Econometrics Commons^™

Economic Freedom And Fiscal Performance: A Regression Analysis Of Indices Of Economic Freedom On Per Capita Gdp, Jason R. Ockey

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper explores whether different forms of economic freedom drive fiscal performance. We also seek to determine which specific measurements of economic freedom have the most statistically significant impacts. Though the results of our analysis show that economic freedom does impact levels of per capita GDP, the interpretation of these results is more complicated. Because some indices of economic freedom have negative effects on per capita GDP or are statistically insignificant, it is important to note that simply generally increasing a country’s overall level of economic freedom will not necessarily spur economic growth or increase fiscal performance. This paper does …

Target Industry Study: An Empirical Analysis Of Intertemporal Trends In Regional Industrial Base Composition, David M. Smith

Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects

This paper follows existing literature on local industrial conditions and agglomeration economies in an adapted shift-share framework. The purpose of this study is to develop a cost-efficient empirical model that meets the needs of local government in analyzing changes in industrial composition. The data for this model is obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) with nondisclosed data provided by the Virginia Employment Commission which is sorted by North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) 2-digit industrial sectors. The model developed in this paper identifies certain industrial sectors which exert significant influence on the …

Corrigendum To "A Gaussian Approach For Continuous Time Models Of The Short Term Interest Rate", Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

An error is corrected in Yu and Phillips (2001) (Econometrics Journal, 4, 210-224) where a time transformation was used to induce Gaussian disturbances in the discrete time equivalent model. It is shown that the error process in this model is not a martingale and the Dambis, Dubins-Schwarz (DDS) theorem is not directly applicable. However, a detrended error process is a martingale, the DDS theorem is applicable, and the corresponding stopping time correctly induces Gaussianity. We show that the two stopping time sequences differ by O(a2), where a is the pre-specified normalized timing constant.

General Solution To Difference Equation, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• General solution difference equation, written by Anwar Shaikh, PhD, on April 22, 2011.
• General solution to differences equation, a manuscript file folder label inscribed with the identification code NA-23-63, prepared by Anwar Shaikh, PhD, on June 5, 2026.

Take Me Out Of The Ball Game: The Efficacy Of Public Subsidies In The Success Of Professional Sports Stadiums, Jonah Chodosh

CMC Senior Theses

This paper weights the relative advantages of multiple factors that lead to the success of professional sports stadiums in major markets, though a discussion of the arguments for and against public subsidies towards these projects. Using a logit statistical model, the paper determines that the two factors determining the highest likelihood of venue success include multiple tenants and access to mass transit. The analysis demonstrates that public subsidies towards stadiums don’t generate sufficient economic returns, and that successful stadiums can be created without using taxpayer funds.

Strategic Behavior In Schelling Dynamics: A New Result And Experimental Evidence, Juan Miguel Benito, Pablo Brañas-Garza, Penélope Hern´Andez, Juan A. Sanchis

ESI Working Papers

In this paper we experimentally test Schelling’s (1971) segregation model and confirm the striking result of segregation. In addition, we extend Schelling’s model theoretically by adding strategic behavior and moving costs. We obtain a unique subgame perfect equilibrium in which rational agents facing moving costs may find it optimal not to move (anticipating other participants’ movements). This equilibrium is far for full segregation. We run experiments for this extended Schelling model. We find that the percentage of strategic players dramatically increases with the cost of moving and that the degree of segregation depends on the distribution of rational subjects.

Double Bubbles In Assets Markets With Multiple Generations, Cary Deck, David Porter, Vernon Smith

ESI Working Papers

We construct an asset market in a finite horizon overlapping-generations environment. Subjects are tested for comprehension of their fundamental value exchange environment, and then reminded during each of 25 periods of its declining new value. We observe price bubbles forming when new generations enter the market with additional liquidity and bursting as old generations exit the market and withdrawing cash. The entry and exit of traders in the market creates an M shaped double bubble price path over the life of the traded asset. This finding is significant in documenting that bubbles can reoccur within one extended trading horizon and, …

Cognitive Effort In The Beauty Contest Game, Pablo Brañas-Garza, Teresa García-Muñoz

ESI Working Papers

This paper analyzes cognitive effort in 6 different one-shot p-beauty games. We use both Raven and Cognitive Reáection tests to identify subjects' abilities. We find that the Raven test does not provide any insight on beauty contest game playing but CRT does: subjects with higher scores on this test are more prone to play dominant strategies.

Don’T Ask Me If You Will Not Listen: The Dilemma Of Participative Decision Making, Brice Corgnet, Roberto Hérnan-Gonzalez

ESI Working Papers

We study the effect of participative decision making in an experimental principalagent game, where the principal can consult the agent’s preferred option regarding the task to be undertaken in the final stage of the game. We show that consulting the agent was beneficial to principals as long as they followed the agent’s choice. Ignoring the agent’s choice was detrimental to the principal as it engendered negative emotions and low levels of transfers. Nevertheless, the majority of principals were reluctant to change their mind and adopt the agent’s proposal. Our results suggest that the ability to change one’s own mind is …

Transparency, Efficiency And The Distribution Of Economic Welfare In Pass-Through Investment Trust Games, Thomas A. Rietz, Roman M. Sheremeta, Timothy W. Shields, Vernon Smith

ESI Working Papers

We design an experiment to examine welfare and behavior in a multi-level trust game representing a pass through investment in an intermediated market. In a repeated game, an Investor invests via an Intermediary who lends to a Borrower. A pre-experiment one-shot version of the game serves as a baseline and to type each subject. We alter the transparency of exchanges between non-adjacent parties. We find transparency of the exchanges between the investor and intermediary does not significantly affect welfare. However, transparency regarding exchanges between the intermediary and borrower promotes trust on the part of the investor, increasing welfare. Further, this …

Simulation-Based Estimation Methods For Financial Time Series Models, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper overviews some recent advances on simulatio n-based methods of estimating time series models and asset pricing models that are widely used in finance. The simulation based methods have proven to be particularly useful when the likelihood function and moments do not have tractable forms and hence the maximum likelihood method (MLE) and the generalized method of moments (GMM) are difficult to use. They can also be useful for improving the finite sample performance of the traditional methods when financial time series are highly persistent and when the quantity of interest is a highly nonlinear function of system parameters.The …

A New Bayesian Unit Root Test In Stochastic Volatility Models, Yong Li, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A new posterior odds analysis is proposed to test for a unit root in volatility dynamics in the context of stochastic volatility models. This analysis extends the Bayesian unit root test of So and Li (1999, Journal of Business Economic Statistics) in two important ways. First, a numerically more stable algorithm is introduced to compute the Bayes factor, taking into account the special structure of the competing models. Owing to its numerical stability, the algorithm overcomes the problem of diverged “size” in the marginal likelihood approach. Second, to improve the “power” of the unit root test, a mixed prior specification …

Discussion & Notes On Quality Adjustments Bias Of K Stock, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Fixed reproducible tangible wealth in the United States, 1925–89, written by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, published by the U.S. Government Printing Office, in the year 1993.
• Discussion & note on quality adj bias of k stock, an unpublished set of handwritten research notes and analytical commentary prepared by Anwar Shaikh, PhD, on September 17, 2010.
• Kstock bias in quality adj. prices, a manuscript file folder label inscribed with the identification code NA-23-65, prepared by Anwar Shaikh, PhD, on June 5, 2026.
• Alternate measures of current-cost output/capital indexes: 1947 = 100, an unpublished …

Visibility Of Contributions And Cost Of Information: An Experiment On Public Goods, Anya Savikhin, Roman M. Sheremeta

ESI Working Papers

We experimentally investigate the impact of visibility of information about contributors on contributions in the public goods game. We systematically consider several treatments that are similar to a wide range of situations in practice. First, we vary the cost of viewing identifiable information about contributors. Second, we vary recognizing all, top or bottom contributors. We find that recognizing all contributors significantly increases contributions relative to the baseline. Recognizing only the top contributors is not significantly different from not recognizing contributors, but recognizing only the bottom contributors is as effective as recognizing all contributors. When viewing information about contributors is costly, …

Fight Or Flight? Defending Against Sequential Attacks In The Game Of Siege, Cary Deck, Roman M. Sheremeta

ESI Working Papers

This paper examines theory and behavior in a two-player game of siege, sequential attack and defense. The attacker’s objective is to successfully win at least one battle while the defender’s objective is to win every battle. Theoretically, the defender either folds immediately or, if his valuation is sufficiently high and the number of battles is sufficiently small, then he has a constant incentive to fight in each battle. Attackers respond to defense with diminishing assaults over time. Consistent with theoretical predictions, our experimental results indicate that the probability of successful defense increases in the defenders valuation and it decreases in …

Affecting Policy By Manipulating Prediction Markets: Experimental Evidence, Cary Deck, Shengle Lin, David Porter

ESI Working Papers

Documented results indicate prediction markets effectively aggregate information and form accurate predictions. This has led to a proliferation of markets predicting everything from the results of elections to a company’s sales to movie box office receipts. Recent research suggests prediction markets are robust to manipulation attacks and resulting market outcomes improve forecast accuracy. However, we present evidence from the lab indicating that single‐minded, well‐funded manipulators can in fact destroy a prediction market’s ability to aggregate informative prices and mislead those who are making forecasts based upon market predictions. However, we find that manipulators primarily influence market trades meaning outstanding bids …

Can Markets Save Lives? An Experimental Investigation Of A Market For Organ Donations, Cary Deck, Erik O. Kimbrough

ESI Working Papers

Many people die while waiting for organ transplants even though the number of usable organs is far larger than the number needed for transplant. Governments have devised many policies aimed at increasing available transplant organs with variable success. However, with few exceptions, policy makers are reluctant to establish markets for organs despite the potential for mutually beneficial exchanges. We ask whether organ markets could save lives. Controlled laboratory methods are ideal for this inquiry because human lives would be involved when implementing field trials. Our results suggest that markets can increase the supply of organs available for transplant, but that …

Personality And The Consistency Of Risk Taking Behavior: Experimental Evidence, Cary Deck, Jungmin Lee, Javier Reyes

ESI Working Papers

Researchers have found that an individual’s risk attitude is not stable across elicitation methods. Results reported by Deck et al. (2009) suggest that personality may help explain the apparent inconsistency, offering support to Borghans et al.’s (2008) argument that economists should consider a multi‐domain approach to measuring risk attitudes. This paper uses laboratory methods to compare risk attitudes as measured by the Holt and Laury (2002) procedure under two different frames. We find that, as in Deck et al. (2009), one’s willingness to take financial risks (as measured by Weber et al. 2002) significantly affects behavior; however the effect is …

Perfect And Imperfect Real-Time Monitoring In A Minimum-Effort Game, Cary Deck, Nikos Nikiforakis

ESI Working Papers

This paper presents the results from a minimum-effort game in which individuals can observe the choices of others in real time. We find that under perfect monitoring almost all groups coordinate at the payoff-dominant equilibrium. However, when individuals can only observe the actions of their immediate neighbors in a circle network, monitoring improves neither coordination nor efficiency relative to a baseline treatment without real-time monitoring. We argue that the inefficiency of imperfect monitoring is due to information uncertainty, that is, uncertainty about the interpretation of the information available regarding the actions of others.

Price Increasing Competition? Experimental Evidence, Cary Deck, Jingping Gu

ESI Working Papers

Economic intuition suggests that increased competition generates lower prices. However, recent theoretical work shows that a monopolist may charge a lower price than a firm facing a competitor selling a differentiated product. The direction of the price change when competition is introduced is dependent upon the joint distribution of buyer values for the two products. We explore this relationship using controlled laboratory experiments. Our results indicate that the distribution of buyer values does affect prices in a manner consistent with the theoretical predictions, although price increasing competition is rare due in part to overly intense competition regardless of the distribution …

The Attack And Defense Of Weakest-Link Networks, Dan Kovenock, Brian Roberson, Roman M. Sheremeta

ESI Working Papers

This paper experimentally examines behavior in a two-player game of attack and defense of a weakest-link network of targets, in which the attacker‟s objective is to successfully attack at least one target and the defender‟s objective is diametrically opposed. We apply two benchmark contest success functions (CSFs): the auction CSF and the lottery CSF. Consistent with the theoretical prediction, under the auction CSF, attackers utilize a stochastic “guerilla warfare” strategy — in which a single random target is attacked — more than 80% of the time. Under the lottery CSF, attackers utilize the stochastic guerilla warfare strategy almost 45% of …

Durability, Re-Trading And Market Performance, John Dickhaut, Shengle Lin, David Porter, Vernon Smith

ESI Working Papers

Key differential structural characteristics of environments studied in previous market experiments have documented large divergences in their observed performance, particularly discrepancies in their convergence to expected equilibrium outcomes. We investigate why this should be so.

Are Credit Unions In Ecuador Achieving Economies Of Scale?, Nick A. Marchio

Economics Honors Projects

This study tests the assertion that membership growth in credit unions is constrained by their unique structural features, such as their non-profit mission and member-based ownership. Although these features enhance inclusiveness, existing theory suggest that they work against efficiency when membership grows too diffuse. To address this issue, this study uses a model that takes into account existing theory on constrained-optimization in credit unions and theory on the adverse effects of diffuse ownership. Using data on 36 public credit unions in Ecuador, the empirical analysis finds evidence that credit unions can achieve economies of scale despite their problematic structural features. …

Commentary, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

It is a pleasure to discuss Richard Anderson and Charles Gascon’s (2009) article on their attempt to develop a state-space model to measure potential output growth in the face of data revisions. They use the methodology of Cunningham et al. (2007) applied to real output, to see if they can develop a better measure of potential output than other researchers. Such an approach seems promising, and they develop a unique method to study the data.

Capital Stock Revisions Theory Data, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• No bias in current price stock due to quality adjustment, an unpublished set of handwritten research notes and mathematical tables prepared by Anwar Shaikh, PhD, on May 30, 2009.
• Measurement of capital, a manuscript file folder label inscribed with the identification code NA-23-64, prepared by Anwar Shaikh, PhD, on June 5, 2026.
• Mathematical formulation of capital stock chain indexes and valuation identities, an unpublished set of handwritten equations and index number derivations prepared by Anwar Shaikh, PhD.

Radio Spectrum And The Disruptive Clarity Of Ronald Coase, Thomas W. Hazlett, David Porter, Vernon Smith

ESI Working Papers

In the Federal Communications Commission, Ronald Coase exposed deep foundations via normative argument buttressed by astute historical observation. The government controlled scarce frequencies, issuing sharply limited use rights. Spillovers were said to be otherwise endemic. Coase saw that Government limited conflicts by restricting uses; property owners perform an analogous function via the “price system.” The government solution was inefficient unless the net benefits of the alternative property regime were lower. Coase augured that the price system would outperform. His spectrum auction proposal was mocked by communications policy experts, opposed by industry interests, and ridiculed by policy makers. Hence, it took …

Go West Young Man: Self-Selection And Endogenous Property Rights, Taylor Jaworski, Bart J. Wilson

ESI Working Papers

If, as Hume argues, property is a self-referring custom of a group of people, then property rights depend on how that group forms and orders itself. In this paper we investigate how people construct a convention for property in an experiment in which groups of self-selected individuals can migrate between three geographically separate regions. We find that the absence of property rights clearly decreases wealth in our environment and that interest in establishing property rights is a key determinant of the decision to migrate to a new region. Theft is nearly eliminated among migrants, resulting in strong growth, and non-migrants …

Why Brazil Has Not Grown: A Comparative Analysis Of Brazilian, Indian, And Chinese Economic Management, Fernando Ferrari-Filho, Anthony Petros Spanakos

Department of Political Science and Law Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

This paper does not aim to dispute that Brazil would benefit from reforms in any or all of these areas. Rather, the paper offers a skeptical perspective on reform menus and proposes an alternative explanation for the faster growth of Brazil’s peers India and China2. The paper begins by introducing (section 1) the idea of the BRICs countries, to establish the basis for comparisons of most similar cases. It then surveys the results of a generation of Washington Consensus era growth (section 2). Although there is a considerable amount of divergence over what causes growth, it seems that something approaching …

Ape205, Section 4, Real Competition, Loose Notes, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Profit-rate differences across firms [Handwritten research notes citing John Cable and Dennis Mueller and contrasting static and Schumpeterian explanations of interfirm profit-rate differences, followed by related equations]. (2007, September 16).
• Classical competitive process [Handwritten analytical note deriving relationships among relative prices, profit rates, output, and capital growth]. (2008, January 18).
• Quantitative Micro Software, LLC. (2004, October 27). EViews help: Structuring a workfile [Heavily annotated software-help excerpt on dated, cross-sectional, and panel-data organization, balancing, identifiers, missing values, and restructuring].
• Data in EViews regressions [Handwritten econometric note specifying a cross-industry regression and panel error components]. (n.d.).
• Chen, P. (2008, …

High Stakes Behavior With Low Payoffs: Inducing Preferences With Holt-Laury Gambles, John Dickhaut, Daniel Houser, Jason A. Aimone, Dorina Tila, Cathleen Johnson

ESI Working Papers

A continuing goal of experiments is to understand risky decisions when the decisions are important. Often a decision’s importance is related to the magnitude of the associated monetary stake. Khaneman and Tversky (1979) argue that risky decisions in high stakes environments can be informed using questionnaires with hypothetical choices (since subjects have no incentive to answer questions falsely.) However, results reported by Holt and Laury (2002, henceforth HL), as well as replications by Harrison (2005) suggest that decisions in “high” monetary payoff environments are not well-predicted by questionnaire responses. Thus, a potential implication of the HL results is that studying …