nations, Giovanni Perez

LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

No abstract provided.

International Risk Sharing In Overlapping Generations Models, James Staveley-O'Carroll, Olena M. Staveley-O'Carroll

Economics Department Working Papers

We present a solution to the Backus-Smith puzzle that, instead of relying on extreme parameter values or complex modeling assumptions, simply switches the framework from infinitely lived agents to overlapping generations. Young agents face non-diversifiable wage risk that leads to a low degree of risk sharing within each country. Subsequently, international price movements are not sufficient to achieve the high consumption-real exchange rate correlation produced in standard infinitely lived agent DSGE models.

Nonlinearities In The Real Exchange Rates: New Evidence From Developed And Developing Countries, Yamin S. Ahmad, Ming Chien Lo, Olena M. Staveley-O'Carroll

Economics Department Working Papers

This paper investigates nonlinearities in the dynamics of real exchange rates. We use Monte Carlo simulations to establish the size properties of the Teräsvirta-Anderson (1992) and the Teräsvirta (1994) test, when the dynamics of the real exchange rate is influenced by an exogenous process. In addition, we examine the modification proposed by Ahmad, Lo and Mykhaylova (2013; Journal of International Economics) to show that the modified nonlinearity test performs much better than the original in both Monte Carlo exercises and in the actual data on 1431 bilateral real exchange rate series. Finally, we investigate the dynamics of the real exchange …

Does Manufacturing Sophistication Lead To Higher Demand For Vocational Workers? Evidence From Indonesia, Padang Wicaksono, Lionel Priyadi

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Indonesia post-crisis manufacturing growth has been dominated by technologically sophisticated industry. Hypothetically, this development would increase the demand for skilled and more specialized workers like vocational school graduates. However, statistical evidences show that manufacturing sophistication stimulated by integration with the Global Production Network increase demand for vocational as well as general high school graduates. Moreover, higher demand does not necessarily result in sustainable career prospect, as many vocational graduates still have limited opportunity to improve their skills while climbing the seniority ladder possibly caused by shifting Global Value Chain from export-oriented toward domestic market-oriented that affect the industry's technological complexity.

The Relationship Of Vat Rate And Revenues In The Case Of Informality, Riatu M. Qibthiyyah

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study explored relationship between tax rate and revenues in the case of VAT, one of few type of consumption taxes that is considered to be a broad-based tax. Based on a larger set of countries - in comparison to previous studies, this study shows VAT rate has an inverted U-shaped relationship to VATÂ revenues, confirming the Laffer Curve theory. Exploring further on the effect of informality to maximum VAT rate, we found that higher informality will reduce government flexibility in its effort to increase tax rate. Furthermore, openness has significant and positive effect on VAT revenues performance, and tax …

Income Inequality Between Formal-Informal Employees Based On Education Group, Dias Satria

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Integrally, the informal sector deals with the formal sector with pro-cyclical nature or as a complementary sector. Such conditions allow for wage disparity between sectors even in the same education group. Thus, this study seeks to determine the determinants of wage inequality between formal and informal employees in skilled and unskilled workers in Indonesia in 2017 using Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition. The results showed that the discrimination factor had a greater influence than the endowment factor on wage inequality and the endowment factors that contributed to the increase in wage inequality between the two groups were age squared, experience, and job training.

Recent Developments In Indonesia's Macro-Economy And Trade, Q1-2018, Febrio Kacaribu

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This paper discusses Indonesia's macroeconomic and trade development in the first quarter of 2018. The macroeconomic data shows that the industrial growth was inhibited by regulatory regime inconsistency, while consumption growth still lagged overall GDP growth, and investment growth tended to rise. The trade data shows that the non-oil-and-gas commodities dominated its export, although the commodities terms-of-trade declined. Indonesia's imports were mostly used as raw and auxiliary materials for the input of domestic production. The data also reveals that the larger the firms, the stronger tendency that they have comparative advantage in capital-intensive commodities, and vice versa.

Modification Of The Regulatory Impact Assessment On Indonesia's Economic Policies, Kiki Verico

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This paper modifies the Regulatory Impact Assessment (RIA) method in Indonesia's trade, investment, and industrial incentive policies. First, it analyses the Indonesian Bilateral Trade Agreements of Indonesia - Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (IJEPA) and Indonesia - Pakistan Preferential Trade Agreement (IP-PTA) This paper found if the trading partner has GNI per capita higher than Indonesia's then the expected outcome was the increasing FDI inflows and if its GNI per capita lower therefore the most top foreseeable result was the rising net trade balance of Indonesia. Second, it analyses industrial sector incentive analysis and found that firms prefer supply-side than fiscal …

Essays In Business Cycles And Asset Pricing, Ruiyang Hu

Economics Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation investigates several key macroeconomic and asset pricing topics, with a particular interest in exploring the underlying driving forces of business cycles and asset market fluctuations. The dissertation includes three chapters, with the first two chapters solo-authored by me and the third chapter co-authored with Dr. Carlos Zarazaga.

The first chapter develops a dynamic and stochastic general equilibrium model, and exploits Bayesian inference methods to investigate the major sources of fluctuations in aggregate variables and asset prices. Taking into account the possibility that the growth of total factor productivity, labor-augmenting technology and investment-specific technology might consist of permanent and …

Economic Impact Of Imposing Excise Tax On Plastic Bottles Of Drinks, Eugenia Mardanugraha

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This research simulates the effect of imposing excise tax on plastic container of drinks towards economic performance of beverage industry in Indonesia and governments ´Zs tax revenue. The results showed that by imposing excise tax on plastic cups and plastic bottles the government would lose tax revenue from value added tax (PPN) and corporate income tax (PPh badan) more than they gain additional revenue from excise tax. Hence, imposing excise tax on drink containers should serve a clear purpose and an undeniable reason. This paper recommends the government to develop proper excise infrastructure to extend the goods or services to …

On Nonlinear Relationship Between Inflation And Economic Growth: A Study Of Asean-5 Countries Period 2000€“2016, Ambar Galih, Sugiharso Safuan

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Money (inflation) has played a vital role in economic growth. However, the nexus between them has always drawn mesmerizing debates. From the thoughts of Classical and Keynes which argued the existence of money neutrality, to the level of empirical studies which find either positive or negative correlation between inflation and economic growth. Recent studies concerning the debatable relationship have evolved it into a hypothesis whether the relation is nonlinear with a threshold or a point where the link switches. This study aims to re-examine the causality between inflation and economic growth in ASEAN-5 countries period 2000Q1-2016Q4. The results based on …