Macroeconomics Commons^™

The Hungarian Loan Consolidation Program, Mallory Dreyer

Journal of Financial Crises

After spinning off the commercial banking functions that the central bank had performed for many years into three new banks, post-Communist Hungary faced a severe recession in 1992. The recession led to a high level of nonperforming loans (NPLs) in the banking system. In 1992, the Hungarian government announced a Loan Consolidation Program (LCP) to remove bad debt from the balance sheets of banks on a voluntary basis. Depending on the date when a loan was classified as “bad,” the government paid 50%, 80%, or 100% of book value. In 1992, banks transferred bad debt with a book value of …

Bureau De Recouvrement Des Crédits Du Burkina (Brcb), Mallory Dreyer

Journal of Financial Crises

In Burkina Faso, the pre-1990s banking system was characterized by a high level of government involvement and ownership, which led to government-induced lending rather than lending based on creditworthiness. Nonperforming loans in the Burkinabe banking system grew to 10 percent of total loans in 1991. In order to address the banking crisis in 1991, the Burkinabe government entered into a Structural Adjustment Facility with the IMF and other multilateral organizations which prioritized the privatization of government-owned enterprises and included rehabilitation of the financial system. As part of this restructuring, the government established the Bureau de Recouvrement des Crédits du Burkina …

Us Resolution Trust Corporation, Aidan Lawson, Lily S. Engbith

Journal of Financial Crises

The savings and loan (S&L) industry experienced a period of turbulence at the end of the 1970s as sharply increasing interest rates caused much of the value of the industry’s net worth to evaporate due to its focus on long-term, fixed-rate mortgages. As a result, a period of rapid deregulation followed, and S&Ls, also called thrifts, engaged in increasingly risky behavior despite many being clearly insolvent. This trend of yield-seeking growth on the part of zombie thrifts forced the government’s hand as huge losses rendered the insurance fund backing the industry, called the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation (FSLIC), …

Senegal Société Nationale De Recouvrement (Snr), Corey N. Runkel

Journal of Financial Crises

In the late 1980s, Senegal embarked on a comprehensive set of reforms to its banking sector. The reforms comprised changes to management, supervision, and lending standards after loose central bank refinancing standards had let the nonperforming loans (NPLs) caused by drought and public enterprise mismanagement linger on bank balance sheets. In the process, the country attempted to recover NPLs worth hundreds of billions of francs. Senegal closed several state-controlled banks, transferring bad assets and certain liabilities to a new asset management company, the Société Nationale de Recouvrement (SNR). The SNR’s debt recoveries would reimburse depositors in the liquidated banks and …

Uruguayan Non-Performing Portfolio Purchase Scheme, Sean Fulmer

Journal of Financial Crises

As the Latin American sovereign debt crisis spread through the continent during the early 1980s, foreign investors began to abandon Uruguay out of fear that it would devalue its currency like Argentina did in March 1981. Five small- to medium-sized commercial banks in Uruguay faced solvency crises as a result. Although the Central Bank of Uruguay (CBU) decided that a full, direct intervention into the failed banks was not necessary due to their size, the CBU arranged for the sale of the banks to foreign financial institutions, while assuming the non-performing portfolios of the failed banks to facilitate the transaction. …

Spain: Deposit Guarantee Fund Asset Management, Manuel León Hoyos

Journal of Financial Crises

The global oil shock in 1973-74 occurred at a time when Spain was embarking on a liberalization of its financial system that resulted in many new entrants, particularly small- and medium-sized institutions. The banking crisis that followed from 1977-85 affected 52 of the country’s 110 banks, most of them of small- and medium-sized, that comprised over 20% of bank deposits. Spain established the Deposit Guarantee Fund in November 1977 to provide limited deposit insurance, and, in March 1978, established a Banking Corporation to take control of and reorganize troubled banks. However, because the Banking Corporation lacked the legal authority to …

Broad-Based Asset Management Programs, Christian M. Mcnamara, Greg Feldberg, Mallory Dreyer, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

Dealing with high levels of nonperforming assets (NPAs) on bank balance sheets is one of the most challenging aspects of financial crisis management. High levels of NPAs can interfere with both bank profitability and general economic growth by increasing uncertainty about bank solvency and therefore funding costs, tying up resources and attention, and inhibiting new lending. One potential solution to the NPA problem is a centralized, government-driven effort to remove these assets from troubled institutions and then manage and sell them. Though such broad-based asset management (BBAM) programs existed even earlier in history, they appear to have become more common …

Revisiting Subprime Pricing Irrationality During The Global Financial Crisis, Rasheed Saleuddin, Walter Jansson

Journal of Financial Crises

During the depths of the global financial crisis of 2008-09, many holders of subprime mortgage securitizations and related derivatives were forced to mark their investments to fair values based on observable prices in mortgage index credit default swap markets. Research has generally claimed that crisis pricing of such indices cannot be explained by fundamental analysis of the underlying markets, while marking portfolios to such “irrational” benchmarks may have contributed to severe distress in the financial sector. This paper econometrically demonstrates significant fundamentally-driven components in subprime mortgage index returns throughout the crisis. Our findings suggest that such benchmarks must be considered …

An Exploration Of The Impact Of Economic Recessions On The S&P 500 And Its Sectors, Weston Sizemore

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is a method of predicting future stock prices based on past returns. Specific areas of CAPM analysis utilize regression analysis to accomplish this goal. Historic prices and returns for a specific stock in a company, or even whole sectors of the economy, are compared with the corresponding returns for the market. There have been several historical recessions in United States history, as well as a current, ongoing recession. These recessions, along with their causes and effects, will be discussed extensively in this paper. This paper utilizes an analysis of the Capital Asset Pricing Model …

Lessons Learned: Alejandro Latorre, Maryann Haggerty

Journal of Financial Crises

At the time of the 2007-09 global financial crisis, Alejandro Latorre was an assistant vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). He was active in the bailout of American International Group (AIG) from its inception to the end, when AIG repaid its outstanding obligations to both the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury. This Lessons Learned summary is based on a Feb. 26, 2020, interview. He emphasized that the views discussed here are his own, not the views of anyone else currently or previously within the Federal Reserve System or the views of his current employer.

Lessons Learned: Sarah Dahlgren, Alec Buchholtz, Rosalind Z. Wiggins

Journal of Financial Crises

Sarah Dahlgren was the Executive Vice President and head of the Financial Institution Supervision Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) during the crisis and instrumental in the rescue of American International Group (AIG). This Lessons Learned summary is drawn from a March 22, 2018, interview in which she gave her take on how central bankers can prepare for future crises.

Lessons Learned: Chester B. Feldberg, Maryann Haggerty

Journal of Financial Crises

Chester B. Feldberg worked for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) for 36 years in a variety of roles. In the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, he served as a trustee for the AIG Credit Trust Facility (2009-2011). The trust was established in early 2009 to hold the equity stock of American International Group Inc. (AIG) that the U.S. government had received as a result of the 2008 AIG bailout. The three trustees were responsible for voting the stock, ensuring satisfactory corporate governance at AIG, and eventually disposing of the stock.

When he was named as a …

Lessons Learned: Eric Dinallo, Maryann Haggerty

Journal of Financial Crises

Eric Dinallo was New York State Superintendent of Insurance from January 2007 through July 2009. In New York, as throughout the United States, insurance companies are regulated at the state level. In his position as Superintendent, Dinallo oversaw the insurance operating companies of American International Group (AIG) within New York. AIG’s holding company, however, was supervised at the federal level. Much of AIG’s problems came from its non-insurance subsidiary AIG Financial Products (AIGFP), which was a major presence in the market for credit default swaps (CDS), a type of derivative that was a factor behind the 2007-09 financial crisis. This …

The Rescue Of American International Group Module Z: Overview, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Aidan Lawson, Steven Kelly, Lily S. Engbith, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

In September 2008, in the midst of the broader financial crisis, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors used its emergency authority under Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act to authorize the largest loan in its history, a $85 billion collateralized credit line to American International Group (AIG), a $1 trillion insurance and financial company that was experiencing severe liquidity strains. In connection with the loan, the government received an equity interest representing 79.9% of the company’s ownership. AIG continued to experience a depressed stock price, asset devaluations, and the risk of ratings downgrades leading to questions about its solvency. …

The Rescue Of American International Group Module D: Maiden Lane Ii, Lily S. Engbith, Devyn Jeffereis

Journal of Financial Crises

In September 2008, American International Group (AIG) faced increasing difficulty in returning cash collateral to counterparties looking to terminate, rather than roll over, their securities lending agreements, in part because the company had invested the collateral in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), which were becoming illiquid. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) provided liquidity to the company, including through the Securities Borrowing Facility (SBF), which allowed for the repayment of cash collateral but did not address the falling values of the RMBS. In November 2008, the Federal Reserve Board authorized the creation of Maiden Lane II (ML II), a …

The Rescue Of American International Group Module B: The Securities Borrowing Facility, Lily S. Engbith, Alec Buchholtz, Devyn Jeffereis

Journal of Financial Crises

In 2008, American International Group (AIG) was among the largest insurance corporations in the world and maintained a profitable securities lending program. However, AIG invested much of the cash collateral received from counterparties in residential mortgage-backed securities, whose value began to collapse rapidly and unexpectedly, creating liquidity strain for AIG when borrowers returned their securities. Because of these strains, credit downgrades, and losses, in September, the company sought assistance from the Federal Reserve which, on October 6, 2008, approved the establishment of the Securities Borrowing Facility by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). The FRBNY agreed to loan …

The Impact Of The Capital Market, The Insurance Sector And The Mortgage Finance Sector On Economic Growth In Egypt, 2005-2019, Hana Anis

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis aims to explore the relationship between financial markets and economic growth in Egypt for the 15 years period, starting from 2005 to 2019. The study concentrates on the non-banking financial sector which includes the stock market, the debt market, the mortgage and the insurance sectors. The Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model is utilized to describe the relationship between GDP growth rate, as a proxy for economic growth, and a number of variables from the financial sector. Results of the analysis show that there is a significant relationship and statistical causality between the growth rate and the debt market, represented …

Aggregate Stock Liquidity Of Bursa Malaysia, Liew Ping Xin

Student Works (2020-2029)

Liquidity plays a crucial role in the functioning of secondary stock markets. However, little is known about the liquidity condition and how trading activities of different investor groups affect liquidity in the Malaysian stock exchange. This thesis focuses on three aspects of Malaysian stock market liquidity, namely, aggregate liquidity in the context of foreign equity flows, higher-order statistical moments of liquidity in the context of proprietary day trading, and, the liquidity connectedness of stock, bond, money and foreign exchange markets. First, this thesis examines the impact of gross foreign equity inflows on aggregate liquidity in a Vector Autoregression framework using …

Stock Market Correlations To Economic Indicators, Anthony K. Quandt

Honors Program: Senior Projects (Public)

For this project, I researched how representative the S&P 500 (a common index of choice to represent the market) is of the economic well-being of the US. I found that stock market data can be used an as indicator of the economic well-being of the U.S.. The results do not indicate that the stock market leads to recovery, but it does suggest that it is correlated with recovery. In my analysis, I compared the S&P 500 performance to four different economic indicators: Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), The Consumer Price Index (CPI), Average Weekly Private Wages, and Unemployment Rate. A …

Markovian Approach To Stock Price Modelling In The Nigerian Oil And Gas Sector, Ayo Adekunle S., Uwabor Eboigbe S.

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The study investigates the stock price movement of quoted Nigerian oil and gas firms using the Markovian model. Specifically, the study estimates the change in likelihoods and steady-state distribution of the share prices of the firms to determine the average time spent by the share price to move to another state and the turnover rate of the selected stocks. Markov chain-based stochastic modelling approach was employed by using the daily closing share prices of all the seven oil and gas firms quoted on the Nigerian Stock Exchange from April 2017 to January 2020. The study finds that the transition probabilities …

Purchasing Power Parity Approach To Exchange Rate Misalignment In Nigeria, Nakorji Musa, Agboegbulem Ngozi T. I., Gaiya Blessing A., Atoi Ngozi V.

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the purchasing power parity (PPP) approach to the determination of exchange rate misalignment in Nigeria by using two variants of the PPP: the absolute PPP (aPPP) and the relative PPP (rPPP). Data on the Nigerian Naira to US Dollar (N/$), British Pound (N/£) and Chinese Yuan (N/¥) interbank exchange rates, Nigeria consumer price index and Inflation as well as the US, UK and China consumer price indices and inflation rates spanning 2008:M1 to 2018:M12 were utilized. A recently modified fractional cointegration framework was employed, taking care of smooth structural breaks and nonlinearity, while the unit root tests …

Money And Foreign Exchange Markets Dynamics In Nigeria: A Multivariate Garch Approach, Atoi Ngozi V., Nwambeke Chinedu G.

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the money market and foreign exchange market dynamics in Nigeria by estimating the dynamic correlation and volatility spillovers between the Nigeria Naira/US Dollar Bureau De Change (BDC) exchange rate and interbank call rate with data from January 2007 to August 2019. The study employs a dynamic conditional correlation form of the GARCH model (DCC-GARCH) to assess the nature of correlation, while an unrestricted bivariate BEKK-GARCH (1, 1) form of the multivariate GARCH model is utilized to investigate shocks and volatility spillover of the rates. The estimated DCC-GARCH (1, 1) reveals that interest rate and exchange rate are …

Impact Of Government Expenditure On Economic Growth In Nigeria, 1970-2019, Aluthge Chandana, Jibir Adamu, Abdu Musa

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the impact of Nigerian government expenditure (disaggregated into capital and recurrent) on economic growth using time series data for the period 1970-2019. The paper employs Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. To ensure robustness of results, the study accounts for structural breaks in the unit root test and the co-integration analysis. The key findings of the study are that capital expenditure has positive and significant impact on economic growth both in the short run and long run while recurrent expenditure does not have significant impact on economic growth both in the short run and long run. The study …

Macroeconomic Stabilization In The Digital Age, John Beirne, David Fernandez

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Macroeconomic Stabilization in the Digital Age provides insights into factors affecting the macroeconomic management of the economy in the digital age. Policy makers need to be aware of the increasing prominence of the digital economy and digital finance and seek to better understand how continued digitalization will affect policies aimed at managing the economy. For emerging market economies (EMEs), macroeconomic policy challenges have been exacerbated by the digital finance revolution in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, when many EMEs experienced large and volatile capital flows. Policy makers must also navigate through fluctuating …

The Debt Guarantee Program Of The Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program (U.S. Gfc), Justin Katz

Journal of Financial Crises

Following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September of 2008, banks faced extreme difficulty in issuing new debt and finding affordable sources of funds due to heightened fears over counterparty solvency and liquidity risk. By the end of September, the TED spread had spiked to 464 basis points, and issuance of commercial paper fell 88%. On October 14th, to boost confidence and lower short-term financing costs, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation announced the Debt Guarantee Program (DGP) as part of the Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program (TLGP). Under the DGP, the FDIC guaranteed in full a limited amount of senior unsecured …

An Adjusted Classical Model For Interest-Free Financing In Nigeria, Abdul Ibrahim, Habibu M-G Salihu

Bullion

This paper examines an interest-free macroeconomic models by adjusting the classical model into an interest-free macroeconomic model as a basis for developing a comparative analysis. The study adopted a descriptive approach by describing the mechanics for obtaining an interest-free macroeconomic model from a prototype western model. It was observed that most Muslims in Nigeria are interested in adopting interest free financing under the western system. This is a reason for converting a western model into an interest-free model.This conversion allows policy-makers to gain useful insight in the process in transition from the western system to the Islamic system. The Islamic …

Firm Survival Of Listed Nigerian Financial Institutions: A Consolidated Methods Approach, Sunusi Garba, Adamu M. Abubakar, Ahmad I. Mohammed, Mohammed S. Damamisau

Bullion

The firm's survival is regarded as an essential element usually used by the capital market participants in making vital decisions. This study examines the combined roles of bankruptcy, earnings management, and profitability in explaining a firm's survival in the listed Nigerian financial institutions. To achieve this, a descriptive research design is adopted and data were generated from databases of the listed companies in the Nigerian Stock Exchange for the period 2006 to 2015. Panel data analysis was employed in analysing collected data of the sampled 29 financial institutions in the Nigerian financial sector. The study found that most of the …

Capital Controls And Macro-Prudential Housing Policies In Small Open Economies, Taojun Xie, Guay C. Lim, Hwee Kwan Chow

Research Collection School Of Economics

We evaluate the effects of capital controls and macro-prudential policies in small open economies with a housing sector that is open to foreign ownership. The work is motivated by concerns that foreign investments also respond to housing investment opportunities resulting in potential house price inflation and issues about housing affordability. Our dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model features housing as an internationally traded investment. We also consider macro-prudential policies that are combinations of monetary and fiscal instruments. We investigate whether foreign investments in the housing markets are de-stabilising and whether there are appropriate policy responses to mitigate the negative effects of …

Alternative Economic Indicators, C. James Hueng, Editor

Upjohn Press

Policymakers and business practitioners are eager to gain access to reliable information on the state of the economy for timely decision making. More so now than ever. Traditional economic indicators have been criticized for delayed reporting, out-of-date methodology, and neglecting some aspects of the economy. Recent advances in economic theory, econometrics, and information technology have fueled research in building broader, more accurate, and higher-frequency economic indicators. This volume contains contributions from a group of prominent economists who address alternative economic indicators, including indicators in the financial market, indicators for business cycles, and indicators of economic uncertainty.

The Federal Reserve’S Financial Crisis Response E: The Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

Securitization is a process that allows banks and other lenders to package loans and sell them as bonds called asset-backed securities (ABS), removing them from their balance sheets and immediately generating cash for new loans. ABS are an important component of the financing cycle for many types of loans to households and small businesses, including mortgages. In the fall of 2008, financial markets began experiencing disturbances as the effects of the U.S. subprime market meltdown spread. The ABS market froze decreasing the volume of new loans to households and small businesses. The Federal Reserve became very concerned about the potential …