Economics Commons^™

The Value Of Arbitrage, Eduardo Dávila, Daniel Graves, Cecilia Parlatore

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper studies the social value of closing price differentials in financial markets. We show that arbitrage gaps (price differentials between markets) exactly correspond to the marginal social value of executing an arbitrage trade. We further show that arbitrage gaps and measures of price impact are sufficient to compute the total social value from closing an arbitrage gap. Theoretically, we show that, for a given arbitrage gap, the total social value of arbitrage is higher in more liquid markets. We apply our framework to compute the welfare gains from closing arbitrage gaps in the context of covered interest parity violations …

Optimal Inter-Release Time Between Sequentially Released Products, Jackie Luan, K. Sudhir

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Marketers routinely use timing as a segmentation device through sequential product releases. While there has been much theoretical research on the optimal introduction strategy of sequential releases, there is little empirical research on this problem. This paper develops an econometric model to empirically solve the inter-release timing problem: it involves (1) developing and estimating a structural model of consumers’ choice for sequentially released products and (2) using the estimates of the structural model to solve for the optimal inter-release time. The empirical application focuses on the movie industry, where we specifically address the issue of the inter-release time between a …

Agricultural Productivity And Deforestation: Evidence From Brazil, Dmitri Szerman, Juliano Assunção, Molly Lipscomb, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak

Discussion Papers

When agricultural productivity improves, farmers may react by expanding farming and further encroach on forest lands, or they may choose to intensify and produce more output with less land. We specify the conditions under which agricultural productivity can have such ambiguous effects on deforestation. We then examine the predictions of that model using county-level data from five waves of the Brazilian Census of Agriculture and satellite-based measures of land use. We identify productivity shocks using exogenous variation in rural electrification in Brazil during 1960-2000. We show that locations suitable for hydropower generation experienced improvements in crop yields, and that credit-constrained …

Encouragement And Distortionary Effects Of Conditional Cash Transfers, Gharad Bryan, Shyamal Chowdhury, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, Melanie Morten, Joeri Smits

Discussion Papers

Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs have become increasingly popular as a development strategy. These programs aim to reduce poverty or achieve other social goals by making the transfers conditional upon the receivers' actions. Conditions are designed to encourage some desirable behavior that recipients might otherwise under-invest in. An unintended consequence of the conditionality may be to distort recipients' actions in ways that lower their welfare. The transfer size plays an important role in shaping such distortionary effects. In certain circumstances, a larger transfer increases distortion more than that it raises benefits from stronger encouragement, implying that (i) there is an …

Informational Intermediation, Market Feedback, And Welfare Losses, Wenji Xu, Kai Hao Yang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper examines the welfare implications of third-party informational intermediation. A seller sets the price of a product that is sold through an informational intermediary. The intermediary can disclose information about the product to consumers and earns a fied percentage of sales revenue in each period. The intermediary's market base grows at a rate that increases with past consumer surplus. We characterize the stationary equilibria and the set of subgame perfect equilibrium payoffs. When market feedback (i.e., the extent to which past consumer surplus affects future market bases) increases, welfare may decrease in the Pareto sense.

Consumer Guilt And Sustainable Choice: Environmental Impact Of Durable Goods Innovation, K. Sudhir, Ramesh Shankar, Yuan Jin

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The paper develops a modeling framework to study how sustainability interventions impact consumer adoption of durable goods innovation, firm profit and environmental outcomes in equilibrium. Our two period model with forward looking consumers and a monopoly firm introducing an innovation in the second period accommodates three key features: (1) it builds on the psychology literature linking reactive and anticipatory guilt to consumers’ environmental sensitivity on initial purchase and upgrade decisions; (2) it disentangles environmental harm over the product life into that arising from product use and dumping at replacement; and (3) it clarifies how a taxonomy of innovations (function, fashion …

Market-Minded Informational Intermediary And Unintended Welfare Loss, Wenji Xu, Kai Hao Yang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper examines the welfare effects of informational intermediation. A (short-lived) seller sets the price of a product that is sold through a (long-lived) informational intermediary. The intermediary can disclose information about the product to consumers, earns a fixed percentage of the sales revenue in each period, and has concerns about its prominence---the market size it faces in the future, which in turn is increasing in past consumer surplus. We characterize the Markov perfect equilibria and the set of subgame perfect equilibrium payoffs of this game and show that when the market feedback (i.e., how much past consumer surplus affects …

Efficient Estimation Of Average Derivatives In Npiv Models: Simulation Comparisons Of Neural Network Estimators, Jiafeng Chen, Xiaohong Chen, Elie Tamer

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) can be viewed as \emph{nonlinear sieves} that can approximate complex functions of high dimensional variables more effectively than linear sieves. We investigate the computational performance of various ANNs in nonparametric instrumental variables (NPIV) models of moderately high dimensional covariates that are relevant to empirical economics. We present two efficient procedures for estimation and inference on a weighted average derivative (WAD): an orthogonalized plug-in with optimally-weighted sieve minimum distance (OP-OSMD) procedure and a sieve efficient score (ES) procedure. Both estimators for WAD use ANN sieves to approximate the unknown NPIV function and are root-n asymptotically normal …

Lessons Learned: Lewis "Lee" Sachs, Yasemin Esmen

Journal of Financial Crises

Lewis “Lee” Sachs was counselor to Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner and head of the Obama administration’s Financial Crisis Response Team in the US Department of the Treasury. Mr. Sachs led the development and coordination of the Obama administration’s Financial Stability Plan to stabilize the financial system during the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–09 (GFC). He was tasked with continued coordination with the outgoing Bush administration, as well as putting together a team to develop further restructuring plans and oversee their execution. This “Lessons Learned” is based on an interview with Mr. Sachs.

Lessons Learned: William Nelson, Sandra Ward

Journal of Financial Crises

William Nelson was deputy director, Division of Monetary Affairs, at the Federal Reserve Board during the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–09 (GFC). As the nation’s central bank, chief financial regulator, and lender of last resort, the Federal Reserve Board took the lead in setting monetary policy and stabilizing the financial system during the crisis.

Nelson’s responsibilities at the Fed during the crisis included analysis of monetary policy and discount window policy as well as financial institution supervision, and he regularly briefed the board and the Federal Open Market Committee. He developed special expertise in designing liquidity facilities and was a …

Lessons Learned: Timothy Massad, Yasemin Esmen

Journal of Financial Crises

Timothy Massad was assistant secretary for financial stability at the US Department of the Treasury between 2009 and 2014. He oversaw the $700 billion Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP), which was passed by Congress in October 2008 to enable the Treasury to buy assets of and invest in banks and companies to stem the financial crisis. Massad was involved in the implementation of TARP as well as its winding down; it ultimately invested $439 billion. This “Lessons Learned” is based on a phone interview with Mr. Massad.

Lessons Learned: Andreas Lehnert, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Andreas Lehnert was chief of the Federal Reserve’s Household and Real Estate Finance Section at the onset of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–09 (GFC) and played a key role in implementing the Fed’s research and policy agenda on financial stability. He developed and helped run the Fed’s first regulatory bank stress tests in 2009, and in 2010 played a role in launching the Office of Financial Stability Policy and Research, which became the Division of Financial Stability. This “Lessons Learned” is based on an interview with Mr. Lehnert.

Lessons Learned: Jenni Lecompte, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Jenni LeCompte was deputy assistant secretary in charge of public affairs operations at the Treasury Department during the Global Financial Crisis and later became assistant secretary, public affairs. She coordinated communications, served as a spokesperson, and advised Secretary Timothy Geithner during the crisis. This “Lessons Learned” is based on an interview with Ms. LeCompte.

Lessons Learned: Jason Furman, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Jason Furman was a top economic adviser to the successful presidential campaign of Barack Obama in 2008. He played a key role in most of President Obama’s major economic policies during and in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–09. Furman, who had served at both the Council of Economic Advisers and National Economic Council during the Clinton administration, served as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers from August 2013 to January 2017, acting as President Obama’s chief economist and a member of the cabinet. He is currently Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy at the …

The Effect Of A Financial Crisis On Household Finances: A Case Study Of Iceland’S Financial Crisis, Axel Hall, Andri S. Scheving, Gylfi Zoega

Journal of Financial Crises

Iceland experienced a financial crisis in 2008–2009 when its banking system collapsed, the currency lost half its value, most businesses became technically insolvent, house prices fell, and household debt increased due to indexation to foreign currencies or the price level. This paper tells the story of the crisis and maps the losses to households using a dataset from tax returns that includes all taxpayers in the country and contains the value of housing, mortgage debt, disposable income, and net worth. For relative losses in net worth, the results show that families with children, especially those with parents aged between 24 …

A Game-Theoretic Analysis Of Childhood Vaccination Behavior: Nash Versus Kant, Philippe De Donder, Humberto Llavador, Stefan Penczynski, John E. Roemer, Roberto Vélez

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Whether or not to vaccinate one’s child is a decision that a parent may approach in several ways. The vaccination game, in which parents must choose whether to vaccinate a child against a disease, is one with positive externalities (herd immunity). In some societies, not vaccinating is an increasingly prevalent behavior, due to deleterious side effects that parents believe may accompany vaccination. The standard game-theoretic approach assumes that parents make decisions according to the Nash behavioral protocol, which is individualistic and non-cooperative. Because of the positive externality that each child’s vaccination generates for others, the Nash equilibrium suffers from a …

The Us-China Trade War And Global Reallocations, Pablo Fajgelbaum, Pinelopi Goldberg, Patrick Kennedy, Amit Khandelwal, Daria Taglioni

Discussion Papers

We study global trade responses to the US-China trade war. We estimate the tariff impacts on product-level exports to the US, China, and rest of world. On average, countries decreased exports to China and increased exports to the US and rest of world. Most countries export products that complement the US and substitute China, and a subset operate along downward-sloping supplies. Heterogeneity in responses, rather than specialization, drives export variation across countries. Surprisingly, global trade increased in the products targeted by tariffs. Thus, despite ending the trend towards tariff reductions, the trade war did not halt global trade growth.

Aggregate Implications Of Barriers To Female Entrepreneurship, Gaurav Chiplunkar, Pinelopi K. Goldberg

Discussion Papers

We develop a framework for quantifying barriers to labor force participation (LFP) and entrepreneurship faced by women in developing countries, and apply it to the Indian economy. We find that women face substantial barriers to LFP. The costs for expanding businesses through the hiring of workers are also substantially higher for women entrepreneurs. However, there is one area in which female entrepreneurs have an advantage: the hiring of female workers. We show that this is not driven by the sectoral composition of female employment. Consistent with this pattern, we find even without promoting female LFP, policies that boost female entrepreneurship …

The Measuring Of Assortativeness In Marriage, Pierre-André Chiappori, Monica Costa-Dias, Costas Meghir

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Measuring the extent to which assortative matching
differs between two economies is challenging when the marginal distributions of the characteristic along which sorting takes place (e.g. education) also changes for either or both sexes. Drawing from the statistics literature we define simple conditions that any index has to satisfy to provide a measure of change in sorting that is not distorted by changes in the marginal distributions of the characteristic. While our characterisation of indices of assortativeness is not complete, and hence cannot exclude the possibility of multiple indices providing contradictory results, in an empirical application to US data we …

A Structural Model Of Organizational Buying For B2b Markets: Innovation Adoption With Share Of Wallet Contracts, Navid Mojir, K. Sudhir

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The paper develops the first structural model of organizational buying to study innovation diffusion in a B2B market. Our model is particularly applicable for routinized exchange relationships, whereby centralized buyers periodically evaluate and choose contracts, then downstream users or- der items on contracted terms. The model captures different utility tradeoffs for users and buyers while accounting for how buyer and user choices interact to impact user adoption/usage and buyer contracting. Further, the paper considers the dynamics induced by share of wallet (SOW) pricing contracts, commonly used in B2B markets to reward customer loyalty with discounts for buying more than a …

Incorporating Search And Sales Information In Demand Estimation, Ali Hortaçsu, Olivia R. Natan, Hayden Parsley, Timothy Schwieg, Kevin R. Williams

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We propose an approach to modeling and estimating discrete choice demand that allows for a large number of zero sale observations, rich unobserved heterogeneity, and endogenous prices. We do so by modeling small market sizes through Poisson arrivals. Each of these arriving consumers then solves a standard discrete choice problem. We present a Bayesian IV estimation approach that addresses sampling error in product shares and scales well to rich data environments. The data requirements are traditional market-level data and measures of consumer search intensity. After presenting simulation studies, we consider an empirical application of air travel demand where product-level sales …

Endogenous Spatial Production Networks: Quantitative Implications For Trade & Productivity, Piyush Panigrahi

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Larger Indian firms selling inputs to other firms tend to have more customers, tend to be used more intensively by their customers, and tend to have larger customers. Motivated by these regularities, I propose a novel empirical model of trade featuring endogenous formation of input-output linkages between spatially distant firms. The empirical model consists of (a) a theoretical framework that accommodates first order features of firm-to-firm network data, (b) a maximum likelihood framework for structural estimation that is uninhibited by the scale of data, and (c) a procedure for counterfactual analysis that speaks to the effects of micro- and macro- …

Organizational Structure And Pricing: Evidence From A Large U.S. Airline, Ali Hortaçsu, Olivia R. Natan, Hayden Parsley, Timothy Schwieg, Kevin R. Williams

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We study how organizational boundaries affect pricing decisions using comprehensive data from a large U.S. airline. We document that the firm’s advanced pricing algorithm, utilizing inputs from different organizational teams, is subject to multiple biases. To quantify the impacts of these biases, we estimate a structural demand model using sales and search data. We recover the demand curves the firm believes it faces using forecasting data. In counterfactuals, we show that correcting biases introduced by organizational teams individually have little impact on market outcomes, but coordinating organizational outcomes leads to higher prices/revenues and increased deadweight loss in the markets studied.

Lessons Learned: Matthew Kabaker, Yasemin Esmen

Journal of Financial Crises

During the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-09, Matthew Kabaker was senior adviser to Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner and Treasury deputy assistant secretary, capital markets. He helped design the Treasury’s policy response to the financial crisis; design and implement the Dodd-Frank financial reforms; and address housing finance reform, including reforms at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Mr. Kabaker also served on the Treasury’s Financial Stability Policy Council and Housing Policy Council. This Lessons Learned summary is based on an interview with Mr. Kabaker.

Lessons Learned: William “Bill” Dudley, Sandra Ward

Journal of Financial Crises

William “Bill” Dudley was the executive vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Markets Group from 2007–09 and vice chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee from 2009 to 2018. In January 2010, Dudley was named the 10th president of the New York Fed, succeeding Timothy Geithner. This Lessons Learned summary is based on an interview with Mr. Dudley.

The Us Supervisory Capital Assessment Program (Scap) And Capital Assistance Program (Cap), Aidan Lawson

Journal of Financial Crises

Due to continued stress during the Global Financial Crisis, the US Treasury released a series of additional measures in February 2009 that included a mandatory stress test for major U.S. bank holding companies (BHCs), backed by government capital. The stress test, known as the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program (SCAP), tested the capital adequacy of the 19 U.S. BHCs that had more than $100 billion in assets. A large interagency team of regulators and other experts estimated losses and income under two hypothetical scenarios for the group of BHCs: a baseline that reflected the consensus belief about the course of the …

Us Capital Purchase Program, Aidan Lawson, Adam Kulam

Journal of Financial Crises

During the fall of 2008, the US government was faced with a financial crisis of unprecedented scope. Having already exercised the authority to put Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into conservatorship in September, the stage was set for the US government to intervene more broadly in strained financial markets. This intervention would ultimately come in the form of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (EESA), which was passed on October 3, 2008. The main provision of EESA was the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, a $700 billion program initially designed to purchase troubled assets off the balance sheets …

Us Community Development Capital Initiative (Cdci), Adam Kulam

Journal of Financial Crises

The United States Department of the Treasury responded to the Global Financial Crisis with an economy-wide stimulus package called the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP). Within the portion of TARP’s budget dedicated to bank investments, about $570.1 million was disbursed to community development financial institutions (CDFIs)—specifically, banks and credit unions (depositories)—in a program called the Community Development Capital Initiative (CDCI). Through the CDCI, Treasury provided capital to CDFI depositories, encouraged them to lend to small businesses, and promoted other community-oriented goals. The CDFI depositories issued either preferred shares or unsecured subordinated debentures to Treasury at low (2%) interest rates for …

Us Reconstruction Finance Corporation: Preferred Stock Purchase Program, Aidan Lawson

Journal of Financial Crises

By March 1933, the early collateralized lending programs of the Reconstruction Finance Corporation (RFC) had failed to prevent the recurrence of bank runs and panic in US financial markets. These conditions forced newly elected President Franklin Delano Roosevelt to call for a nationwide bank holiday from March 6 to March 9. On the final day of the holiday, a special session of Congress passed the Emergency Banking Act (EBA), which gave the RFC the power to make investments via preferred equity of distressed institutions. Under the EBA, the RFC could subscribe to and make loans on cumulative non-assessable preferred stock …

Uk Bank Recapitalisation Scheme, Alec Buchholtz

Journal of Financial Crises

Following the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the ensuing global credit crunch in late 2008, Her Majesty’s Treasury (HMT) announced a large economic package to provide support to the UK banking sector. As part of the package, the eight largest banks committed themselves to raising their total Tier 1 capital by £25 billion through either private fundraising or government assistance. Thus, the economic package featured a new Bank Recapitalisation Scheme to invest up to £50 billion in capital into UK banking and credit institutions that could not raise their assets in the private sector. Government capital was invested into either …