Finance Commons^™

Algorithmic Trading In Idiosyncratic-Payoff Markets: A Multi-Agent System For On-Chain Prediction Contracts, Saif Aldeen A.K. Agha

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis documents the design, deployment, and forward-test evaluation of an evolutionary multi-agent algorithmic trading system on Polymarket, the largest decentralized prediction market. The system pairs a locally-hosted 72-billion-parameter language model with a gradient-boosted statistical filter and an evolutionary selection mechanism that maintains a population of approximately 500 autonomous trading agents. Each agent generates a probability estimate for an event, compares it to the prevailing market price, and trades the resulting disagreement.

The central empirical exercise estimates a panel regression of trade-level profit on the absolute disagreement between the agent's probability estimate and the market price, controlling for agent identity, …

Volatility Modeling With An Application To Risk Parity Portfolios, Kenneth Hou

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis studies volatility modeling in the context of risk parity portfolio construction. I compare three risk parity portfolios that differ only in their underlying volatility model: a historical covariance baseline, a Bayesian stochastic volatility model, and a GRU–GARCH hybrid neural network. Using daily returns on Kenneth French’s five industry portfolios from January 2016 through December 2025, I construct monthly rebalanced portfolios under each model, with the SV and GRU forecasts embedded in hybrid covariance matrices that combine forecasted volatilities with rolling historical correlations. The results document a divergence between forecast accuracy and portfolio performance: the SV model is the …

Rank Rebalancing In Commodity And Foreign Exchange Markets, Prateek D. Vyas

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis empirically tests the rank-rebalancing mechanism of Stochastic Portfolio Theory (SPT) across commodity futures, foreign exchange futures, and equity ETFs. The Reverse Price-Weighted strategy (RPW) assigns, to each asset, the market weight of the asset at the opposite price rank, and generates an annualized excess return of 2.90% over the price-weighted (MKT) commodity benchmark, during the period of November 1977 to October 2025 (HAC t = 2.058, p = 0.040). The differential Sharpe ratio (dSharpe) of 0.245 is confirmed by a stationary block bootstrap, with a 𝑝-value of 0.015, and factor regressions controlling for carry, momentum, and value yield …

Trading Volume And Forecast Accuracy In Kalshi Prediction Markets, Nicholas Smole

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the accuracy of Kalshi prediction markets and how different measures of trading volume shape their calibration and predictive power. Expanding upon previous models, use nonparametric calibration curves, pseudo-likelihood regressions, and Brier-score regressions on a large panel of Kalshi contracts to compare the effects of ex-post total volume and cumulative trading volume on market accuracy. Markets are typically well-calibrated near expiration; however, at longer horizons, low-volume markets exhibit substantially more miscalibration. Holding time to expiration fixed, greater cumulative volume is associated with higher accuracy. In comparison, higher ex-post total volume is associated with lower accuracy, highlighting the importance …

The Lipstick Effect Across Economic Crises: An Empirical Study Of Cosmetics And Luxury Spending From 2004 – 2023, Richard M. Sweeney Iii

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines whether consumers shift toward lower-cost beauty products during periods of economic uncertainty and whether this behavior moves with financial market volatility. Using household-level microdata and aggregate monthly expenditure data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Expenditure Surveys (2004–2023), the study evaluates how cosmetics spending changes relative to jewelry across two major economic crises: the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Across both datasets, cosmetics consistently become a larger share of discretionary spending when economic conditions deteriorate, supporting the presence of a lipstick-effect pattern. At the macro level, cosmetics spending is generally inversely related to market …

The Tcja And Shareholder Payouts, Carson T. Bloom

CMC Senior Theses

Abstract

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) provided corporations an estimated $233 billion in tax savings, yet relatively little is known about how firms allocated this cash windfall. This study examines whether growth and mature firms differed in whether they used these tax savings to distribute dividends and repurchase shares. Using panel data on publicly traded North American firms from 2016–2019, I classify firms as either growth or mature based on their cash-flow patterns and estimate the effects of the TCJA on their behavior using a difference-in-differences design.

The results indicate that mature firms increased shareholder payouts significantly more …

From Static Λ To Moving Penalties: Dynamic Regularization In Mean-Variance Portfolio Choice, Ariel Santiago

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis evaluates whether dynamically tuned weight penalties can improve high-dimensional mean-variance portfolio choice. Classical Markowitz portfolios perform poorly when the number of assets is large relative to the data, because small estimation errors in means and covariances can generate extreme, fragile allocations. A common remedy is to regularize the weights using L1 (lasso), L2 (ridge), or elastic-net penalties, but these are typically chosen once and held fixed. Using monthly excess returns on the 48 Fama-French industry portfolios from January 2010 to June 2025, this thesis compares penalized mean-variance and minimum-variance strategies under long-only and long-short constraints, with and without …

Esg And Misvaluation In U.S. Equity Markets, Rohaan Bhojwani

CMC Senior Theses

Existing research has produced conflicting conclusions on whether environmental, social, and governance (ESG) characteristics are efficiently priced in equity markets. While some studies argue that ESG performance improves firm value through lower risk and stronger fundamentals, others suggest that investor demand has inflated valuations in the past beyond intrinsic worth. This thesis examines whether ESG-driven valuation gaps represent justified pricing through firm fundamentals or systematic mispricing using Bartram and Grinblatt’s Agnostic Fundamental Analysis Framework (2018).

For this paper, I analyze the top 1000 U.S public firms by market value. I regress the market value on 19 accounting fundamentals for these …

Forecasting The Unpredictable: The Bullwhip Effect In The Toy Industry, Mannat Sethi

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis investigates the bullwhip effect, the amplification of demand variability as it moves upstream in a supply chain, with a focus on the toy industry, and comparative analysis with the technology and consumer goods sectors. Using annual data from 1993 to 2024, the study analyzes production and retail growth for Mattel, Hasbro, Intel, and Procter & Gamble to assess how variance between consumer demand and firm output has changed over time. Bullwhip ratios are calculated as the variance of production growth divided by the variance of retail growth across two periods: 1993–2008 and 2009–2024.

The findings show that toy …

Analysis Of Banking-As-A-Service Partnerships’ Effects On The Performance Of U.S. Community Banks, Jonathan Ke

CMC Senior Theses

Over the past decade, financial technology (fintech) has emerged as an innovation reshaping the financial services landscape. One particular fintech that recently caught the attention of consumers and regulators is Banking-as-a-Service (BaaS). BaaS is often a partnership wherein a fintech company provides banking services, such as digital payments or lending, using the infrastructure and license of a sponsor bank. The bank manages regulatory compliance and core banking operations, while fintech focuses on developing and delivering innovative services to customers. On the one hand, BaaS partnerships allow banks to expand their customer base and service offerings without investing in extensive technological …

National And Regional Bank Deposits And Their Relationship To The Stock Market, Joseph Zhong

CMC Senior Theses

Institutional investors started using bank deposits as a Leading Economic Indicator to predict stock market returns. I find that bank deposits lead stock market returns by 2 weeks at the national level. Examining the mechanism through which bank deposits affect stock market returns, existing literature postulates the Bank Deposit Lending Channel: increased bank deposits increase financial liquidity, powering and leading stock market returns. I do not find evidence for the Bank Deposit Lending Channel. In my regional analysis, I find that bank deposit behavior differs drastically between US regions. In general, regional bank deposits still lead stock market returns. In …

Pay-Performance Sensitivity: How Firm Performance Impacts Ceo Compensation, Yuefeng Ma

CMC Senior Theses

This study investigates the relationship between firm performance and CEO compensation, revisiting and extending the foundational framework established by Jensen and Murphy (1990). The sample comprises compensation data for the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of all publicly traded companies on the Wharton Research Data Services (WRDS) Compustat – ExecuComp dataset from 1994 to 2023. Using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression models, the analysis evaluates the sensitivity of CEO pay to changes in shareholder wealth and other performance metrics, while accounting for structural and temporal shifts driven by corporate governance, macroeconomic environment, and legislation. The findings reveal that changes in shareholder …

Evaluating The Dual-Faceted Growth Strategies In The Healthcare Sector: A Comparative Analysis Of Organic Innovation And Inorganic Expansion, Isabel Carter

CMC Senior Theses

In order to stay competitive in an expansionary industry like healthcare, companies must consistently meet market demands for growth. This paper builds an empirical model to identify which growth strategies are most highly rewarded by the public markets. The model consists of a data set of 70 healthcare companies, across various healthcare verticals, to measure market returns from 2010 to 2023. The number of completed acquisitions is used as a proxy to identify each company’s propensity towards a growth strategy. Factors from the Fama-French Model and dummy variables used to signal growth strategy expertise, indicate that firms who invest more …

Optimizing Bitcoin Allocation: Predictability Of Bitcoin Portfolio Weights Through Macroeconomic Variables, Kirby Baynes

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines whether Bitcoin is a beneficial asset in a diversified, mean-variance optimized portfolio and whether its portfolio weights can be reliably predicted using macroeconomic variables. Using data from December 2013 to February 2025, the analysis applies rolling-window portfolio optimization and OLS regressions with Newey-West standard errors to test the relationship between Bitcoin allocations and a set of macroeconomic indicators. Results show that Bitcoin receives non-zero weights across portfolios and that its optimal allocation is sensitive to variables such as changes in the Credit Spread and Yield Curve. These variables were statistically significant in several models and produced meaningful …

The Counter-Cyclicality Of Earnings Management: Evidence Through 2024, William J. Hall

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and earnings management, extending the analysis of Hillegeist and Lin (2019) using updated data through 2024. Based on 16,635 firm-quarter observations, my study affirms the results found in prior literature and confirms that there is a negative association between the change in GDP and the direction of firms’ earnings management behavior, indicating that earnings management is counter-cyclical. My study also finds that firms manage earnings asymmetrically based on the current macroeconomic state, with firms managing earnings more in economic downturns and less in expansions. My findings suggest that despite major macroeconomic and …

Crowding-In Between Public And Private Investment In Developing Countries, Wally Bargeron

CMC Senior Theses

The tendency for public investment to crowd-in or crowd-out private investment is the subject of controversy in economic literature. This paper studies the relationship between public and private investment in fixed capital from 1970 to 2019 in 68 developing countries across Africa, Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America. I find evidence for a crowding-in relationship between public and private investment overall. The crowding-in effect is larger in countries with high scores for measures of good governance, including a score that measures legal framework for businesses and a score that measures corruption.

More Than A Feeling: Exploring The Drivers Of Music Catalog Values, Emily Nutting

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines which characteristics of songs affect transaction price in the sale of artist’s music catalogs. My analysis tests many variables, including the number of years between the song’s release its catalog’s sale (age); the natural log of the number of Spotify streams the song has (popularity); the genre of the song; themes in the song, such as dating, violence, romance, obscenity, sadness, and feelings; and elements of the song like danceability, energy, loudness, instrumentalness (the prevalence of instrumentals relative to vocals in a song), and acousticness (the measure of sound made using instruments as opposed to electronic means). …

Analyzing The Effects Of 2018 Bank Reclassifications On Individual Balance Sheet Compositions, Hiyab Abraha

CMC Senior Theses

The March 2023 collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) marked the second largest bank failure in United States history and the largest bank failure since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This paper analyzes the mechanisms underlying SVB’s downfall and explores the specific systemic vulnerabilities that March 2023 revealed. To study the impact of systemic risk reclassification on individual bank balance sheets, I construct a quarterly panel dataset of the largest US chartered banks and track their regulatory classification and financial reports from 2009 to 2023. The 2018 Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act (EGRRCPA) changed the Federal …

Nfl Positional Value In Terms Of Salary Cap Spending: Why Are Running Backs Undervalued?, Charlton Jackson

CMC Senior Theses

Running Backs over the past two decades have seen a contract value devaluation relative to other positions and the league's salary cap spending limit. The growth of running back salaries has stagnated in the past decade, and they currently fail to keep pace with the contracts for other positions. Through our empirical research, we were able to either reject or better explain existing reasoning for recent running back devaluation, such as the increase in passing volume, durability concerns, and running backs by committee. We found that the most significant change in the past 30 years of the NFL, since the …

Is Green The New Gold? Esg’S Influence On The Financial Performance Of The Energy And Mining Industries, Alexa De Vegvar

CMC Senior Theses

The demand for Environment, Social, and Governance (ESG) reporting has increased in recent years. As the concern for climate change has moved to the forefront of the investment process, companies have needed to prioritize ESG in their operations. Previous literature addresses how ESG has benefited companies’ financial performance and increased shareholder value. The pandemic has proven to have positively impacted ESG reporting as social priorities shifted. However, studies have also shown that ESG reporting is too ambiguous to concretely display any relationship with financial performance. This thesis will analyze the impact of ESG and environmental data reporting on the Return …

Capturing Value In Emerging Markets: A Real Options Perspective On Resilience And Risk, Alexander Castillo

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the evaluation of investment opportunities in emerging markets (EMs) through real options analysis, against the backdrop of their unique risk profiles and the recent trend of EMs exhibiting resilience in economic performance. While EMs are associated with high growth rates and infrastructure gaps, they have shown adaptability, particularly in monetary policy responses to inflation. This paper explores the sensitivity of net present value (NPV) and real options (RO) to changes in the capital asset pricing model, adapting the yield spread to capture default risk and local risk-free rates. Utilizing oil benchmark price data, the paper constructs a …

The Effects Of Spending-Focused Fiscal Policy On Italian Output And Stock Market Performance, Filippo Salvatico

CMC Senior Theses

This paper studies the effects of Italy’s expenditure-focused fiscal policy on (1) economic output, measured with real GDP growth, and (2) stock market performance, measured with FTSE MIB period returns, using ordinary least squares and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. To the first end, a quarterly (time series) data base of fiscal indicators—Budget Balance, Government Debt, and Government Expenditure—as well as other macroeconomic series is constructed to test their effects on output. To the second end, a monthly (time series) data base of the same indicators, as well as period returns for seven other benchmark stock exchanges across Europe, is …

The Efficacy Of Insider Trading Regulation: An Analysis Of The 1942 Introduction Of Sec Rule 10b-5, Kamila Melikova, Eric Hughson

CMC Senior Theses

Existing research has thoroughly examined the impact of insider trading regulations, finding mixed results regarding the effectiveness of new law introductions. Although this topic has received considerable attention, there is still a notable lack of research on the first regulation of insider trading: the 1942 introduction of Section 10(b), an amendment to the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. This paper uses a newly compiled dataset of earnings announcements from large public companies between 1937 and 1946, combined with event study methodology, to investigate the effectiveness of the very first ban on insider trading. Through the application of t-tests and regression …

Did Demonetization Have A Bigger Impact On Ppis (Prepaid Payment Instruments) Or Mobile Banking In India?, Ansh Vora

CMC Senior Theses

On November 8, 2016, Narendra Modi, prime minister of India, tele-advertised the entire nation and announced that India's highest value banknotes, the 500 and 1000 rupee “Rs” notes would be demonetized and taken out of circulation, effective midnight. Modi stated that this is an effort to reduce the large economy of black money, transition India into a digital economy, abolish funding of terrorist groups and illicit circulation of counterfeit notes. In this study, I choose to analyze the impact of demonetization on two digital payment methods - Prepaid Payment Instruments, “PPI” and Mobile Banking. The data used in this study …

Application Of Sentiment Analysis And Machine Learning Techniques To Predict Daily Cryptocurrency Price Returns, Edward Wu

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the effects of social media sentiment relating to Bitcoin on the daily price returns of Bitcoin and other popular cryptocurrencies by utilizing sentiment analysis and machine learning techniques to predict daily price returns. Many investors think that social media sentiment affects cryptocurrency prices. However, the results of this paper find that social media sentiment relating to Bitcoin does not add significant predictive value to forecasting daily price returns for each of the six cryptocurrencies used for analysis and that machine learning models that do not assume linearity between the current day price return and previous daily price …

Private Equity – The Rescue Or Destruction Of Financially Distressed Investments, Alex Wilson

CMC Senior Theses

This paper investigates the effect PE-backing has on portfolio companies in financial distress. Inspired by the more recent questioning of the morality of the Private Equity industry, this paper analyzes the change in financial health after a PE buyout transaction and directly compares that of financially distressed firms during the same time period that were not PE-backed. This study utilizes a dataset made up of financially distressed, public US firms as of 2009, and assesses the change in Z-score ~10 years after PE investment to determine whether PE-backing has an effect on the change in financial health. The negative coefficient …

Liquidity Outbreak: A 49 Country Analysis Of The Money Supply’S Effect On Stock Markets During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Dylan Porter

CMC Senior Theses

This paper compares the effects of monthly money growth on monthly stock market performance in 49 countries around the world before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Countries are grouped in aggregate, by continent, and development status. OLS panel regressions show that lagged monetary growth variables are better monetary indicators of stock market performance than contemporaneous values. Variables that measure the pandemic’s progress (infections/deaths and government responses) are included alongside macro-economic variables but are seldom significant. Monetary growth had less correlation with the stock market during the pre-pandemic period (January 2018 - December 2020), suggesting that the uncertain economic conditions of …

Nft-Related Companies: Token Sale Returns, Robert Liu

CMC Senior Theses

Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) have emerged as a new means of digital asset ownership and many companies are building projects that revolve around the technology. These companies are blockchain-based and raise capital for their projects through cryptocurrency token sales, which have become a new mechanism of entrepreneurial finance. In a sample of 62 NFT-related companies, I examine which company, fundraising, and token sale process characteristics are associated with the performance of 7-day and 60-day market returns after a token’s public listing. A multivariate regression analysis finds that the total amount of capital raised before a token launch has a negative relationship …

The Rising Power Of The Individual Investor: How Social Media Sentiments And User Activity Impact Stock Price Volatility And Trading Volume, Nandini Jayaram

CMC Senior Theses

This paper investigates the relationship between social media sentiments and user activity on the ability of online platforms like Robinhood, Reddit, and Twitter to drive volatility in stock returns and trading volume of shares. The research contributes to the existing literature by studying the potential power of social media communities to influence the stock market parameters. The dataset includes information for several stocks of daily Robinhood users, mentions in r/wallstreetbets, number of Twitter followers, as well as closing price and trading volume data. Using a fixed effects panel data model, the regressions yield statistically significant results that indicate higher WallStreetBets …

Zoom In, Class Out: An Event Study On Publicly Traded Ed Tech Firm Valuations During Covid-19, Matiss Ozols

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines how publicly traded Ed Tech firms reacted to negative announcements regarding COVID-19. Using an event study method, I document how an international portfolio of Ed Tech firms react across multiple event windows. The results show that Ed Tech firms reacted positively to the announcement of the first US death and negatively to the World Health Organization’s declaration that COVID-19 was a pandemic. Additionally, differences in geographical location did not impact cumulative abnormal returns across event windows. Finally, firm-specific characteristics such as volatility and financial leverage had little or no significance on stock returns.