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2017

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Articles 31 - 60 of 165

Full-Text Articles in Econometrics

Bubble Testing Under Deterministic Trends, Xiaohu Wang, Jun Yu Sep 2017

Bubble Testing Under Deterministic Trends, Xiaohu Wang, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops the asymptotic theory of the ordinary least squares estimator of the autoregressive (AR) coefficient in various AR models, when data is generated from trend-stationary models in different forms. It is shown that, depending on how the autoregression is specified, the commonly used right-tailed unit root tests may tend to reject the null hypothesis of unit root in favor of the explosive alternative. A new procedure to implement the right-tailed unit root tests is proposed. It is shown that when the data generating process is trend-stationary, the test statistics based on the proposed procedure cannot find evidence of …

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Non-Separable Models With High-Dimensional Data, Liangjun Su, Takuya Ura, Yichong Zhang Sep 2017

Non-Separable Models With High-Dimensional Data, Liangjun Su, Takuya Ura, Yichong Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies non-separable models with a continuous treatment when the dimension of the control variables is high and potentially larger than the effective sample size. We propose a three-step estimation procedure to estimate the average, quantile, and marginal treatment effects. In the first stage we estimate the conditional mean, distribution, and density objects by penalized local least squares, penalized local maximum likelihood estimation, and penalized conditional density estimation, respectively, where control variables are selected via a localized method of L1-penalization at each value of the continuous treatment. In the second stage we estimate the average and the marginal distribution …

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Domestic Liquidity Conditions And Monetary Policy In Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan Sep 2017

Domestic Liquidity Conditions And Monetary Policy In Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

Singapore has an unusual exchange rate-centered monetary policy framework that has served the economy well over the past decades. Monetary policy operations are carried out by the central bank through the management of the Singapore dollar against a currency basket. As is well recognized, such foreign exchange interventions do have an impact on domestic liquidity conditions. However, in the case of Singapore, this tends to be counteracted by the liquidity impact of public sector operations related to the fiscal position and the national pension scheme. The central bank takes into account the net liquidity impact these and other autonomous money …

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Adaptive Estimation Of Continuous-Time Regression Models Using High-Frequency Data, Jia Li, Viktor Todorov, George Tauchen Sep 2017

Adaptive Estimation Of Continuous-Time Regression Models Using High-Frequency Data, Jia Li, Viktor Todorov, George Tauchen

Research Collection School Of Economics

We derive the asymptotic efficiency bound for regular estimates of the slope coefficient in a linear continuous-time regression model for the continuous martingale parts of two Itô semimartingales observed on a fixed time interval with asymptotically shrinking mesh of the observation grid. We further construct an estimator from high-frequency data that achieves this efficiency bound and, indeed, is adaptive to the presence of infinite-dimensional nuisance components. The estimator is formed by taking optimal weighted average of local nonparametric volatility estimates that are constructed over blocks of high-frequency observations. The asymptotic efficiency bound is derived under a Markov assumption for the …

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The Attack And Defense Of Weakest Link Networks, Dan Kovenock, Brian Roberson, Roman M. Sheremeta Aug 2017

The Attack And Defense Of Weakest Link Networks, Dan Kovenock, Brian Roberson, Roman M. Sheremeta

ESI Working Papers

We experimentally test the qualitatively different equilibrium predictions of two theoretical models of attack and defense of a weakest-link network of targets. In such a network, the attacker’s objective is to successfully attack at least one target and the defender’s objective is to defend all targets. The models differ in how the conflict at each target is modeled — specifically, the lottery and auction contest success functions (CSFs). Consistent with equilibrium in the auction CSF model, attackers utilize a stochastic “guerrilla-warfare” strategy, which involves randomly attacking at most one target with a random level of force. Inconsistent with equilibrium in …

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Loss Aversion And The Quantity-Quality Tradeoff, Jared Rubin, Anya Samek, Roman M. Sheremeta Aug 2017

Loss Aversion And The Quantity-Quality Tradeoff, Jared Rubin, Anya Samek, Roman M. Sheremeta

ESI Working Papers

Firms face an optimization problem that requires a maximal quantity output given a quality constraint. But how do firms incentivize quantity and quality to meet these dual goals, and what role do behavioral factors, such as loss aversion, play in the tradeoffs workers face? We address these questions with a theoretical model and an experiment in which participants are paid for both quantity and quality of a real effort task. Consistent with basic economic theory, higher quality incentives encourage participants to shift their attention from quantity to quality. However, we also find that loss averse participants shift their attention from …

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Do Weapons Make Warfare? An Instrumental Variables Approach Towards Investigating The Relationship Between Small Arms Abundance, Civil Conflict Onset, And Civil Conflict Intensity, Gabriel S. Barrett Aug 2017

Do Weapons Make Warfare? An Instrumental Variables Approach Towards Investigating The Relationship Between Small Arms Abundance, Civil Conflict Onset, And Civil Conflict Intensity, Gabriel S. Barrett

Political Science Honors Projects

Scholars, journalists, and policymakers frequently attribute the intensity and onset of civil conflict to the abundance of small arms. However, the direction of causality has been difficult to assess due to a lack of data on the illicit small arms market and the plausibly endogenous relationship between the abundance of weapons and civil conflict. Using a new dataset of estimated small arms prices, I determine that a decrease in the price of small arms is significantly and negatively correlated with an increase in the intensity of conflict in the following year. I also determine that small arms prices increase in …

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Direct Effects Of Bundled Payments For Care Improvement Initiative: A County-Level Approach, Konstantinos Panitsas Mr Aug 2017

Direct Effects Of Bundled Payments For Care Improvement Initiative: A County-Level Approach, Konstantinos Panitsas Mr

Theses and Dissertations

Implementing a nonlinear, Difference-in-Differences estimation method, I quantify the positive impact bundled payment reforms have on vulnerable population groups living in U.S. counties where this cost reducing initiative was implemented. I find statistically significant effects of this health-care initiative on the elderly and the economically disadvantaged individuals.

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The Effect Of Paid Sick Leave On Physician Office-Based Visits, Korvin Vicente Aug 2017

The Effect Of Paid Sick Leave On Physician Office-Based Visits, Korvin Vicente

Theses and Dissertations

This paper uses a balanced sample of workers from cross-sections of the National Health Interview Survey to estimate the causal effects of paid sick leave on the medical care seeking behavior of individuals, as measured by physician office-based visits.

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Exchange In The Absence Of Legal Enforcement: Reputation And Multilateral Punishment Under Uncertainty, Aidin Hajikhameneh, Jared Rubin Aug 2017

Exchange In The Absence Of Legal Enforcement: Reputation And Multilateral Punishment Under Uncertainty, Aidin Hajikhameneh, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

Prinicpal-agent problems can reduce gains from exchange available in long distance trade. One solution to mitigate this problem is multilateral punishment, whereby groups of principals jointly punish cheating agents by giving them bad reputations. But how does such punishment work when there is uncertainty regarding whether an agent actually cheated or was just the victim of bad luck? And how might such uncertainty be mitigated—or exacerbated—by nonobservable, pro-social behavioral characteristics? We address these questions by designing a simple modified trust game with uncertainty and the capacity for principals to employ multilateral punishment. We find that a modest amount of uncertainty …

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How Product Innovation Can Affect Price Collusion, Andrew Smyth Aug 2017

How Product Innovation Can Affect Price Collusion, Andrew Smyth

ESI Working Papers

Price conspiracies appear endemic in many markets. This paper conjectures that low expected returns from product innovation can affect price collusion in certain markets. This conjecture is tested—and supported—by both archival and experimental data. In particular, average market prices in low innovation experiments are significantly greater than those in high innovation, but otherwise identical experiments, because price collusion is more successful in the low innovation experiments.

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Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- August 2017, Leonard Lardaro Aug 2017

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- August 2017, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

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Building Research Skills In The Macalester Economics Major, J. Peter Ferderer, Gary Krueger Aug 2017

Building Research Skills In The Macalester Economics Major, J. Peter Ferderer, Gary Krueger

Faculty Publications

Economics majors at Macalester College have won numerous awards for their research papers, and this success has helped them land jobs in finance, consulting, and the nonprofit sector, as well as gain admission to top graduate programs. This article describes how the Economics Department at Macalester promotes economic research among its students.

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A Cross-Sectional Exploration Of Household Financial Reactions And Homebuyer Awareness Of Registered Sex Offenders In A Rural, Suburban, And Urban County., John Charles Navarro Aug 2017

A Cross-Sectional Exploration Of Household Financial Reactions And Homebuyer Awareness Of Registered Sex Offenders In A Rural, Suburban, And Urban County., John Charles Navarro

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

As stigmatized persons, registered sex offenders betoken instability in communities. Depressed home sale values are associated with the presence of registered sex offenders even though the public is largely unaware of the presence of registered sex offenders. Using a spatial multilevel approach, the current study examines the role registered sex offenders influence sale values of homes sold in 2015 for three U.S. counties (rural, suburban, and urban) located in Illinois and Kentucky within the social disorganization framework. Homebuyers were surveyed to examine whether awareness of local registered sex offenders and the homebuyer’s community type operate as moderators between home selling …

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Essays On Non-Cognitive Skills, Child Labor And Working Conditions, Andres Felipe Cuadros Aug 2017

Essays On Non-Cognitive Skills, Child Labor And Working Conditions, Andres Felipe Cuadros

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation uses two institutional datasets for two developing countries and examines several dimensions of economic development. Chapter 1 and 2 use an IV approach to identify the impact of international remittances on the welfare of individuals left behind in Colombia. In Chapter 1, I provide evidence that remittances reduce child labor participation, and the amount of hours worked, a margin ignored by the literature so far. In addition, Chapter 2 explores the impact that this remittance income has over the working conditions for informal workers, a type of job characterized by long working hours and lack of social benefits. …

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The Optimal Defense Of Networks Of Targets, Dan Kovenock, Brian Roberson Aug 2017

The Optimal Defense Of Networks Of Targets, Dan Kovenock, Brian Roberson

ESI Working Papers

This paper examines a game-theoretic model of attack and defense of multiple networks of targets in which there exist intra-network strategic complementarities among targets. The defender’s objective is to successfully defend all of the networks and the attacker’s objective is to successfully attack at least one network of targets. Although there are multiple equilibria, we characterize correlation structures in the allocations of forces across targets that arise in all equilibria. For example, in all equilibria the attacker utilizes a stochastic ‘guerrilla warfare’ strategy in which a single random network is attacked.

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Structural Inference From Reduced Forms With Many Instruments, Peter C. B. Phillips, Wayne Yuan Gao Aug 2017

Structural Inference From Reduced Forms With Many Instruments, Peter C. B. Phillips, Wayne Yuan Gao

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops exact finite sample and asymptotic distributions for structural equation tests based on partially restricted reduced form estimates. Particular attention is given to models with large numbers of instruments, wherein the use of partially restricted reduced form estimates is shown to be especially advantageous in statistical testing even in cases of uniformly weak instruments. Comparisons are made with methods based on unrestricted reduced forms, and numerical computations showing finite sample performance of the tests are reported. Some new results are obtained on inequalities between noncentral chi-squared distributions with different degrees of freedom that assist in analytic power comparisons.

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Equilibrium Play In Voluntary Ultimatum Games: Beneficence Cannot Be Extorted, Vernon L. Smith, Bart J. Wilson Jul 2017

Equilibrium Play In Voluntary Ultimatum Games: Beneficence Cannot Be Extorted, Vernon L. Smith, Bart J. Wilson

ESI Working Papers

One robust result in experimental economics is the failure to observe equilibrium play in the ultimatum game. A heretofore unnoticed feature of the game is that neither player voluntarily chooses to play the game. Motivated by Adam Smith’s proposition that beneficence—like that of non‐ equilibrium play in the ultimatum game—cannot be extorted by force, we offer the responder the opportunity to opt out of the game for a mere $1 payoff for both players. We observe high rates of equilibrium play with highly unequal splits when responders choose to play such ultimatum games with both fixed and variable sums.

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War And Conflict In Economics: Theories, Applications, And Recent Trends, Erik O. Kimbrough, Kevin Laughren, Roman M. Sheremeta Jul 2017

War And Conflict In Economics: Theories, Applications, And Recent Trends, Erik O. Kimbrough, Kevin Laughren, Roman M. Sheremeta

ESI Working Papers

We review the main economic models of war and conflict. These models vary in details, but their implications are qualitatively consistent, highlighting key commonalities across a variety of conflict settings. Recent empirical literature, employing both laboratory and field data, in many cases confirms the basic implications of conflict theory. However, this literature also presents important challenges to the way economists traditionally model conflict. We finish our review by suggesting ways to address these challenges.

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Spatial And Temporal Intricacies Of Natural Resource Use: Studies In Water, Forests, And Hydrocarbons, Dadhi Adhikari Jul 2017

Spatial And Temporal Intricacies Of Natural Resource Use: Studies In Water, Forests, And Hydrocarbons, Dadhi Adhikari

Economics ETDs

This dissertation examines spatial and temporal impacts of natural resource use. The second chapter integrates hydrological and economic systems to examine the impact of drought on these two systems and explores the spatial impact of policies aimed to mitigate the drought impact. The systems dynamics model developed for this chapter simultaneously considers the physical hydrology in the Middle Rio Grande water basin in New Mexico, the engineered water management system, and a behavioral model of residential water demand for three cities: Albuquerque, Rio Rancho, and Santa Fe, New Mexico. The simulation results showed that droughts that occur in later periods, …

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Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- July 2017, Leonard Lardaro Jul 2017

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- July 2017, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

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Bondholder Reorganization Of Systemically Important Financial Institutions, Steven Gjerstad Jun 2017

Bondholder Reorganization Of Systemically Important Financial Institutions, Steven Gjerstad

ESI Working Papers

This paper describes a resolution process for faltering financial firms that quickly allocates losses to bondholders and transfers ownership of the firm to them. This process overcomes the most serious flaws in resolution plans submitted by banks under Dodd-Frank Title I and in the FDIC receivership procedure in Dodd-Frank Title II by restoring the balance sheet of a failing financial institution and immediately replacing the management and board of directors who allowed its demise. In almost all bank failures, this process would eliminate the need for government involvement beyond court certification of the reorganization. The procedure overcomes the serious incentive …

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Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- June 2017, Leonard Lardaro Jun 2017

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- June 2017, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

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Quantum Ideas In Economics Beyond Quantum Econometrics, Vladik Kreinovich, Hung T. Nguyen, Songsak Sriboonchitta Jun 2017

Quantum Ideas In Economics Beyond Quantum Econometrics, Vladik Kreinovich, Hung T. Nguyen, Songsak Sriboonchitta

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

It is known that computational methods developed for solving equations of quantum physics can be successfully applied to solve economic problems; there is a whole related research area called quantum econometrics. Current quantum econometrics techniques are based on a purely mathematical similarity between the corresponding equations, without any attempt to relate the underlying ideas. We believe that the fact that quantum equations can be successfully applied in economics indicates that there is a deeper relation between these areas, beyond a mathematical similarity. In this paper, we show that there is indeed a deep relation between the main ideas of …

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Macroeconomic Instability Index And Threshold For The Nigerian Economy, B. A. G. Amoo, J. K. Achua, N. P. Audu, B. Hamma Jun 2017

Macroeconomic Instability Index And Threshold For The Nigerian Economy, B. A. G. Amoo, J. K. Achua, N. P. Audu, B. Hamma

Economic and Financial Review

The paper employed statistical algorithms, factor analysis and threshold autoregressive models to address the gaps in management of macroeconomic instability in Nigeria. Using data spanning 2010q1 to 2017q2, the findings showed that the values of macroeconomic instability index (MII) fluctuated between 0.316 and 0.609, with a threshold of 0.461. This showed an inverse relationship between macroeconomic instability and economic growth. This framework could serve as a mechanism to gauge early warning signal of instability in Nigeria.

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Unofficial Dollarisation And Monetary Policy In Nigeria, Y. Adamu Jun 2017

Unofficial Dollarisation And Monetary Policy In Nigeria, Y. Adamu

Economic and Financial Review

This paper examined the impact of dollarisation on monetary policy in Nigeria, using monthly data spanning 2002 to 2016. The paper adopted the conventional IMF proxy for dollarisation and traced its reactions to changing monetary policy stance. Using the vector autoregression (VAR) model and interbank rate as an indicator of monetary policy stance, the results showed that the size of dollarisation could influence the outcome of monetary policy, though the impact was small. This was evident from the output equations, that inflation did not respond in the first month and responded negatively in the second month. However, from the third …

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Indirect Inference In Spatial Autoregression, Maria Kyriacou, Peter C. B. Phillips, Francesca Rossi Jun 2017

Indirect Inference In Spatial Autoregression, Maria Kyriacou, Peter C. B. Phillips, Francesca Rossi

Research Collection School Of Economics

Ordinary least-squares (OLS) is well known to produce an inconsistent estimator of the spatial parameter in pure spatial autoregression (SAR). In this paper, we explore the potential of indirect inference to correct the inconsistency of OLS. Under broad conditions, it is shown that indirect inference (II) based on OLS produces consistent and asymptotically normal estimates in pure SAR regression. The II estimator used here is robust to departures from normal disturbances and is computationally straightforward compared with quasi-maximum likelihood (QML). Monte Carlo experiments based on various specifications of the weight matrix show that: (a) the II estimator displays little bias …

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Indirect Inference In Spatial Autoregression, Maria Kyriacou, Peter C. B. Phillips, Francesca Rossi Jun 2017

Indirect Inference In Spatial Autoregression, Maria Kyriacou, Peter C. B. Phillips, Francesca Rossi

Research Collection School Of Economics

Ordinary least-squares (OLS) is well known to produce an inconsistent estimator of the spatial parameter in pure spatial autoregression (SAR). In this paper, we explore the potential of indirect inference to correct the inconsistency of OLS. Under broad conditions, it is shown that indirect inference (II) based on OLS produces consistent and asymptotically normal estimates in pure SAR regression. The II estimator used here is robust to departures from normal disturbances and is computationally straightforward compared with quasi-maximum likelihood (QML). Monte Carlo experiments based on various specifications of the weight matrix show that: (a) the II estimator displays little bias …

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Considerations For Mexican Immigration Policy Reform: How Motivations To Migrate Align With U.S. And Mexican Macroeconomic Conditions, Alix Naugler May 2017

Considerations For Mexican Immigration Policy Reform: How Motivations To Migrate Align With U.S. And Mexican Macroeconomic Conditions, Alix Naugler

Undergraduate Honors Theses

The nationalistic rhetoric adopted by the newly-elected president’s administration along with the public’s climaxing anti-immigrant hysteria has recently forced Mexican immigration intervention to the top of the U.S. agenda. Misconceptions regarding Mexicans’ role in stealing jobs, threatening cultural and ethnic traditions, and straining public welfare, educational, and healthcare resources have spurred a fear among the American people. This politically-fabricated “schizophrenia” has ceased the political and economic collaboration between the two nations and has resulted in the unilateral militarization of the U.S.-Mexico border. In this evaluation of the U.S. government’s immigration policies, the proposed economic theories related to Mexicans’ motivations in …

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The Effect Of Integration: A Study On The Impact Of Diversity On Economic Indicators, Luke H. Schleier May 2017

The Effect Of Integration: A Study On The Impact Of Diversity On Economic Indicators, Luke H. Schleier

Undergraduate Honors Theses

This paper examines the effect of diversity, measured by the dissimilarity index, on the economic strength of an area. Economic strength is measured using five economic indicators: median home value, median income, median gross rent, percentage of people with health insurance, and firms per capita. The work aims to show that there is a positive economic impact due to integrating and creating communities that are more diverse. Previous work shows there is a positive impact of diversity on economic indicators such as wages, rents, and production but previous studies do not look at the effect on these economic indicators. This …

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