Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®

Macroeconomics Commons™

Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®

Business

Institution
Keyword
Publication Year
Publication
Publication Type
File Type

Articles 301 - 330 of 412

Full-Text Articles in Macroeconomics

Macroeconomic Fluctuations As Sources Of Luck In Ceo Compensation, Hsin-Hui Chiu, Lars Oxelheim, Clas Wihlborg, Jianhua Zhang Dec 2014

Macroeconomic Fluctuations As Sources Of Luck In Ceo Compensation, Hsin-Hui Chiu, Lars Oxelheim, Clas Wihlborg, Jianhua Zhang

Business Faculty Articles and Research

Macroeconomic fluctuations in interest rates, exchange rates, and inflation can be considered sources of good or bad “luck” for corporate performance if management is unable to adjust operations to these fluctuations. Based on a sample of 2,091 US firms, we decompose the impacts of macroeconomic fluctuations on three measures of CEO compensation. Our study provides empirical support for the importance of considering macroeconomic fluctuations in designing CEO incentive schemes. It adds to the managerial power literature on moral hazard and CEO compensation by pinpointing the obvious risk that the CEO in an asymmetric and non-linear reward system will be inclined …

Go to article

A Closer Look At The Impact Of Quantitative Easing On The Capital Markets: Garch Analysis Of The Exchange Traded Funds Market, Nicholas R. Duafala Nov 2014

A Closer Look At The Impact Of Quantitative Easing On The Capital Markets: Garch Analysis Of The Exchange Traded Funds Market, Nicholas R. Duafala

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper analyzes the effects of quantitative easing (QE) on the capital markets by modeling exchange traded funds (ETFs) returns using a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) methodology. The results show that the 10-Year Treasury yields are significant in the returns of some sectors of the economy more so than others, and the Federal Funds Futures trading volume is significant in all ETFs return volatility. The implications of these results not only provide information about the reaction of the ETF market and QE, but also provide insight for developing investment strategies.

Go to article

Do Hitters Boost Their Performance During Their Contract Years?, Heather M. O'Neill Oct 2014

Do Hitters Boost Their Performance During Their Contract Years?, Heather M. O'Neill

Business and Economics Faculty Publications

Each season, baseball fans and journalists alike identify which players are in the final years of their contracts because a lot rides on how the players produce in their “contract year.” Will a player boost his effort and performance in an effort to improve his value and bargaining power? Or will he crumble under the pressure? Or are players’ performances uncorrelated with where they stand in their contract cycles?

Go to article

Resolution Of Bad Loan Problem: Bank-Level Evidence From A Low-Income Country, Abu S. Amin, Lucy Chernykh, Mahmood Osman Imam Jul 2014

Resolution Of Bad Loan Problem: Bank-Level Evidence From A Low-Income Country, Abu S. Amin, Lucy Chernykh, Mahmood Osman Imam

WCBT Faculty Publications

How do banks resolve a severe bad loan problem in a capital-constrained, low income country when a government bailout is not an option? We address this question by examining new evidence of a sharp decline in bad loan ratios in a panel of domestic banks in Bangladesh. On the aggregate level, the share of nonperforming loans in this market has dropped six fold, from above 41% in 1999 to below 7% in 2010. Notably, this dramatic improvement did not involve the creation of any centralized asset management facilities but relied on the bank management and governance reforms. We find that …

Go to article

Food Imports Under Foreign Exchange Constraints In The Cfa’S Franc Zone Of Sub-Saharan Africa (Ssa), Seydina Ousmane Sene Jan 2014

Food Imports Under Foreign Exchange Constraints In The Cfa’S Franc Zone Of Sub-Saharan Africa (Ssa), Seydina Ousmane Sene

Theses and Dissertations--Agricultural Economics

To respond to the high imported food prices in their domestic markets, net food importing countries in the Communauté Financière Africaine (CFA) zone[1] are adjusting their import tariffs and homologate domestic prices of imported commodities such as rice, wheat, maize, and sugar. This research uses a multivariate specification of error correction model (VECM) of estimation to investigate the link between food imports, world price index of rice, wheat, maize and sugar, real effective exchange rates, domestic food production, GDP, and trade openness in the short and long run. The data are on each homogenous commodity from 1969 to 2012. …

Go to article

Does U.S. Macroeconomic News Make Emerging Financial Markets Riskier?, Esin Cakan, Nadia Doytch, Kamal P. Upadhyaya Jan 2014

Does U.S. Macroeconomic News Make Emerging Financial Markets Riskier?, Esin Cakan, Nadia Doytch, Kamal P. Upadhyaya

Publications and Research

This study analyzes the impacts of US macroeconomic announcement surprises on the volatility of twelve emerging stock markets by employing asymmetric GJR-GARCH model. The model includes both positive and negative surprises about inflation and unemployment rate announcements in the U.S. We find that volatility shocks are persistent and asymmetric. Asymmetric volatility increases with bad news on US inflation in five out of the twelve countries studied and it increases with a bad news on U.S. unemployment in four out of twelve countries. Asymmetric volatility decreases with good news about US employment situation in eight countries out of twelve countries. Such …

Go to article

Mergers & Abenomics: The Determinants Of M&A In Japan's New Economy, Ethan S. Hallberg Jan 2014

Mergers & Abenomics: The Determinants Of M&A In Japan's New Economy, Ethan S. Hallberg

CMC Senior Theses

This paper investigates the influence of various macroeconomic variables on Japan’s merger and acquisition (M&A) activity, both in terms of total deal value and total number of deals. Looking at monthly data from June 1997 to December 2013, I use econometric time-series analysis to find that: First, total deal value per month is not well explained by our macroeconomic variables, but about half of the variation in number of deals per month can be explained by our dataset. Second, the most important determinant in the total number of deals per month during our period is the level of national debt, …

Go to article

Macroeconomic Variables Effect On Us Market Volatility Using Mc-Garch Model, Jang Hyung Cho, Ahmed Elshahat Jan 2014

Macroeconomic Variables Effect On Us Market Volatility Using Mc-Garch Model, Jang Hyung Cho, Ahmed Elshahat

Faculty Publications

Forecasting equity volatility was thoroughly investigated during the past three decades. The majority based their forecasts on the dynamics of the underlying equity time series. They helped better understand the dynamics of these time series and understand different aspects of volatility. Other models went a step further to include the effect of news announcement on equity volatility. The vast majority ignored the effect of macroeconomic variable or the state of the economy. This paper proposes a volatility-forecasting model that accounts for effect of fundamental macroeconomic variables that reflect the state of the economy. The explanatory variables used measure the stage …

Go to article

Short-Term Inflation Forecasting Models For Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa, Sarah O. Alade Dec 2013

Short-Term Inflation Forecasting Models For Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa, Sarah O. Alade

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Short-term inflation forecasting is an essential component of the monetary policy projections at the Central Bank of Nigeria. This paper proposes four short-term headline inflation forecasting models using the SARIMA and SARIMAX processes and compares their performance using the pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting procedure over July 2011 to September 2013. According to the results the best forecasting performance is demonstrated by the model based on the all items CPI estimated using the SARIMAX model. This model is, therefore, recommended for use in short-term forecasting of headline inflation in Nigeria. The forecasting performance up to eight months ahead, of the models based on …

Go to article

Subsidizing Non-Polluting Goods Vs. Taxing Polluting Goods For Pollution Reduction, Robert S. Main Dec 2013

Subsidizing Non-Polluting Goods Vs. Taxing Polluting Goods For Pollution Reduction, Robert S. Main

Scholarship and Professional Work - Business

Pigovian taxes on polluters are politically unpopular, but subsidies for non-polluting sources are politically attractive. This paper presents a linear demand and supply model and numerical example to explore the trade-offs between taxing polluting sources of a good versus subsidizing non-polluting sources of the same good. While the model (along with the associated numerical example) shows the optimality of Pigovian taxes, it also shows how much welfare is reduced if subsidies for nonpolluters are employed instead. Further, it shows the optimal tax, given any level of subsidy and the optimal subsidy, given any level of tax.

Go to article

An Efficient Two Sample Capture-Recapture Model With High Recaptures, Danjuma Jibasen, Yusuf J. Adams Dec 2013

An Efficient Two Sample Capture-Recapture Model With High Recaptures, Danjuma Jibasen, Yusuf J. Adams

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper proposed an efficient two sample capture-recapture model (Ma) with high recaptures and compared it with the existing models like the model of no factor effect (Mo), behavioral response model (Mb) and the Petersen model (Ms), using simulated data. We found that the Petersen model provides a better estimate of the population size when the observations follow a hypergeometric distribution and the population is overestimated when recapture is high. It was also found that the proposed model provides a better estimator of the population size than the existing ones when the recapture is high. This model is particularly useful …

Go to article

Causal Relationship Between Stock Market Index And Exchange Rate: Evidence From Nigeria, Abdulrasheed Zubair Dec 2013

Causal Relationship Between Stock Market Index And Exchange Rate: Evidence From Nigeria, Abdulrasheed Zubair

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper uses Johansen’s cointegration to test for the possibility of cointegration and Granger-causality to estimate the causal relationship between stock market index and monetary indicators (exchange rate and M2) before and during the global financial crisis for Nigeria, using monthly data for the period 2001–2011. Results suggest absence of long-run relationship before and during the crisis. The Granger-causality tests show a uni-directional causality running from M2 to ASI before the crisis while during the period of the crisis there is absence of causality between the variables. This suggests that ASI show responsiveness to M2. Thus, absence of the direct …

Go to article

Investigating Chaos In The Nigerian Asset And Resource Management (Arm) Discovery Fund, Ibiyinka A. Fuwape, Samuel T. Ogunjo Dec 2013

Investigating Chaos In The Nigerian Asset And Resource Management (Arm) Discovery Fund, Ibiyinka A. Fuwape, Samuel T. Ogunjo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates chaos in a Nigerian mutual fund, Asset and Resource Management Company Limited (ARM) for a period of eleven years. The existence of chaotic signals in the data was identified by the reconstruction of the phase space of the daily closing price of the fund and the delay time was quantified using mutual information function and the embedding dimension by the false nearest neighbours, where the values were identified to be 15 and 20 respectively. The presence of chaotic signals in the ARM data was further confirmed by the correlation dimension method which yielded a dimension of 2.2 …

Go to article

Modeling The Nigerian Inflation Rates Using Periodogram And Fourier Series Analysis, Chukwuemeka O. Omekara,, Emmanuel J. Ekpenyong, Micheal P. Ekerete Dec 2013

Modeling The Nigerian Inflation Rates Using Periodogram And Fourier Series Analysis, Chukwuemeka O. Omekara,, Emmanuel J. Ekpenyong, Micheal P. Ekerete

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This work considers the application of Periodogram and Fourier Series Analysis to model all-items monthly inflation rates in Nigeria from 2003 to 2011. The main objectives are to identify inflation cycles, fit a suitable model to the data and make forecasts of future values. To achieve these objectives, monthly all-items inflation rates for the period were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) website. Periodogram and Fourier series methods of analysis are used to analyze the data. Based on the analysis, it was found that inflation cycle within the period was fifty one (51) months, which coincides with the …

Go to article

Nigerian Stock Index: A Search For Optimal Garch Model Using High Frequency Data, Olaoluwa Simon Yaya Dec 2013

Nigerian Stock Index: A Search For Optimal Garch Model Using High Frequency Data, Olaoluwa Simon Yaya

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper attempts to fit the best Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model for All Share Index (ASI) of Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) returns. A search is made on various GARCH variants specified on the assumptions of stationarity and asymmetry. Fractionally integrated types are also considered to capture the possibility of return series having property of long range dependency. The parameter estimations are carried out on the assumptions of normality and non-normality of GARCH innovations, with models and forecasts evaluated using information criteria and loss functions respectively. Under normality assumption, Hyperbolic GARCH (HYGARCH(1,d,1)) model is selected and Integrated GARCH (IGARCH(1,1)) …

Go to article

Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria External Reserves, Iheanyichukwu S. Iwueze, Eleazar C. Nwogu, Valentine U. Nlebedim Dec 2013

Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria External Reserves, Iheanyichukwu S. Iwueze, Eleazar C. Nwogu, Valentine U. Nlebedim

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper discusses the levels and trend of external reserves in Nigeria. The relevance of this lies in the fact that it could help to monitor the reserves and throw early warning signal about any economic crisis. Monthly data on Nigeria external reserves for the period January 1999 to December, 2008 derived from the 2008 CBN Statistical Bulletin was analyzed using ARIMA model. Results of the analyses show that (i) the data requires logarithmic transformation to stabilize the variance and make the distribution normal (ii) the appropriate model that best describes the pattern in the transformed data is the Autoregressive- …

Go to article

A Markov Decision Process Approach To Optimal Control Of A Multi-Level Hierarchical Manpower System, Akaninyene U. Udom Dec 2013

A Markov Decision Process Approach To Optimal Control Of A Multi-Level Hierarchical Manpower System, Akaninyene U. Udom

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

A recurrent problem in manpower control is how to attain the desired structural configuration in an optimal way, since it is possible to reach a desired structural configuration using different control inputs. The major aim of this paper is to develop a Markov Decision Process for optimal control of a Multi-level Hierarchical Manpower System (MHMS) by promotion and interdepartmental transfers. This is examined under control by intervention and contraction cost Markov Decision Process.

Go to article

Do Major League Baseball Hitters Engage In Opportunistic Behavior?, Heather M. O'Neill Aug 2013

Do Major League Baseball Hitters Engage In Opportunistic Behavior?, Heather M. O'Neill

Business and Economics Faculty Publications

This study focuses on 256 Major League Baseball free agent hitters playing under the 2006–2011 collective bargaining agreement to determine whether players engage in opportunistic behavior in their contract year, i.e., the last year of their current guaranteed contracts. Past studies of professional baseball yield conflicting results depending on the econometric technique applied and choice of performance measure. When testing whether players’ offensive performances increase during their contract year, the omitted variable bias associated with OLS and pooled OLS estimation leads to contrary results compared to fixed effects modeling. Fixed effects regression results suggest players increase their offensive performance subject …

Go to article

The Organization Of Banking And Supervision, Introduction And Overview, Clas Wihlborg Jan 2013

The Organization Of Banking And Supervision, Introduction And Overview, Clas Wihlborg

Business Faculty Articles and Research

"The focus of this Special Issue is on organizational reforms in the financial sector in the aftermath of the financial crisis 2007-2009 and the subsequent euro-zone crisis. In particular, the perception that many banks were too big and too complex to fail during the crisis, which led to very costly bailouts at tax-payers expense in several countries, has fueled a number of proposals to limit the size and the complexity of financial institutions, as well as proposals to reorganize public authorities responsible for supervision and crisis management."

Go to article

The Impact Of Participatory Notes On The Indian Rupee Exchange Rate, Rohan Kothari Jan 2013

The Impact Of Participatory Notes On The Indian Rupee Exchange Rate, Rohan Kothari

CMC Senior Theses

Since 1992, India has grown as a global player in the finance world. In spite of its success, India has not been able to rid itself of potentially harmful practices. One such practice is the issuing of Participatory Notes (PN) to foreign investors, so that they can anonymously purchase securities or derivatives listed on the Indian Stock Exchanges. This instrument came into public view when it accounted for approximately 50% of all foreign portfolio assets in India. Since then, the laws regarding PNs have evolved to become a more transparent version of the old rules. Although PN levels are not …

Go to article

The Role Of Macroeconomic And Group Threat In Prejudice, Aaron Hass Jul 2012

The Role Of Macroeconomic And Group Threat In Prejudice, Aaron Hass

Morehead State Theses and Dissertations

A thesis presented to the faculty of the College of Science and Technology at Morehead State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science by Aaron Haas on June 11, 2012.

Go to article

Shanghai As An International Financial Center - Aspiration, Reality And Implication, Raph Luo Mar 2012

Shanghai As An International Financial Center - Aspiration, Reality And Implication, Raph Luo

Undergraduate Economic Review

China’s rapid economic development, especially in the financial sector, has ignited the discussion of the re-emergence of Shanghai as a leading international financial center (IFC). Much still remains to be done for Shanghai to catch up with established centers such as New York and London, including deepening its capital markets and opening itself up to cross-border capital flows. While Shanghai’s current financial development has been made possible largely by China’s past economic conditions and policies, recent reforms are also likely to guarantee Shanghai the position as a world-class onshore IFC in the near future. The rise of Shanghai will likely …

Go to article

An Economic Analysis Of Foreign Ownership In Professional Sports: Motivation, Success, And Implications For United States Market, Alex F. Wheatley Jan 2012

An Economic Analysis Of Foreign Ownership In Professional Sports: Motivation, Success, And Implications For United States Market, Alex F. Wheatley

CMC Senior Theses

An economic analysis of foreign ownership in sports. Focusing on the English Premier League, National Basketball Association, and Major League Baseball.

Go to article

The Origins Of The Italian Sovereign Debt Crisis, David M. Henningsen Jan 2012

The Origins Of The Italian Sovereign Debt Crisis, David M. Henningsen

CMC Senior Theses

Over the past decade, the European Union has been characterized by an explosion of expenditure, insufficient revenue, high deficits and a lack of budget discipline. Financial markets in Europe are currently dealing with enormous government debts, poor government balance sheets and a weakening banking system. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the origins of the current Euro-crisis and specifically identify the extent to which it will affect the nation of Italy going forward. To understand Italy's stance amid the Euro-crisis, we proceed as follows: First, a historical background section will develop the fundamental issues that have developed in …

Go to article

Contributions Of Financial Sector Reforms And Credit Supply To Nigerian Agricultural Sector (1978-2009), Anthony O. Onoja, M. E. Onu, S. Ajodo-Ohiemi Dec 2011

Contributions Of Financial Sector Reforms And Credit Supply To Nigerian Agricultural Sector (1978-2009), Anthony O. Onoja, M. E. Onu, S. Ajodo-Ohiemi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study analyzed the trends and pattern of institutional credit supply to agriculture during pre- and post-financial reforms along with their determinants. It then compared the effects of reform policies on access to institutional credits in Nigerian agricultural sector before and after the reforms (1978 - 1985; and 1986 -2009). Relying mainly on time series data from CBN and NBS, it used ordinary least squares method (linear, semi-log and double log) to model the determinants of banking sector lending to the agricultural sector during the review period. The models were subjected to several econometric tests before accepting one. Chow test …

Go to article

Determinants Of Foreign Reserves In Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach, David Irefin, Baba N. Yaaba Dec 2011

Determinants Of Foreign Reserves In Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach, David Irefin, Baba N. Yaaba

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

On global scale, central banks’ holdings of foreign reserves have escalated sharply in recent years. World international reserves holdings have risen significantly from US$1.2 trillion in 1995 to nearly US$10.0 trillion in June 2011. Dominant among these reserves are concentrated in the hands of few countries. Ten major holders of foreign reserves are mostly from Asia. Oil exporting countries in Africa and the Middle East are not left out in this trend. Nigeria’s foreign reserves rose from US$5.5 billion in 1999 to US$62.40 billion in July 2008, making Nigeria the twenty-fourth largest reserves holder in the world. This pace of …

Go to article

Effects Of Exchange Rate Movements On Economic Growth In Nigeria, Eme O. Akpan, Johnson A. Atan Dec 2011

Effects Of Exchange Rate Movements On Economic Growth In Nigeria, Eme O. Akpan, Johnson A. Atan

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the effect of exchange rate movements on real output growth in Nigeria. Based on quarterly series for the period 1986 to 2010, the paper examines the possible direct and indirect relationship between exchange rates and GDP growth. The relationship is derived in two ways using a simultaneous equations model within a fully specified (but small) macroeconomic model. A Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) technique was explored. The estimation results suggest that there is no evidence of a strong direct relationship between changes in exchange rate and output growth. Rather, Nigeria’s economic growth has been directly affected by …

Go to article

Exchange Rate Volatility In Nigeria: Consistency, Persistency & Severity Analyses, Babatunde Adeoye, Akinwande A. Atanda Dec 2011

Exchange Rate Volatility In Nigeria: Consistency, Persistency & Severity Analyses, Babatunde Adeoye, Akinwande A. Atanda

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The adoption of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986 resulted in the transition from fixed exchange rate regime to floating exchange rate regime in Nigeria. Ever since, the exchange rate of naira vis-à-vis the U.S dollar has attained varying rates all through different time horizons. On this basis, this study examines the consistency, persistency, and severity (degree) of volatility in exchange rate of Nigerian currency (naira) vis-a-vis the United State dollar using monthly time series data from 1986 to 2008. The standard Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) model was used to analyze the long-run consistency of …

Go to article

Foreign Private Investment And Economic Growth In Nigeria: A Cointegrated Var And Granger Causality Analysis, F. Z. Abdullahi, S. Ladan, Haruna R. Bakari Dec 2011

Foreign Private Investment And Economic Growth In Nigeria: A Cointegrated Var And Granger Causality Analysis, F. Z. Abdullahi, S. Ladan, Haruna R. Bakari

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This research uses a cointegration VAR model to study the contemporaneous long-run dynamics of the impact of Foreign Private Investment (FPI), Interest Rate (INR) and Inflation rate (IFR) on Growth Domestic Products (GDP) in Nigeria for the period January 1970 to December 2009. The Unit Root Test suggests that all the variables are integrated of order 1. The VAR model was appropriately identified using AIC information criteria and the VECM model has exactly one cointegration relation. The study further investigates the causal relationship using the Granger causality analysis of VECM which indicates a uni-directional causality relationship between GDP and FDI …

Go to article

Banking Sector Credit And Economic Growth In Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation, Aniekan O. Akpansung, Sikiru J. Babalola Dec 2011

Banking Sector Credit And Economic Growth In Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation, Aniekan O. Akpansung, Sikiru J. Babalola

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The paper examines the relationship between banking sector credit and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1970-2008. The causal links between the pairs of variables of interest were established using Granger causality test while a Two-Stage Least Squares (TSLS) estimation technique was used for the regression models. The results of Granger causality test show evidence of unidirectional causal relationship from GDP to private sector credit (PSC) and from industrial production index (IND) to GDP. Estimated regression models indicate that private sector credit impacts positively on economic growth over the period of coverage in this study. However, lending (interest) rate …

Go to article

First Prev Next Last