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Articles 31 - 60 of 85
Full-Text Articles in Finance
Feature Investigation For Stock Returns Prediction Using Xgboost And Deep Learning Sentiment Classification, Seungho (Samuel) Lee
Feature Investigation For Stock Returns Prediction Using Xgboost And Deep Learning Sentiment Classification, Seungho (Samuel) Lee
CMC Senior Theses
This paper attempts to quantify predictive power of social media sentiment and financial data in stock prediction by utilizing a comprehensive set of stock-related fundamental and technical variables and social media sentiments. For conducting sentiment analysis, this study employs a pretrained finBERT model that provides three different sentiment classifications and respective softmax scores. Hence, the significance of these variables is evaluated with XGBoost regression and Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) frameworks. Through investigating feature importance, this study finds that statistical properties of sentiment variables provide a stronger predictive power than a weighted sentiment score and that it is possible to quantify …
Converged Subset Portfolios: An Extension To Subset Optimization, Coleman Cornell
Converged Subset Portfolios: An Extension To Subset Optimization, Coleman Cornell
CMC Senior Theses
The limited span of useful data, coupled with increasingly expansive asset universes, cripples the traditional mean-variance problem. When optimizing in these environments, the pronounced effect of estimation error yields extremely unstable portfolios when evaluated out-of-sample. As a proposed solution to the "curse of dimensionality," Gillen (2016) presents subset optimization as a technique to reduce the impact of estimation error. Instead of optimizing jointly over the entire asset universe, subset optimization na\"ively aggregates over many "subset portfolios" that each optimize over a much smaller random sample of assets. Given the inefficiencies when using naive aggregation, converged subset optimization is presented as …
Diversifying Investment Portfolios With Collectible Sneakers: Expected Returns And Benefits Of Diversification, Samuel Soo
CMC Senior Theses
This thesis seeks to identify if collectible sneakers can provide diversification benefits to an investor’s portfolio. Using data from a global collectible sneaker marketplace, StockX, I constructed an index to compare it with other traditional assets, including the S&P 500 index and 5-year US Treasury Bills. By calculating key metrics including expected returns, volatility, and correlation, I analyzed the risk-return characteristics of the collectible sneaker asset class compared to other traditional asset classes. From the data analysis I performed, I found that collectible sneakers did not outperform returns significantly compared to traditional asset classes, but had low correlations, which provides …
Gambling Autonomy: The Impact Of Latin American Central Bank Independence On Risk Aversion Within Monetary Policy Implementation, Julia Duarte Schulman
Gambling Autonomy: The Impact Of Latin American Central Bank Independence On Risk Aversion Within Monetary Policy Implementation, Julia Duarte Schulman
CMC Senior Theses
This paper examines the effect of Latin American central bank independence (CBI) on risk-averse behaviors in monetary policy. Using a fixed effects panel regression, I document how multiple forms of monetary policy are influenced by different macroeconomic variables, conflicting policy targets and central bank independence benchmarks. The results show that increasing CBI has a positive impact on risk aversion, especially in policies targeting inflation and money supply. Additionally, the results show that interest rates and reserve requirements were especially susceptible to changes in independence, while the monetary base and volume of domestic credit were less influenced. Finally, as time and …
Optimal Execution In Cryptocurrency Markets, Ethan Kurz
Optimal Execution In Cryptocurrency Markets, Ethan Kurz
CMC Senior Theses
The purpose of this paper is to study the Almgren and Chriss model on the optimal execution of large block orders both on the NYSE and in cryptocurrency exchanges. Their model minimizes execution costs, which include linear temporary and permanent price impacts. We focus on how the stock market microstructure differs from a cryptocurrency exchange microstructure and what that means for how the model functions. Once the model and microstructures are explained, we examine how the Almgren-Chriss model functions with stocks from the NYSE, looking at specifically selling a large number of shares. We then investigate how a large "wholesale" …
K-Means Stock Clustering Analysis Based On Historical Price Movements And Financial Ratios, Shu Bin
K-Means Stock Clustering Analysis Based On Historical Price Movements And Financial Ratios, Shu Bin
CMC Senior Theses
The 2015 article Creating Diversified Portfolios Using Cluster Analysis proposes an algorithm that uses the Sharpe ratio and results from K-means clustering conducted on companies' historical financial ratios to generate stock market portfolios. This project seeks to evaluate the performance of the portfolio-building algorithm during the beginning period of the COVID-19 recession. S&P 500 companies' historical stock price movement and their historical return on assets and asset turnover ratios are used as dissimilarity metrics for K-means clustering. After clustering, stock with the highest Sharpe ratio from each cluster is picked to become a part of the portfolio. The economic and …
Libor Manipulation And The Transition To Sofr, Seth Taylor-Brill
Libor Manipulation And The Transition To Sofr, Seth Taylor-Brill
CMC Senior Theses
With the London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR) likely to disappear at the end of 2021 due to its manipulation during the 2008 financial crisis, the financial industry must decide what to do about legacy contracts tied to LIBOR and must select a new interest rank benchmark regime going forwards. This paper provides insight into those questions by first contributing to the existing literature aimed at measuring the extent of LIBOR manipulation and then by developing a model to explain the LIBOR-SOFR spread. This paper analyzes banks’ LIBOR submissions from 2006 to 2008 to identify bank collusion to strategically increase or …
Are Cds Auctions The Tail Wagging The Dog? An Empirical Study Of Corporate Bond Return Volatility At The Time Of Default, Jennifer Mace
Are Cds Auctions The Tail Wagging The Dog? An Empirical Study Of Corporate Bond Return Volatility At The Time Of Default, Jennifer Mace
CMC Senior Theses
Over the past decade, numerous engineered credit events and cases of market participants manipulating bond prices to influence Credit Default Swap (CDS) auction payouts have occurred. These cases have become increasingly common, and the CFTC has stated they may constitute market manipulation and undermine not only the CDS market but also the credit derivative and default markets. Although there is a plethora of news and media coverage on publicized cases, there is no previous empirical research on evidence of these practices. This paper is motivated by the desire to determine if there is indirect evidence of bond price manipulation around …
The Fall Of The 10-K Report: Measuring The Impact Of Accounting Ratios On Financial Performance, Matthew Daruty
The Fall Of The 10-K Report: Measuring The Impact Of Accounting Ratios On Financial Performance, Matthew Daruty
CMC Senior Theses
The annual 10-K report has historically been the most important aspect in assessing the position of a publicly held company. However, as the flow of information has increased with the dawn of new technologies, less and less attention has been paid to these audited financial statements. In order to assess if investors are still reacting to the information contained in the annual report, this paper examines the relationship between accounting ratios and stock price in banks traded on United States stock exchanges. By examining accounting ratios instead of simply looking at Earnings Per Share, new information was revealed regarding what …
Leveraged Buyouts: The Predictive Power Of Target Firm Characteristics, Yutao (James) Jiang
Leveraged Buyouts: The Predictive Power Of Target Firm Characteristics, Yutao (James) Jiang
CMC Senior Theses
This paper utilizes a hazard model to predict the probability of leveraged buyout transactions for public firms. Rather than testing specific hypotheses, this paper incorporates all plausible predictors identified in existing literature to better delineate the effects of different characteristics. Largely confirming past results, I find that LBO transactions are more likely to occur for companies with more stable cash flows, less market visibility, lower market valuation, lower ownership concentration and lower costs of financial distress. By including LBO transactions from 1980 to September 2018, I find preliminary evidence that since the financial crisis of 2008 – 2009, private equity …
Modeling Returns On Carbon Emission Allowances: An Application To Rggi, James Keneally
Modeling Returns On Carbon Emission Allowances: An Application To Rggi, James Keneally
CMC Senior Theses
This thesis attempts to model the returns on Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) allowances using logged monthly returns from 2011-2018. This asset, shown to be a useful diversifier in portfolios, has been identified by previous literature to behave similarly to commodities. I used auto-regressive, GARCH, and Markov regime switching models to analyze the returns because the returns displayed changing volatility. These models were comparatively analyzed both in and out-of-sample. In this limited data analysis, the Markov model outperformed both alternatives in-sample. The Markov and Garch models displayed similar predictive power out-of-sample, however neither were particularly effective.
M&A Performance: Market’S Initial Reaction As An Unbiased Indicator Of Post-Acquisition Performance, Nikolaos Papageorgiou
M&A Performance: Market’S Initial Reaction As An Unbiased Indicator Of Post-Acquisition Performance, Nikolaos Papageorgiou
CMC Senior Theses
This paper investigates the reliability of the stock market’s initial reaction to M&A announcements as a predictor of actual post-acquisition performance. The two prevailing methods for evaluating M&A performance are event studies (stock market-based measures) and accounting-based measures. The present study combines these two performance evaluation approaches in a single empirical examination. Both the post-merger buy-and-hold abnormal returns and changes in ROA are used as actual post-acquisition performance variables. The acquirer’s cumulative abnormal return (CAR) around the announcement is used as the market predictor variable. An econometric model is employed to test the predictive power of the announcement-period CAR on …
What Do We Know About The Recent Performance Of Indian Banks?, Laira Aggarwal
What Do We Know About The Recent Performance Of Indian Banks?, Laira Aggarwal
CMC Senior Theses
This paper examines the performance of Indian banks by studying the effects of recent reforms and macroeconomic events. Indian banks went through a period of reforms in the past twenty years. The impact of these reforms and major macroeconomic events has been examined using time-series analysis. Event studies offer additional perspective on the short-run effect of the events on different types of Indian banks. Although, the event dates are not all statistically significant in the time-series regressions, the demonetization of 2016 is significant in the event study analysis. Thus, while reforms and events have immediate impact on the performance of …
Model Specification For Bank Failure: A Retrospective Look At Banks In Missouri During The Great Depression, Peter Welch
Model Specification For Bank Failure: A Retrospective Look At Banks In Missouri During The Great Depression, Peter Welch
CMC Senior Theses
This paper examines banks in Missouri during the Great Depression in order to find the correct model specification for bank failure during economic downturns. The data set controls for a bank’s balance sheet, correspondent network, charters and memberships, county characteristics, and market share, and includes both Federal Reserve member and non-member banks. Using a probit model, it is concluded that the contractionary monetary policy employed by the St. Louis Federal Reserve did not help bank survival, as being a member of the Federal Reserve had no significant effect on a bank’s probability of survival. Additionally, while an increased network led …
The Effects Of The Correspondent Banking Network On The Real Economy, Jack Brown
The Effects Of The Correspondent Banking Network On The Real Economy, Jack Brown
CMC Senior Theses
There is a longstanding academic debate regarding the role of financial networks. There is a tradeoff between improving the flow of funds and acting as a channel for contagion. This paper investigates the impact of banking networks on the real economy during the Great Depression. Building permit values are used as a proxy for real economic activity as implemented in previous research. A simple linear regression model estimated by ordinary least squares is used such that locational networks are differentiated from networks links to money centers and non-money centers. The results demonstrate that financial networks have both positive and negative …
Are Volatility Expectations In Different Countries Interdependent? A Data-Driven Solution To Structural Var Identification For Implied Equity Volatility Indices, Timothy H. De Silva
Are Volatility Expectations In Different Countries Interdependent? A Data-Driven Solution To Structural Var Identification For Implied Equity Volatility Indices, Timothy H. De Silva
CMC Senior Theses
Over the past couple of decades, the number of volatility indices has increased rapidly. These indices seek to represent the market’s expectation of realized volatility over the coming month, based on the prices of options traded on each underlying equity index. Although the dynamics of realized volatility spillover have been studied extensively, very few studies exists that examine the spillover between these volatility indices. By using DAG-based structural vector autoregression, this paper provides evidence that implied volatility spillover differs from realized volatility spillover. Through solving the well-known VAR identification problem for these indices, this paper finds that Asia, more specifically …
Ipo Underpricing And Insider Wealth Maximization In Internet Firms, Bhavika Booragadda
Ipo Underpricing And Insider Wealth Maximization In Internet Firms, Bhavika Booragadda
CMC Senior Theses
This paper empirically tests the theoretical model developed by Aggarwal, Krigman and Womack (2001), which argues that insiders of a firm strategically underprice its initial public offering to maximize personal wealth by selling shares at lockup expiration. First day underpricing generates information momentum for the stock in terms of increased research coverage and recommendations by analysts. Increased research coverage is positively correlated with stock returns and insider selling at the end of the lockup period. Although the value of the stock should be typically based on discounted expected future cash flows, several empirical papers suggest a downward sloping demand curves …
Returns To Buying Winners And Selling Losers: A Look At Cryptocurrencies, Daniel Walker
Returns To Buying Winners And Selling Losers: A Look At Cryptocurrencies, Daniel Walker
CMC Senior Theses
This paper is, to my knowledge, one of the first ever to examine the effectiveness of price momentum trading strategies applied to cryptocurrencies. Using aggregate OHLCV (Open, High, Low, Close, Volume) data on cryptocurrency pairs from Poloniex, Bittrex, and Bitfinex, I apply Jegadeesh and Titman’s classic -month/-month momentum trading strategy, reporting annual returns with and without incorporating trading fees. Portfolios are resampled daily, weekly, and monthly, testing lookback and holding periods ranging from one day to one year. The results show that trading cryptocurrencies using momentum strategies derives returns that rapidly increase the more often portfolios are resampled, with the …
The Effect Of The Change In Call Loan Rates And Volatility On Stock Returns In 1929: An Empirical Study Into A Determinant Of The Great Depression, Amberish Chitre
The Effect Of The Change In Call Loan Rates And Volatility On Stock Returns In 1929: An Empirical Study Into A Determinant Of The Great Depression, Amberish Chitre
CMC Senior Theses
I investigate the effect of the change in call loan rates on stock returns during 1929. Call loan rates are the interest rates on borrowed funds to trade equity on a given exchange. It is estimated that 40% of stocks during this period were bought on margin. After a price decline comes a margin call, followed by a forced sales of securities, which leads to additional margin calls and future price declines. I regress daily excess returns on the change in daily call loan rates during 1929. In addition, I estimate volatility using an ARCH model and observe the previously …
You Can Run But You Can’T Hide: The Advance Of Shareholder Activism, Kendall Greenberg
You Can Run But You Can’T Hide: The Advance Of Shareholder Activism, Kendall Greenberg
CMC Senior Theses
Shareholder activism has exploded in popularity since the turn of the century, due in large part to impressive relative returns generated by its major participants. The result has thus been a surge in assets invested in the category, to in excess of $170 billion today up from less than $3 billion in 2000 (Inglis 2015; Romito 2015). This influx of capital, in absolute dollars and pace of growth, has caused many to wonder whether activists truly create shareholder value and, if so, if the value generated is sustainable. Numerous studies of activist interventions prior to 2009 reveal significant stock price …
Is Silence The Answer?, Gator Adams
Is Silence The Answer?, Gator Adams
CMC Senior Theses
This study examines the relationship between company management guidance, and ex-ante crash risk over the duration of 2008(Jan 2006-Dec 2009) financial crisis using the implied volatility skew, which is based upon ex-ante volatility implied by the pricing model developed by Black-Scholes (1973). The study finds that over the duration of this crisis period, management guidance decreases with a rise in ex-ante crash risk. Further, the study provides evidence on the relationship of management guidance and earnings volatility, and how that is affected by a firm's industry product concentration based on the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) score.
Australian Real Estate Stock Reactions To Firb Regulation Changes, Henry Wei
Australian Real Estate Stock Reactions To Firb Regulation Changes, Henry Wei
CMC Senior Theses
This study analyzes the share price reactions to real estate development and building/construction materials corporations in relation to FIRB rule changes. It appears companies as a whole were indifferent to the rule changes; however individual securities returns were wildly different. These findings suggest that the FIRB rule changes had a mixed effect on different corporations possibly based on their exposure to the Australian real estate market.
Does Fundamental Analysis Lead To A Rudimentary Momentum Strategy For The Inexperienced Investor? Evidence From A Student Investment Fund, Nicholas J. Lillie
Does Fundamental Analysis Lead To A Rudimentary Momentum Strategy For The Inexperienced Investor? Evidence From A Student Investment Fund, Nicholas J. Lillie
CMC Senior Theses
Using the Student Investment Fund at Claremont McKenna College as a proxy for inexperienced investors, I demonstrate that inexperienced investors using fundamental analysis produce momentum-like buying patterns. The results show that the Student Investment Fund is on average buying stocks that outperform Carhart’s four-factor asset pricing model in the year before purchase. As a result, the Student Investment Fund has, on average, underperformed the S&P500 by .48% per year since 1996. My thesis explores why the Student Investment Fund may have adopted momentum-like purchasing patterns and what steps can be taken to remedy it.
The Real Estate And Stock Market During The Great Depression: Construction Permit Growth As A Leading Economic Indicator For Stock Returns, Will Cresap
CMC Senior Theses
The 1929 stock market crash on Black Thursday, followed by the subsequent four-year period of extreme economic downturn, signifies an extremely profound piece of U.S. history. During this time, global economic productivity – measured by GDP – decreased while the U.S. unemployment rate increased staggeringly. Leveraging construction permits as a forward-looking measure of economic activity, I empirically evaluate the effect of construction permits – specifically, the lagged growth rate of monthly construction permits – and lagged monthly stock returns on monthly Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) stock returns. Lagged construction permit returns and lagged stock returns provide early indications …
The Effects Of The 1933 Bank Holiday And The Emergency Banking Act Of 1933 On The Systematic Risks Of Various Industries, James E. Ingram
The Effects Of The 1933 Bank Holiday And The Emergency Banking Act Of 1933 On The Systematic Risks Of Various Industries, James E. Ingram
CMC Senior Theses
Utilizing the industry portfolio classifications that Fama and French provide in their data library, I analyze the specific effects that the 1933 Bank Holiday has on various industries. My empirical results go beyond what Silber (2009) determines to be significantly positive abnormal market returns on March 15, 1933, which is the day after the Bank Holiday and the largest ever one-day increase in the stock market. I use the CAPM and the Fama-French 3-factor Model to find significant systematic risk decreases after the Bank Holiday in the Coal and Transportation industries, as well as systematic risk increases in Consumer Goods …
A Critical Examination Of Oil Wealth Management Strategies And Their Effects On Economic Growth In The Gulf Cooperation Council Countries, Caroline J. Belmont
A Critical Examination Of Oil Wealth Management Strategies And Their Effects On Economic Growth In The Gulf Cooperation Council Countries, Caroline J. Belmont
CMC Senior Theses
Despite their natural resources, the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman) have failed to live up to their economic potential, primarily due to their dependence on a revenue source with volatile prices and political significance in an unstable region. This thesis argues that the best way to convert oil wealth into consistent long term growth is through diversification, both by investing in foreign assets and by growing domestic sectors that are independent from oil and gas prices. The research further investigates the primary tool these countries have used to …
An Event Study Analysis Of American Bank Holding Company Equity Returns Upon Basel Iii Announcement, Brian R. Delaney
An Event Study Analysis Of American Bank Holding Company Equity Returns Upon Basel Iii Announcement, Brian R. Delaney
CMC Senior Theses
This study examines the trading activity of a large cross section of American bank holding companies upon various sub-events associated with the introduction of Basel III. An event study methodology was applied to various sub-composite portfolios, as determined by regulatory capitalization and leverage ratios. The results suggest that statically significant abnormal negative returns occurred on the announcement to negotiate due to heightened regulatory uncertainty, especially amongst the least capitalized and highest leveraged banks. However, this effect is complemented by statically significant positive returns upon the release of the initial guidelines. Reactions to subsequent events report to be less significant.
A Re-Examination Of Rating Shopping And Catering Using Post-Crisis Data On Cdos, Robert H. Owlett
A Re-Examination Of Rating Shopping And Catering Using Post-Crisis Data On Cdos, Robert H. Owlett
CMC Senior Theses
I re-examine “rating shopping” and “rating catering” in the market for AAA rated collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) by replicating the study of Griffin and Tang (2013) using post-crisis data. I find a sharp increase in the amount of CDOs that received a single rating, suggesting that CDO underwriters were more cautious about formally soliciting multiple ratings. However, I also find a decrease in AAA rating disagreements between S&P and Moody’s, implying that issuers shopped their CDOs through informal conversations with agencies. Finally, I find investors correctly accepted tighter credit spreads for dual-rated CDOs because dual-rated CDOs experienced fewer rating downgrades …
Reverse Line Movements In Nfl Gambling: Parallels To Financial Market Biases And The Imitation Of Informed Bettor Strategies, Philip S. Crawford
Reverse Line Movements In Nfl Gambling: Parallels To Financial Market Biases And The Imitation Of Informed Bettor Strategies, Philip S. Crawford
CMC Senior Theses
Participants in the NFL gambling market can largely be divided into two distinct groups: informed bettors (“Sharps”) and uninformed bettors (“Squares”). Empirical and anecdotal evidence suggest that the dynamic between Sharp and Square bettors is very similar to that between institutional and retail investors. Professionals tend to be far better informed and utilize rational betting/investing strategies while individuals exhibit biases which perpetuate irrational strategies and therefore pricing inefficiencies. This study finds that uninformed participants in financial markets and the NFL betting market do share similar biases, and that these biases can be exploited by informed participants to generate positive excess …
Promoting Bold Investment In Renewable Energy Research And Development, Melanie C. Paty
Promoting Bold Investment In Renewable Energy Research And Development, Melanie C. Paty
CMC Senior Theses
This thesis discusses the potential for private investment to fund ambitious renewable energy research and development to help mitigate climate change. I begin by discussing the threat of global warming and a brief history of renewable energy development in the United States. Next, I discuss existing avenues for private investment in renewable energy, potential methods of increasing corporate participation, and the belief that businesses must maximize only financial profits. Then I perform an in-depth case study of pension funds that have incorporated a social or environmental mission, existing environmentally focused mutual funds, and liquidated clean energy mutual funds. Finally, I …