Macroeconomics Commons^™

Gender Differences In Children's Non-Leisure Activities: A Decomposition Analysis, Dayang Haszelinna Abang Ali

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

The prevalence of son preference indicates that girls will have less leisure time compared to boys. This study aims to examine gender differences in weekly hours in schooling, housework, and working among children in Indonesia using Tobit Model and decomposition model of Bauer & Sinning (2005), to test whether son preference explains the differences. The dataset was drawn from the fourth wave of Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) in 2007. The results show significant gender differences in housework and working for children aged 5-14 years and insignificant gender gap in schooling for both age groups. These results confirm the existence …

The Impact Of Entrepreneurship On Economic Performance In Indonesia, Yohanes Kadarusman

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Entrepreneurship is claimed to have a positive and significant effect on economic growth in developed countries, but less so in developing countries. Using the growth model, this study examines the impact of entrepreneurship on economic performance in Indonesia as indicated by economic growth and income per-capita from 1985 to 2017. The estimation result confirms the non-significant effect of the growth of entrepreneurial ventures on the growth of GDP per-capita. However, the accumulation of the ventures has a positive and significant effect on the level of GDP per capita. The different typology of entrepreneurial ventures in Indonesia provides some insight to …

Efficiency Gain Argument Of Fiscal Federalism And Economic Growth: Evidence From Five Selected Developing Federal Economies, Hyacinth E. Ichoku, Walter O. Ugwuoke

Bullion

This paper investigated efficiency gain argument of fiscal federalism and economic growth with evidence from five selected developing federal economies. The curiosity is to ascertain whether the efficiency gain –the fundamental argument why countries adopt fiscal federalism is justified in these economies. The paper uses stochastic frontier model to achieve this objective. The evidence from the selected developing federal economies revealed diverging results. While in Nigeria, Ethiopia and India there is more expenditure decentralization than revenue decentralization suggesting that efficiency gains from fiscal federalism may remain elusive, in Brazil and South Africa there is more revenue decentralization than expenditure decentralization …

The Impact Of External Debt On Agricultural Production In Nigeria (1980-2016): Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling, Aishatu U. Yerima, Hussaini M. Tahir

Bullion

The study analyzed the impact of external debt on Nigeria's agricultural production from 1980 to 2016 using secondary data obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin and the World Development Indicators (WDI). Augmented DickeyFuller unit root test and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing approach to co-integration were utilized, to achieve the objectives of the study. Empirical results revealed that the variables were cointegrated, indicating that they exhibited long run relationship, both in the short and the long run. External debt stock (EDS) had a significant positive impact on agricultural production (AGP), indicating that EDS positively impacted …

Essays In Financial Economics And Applied Macroeconomics, Marius Mihai

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters that cover topics in finance and macroeconomics.

Chapter 1 - Do Credit Booms Predict U.S. Recessions?

This paper investigates the role of bank credit in predicting U.S. recessions since the 1960s in the context of a bivariate probit model. A set of results emerge. First, credit booms are shown to have strong positive effects in predicting declines in the business cycle at horizons ranging from six to nine months. Second, by isolating the effect of credit booms, I identify their contributions to recession probabilities which range between three and four percentage points at a …

Irving Fisher, The Debt-Deflation Theory, And The Crisis Of 2008-2009, Zacharie Quiviger

Undergraduate Economic Review

Irving Fisher’s 1932 Booms and Depressions presents a fully specified, nine-pronged model of financial crises that has been widely forgotten by modern macroeconomists. This article builds on the renewed interest in Fisher’s Debt-Deflation Theory to explore its pertinence to the Great Recession. By parsing through macroeconomic data from the 2000s, it finds evidence of debt-deflation spiraling and of the nine Fisherian “main factors” co-varying as the author had predicted during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. The article concludes in assessing the uses of Fisher’s work in current macroeconomics and in arguing for a greater consideration of its insights.

Shocks To Aggregate Demand And Aggregate Supply In The Midst Of Covid-19, Anna M. Gellerman

Publications and Research

COVID-19 sent shockwaves throughout the economy, changing the amounts of goods and services distributed and altering the demand. This article discusses the negative demand shock and adverse supply shock that the U.S. economy faced in 2020, and the policies that the government implemented to reverse these effects.

Addressing Urban Income Inequality Through Education: A Case Study In Atlanta, Garrett Bronn

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

For decades, the income inequality gap between the rich and poor has continued to expand dramatically, with criticism of existing education systems often at the heart of the issue. Large urban cities are commonly at the forefront of the issue, given the plethora of teacher strikes in recent years. Events such as the 11-day Chicago teacher’s strike in October of 2019 that idled academics and college prep for 350,000 students, have highlighted many current education issues (Hauck, 2019). With underfunded and poorly equipped middle and high schools, students in poor and minority neighborhoods in cities are less prepared academically, ill …

Restructuring And Forgiveness In Financial Crises D: The Japanese Financial Crisis Of The 1990s, Christian M. Mcnamara, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

In November 1997 the Japanese government confronted a problem of enormous proportions when the turmoil that had been roiling the financial markets since the collapse of a real estate and stock market asset bubble in 1990 reached a crescendo with the failure of four major financial institutions in quick succession in the space of a month. Prior to these failures, the damage done by the collapsing bubble had seemed to be limited to certain segments of the financial landscape, and the government’s response consisted largely of targeted intervention when necessary for clearly insolvent financial institutions, with a more comprehensive approach …

Restructuring And Forgiveness In Financial Crises B: The Asian Crisis Of 1997, June Rhee, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

Asia’s economy, Thailand in particular, was booming when the financial crises hit in the 1990s. However, troubles were brewing underneath the seemingly buoyant economy. With a fragile financial system and ineffective domestic government responses to these troubles, an exchange rate crisis took over Thailand, and this crisis started a financial contagion in the neighboring countries. This case reviews the background and domestic government responses to contain the crisis, and the international intervention provided by the International Monetary Fund including the assistance and the required reforms accompanying the support.

Guarantees And Capital Infusions In Response To Financial Crises C: U.S. 2009 Stress Test, Chase P. Ross, June Rhee, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

When President Obama took office in 2009, the Treasury focused on restarting bank lending and repairing the ability of the banking system as a whole to perform the role of credit intermediation. In order to do so, the Treasury needed to raise public confidence that banks had sufficient buffers to withstand even a very adverse economic scenario, especially given heightened uncertainty surrounding the outlook of the U.S. economy and potential losses in the banking system. The Supervisory Capital Assessment Program (SCAP)—the so-called “stress tests”—sought to rigorously measure the resilience of the largest bank holding companies. Those found to have insufficient …

Guarantees And Capital Infusions In Response To Financial Crises B: U.S. Guarantees During The Global Financial Crisis, June Rhee, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

During 2008-09, the federal government extended multiple guarantee programs in an effort to restore the financial market and contain the panic and crisis in the market. For example, the Treasury provided a temporary guarantee program for the money market funds, the FDIC decided to stand behind certain debts and non-interest-bearing transaction accounts, and the Treasury, the FDIC, and the Federal Reserve agreed to share losses in certain assets belonging to Citigroup. This case reviews these guarantee programs implemented during the global financial crisis by the government and explores the different rationale that shaped certain design features of each program.

Trade Financing In Emerging Markets, Jamie L. Morris

Senior Theses

Businesses need capital to initiate trades, drive growth, and produce profit, but unfortunately, not all companies can access to capital easily. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), although critical to the global economy, typically have trouble funding trades because of a lack of creditworthiness. This problem worsens for SMEs in emerging markets in volatile economies with political instability (“Trade finance and SMEs” 2016, p.11-21). In this study, we analyze how third-party trade finance companies can help finance trades more easily for SMEs in eight (8) emerging markets: Kenya, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Chile, Peru, Thailand, Cambodia, and Indonesia. We use a unique source …

The Sustainability Of Child Protection Services In The Republic Of Kosovo, Shpetim Bylykbashi

Capstone Collection

Today, in Kosovo, are services provided for the children most in need sustainable? Do these services have stable and long-term funding? Did the decentralization of the Kosovo government strengthen or weaken the existing child protective environment? In an attempt to answer these questions, a review of available literature was completed, as well as direct interviews conducted with relevant stakeholders engaged in Kosovo’s child protection services at both the governmental and civil society levels. The main finding of my research is that vulnerable children in Kosovo, such as children without parental care, children with special needs, and child victims of domestic …

Portfolio Capital Inflows And Banking Crisis In Emerging Market And Developing Economies (Mdes): Bank-Level Evidence From Nigeria, Tijjani Mohammed Jume

Bullion

The objective of the paper is to assess the effects of foreign portfolio capital surge on the banking sector in Nigeria from 2005 - 2018. Using a simple trend analysing a static general equilibrium framework, the paper reveals that portfolio capital inflows, in the wake of monetary policy independence in Nigeria, led to portfolio capital surge which resulted to credit boom and speculative transactions in the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) leading to assets price bubble. When the bubble burst during the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2007, and thereafter in 2014, portfolio capital inflows reversed and banking stocks prices declined …

Basel Iii D: Swiss Finish To Basel Iii, Christian M. Mcnamara, Natalia Tente, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

After the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) introduced the Basel III framework in 2010, individual countries confronted the question of how best to implement the framework given their unique circumstances. Switzerland, with a banking industry that is both heavily concentrated and very large relative to the size of its overall economy, faced a special challenge. It ultimately adopted what is sometimes referred to as the “Swiss Finish” to Basel III—enhanced requirements applicable to Switzerland’s “too-big-to-fail” banks Credit Suisse and UBS that go beyond the base requirements established by the BCBS. Yet the prominent role played by relatively new contingent …

Jpmorgan Chase London Whale Z: Background & Overview, Arwin G. Zeissler, Rosalind Bennett, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

In December 2011, the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer of JPMorgan Chase (JPM) instructed the bank’s Chief Investment Office to reduce the size of its Synthetic Credit Portfolio (SCP) during 2012, so that JPM could decrease its Risk-Weighted Assets as the bank prepared to adopt the impending Basel III bank capital regulations. However, the SCP traders were also told to minimize the trading costs incurred to reduce Risk-Weighted Assets, while still maintaining the opportunity to profit from unexpected corporate bankruptcies. In an attempt to balance these competing objectives, head SCP derivatives trader Bruno Iksil suggested in January 2012 …

Incorporating Macroprudential Financial Regulation Into Monetary Policy, Aaron Klein

Journal of Financial Crises

This paper proposes two insights into financial regulation and monetary policy. The first enhances understanding the relationship between them, building on the automobile metaphor that describes monetary policy: when to accelerate or brake for curves miles ahead. Enhancing the metaphor, financial markets are the transmission. In a financial crisis, markets cease to function, equivalent to a transmission shifting into neutral. This explains both monetary policy’s diminished effectiveness in stimulating the economy and why the financial crisis shock to real economic output greatly exceeded central bank forecasts.

The second insight is that both excess leverage and fundamental mispricing of asset values …

Culture Of Countries And Country-Index Crash Risk, Jason Petri

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

Previously crash- risk studies have focused on assessing at the firm level the likelihood of a firm’s equity to crash (a rapid decline in value), apart from the dynamics of its respective country-level market. In this study, however, I examine the determinants of an overall countrylevel equity crash apart from the dynamics of the global market. I will argue that this is a very different focus of analysis that will provide valuable information to both investors and policy makers. Expansion of credit and subsequent equity-market bubbles and crashes are of particular concern to foreign direct investors (FDI), as country-level equity …

The Contribution Of Islamic Banks Towards The Achievement Of Sustainable Development Goals: The Case Of Indonesia, Nunung Ghoniyah

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study aims to strengthen the opinion that the main goal of Islamic banks is not to obtain profit, but rather to improve the standards of living. In this study, the evidence is obtained by processing secondary data on Islamic banks in Indonesia during the period of 2011 to 2017 by using panel data regression model. The results of the data analysis support the hypothesis that banks whose goals are aimed at falah will demand lower payment obligations from customers, allowing the customers to manage funds in the real sector. The implication is also strengthened by good financial quality control, …

The Effect Of School Operational Assistance Program On Investment In Education By Households: Evidence From Indonesia, Nia Pramita Sari

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

The School Operational Assistance Program, referred to as BOS, is a demand intervention program indirectly provided by the government of Indonesia to students through schools, started in July 2005. This paper examines the impact of BOS on educational investment by households and other expenditure such as food and non-food consumption. Using the observations of 1,161 households with at least one member studying in public school from the fourth wave of the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS 4), we discover that BOS is effective in relaxing household's budget constraint, thus increasing educational investment by households. We also discover that households with …

Book Review: Indonesia's Digital-Based Economic Transformation: The Emergence Of New Technological, Business, Economic, And Policy Trends In Indonesia, Anika Widiana

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

No abstract provided.

Utilization Of Free Trade Agreement In Indonesia: Firm-Level Data Analysis Of The Yogyakarta Special Region, Nadira Asrifa Nasution

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study aims to observe the utilization of Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in the Special Region of Yogyakarta. The findings are obtained by processing primary data collected from in-depth interviews and a survey of firms by applying descriptive analysis. The findings show that FTA is utilized by merely 44% of the total population of 64 firms in Yogyakarta. The benefits of FTA obtained by firms include market access, ease of processing custom documents, and lower preferential tariffs. However, the disadvantages include onerous document requirements, limited information, and difficulties in understanding regulations. Another issue related to the utilization of FTA concerns …

Corruption And Economic Growth In Asean Member Countries, Anisah Alfada

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study examines the effect of corruption on economic growth and determines the corruption threshold in nine ASEAN member countries in 1999-2016. This study assesses whether the effect of corruption is growth-enhancing or growth-deteriorating in different corruption threhsolds using a sample-splitting and threshold model. In contrast to the existing literature, this study does not group countries based on income level and therefore can reveal the corruption level of a country relative to a corruption threshold. The estimation results show that the adverse effect of corruption on economic growth is stronger for countries with corruption levels above the second threshold of …

European Central Bank Tools And Policy Actions A: Open Market Operations, Collateral Expansion And Standing Facilities, Chase P. Ross, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

Beginning in August 2007, the European Central Bank (ECB) responded to market turmoil with a variety of standard and non-standard monetary policy tools. This case discusses the operational framework of the ECB’s open market operation tools and standing facilities before and during the financial crisis. Specifically, this case describes the ECB’s use of its main refinancing and longer-term refinancing operations, the expansion of collateral eligible for use in Eurosystem credit operations, and the ECB’s standing facilities, including its marginal lending and deposit facilities.

Ireland And Iceland In Crisis C: Iceland’S Landsbanki Icesave, Arwin G. Zeissler, Thomas Piontek, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

At year-end 2005, almost all of the total assets of Iceland’s banking system were concentrated in just three banks (Glitnir, Kaupthing, and Landsbanki). These banks were criticized by certain financial analysts in early 2006 for being overly dependent on wholesale funding, much of it short-term, that could easily disappear if creditors’ confidence in these banks faltered for any reason. Landsbanki, followed later by Kaupthing and then Glitnir, responded to this criticism and replaced part of their wholesale funding by using online accounts to gather deposits from individuals across Europe. In Landsbanki’s case, these new deposits were marketed under the name …

Ireland And Iceland In Crisis A: Increasing Risk In Ireland, Arwin G. Zeissler, Karen Braun-Munzinger, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

Ireland went from being the poorest member of the European Economic Community in 1973 to enjoying the second highest per-capita income among European countries by 2007. Healthy growth in the 1990s eventually gave way to a concentrated boom in property-related lending in the 2000s. The growth in the aggregate loan balances of Ireland’s six major banks greatly exceeded the growth in gross domestic product (GDP); as a result, bank loan balances grew from 1.1 times GDP in 2000 to over 2.0 times GDP by 2007. Given the small size of the domestic retail depositor base, the Irish banks increasingly funded …

How Do Interest Rates Affect Market Capitalization Growth Rates In The Us?, Philip Carolin

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper investigates how interest rates affect the market capitalization growth rate of individual companies in the US. The research will distinguish itself from previous literature as it analyzes company and macroeconomic data after the 2008 recession. This is particularly interesting as interest rates have been historically low in this time period. Previous research suggests that since the Great Recession the effects of interest rate changes have decreased. On the contrary I will argue that the effects of interest rates still appear to be significant and substantial when explaining the market capitalization growth rate.

The ‘Security Pacific Letter’: Estimating The Causal Effect Of Securitization On Banks’ Systemic Exposure, Paul-Angelo Dell'isola

Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Politics, Economics and World Affairs

This paper aims to test the hypothesis of the ‘Safe Asset narrative’

which states that banks became manufacturers of pseudo safe assets to meet

a global shortage of safe assets in the pre-crisis period. In this narrative,

securitization is the mechanism which enables banks to become underwriters

of safe assets. This paper takes this hypothesis to the data and attempts to

estimate the causal effect of securitization on banks’ systemic exposure. In

particular, this paper exploits a regulatory change that occurred in 1987 when

the OCC expanded the scope of assets US national banks could securitize. By

using state-chartered banks …

Economic Inequality, Regional Development, And Internal Migration In Indonesia, Khoirunurrofik Khoirunurrofik

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study aims to probe the determinants of inter-provincial migration flows in Indonesia and how economic and development changes affect migration patterns. We employ three census periods, 1990, 2000, and 2010. Our study finds that an increase in relative inequality between origin and destination provinces decreases inter-provincial migration and relatively high distance elasticity in Indonesia leads to high migration cost. People are more inclined to migrate due to push factors as opposed to pull factors from the destination region, thus indicating a strong relationship between the level of regional development and the willingness of people to migrate.