Econometrics Commons^™

Empty Discarded Pack Data And The Prevalence Of Illicit Trade In Cigarettes In California, James Prieger

School of Public Policy Working Papers

Illicit trade in tobacco products (ITTP) creates many harms including reduced tax revenues; damages to the economic interests of legitimate actors; funding for organized-crime and terrorist groups; negative effects of participation in illicit markets, such as violence and incarceration; and reduced effectiveness of smoking-reduction policies, leading to increased damage to health. To study the prevalence of tax avoidance and ITTP, we analyze a large, novel set of data from empty discarded pack (EDP) studies. In EDP studies, teams of researchers collect all cigarette packs discarded in publicly accessible spaces of selected neighborhoods. Packs are examined for the absence of local …

Modeling And Forecasting Glacier National Park Visitation, Michael James Kernan

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

National parks have recently seen increased visitation demand. Glacier National Park is located in an area where changes in weather and climate will occur at an accelerated rate. Changes in fire and precipitation regimes are taking place at a time when Glacier National Park is setting new visitation records. This paper uses regression and forecast models to investigate the changing landscape of park visitation.

Findings suggest important impacts to monthly visitation and cycling on Going-to-the-Sun Road in Glacier National Park are associated with forest fire activity and precipitation. The conclusions of this paper support perceptions about the effect natural occurrences …

The Effect Of Outward Foreign Direct Investment On Exports In Japan During The Lost Decade, 1985-2005, Alexandros Ladas

Dissertations and Theses

This study will utilize an OLS analysis of the panel data coming from various databases such as the World Bank, Federal Reserve and etc. to determine if there exists a significant correlation between the exports of Japan and its foreign direct investment (FDI) in the period of 1985-2005 with nearby trading partners of which include the countries of ASEAN, China and South Korea. In addition, a selection of supplemental factors will be used to determine if they also possess any significance with exports. These factors include: the exchange rate of the Japanese yen with the currency of the trading partner …

Are Cds Auctions The Tail Wagging The Dog? An Empirical Study Of Corporate Bond Return Volatility At The Time Of Default, Jennifer Mace

CMC Senior Theses

Over the past decade, numerous engineered credit events and cases of market participants manipulating bond prices to influence Credit Default Swap (CDS) auction payouts have occurred. These cases have become increasingly common, and the CFTC has stated they may constitute market manipulation and undermine not only the CDS market but also the credit derivative and default markets. Although there is a plethora of news and media coverage on publicized cases, there is no previous empirical research on evidence of these practices. This paper is motivated by the desire to determine if there is indirect evidence of bond price manipulation around …

A Comparative Analysis On Output Gap - Inflation Relation: The New Keynesian Approach, Oladimeji Tomiwa Shodipe

Masters Theses

The thrust of this research paper is to examine the inflation information that is contained in the output gap using the New Keynesian Phillips Curve framework. As informed by the model, the study also sets to investigate inflation persistence and the influence of forward inertia on the current inflation. This paper follows the Gali and Monacelli (2005) of the small open-economy type of model. However, the current study differs by introducing external factors (trade and real exchange rate) not only on the hybrid model, also on the backward, forward and the hybrid restricted models for time-series data (1971-2017) of all …

Essays In Development Economics, Manini Ojha

Economics Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation consists of three empirical essays in development economics. In the first essay, I examine the impact of a health insurance scheme called the Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana (RSBY), launched in 2008 in India, on schooling decisions and gender differences in education. At the outset, it is not entirely obvious as to whether health insurance would benefit education or have a detrimental impact. Healthier children could either mean greater future economic returns from schooling or greater value as child labour. More specifically, the questions I seek to answer are twofold: (1) Does access to a health insurance scheme designed …

Empirical Essays In Household Economics, Hao Li

Economics Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation is consist of three empirical studies in economics. The first part empirically examines the effect of universal pre-k on labor force participation of fertility age women in Oklahoma. I investigate the policy effect from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. I apply the synthetic control method (SCM) to the Current Population Survey (CPS) data to identify the causal relationship between universal pre-k and female labor outcomes. I find that universal pre-k increases labor supply of women aged 25 to 45 in Oklahoma. The second empirical study focuses on how the birth outcomes of US children respond to exposure to …

Empirical Essays On Corruption, Sanchari Choudhury

Economics Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation focuses on explaining causal relationships between corruption and various economic and political policies and institutions like governmental decentralization in countries, membership to an international organization like the World Trade Organization (WTO), and federal regulatory constraints of industries in the United States. While identifying causality in issues concerning corruption and these above-mentioned factors is crucial, attaining it credibly is not straightforward. Measurement error and/or unobserved heterogeneity make a causal analysis challenging. This dissertation, therefore, attempts to apply state-of-the-art econometric techniques to circumvent the empirical issues underlying such studies and identify the causal link. Alongside the applications, this work strives …

Literacy Rates Analysis: An International Comparison, Macarena Arce

Economics Undergraduate Honors Theses

This paper attempts to provide a more complete reckoning of the economics of literacy rates around the world. It consists on a literature review about the economic benefits and costs of literacy rates and then it shows two econometrics models that attempt to predict literacy rates based on GDP, government expenditure, and several other independent variables.

Natural Amenities And Rural Development: A Multilevel Analysis Of Regional Trends And Local Patterns, Dawson Reisig

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

As rural communities began seeing increased rates of growth following the rural rebound of the 1970’s, many studies have examined the causes and consequences of this shift through the lens of regional amenities and migration trends. Additionally, as development patterns have moved outwards from concentrated growth in urban areas to sprawling development at the rural-urban fringe, many studies have examined the locations of rural development in relation to open space and the amenities it provides. However, examinations of the relationship between these two processes have been severely lacking in the field of land use studies, despite widespread acknowledgement that the …

Exploring The Relation Between Sectoral Foreign Direct Investment And Domestic Investment: Case For Turkey, Selin Erkan

Dissertations and Theses

This thesis investigates the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and domestic investment in Turkey during 2005Q1-2016Q2 to see if there is a crowding-in or crowding-out relationship. Sectoral FDI data for manufacturing, agriculture and service are employed and gross fixed capital formation is used as a proxy for domestic investment. GDP and export are used as control variables. A VAR model estimates negative coefficients of sectoral FDI on domestic investment indicating that there is some crowding-out in Turkey during 2005Q1-2016Q2 although not one-for-one. These negative effects are concentrated in the manufacturing sector.

Analysis Of The Economic Impact Of Constructing A Nba Arena On The Host City, Grant Gilchrist

CMC Senior Theses

Using economic data collected from 24 different Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the US, this thesis investigates the impact of constructing a new National Basketball Association (NBA) arena on the host city’s economy. When a simplistic model is implemented, which does not control for other economic factors or individual subject heterogeneity, significantly positive economic impacts of arena construction are observed. However, when a more appropriate model specification is implemented that controls for economic activity and individual heterogeneity, these effects are no longer statistically significant. This comparative analysis ultimately highlights the importance of appropriate model specification and supports the conclusion that new …

School Resources And Student Outcomes: Evidence From The State Of Illinois, Alyssa Cooper

Student Research – Stevenson Center

Literature on the subject of school resources and student outcomes tends to find that there is a positive relationship between both variables. Most literature uses per-pupil spending (PPS) or teacher salaries as a measure of school resources. While I have modeled both in my paper, my focus in this paper is on per-pupil spending. Using data from the Illinois State Board of Education from 2006-2016 and measuring student outcomes through average ACT scores, operational PPS is found to be insignificant, whereas instructional PPS is found to be positive and significant at the 5% level. Estimates suggest that a 1 standard …

The Effect Of Integration: A Study On The Impact Of Diversity On Economic Indicators, Luke H. Schleier

Undergraduate Honors Theses

This paper examines the effect of diversity, measured by the dissimilarity index, on the economic strength of an area. Economic strength is measured using five economic indicators: median home value, median income, median gross rent, percentage of people with health insurance, and firms per capita. The work aims to show that there is a positive economic impact due to integrating and creating communities that are more diverse. Previous work shows there is a positive impact of diversity on economic indicators such as wages, rents, and production but previous studies do not look at the effect on these economic indicators. This …

Does A Better Running Back Mean More Rushing? Game Theory And The Nfl, Eric Lofquist

Honors Scholar Theses

In this paper I attempt to answer the question of whether or not teams in the National Football League (NFL) rush less with a better running back. This seems counterintuitive, but game theory supposes that this is true. Defenses facing a better running back will generally expect the offense to rush more and therefore defend the run more often. The offense, foreseeing the defense’s actions, will choose to pass more to counteract the run defense. This is the basis of the difference between the strategic effect and the direct effect in mixed strategies. The direct effect is when a player …

The Retirement Strategy Of Supreme Court Justices: An Economic Approach, Kayla M. Joyce

Honors Scholar Theses

Previous research has identified strategic behavior in the nomination, confirmation, and retirement processes of the Supreme Court, each independently. This paper analyzes the interaction between the justices, the president, and the Senate in these processes. I constructed a game theoretic model to consider the nomination and approval process of Supreme Court justices and the change in dynamics that might result from an impending election. I hypothesize that sitting justices take into account the party affiliations of the president and the Senate when they are deciding whether it is the optimal time to retire to achieve their own strategic objectives. The …

Does Where You Grow Up Affect Your Chances Of Being Drafted Into The Nfl?, Walker Head

Georgia College Student Research Events

The minimum rookie salary in the National Football League (NFL) is $450,000. First round picks often sign multi-year contracts worth more than $10 million. Players from some states are much more likely to receive college scholarships and eventually be drafted into the NFL, but it is not clear if this is a causal relationship. Utilizing data from Rivals and the NFL, I attempt to determine if where a player grew up has an impact on his chances of being drafted to play professional football. I focus on the top eight states, as it relates to percentage of recruits and my …

An Outlay Equivalence Analysis Of South African Households, Samuel Peevey

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

A significant amount of evidence suggests that gender inequality in the developing world negatively impacts women and girls’ health, education and future wage potential. This thesis investigates whether households in South Africa discriminated against their girl children, in favor of their boy children. Additionally, I will investigate whether household heads favored children matching their own sex. Using the 1^st wave of the National Income Dynamics Study and Angus Deaton’s outlay-equivalence ratio method, I will estimate the impact, 8 age and sex categories have on their household’s adult goods expenditure. I found statistically significant but practically insignificant evidence, from a …

The Economic Impacts Of Cougars In Western Washington, Todd Stoothoff

All Master's Theses

The combination of increasing cougar populations and the rising human population in Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) areas suggests that the number of human-cougar encounters will rise as well. The increase in human-cougar encounters creates potential issues in regard to public safety, public policy, and management of predators. For the purposes of this research, I employ a housing dataset for eleven counties in western Washington in order to quantify the impacts of a confirmed cougar sighting on the sale value of a home. Specifically, I employ the hedonic real estate price model. Results show statistically significant impacts on housing values in the …

European Union Membership And Levels Of Corruption, Kevin J. Morris

The Corinthian

Recent accessions to the European Union (E.U.) membership have been met with protests as critics noted the widespread corruption still rampant in both recent and established member countries. Given the global ramifications of the debt crises in Italy, Spain, and Greece, determining the efficacy of the E.U. Accession Reforms and Membership Criteria on corruption reduction is vitally important. Using European and Central Asian country-level data from the World Bank’s Global Development and Global Indicator database regional-level fixed effects, I estimate the impact of EU membership on corruption levels and find that E.U. membership has a small, but significant impact on …

Macroconstants Of Development: A New Benchmark For The Strategic Development Of Advanced Countries And Firms, Andrey V. Bystrov, Vyacheslav N. Yusim, Tamilla Curtis

Publications

This research proposed a new indicator of countries’ development called “macroconstants of development”. The literature review indicates that the concept of "macroconstants of development" is not used at the moment in neither the theory nor the practice of industrial policy. Research of longitudinal data of total GDP, GDP per capita and their derivatives for most countries of the world was conducted. An analysis of statistical information has been done by employing econometric analyses.

Based on the analysis of the statistical data, which characterizes the development of large, technologically advanced countries in ordinary conditions, it was identified that the average acceleration …

Shaky Foundations: The Tradeoff Between Structural Safety And Financial Security, Grace Daly

Undergraduate Honors Theses

This paper investigates the relationship between the financial positions of a subcontractor and their performance on the construction site. Financial default by a subcontractor can cost general contractors additional time and expense, as they try to find replacements and keep the projects on schedule. This highlights the importance of vetting subcontractors before awarding a bid. This study attempts to bridge the gap between the subjective nature of construction quality and the more technical financial analysis in determining the overall quality of subcontractors. Safety measures are also incorporated into performance ratings. Data is collected for the years 2009 through 2014 from …

The Impact Of Foreign Direct Investment On Labor Market Measures: Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa, David A. Mayom

Master's Theses

There is scant literature examining the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and labor market measures in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. This paper explores the effect of FDI on the labor market measures using panel data of 48 Sub-Saharan African Countries from 1991 to 2009. The result indicates that FDI has a positive and significant effect on employment implying that an increase in the inflow of FDI is associated with higher employment. Thus, Sub-Saharan African governments should strongly consider poverty alleviation and employment policies that encourage and direct FDI to the industries where it can significantly reduce unemployment.

Privatization & Fdi: Examining Growth In Vietnam's Provinces, William T. Clark

Master's Theses

Over the past three decades many developing countries have looked toward privatizing investment markets and relying more on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to supply needed capital investment for their emerging private sectors. In their pursuit of foreign capital, developing countries have enacted several changes in economic policy and regulation in hopes of transforming formerly rural and undeveloped countries into highly urbanized centers of global production. This is particularly true for a transitioning economy such as Vietnam, which has seen increasing privatization of industry and investment since the reforms of 1986 known as “Doi Moi.” In this study I …

Economic Growth And Development In Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, And Latin America: The Impact Of Human Capital, Angui D. Macham

Applied Economics Theses

My thesis is that human capital has been important to growth, but has had differential impact in three areas: Sub-Sahara Africa; Asia; and Latin America. I estimated three regional models to determine the impact of human capital on the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Each model was estimated using the pooled OLS approach with a sample of 10 countries within each region. I make use of data from the Penn World Table- international comparisons of production data bank. I found that only the African region had statistically significant coefficients for both physical and human capital. For the …

Economic Analysis Of Flight Delay, Nathan D. Boettcher

Seaver College Research And Scholarly Achievement Symposium

Our project began as an investigation into the phenomenon of flight delay. We approached this problem with two goals in mind. First, we used mathematical statistics and econometric methods to develop a predictive model of flight delay. An improved forecasting process has obvious benefits for customers, and would additionally shed light on the factors which airports and airlines should seek to change in order to reduce flight delay. Our secondary goal was to complement this predictive research with a theoretical analysis of the incentive structure that consumers and producers face. We limited the scope of this model to delayed flights …

Individuals Willingness To Pay For Health And Wellness In The Built Environment, Max Pollinger

Journal of Environmental and Resource Economics at Colby

Improving biological sustainability through health and wellness improvements in the built environment is currently being applied to high-end real estate development in both the residential and commercial environment in the United States. However, the market for health and wellness extends well beyond the top income bracket. This study adopts a choice experiment (CE) approach to investigate individual’s willingness to pay (WTP) for health and wellness improvements within their homes. The results suggest that individuals value health as an inelastic good independent of income, and they are willing to pay significant premiums to ensure biological sustainability within their homes independent of …

Specification Test For Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects, Liangjun Su, Sainan Jin, Yonghui Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we propose a consistent nonparametric test for linearity in a large dimensional panel data model with interactive fixed effects. Both lagged dependent variables and conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form are allowed in the model. We estimate the model under the null hypothesis of linearity to obtain the restricted residuals which are then used to construct the test statistic. We show that after being appropriately centered and standardized, the test statistic is asymptotically normally distributed under both the null hypothesis and a sequence of Pitman local alternatives by using the concept of conditional strong mixing that was recently …

Jackknife Model Averaging For Quantile Regressions, Xun Lu, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we consider the problem of frequentist model averaging for quantile regression (QR) when all the M models under investigation are potentially misspecified and the number of parameters in some or all models is diverging with the sample size n. To allow for the dependence between the error terms and the regressors in the QR models, we propose a jackknife model averaging (JMA) estimator which selects the weights by minimizing a leave-one-out cross-validation criterion function and demonstrate that the jackknife selected weight vector is asymptotically optimal in terms of minimizing the out-of-sample final prediction error among the given …

State Level Earned Income Tax Credit’S Effects On Race And Age: An Effective Poverty Reduction Policy, Anthony J. Barone

CMC Senior Theses

In this paper, I analyze the effectiveness of state level Earned Income Tax Credit programs on improving of poverty levels. I conducted this analysis for the years 1991 through 2011 using a panel data model with fixed effects. The main independent variables of interest were the state and federal EITC rates, minimum wage, gross state product, population, and unemployment all by state. I determined increases to the state EITC rates provided only a slight decrease to both the overall white below-poverty population and the corresponding white childhood population under 18, while both the overall and the under-18 black population for …