Finance Commons^™

Show Me The (Value Of) Money!, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Plenty of adults are not financially literate. Teaching children early can make a big difference

New Factor Structure Models And Idiosyncratic Volatility, Ossama Elhadary

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

In this dissertation, I propose new factor structures that are based on the Fama-French style factors but include additional locations like the industry groups and the exchanges where the stocks are traded. I show that the stock returns are clustered around the industry groups and the exchanges. Idiosyncratic volatility calculated using the new factor structure models tend to be smaller than those calculated using the traditional Fama-French model. By sorting portfolios using the idiosyncratic volatility computed using the new factor models, a trader can gain larger profits compared to sorting the portfolio using the traditionally calculated idiosyncratic volatility.

Essays On Applied Machine Learning For Implied Volatility Interpolation And Artificial Counterfactuals, Pablo A. Crespo

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of two chapters.

Chapter 1: Volatility estimates under the risk neutral density have become a much revisited topic of interest in recent years. The density proves itself a powerful tool for sentiment analysis, since its moments provide insights about expectations in price trends. A standard procedure for its extraction utilizes artificial volatility predictions to form a dense enough grid for approximating a complete probability distribution. This paper proposes two common machine learning technique variations to produce implied volatility predictions when data is very scarce. First, a model using regularization through a variation of a generalized LASSO path …

Volatility Timing Under Low-Volatility Strategy, Poh Ling Neo, Chyng Wen Tee

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The authors devise a volatility timing strategy based on statistical tests on the slope of the volatility decile portfolio return profile. Superior performance is obtained, with a 30% increase in Sharpe ratio and an order of magnitude improvement on cumulated wealth. The profitability of the volatility timing strategy can be attributed to holding a diversified portfolio during bear markets, while holding a concentrated growth portfolio during bull markets.

Forecasting Realized Volatility Using A Nonnegative Semiparametric Model, Anders Eriksson, Daniel P. A. Preve, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper introduces a parsimonious and yet flexible semiparametric model to forecast financial volatility. The new model extends a related linear nonnegative autoregressive model previously used in the volatility literature by way of a power transformation. It is semiparametric in the sense that the distributional and functional form of its error component is partially unspecified. The statistical properties of the model are discussed and a novel estimation method is proposed. Simulation studies validate the new method and suggest that it works reasonably well in finite samples. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of the proposed model is evaluated against a number of …

The World Predictive Power Of U.S. Equity Market Skewness Risk, Jian Chen, Fuwei Jiang, Shuyu Xue, Jiaquan Yao

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This study investigates the cross-country impact of U.S. equity market skewness risk. We find that a large decrease in the U.S. market skewness significantly predicts higher future returns on international equity markets. The predictability remains significant after controlling for a set of U.S. and local forecasting variables. Furthermore, we find strong predictability in- an out-of-sample setting and the predictability delivers a large economic value. The U.S. market skewness also forecasts U.S. economic recessions and international market conditions, consistent with the international three-moment capital asset pricing model (three-moment CAPM) and the intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM).

The Information In Asset Fire Sales, Sheng Huang, Matthew Ringgenberg, Zhe Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Asset prices remain depressed for several years following mutual fund fire sales. We show that this price pressure is partly due to asymmetric information which leads to an adverse selection problem for arbitrageurs. After a flow shock, fund managers do not scale down their portfolio, rather, they choose to sell a subset of low-quality stocks that subsequently underperform. In other words, fund managers have stock selling ability. Our findings suggest an explanation for the tendency of asset prices to remain depressed following fire sales: information asymmetries make it difficult for arbitrageurs to disentangle pure price pressure from negative information.

Jpmorgan Chase London Whale H: Cross-Border Regulation, Arwin G. Zeissler, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

As a global financial service provider, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is supervised by banking regulatory agencies in different countries. Bruno Iksil, the derivatives trader primarily responsible for the $6 billion trading loss in 2012, was based in JPM’s London office. This office was regulated both by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) of the United States (US) and by the Financial Services Authority (FSA), which served as the sole regulator of all financial services in the United Kingdom (UK). Banking regulators in the US and the UK have entered into agreements with one another to define basic parameters …

Jpmorgan Chase London Whale D: Risk-Management Practices, Arwin G. Zeissler, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) prided itself on having the best risk-management practices in the financial industry, having survived the 2007-09 financial crisis in better shape than many competitors. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon often spoke of the bank’s “fortress balance sheet.” A keen focus on risk management is vital to JPM’s longevity, as is the case with all highly leveraged financial institutions. However, the JPM Task Force that investigated the $6 billion 2012 London Whale trading loss concluded that risk-management practices at the bank’s Chief Investment Office (CIO), the unit in which the loss occurred, were given less scrutiny by senior …

Jpmorgan Chase London Whale C: Risk Limits, Metrics, And Models, Arwin G. Zeissler, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

Value at Risk (VaR) is one of the most commonly used ways to measure and monitor market risk. At JPMorgan Chase (JPM), very large derivative positions established by Bruno Iksil in the Synthetic Credit Portfolio (SCP) caused the bank’s Chief Investment Office (CIO) to exceed its VaR limit for four days in a row in January 2012. In response, the CIO changed to a new VaR model on January 30, which appeared to immediately reduce VaR by half. However, JPM soon discovered that this new VaR model had not been properly implemented and the bank went back to using the …

Jpmorgan Chase London Whale B: Derivatives Valuation, Arwin G. Zeissler, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

After consistently producing positive results through 2011, the JPMorgan Chase (JPM) traders who oversaw the bank’s Synthetic Credit Portfolio (SCP) grew alarmed by a consistent string of losses beginning in January 2012. (The SCP was maintained by JPM to help hedge default risk and was the source of the 2012 London Whale trading loss.) To minimize the losses reported to their superiors until such time that market prices hopefully turned in their favor, the SCP traders began valuing their largest derivative positions in a manner that was not consistent with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) and JPM policy. The fair …

Jpmorgan Chase London Whale A: Risky Business, Arwin G. Zeissler, Daisuke Ikeda, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

In December 2011, the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer of JPMorgan Chase (JPM) instructed the bank’s Chief Investment Office to reduce the size of its Synthetic Credit Portfolio (SCP) during 2012, so that JPM could decrease its RiskWeighted Assets as the bank prepared to adopt the impending Basel III bank capital regulations. However, the SCP traders were also told to minimize the trading costs incurred to reduce Risk-Weighted Assets, while still maintaining the opportunity to profit from unexpected corporate bankruptcies. In an attempt to balance these competing objectives, head SCP derivatives trader Bruno Iksil suggested in January 2012 …

The Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program: A Systemwide Systemic Risk Exception, Lee Davison

Journal of Financial Crises

In the fall of 2008, short-term credit markets were all but frozen, creating liquidity issues for banks and bank holding companies that could not rollover their debt at reasonable rates. Fearing that the situation would worsen if something was not done, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Federal Reserve Board invoked, and the Secretary of the Treasury approved, the use of the “systemic risk exception” (SRE) under the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Improvement Act of 1991, to provide unprecedented broad-based relief to struggling banks. The SRE permitted the FDIC to depart from its “least-cost” requirement when addressing failing …

Freight Fluctuation Risk Assessment And Management Of Container Shipping Companies, Bochan Shen

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

The Danger Of Being Neighbors : Community Information And Corporate Tax Avoidance, Xiaowei Wang

Lingnan Theses (MPhil & PhD)

This paper examines the relationship between tax officers’ access to community information and the effectiveness of tax authorities in constraining tax avoidance in China. Numerous studies document that people can obtain valuable information in the community in which their daily activities take place (community information). Focusing on a valuable setting in China in which corporate taxes are collected by tax offices that are located very close to firms (with an average distance of 6.5 km), this study examines whether tax officers’ access to community information at a firm’s location can reduce the firm’s tax avoidance. I broadly define tax avoidance …

Do What I Say, Not What I Do? Personal Finance Experiences Of Purdue Alumni And Advice For Current Undergraduate Students, Andi Long

The Journal of Purdue Undergraduate Research

No abstract provided.

Garch Modeling Of Value At Risk And Expected Shortfall Using Bayesian Model Averaging, Ismail Kheir

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis conducts Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) estimation using GARCH modeling and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). BMA considers multiple models weighted by some information criterion. Through BMA, this thesis finds that VaR and ES estimates can be improved through enhanced modeling of the data generation process.

Economic Inequality, Regional Development, And Internal Migration In Indonesia, Khoirunurrofik Khoirunurrofik

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study aims to probe the determinants of inter-provincial migration flows in Indonesia and how economic and development changes affect migration patterns. We employ three census periods, 1990, 2000, and 2010. Our study finds that an increase in relative inequality between origin and destination provinces decreases inter-provincial migration and relatively high distance elasticity in Indonesia leads to high migration cost. People are more inclined to migrate due to push factors as opposed to pull factors from the destination region, thus indicating a strong relationship between the level of regional development and the willingness of people to migrate.

Microcredit Accessibility In Rural Households: Evidence From Indonesia, Danang Budi Santoso

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Extant literature suggests that microcredit may improve borrowers social and economic welfare. This study aimed to investigate the microcredit accessibility of rural households in Indonesia. Binary Logistic regression was used to distinguish the characteristics of microcredit borrowers and non-borrowers, and the factors affecting the approval of microcredit application. Primary data was collected through a survey on 488 rural households in Bantul, Yogyakarta. The empirical results suggested that age, marital status and education attainment significantly affect the characteristics of clients and non-clients of microcredit. The results also revealed that age of borrowers, household income, interest rates, and loan duration are key …

Does Gender Diversity In The Boardroom Improve Firm Performance? Evidence From Indonesia, Pananda Pasaribu

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study investigates board gender diversity in Indonesia's listed firms and its effect on firm performance from 2011-2016. After addressing the endogeneity of diversity, the results in this paper show that the proportion of female in the boardroom marginally improve firm performance. Firms with two or more female in the boardroom have a stronger impact on firm performance than firms with one female in the boardroom, consistent with the critical mass effect. Finally, certain sectors will gain more benefits of appointing females in the boardroom. The results suggest that increasing gender diversity in the boardrooms can have beneficial effects on …

The Effect Of Hedging With Financial Derivatives On Firm Value At Indonesia Stock Exchange, Prof. Dr. Budi Frensidy

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the effect of hedging for the risks of foreign currency, interest rate, and commodity price on firm value as measured by Tobin's Q. The findings reveal that hedging with derivative instruments is insignificantly related to firm value but significantly varied in financial risks. Hedging for foreign currency risk has a significantly positive relation to firm value, while hedging for interest rate and commodity price risk has no relation. Furthermore, this study provides a novelty compared to previous studies in the utilization of the extent of hedging as the variable to measure the implementation of hedging.

Promoting The Indonesian Special Economic Zones For Tourism: Lessons From Mandalika And Tanjung Kelayang, Latif Adam

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This paper aims to analyze the design and implementation of the policy to develop tourism special economic zones (TSEZs) in Indonesia with special reference to Mandalika and Tanjung Kelayang. Using descriptive analysis, it is revealed that these TSEZs have not attracted many investors yet. The policy design to promote the two TSEZs is unattractive, unclear, and at odds with the characteristics of the tourism sector. Furthermore, the implementing institutions have insufficient capacity and professionalism to implement the policy. Various critical actions are necessary to take. First, accelerating the provision of infrastructure. Second, clarifying several regulations to be in compliance with …

Comparing Uk Tax Returns Of Foreign Multinationals To Matched Domestic Firms, Katarzyna Anna Bilicka

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

In this paper, I use confidential UK corporate tax returns data to explore whether there are systematic differences in the amount of taxable profits that multinational and domestic companies report. I find that the ratio of taxable profits to total assets reported by foreign multinational subsidiaries is one-half that of comparable domestic standalones. The majority of the difference is attributable to the fact that a higher proportion of foreign multinational subsidiaries report zero taxable profits. I document how the estimated difference is related to profit shifting and show that using accounting data leads to much smaller estimates of the difference.

Time-Varying Contemporaneous Spillovers During The European Debt Crisis, Marinela Adriana Finta, Bart Frijins, Alireza Tourani-Rad

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper considers contemporaneous spillover effects between Germany and four peripheral European countries that were most affected by the European Debt Crisis, and provides evidence of bidirectional spillovers among these equity markets. We document that there is asymmetry and time variation in contemporaneous spillovers. Particularly, contemporaneous return spillovers from Germany to the peripheral equity markets is higher than the other way around. We show that European Debt Crisis led to a decrease in the contemporaneous spillover effects.

Mortgage Dollar Roll, Zhaogang Song, Haoxiang Zhu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Mortgage dollar roll, the most common financing strategy for agency MBS, differs from repo in that the returned collateral can differ from those received. Also, MBS ownership changes hands in the funding period. We show that dollar roll “specialness,” how much implied financing rates fall below MBS repo rates, (1) increases in the value of the cheapest-to-deliver option, (2) decreases in the leverage of primary dealers, (3) decreases in prepayment risk exposure during the financing period, and (4) decreases in MBS returns. The Federal Reserve’s dollar roll sales in quantitative easing operations are associated with lower specialness.

A Time-Varying True Individual Effects Model With Endogenous Regressors, Levent Kutlu, Kien C. Tran, Mike G. Tsionas

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We propose a fairly general individual effects stochastic frontier model, which allows both heterogeneity and inefficiency to change over time. Moreover, our model handles the endogeneity problems if either at least one of the regressors or one-sided error term is correlated with the two-sided error term. Our Monte Carlo experiments show that our estimator performs well. We employed our methodology to the US banking data and found a negative relationship between return on revenue and cost efficiency. Estimators ignoring time-varying heterogeneity or endogeneity did not perform well and gave very different estimates compared to our estimator.

Renewable Energy Access And Resilience In Urban Developing Areas: Distributed Solar Networks And Peer-To-Peer Energy Trading In Puerto Rico, Pascale Bronder

Harvey M. Applebaum ’59 Award

This senior essay under the Environmental Studies major at Yale University explores the environmental and social benefits of applying innovative technology to the energy sector. Three types of energy networks are analyzed, focusing on the use of distributed energy and peer to peer energy trading on a blockchain platform. The benefits of distributed renewable energy networks can most strongly be applied to locations in need of more reliable, resilient, and cost-effective electricity. Puerto Rico is a case study. Methods include analysis of U.S. Energy Information Administration and Census Bureau data as well as personal interviews with Puerto Rican energy developers. …

Investors’ Uncertainty And Stock Market Risk, Diego Escobari, Mohammad Jafarinejad

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We propose a novel approach to model investors' uncertainty using the conditional volatility of investors' sentiment. Working with weekly data on investor sentiment, six major U.S. stock indices, and alternative measures of uncertainty, we run various tests to validate our proposed measure. The estimates show that investors' uncertainty is greater during economic downturns, and it is linked with lower investors' sentiment. In addition, the results support the existence of a positive conditional correlation between sentiment and returns. This positive spillover between sentiment and returns is interpreted as a positive link between investors' uncertainty and market risk. We also find that …

Forecasting In Blockchain-Based Local Energy Markets, Michael Kostmann, Wolfgang Karl Hardle

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

Increasingly volatile and distributed energy production challenges traditional mechanisms to manage grid loads and price energy. Local energy markets (LEMs) may be a response to those challenges as they can balance energy production and consumption locally and may lower energy costs for consumers. Blockchain-based LEMs provide a decentralized market to local energy consumer and prosumers. They implement a market mechanism in the form of a smart contract without the need for a central authority coordinating the market. Recently proposed blockchain-based LEMs use auction designs to match future demand and supply. Thus, such blockchain-based LEMs rely on accurate short-term forecasts of …

International Welfare Spillovers Of National Pension Schemes, James Staveley-O'Carroll, Olena Staveley-O'Carroll

Economics Department Working Papers

We employ a two-country overlapping-generations model to explore the international dimension of household portfolio choices induced by the asymmetric provision of government-run pensions. We study the resulting patterns of risk-sharing and the corresponding welfare effects on both home and foreign agents. Introducing the defined benefits pay-as-you-go system at home increases the welfare of all other agents at the expense of the home workers and improves the degree of intergenerational risk sharing abroad. Conversely, a defined contributions system leads to welfare losses of both home cohorts accompanied by gains abroad, but does increase the extent of intergenerational risk sharing at home.