Econometrics Commons^™

Need Singapore Fear Floating? A Dsge-Var Approach, Hwee Kwan Chow, Paul D. Mcnelis

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper uses a DSGE-VAR model to examine the managed exchange-rate system at work in Singapore and asks if the country has any reason to fear floating the exchange rate with a Taylor rule inflation-targeting mechanism that uses the short term interest rate instead of the exchange rate as the benchmark monetary policy instrument. Our simulation results show that the use of a more flexible exchange rate system will reduce volatility in inflation and investment but consumption volatility will increase. Overall, there are neither signi…cant welfare gains or losses in the regime shift. Given the highly open and trade …

Clearing House And Counterparty Default Risk In Derivatives Market, Poonam Mehra

Poonam Singh Mehra

No abstract provided.

Institutional Structure And Decision Making In Sudan, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

The study here presented reviews the institutional structure of the Sudanese government. Truly, though it is stigmatized as totalitarian, the structure is phenotypically perfect. Ministry of Ministries council is supposed to cater for analyzing data concerning ministries performance, drawing strategic planning, executing them through ministries and conduct the follow-ups. Department of decision-making was created and packages for data collection and analyses were improvised. However, all these structures seem skeletal as the final decisions structurally seem to be lost between the Presidency Institution and the executive institutions. An introduced flowing chart indicates that the cycle of all decisions end up at …

The International Society And The Sudanese National Disintegration, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

The political crisis of Sudan is amplified everyday with the expansion of civil conflict from Darfur to Southern Kordofan state. The inevitable secession of Southern Sudan is threatened by the chronic crisis of Abyei pocket between the north and the south that saw open war between the two opponents; the Sudanese army and Popular Liberation of Sudan. Nevertheless, the Attorney General of the International Criminal Court, Ocambo vocalizes more concerns of humanitarian sufferings and war crimes that he claims to be continuing despite of peaceful negotiations. Such situation seems irrational with the de facto state of war that currently prevails …

The Impact Of Tribal Structure On The Economic Parameters And Conflicts Between North And South Sudan, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

The crisis of Greater Darfur Region of Sudan extends to other regions as the South Sudan prepares for secession next July 2011. In the past eight years Sudan's crisis in Darfur was amplified by global news media all over the world. Civil conflict erupted, developed into armed rebellions and open uncontrolled war that enveloped the whole region. The current inflamed undecided and unmarked future borders between the south and north are also facing growing tensions. In this current paper we present some information on what we see as the seeds of conflicts with complicated tribal structures in both sides and …

Spatial Econometrics And Spillover Effects In Panel Data: Evidence From The Swiss Cantons' Expenditure, Anjeza Kadilli

Anjeza Kadilli

No abstract provided.

Fend For Sudan Unity, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Sudan is unified as a country by many bonds that are also reasons for it disintegration. From the year 2005 where Nivasha Comprehensive Peace Agreement between the North and South parts, to 2011 the efforts of dividing the country were evident. From 2005, many analysts, tried to warn of the coming consequences of the Southern part secession. There were calls for improvements of the current regime's totalitarianism, open the doors for democracy, sharing people in power and decision making and amending human standards and freedom. However, all calls fell on deaf ears. The Darfur crisis accelerated and the regime clutch …

International Trade, Structural Deformations And Hegemony In Islamic And Arabic Countries, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed, Dr. Mohamed A. Osman

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Contemporary world economic situation seems gloomy with the shadows of recession in many big economies. There attempts to rectify that situation with domestic restructuring and improvements in social parameters. However, it is imperative that holistic approaches should be reviewed whereas part of them are helping developing economies to improve productivity and expand their exports and imports. The books reviews issues of international trade as presented in theories and de facto applications. Historical backgrounds are analyzed to emphasize their impacts on the present situations. Within the parameters discussed are crusades and ensuing colonization. All these foot prints are still engraved in …

State Institutionalization, Governance And Decision Making In Sudan, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

The study here presented reviews the institutional structure of the Sudanese government. Truly, though it is stigmatized as totalitarian, the structure is phenotypically perfect. Ministry of Ministries council is supposed to cater for analyzing data concerning ministries performance, drawing strategic planning, executing them through ministries and conduct the follow-ups. Department of decision-making was created and packages for data collection and analyses were improvised. However, all these structures seem skeletal as the final decisions structurally seem to be lost between the Presidency Institution and the executive institutions. An introduced flowing chart indicates that the cycle of all decisions end up at …

Banks' Reserves Restrictions And Macroeconomic Parameters Of Sudanese Economy (2007-2009), Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

The paper analyzes the impacts of Islamic and conventional Banks reserves' restrictions in Sudan. Comprehensively, those restrictions are necessary for health banks, performance and the viability of the macroeconomic performance in any country. The selected period of the analysis (2007-2009) is vital to study impacts of the Global Financial Crisis on the Sudanese economy. The paper introduces available data on banks institutions, macroeconomic policies and the central Bank of Sudan considering its part on controlling money supply and demand besides drawing policies for banks behaviors. It is conceivable from my conclusions here that there are conflicts between conventional and Islamic …

Estimating The Garch Diffusion: Simulated Maximum Likelihood In Continuous Time, Tore Selland Kleppe, Jun Yu, Hans J. Skaug

Research Collection School Of Economics

A new algorithm is developed to provide a simulated maximum likelihood estimation of the GARCH diffusion model of Nelson (1990) based on return data only. The method combines two accurate approximation procedures, namely, the polynomial expansion of Ait-Sahalia (2008) to approximate the transition probability density of return and volatility, and the Efficient Importance Sampler (EIS) of Richard and Zhang (2007) to integrate out the volatility. The first and second order terms in the polynomial expansion are used to generate a base-line importance density for an EIS algorithm. The higher order terms are included when evaluating the importance weights. Monte Carlo …

Measurement And High Finance, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu, Eric Ghysels

Research Collection School Of Economics

Turbulence in the world of banking and finance over the last two years has riveted media attention on the financial industry, exposing practices, products and risks in the industry to widespread public scrutiny. Questions continue to be asked about the management and regulation of an industry whose performance is now seen to affect the world’s financial health and its prospects as much as it does national savings and individual retirement funds.

Economic Crisis And External Trade In Sudan, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Nowadays, Sudan suffers severe financial crisis with the eminent demise of 75% of its oil revenues that represented over 90% of its foreign currency after the secession of its Southern part after a constitutional referendum. The compensatory revenues generating economic sectors are not able in the short, medium or runs to function due to the lack/diminished infrastructures. Hard currency exchange rates have soured against the domestic one and inflation sky-rocketed with severe recession grasping the economic cycle in the country which assess logic assumptions of stagflation. Reforming Sudan's foreign trade sector is essential though it will not replace oil revenues …

Italian Class Actions Eight Months In: The Driving Forces, Massimiliano De Santis, Renzo Comolli, Francesco Lo Passo

Massimiliano De Santis

No abstract provided.

Factors Effecting Job Satisfaction Of Employees In Pakistani Banking Sector, Ahmed Imran Hunjra, Muhammad Irfan Chani, Sher Aslam, Muhammad Azam, Kashif -Ur- Rehman

Muhammad Irfan Chani

Effect Of Monetary Incentives On Institutional Deliveries: Evidence From The Janani Suraksha Yojna In India, Ambrish A. Dongre

Ambrish A Dongre

This paper is the fi#12;rst attempt to rigorously evaluate the short term e#11;ffects of the `Janani Suraksha Yojna' (Safe Motherhood Scheme), a nationwide conditional cash transfer program in India, launched in April 2005. Under the scheme, a woman delivering her child in a medical facility is provided monetary rewards.

My diff#11;erence-in-di#11;fference results indicate that in the initial one and a half years of its operation, the scheme did not have any eff#11;ect on the disparity between the targeted and non- targeted states. In fact, the gap widened in this period, albeit marginally. But beginning from 2007, the targeted states have …

The Janjaweed, The Armed Movements And The Political Disintegration Of Sudan, Issam A.W. Mohamed Professor

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

The present paper is part of unpublished book divided into three interrelated manuscripts that analyze the collapse of the Sudan. The current paper concludes that the rebellion by certain in Darfur region has triggered a further a counteraction by other tribes of Arab descendants. The counter-actors were recruited by an unprecedented tyrannical regime to submit the rebels but succeeded only in genocide and the turning over the regime and started their own rebellion. That resulted in an intricate situation carrying all symptoms of chaos. Truly, the regime maintained its existence but with continuously deteriorating life condition in Darfur region. The …

Impacts Of Islamic And Commercial Banks' Reserves Restrictions On Macroeconomic Parameters Of Sudan (2007-2009), Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

The paper analyzes the impacts of Islamic and conventional Banks reserves' restrictions in Sudan. Comprehensively, those restrictions are necessary for health banks, performance and the viability of the macroeconomic performance in any country. The selected period of the analysis (2007-2009) is vital to study impacts of the Global Financial Crisis on the Sudanese economy. The paper introduces available data on banks institutions, macroeconomic policies and the central Bank of Sudan considering its part on controlling money supply and demand besides drawing policies for banks behaviors. It is conceivable from my conclusions here that there are conflicts between conventional and Islamic …

Economics Of Securities Markets: Lecture 1, Poonam Mehra

Poonam Singh Mehra

No abstract provided.

Macroeconomic Effects Of Foreign Currency Exchange Rates On Savings Attitudes In Sudan, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

The impacts of fluctuations of exchange rates of foreign hard currencies are well documented in economics literature. There are measures taken over by countries to absorb their impacts on income, employment and national economies ability to function and produce. However, distortions are observed in underdeveloped and developing countries. Sudan is among those where impacts of fluctuations in exchange rates versus national currencies are strongly observed and felt on its economy. In the past three decades they represented the highest effects on real money's value, had macroeconomic impacts, affect the prices of productive inputs, produced commodities and the economy's performance. The …

Impacts Of Southern Sudan Secession: Case Study Of Hawazma Nomads Of Kordofan, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Tribal interactions between groups of Southern Kordofan and the Southern provinces of Bahr al Ghazal and Upper Nile are wide and old. The old coexistence habits that previously dominated a one country structure were torn down by a de facto status secession by the Southern region of Sudan. The South Kordofan represents a region where tribal groups live in. Now it represents a region of future candidate for war. The decision of secession of Southern Sudan for independence involved delayed drawing borders and arguments of conflicts on specific regions bordering the two parts of Sudan. In South Kordofan many tribes …

The 1905 Einstein Equation In A General Mathematical Analysis Model Of Quasars, Byron E. Bell

Byron E. Bell

Voluntary Return In The Comprehensive Peace Agreement Of Northern And Southern Sudan, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

The date of South secession is coming soon at the 9th July 2011. However, there is the problem of people from the south who live in the north. Some of them where behaving as natural citezens and had jobs or education or even lived for decades and centuries in the north. Others were internally displaced people, but both are compelled to return to their homes in the south as the Comprehensive Peace Agreement signed by the twp parties, North and South have stressed on. That created inevitable another displacement or uprooting for them and definitely another human tragedy. This paper …

Impacts Of Banks' Reserves Restrictions On Macroeconomic Parameters Of Sudan (2007-2009), Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

The paper analyzes the impacts of Islamic and conventional Banks reserves' restrictions in Sudan. Comprehensively, those restrictions are necessary for health banks, performance and the viability of the macroeconomic performance in any country. The selected period of the analysis (2007-2009) is vital to study impacts of the Global Financial Crisis on the Sudanese economy. The paper introduces available data on banks institutions, macroeconomic policies and the central Bank of Sudan considering its part on controlling money supply and demand besides drawing policies for banks behaviors. It is conceivable from my conclusions here that there are conflicts between conventional and Islamic …

A New Stock Index To Better Predict The United States' Real Gdp, William Nette

Honors Projects in Finance

The relationship between the United States’ real GDP and the overall stock market has been acknowledged by researchers and investors alike. This research paper will document a newly created composite index that will try to more accurately predict the overall U.S. economy through the proxy of GDP than the current S&P 500 index. Success will be determined if the composite index representing the addition of a service sector component to the S&P 500 is more correlated to U.S. real GDP than the S&P 500 alone. The results suggest that the service sector is not quite adequately in the S&P 500. …

The Social Infrastructure And The Civil Institutions In Sudan, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Contemporary Sudanese society endures many hardships which are manifested in economic retraction, inflation, recession and stagflation. However, social conflicts are also manifested in simple man's daily complaints to open rebellions. Most academicians agree on one point, that the society endures abnormal conditions. The current paper aims delves into a historical context of civil society as a concept in general which originated in the west. Next it displays differences between it and the Sudan supposing that there is unique experience appropriate to the Sudanese state of affairs. Therefore that possibility of creating an appropriate term that fully describes the social structures …

The Impacts Of Water Pollution On Economic Development In Sudan, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Water pollution is a chronic crisis in Sudan that is rarely researched. However, it is combined with scarcity, disputes and uncertainty. In The current paper we introduce its concepts with emphasis on the growing problems of pollution combined with scarcity. A Case study of the growing problem of pollution is introduced and analyzed using economic parameters.

Simulation-Based Estimation Methods For Financial Time Series Models, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper overviews some recent advances on simulation-based methods of estimating time series models and asset pricing models that are widely used in finance. The simulation based methods have proven to be particularly useful when the likelihood function and moments do not have tractable forms and hence the maximum likelihood method (MLE) and the generalized method of moments (GMM) are difficult to use. They can also be useful for improving the finite sample performance of the traditional methods when financial time series are highly persistent and when the quantity of interest is a highly nonlinear function of system parameters. The …

Assignment For Merger And Acquisition, Poonam Mehra

Poonam Singh Mehra

No abstract provided.

Mergers And Acquisitions: Strategies, Poonam Mehra

Poonam Singh Mehra

No abstract provided.