Econometrics Commons^™

Commodity Futures Returns And Policy Uncertainty, Deepa Bannigidadmath, Paresh Kumar Narayan

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

© 2020 Elsevier Inc. This paper investigates whether economic policy uncertainty is predictable using three sets of commodity futures market variables, namely the equal-weighted average of futures excess returns, the excess returns on a portfolio of going long in backwardated commodities, and the excess returns on a portfolio of going short in contango commodities as predictors. We find significant evidence of both in-sample and out-of-sample predictability. Combination forecasts also reveal strong evidence of predictability. Our findings remain unchanged following several robustness tests.

The Effect Of Low Skill Job Opportunities On Postsecondary Enrollment, Mallory Radesic

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

This research examines the effect that low skill job opportunities have on the probability of enrollment in postsecondary institutions between men and women, namely the construction and manufacturing industries. The research is based on the human capital investment theory, which states that individuals will enroll in postsecondary institutions when the perceived benefits outweigh the costs. More job opportunity heightens the opportunity cost of enrollment, hence lowering the probability of enrollment. After running a probit model, there is evidence that enrollment is countercyclical and that enrollment decisions do not vary significantly between men and women. I find that a 1 percent …

Volatility Spillover Between Stock Market And Currency Market Of Pakistan In The Presence Of Structural Breaks, Muhammad Jamil, Hifsa Mobeen

Business Review

This study examines the volatility transmission between the currency market and the stock market of Pakistan in the presence of structural breaks. For this purpose, daily data from the stock market and currency market is analyzed. An empirical investigation is conducted using the bivariate EGARCH model and the test for multiple structural breaks developed by Bai and Perron (2003). This study analyses these markets with the inclusion of sudden changes. Results of the EGARCH model suggest that volatility spillover is positive and bidirectional between these markets of Pakistan.

House Prices And Affordability, R. Greenaway-Mcgrevy, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

The decade following the global financial crisis (GFC) has witnessed rampant house price appreciation in many cities of the developed world. The metropolitan centres of New Zealand showcase this phenomenon with house price appreciation persistently outpacing income growth. In Auckland, the ratio of prevailing median house prices to median household income rose from 6.4 in 2010 to 10.0 in 2016 (Demographia, Citation2011, Citation2017), before declining to 8.6 by 2019 as house prices flat-lined while household incomes increased (Demographia, Citation2020). However, a strong resurgence in house prices during 2020 means that this ratio has resumed its upward trajectory, with an increase …

Social Determinants Of Health: The Impact On Health Outcomes And Hospital Profitability, Danielle Mcpherson

Doctor of Business Administration Dissertations

Hospitals are experiencing decreasing profitability due to increasing healthcare cost. In this paper, I demonstrate that there is financial value to hospitals by addressing social determinants of health (SDOH) as this strategy improves health outcomes and yields cost savings. I estimate the impact of SDOH on the health outcomes using an IV probit regression analysis and estimated the impact of health outcomes on cost using a basic linear regression. I estimate that improving SDOH by one standard deviation will result in hospital cost savings as follows: addressing Violent Crime will decrease hospital cost between 0.16% and 0.21%, addressing Supplemental Nutrition …

The Chow Test With Time Series-Cross Section Data, James K. Binkley, Jeffrey Young

Faculty & Staff Research and Creative Activity

The Chow test is a standard method to test for differences in regression response across groups. In some cases, the groups being tested are composed of a time series of cross sections. If the individual units within the groups have systematic differences, the Chow test is compromised: individual and group effects become confounded. This can cause rejections in the absence of the group effect of interest. We illustrate the problem with Monte Carlo analyses, and propose an alternative bootstrap-like testing procedure that helps eliminate excessive Type I errors.

Purchasing Power Parity Approach To Exchange Rate Misalignment In Nigeria, Nakorji Musa, Agboegbulem Ngozi T. I., Gaiya Blessing A., Atoi Ngozi V.

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the purchasing power parity (PPP) approach to the determination of exchange rate misalignment in Nigeria by using two variants of the PPP: the absolute PPP (aPPP) and the relative PPP (rPPP). Data on the Nigerian Naira to US Dollar (N/$), British Pound (N/£) and Chinese Yuan (N/¥) interbank exchange rates, Nigeria consumer price index and Inflation as well as the US, UK and China consumer price indices and inflation rates spanning 2008:M1 to 2018:M12 were utilized. A recently modified fractional cointegration framework was employed, taking care of smooth structural breaks and nonlinearity, while the unit root tests …

Analysing User Experience Of Mobile Banking Applications In Nigeria: A Text Mining Approach, Omotosho Babatunde S.

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper analyses textual data mined from 37,460 reviews written by mobile banking application users in Nigeria over the period November 2012 – July 2020. On a scale of 1 to 5 (5 being the best), the average user rating for the twenty-two apps included in our sample is 3.5; with the apps deployed by non-interest banks having the highest average rating of 4.0 and those by commercial banks with national authorisation having the least rating of 3.4. Results from the sentiment analysis reveal that the share of positive sentiment words (17.8%) in the corpus more than double that of …

Money And Foreign Exchange Markets Dynamics In Nigeria: A Multivariate Garch Approach, Atoi Ngozi V., Nwambeke Chinedu G.

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the money market and foreign exchange market dynamics in Nigeria by estimating the dynamic correlation and volatility spillovers between the Nigeria Naira/US Dollar Bureau De Change (BDC) exchange rate and interbank call rate with data from January 2007 to August 2019. The study employs a dynamic conditional correlation form of the GARCH model (DCC-GARCH) to assess the nature of correlation, while an unrestricted bivariate BEKK-GARCH (1, 1) form of the multivariate GARCH model is utilized to investigate shocks and volatility spillover of the rates. The estimated DCC-GARCH (1, 1) reveals that interest rate and exchange rate are …

Impact Of Government Expenditure On Economic Growth In Nigeria, 1970-2019, Aluthge Chandana, Jibir Adamu, Abdu Musa

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the impact of Nigerian government expenditure (disaggregated into capital and recurrent) on economic growth using time series data for the period 1970-2019. The paper employs Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. To ensure robustness of results, the study accounts for structural breaks in the unit root test and the co-integration analysis. The key findings of the study are that capital expenditure has positive and significant impact on economic growth both in the short run and long run while recurrent expenditure does not have significant impact on economic growth both in the short run and long run. The study …

Data Driven Value-At-Risk Forecasting Using A Svr-Garch-Kde Hybrid, Marius Lux, Wolfgang Karl Hardle, Stefan Lessmann

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

Appropriate risk management is crucial to ensure the competitiveness of financial institutions and the stability of the economy. One widely used financial risk measure is value-at-risk (VaR). VaR estimates based on linear and parametric models can lead to biased results or even underestimation of risk due to time varying volatility, skewness and leptokurtosis of financial return series. The paper proposes a nonlinear and nonparametric framework to forecast VaR that is motivated by overcoming the disadvantages of parametric models with a purely data driven approach. Mean and volatility are modeled via support vector regression (SVR) where the volatility model is motivated …

Commodities Are Not Industries! A Value Chain Example, Randall W. Jackson, Patricio Aroca

Regional Research Institute Working Papers

Leontief and Stone both received Nobel Prizes in Economics for development and extension of input-output (IO) analysis, a framework that has gained little traction in mainstream U.S. economics. Although IO modeling has gained renewed focus in several problem domains, many contemporary economists eschew Stone's enhancements, resulting in inconsistent analytics, even in top economics journals. In this paper, we use an increasingly common approach to value chain analysis as one example that demonstrates such conceptual misunderstandings and by presenting properly formulated alternatives, we demonstrate the extent of the consequences of neglecting the Stone enhancements and important role of reproducing results.

Response To Exposure Draft On Bearer Plant: An Insight From Capture Theory, Yew Kuok Weng

Student Works (2020-2029)

Despite of steady progress in global convergence of accounting standards, certain International Accounting Standards (IAS) or International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) remain controversial and in need of major overhaul. IAS 41, Agriculture is one of the accounting standards for specialised industry where universal acceptance has not been gained among the stakeholders across the world. Particularly, the stakeholders connected to agricultural sector often express strong criticism towards the IAS 41, but little attention has been given to them by the international accounting standard setter. The long-waited revision of IAS 41 only took place after 14 years since the issuance of IAS …

Regional Household Economic Stress And Retail Sales Fluctuations, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Ana P. Gutierrez-Zubiate

Departmental Papers (E & F)

Economic stress indices are used to monitor business cycle conditions in several regions.Although the deployment of these tools is spreading, there have been relatively few efforts to empirically assess the performance of these gauges, especially at the regional level.This study takes advantage of one such index that is published monthly and has more than 15 years of historical data.Results obtained confirm an inverse relationship between household economic duress and retail sales activity, but it is not found to be statistically reliable over the long-run.Deviations from equilibrium are found to last for 142 months.More relevantly, a 1-point increase in the index …

Analyzing Competitive Balance In Professional Sport, Kevin Alwell

Honors Scholar Theses

In this paper we review several measures to statistically analyze competitive balance and report which leagues have a wider variance of performance amongst its competitors. Each league seeks to maintain high levels of parity, making matches and overall season more unpredictable and appealing to the general audience. Here we quantify competitive advantage across major sports leagues in numbers using several statistical methods in order for leagues to optimize their revenue.

Stock Liquidity Of Malaysian Public Listed Firms, Yee Ee Chia

Student Works (2020-2029)

This thesis is motivated by the limited research on the liquidity of Malaysian public listed firms, the growing number of liquidity horseraces, the recent data commercialization by Bursa Malaysia, and liquidity-enhancing policies being spearheaded mainly by stock exchange regulators in emerging markets. By assembling information that covers 1250 public listed non-financial firms over 2000–2015, the thesis conducts three empirical analyses on the determinants of firm liquidity and the effects of higher liquidity on firm valuation, where liquidity is proxied by the “Closing Percent Quoted Spreads” (CPQS). First, the thesis revisits the standard liquidity model and advocates the inclusion of shareholder …

Unconditional Quantile Regression Analysis Of Uk Inbound Tourist Expenditures, Abhijit Sharma, Richard Woodward, Stefano Grillini

Articles

Using International Passenger Survey (2017) data, this paper employs unconditional quantile regression (UQR) to analyse the determinants of tourist expenditure amongst inbound tourists to the United Kingdom. UQR allows us to estimate heterogeneous effects at any quantile of the distribution of the dependent variable. It overcomes the econometric limitations of ordinary least squares and quantile regression based estimates typically used to investigate tourism expenditures. However, our results reveal that the effects of our explanatory variables change across the distribution of tourist expenditure. This has important implications for those tasked with devising policies to enhance the UK’s tourist flows and expenditures.

Environmental Governance For Whom? Examining The Political, Institutional, Fiscal, And Legal Determinants Of State Environmental Agency Budget Policy In The Us, Andrew R. Duggan

Theses and Dissertations

Budgets are a prospective tool of governance, and appropriations are a planning vehicle reflecting: bureaucracies’ values, complex interactions, collective preferences, political influences, and available resources. Research spanning 30 years finds that environmental pollution is a key determinant of environmental budgets in the US, though myriad factors, actors, and subsystems are important to consider. Due to federalism and devolution of responsibilities and authorities, environmental governance falls largely to the states. While the dynamics that shape state environmental budget policy have received scholarly interest, theoretically-driven examinations of environmental appropriations remain limited within the public budgeting and environmental policy literature.

Using panel data …

Does Racial Discrimination Exist In The Nba?, Logan Kendall

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

This paper aims to examines the affect of race on compensation for NBA players. Based on prior research, I pose the hypothesis that racial discrimination does exist in the NBA with there being a premium for white players. A second hypothesis I present based on the previous research is that the premium for white players exist for only some groups of players and for other groups there with not exist discrimination based on player race. By using career data from every player who played in the 2019-2020 NBA season and their 2019-2020 salaries, a few different models where ran. The …

Three Essays On Health Economics And Policy Evaluation, Shishir Shakya

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

This dissertation consists of three essays on the U.S. Health care policy. Each paragraph below refers to the three abstracts for the three chapters in this dissertation, respectively. I provide quantitative evidence on how much Prescription Drug Monitoring Programs (PDMPs) affects the retail opioid prescribing behaviors. Using the American Community Survey (ACS), I retrieve county-level high dimensional panel data set from 2010 to 2017. I employ three separate identification strategies: difference-in-difference, double selection post-LASSO, and spatial difference-in-difference. I compare how the retail opioid prescribing behaviors of counties, that are mandatory for prescribers to check the PDMP before prescribing controlled substances …

How Do Interest Rates Affect Market Capitalization Growth Rates In The Us?, Philip Carolin

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper investigates how interest rates affect the market capitalization growth rate of individual companies in the US. The research will distinguish itself from previous literature as it analyzes company and macroeconomic data after the 2008 recession. This is particularly interesting as interest rates have been historically low in this time period. Previous research suggests that since the Great Recession the effects of interest rate changes have decreased. On the contrary I will argue that the effects of interest rates still appear to be significant and substantial when explaining the market capitalization growth rate.

Forecasting Realized Volatility Using A Nonnegative Semiparametric Model, Anders Eriksson, Daniel P. A. Preve, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper introduces a parsimonious and yet flexible semiparametric model to forecast financial volatility. The new model extends a related linear nonnegative autoregressive model previously used in the volatility literature by way of a power transformation. It is semiparametric in the sense that the distributional and functional form of its error component is partially unspecified. The statistical properties of the model are discussed and a novel estimation method is proposed. Simulation studies validate the new method and suggest that it works reasonably well in finite samples. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of the proposed model is evaluated against a number of …

Reinventing The Wheel: Comparing Family Friendly Vegas And Adult Friendly Vegas Revenue Growth, James Vaughn

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

The one constant for Las Vegas is change, always looking for the Next Big Thing™. In the 1990s, Las Vegas engaged in a grand experiment: roller coasters, amusement parks, family pools and shows. In the 2000s, Las Vegas reinvented itself back to its roots: condo not amusement parks, sensual not swashbuckling shows, topless European ultra-pools not kiddie pools. While the house always wins, did the casinos of the 1990s or 2000s beat the ultimate house, going beyond nominal revenue growth into the jackpot of real revenue growth?

Empowering Female Entrepreneurs Through Mentorship In Medellin, Colombia: Results From The Field, Theresa Solenski

Master's Theses

Utilizing the power of local knowledge and peer networking, this study attempts to quantify the impacts of mentorship among female micro-entrepreneurs in Medellin, Colombia on empowerment. Developing countries such as Colombia have disproportionately high rates of unprofitable micro-businesses, many of which are managed by women. Internal constraints, such as disempowerment, play a central role in perpetuating poverty. We implement a 6-month mentoring intervention by pairing 18 successful entrepreneurs with 52 disadvantaged female, micro-entrepreneurs in Medellin, Colombia to measure the additional benefit of localized knowledge to micro-borrowers. Using a process of random assignment, I measure the change in female empowerment, measured …

The Quality Of Xbrl Structured Financial Statements: An Empirical Examination Of Custom Tags, Aidana Razhap Kyzy

Theses and Dissertations

In 2009 the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) adopted the eXtensible Business Reporting Language (XBRL) system to improve the process by which financial statements can be used. Interactive financial data filed with the SEC using XBRL provides easily readable and comparable financial data, thereby improving transparency and efficiency in the corporate market. SEC rules permit companies to use custom tags in their financial reports in cases when an appropriate element cannot be found in the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) standard XBRL taxonomy. The inordinate use of custom tags may result in a reduction of financial report quality by …

The Impact Of Immigration On Financial Markets, Jesse Baker

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

This paper studies the impact of immigration policy on financial markets. I estimate the cumulative abnormal returns surrounding two events the effective start date of the Immigration Act of 1990 and the implementation of the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) of Nicaragua and Honduras in 1999. Focusing on agriculture, construction, and manufacturing firms, I find that the CARs surrounding the events are indeed positive and significant, suggesting that the market anticipated growth among industries that are likely to hire Central American immigrants.

Actuarial Modeling And Analysis Of The Hong Kong Life Annuity Scheme, Koon Shing Kwong, Wai-Sum Chan, Johnny Siu-Hang Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation (HKMC) Limited, which was established in March 1997 and is wholly owned by the government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, has a major mission to develop and provide different financial retirement instruments to Hong Kong residents to help address the income poverty of retirees. In June 2017, HKMC Annuity Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the HKMC was incorporated to implement a new life annuity scheme which would be launched by mid-2018 to cater for the needs of cash-rich Hong Kong old age residents. The objective of the scheme is to provide an additional …

Given Today's New Wave Of Protectionsim, Is Antitrust Law The Last Hope For Preserving A Free Global Economy Or Another Nail In Free Trade's Coffin?, Allison Murray

Loyola of Los Angeles International and Comparative Law Review

No abstract provided.

Estimation Of Multivariate Asset Models With Jumps, Angela Loregian, Laura Ballotta, Gianluca Gianluca Fusai, Marcos Fabricio Perez

Business Faculty Publications

We propose a consistent and computationally efficient two-step methodology for the estimation of multidimensional non-Gaussian asset models built using Levy processes. The proposed framework allows for dependence between assets and different tail behaviors and jump structures for each asset. Our procedure can be applied to portfolios with a large number of assets as it is immune to estimation dimensionality problems. Simulations show good finite sample properties and significant efficiency gains. This method is especially relevant for risk management purposes such as, for example, the computation of portfolio Value at Risk and intra-horizon Value at Risk, as we show in detail …

M&A Performance: Market’S Initial Reaction As An Unbiased Indicator Of Post-Acquisition Performance, Nikolaos Papageorgiou

CMC Senior Theses

This paper investigates the reliability of the stock market’s initial reaction to M&A announcements as a predictor of actual post-acquisition performance. The two prevailing methods for evaluating M&A performance are event studies (stock market-based measures) and accounting-based measures. The present study combines these two performance evaluation approaches in a single empirical examination. Both the post-merger buy-and-hold abnormal returns and changes in ROA are used as actual post-acquisition performance variables. The acquirer’s cumulative abnormal return (CAR) around the announcement is used as the market predictor variable. An econometric model is employed to test the predictive power of the announcement-period CAR on …