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Romania -- Systematic Country Diagnostic: Background Note-Agriculture (English), Edinaldo Tebaldi, Anatol Gobjila

Economics Faculty Journal Articles

Agriculture plays a significant socio-economic role in Romania and its transformation to a modern, vibrant, and market-oriented sector is central to fighting poverty, promoting social inclusion, and reducing the urban/rural development divide. Most of Romania's poor live in rural areas and earn their living from agriculture or agriculture-related activities. In 2016, eight out of ten people who were at risk of poverty or social exclusion lived either in rural areas or in towns and suburbs that were predominately rural. Using microdata from the 2013 Household Budget Survey (HBS), this report finds that individuals living in rural areas are 16.5 percent …

Common Values, Unobserved Heterogeneity, And Endogenous Entry In U.S. Offshore Oil Lease Auctions, Giovanni Compiani, Philip A. Haile, Marcelo Sant'anna

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

In a "common values" environment, some market participants have private information relevant to others' assessments of their own valuations or costs. Economic theory shows that this type of informational asymmetry can have important implications for market performance and market design. Yet even for the classic example of an oil lease auction, formal evidence on the presence and strength of common values has been limited by the problem of auction-level unobserved heterogeneity that is likely to affect both participation in an auction and bidders' willingness to pay. Here we develop an empirical approach for first-price sealed bid auctions with affiliated values, …

Common Values, Unobserved Heterogeneity, And Endogenous Entry In U.S. Offshore Oil Lease Auctions, Giovanni Compiani, Philip A. Haile, Marcelo Sant'anna

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

An oil lease auction is the classic example motivating a common values model. However, formal testing for common values has been hindered by unobserved auction-level heterogeneity, which is likely to affect both participation in an auction and bidders' willingness to pay. We develop and apply an empirical approach for first-price sealed bid auctions with affiliated values, unobserved heterogeneity, and endogenous bidder entry. The approach also accommodates spatial dependence and sample selection. Following Haile, Hong and Shum (2003), we specify a reduced form for bidder entry outcomes and rely on an instrument for entry. However, we relax their control function requirements …

Oligopoly Price Discrimination: The Role Of Inventory Controls, James D. Dana Jr., Kevin R. Williams

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Inventory controls, used most notably by airlines, are sales limits assigned to individual prices. While typically viewed as a tool to manage demand uncertainty, we argue that inventory controls can also facilitate intertemporal price discrimination in oligopoly. In our model, competing firms first choose quantity and then choose prices in a series of advance-purchase markets. When demand becomes less elastic over time, as is the case in airline markets, a monopolist can easily price discriminate; however, we show that oligopoly firms generally cannot. We also show that using inventory controls allows oligopoly firms to set increasing prices, regardless of whether …

Extrapolation Using Selection And Moral Hazard Heterogeneity From Within The Oregon Health Insurance Experiment, Amanda E. Kowalski

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

I aim to shed light on why emergency room (ER) utilization increased following the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment but decreased following a Massachusetts policy. To do so, I unite the literatures on insurance and treatment effects. Under an MTE model that assumes no more than the LATE assumptions, comparisons across always takers, compliers, and never takers can inform the impact of polices that expand and contract coverage. Starting from the Oregon experiment as the “gold standard,” I make comparisons within Oregon and extrapolate my findings to Massachusetts. Within Oregon, I find adverse selection and heterogeneous moral hazard. Although previous enrollees …

Speculation And Price Indeterminacy In Financial Markets: An Experimental Study, Shinichi Hirota, Juergen Huber, Thomas Stöckl, Shyam Sunder

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

To explore how speculative trading influences prices in financial markets, we conduct a laboratory market experiment with speculating investors (who do not collect dividends and trade only for capital gains) and dividend-collecting investors. Moreover, we operate markets at two different levels of money supply. We find that in phases with only speculating investors present (i) price deviations from fundamentals are larger; (ii) prices are more volatile; (iii) mispricing increases with the number of transfers until maturity; and (iv) speculative trading pushes prices upward (downward) when the supply of money is high (low). These results suggest that controlling the money supply …

The Impact Of Microfinance On Poverty Reduction In Egypt: An Empirical Study, Hala Elhadidi

Business Administration

Microfinance has become a critical tool in credit markets for poverty reduction and socioeconomic development. Yet its impact is still questioned and varies from one country to another and from urban to rural areas. This article examines the role of Egyptian microfinance on household income. A cross-sectional survey interviewed 780 established and new clients in Greater Cairo and rural areas in Egypt. The stratified random method was used to collect the data from urban and rural districts. The findings, using multinomial logistics, reveal that microfinance had a positive impact on the household income of women borrowers who spent three years …

Oligopoly Price Discrimination: The Role Of Inventory Controls, James D. Dana Jr., Kevin R. Williams

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Inventory controls, used most notably by airlines, are sales limits assigned to individual prices. While typically viewed as a tool to manage demand uncertainty, we argue that inventory controls also facilitate intertemporal price discrimination. In our model, competing firms first choose quantity and then choose prices in a series of advance-purchase markets. When demand becomes more inelastic over time, as in the airline and hotel markets, a monopolist can easily price discriminate; however, we show that oligopoly firms generally cannot. Inventory controls let firms set increasing prices regardless of whether or not demand is uncertain.

Speculation And Price Indeterminacy In Financial Markets: An Experimental Study, Shinichi Hirota, Juergen Huber, Thomas Stöckl, Shyam Sunder

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

To explore how speculative trading influences prices in financial markets we conduct a laboratory market experiment with speculating investors (who do not collect dividends and trade only for capital gains) as well as dividend-collecting investors. We find that in markets with only speculating investors (i) price deviations from fundamentals are larger; (ii) prices are more volatile; (iii) the “mispricing” is likely to be strategic and not irrational; (iv) mispricing increases with the number of transfers until maturity; and (v) speculative trading pushes prices upward (downward) when liquidity is high (low).

Intertemporal Price Discrimination In Sequential Quantity-Price Games, James D. Dana Jr., Kevin R. Williams

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper develops an oligopoly model in which firms first choose capacity and then compete in prices in a series of advance-purchase markets. We show the existence of multiple sales opportunities creates strong competitive forces that prevent firms from utilizing intertemporal price discrimination. We then show that intertemporal price discrimination is possible, but only when firms adopt inventory controls (sales limit restrictions) and demand becomes more inelastic over time. Therefore, in addition to being useful to manage demand uncertainty, we show that inventory controls are also a tool to soften price competition. We discuss model extensions, including product differentiation, aggregate …

A Look At Inequality, Workers’ Rights, And Race, William E. Spriggs

Minnesota Journal of Law & Inequality

No abstract provided.

Foreign Exchange Management : Nigeria's Experience With The Unholy Trinity, Moses K. Tule

Bullion

Foreign exchange management is a major component of monetary policy in many central banks in developing and emerging market economies. This is because maintaining price stability is a key mandate of many central banks in ensuring overall macroeconomic stability. An effective exchange rate policy compliments the objectives of monetary policy. The relationship between monetary policy and the exchange rate can be explained in three different channels namely; income channel, price channel and interest rate channel. This are what the article will deliberate on from Nigeria's perspective.

Exploring Startup Funding For Small Business Sector Growth, Job Creation And Reduction Of Youth Unemployment In Nigeria, Christian O. Akaeze, Nana A. Akaeze

Bullion

Unemployment generates welfare loss from lowered output, income, and wellbeing which impedes social progress in a nation. Youth unemployment is a major problem currently confronting Nigeria (Nwogwugwu & Irechukwu, 2015). However, in developing economies jobs are created through small businesses. Nevertheless, unemployed youths with small business ideas experience financial constraints and lack access to startup capital. The intent of this study was to explore the experiences of some owners who succeeded with small business initiatives despite challenges from lack of access to formal and informal sources of capital. Semi-structured interviews with 15 successful small business owners located in Lagos who …

The Relevance Of Garch-Family Models In Forecasting Nigerian Oil Price Volatility, Garzali Muhammed, Bashir Umar Faruk Ph.D

Bullion

This study aims at investigating the relevancy of GARCH - family models in measuring the Nigeria bonny light crude oil price volatility. The study also compares the forecasting power of different GARCH models with the aim of identifying the best forecasting model. The study uses the best GARCH family model to predict the future bonny light oil prices. The paper is structured into five sections. First section is introduction and second section is the literature review. The third section highlight the methodology while section four analyses the result and gives discussions of findings. Conclusion and recommendations are in the last …

Renewable Energy Consumption And Economic Growth In Nigeria: A Co-Integration And Granger Causality Approach, Kingsley Imandojemu, Akinlosotu Nathaniel Toyosi

Bullion

The International Energy Agency (2017) reports affirmed that one in five people across the globe lack access to electricity and, about 2.8 billion people still lack access to clean cooking. The expected switch to liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), natural gas and electricity remains unimpressive. One-third of the world's population –2.5 billion people – still rely on the traditional use of solid biomass while another 120 million people cook with kerosene and 170 million with coal. Household air pollution from these sources is currently linked to 2.8 million premature deaths per year, and several billion hours are spent collecting firewood for …

An Overview Of The Cheque Payments System In Nigeria, Onyeka Samuel Okonkwo

Bullion

This paper is designed to examine critically the modern trends in the cheque payments system in Nigeria. In the light of this, the paper is divided into nine parts. The second part of the paper examines the concepts of payment , clearing and settlement. The evolution of cheque clearing in Nigeria is examined in part three. The part four presents the cheque standard in Nigeria. The part five gives the synopsis of cheque payment in Nigeria while the cheque truncation system(CTS) and its benefits and challenges are examined in part six and part seven respectively. The paper concludes with recommendations …

Demystifying The Microeconomic Foundation Of Economic Development In Nigeria: Evidence From Ease Of Doing Business Index, Imandojemu Kingsley

Bullion

The welfare of the citizenry in a modern economy depends critically on the state of the consumer behaviour of the household and the production decisions of business firms. Despite the efforts of the monetary authorities in supporting the micro-components of the economy and invariably improving the Ease of Doing Business in the country, very little has been done to evaluate their appropriateness in stimulating economic development. Against this backdrop, this paper critically examines the impact of supporting the microeconomic units on economic development in Nigeria.

Upward Mobility In The American Mountain West, Richard Reeves

Brookings Mountain West Publications

Upward economic and social mobility is an intrinsic element of American society. Data from the Equality of Opportunity Project (EOP) demonstrates that upward mobility is a critical issue for our nation’s metros. An analysis of Mountain West metros and the performances of colleges and universities in this region reveal how the differing economic, demographic, and social characteristics affect mobility. This brief explores upward mobility rates, measures of diversity, levels of domestic and foreign migration, and students’ family household income and their eventual individual incomes. The comparison of postsecondary institutions in Mountain West metros serves as a microcosm to better understand …

Can Islamic Banking And Finance Spur Financial Inclusion? Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa, Musa Abdu, Adamu Jibir, Salihu Abdullahi, Aliyu A. Rabi'u

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examined the effect of introduction of Islamic banking and finance on financial inclusion in Sub-Sahara Africa (SSA). To achieve this objective, the study applied Probit, Tobit and Juhn-Murphy-Pierce decomposition to estimate model of financial inclusion. The study used World Bank’s Global Financial inclusion index (Global Findex) dataset of 2015. The findings revealed that the introduction of Islamic banking and finance system in some Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) countries in SSA enhanced financial inclusion in the sub-region. The study also uncovers that households from OIC with Islamic banking and finance are more likely to be financially included than …

Impact Of Energy Consumption On Poverty Reduction In Africa, Innocent Okwanya, Patricia O. Abah

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the impact of energy consumption on poverty reduction in a panel of 12 African countries over a period of 1981-2014. Using the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) method, the study shows that a long-run negative relationship exists between energy consumption and poverty level, which underscores the importance of energy in poverty reduction in the selected African countries. The result also indicates that other variables such as capital stock and political stability have significant effect on poverty implying that these factors play critical role in reducing poverty. Furthermore, the granger causality test shows that a short-run unidirectional …

Modeling Volatility Persistence And Asymmetry With Exogenous Breaks In The Nigerian Stock Returns, David A. Kuhe

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the volatility persistence and asymmetry with exogenous breaks in Nigerian stock market. The study utilizes daily closing quotations of stock prices from the Nigerian stock exchange for the period 3rd July, 1999 to 12th June, 2017. Standard symmetric GARCH (1,1), asymmetric EGARCH (1,1) and GJR-GARCH (1,1) models with and without structural breaks were employed to measure shocks persistence and leverage effects in the presence of varying distributional assumptions. The empirical findings showed high persistence of shocks in the return series for the estimated models. However, the study found significant reduction in shocks persistence when structural breaks were …

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 2, Number 7, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Adam G. Walke, Omar Solís, Esmeralda P. Muñiz

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

Doxxing To Deter: Citizen Activism On Social Media, Taylor Carriere, Kristen Walker, Kimberly Legocki

School of Economics and Business Administration Faculty Works

No abstract provided.

Citizen Activism: Anger And Persistence In #Charlottesville, Kimberly Legocki, Kristen Walker, Taylor Carriere

School of Economics and Business Administration Faculty Works

No abstract provided.

Trust Mechanisms, Cultural Difference And Poverty Alleviation, Lihua Guo

CLCWeb: Comparative Literature and Culture

In her paper "Trust Mechanisms, Cultural Differences and Poverty Alleviation" Lihua Guo explores how Grameen Bank, which originated in Bangladesh, can effectively reduce regional poverty. The basic means based on a trust mechanism include the provision of loans only to women, five-person teams, a system of conference centers, personal financial management and weekly repayment with golden membership awards. Although the Grameen mode presents different practice effects around the world due to cultural differences, the fundamental cause for success is the respect showed to human beings by the model, and a tailored program that includes rather than excludes. The Grameen model …

Intertemporal Price Discrimination In Sequential Quantity-Price Games, James D. Dana Jr., Kevin R. Williams

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

When firms first choose capacity and then compete on prices in a series of advance-purchase markets, we show that strong competitive forces prevent firms from utilizing intertemporal price discrimination. We then enrich the model by allowing firms to use inventory controls, or sales limits assigned to individual prices. We show that firms will choose to set inventory controls in order to engage in intertemporal price discrimination, but only if demand becomes more inelastic over time. Thus, although typically viewed as a tool to manage demand uncertainty, we show that inventory controls can also facilitate price discrimination in oligopoly.

Understanding Temporal Aggregation Effects On Kurtosis In Financial Indices, Offer Lieberman, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Indices of financial returns typically display sample kurtosis that declines towards the Gaussian value 3 as the sampling interval increases. This paper uses stochastic unit root (STUR) and continuous time analysis to explain the phenomenon. Limit theory for the sample kurtosis reveals that STUR specifications provide two sources of excess kurtosis, both of which decline with the sampling interval. Limiting kurtosis is shown to be random and is a functional of the limiting price process. Using a continuous time version of the model under no-drift, local drift, and drift inclusions, we suggest a new continuous time kurtosis measure for financial …

Intertemporal Price Discrimination In Sequential Quantity-Price Games, James D. Dana Jr., Kevin R. Williams

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper develops an oligopoly model in which firms first choose capacity and then compete in prices in a series of advance-purchase markets. We show the existence of multiple sales opportunities creates strong competitive forces that prevent firms from utilizing intertemporal price discrimination. We then show that intertemporal price discrimination is possible, but only when firms adopt inventory controls (sales limit restrictions) and demand becomes more inelastic over time. Therefore, in addition to being useful to manage demand uncertainty, inventory controls are also a tool to soften price competition. We also discuss model extensions, including product differentiation, aggregate demand uncertainty, …

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 2, Number 6, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Adam G. Walke, Omar Solís, Esmeralda P. Muñiz

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

Dispersion And Uncertainty In Density Forecasts: Evidence From Surveys Of Professional Forecasters, You Li

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation studies patterns of dispersion in density forecasts as reported in surveys of professional forecasters. We pay special attention to the role of uncertainty in explaining dispersion in professional forecasters’ density forecasts of real output growth and inflation. We also consider the relationship between survey design and forecaster behavior. The last chapter describes future research exploring the characteristics of forecaster expectations using probability integral transforms.

As a starting point, chapter one gives a summary of the literature that tries to answer, using data from survey of forecasters, the following three key questions: Why do forecasters disagree? What do density …