Econometrics Commons^™

Self-Financing, Parental Transfer, And College Education, Jungho Lee, Sunha Myong

Research Collection School Of Economics

We show that financial constraints can affect the human capital accumulation of college students by influencing students’ labor supply. We document that many college students work a substantial number of hours at low-skill jobs, and students who have fewer financial resources (in particular, parental transfer) tend to work more. We develop a model that incorporates college students’ labor supply and its interaction with parental transfer in the presence of financial constraints. By estimating the model, we quantify the trade-off between self-financing and human capital accumulation and discuss the implications of a wage subsidy policy.

Are There Differences In Household Borrowing Across Religions?, Seth Dunn

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

This study explores the relationship between religion and economic behavior, specifically asking whether variations in household borrowing can be attributable to identification with different Christian religious traditions across the United States. The hypothesis of different borrowing behaviors across religions is motivated historically and theoretically. Historical data from l967 and 1971 are used in ordinary least squared and logistic regression analyses. Density of religious affiliations and relevant controls are used to predict households’ debt and attitudes towards different reasons for borrowing. Some differences across religions are found. This research contributes to a broader literature exploring the impact of religion on economic …

Understanding Factors Influencing Electric Vehicle Adoption: Evidence From Panel Data Analysis, Ryker Brian

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

This paper investigates the factors influencing the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) using panel data from California. The analysis employs a panel data model with within effects to examine the relationship between EV adoption rates and various socio-economic factors. The continued analysis gives out-of-sample forecasted results for the 4 counties with the highest share of electric vehicles registered in 2021. Additionally, the paper explores the influence of supply-side issues and complementary infrastructure on EV adoption. An introduction to Hidden Markov Methods is then given as the next step in the research.

Sharing Economy Last Mile Delivery: Three Essays Addressing Operational Challenges, Customer Expectations, And Supply Uncertainty, Nicolò Masorgo

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Last mile delivery has become a critical competitive dimension facing retail supply chains. At the same time, the emergence of sharing economy platforms has introduced unique operational challenges and benefits that enable and inhibit retailers’ last mile delivery goals. This dissertation investigates key challenges faced by crowdshipping platforms used in last mile delivery related to crowdsourced delivery drivers, driver-customer interaction, and customer expectations. We investigate the research questions of this dissertation through a multi-method design approach, complementing a rich archival dataset comprised of several million orders retrieved from a Fortune 100 retail crowdshipping platform, with scenario-based experiments. Specifically, the first …

Business Cycle Downturn Estimation For Ciudad Juarez: 1991-2022, Steven L. Fullerton, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr.

Border Region Modeling Project

A monthly frequency metropolitan business cycle downturn likelihood equation is estimated for Ciudad Juarez. The binary index of economic conditions is based upon monthly IMMEX export oriented manufacturing employment. A dynamic probit methodology is used for parameter estimation. Continuous explanatory variables include a 1-year minus 1-month Mexico interest rate spread, a 2015 = 100 weighted real exchange rate index, and a 10-year minus 3-month USA interest rate spread. Parameter estimation results confirm the various hypotheses examined. However, model simulation outcomes are less favorable with the results indicating that accurate forecasting of the post-2010 business cycles may require additional refinement to …

Spatial Disaggregation Of Poverty And Disability: Application To Tanzania, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

Estimating poverty measures for disabled people in developing countries is often difficult, partly because relevant data are not readily available. We extend the small-area estimation developed by Elbers, Lanjouw and Lanjouw (2002, 2003) to estimate poverty by the disability status of the household head, when the disability status is unavailable in the survey. We propose two alternative approaches to this extension: Aggregation and Instrumental Variables Approaches. We apply these approaches to data from Tanzania and show that both approaches work. Our estimation results show that disability is indeed positively associated with poverty in every region of mainland Tanzania.

Common Bubble Detection In Large Dimensional Financial Systems, Ye Chen, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi

Research Collection School Of Economics

Price bubbles in multiple assets are sometimes nearly coincident in occurrence. Such near-coincidence is strongly suggestive of co-movement in the associated asset prices and is likely driven by certain factors that are latent in the financial or economic system with common effects across several markets. Can we detect the presence of such common factors at the early stages of their emergence? To answer this question, we build a factor model that includes I(1), mildly explosive, and stationary factors to capture normal, exuberant, and collapsing phases in such phenomena. The I(1) factor models the primary driving force of market fundamentals. The …

Group Identity And The Formation Of Conditional Social Preferences Among Chinese Youth, Timo Heinrich, Jason Shachat, Qinjuan Wan

ESI Working Papers

Con icts between local and migrant populations have been ubiquitous in modern China. We examine the potential for longer-term amelioration of this conflict through successive generations and intergroup contact within integrated schooling. We adopt the perspective that in- and out-group biased behaviour structurally arises from group conditional social preferences. We assess the group-conditional social preferences of local and migrant children in a second-tier Chinese city, Xiamen, and the extent these preferences correlate with those of their parents. We find that local students have a greater likelihood of Egalitarian preferences and a lower likelihood of Generous preferences when allocating with locals …

Regresi Ambang Untuk Mendalami Pengaruh Nonlinier Kekuatan Pasar Terhadap Pinjaman Bank Di Asean-5, Mahjus Ekananda

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

Credit distribution has developed rapidly in the ASEAN region and it is largely dominated by the banking sector compared to other financial institutions. This study explores the effects of various changes to the GDP growth regime, firm size, and monetary policy. The objects of this research are commercial banks in ASEAN-5 from year 2010 to 2019. This study utilises the threshold regression method and a single proxy to measure market power. Results of this study found that monetary policy and market forces affect productive credit. Changes in impact that occur are mostly due to different behavior between banks in response …

Revisiting The Exchange Rate Pass- Through To Domestic Prices In Egypt, Ahmed Abdelhamid

Theses and Dissertations

Exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) refers to the extent to which the movements in the exchange rate influence domestic prices. This study revisits the exchange rate pass-through in Egypt using quarter data from 2006 to 2022. The study employs a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model to estimate the degree of ERPT. The findings suggest that ERPT in Egypt is incomplete, meaning that changes in the exchange rate do not fully pass through to consumer prices. The study also investigates the role of the money supply in absorbing the shocks in the nominal exchange rate. The study has important implications for policymakers …

Monitoring The Philippine Economy State Of The Economy Report, Mitzie Irene P. Conchada, Lawrence B. Dacuycuy, Jesus Felipe, Desher Edgar Empeño, Brendan Emmanuel A. Miranda

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

The Philippine economy recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic during 2022. It posted a very high annual growth rate, 7.6%, although this must be understood in the context of a low base. AKI’s State of the Economy Report focuses on three issues in the context of the new Administration’s 8-Point Socioeconomic Agenda and the Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028: growth, inflation, and the fiscal deficit and national debt. Overall, we have a positive view of the economy over the medium and long-term. However, we argue that:

-The focus of economic policy has to shift decisively toward changing the structure of the economy …

Volatility Puzzle: Long Memory Or Anti-Persistency, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

The log realized volatility (RV) is often modeled as an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average model ARFIMA(1,d,01,d,0). Two conflicting empirical results have been found in the literature. One stream shows that log RV has a long memory (i.e., the fractional parameter d > 0). The other stream suggests that the autoregressive coefficient α is near unity with antipersistent errors (i.e., d α close to 0 and d close to 0.5) from Model 2Model 2 (ARFIMA(1,d,01,d,0) with α close to unity and d close to –0.5). An intuitive explanation is given. For the 10 financial assets considered, despite that no definitive conclusions …

Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models Based On Generalized Fisher Transformation, Han Chen, Yijie Fei, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Modeling multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) can be challenging, particularly when both variances and covariances are time-varying. In this paper, we address these challenges by introducing a new MSV model based on the generalized Fisher transformation of Archakov and Hansen (2021). Our model is highly exible and ensures that the variance-covariance matrix is always positive-definite. Moreover, our approach separates the driving factors of volatilities and correlations. To conduct Bayesian analysis of the model, we use a Particle Gibbs Ancestor Sampling (PGAS) method, which facilitates Bayesian model comparison. We also extend our MSV model to cover the leverage effect in volatilities and …

The Impact Of Upzoning On Housing Construction In Auckland*, Ryan Greenaway-Mcgrevy, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

There is a growing debate about whether upzoning is an effective policy response to housing shortages and unaffordable housing. This paper provides empirical evidence to further inform debate by examining the various impacts of recently implemented zoning reforms on housing construction in Auckland, the largest metropolitan area in New Zealand. In 2016, the city upzoned approximately three quarters of its residential land to facilitate construction of more intensive housing. We use a quasi-experimental approach to analyze the short-run impacts of the reform on construction, allowing for potential shifts in construction from non-upzoned to upzoned areas (displacement effects) that would, if …

Bootstrapping Two-Stage Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimators Of Time Series Models, Sílvia Gonçalves, Ulrich Hounyo, Andrew John Patton, Kevin Sheppard

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article provides results on the validity of bootstrap inference methods for two-stage quasi-maximum likelihood estimation involving time series data, such as those used for multivariate volatility models or copula-based models. Existing approaches require the researcher to compute and combine many first- and second-order derivatives, which can be difficult to do and is susceptible to error. Bootstrap methods are simpler to apply, allowing the substitution of capital (CPU cycles) for labor (keeping track of derivatives). We show the consistency of the bootstrap distribution and consistency of bootstrap variance estimators, thereby justifying the use of bootstrap percentile intervals and bootstrap standard …

Climate & Conflict: View Into A Warming World, Faelynn Carroll

Master's Theses

Unlike weather patterns, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a large-scale, cyclical climate system that is now predictable for up to a year and a half in advance. ENSO cycles occur every two to seven years for approximately two years at a time, affecting large swaths of the globe with plausibly random variation in the exact location and strength of local effects. However, its systemic nature allows for aggregate effects to be accounted for by its outcomes. This research uses novel 0.5 x 0.5 degree ENSO teleconnection analysis for precipitation and temperature to uncover environmental mechanisms that underly the …

Quantifying The Impact Of Airlines Exit In Tourism Destinations. The Cases Of Monarch And Thomas Cook, Ubay Pérez-Granja, Juan Luis Eugenio-Martin

ITSA 2022 Gran Canaria - 9th Biennial Conference: Corporate Entrepreneurship and Global Tourism Strategies After Covid 19

We analyze the impact on tourists’ arrivals after the bankruptcies of Monarch Airlines and Thomas Cook. It draws on arrivals from the UK to Canary Islands and it employs a univariate and multivariate structural time series with level interventions. More interestingly, after Monarch exit, the policymakers applied a laissez faire strategy, which resulted in a 93.04% net loss of their level of traffic in Tenerife. However, after Thomas Cook exit, the policymakers intervened in the market proposing incentives to the incumbent airlines to cover the loss. It resulted in a 34.72% net loss of Thomas Cook level of traffic. Moreover, …

Discrete Rule Learning In First Price Auctions, Jason Shachat, Lijia Wei

ESI Working Papers

We present a hidden Markov model of discrete strategic heterogeneity and learning in first price independent private values auctions. The model includes three latent bidding rules: constant absolute mark-up, constant percentage mark-up, and strategic best response. Rule switching probabilities depend upon a bidder's past auction outcomes and a myopic reinforcement learning dynamic. We apply this model to a new experiment that varies the number of bidders and the auction frame between forward and reverse. We find the proportion of bidders following constant absolute mark-up increases with experience, and is higher when the number of bidders is large. The primary driver …

The Effect Of Trading Volume On Stock Price, Jackson Dino

Gettysburg College Headquarters

Knowledge of the relationship between trading volume and trading equities enhances investors and public policy maker’s knowledge of market structure. In this paper, we examine the effects of trading volume on stock prices using a panel of stock prices from the S&P 500 Index. We develop an ordinary least squares regression model, implementing control variables, fixed effects and an instrumental variable to minimize statistical bias. We find evidence that an increase of trading volume by its mean is associated with a $2.42 increase in average stock price. We also find stronger evidence that an increase of trading volume by its …

Climate Change: The Ultimate Cereal Killer: The Impact Of Temperature And Precipitation On Agricultural Yields, Hayley Huber, Robert Salita, Ruth Abraham

Gettysburg College Headquarters

The global food supply depends on agricultural production, but as the negative effects of climate change are exacerbated by human activity, how will agriculture need to change to accommodate both climate change and the increasing population? In order to understand what adaptations will be necessary, we perform analysis on the relationship between climate change (temperature and precipitation) and crop yields (barley, rice, and soybean). We take a multinational approach, using ten countries for each model, to see the global impact of climate change on production. Testing many models, we settle on country-specific time trends, eliminating many confounding variables by focusing …

Regression-Adjusted Estimation Of Quantile Treatment Effects Under Covariate-Adaptive Randomizations, Liang Jiang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Yubo Tao, Yichong Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Datasets from field experiments with covariate-adaptive randomizations (CARs) usually contain extra covariates in addition to the strata indicators. We propose to incorporate these additional covariates via auxiliary regressions in the estimation and inference of unconditional quantile treatment effects (QTEs) under CARs. We establish the consistency and limit distribution of the regression-adjusted QTE estimator and prove that the use of multiplier bootstrap inference is non-conservative under CARs. The auxiliary regression may be estimated parametrically, nonparametrically, or via regularization when the data are high-dimensional. Even when the auxiliary regression is misspecified, the proposed bootstrap inferential procedure still achieves the nominal rejection probability …

Essays On Culture, Institutions, And Development, Meng Liu

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation consists of three chapters that study culture, institutions, and economic development. In the first chapter, we study the impact of Confucianism on long-run development in northern Vietnam. Using the variation in Confucian literati across 217 historical districts between the Primitive Le and Nguyen dynasties (1426 CE - 1919 CE), we find that districts with greater exposure to Confucianism have experienced better economic outcomes over the past century. The result is robust to using the distance to exogenously located hermit Confucian as an instrument and accounting for a battery of confounders. We show that the positive effects of Confucianism …

Endogenous Political Legitimacy: The Tudor Roots Of England’S Constitutional Governance, Avner Greif, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

This paper highlights the importance of endogenous changes in the foundations of legitimacy for political regimes. It focuses on the central role of legitimacy changes in the rise of constitutional monarchy in England. It first defines legitimacy and briefly elaborates a theoretical framework enabling a historical study of this unobservable variable. It proceeds to substantiate that the low-legitimacy, post-Reformation Tudor monarchs of the 16th century promoted Parliament to enhance their legitimacy, thereby changing the legislative process from the “Crown and Parliament” to the “Crown in Parliament” that still prevails in England.

Digital Economy, Institutional Quality And Economic Growth In Selected Countries, Olabode P. Olofin Mr.

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the role of digital economy and institutional quality on economic growth of Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria. The study adopts the feasible generalized least square method with annual panel data from 1985 to 2017. Results show that digital economy, human capital and knowledge worker, and democratic accountability promote economic growth, while corruption, socioeconomic conditions, and bureaucratic quality retard economic growth. Furthermore, interaction of digital economy with corruption promotes growth. However, the interaction of digital economy with institutional quality retards economic growth, which could be due to the deteriorating institutional quality and low level of economic digitalization in …

Food Price And Inflation Adjustments In Nigeria: Evidence From Threshold Cointegration, Usman A. Bello, Aliyu R. Sanusi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates two stages of transmission through which inflation stabilization policy affects headline inflation by estimating a threshold cointegration model. The paper finds that asymmetric monetary shocks passing-through food prices exerts inflationary pressure on consumer prices, and is characterized by deep asymmetric movement, large degree of stickiness in adjusting downward, while exhibiting upward momentum in correcting food price fall. In addition, asymmetries were found in consumer price adjustment as food price shock transmits substantial inflationary pressure to consumer prices, while disinflationary effect originating from a fall in food price is inconsequential. The coefficients of adjustment were found to be …

Dynamic Effect Of Exchange Rate Gap Shocks On Stock Market Deepening: Evidence From Nigeria, Kareem Abidemi Arikewuyo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The study examines the exchange rate gap shock–stock market deepening nexus in Nigeria using the structural VAR-X (SVAR-X) technique for the period 1986Q1 to 2018Q4. Findings reveal that exchange rate gap shock has a negative but statistically not significant effect on stock market deepening in Nigeria. It was also found that exchange rate passed–through interest rate from second to thirteen quarter, and further through financial openness whose effect, like exchange rate gap, was negative. This implies that exchange rate gap is significantly and negatively related to interest rate and financial openness in Nigeria. It is therefore recommended that the monetary …

Modelling The Impact Of Government Expenditure On Economic Growth In Nigeria: The Moderating Effects Of Oil And Non-Oil Revenue, Victor U. Ijirshar, Gaius M. Asombo, Florence D. Bundepuun, Ashifa Tersugh, Ayila Ngutsav

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth and assesses the moderating effects of oil revenue and non-oil revenue in Nigeria from 1981 to 2021. The study uncovered short-term asymmetry in the government expenditure-economic growth nexus while the long-term relationship was symmetric. The study found that government expenditure is a significant determinant of economic growth in Nigeria and that oil and non-oil revenue influences the nexus between government expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria positively. The study recommends efficient management of oil revenue, directing investments during high revenue periods and ensuring fiscal sustainability. Government should also establish …

Improving The Efficiency Of Exponential Ratio-Type Estimator For Population Median: A Calibration Weight Adjustment Approach, Mathew J. Iseh, Kufre J. Bassey

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper modifies the Bahl and Tuteja exponential ratio-type estimator for population median under simple random and stratified sampling schemes using calibration weight adjustment technique with supplementary information to vary the stratum weights. The bias and mean square error of the modified estimator were obtained up to the second-order approximation, which satisfies the necessary conditions for efficiency. The findings show that the new estimator surpasses existing estimators in efficiency gain. This suggests the appropriateness of calibration weight modification in boosting the efficiency of a population parameter estimator under stratified random sampling especially where the population parameter of the auxiliary variable …

Disagreement In Market Index Options, Guilherme Salome, George Tauchen, Jia Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

We generate new evidence on disagreement among traders in the S&P 500 options market from high-frequency intraday price and volume data. Inference on disagreement is based on a model where investors observe public information but agree to disagree on its interpretation; disagreement among investors is captured by the volume–volatility elasticity. For options, there are two natural variables related to disagreement: moneyness and tenor, which we relate to disagreement about the distribution of the market index at different quantiles and times. The estimated volume–volatility elasticity equals unity for options near the money and close to expiration, which is consistent with the …

The Impact Of The "Whistle-To-Whistle" Ban On The Frequency And Placement Of Gambling Advertising On Uk Television, Ellen Mcgrane, Elizabeth Goyder, Rob Pryce, Matt Field

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Abstract

Introduction:

There are currently no legally enforced restrictions on the broadcast time of gambling advertising on UK television. In August 2019, the Industry Group for Responsible Gambling (IGRG) introduced a voluntary policy which limited advertising around live sports, creating a “safe” window of 5 minutes either side of a match, known as the “Whistle-to-Whistle” period. This policy intended to protect young and vulnerable people from the widespread exposure to gambling adverts on television during pre-watershed (9pm) live sports games.

Methods:

This study will employ panel data statistical models to explore the change in pre-watershed gambling advertising around live sports, …