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Articles 541 - 570 of 3476
Full-Text Articles in Economics
Lessons Learned: Matthew Feldman, Mary Anne Chute Lynch
Lessons Learned: Matthew Feldman, Mary Anne Chute Lynch
Journal of Financial Crises
Matthew Feldman was the chief legal advisor to the Department of the Treasury on the Obama administration’s Task Force on the Auto Industry, which was established in 2009 and charged with providing aid to Chrysler and General Motors (GM), and later other entities, to avoid their disorderly failure and the loss of a million or more jobs. The Auto Task Force worked intensively throughout 2009 to swiftly negotiate with corporate leadership, unions, investors, and other stakeholders of the two manufacturers to design an orderly restructuring that would put the companies on a path to stability. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner recognized …
Lessons Learned: Sadiq Malik, Mary Anne Chute Lynch
Lessons Learned: Sadiq Malik, Mary Anne Chute Lynch
Journal of Financial Crises
Sadiq Malik was a member of the Obama administration’s Task Force on the Auto Industry, which was established in 2009 and charged with providing aid to Chrysler and General Motors, and later to other entities, to avoid their disorderly failure and the loss of a million or more jobs. The Auto Task Force worked intensively throughout 2009 to swiftly negotiate with the corporate leadership, unions, investors, and other stakeholders of the two manufacturers, to design an orderly restructuring that would put the companies on a path to stability. Malik, working for the Auto Task Force, helped take General Motors through …
Lessons Learned: Ron Bloom, Mary Anne Chute Lynch
Lessons Learned: Ron Bloom, Mary Anne Chute Lynch
Journal of Financial Crises
Ron Bloom served as senior adviser to Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner on President Barack Obama’s Task Force on the Automotive Industry and as assistant to the president for manufacturing policy (2009–2011). As senior adviser on the Auto Task Force team, Bloom helped lead the restructuring of General Motors and Chrysler LLC. Subsequently, he advised the Obama administration with policy development and strategic planning to revitalize the manufacturing sector. Bloom brought to Treasury his unique experience working with organized labor (including the United Steelworkers Union, United Auto Workers, the Teamsters, the Air Line Pilots Association), and in the investment …
Lessons Learned: Brian Stoker, Steven H. Kasoff, Matthew A. Lieber
Lessons Learned: Brian Stoker, Steven H. Kasoff, Matthew A. Lieber
Journal of Financial Crises
Brian Stoker served in Merrill Lynch’s structured credit division for seven years, producing and trading asset-backed securities (ABS). In 2005, Stoker moved to Citigroup as a director of ABS CDO (collateralized debt obligation) and CLO (collateralized loan obligation) structuring. After the financial crisis, Stoker was an analyst at Carlson Capital for three years. In 2011, he joined StormHarbour Securities, serving as a managing director until 2018. From 2019 to 2021, he was director of securitization at Korth Direct Mortgage. Presently, Stoker is a licensed real estate agent in Miami. This Lessons Learned summary is based on an interview with Stoker.
Lessons Learned: Eric Kolchinsky, Steven H. Kasoff, Matthew A. Lieber
Lessons Learned: Eric Kolchinsky, Steven H. Kasoff, Matthew A. Lieber
Journal of Financial Crises
Eric Kolchinsky served as managing director of ratings for ABS CDOs (asset-backed security collateralized debt obligations) at Moody’s Investor Services from 2005 to 2007. Kolchinsky started his career in structured finance with stints at Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch. He joined Moody’s in 2000 as vice president for credit. In 2007, after Kolchinsky raised questions concerning the ratings of new deals in light of subprime downgrades, Moody’s removed him from his client-facing position. Kolchinsky supervised methodology for structured finance valuations at Moody’s Analytics for two years, before Moody’s suspended him altogether in 2009. Separated from Moody’s, Kolchinsky testified before Congress …
Lessons Learned: Chris Ricciardi, Matthew A. Lieber, Steven H. Kasoff
Lessons Learned: Chris Ricciardi, Matthew A. Lieber, Steven H. Kasoff
Journal of Financial Crises
Chris Ricciardi was a CDO pioneer who built the structured products units at CS First Boston and Merrill Lynch before moving to the asset management side. Ricciardi began his career structuring novel fixed-income securities at Prudential. At CS First Boston and Merrill, he catapulted each investment bank’s lagging unit into the top of the league tables for CDO (collateralized debt obligation) issuance. He was CEO of Cohen & Co. from 2006 to 2011, when he left to co-found investment management firm Mead Park Management. A graduate of the University of Richmond with an MBA from the Wharton School of the …
Lessons Learned: Sohail Khan, Matthew A. Lieber, Steven H. Kasoff
Lessons Learned: Sohail Khan, Matthew A. Lieber, Steven H. Kasoff
Journal of Financial Crises
Sohail Khan was managing director of fixed-income sales at Citigroup from 2005–09. Khan started his finance career in 1996, after completing his MBA at Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS). Khan gained broad experience in product structuring and sales of credit derivatives at Citigroup. As managing director during the subprime securitization boom and bust, he was involved with institutional sales of asset-backed securities (ABS) including collateralized debt obligations (CDOs); his clients were hedge funds, structured vehicles, and institutional buyers. In 2009, Khan left Citigroup to co-found StormHarbour Securities, a boutique investment bank he has headed since as managing principal. This …
Lessons Learned: Stephen King, Matthew A. Lieber, Steven H. Kasoff
Lessons Learned: Stephen King, Matthew A. Lieber, Steven H. Kasoff
Journal of Financial Crises
Stephen King started his career in finance at Bankers Trust in 1997 as a computer scientist with a business degree. He worked on structured credit transactions when credit derivatives were just being invented. In 2005, King joined Barclays’ structured credit group, where he managed a CDO (collateralized debt obligation) correlation desk that was different from standard dealer CDO units. In 2009, he launched C12 Capital Management to relieve Barclays of distressed subprime positions. Presently, King finances and builds luxury hotels as founder and CEO of Sardis Developments. This Lessons Learned summary is based on an interview with King.
Lessons Learned: Steven H. Kasoff, Matthew A. Lieber
Lessons Learned: Steven H. Kasoff, Matthew A. Lieber
Journal of Financial Crises
Steve Kasoff was employed at Elliott Management Corporation from 2003 until 2020. His responsibilities centered on developing the structured products and real estate groups at Elliott. He was made senior portfolio manager, a member of the firm’s management committee, and equity partner. Kasoff has extensive experience in the origination, trading, and management of structured products such as collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and mortgage-backed securities, including earlier posts at Deutsche Bank, Merrill Lynch, and Lehman Brothers. He earned his BA in economics from Yale College and his MBA in finance from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. In 2016, …
Lessons Learned: James Finkel, Steven H. Kasoff, Matthew A. Lieber
Lessons Learned: James Finkel, Steven H. Kasoff, Matthew A. Lieber
Journal of Financial Crises
A Wall Street veteran specializing in structured credit transactions, Jim Finkel was co-founder and director of the structured credit asset management firm Dynamic Credit Partners (DCP) from 2003 to 2009. Finkel started his career as a securities lawyer for the international law firm Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft LLP, before moving over to the banking side in 1992. He specialized in mortgage-backed securities and collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) for several firms, including Bear Stearns and Deutsche Bank, where he headed the London-based CLO group. In 2003, Finkel returned to New York to launch and run DCP. In 2010, he joined financial …
A Special Project: Inside The Cdo Machine, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Andrew Metrick
A Special Project: Inside The Cdo Machine, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Andrew Metrick
Journal of Financial Crises
In this issue of the Journal of Financial Crisis, we feature Inside the CDO Machine—a special undertaking recently completed under the auspices of the Yale Program on Financial Stability Lessons Learned Oral History Project by Steven H. Kasoff, a Yale School of Management Fellow and former equity partner and head of real estate and structured products investments at the Elliott Management Corp., a global hedge fund. For the project, Kasoff undertook a series of interviews with industry professionals to focus on one of the critical derivatives products of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), and how they …
Anatomy Of A Trade: The Making Of A Subprime Cdo, Steven H. Kasoff
Anatomy Of A Trade: The Making Of A Subprime Cdo, Steven H. Kasoff
Journal of Financial Crises
This article presents a short story, a sketch in eight parts of a single fictitious subprime collateralized debt obligation (CDO) transaction. The story is informed by expert interviews, documentary research, and the author’s firsthand experience.
Wall Street’S Subprime Debacle: Firsthand Accounts From Inside The Cdo Machine, Matthew A. Lieber, Steven H. Kasoff
Wall Street’S Subprime Debacle: Firsthand Accounts From Inside The Cdo Machine, Matthew A. Lieber, Steven H. Kasoff
Journal of Financial Crises
The observations, perceptions, and actions of participants in the subprime markets remain poorly documented and incompletely understood. Seeking to deepen our understanding, this study has produced seven interview summaries and one article telling the story of a hypothetical CDO deal. This article is organized in four parts. First, it presents our research questions and methods in relation to the existing knowledge on the topic. Second, it describes what we think are the study’s main contributions. Third, it previews the Lessons Learned summaries and interviews from each of the participants. And last, it identifies what we believe are some of the …
The Rescue Of The Us Auto Industry, Module G: The Auto Warranty Commitment Program, Benjamin Henken
The Rescue Of The Us Auto Industry, Module G: The Auto Warranty Commitment Program, Benjamin Henken
Journal of Financial Crises
On March 30, 2009, President Barack Obama announced a plan for government-funded protection of warranties on new vehicles sold by General Motors (GM) and Chrysler while the companies underwent restructuring. The initiative, which would become known as the Auto Warranty Commitment Program (AWCP), was intended to bolster consumer confidence by alleviating a major risk—the loss of warranty benefits—to consumers associated with the companies’ potential bankruptcies. Under the AWCP, GM and Chrysler established independent special purpose vehicles (SPVs) to which they transferred a combination of their own money along with funding they received from Treasury in the form of a loan. …
The Rescue Of The Us Auto Industry, Module Z:Overview, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Greg Feldberg, Alexander Nye, Andrew Metrick
The Rescue Of The Us Auto Industry, Module Z:Overview, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Greg Feldberg, Alexander Nye, Andrew Metrick
Journal of Financial Crises
In the fall of 2008, credit markets tightened amid a broader economic downturn that severely impacted the US auto industry, especially the three largest domestic manufacturers, General Motors (GM), Ford Motors, and Chrysler. The companies requested assistance from the government in a bid to stay afloat, but Congress declined to authorize funding. The Bush administration, however, provided bridge loans to GM and Chrysler under the Auto Industry Finance Program (AIFP), funded through the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP), to sustain them until the Obama administration was in place. Within months, the Obama administration decided that a speedy bankruptcy would be …
The Rescue Of The Us Auto Industry, Module E: Emergency Assistance For Chrysler Financial, Alexander Nye
The Rescue Of The Us Auto Industry, Module E: Emergency Assistance For Chrysler Financial, Alexander Nye
Journal of Financial Crises
In the fall of 2008, due to the confluence of the Global Financial Crisis and years of structural decline in the auto industry, Chrysler was nearing bankruptcy. Chrysler’s related finance company, Chrysler Financial, was also in dire straits. On December 19, 2008, President Bush announced the Automotive Industry Financing Program and that the US Treasury would extend Chrysler a $4 billion Bridge Loan to give the company time to prepare a viable restructuring plan. Two weeks later, the Treasury arranged $1.5 billion in low-interest financing for Chrysler Financial to fund the securitization of new consumer car loans and the facility …
The Rescue Of The Us Auto Industry, Module F: Auto Supplier Support Program, Riki Matsumoto
The Rescue Of The Us Auto Industry, Module F: Auto Supplier Support Program, Riki Matsumoto
Journal of Financial Crises
The Global Financial Crisis that began in 2007 intensified the decade-long malaise of two of the largest auto manufacturers in the US, General Motors and Chrysler. Their possible collapse was deemed to pose a systemic risk by the United States government. In response, the Department of the Treasury made efforts to provide support to the automotive industry through the Automotive Industry Financing Program (AIFP). As US auto parts suppliers experienced deteriorated automotive markets, disrupted manufacturer operations, and stressed credit markets, the Treasury announced the Auto Supplier Support Program (ASSP) on March 19, 2009, as an auxiliary program to the overall …
The Rescue Of The Us Auto Industry, Module C: Restructuring Chrysler Through Bankruptcy, Alexander Nye
The Rescue Of The Us Auto Industry, Module C: Restructuring Chrysler Through Bankruptcy, Alexander Nye
Journal of Financial Crises
In late 2008, due to the confluence of the financial crisis and years of structural decline in the auto industry, Chrysler was nearing bankruptcy. The US Treasury provided Chrysler’s owner, Chrysler Holding, with a $4 billion bridge loan and Chrysler’s related finance company, Chrysler Financial, with a $1.5 billion financing program under the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP). The government-led restructuring through bankruptcy involved the commitment of roughly $5 billion in debtor-in-possession (DIP) loans from the US Treasury and the Canadian government, under which the US Treasury ultimately lent $1.89 billion, using TARP funds, and Canada lent about $1 billion, …
The Rescue Of The Us Auto Industry, Module D: Emergency Assistance To Ally Financial (Formerly Gmac), Riki Matsumoto, Kaleb B. Nygaard
The Rescue Of The Us Auto Industry, Module D: Emergency Assistance To Ally Financial (Formerly Gmac), Riki Matsumoto, Kaleb B. Nygaard
Journal of Financial Crises
In 2008, GMAC was a $200 billion company providing financing to General Motors customers. As the Global Financial Crisis entered a critical stage in early 2008, GMAC’s funding strategy and liquidity position were adversely affected by the significant disruption in credit markets and the broader economic downturn. This reduced access to financing, which impacted GMAC’s ability to provide automotive wholesale inventory and retail financing to General Motors and Chrysler. In late 2008 and early 2009 GM and Chrysler underwent a complex restructuring process. To restore liquidity to GMAC’s auto finance business, the Federal Reserve agreed to expedite GMAC’s conversion to …
The Rescue Of The Us Auto Industry, Module A: Automotive Bridge Loans, Alexander Nye
The Rescue Of The Us Auto Industry, Module A: Automotive Bridge Loans, Alexander Nye
Journal of Financial Crises
In 2008, in the midst of the Global Financial Crisis, America’s Big Three automakers neared their breaking point. Two of them, General Motors (GM) and Chrysler, asked Congress for funding to prevent uncontrolled bankruptcies. Policymakers realized these uncontrolled bankruptcies would damage the manufacturing sector. Congress considered but failed to pass a framework conditioning short-term financing on the companies’ producing acceptable restructuring plans. With the companies warning that they could not survive the coming presidential transition, on December 19, 2008, President George W. Bush announced the Automotive Industry Financing Program (AIFP) under the authority of the Emergency Economic Stability Act (EESA) …
The Rescue Of The Us Auto Industry, Module B: Restructuring General Motors Through Bankruptcy, Kaleb B. Nygaard
The Rescue Of The Us Auto Industry, Module B: Restructuring General Motors Through Bankruptcy, Kaleb B. Nygaard
Journal of Financial Crises
As the Global Financial Crisis worsened in 2008, credit markets tightened and a broader economic downturn developed, hitting the auto industry particularly hard. The crisis intensified a decade-long decline of the largest US auto manufacturers. Because of its size and importance to the economy, the US government decided to provide assistance to General Motors (GM) to sustain it while it developed plans for its long-term viability. Congress declined to authorize funding for the auto manufacturers, but in December 2008, Treasury provided a bridge loan to GM under the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) to sustain the company until the Obama …
Broad-Based Capital Injection Programs, June Rhee, Junko Oguri, Greg Feldberg, Andrew Metrick
Broad-Based Capital Injection Programs, June Rhee, Junko Oguri, Greg Feldberg, Andrew Metrick
Journal of Financial Crises
This paper surveys 36 broad-based capital injection (BBCI) programs and attempts to identify some best (and worst) practices. We argue that it is crucial to distinguish between programs implemented during acute (“panic”) and chronic (“debt overhang”) phases of a crisis, where the goals of program design should be different. In an acute phase, programs should be designed to influence the behavior of bank counterparties, while in chronic phases, the focus should be on bank behavior itself. With this framing, we identify seven themes to guide program design, and provide many illustrative examples for the policymaker’s tool kit.
Belief Convergence Under Misspecified Learning: A Martingale Approach, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yuhta Ishii
Belief Convergence Under Misspecified Learning: A Martingale Approach, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yuhta Ishii
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We present an approach to analyze learning outcomes in a broad class of misspecified environments, spanning both single-agent and social learning. We introduce a novel “prediction accuracy” order over subjective models, and observe that this makes it possible to partially restore standard martingale convergence arguments that apply under correctly specified learning. Based on this, we derive general conditions to determine when beliefs in a given environment converge to some long-run belief either locally or globally (i.e., from some or all initial beliefs). We show that these conditions can be applied, first, to unify and generalize various convergence results in previously …
Gerrymandering And The Limits Of Representative Democracy, Kai Hao Yang, Alexander K. Zentefis
Gerrymandering And The Limits Of Representative Democracy, Kai Hao Yang, Alexander K. Zentefis
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We assess the capacity of gerrymandering to undermine the will of the people in a representative democracy. Citizens have political positions represented on a spectrum, and electoral maps separate people into districts. We show that unrestrained gerrymandering can severely distort the composition of a legislature, potentially leading half the population to lose all representation of their views. This means that, under majority rule in the congress, gerrymandering enables politicians to enact any legislation of their choice as long as it falls within the interquartile range of the political spectrum. Just as worrisome, gerrymandering can rig any legislation to pass instead …
Distributions Of Posterior Quantiles And Economic Applications, Kai Hao Yang, Alexander K. Zentefis
Distributions Of Posterior Quantiles And Economic Applications, Kai Hao Yang, Alexander K. Zentefis
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We characterize the distributions of posterior quantiles under a given prior. Unlike the distributions of posterior means, which are known to be mean-preserving contractions of the prior, the distributions of posterior quantiles coincide with a first-order stochastic dominance interval bounded by an upper and a lower truncation of the prior. We apply this characterization to several environments, ranging across political economy, Bayesian persuasion, industrial organization, econometrics, finance, and accounting.
Framing Human Action In Physics: Valid Reconstruction, Invalid Reduction, Shabnam Mousavi, Shyam Sunder
Framing Human Action In Physics: Valid Reconstruction, Invalid Reduction, Shabnam Mousavi, Shyam Sunder
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We propose framing human action in physics before reaching to biology and social sciences, rearranging the order of their usual deployment. As an example, consider efforts to model altruism that start in a frame of psychological or social attributes such as reciprocity, empathy, and identity. Evolutionary roots might also be used by appeal to survival of the species from biology. Only then the modeler abstracts to work on notations, and to establish relationships using mathematical apparatus from physics. This top-down deployment of principles from various scientific disciplines has generated a body of coherent models, partially generalizable theories, and disagreements. In …
Consumer Bankruptcy, Mortgage Default And Labor Supply, Wenli Li, Costas Meghir, Florian Oswald
Consumer Bankruptcy, Mortgage Default And Labor Supply, Wenli Li, Costas Meghir, Florian Oswald
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We specify and estimate a lifecycle model of consumption, housing demand and labor supply in an environment where individuals may file for bankruptcy or default on their mortgage. Uncertainty in the model is driven by house price shocks, education specific productivity shocks, and catastrophic consumption events, while bankruptcy is governed by the basic institutional framework in the US as implied by Chapter 7 and Chapter 13. The model is estimated using micro data on credit reports and mortgages combined with data from the American Community Survey. We use the model to understand the relative importance of the two chapters (7 …
Is Selling Complete Information (Approximately) Optimal?, Dirk Bergemann, Yang Cai, Grigoris Velegkas, Mingfei Zhao
Is Selling Complete Information (Approximately) Optimal?, Dirk Bergemann, Yang Cai, Grigoris Velegkas, Mingfei Zhao
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We study the problem of selling information to a data-buyer who faces a decision problem under uncertainty. We consider the classic Bayesian decision-theoretic model pioneered by Blackwell [Bla51, Bla53]. Initially, the data buyer has only partial information about the payoff-relevant state of the world. A data seller offers additional information about the state of the world. The information is revealed through signaling schemes, also referred to as experiments. In the single-agent setting, any mechanism can be represented as a menu of experiments. A recent paper by Bergemann et al. [BBS18] present a complete characterization of the revenue-optimal mechanism in a …
Democratization, Elite Capture And Economic Development, Andrew D. Foster, Mark R. Rosenzweig
Democratization, Elite Capture And Economic Development, Andrew D. Foster, Mark R. Rosenzweig
Discussion Papers
We show using a theoretical framework that embeds a voting model in a general-equilibrium model of a rural economy with two interest groups defined by land ownership that the effects of democratization - a shift from control of public resources by the landed elite to a democratic regime with universal suffrage - on the portfolio of public goods is heterogeneous, depending the population landless. In accord with the model and empirical findings from micro data on the differing material interests of the two land classes, we find, based on 30-year panel data describing the democratization of Indian villages, that democratization …
A Panel Clustering Approach To Analyzing Bubble Behavior, Yanbo Liu, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
A Panel Clustering Approach To Analyzing Bubble Behavior, Yanbo Liu, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This study provides new mechanisms for identifying and estimating explosive bubbles in mixed-root panel autoregressions with a latent group structure. A post-clustering approach is employed that combines a recursive k-means clustering algorithm with panel-data test statistics for testing the presence of explosive roots in time series trajectories. Uniform consistency of the k-means clustering algorithm is established, showing that the post-clustering estimate is asymptotically equivalent to the oracle counterpart that uses the true group identities. Based on the estimated group membership, right-tailed self-normalized t-tests and coefficient-based J-tests, each with pivotal limit distributions, are introduced to detect the explosive roots. The usual …