Econometrics Commons^™

Unit Roots In Life: A Graduate Student Story, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

What follows is a graduate student story. It draws on the first part of the speech I gave that evening at the NZESG conference dinner. It mixes personal reflections with recollections of the extraordinary New Zealanders who shaped my thinking as a graduate student and beginning researcher-people who have had an enduring impact on my work and career as an econometrician. The story traces out these human initial conditions and unit roots that figure in my early life of teaching and research.

Econometric Analysis Of Continuous Time Models: A Survey Of Peter Phillips' Work And Some New Results, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Econometric analysis of continuous time models has drawn the attention of Peter Phillips for 40 years, resulting in many important publications by him. In these publications he has dealt with a wide range of continuous time models and the associated econometric problems. He has investigated problems from univariate equations to systems of equations, from asymptotic theory to finite sample issues, from parametric models to nonparametric models, from identification problems to estimation and inference problems, from stationary models to nonstationary and nearly nonstationary models. This paper provides an overview of Peter Phillips' contributions in the continuous time econometrics literature. We review …

Robustify Financial Time Series Forecasting With Bagging, Sainan Jin, Liangjun Su, Aman Ullah

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we propose a revised version of (bagging) bootstrap aggregating as a forecast combination method for the out-of-sample forecasts in time series models. The revised version explicitly takes into account the dependence in time series data and can be used to justify the validity of bagging in the reduction of mean squared forecast error when compared with the unbagged forecasts. Monte Carlo simulations show that the new method works quite well and outperforms the traditional one-step-ahead linear forecast as well as the nonparametric forecast in general, especially when the in-sample estimation period is small. We also find that …

Specification Test For Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects, Liangjun Su, Sainan Jin, Yonghui Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we propose a consistent nonparametric test for linearity in a large dimensional panel data model with interactive fixed effects. Both lagged dependent variables and conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form are allowed in the model. We estimate the model under the null hypothesis of linearity to obtain the restricted residuals which are then used to construct the test statistic. We show that after being appropriately centered and standardized, the test statistic is asymptotically normally distributed under both the null hypothesis and a sequence of Pitman local alternatives by using the concept of conditional strong mixing that was recently …

Minimum Investment Requirements, Financial Market Globalization, And Symmetry Breaking, Haiping Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We incorporate wealth heterogeneity and the minimum investment requirements in the model of Matsuyama (2004, Econometrica) and provide a complete characterization of symmetry breaking. In particular, we identify the extensive margin of investment as a key channel through which the interest rate may respond positively to capital accumulation, or equivalently, the interest rate can be higher in the rich than in the poor countries. Then, financial market globalization may lead to “uphill” capital flows from the poor to the rich countries, which widens the initial cross-country income gap and leads to income divergence among inherently identical countries, a phenomenon that …

Shrinkage Estimation Of Regression Models With Multiple Structural Changes, Junhui Qian, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we consider the problem of determining the number of structural changes in multiple linear regression models via group fused Lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator). We show that with probability tending to one our method can correctly determine the unknown number of breaks and the estimated break dates are sufficiently close to the true break dates. We obtain estimates of the regression coefficients via post Lasso and establish the asymptotic distributions of the estimates of both break ratios and regression coefficients. We also propose and validate a data-driven method to determine the tuning parameter. Monte Carlo …

Jackknife Model Averaging For Quantile Regressions, Xun Lu, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we consider the problem of frequentist model averaging for quantile regression (QR) when all the M models under investigation are potentially misspecified and the number of parameters in some or all models is diverging with the sample size n. To allow for the dependence between the error terms and the regressors in the QR models, we propose a jackknife model averaging (JMA) estimator which selects the weights by minimizing a leave-one-out cross-validation criterion function and demonstrate that the jackknife selected weight vector is asymptotically optimal in terms of minimizing the out-of-sample final prediction error among the given …

A Combined Approach To The Inference Of Conditional Factor Models, Yan Li, Liangjun Su, Yuewu Xu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops a new methodology for estimating and testing conditional factor models in finance. We propose a two-stage procedure that naturally unifies the two existing approaches in the finance literature -- the parametric approach and the nonparametric approach. Our combined approach possesses important advantages over both methods. Using our two-stage combined estimator, we derive new test statistics for investigating key hypotheses in the context of conditional factor models. Our tests can be performed on a single asset or jointly across multiple assets. We further propose a novel test to directly check whether the parametric model used in our first …

A Flexible And Automated Likelihood Based Framework For Inference In Stochastic Volatility Models, Hans J. Skaug, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Laplace approximation is used to perform maximum likelihood estimation of univariate and multivariate stochastic volatility (SV) models. It is shown that the implementation of the Laplace approximation is greatly simplified by the use of a numerical technique known as automatic differentiation (AD). Several algorithms are proposed and compared with some existing maximum likelihood methods using both simulated data and actual data. It is found that the new methods match the statistical efficiency of the existing methods while significantly reducing the coding effort. Also proposed are simple methods for obtaining the filtered, smoothed and predictive values for the latent variable. …

Nonlinearity Induced Weak Instrumentation, Ioannis Kasparis, Peter C. B. Phillips, Tassos Magdalinos

Research Collection School Of Economics

In regressions involving integrable functions we examine the limit properties of instrumental variable (IV) estimators that utilise integrable transformations of lagged regressors as instruments. The regressors can be either I(0) or nearly integrated (NI) processes. We show that this kind of nonlinearity in the regression function can significantly affect the relevance of the instruments. In particular, such instruments become weak when the signal of the regressor is strong, as it is in the NI case. Instruments based on integrable functions of lagged NI regressors display long range dependence and so remain relevant even at long lags, continuing to contribute to …

Assessing Market Failures In Export Pioneering Activities: A Structural Estimation Approach, Shang-Jin Wei, Ziru Wei, Jianhuan Xu

Research Collection School Of Economics

The paper provides a first structural-estimation-based assessment of an influential hypothesis that export pioneers are too few relative to social optimum due to knowledge spillover in new market explorations. Such market failure requires two inequalities to hold simultaneously: the discovery cost is greater than any individual firm’s expected profit but Smaller than the sum of all potential exporters’ expected profits. Neither has to hold in the data. We estimate the structural parameters based on the customs data of Chinese electronics exports. While we find positive discover cost and spillovers, "missing pioneers" are nonetheless a low probability event.

The Impact On Consumer Behavior Of Energy Demand Side Management Programs Measurement Techniques And Methods, Jeffrey L. Pursley

College of Business: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Much effort has gone into measuring the impact of Demand Side Management (DSM) programs on energy usage, particularly in regards to electric usage. However, there are potential biases in such measurements. This paper explores one of these potential biases, the rebound effect. This effect is caused by changes in consumer behavior as a result of DSM programs. The work of Steven Braithwaite and Douglas Caves provide the starting point for this analysis, although the rebound effect is referenced in many other works in this field.

In an effort the estimate this effect, data from the Nebraska Energy Office’s DSM programs …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- July 2014, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

From Mean And Median Income To The Most Adequate Way Of Taking Inequality Into Account, Vladik Kreinovich, Hung T. Nguyen, Rujira Ouncharoen

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

How can we compare the incomes of two different countries or regions? At first glance, it is sufficient to compare the mean incomes, but this is known to be not a very adequate comparison: according to this criterion, a very poor country with a few super-rich people may appear to be in good economic shape. A more adequate description of economy is the median income. However, the median is also not always fully adequate: e.g., raising the income of very poor people clearly improves the overall economy but does not change the median. In this paper, we use known techniques …

Test Of Hypotheses In A Time Trend Panel Data Model With Serially Correlated Error Component Disturbances, Chihwa Kao, Badi H. Baltagi, Long Liu

Center for Policy Research

This paper studies test of hypotheses for the slope parameter in a linear time trend panel data model with serially correlated error component disturbances. We propose a test statistic that uses a bias corrected estimator of the serial correlation parameter. The proposed test statistic which is based on the corresponding fixed effects feasible generalized least squares (FE-FGLS) estimator of the slope parameter has the standard normal limiting distribution which is valid whether the remainder error is I(0) or I(1). This performs well in Monte Carlo experiments and is recommended.

Bayesian Analysis Of Bubbles In Asset Prices, Andras Fulop, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

We develop a new asset price model where the dynamic structure of the asset price, after the fundamental value is removed, is subject to two different regimes. One regime reflects the normal period where the asset price divided by the dividend is assumed to follow a mean-reverting process around a stochastic long run mean. This latter is allowed to account for possible smooth structural change. The second regime reflects the bubble period with explosive behavior. Stochastic switches between two regimes and non-constant probabilities of exit from the bubble regime are both allowed. A Bayesian learning approach is employed to jointly …

The Business Of Coupons-Do Coupons Lead To Repeat Purchases?, Margaret P. Ross

Pursuit - The Journal of Undergraduate Research at The University of Tennessee

In recent years, couponing has emerged as a pop culture phenomenon. Businesses of all types are taking advantage of this resource by revamping their out-dated programs and turning them into something fresh to excite customers. Many questions remain unanswered concerning the viability, profitability, and usefulness of coupons. This study is an analysis of the effectiveness of coupons in enticing return purchases in the soft-drink category and the effectiveness of price discriminating at this grocery store chain. The dataset is comprised of household level grocery store transactions compiled by dunnhumby USA for 2,500 households over a period of two years. An …

Do Expected Marginal Revenue Products For National Hockey League Players Equal Their Price In Daily Fantasy Games?, Benjamin Goldman

Award Winning Economics Papers

The equality between wages and marginal revenue products is a backbone of competitive labor markets. This study will seek to test the congruity between the two in the market for players in daily fantasy hockey games. Any observed and statistically significant incongruity would lead to the conclusion that an individual can earn long run profit playing daily fantasy games. Both fixed effects and pooled regressions are employed to isolate inequalities between prices and expected marginal revenue products for players in daily fantasy hockey games. Any deviation of such could potentially be explained by utility maximizing gamblers or incomplete information. Robust …

How Portable Is Level-0 Behavior? A Test Of Level-K Theory In Games With Non-Neutral Frames, Shaun Hargreaves Heap, David Rojo Arjona, Robert Sugden

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

We test the portability of level‐0 assumptions in level‐k theory in an experimental investigation of behavior in Coordination, Discoordination, and Hide and Seek games with common, non‐neutral frames. Assuming that level‐0 behavior depends only on the frame, we derive hypotheses that are independent of prior assumptions about salience. Those hypotheses are not confirmed. Our findings contrast with previous research which has fitted parameterized level‐k models to Hide and Seek data. We show that, as a criterion of successful explanation, the existence of a plausible model that replicates the main patterns in these data has a high probability of …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- June 2014, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Do Weather Fluctuations Cause People To Seek Information About Climate Change?, Corey Lang

Environmental and Natural Resource Economics Faculty Publications

Learning about the causes and consequences of climate change can be an important avenue for supporting mitigation policy and efficient adaptation. This paper uses internet search activity data, a distinctly revealed preference approach, to examine if local weather fluctuations cause people to seek information about climate change. The results suggest that weather fluctuations do have an effect on climate change related search behavior, however not always in ways that are consistent with the projected impacts of climate change. While search activity increases with extreme heat in summer and extended periods of no rainfall and declines in extreme cold in winter, …

Three Essays On Nonstationary Time Series Analysis, Ye Chen

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Financial and macroeconomic time series data are often nonstationary. My dissertation consists of three essays concerning time series models with nonstationarity. Chapter 1 develops a new jackknife estimator for nonstationary autoregressive model. The remaining two chapters explore the restricted maximum likelihood (REML hereafter) estimation and the restricted maximum likelihood based likelihood ratio test (RLRT hereafter) in predictive regression. Chapter 1 proposes an improved jackknife estimator of the persistence parameter that works for both the discrete time unit root model and the continuous time unit root model. Maximum likelihood estimation of the persistence parameter in the discrete time unit root model …

Specification Sensitivity In Right‐Tailed Unit Root Testing For Explosive Behaviour, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article aims to provide some empirical guidelines for the practical implementation of right-tailed unit root tests, focusing on the recursive right-tailed ADF test of Phillips et al. (2011b). We analyze and compare the limit theory of the recursive test under different hypotheses and model specifications. The size and power properties of the test under various scenarios are examined and some recommendations for empirical practice are given. Some new results on the consistent estimation of localizing drift exponents are obtained, which are useful in assessing model specification. Empirical applications to stock markets illustrate these specification issues and reveal their practical …

Deviance Information Criterion For Comparing Var Models, Tao Zeng, Yong Li, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Vector Autoregression (VAR) has been a standard empirical tool used in macroeconomics and finance. In this paper we discuss how to compare alternative VAR models after they are estimated by Bayesian MCMC methods. In particular we apply a robust version of deviance information criterion (RDIC) recently developed in Li et al. (2014b) to determine the best candidate model. RDIC is a better information criterion than the widely used deviance information criterion (DIC) when latent variables are involved in candidate models. Empirical analysis using US data shows that the optimal model selected by RDIC can be different from that by DIC.

A Bayesian Chi-Squared Test For Hypothesis Testing, Yong Li, Xiao-Bin Liu, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A new Bayesian test statistic is proposed to test a point null hypothesis based on of regular conditions and follows a chi-squared distribution when the null hypothesis is correct. The new statistic has several important advantages that make it appeal in practical applications. First, it is well-defined under improper prior distributions. Second, it avoids Jeffrey-Lindley’s paradox. Third, it is relatively easy to compute, even for models with latent variables. Finally, it is pivotal and its threshold value can be easily obtained from the asymptotic chi-squared distribution. The method is illustrated using some real examples in economics and finance.

Adaptive Nonparametric Regression With Conditional Heteroskedasticity, Sainan Jin, Liangjun Su, Zhijie Xiao

Research Collection School Of Economics

Vector Autoregression (VAR) has been a standard empirical tool used in macroeconomics and finance. In this paper we discuss how to compare alternative VAR models after they are estimated by Bayesian MCMC methods. In particular we apply a robust version of deviance information criterion (RDIC) recently developed in Li et al. (2014b) to determine the best candidate model. RDIC is a better information criterion than the widely used deviance information criterion (DIC) when latent variables are involved in candidate models. Empirical analysis using US data shows that the optimal model selected by RDIC can be different from that by DIC.

Self-Exciting Jumps, Learning, And Asset Pricing Implications, Andras Fulop, Junye Li, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

The paper proposes a self-exciting asset pricing model that takes into account cojumps between prices and volatility and self-exciting jump clustering. We employ a dence of self-exciting jump clustering since the 1987 market crash, and its importance Bayesian learning approach to implement real time sequential analysis. We find evidence of self-exciting jump clustering since the 1987 market crash, and its importance becomes more obvious at the onset of the 2008 global financial crisis. It is found that learning affects the tail behaviors of the return distributions and has important implications for risk management, volatility forecasting and option pricing.

Extremal Quantile Regressions For Selection Models And The Black White Wage Gap, Xavier D'Haultfoeuille, Arnaud Maurel, Yichong Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider the estimation of a semiparametric location-scale model subject to endogenous selection, in the absence of an instrument or a large support regressor. Identification relies on the independence between the covariates and selection, for arbitrarily large values of the outcome. In this context, we propose a simple estimator, which combines extremal quantile regressions with minimum distance. We establish the asymptotic normality of this estimator by extending previous results on extremal quantile regressions to allow for selection. Finally, we apply our method to estimate the black-white wage gap among males from the NLSY79 and NLSY97. We find that premarket factors …

Market Frictions And The Efficiency Of Capital Allocation, William J. Hippler Iii

LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

The following dissertation contains two unique empirical studies that contribute to the overall literature in the field of Financial Economics in the areas of mutual fund investing and financial intermediation and regulation. The first Chapter, entitled “The Impact of Macroeconomic Stress on the U.S. Financial Sector”, examines the relative impact of macroeconomic stress on financial and non-financial U.S. firms. Empirical results show that macroeconomic shocks appear to have a larger impact on financial firms. Additionally, the sensitivity of financial firms to macroeconomic events can be traced to the influence of non-depository institutions, or “shadow banks”, like finance and investment companies, …

Can Community Water Projects Combat Child Diarrhea? Results From The Solomon Islands, Thomas G. Sackman

Master's Theses

There is a vast amount of existing literature that has empirically scrutinized whether or not community water projects have the ability to mitigate diarrheal disease. A strong and persistent belief thinks that community water projects do have the means, however, over the decades empirical work commonly finds this to simply not be true. This study expands the research question to the Solomon Islands. The research tests the hypothesis using a differences-in-differences identification strategy by utilizing the government’s staggered timing rollout of community water subprojects with whether or not a village received a community water subproject to test for a program …