Econometrics Commons^™

Banking Sector Credit And Economic Growth In Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation, Aniekan O. Akpansung, Sikiru J. Babalola

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The paper examines the relationship between banking sector credit and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1970-2008. The causal links between the pairs of variables of interest were established using Granger causality test while a Two-Stage Least Squares (TSLS) estimation technique was used for the regression models. The results of Granger causality test show evidence of unidirectional causal relationship from GDP to private sector credit (PSC) and from industrial production index (IND) to GDP. Estimated regression models indicate that private sector credit impacts positively on economic growth over the period of coverage in this study. However, lending (interest) rate …

Neither The Washington Nor Beijing Consensus: Developmental Models To Fit African Realities And Cultures, Sanusi L. Sanusi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

No abstract provided.

Banking Reform And Its Impact On The Nigerian Economy, Sanusi L. Sanusi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

No abstract provided.

Dating The Timeline Of Financial Bubbles During The Subprime Crisis, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A new recursive regression methodology is introduced to analyze the bubble characteristics of various financial time series during the subprime crisis. The methods modify a technique proposed in Phillips, Wu, and Yu (2011) and provide a technology for identifying bubble behavior with consistent dating of their origination and collapse. The tests serve as an early warning diagnostic of bubble activity and a new procedure is introduced for testing bubble migration across markets. Three relevant financial series are investigated, including a financial asset price (a house price index), a commodity price (the crude oil price), and one bond price (the spread …

Specification Sensitivity In Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing For Explosive Behavior, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shu-Ping Shi, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Right-tailed unit root tests have proved promising for detecting exuberance in economic and financial activities. Like left-tailed tests, the limit theory and test performance are sensitive to the null hypothesis and the model specification used in parameter estimation. This paper aims to provide some empirical guidelines for the practical implementation of right-tailed unit root tests, focusing on the sup ADF test of Phillips, Wu and Yu (2011), which implements a right-tailed ADF test repeatedly on a sequence of forward sample recursions. We analyze and compare the limit theory of the sup ADF test under deferent hypotheses and model specifications. The …

The Impact Of Honor Codes And Perceptions Of Cheating On Academic Cheating Behaviors, Especially For Mba Bound Undergraduates, Heather M. O'Neill, Christian A. Pfeiffer

Business and Economics Faculty Publications

Researchers studying academic dishonesty in college often focus on demographic characteristics of cheaters and discuss changes in cheating trends over time. To predict cheating behavior, some researchers examine the costs and benefits of academic cheating, while others view campus culture and the role which honor codes play in affecting behavior. This paper develops a model of academic cheating based on three sets of incentives - moral, social and economic—and how they affect cheating behaviors. An on-line survey comprising 61 questions was administered to students from three liberal arts colleges in the USA in spring 2008, yielding 700 responses, with half …

Empirical Methods-A Review: With An Introduction To Data Mining And Machine Learning, Matt Bogard

Economics Faculty Publications

This presentation was part of a staff workshop focused on empirical methods and applied research. This includes a basic overview of regression with matrix algebra, maximum likelihood, inference, and model assumptions. Distinctions are made between paradigms related to classical statistical methods and algorithmic approaches. The presentation concludes with a brief discussion of generalization error, data partitioning, decision trees, and neural networks.

Industrial Diversity And Economic Performance: A Spatial Analysis, Hoa Phu Duy Tran

College of Business: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

This study examines the linkage between industrial diversity and economic growth in the 48 contiguous states of the United States.  The period of analysis is 1992 through 2009.  Five diversity indices are considered and economic growth is measured as the growth rate of nonfarm earnings.  Other variables thought to influence economic growth are included in the analysis.  They are the growth rate of nonfarm employment, capital, and farm earnings.  Tests for the endogeneity of variables are conducted and the need for instrumental variable estimation methods is demonstrated.

First, I consider multivariate model that relates nonfarm earnings growth to the diversity …

Target Industry Study: An Empirical Analysis Of Intertemporal Trends In Regional Industrial Base Composition, David M. Smith

Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects

This paper follows existing literature on local industrial conditions and agglomeration economies in an adapted shift-share framework. The purpose of this study is to develop a cost-efficient empirical model that meets the needs of local government in analyzing changes in industrial composition. The data for this model is obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) with nondisclosed data provided by the Virginia Employment Commission which is sorted by North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) 2-digit industrial sectors. The model developed in this paper identifies certain industrial sectors which exert significant influence on the …

Impact Of The Economic Downturn On Local Governments In South Carolina, William Tomes

Georgia Journal of Public Policy

Across the country local government revenues have decreased while operating costs such as fuel, materials, equipment, and health insurance costs have significantly increased. In addition to reduced revenues, interest earnings for city and county government investments are low. These factors combined have created a difficult financial arena in which local governments must operate. While economists are reporting signs of economic recovery, many city and county budgets are just now feeling the full brunt of the economic downturn that began in 2008. On a daily basis, news media nationwide report local governments addressing budget deficits by cutting services, eliminating positions, or …

Explosive Behavior In The 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?, Peter C. B. Phillips, Yangru Wu, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A recursive test procedure is suggested that provides a mechanism for testing explosive behavior, date stamping the origination and collapse of economic exuberance, and providing valid confidence intervals for explosive growth rates. The method involves the recursive implementation of a right-side unit root test and a sup test, both of which are easy to use in practical applications, and some new limit theory for mildly explosive processes. The test procedure is shown to have discriminatory power in detecting periodically collapsing bubbles, thereby overcoming a weakness in earlier applications of unit root tests for economic bubbles. An empirical application to the …

Running Backs In The Nfl Draft And Nfl Combine: Can Performance Be Predicted?, Chris Blees

CMC Senior Theses

Berri and Simmons (2009) investigate the relationship between the NFL Combine and the NFL Draft. They find that a quarterback’s performance in the Combine can have a significant impact on that player’s draft position. However, they find that no known aspect of a quarterback before they are drafted is an indicator of success in the NFL. I examine if these relationships exist for the Running Back position. I find similar results to Berri and Simmons: that performance in the Combine does have an effect on that player’s draft position, but that no aspect of a running back’s pre-draft characteristics can …

Take Me Out Of The Ball Game: The Efficacy Of Public Subsidies In The Success Of Professional Sports Stadiums, Jonah Chodosh

CMC Senior Theses

This paper weights the relative advantages of multiple factors that lead to the success of professional sports stadiums in major markets, though a discussion of the arguments for and against public subsidies towards these projects. Using a logit statistical model, the paper determines that the two factors determining the highest likelihood of venue success include multiple tenants and access to mass transit. The analysis demonstrates that public subsidies towards stadiums don’t generate sufficient economic returns, and that successful stadiums can be created without using taxpayer funds.

Bayesian Analysis Of Structural Credit Risk Models With Microstructure Noises, Shirley J. Huang, Jun Yu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In this paper a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique is developed for the Bayesian analysis of structural credit risk models with microstructure noises. The technique is based on the general Bayesian approach with posterior computations performed by Gibbs sampling. Simulations from the Markov chain, whose stationary distribution converges to the posterior distribution, enable exact finite sample inferences of model parameters. The exact inferences can easily be extended to latent state variables and any nonlinear transformation of state variables and parameters, facilitating practical credit risk applications. In addition, the comparison of alternative models can be based on devian information criterion …

Corporate Transparency, Private Information And Stock Price Synchronicity., Mohammed Sharaf Mohsen Shaiban

Student Works (2010-2019)

The issue of stock price synchronicity as a measure of stock price informativeness has recently attracted much research attention. Using cross-country data from 40 countries, this study investigates the relationship between corporate transparency (measured by reporting timeliness, financial analyst following and credibility of disclosures) and stock price synchronicity. In addition, this study investigates the moderating effects of reporting timeliness on the relationship between financial analyst and credibility of disclosures and stock price synchronicity. Specifically, it examines whether the relationship between financial analysts and disclosure credibility and stock price synchronicity is stronger or weaker given the range of timeliness of financial …

A Study Of Price Evolution In Online Toy Market, Zhenlin Yang, Lydia L Gan, Fang-Fang Tang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study and contrast pricing and price evolution of online only (Dotcom) and online branch of multi-channel retailers (OBMCRs) based on two panel data sets collected from online toy markets. Panel data regression analyses reveal several interesting empirical results: over time, OBMCRs and Dotcoms charge similar prices on average but Dotcoms significantly increase their shipping costs that eventually drive the overall average price of Dotcoms higher than that of OBMCRs. Price dispersions of both types of retailers are persistent. The price dispersion of OBMCRs is higher than that of Dotcoms at the beginning and does not change much over time, …

Determinants Of Foreign Direct Investment In Services Sector Of Pakistan: An Econometrics Approach, Muhammad Zahid Awan, Khair Uz Zaman, Bakhtiar Khan

Business Review

This study examines the key determinants of FDI inflows in Services sector of Pakistan, using time series data (quarterly) for the period of 1996Q1-2008Q4. To check the stationarity of the data, ADF test has been applied. Co-integration and Error Correction Model (ECM) is used for estimation of the data. This study found that Gross Domestic Fixed Capital formation (GDFCF), Inflation Rate(INF), Current Account Balance(CAB), Exchange Rate (ER), and Per Capita Income (PC) are main factors of FDI inflows in services sector of Pakistan. This study reveals that GDFCF, INF and PC are found statistically significant with positive signs. CAB and …

Macroeconomics Stress Testing On Malaysia Commercial Banks' Credit Portfolios., Foo Chii Shia

Student Works (2010-2019)

In the research paper, quarterly data on Non-performing Loan (NPL) for commercial banks in Malaysia over the time period of quarter 1, 1998 to quarter 4, 2009 together with 5 macroeconomic indicators i.e. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (KLCI), Unemployment rate and House Property Index are collected to form a credit risk model. The estimated model is employed to analyse banking credit risks conditional on current macroeconomic conditions. Stepwise multiple regression method has been used which to select the useful subsets of variables and to evaluate the order of importance of variables. Furthermore, …

Forex Market Behaviour : Application Of High Frequency Data., Tan Heng Kiat

Student Works (2010-2019)

The huge and high frequency trading in foreign exchange market creates the need for an analytical method that can provide a view on the volatility. Traditional methods such as GARCH are proven to have limitations when applied to high frequency data, such as those generated in foreign exchange market.In this thesis, wavelet method is applied to high frequency data of EURO/USD, GBP/USD and YEN/USD currency pairs and of one minute resolution. The period of this behavioral study is from one hour before 1pm GMT to one hour after 1pm GMT for every Mondays from June 2008 to Dec 2008. The …

Trusts Versus Corporations: An Empirical Analysis Of Competing Organizational Forms, A. Joseph Warburton

College of Law - Faculty Scholarship

This paper studies the effects of organizational form on managerial behavior and firm performance, from an empirical perspective. Managers of trusts are subject to stricter fiduciary responsibilities than managers of corporations. This paper examines the ramifications empirically, by exploiting data generated by a change in British regulations in the 1990s that allowed mutual funds to organize as either a trust or a corporation. I find evidence that trust law is effective in curtailing opportunistic behavior, as trust managers charge significantly lower fees than their observationally equivalent corporate counterparts. Trust managers also incur lower risk. However, evidence suggests that trust managers …

An Economic Impact Study Of The "Boom" Period Of Baseball Stadium Redevelopment, Emily Mcnab

CMC Senior Theses

The intention of this study is to analyze the economic impact of redeveloped Major League Baseball stadiums opened between 1991 and 2004. Using two empirical models, including an event study, this impact analysis captures the economic conditions of the cities during the opening year of the stadium, as well as the prior conditions leading up to the opening of the stadium, along with any lingering effects or gradual changes in conditions. The impact was measured in relation to the Metropolitan Statistical Areas corresponding to the 18 ballparks included, specifically looking at the impact on employment rates and per capita personal …

Dating The Timeline Of Financial Bubbles During The Subprime Crisis, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A new recursive regression methodology is introduced to analyze the bubble characteristics of various financial time series during the subprime crisis. The methods modify a technique proposed in Phillips, Wu, and Yu (2011) and provide a technology for identifying bubble behavior with consistent dating of their origination and collapse. The tests serve as an early warning diagnostic of bubble activity and a new procedure is introduced for testing bubble migration across markets. Three relevant financial series are investigated, including a financial asset price (a house price index), a commodity price (the crude oil price), and one bond price (the spread …

Bayesian Analysis Of Structural Credit Risk Models With Microstructure Noises, Shirley J. Huang, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique is developed for the Bayesian analysis of structural credit risk models with microstructure noises. The technique is based on the general Bayesian approach with posterior computations performed by Gibbs sampling. Simulations from the Markov chain, whose stationary distribution converges to the posterior distribution, enable exact ¯nite sample inferences of model parameters. The exact inferences can easily be extended to latent state variables and any nonlinear transformation of state variables and parameters, facilitating practical credit risk applications. In addition, the comparison of alternative models can be based on deviance information criterion …

Are Credit Unions In Ecuador Achieving Economies Of Scale?, Nick A. Marchio

Economics Honors Projects

This study tests the assertion that membership growth in credit unions is constrained by their unique structural features, such as their non-profit mission and member-based ownership. Although these features enhance inclusiveness, existing theory suggest that they work against efficiency when membership grows too diffuse. To address this issue, this study uses a model that takes into account existing theory on constrained-optimization in credit unions and theory on the adverse effects of diffuse ownership. Using data on 36 public credit unions in Ecuador, the empirical analysis finds evidence that credit unions can achieve economies of scale despite their problematic structural features. …

Using High-Frequency Transaction Data To Estimate The Probability Of Informed Trading, Anthony S. Tay, Christopher Ting, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitchell Warachka

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper applies the asymmetric autoregressive conditional duration (AACD) model of Bauwens and Giot (2003) to estimate the probability of informed trading (PIN) using irregularly spaced transaction data. We model trade direction (buy versus sell orders) and the duration between trades jointly. Unlike the Easley, Hvidkjaer, and O'Hara (2002) approach, which uses the aggregate numbers of daily buy and sell orders to estimate PIN, our methodology allows for interactions between consecutive buy-sell orders and accounts for the duration between trades and the volume of trade. We extend the Easley–Hvidkjaer–O'Hara framework by allowing the probabilities of good news and bad news …

Market Efficiency At The Derby: A Real Horse Race, Steven D. Dolvin, Mark K. Pyles

Scholarship and Professional Work - Business

Using race data from each Kentucky Derby from 1920 to 2005, we examine whether the horse wagering market is efficient. Most prior studies in this arena test potential betting strategies that rely on posted odds, generally finding that it is extremely difficult to devise and implement any consistently successful wager (i.e., market efficiency). We extend these studies by examining underlying determinants of posted race odds, specifically focusing on the experience of auxiliary members (e.g., jockey, breeder and trainer) associated with each entrant. We find that past Derby experience is an important determinant of posted odds and that the odds-making system …

Moving Window Unit Root Test: Locating Real Estate Price Bubbles In Seoul Apartment Market, Shuping Shi

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Bubbles are characterized by rapid expansion followed by a contraction. Evans (1991) shows that stationarity tests suggested by Hamilton and Whiteman (1985) and Diba and Grossman (1988) are incapable of detecting periodically collapsing bubbles. Phillips, Wu, and Yu (2006) advanced the forward recursive unit root test which improves the power significantly in the presence of periodically collapsing bubbles. In this paper, we consider rolling window unit root test with a pre-selected optimum window. A combining use of conventional unit root test and forward recursive unit root test is suggested from the results of power comparison. Furthermore, we apply those three …

Regional Trade Agreements Revisited, Hui Chin Tan

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

The gravity model is a workhorse for econometric studies of the impact of regional trade agreements (RTAs). Despite its initial lack of theoretical basis, the model has been successfully derived from various trade theories. The latest theoretical derivation by Anderson and van Wincoop (2003) reveals that prior gravity studies have made the critical error of omitting the multilateral resistance variable, which results in biased estimates. Other recent studies have highlighted empirical issues with the commonly used procedure of log-linearizing the gravity model and estimating the parameters using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression. Silva and Tenreyro (2006) point out that this …

Classified Boards And Firm Value, Michael D. Frakes

Faculty Scholarship

Classified boards constitute one of the most potent takeover defenses for U.S. firms today. However, as with takeover defenses more generally, economic theory offers an ambiguous prediction as to the effect that classified boards have on bottom-line firm value. A resolution of this ambiguity will require sound and convincing empirical methodology. In an effort to address limitations in the existing empirical literature, this article approaches the relationship between corporate governance and firm value while taking various measures to account for unobserved sources of heterogeneity across firms. Using the instrumental variables model developed by Hausman and Taylor, I find evidence of …

Modeling Transaction Data Of Trade Direction And Estimation Of Probability Of Informed Trading, Anthony S. Tay, Christopher Ting, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitch Warachka

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper implements the Asymmetric AutoregressiveConditional Duration (AACD) model of Bauwens and Giot (2003) to analyzeirregularly spaced transaction data of trade direction, namely buy versus sellorders. We examine the influence of lagged transaction duration, lagged volumeand lagged trade direction on transaction duration and direction. Our resultsare applied to estimate the probability of informed trading (PIN) based on theEasley, Hvidkjaer and O’Hara (2002) framework. Unlike the Easley-Hvidkjaer-O’Hara model, which uses the daily aggregate number of buy and sellorders, the AACD model makes full use of transaction data and allows forinteractions between buy and sell orders.