Econometrics Commons^™

Beyond The Stats: Empirical Analysis Of The Impact Of Performance Metrics And Nationality On Major League Soccer Player Salaries: A Panel Data Analysis, Daniel Pereira

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the possibility of how player in-game individual performance and nationality shape the salary system in Major League Soccer (MLS). The objective is to evaluate the direct relationship between key performance indicators (KPIs) such as field position, goals, assists, appearances, and defensive contributions, and how these factors are different between domestic and international players.

Ai Adoption And Wage Growth In U.S. Industries: A Sectoral Analysis, Demitrius Andrellos

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming nearly every sector and has significant implications for workers and their wages. This paper examines the impact of the utilization of AI on wage growth across various industries in the United States. Through analysis of trends, examination of current research, and regression analysis using real industry data, the research demonstrates the disparate impacts of AI. Research suggests that AI raises wages in tech- and finance-centric sectors where it complements humans but keeps wages down in labor-intensive sectors where it replaces them. Understanding this disparity is important to build equitable workforce policies for the AI age.

Empirical Analysis Of The Impact Of Macroeconomic Determinants On Equity Reit Performance, Chris Morello

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates how equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) respond to key macroeconomic factors: stock market performance, interest rate changes, and inflation. Using annual data from 1972 to 2024, multiple linear regressions are conducted to assess which variables significantly explain REIT returns. The results reveal a strong and consistent relationship between equity REIT performance and S&P 500 returns, while interest rates and lagged inflation measures show no statistically significant impact. These findings suggest that REITs behave more like equities than fixed-income assets, particularly in the long term. While the models have limited explanatory power, the analysis supports the idea …

Determinants Of Wealth Inequality In Central America: A Panel Data Analysis Of Socioeconomic And Institutional Factors, Jose Manuel Fernandez Pou

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This study applies a non-linear panel threshold regression model to examines the factors of economic development in Central America, with an emphasis on institutional and socioeconomic factors. Using data acquired between 2000 and 2023 the research evaluates how different variables like trade openness, FDI, financial development, education spending, inflation and population growth impacts the growth of GDP at different levels of institutional quality. The results demonstrate that institutional quality levels create a distinct threshold effect when trade openness and FDI fail to promote growth in weak institutional settings while inflation volatility strongly hinders growth. FDI and financial development show positive …

Beyond The Road Trip: Investigating The Impact Of Travel Fatigue On Nba Team Performance, Anthony Pugliese

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the impact of travel fatigue on NBA player performance. In this paper we will look at key variables such as back-to-back games and long-distance travel. By using specific team by team data on factors like game results, travel distance, and rest days. This study examined how specific factors like time zone shifts and travel length influences winning percentage and player efficiency. This paper will also show a regression analysis and visual data to back up results using real life data. The results showed that team performance decreased significantly when teams were at a higher rate of travel …

The Contemporaneous Impact Of Unemployment And Income Inequality On Violent Vs Property Crime Rates In New England: A Panel Data And Machine Learning Approach, Cora Sousa

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the possible impact of unemployment and income inequality on property and or violent crimes in the New England region in the United States from 2003 to 2022. Using a panel data analysis looking at unemployment rates and factors of income inequality in New England states, Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, and Vermont, along with demographic factors like race and gender aim to find a relationship between unemployment and income inequality with crime rates. Economic distress, usually caused by unemployment, can cause an individual to commit crimes due to hard times. Using machine learning decision trees …

The Price Of Victory: A Machine Learning Analysis Of How Salary Dispersion Influences Team Success In Major League Baseball, Joseph Belsanti

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper examines the effect of salary dispersion on team success in Major League Baseball (MLB). Using data from 29 MLB teams over eight seasons (2012-2019), this study uses multiple models, such as Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), panel data regressions, and Random Forest machine learning, to investigate the degree – if any – that inequalities in a team's payroll impacts success, measured by winning percentage. The study's results show that, contrary to prevailing theories, salary dispersion – measured by a Gini coefficient – is not a significant predictor of a team's winning percentage (team success). Instead, team performance metrics, such …

The Impact Of Tariffs And Institutional Quality On Economic Growth In Latin America: A Panel Data Analysis, Blaisedel Frampton

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the relationship between tariffs and economic growth in Latin American countries and how institutional quality may impact this relationship. The study will use data from the World Development Indicators Data Bank. The data used comes from 18 high- or middle-income countries within South America and the Caribbean from the years 2003 to 2023. Results from this study were found using a fixed-effects regression model. The results from this study show that overall, there is a negative correlation between tariffs and economic growth in South America. There is also a positive correlation between institutional quality and economic growth …

Passive Vs. Active Etfs: A Comparative Data Analysis Of Market Performance And Investor Behavior, Herrick Louis

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the long-term performance of passive vs active ETFs. Using a comparative analysis of historical returns from 2015 to 2024, Regression modeling, and time Series Analysis, I assessed whether passive investing offers a strategic advantage overactive management. Drawing on data from VOO Passive, SWANX active, Bitcoin, and MAG 7 technology ETFs, and the Financial Sector.

Socioeconomic Factors Affecting Gendered Happiness: A Cross-Sectional Study Of Oecd Countries, Anusha Khan

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper explores how socioeconomic factors influence life satisfaction across OECD countries and how these effects vary by gender. Using a cross-sectional dataset, the study runs three separate regressions, total, men’s, and women’s happiness to test whether factors like health, education, safety, and support networks impact life satisfaction differently for men and women. A Random Forest model is also used to validate the robustness of selected predictors. Findings show that health and support matter universally, but men’s well-being is more closely tied to educational attainment, while women’s happiness is more sensitive to feelings of safety.

Decarbonization Under Carbon Policy And Pricing Shifts: A Machine Learning-Driven Synthetic Control And Panel Data Analysis, Chanboremey Teng

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This study evaluates the effectiveness of carbon pricing instruments – Carbon taxes and Emissions Trading Systems (ETS) – in reducing CO2 emissions per capita across 152 countries from 1990 to 2023 using dynamic panel regressions with fixed effects. The analysis estimates both short-run and long-run effects while controlling economic structure, energy mix, and environmental policy stringency (EPS). The results show that ETS policies yield the strongest long-term reduction in emissions at approximately 7.35%, followed by carbon taxes at 5.6%, and EPS regulatory measures at 6.35%. However, when all three instruments are modeled together, the marginal effects of pricing mechanisms weaken, …

Religion And Economic Development: Past, Present, And Future, Sascha O. Becker, Amma Panin, Steven J. Pfaff, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

This chapter examines the role of religion in economic development, both historically and today. Religion's influence varies globally, with high religiosity in countries like Pakistan and low rates in China. Despite declines in some Western countries, religion remains influential worldwide, with projected growth in Muslim populations due to higher fertility rates. Religion continues to shape societal norms and institutions, such as education and politics, even after its direct influence fades. The chapter explores how religious institutions and norms have impacted economic outcomes, focusing on both persistence and decline. It also examines cultural transmission, institutional entrenchment, networks, and religious competition as …

Religion, Culture, And Politics, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

This chapter presents a conceptual framework for understanding the interaction of religion, ideology, and politics. The framework’s key insights are: i) culture and ideology provide a shared mental framework for interpreting the world; ii) ideology is malleable, and it can be used to justify a wide set of empirical realities in a manner that is consistent with the prevailing mental framework; iii) religion is particularly adept at shaping this mental framework because it attempts to explain the unknown; iv) because co-religionists share a mental framework that depends on a (religious) interpretation of events, religions are particularly likely to be co-opted …

From Home To Abroad: The Intergenerational Impact Of Household Member Migration On Women’S Economic & Social Empowerment In Egypt, Menna Elgohary

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis investigates to what extent the migration of a household member to an Arab country leads to increased social and economic empowerment among Egyptian women of two age categories (15-35 and +35) over two waves. Determined through Principle Component Analysis (PCA) of panel data from Egypt Labor Market Panel Surveys in 2018 and 2023, composite indices of social and economic empowerment serve as dependent variables in an IV 2SLS regression model. The model assesses whether household member migration, proxied by migration prevalence on the district (qism) level as an IV, causes a significant increase in social and economic empowerment …

The International Transracial Adoption Effect: Measuring The Well-Being Of Korean Adoptees Vs. Non-Adopted Korean Americans, Grace H. Jones

Honors Theses

In this study, I examine the differences in well-being and long-term outcomes between adopted and non-adopted Korean Americans. The vast majority of adopted Korean Americans are placed with white, heterosexual couples, positioning them in a unique position in American society. While they are raised in white families and often disconnected from Korean culture, they are still perceived and treated as Asian by society. Scholars refer to this tension as the transracial adoptee paradox. This study explores how that paradox affects both economic and non-economic outcomes. The analysis finds that adopted Koreans tend to earn higher incomes than their non-adopted peers, …

Reporting And Underreporting Of Sex Harassment In United States Public Schools: A Mixed Methods Analysis, Erica S. Matthisen

Scripps Senior Theses

Using mixed methods, I assess the factors that contribute to the underreporting of sex harassment in elementary and secondary educational environments. I first use regional Title IX data to assess the impacts of Title IX resource access on several indicator variables, finding a positive impact on allegations and discipline cases when a harassment/bullying policy was made available online. Next, I seek to identify other factors that contribute to reporting or underreporting. To that end, I conduct organizational analysis and informational interviews. From the organizational analysis, I identify factors that contribute to the normalization and underreporting of sex harassment and strategies …

Modeling Inflation Expectations In Forward-Looking Interest Rate And Money Growth Rules, Zhengyang Chen, Victor J. Valcarcel

Faculty Publications

We propose a novel approach that directly embeds rational expectations (RE) into a low-dimensional structural vector autoregression (SVAR) without the need for any mapping to a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Beginning from a fully specified “consensus” structural model, we establish an instrumental variable procedure internal to the SVAR to obtain RE-consistent structural responses to identified monetary policy shocks. Our RE-SVAR framework facilitates a comparison across two alternative monetary policy indicators that accommodate long horizons in the formation of inflation expectations in the policy rule. We construct clouds of responses of inflation and economic activity to monetary …

Three Essays On The Socioeconomics Of Drinking Water Pfas Contamination, Nabin Babu Khanal

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are a group of over 15,000 synthetic compounds widely used for their resistance to heat, stains, grease, and water. While central to many modern conveniences, ingestion of PFAS is increasingly linked to adverse human health outcomes and are now detected globally in drinking water systems. This dissertation investigates three interrelated aspects of PFAS contamination in U.S. drinking water: (1) socioeconomic determinants and spatial patterns of contamination; (2) the economic impacts of contamination on residential property values; and (3) the effect of inconsistent PFAS regulations on public trust in environmental governance.

Using data from the U.S. …

Striking A Balance: Market Shock & Responses In Automotive Components Manufacturing, Emma Lane Mcgahey

All Theses

This thesis examines the effects of extreme market shocks on supply chain dynamics within the automotive industry. Through an analysis of demand data from an automotive manufacturer to its component suppliers (January 2018 to May 2024), the study investigates the relationship between market shocks and supply chain responses, providing insights into how auto components inventory management handles downstream responses to market shocks. With supporting public data—from FRED, BLS, and the U.S. Census Bureau resources—we explore two primary relationships: the impact of market shocks on the Average Standard Deviation of Demand (SDO) and the effect of demand variability on expedited pricing …

How To Discipline Financial Markets: Reputation Is Not Enough, Maria Bigoni, Gabriele Camera, Marco Casari

ESI Working Papers

Historically, shocks originating in the financial sector often spilled over into the real sector with dramatic consequences. We study in the lab how interventions targeting disclosure and capital requirements of financial intermediaries can reduce insolvencies or prevent their negative effects from propagating to the broader economy. In our two-sector economy, consumers and producers can fund financial intermediaries, who, in turn, provide them with liquidity to settle trades. However, intermediaries may undertake risky investments and become insolvent, which depresses real economic activity. In the experiment, insolvencies were frequent. As a consequence, consumers and producers often refused to fund intermediaries, which lowered …

Axiomatic Characterization Of Generalized Neo-Eu Preferences And The Falsifiability Of Ambiguity Theories, Manuel Nunez, Mark Schneider

ESI Working Papers

We introduce a new weakening of the independence axiom, co-extreme independence, which we show characterizes a class that encompasses popular ambiguity models including Hurwicz preferences, ϵ-contamination preferences, and NEOEU preferences. Importantly, our representation unifies these as forms of simple ambiguity models as we show that the Vapnik-Chervonenkis (VC) dimension of these models is either unity or increases linearly with the number of states. In contrast, standard ambiguity models characterized in the Anscombe-Aumann framework are complex ambiguity models that have a VC dimension that is either infinite or increases exponentially in the number of states. We show that simple ambiguity preferences …

A Critical Evaluation Of Loss Aversion As The Determinate Of Effort In Compensation Framing, Timothy W. Shields, James Wilhelm

ESI Working Papers

A robust finding in managerial accounting research is that participants prefer contracts framed as bonuses to economically equivalent contracts framed as penalties. Another finding is that participants put forth more effort when facing penalty contracts than equivalent bonus contracts. Both results are commonly described as due to loss aversion, an integral portion of prospect theory. We test whether loss aversion is correlated with higher effort in an experiment with two parts. In the first part, we elicit individual participants' loss aversion using two measures. In the second part of the experiment, participants choose costly effort to increase the likelihood of …

On Explaining Why The (Human) World Is Rich, Bart J. Wilson

ESI Working Papers

The wealth of the modern world is a natural historical marvel. Explaining it has traditionally been the purview of economic historians, as exemplified by the recent book How the World Became Rich by Mark Koyama and Jared Rubin. Economic historians, though, tend to only ask process-oriented “how” questions and “by what means” questions of the Great Enrichment. The eight co-authors of Explaining Technology, who are not economic historians, engage the debate asking a different question. Their goal is to explain the exponential shape of our enrichment with a model of the combinatorial evolution of technology. With an eye toward how …

Do Participation Rates Vary With Participation Payments In Laboratory Experiments?, Huizhen Zhong, Cary Deck, Daniel J. Henderson

ESI Working Papers

This paper reports a series of experiments designed to evaluate how the advertised participation payment impacts participation rates in laboratory experiments. Our initial goal was to generate variation in the participation rate as a means to control for selection bias when evaluating treatment effects in common laboratory experiments. Initially, we varied the advertised participation payment to 1734 people from $5 to $15 using standard email recruitment procedures, but found no statistical evidence this impacted the participation rate. A second study increased the advertised payment up to $100. Here, we find marginally significant statistical evidence that the advertised participation payment affects …

The Effect Of Crime On Tourism In Indonesia, Muhammad Farhan, Hera Susanti

Journal of Strategic and Global Studies

Tourism sector is widely known as one of economic sectors that can be the engine of economic growth in an effort to reduce poverty in a country. However, growth in the tourism sector can be influenced by safety factors. Tourists tend to avoid tourism destination areas with high crime rates in order to avoid becoming victims of crime. This study aims to analyze the effect of crime on the number of tourist arrivals in Indonesia by using four proxies of crime, which are total crime rate, property crime rate, violent crime rate, and fraud crime rate. This study utilizes a …

Coordination Within And Across Two Cultures, Gabriele Camera, James Gilmore, Marilyn Giselle Hazlett, Jason Shachat, Bochen Zhu

ESI Working Papers

We study within- and cross-culture interaction in a Stag Hunt game, using a controlled online experiment with Chinese and American participants. We find that cross-culture interactions can have a positive impact on efficiency. American participants, particularly females, more frequently selected the efficient but risky action when facing a Chinese counterpart. Chinese male participants, instead, less frequently selected the efficient but risky action when facing an American counterpart. These behavioral asymmetries do not support the notion of cultural equivalence, nor the hypothesis that multiculturalism fosters strategic uncertainty.

Who Helps Tsimane Children And Adults?, Eric Schniter, Daniel K. Cummings, Paul L. Hooper, Jonathan Stieglitz, Benjamin C. Trumble, Hillard S. Kaplan, Michael D. Gurven

ESI Working Papers

We examine various forms of helping behavior among Tsimane Amerindians of Bolivia, focusing on the provision of shelter, childcare, food, sickcare, cultural influence, and traditional story knowledge. Kin selection theory traditionally explains nepotistic nurturing of youth by closely related kin. However, less attention has been given to understanding the help provided by individuals without close genetic relatedness. To explain who provides various forms of help, we evaluate support for several predictions derived from kin selection theory. Our results show that helpers who are most often closely related and from an older generation tend to provide more costly forms of help …

Ideology And Economic Change, Jared Rubin, Debin Ma

ESI Working Papers

This paper revisits the old theses of the contrasting paths to modernization between Japan and China. It develops a new analytical framework regarding the role of ideology and ideological change—Meiji Japan’s decisive turn towards the West pitted against Qing China’s lethargic response to Western imperialism—as the key driver behind these contrasting paths. Our framework and historical narrative highlight the contrast between Tokugawa Japan’s feudal, decentralized political regime and Qing China’s centralized bureaucratic system as a key determinant driving the differential patterns of ideological realignment. We argue that the 1894-95 Japanese naval victory over China could not be justified under the …

Moral Content Diminishes Preference Falsification, Maxine Bonneau, Tanya O'Garra, Praveen Kujal

ESI Working Papers

We examine how the moral (or neutral) content of an issue influences the tendency to falsify attitudes, given varying social and monetary incentives to engage in such ‘preference falsification’. We conduct an incentivized two stage online experimental study where, in a prior first stage, attitude strength over moral and neutral issues is elicited. Then, in the second stage participants in groups of ten were asked to express their preferences regarding the moral or neutral issues for each possible combination of supporters and opposers in their group, each associated with varying monetary payoffs. More than half of the participants falsify their …

Capital Flows And Corruption On Southeast And East Asia’S Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis, Tithvitou Teng

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the role of capital flows both from internal and external sources on economic growth, as well as the main social obstacle factor to growth, corruption. The paper attains this by conducting panel data analysis for Southeast and East Asian countries from 2005-2022. Sources of capital flows are divided into external sources, i.e. foreign direct investment (FDI) and personal remittance, and internal sources, i.e. domestic bank credit and stock market capitalization. The results show that corruption hinders economic growth and only some sources of capital have a positive impact on the economy while the effect of other sources …