Econometrics Commons^™

Generating Ambiguity In The Laboratory, Jack Douglas Stecher, Timothy W. Shields, John Dickhaut

ESI Working Papers

This article develops a method for drawing samples from which it is impossible to infer any quantile or moment of the underlying distribution. The method provides researchers with a way to give subjects the experience of ambiguity. In any experiment, learning the distribution from experience is impossible for the subjects, essentially because it is impossible for the experimenter. We describe our method mathematically, illustrate it in simulations, and then test it in a laboratory experiment. Our technique does not withhold sampling information, does not assume that the subject is incapable of making statistical inferences, is replicable across experiments, and requires …

Can Manipulators Mislead Prediction Market Observers?, Ryan Oprea, David Porter, Chris Hibbert, Robin Hanson, Dorina Tila

ESI Working Papers

We study experimental markets where privately informed traders exchange simple assets, and where uninformed third parties are asked to forecast the values of these assets, guided only by market prices. Although prices only partially aggregate information, they signicantly improve the forecasts of third parties. In a second treatment, a portion of traders are given preferences over the forecasts made by observers. Although we find evidence that these traders attempt to manipulate prices in order to influence the beliefs of observers, we find no evidence that observers make less accurate forecasts as a result.

Aggregate Production Functions, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes.

• Aggregate production functions and the measurement of infrastructure productivity: A reassessment. (2000, November 1). [Unpublished manuscript].

• Correcting for biases when estimating production functions: An illusion of the laws of algebra? (2007, August 9). [Unpublished Cambridge Journal of Economics referee report]. Manuscript.

Counterfeiting Truth: Statistical Reporting On The Basis Of Trust, David M. Levy, Sandra J. Peart

Jepson School of Leadership Studies articles, book chapters and other publications

Semantics and game theory offer modern approaches to very old problems.¹ David Lewis introduced game theoretic concepts into the study of language in his examination of conventions.² In this chapter we study the language of a specific sort of conventions: statistical estimators. Such estimators have the important property of being both well-defined mathematical objects and devices that form the basis of factual claims asserted and, perhaps, believed by rational agents.³ The convention we analyze allows econometric reporting to proceed on the basis of trust.⁴ In contrast with Lewis, we shall demonstrate that such a convention is …

More Efficient Estimation In Nonparametric Regression With Nonparametric Autocorrelated Errors, Liangjun Su, Aman Ullah

Research Collection School Of Economics

We define a three-step procedure for more efficient estimation of the nonparametric regression mean with nonparametric autocorrelated errors. The procedure is based upon a nonparametric prewhitening transformation of the dependent variable that has to be estimated from the data by a local polynomial technique. We establish the asymptotic distribution of our estimator under weak dependence conditions and show that it is more efficient than the conventional local polynomial estimator. Furthermore, we consider criterion functions based on the linear exponential family, which include the local polynomial least squares criterion as a special case. Simulation evidence suggests that significant gains can be …

Reform In Lieu Of Change: Tastes Great, Less Filling, Jonathan G.S. Koppell

Publications from President Jonathan G.S. Koppell

In this response to Light, Koppell argues that the increasing frequency of reform may reflect Congress's inability to make significant changes to the substance of entrenched government programs. Moreover, he observes that the more profound evolution in government has been the movement toward the market-based provision of services, which has created a demand for new competencies in the public sector.

Choice Of Technique + Capital Valuation, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (1978, June 30). Notes on fixed capital: Outline [Handwritten notes].

• Shaikh, A. (1979, October 25). Fixed capital and discounting [Handwritten notes].

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Notes on depreciation [Handwritten notes].

• Shaikh, A. (1984, February 28). Paul Swanson dissertation: “A study of fixed capital and value theory” [Handwritten notes].

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Collective, law of one price, and capital stock (Sraffa and Marx) [Handwritten notes].

• Shaikh, A. (2006, July 21). Choice of technique and capital valuation [Handwritten notes].

• Shaikh, A. (2006, July 21). Price and quality [Handwritten notes].

• Shaikh, …

A New Approach To Robust Inference In Cointegration, Sainan Jin, Peter Phillips, Yixiao Sun

Research Collection School Of Economics

A new approach to robust testing in cointegrated systems is proposed using non-parametric HAC estimators without truncation. While such HAC estimates are inconsistent, they still produce asymptotically pivotal tests and, as in conventional regression settings, can improve testing and inference.

L S Penrose's Limit Theorem: Tests By Simulation, Pao-Li Chang, Vincent Chua, Moshe Machover

Research Collection School Of Economics

LS Penrose’s limit theorem (PLT) – which is implicit in Penrose [5, p. 72] and for which he gave no rigorous proof – says that, in simple weighted voting games, if the number of voters increases indefinitely while existing voters retain their weights and the relative quota is pegged, then – under certain conditions – the ratio between the voting powers of any two voters converges to the ratio between their weights. Lindner and Machover [3] prove some special cases of PLT; and conjecture that the theorem holds, under rather general conditions, for large classes of weighted voting games, various …

Psuedo Production Functions, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes.

• Folder cover labeled “pseudo production functions”. (n.d.). [Unpublished folder cover].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (n.d.). Handwritten notes with equations beginning “δK = δR(1 − u)” [Unpublished handwritten notes]. Manuscript.

• Shaikh, A., PhD, annotator. (2003, August 26). EViews regression output for actual data (with handwritten note titled “actual data: eliminating straight rates of change from regressions still does not make a [illegible] them”) [Unpublished regression output with handwritten annotations]. Computer output with annotations.

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (2003, July 13). Handwritten notes titled “picking up the pseudo production function via a general regression” [Unpublished handwritten …

Capacity Utiliz + Shape Of Ac Curve, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Capacity utilization CD: File list [List of files].

• Betancourt, R. R. (n.d.). Review of work patterns and capital utilization: An international comparative study [Review].

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). S-shaped (nonlinear) ULC curve between shifts 1 and 2 [Handwritten notes].

• Shaikh, A. (2002, October 21). Simulated data to see if our cointegration capacity utilization equation is biased by relative price movements [Handwritten notes].

• Shaikh, A. (2002, October 23). Eco capacity, capital-capacity ratio, and scale of plant [Handwritten notes].

• Shaikh, A. (2002, October 23). Trend of cointegration capacity utilization measure vs. …

Aggregate Production Functions Paper, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes.

• Folder titled “Aggregate production function paper CEEA, March 15–17, 2002”. (2002, March 15–17). [Unpublished folder]. File folder.

• Shaikh, A. (2002, February 6). Goodwin variables dynamics in actual data (printout with charts and notes) [Unpublished computer printout]. Data output and notes.

• Berglund, P. G. (2002, January 20). Comment on Jesus Felipe and Franklin Fisher’s paper entitled “Aggregation in production functions: What applied economists should know” [Unpublished manuscript].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (2002, February 28). Handwritten notes on simulated data and Fourier series [Unpublished handwritten notes]. Manuscript.

• Documentation for eviews file USACTUALANDSIMULATEDDATA.WF1: Variables and …

Apr Paper, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes.

• Folder cover labeled “APF paper, EEA March 15–17, 2002 Boston: non linear dynamics and the pseudo-production function notes, workfiles, EViews programs.” (2002, March 15–17). Unpublished folder cover [File folder].

• McCombie, J. (2002, March 25). Email to Anwar Shaikh regarding a conference and a possible publication. Unpublished email correspondence.

• Handwritten notes titled “perfect fitting aggregate prod. functions.” (2002, March 16). Unpublished handwritten notes [Manuscript]. (A. Shaikh, PhD, author).

• Handwritten notes titled “an approximation problem.” (2002, March 21). Unpublished handwritten notes [Manuscript]. (A. Shaikh, PhD, author).

• Handwritten notes reflecting on McCombie and Fisher’s views …

The Relationship Between Stock Returns And Inflation In Malaysia, Soke Ling Mau

Student Works (2000-2009)

This study starts out with an introductory chapter covering the relationship between nominal and real stock returns with inflation in a general view. Economists are still puzzled on the positive and negative relationship between stock returns and inflation as many empirical results suggest varied conclusions. The second chapter is the literature review, which consists of a few well-known authors with their own theories and hypotheses. The core 3 discussion in this chapter refers to the classical view on stock returns and inflation in 1930 and post -Keynesian view on stock returns and inflation from 1970 till 2001. Chapter Three focuses …

Granger-Causality Between Monetary Aggregates And Sectoral Production In Malaysia, Kay Choy Wan

Student Works (2000-2009)

The main purpose of this study is to empirically assess the distributional impact of financial variables using Malaysian quarterly data. The rationale for pursuing this objective is to identify the possible transmission channels of the financial variables with respect to the sectoral production and its underlying causal. The study employing the methodology of Azali and Habibullah (2000) in using the MWALD test for testing Granger non-causality (Toda Yamamoto, 199 5) was constructed using Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR). The Augmented Dickey­Fuller (ADF) and Phillip-Perron (PP) unit root test procedures Johansen and Juselius (1990) cointegration test and the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) …

The Impact Of Bond Ratings On Equity Market : Malaysian Experience, P. Raman Ponnusamy

Student Works (2000-2009)

This research will examine the impact of bond ratings on market efficiency and stock returns. The study covered rating announcements from 1996 to 2001. Four types of rating announcements were covered namely initial announcement, reaffirmation, upgrades and downgrades. Each rating is categorized into investment grade and speculative grade. The mean adjusted model was used to determine the abnormal returns. The findings showed insignificant movement in abnormal returns for all type of ratings and also the sub-category of speculative and investment grades. The result also revealed that the market is efficient in semi-strong form as far as Malaysian market is concerned. …

How Do Forecasts Respond To Changes In Monetary Policy?, Laurence Ball, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

Just as changes in atmospheric conditions affect weather forecasts, changes in monetary policy affect economic forecasts. When monetary policy shifts, forecasters change their predictions about growth and inflation. But does the economy change to the same extent that forecasts do? In this article, Laurence Ball and Dean Croushore examine forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to determine if forecasts and the economy respond in tandem or if there are significant differences.

The Challenge Of Administration By Regulation: Preliminary Findings Regarding The U.S. Government's Venture Capital Funds, Jonathan G.S. Koppell

Publications from President Jonathan G.S. Koppell

This article assesses the ability of elected officials to control public policy as implemented by public/private hybrid organizations, specifically, government venture capital funds. The study reveals greater control over OPIC investment funds than Enterprise Funds despite the existence of more traditional administrative tools of control for Enterprise Funds. This finding suggests that the regulatory infrastructure for hybrid organizations is more determinative of control than the existence (or lack) of traditional administrative control tools. Thus the challenge of hybrid government centers on the development of regulation as a substitute for administration.

How Useful Are Forecasts Of Corporate Profits, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

If forecasters predict higher earnings for corporations, the stock market will rise. Stock prices will drop with a forecast of lower earnings. But are such forecasts on the money? Dean Croushore uses data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to check the accuracy of forecasts of corporate profits. The results show that, despite the volatility of corporate profits, the forecasts are rational.

Temporary Equilibrium Dynamics With Bayesian Learning, Shurojit Chatterji

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper examines the stability of deterministic steady states in a class of economies where the state variable is one dimensional and where agents use Bayesian techniques to form expectations. The dynamics with learning are locally convergent if the prior mean is close to a stable perfect-foresight root having modulus less than 1 and if the prior beliefs are held with enough confidence. The dynamics are, however, divergent if the prior mean or the variance of the prior distribution is sufficiently large

Long Run Growth Patterns, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (1990, March). Long run growth patterns [Handwritten notes discussing linear splines, segmented trends, and piecewise regression]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (1990, March 11). Forms of Marxian technical change [Handwritten notes discussing basic models of technical change]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (1990, March 11). Marxian technical change [Handwritten notes discussing disembodied and embodied forms]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (1990, March 11). Nonlinear forms for Marxian technical change [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (1990, March 10). Marxian technical change and potential output: 1899–1984 [Handwritten notes discussing the problem of estimating capital-output ratios]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. …

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Economic Crisis, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes.

• Shaikh, A. (1987). Humbug production function [Final draft manuscript]. In The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics (pp. 1–3). London, England: Palgrave Macmillan. Author: Anwar Shaikh.

Period Of Production, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This folder includes:
Handwritten note cards titled:

• Sraffa System, on defining a standard set of outputs and reducing differences in C/V to differences in the period of production for a vertically integrated economy
• Std. Prop. & Period of Production, on whether standard proportions relate to the physical period of reproduction, the iterative transformation from value composition to prices of production, and Sraffa multipliers

Aggregate Production Functions, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes.

• Folder cover titled “aggregate production functions”. (n.d.). [Unpublished folder cover].

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (n.d.). Handwritten notes on F. M. Fisher’s “Aggregate production functions revisited” [Unpublished handwritten notes]. Manuscript.

• Ara, K. (1978, December). Parable and realism in the theory of capital: A generalization of Prof. Samuelson’s theory of surrogate production function. Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics.

• Gallaway, L. E. (1982). Specification of the aggregate production function. Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Economiche e Commerciali.

• Shaikh, A., PhD. (n.d.). Handwritten notes with a graph of a basic production function [Unpublished handwritten notes]. Manuscript. …

Inflation And Taxable Capacity: Some Recent Evidence, Barbara Allison Haney-Powell

Masters Theses

Colin Clark's theory of inflation has had a profound effect on present-day economic theory concerning taxation policy. While his belief that inflation occurred when all tax revenues exceeded 25 percent of national income was rejected by his contemporaries in the 1940's, supply-side economists incorporate Clark's theory into their proposals for curing the unemployment and inflation of the 1970's and 1980's. These proposals gained popular support and resulted in the election of President Ronald Reagan who implemented such proposals. The purpose of this study is to determine the veracity of Clark's theory.

Clark's theory was tested in this study with the …

Vertical Integration, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This folder includes:
Handwritten note cards titled:

• Costa Paper
• Exchange Value of Value
• Mathematics Textbooks (e.g., Introduction to Matrix Analysis…)
• S/V and Real Wage
• Ricardian Model
• ANNOUNCE MAKE-UP Week of April 9
• Factor Price Equalization
• Transformation Curves
• Computer Time Memo and Magdoff
• Capital–Consumption Good Model
• One-Sector Fixed Proportions Technique
• Swan’s Argument
• Biproportional Matrices and Input–Output Change
• Fixed Proportions & Variable Proportions
• Consumption Theory & Random Behavior
• Anti-Critique (Luxemburg)
• Graphical Version of Postulates: Indifference Curves
• Human Needs & Wants
• Culture → Enculturation → Economic Rationality
• Marginal Product & Probability Distributions of Factor Services
• Economics of Planning: Labor Theory of Value & …

Polluters’ Profits And Political Response: Direct Control Versus Taxes: Comment, Robert S. Main, Charles W. Baird

Scholarship and Professional Work - Business

In a recent issue of this Review, James Buchanan and Gordon Tullock (B-T) presented a public choice analysis of the relative merits of direct controls and taxes in externality control. In Section IV of their paper, B-T consider the case of reciprocal external diseconomies of consumption. They ask whether "... persons in this sort of interaction, acting through the political processes of the community, will impose on themselves either a penalty tax or direct regulation" (p. 143). Their analysis is carried out within the context of a two-person model in which each person consumes the same quantity of a …

A General Solution For Linear Decision Rules: An Optimal Dynamic Strategy Applicable Under Uncertainty, George A. Hay, Charles C. Holt

Cornell Law Faculty Publications

Linear decision rules for controlling complex systems are often obtained by matrix inversion, but transform methods offer an alternative approach that yields insights into the structure of the decision problem of maximizing expected payoffs under constraints.

Humbug Production Function 2, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (1974, February). Laws of production and laws of algebra: The humbug production function. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 56(1), 1–8.

Laws Of Production And Laws Of Algebra, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (1972, April). Economics workshops working paper XI: Laws of production and laws of algebra [Working paper]. Includes folder cover and revision notes (handwritten notes).

• Shaikh, A. (1974, February). Laws of production and laws of algebra: The humbug production function. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 56(1), 1–8.

• Shaikh, A. (1972, April). Economics workshops working paper XI: Laws of production and laws of algebra [Working paper].

• Shaikh, A. (1972, April). Economics workshops working paper XI: Laws of production and laws of algebra [Working paper].

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Laws of production and laws of algebra: Humbug …

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