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Articles 151 - 180 of 3476
Full-Text Articles in Economics
A Stairway To Success: How Parenting Shapes Culture And Social Stratification, Francesco Agostinelli, Matthias Doepke, Giuseppe Sorrenti, Fabrizio Zilibotti
A Stairway To Success: How Parenting Shapes Culture And Social Stratification, Francesco Agostinelli, Matthias Doepke, Giuseppe Sorrenti, Fabrizio Zilibotti
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This chapter argues that parenting choices are a central force in the joint evolution of culture and economic outcomes. We present a framework in which parents-motivated by both their children’s future success and their own normative beliefs-choose parenting styles and transmit cultural traits responding to economic incentives. Values such as work ethic, patience, and religiosity are more likely to be instilled when their anticipated returns, economic or otherwise, are high. The interaction between parenting and economic conditions gives rise to endogenous cultural and economic stratification. We extend the model to include residential sorting and social interactions, showing how neighborhood choice …
Complementarities In High School And College Investments, John Eric Humphries, Juanna Schrøter Joensen, Gregory Veramendi
Complementarities In High School And College Investments, John Eric Humphries, Juanna Schrøter Joensen, Gregory Veramendi
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper examines how high school specialization shapes college investment decisions and their subsequent returns through dynamic complementarities. Using Swedish administrative data, we estimate a dynamic Roy model that accounts for selection on multidimensional skills, family background, prior investments, and unobserved heterogeneity. We identify the model using rich skill measures and quasi-experimental variation in program popularity. For marginal students, STEM specialization in high school increases wages by 9%, with more than half this return attributed to dynamic complementarities that enhance the productivity of subsequent college investments. Consequently, we find that counterfactual policies encouraging high school STEM specialization generate twice the …
Scalable Targeting Of Social Protection: When Do Algorithms Out-Perform Surveys And Community Knowledge?, Emily Aiken, Anik Ashraf, Joshua E. Blumenstock, Raymond P. Guiteras, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak
Scalable Targeting Of Social Protection: When Do Algorithms Out-Perform Surveys And Community Knowledge?, Emily Aiken, Anik Ashraf, Joshua E. Blumenstock, Raymond P. Guiteras, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak
Discussion Papers
Innovations in big data and algorithms are enabling new approaches to target interventions at scale. We compare the accuracy of three different systems for identifying the poor to receive benefit transfers — proxy means-testing, nominations from community members, and an algorithmic approach using machine learning to predict poverty using mobile phone usage behavior — and study how their cost-effectiveness varies with the scale and scope of the program. We collect mobile phone records from all major telecom operators in Bangladesh and conduct community-based wealth rankings and detailed consumption surveys of 5,000 households, to select the 22,000 poorest households for $300 …
Scalable Targeting Of Social Protection: When Do Algorithms Out-Perform Surveys And Community Knowledge?, Emily Aiken, Anik Ashraf, Joshua E. Blumenstock, Raymond Guiteras, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak
Scalable Targeting Of Social Protection: When Do Algorithms Out-Perform Surveys And Community Knowledge?, Emily Aiken, Anik Ashraf, Joshua E. Blumenstock, Raymond Guiteras, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Innovations in big data and algorithms are enabling new approaches to target interventions at scale. We compare the accuracy of three different systems for identifying the poor to receive benefit transfers — proxy means-testing, nominations from community members, and an algorithmic approach using machine learning to predict poverty using mobile phone usage behavior — and study how their cost-effectiveness varies with the scale and scope of the program. We collect mobile phone records from all major telecom operators in Bangladesh and conduct community-based wealth rankings and detailed consumption surveys of 5,000 households, to select the 22,000 poorest households for $300 …
Quantile-Optimal Policy Learning Under Unmeasured Confounding, Zhongren Chen, Siyu Chen, Zhengling Qi, Xiaohong Chen, Zhuoran Yang
Quantile-Optimal Policy Learning Under Unmeasured Confounding, Zhongren Chen, Siyu Chen, Zhengling Qi, Xiaohong Chen, Zhuoran Yang
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We study quantile-optimal policy learning where the goal is to find a policy whose reward distribution has the largest α-quantile for some α P p0, 1q. We focus on the offline setting whose generating process involves unobserved confounders. Such a problem suffers from three main challenges: (i) nonlinearity of the quantile objective as a functional of the reward distribution, (ii) unobserved confounding issue, and (iii) insufficient coverage of the offline dataset. To address these challenges, we propose a suite of causal-assisted policy learning methods that provably enjoy strong theoretical guarantees under mild conditions. In particular, to address (i) and (ii), …
Daughters Left Behind: How Trade Liberalization Harms Girls In China When Government Restricts Migration, Xuwen Gao, Wenquan Liang, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, Ran Song
Daughters Left Behind: How Trade Liberalization Harms Girls In China When Government Restricts Migration, Xuwen Gao, Wenquan Liang, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, Ran Song
Discussion Papers
China’s accession to the WTO created new economic opportunities in certain cities. A shiftshare identification strategy shows that residents of adjacent rural areas migrated in and advanced economically. Longitudinal panel data on children reveals that their sons benefit, but counter-intuitively, daughters suffer worse mental and physical health, complete fewer years of schooling, and remain poor later in life. We explore why, and learn that hukou policy that restricts migrant children’s access to urban public schools is a factor. Triple difference research designs reveal that migrant parents become discontinuously more likely to leave daughters (but not sons) behind in rural areas …
Intergenerational Mobility In Ottoman Istanbul: Evidence From Court Records, Metin M. Coşgel, José-Antonio Espín-Sánchez, Emre Özer
Intergenerational Mobility In Ottoman Istanbul: Evidence From Court Records, Metin M. Coşgel, José-Antonio Espín-Sánchez, Emre Özer
Discussion Papers
We use data from the Istanbul court registers spanning from the 16th -19th centuries to establish, for the first time, long-term trends in intergenerational mobility in a major premodern city. The dataset contains information on over 270,000 individuals who appeared in court in various roles, including litigants, witnesses, and representatives. Crucially, it records the honorific titles (if any) of individuals and their fathers, which we use as measures for socioeconomic status. Our goal is to trace long-term changes in Istanbul’s social structure, analyze the relationship between fathers’ and sons’ titles to assess shifts in intergenerational mobility, and determine whether these …
The Price Of Intelligence: How Should Socially-Minded Firms Price And Deploy Ai?, Nils H. Lehr, Pascual Restrepo
The Price Of Intelligence: How Should Socially-Minded Firms Price And Deploy Ai?, Nils H. Lehr, Pascual Restrepo
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Leading AI firms claim to prioritize social welfare. How should firms with a social mandate price and deploy AI? We derive pricing formulas that depart from profit maximization by incorporating incentives to enhance welfare and reduce labor disruptions. Using US data, we evaluate several scenarios. A welfarist firm that values both profit and welfare should price closer to marginal cost, as efficiency gains outweigh distributional concerns. A conservative firm focused on labormarket stability should price above the profit-maximizing level in the short run, especially when its AI may displace low-income workers. Overall, socially minded firms face a trade-off between expanding …
Trade And Domestic Distortions: The Case Of Informality, Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Pinelopi Goldberg, Costas Meghir, Gabriel Ulyssea
Trade And Domestic Distortions: The Case Of Informality, Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Pinelopi Goldberg, Costas Meghir, Gabriel Ulyssea
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We examine the effects of international trade in the presence of a set of domestic distortions giving rise to informality, a prevalent phenomenon in developing countries. In our quantitative model, the informal sector arises from burdensome taxes and regulations that are imperfectly enforced by the government. In equilibrium, smaller, less productive firms face fewer distortions than larger, more productive ones, potentially leading to substantial misallocation. We show that in settings with a large informal sector, the gains from trade are significantly amplified, as reductions in trade barriers imply a reallocation of resources from initially less distorted to more distorted firms. …
Fatigue, Recovery, And The Economics Of Remote Work, María Sáez Martí
Fatigue, Recovery, And The Economics Of Remote Work, María Sáez Martí
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
I propose a model in which workers experience fatigue over time and can restore productivity by taking breaks. Optimal schedules feature evenly spaced, full-recovery breaks; when breaks are costless, they should occur frequently, but switching costs make the optimal number finite. The model is embedded in a principal-agent framework with contractual frictions. When employers control the schedule, workers overwork; when workers self-manage, they overrest. Both lead to inefficiencies. These results shed light on the trade-offs in remote work arrangements, especially following COVID-19. The analysis highlights how control rights, incentive design, and recovery constraints interact—and why neither rigid supervision nor full …
Gene X Environment Interactions: Polygenic Scores And The Impact Of A Early Childhood Intervention In Colombia, Orazio Attanasio, Gabriella Conti, Pamela Jervis, Costas Meghir, Aysu Okbay
Gene X Environment Interactions: Polygenic Scores And The Impact Of A Early Childhood Intervention In Colombia, Orazio Attanasio, Gabriella Conti, Pamela Jervis, Costas Meghir, Aysu Okbay
Discussion Papers
We evaluate impacts heterogeneity of an Early Childhood Intervention, with respect to the Educational Attainment Polygenic Score (EA4 PGS) constructed from DNA data based on GWAS weights from a European population. We find that the EA4 PGS is predictive of several measures of child development, mother’s IQ and, to some extent, educational attainment. We also show that the impacts of the intervention are significantly greater in children with low PGS, to the point that the intervention eliminates the initial genetic disadvantage. Lastly, we find that children with high PGS attract more parental stimulation; however, the latter increases more strongly in …
Revisiting The Lasting Impacts Of Incarceration, John Eric Humphries, Cécile Macaire, Aurélie Ouss, Megan Stevenson, Winnie Van Dijk
Revisiting The Lasting Impacts Of Incarceration, John Eric Humphries, Cécile Macaire, Aurélie Ouss, Megan Stevenson, Winnie Van Dijk
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Using newly-linked administrative and commercial data from Virginia spanning 25 years, we study the consequences of incarceration. While previous research has examined labor market outcomes and recidivism, we focus on two of the primary channels through which low-income households build wealth: asset ownership (homes and cars) and human capital formation. To identify causal effects, we use a matched differencein-differences design. In line with much of the literature on the impact of incarceration in the U.S., we find no evidence of scarring effects on labor market outcomes or changes in recidivism beyond the incapacitation period. However, we find that incarceration leads …
A Dynamic Theory Of Optimal Tariffs, Eduardo Dávila, Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, Andreas Schaab, Stacy Yingqi Tan
A Dynamic Theory Of Optimal Tariffs, Eduardo Dávila, Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, Andreas Schaab, Stacy Yingqi Tan
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The classic tariff formula states that the optimal unilateral tariff equals the inverse of the foreign export supply elasticity. We generalize this result and show that an intertemporal tariff formula characterizes the efficient tariff in a large class of dynamic heterogeneous agent (HA) economies with multiple goods. Intertemporal export supply elasticities and relative tariff revenue weights are sufficient statistics for the optimal tariff that decentralizes the efficient allocation. We also develop a general theory of second-best optimal tariffs. In dynamic HA incomplete markets economies, Ramsey optimal tariffs trade off intertemporal terms of trade manipulation against production efficiency, risk-sharing, and redistribution. …
Value Creation And Value Capture In Indian Garment Sector Bargaining, Russell Morton
Value Creation And Value Capture In Indian Garment Sector Bargaining, Russell Morton
Discussion Papers
This paper examines creation and distribution of surplus from global value chains (GVCs) in low- and middle-income country (LMIC) domestic supply chains. While GVC participation can enhance growth and productivity, low prices paid to small input suppliers raise concerns that gains from GVC participation accrue to the large exporters (the buyers). Supply-chain transactions often occur in bargained agreements with non-price terms that increase small supplier surplus, such as quantity stability and other insurance-like terms. Therefore, low input prices reflect both buyers’ share of surplus generated by non-price terms and buyer capture. I enrich a Nash bargaining model to study how …
From Delay To Payday: Easing Bureaucrat Access To Implementation Information Strengthens Social Protection Delivery, Eric Dodge, Yusuf Neggers, Rohini Pande, Charity Troyer Moore
From Delay To Payday: Easing Bureaucrat Access To Implementation Information Strengthens Social Protection Delivery, Eric Dodge, Yusuf Neggers, Rohini Pande, Charity Troyer Moore
Discussion Papers
Poor implementation frequently impedes social protection delivery in low-state-capacity settings. In such environments, reducing managers’ information acquisition costs may improve their grasp of frontline issues and program performance. However, in the presence of managerial rent-seeking, increasing the principal’s information may be key, and doing so just for managers can backfire. To assess this trade-off and implications for program performance, we collaborated with two Indian states to randomly vary bureaucrat access to PayDash, a digital platform for real-time tracking of worker payment processing for the national rural workfare program. In treated districts, PayDash expedited bureaucrat processing of workfare payments by 17%, …
Personalized Discounts And Consumer Search, Zikun Liu, Jiwoong Shin, Jidong Zhou
Personalized Discounts And Consumer Search, Zikun Liu, Jiwoong Shin, Jidong Zhou
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The growing availability of big data enables firms to predict consumer search outcomes and outside options more accurately than consumers themselves. This paper examines how a firm can utilize such superior information to offer personalized buy-now discounts intended to deter consumer search. However, discounts can also serve as signals of attractive outside options, potentially encouraging rather than discouraging consumer search. We show that, despite the firm’s ability to tailor discounts across a continuum of consumer valuations, the firm-optimal equilibrium features a simple two-tier discount scheme, comprising a uniform positive discount when the consumer outside option is intermediate and no discount …
Cross Section Curve Data Autoregression, Peter C.B. Phillips, Liang Jiang
Cross Section Curve Data Autoregression, Peter C.B. Phillips, Liang Jiang
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper develops and applies new asymptotic theory for estimation and inference in parametric autoregression with function valued cross section curve time series. The study provides a new approach to dynamic panel regression with high dimensional dependent cross section data. Here we deal with the stationary case and provide a full set of results extending those of standard Euclidean space autoregression, showing how function space curve cross section data raises efficiency and reduces bias in estimation and shortens confidence intervals in inference. Methods are developed for high-dimensional covariance kernel estimation that are useful for inference. The findings reveal that function …
Lessons Learned: Fabrizio López-Gallo, Mercedes Cardona
Lessons Learned: Fabrizio López-Gallo, Mercedes Cardona
Journal of Financial Crises
Fabrizio López-Gallo served as the Bank of Mexico’s director general of financial stability during the COVID-19 pandemic, having been financial sector specialist and risk analysis and special projects manager for the central bank during the 2007–09 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The Mexican government declared a health emergency at the outbreak of the pandemic and implemented a general economic shutdown. The Bank of Mexico intervened by cutting rates and initiating extraordinary measures, such as adding bond swaps and loosening rules for minimum deposits at commercial banks to provide liquidity. It gave flexibility to commercial banks to grant forbearance on mortgage payments …
Lessons Learned: Cecilia Skingsley, Maryann Haggerty
Lessons Learned: Cecilia Skingsley, Maryann Haggerty
Journal of Financial Crises
During the Swedish banking crisis of the early 1990s, Cecilia Skingsley was the press secretary for the Ministry of Finance. She held various roles, including chief economist, at Swedbank, one of Sweden’s largest banks, from 2007 to 2013, a period that included the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and European Sovereign Debt Crisis. Swedbank suffered heavy losses amid the GFC and relied on a government guarantee program for support. In 2013, she became a deputy governor of Sveriges Riksbank, Sweden’s central bank; in 2019, she became first deputy governor. Skingsley left the Riksbank in September 2022 to become head of the …
Lessons Learned: Philip Lane, Mary Anne Chute Lynch, Rosalind Z. Wiggins
Lessons Learned: Philip Lane, Mary Anne Chute Lynch, Rosalind Z. Wiggins
Journal of Financial Crises
Philip Lane served as governor of the Central Bank of Ireland from 2015 to 2019. He introduced countercyclical capital and systemic buffer tools and initiated research into the role and risks of cross-border inflows across Ireland. As a member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) since 2015, Lane has advocated for the European Union to adopt macroprudential policies and tools. He hailed the work of the European Systemic Risk Board and similar institutions established after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis to share data, information concerning risks, and concerns over financial …
Lessons Learned: J. Christopher Flowers, Mary Anne Chute Lynch
Lessons Learned: J. Christopher Flowers, Mary Anne Chute Lynch
Journal of Financial Crises
J. Christopher Flowers has been managing director, CEO, and chairman of the private investment firm J.C. Flowers & Co. LLC for many years. During the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007–2009, Flowers was involved with investing in some of the largest banks and financial institutions in the world and advising and consulting with them on possible acquisitions, mergers, and sales as several of these firms began to collapse. In the fall of 2008, Flowers worked closely with the Bank of America (BofA) on proposals to acquire Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch, and he developed a plan for private investors to …
Lessons Learned: Giorgio Gobbi, Mercedes Cardona
Lessons Learned: Giorgio Gobbi, Mercedes Cardona
Journal of Financial Crises
Giorgio Gobbi joined the Economic Research Department of the Bank of Italy in 1990 and was assigned to carry out analysis and research on the banking industry. From 1998 to 2004, he headed the department’s Financial Intermediaries Office and represented the bank at the International Monetary Fund, the Bank of International Settlements, and the European Central Bank. Starting in 2007, Gobbi headed the Financial Structure and Intermediaries Division within the bank’s Structural Economic Analysis Department. He was appointed deputy head of the Financial Stability Unit in 2013 and became head of the Financial Stability Directorate in 2014.
Eliminating Discount Window Stigma: What Can We Learn From Abroad?, Susan Mclaughlin
Eliminating Discount Window Stigma: What Can We Learn From Abroad?, Susan Mclaughlin
Journal of Financial Crises
This article picks up from an earlier Journal of Financial Crisis policy note on discount window design to see how the experiences of other central banks can inform work to redesign the discount window to reduce stigma. As explained in that article, banks’ reluctance to use the discount window is problematic for financial stability as it constrains the Fed’s ability to use its liquidity provision tools to stem runs and mitigate contagion in times of stress. The stigma associated with discount window borrowing in the United States is well documented and is a multifaceted phenomenon.
Lessons Learned: Jesper Berg, Maryann Haggerty
Lessons Learned: Jesper Berg, Maryann Haggerty
Journal of Financial Crises
The career of Jesper Berg, a Danish economist, has spanned multiple financial crises. He held positions with the Danish central bank, Danmarks Nationalbank, from 2004 to 2010, first as head of market operations and later as head of financial stability. He had served as head of the capital markets and financial structure division at the European Central Bank from 2000 to 2004, and earlier he was an economist at the International Monetary Fund’s Exchange and Trade Relations Department. This Lessons Learned summary is based on an interview with Berg in December 2022, when he was director general of the Danish …
Liquidity Facilities Provided To Banks During The Dominican Republic Financial Crisis Of 2003, Marco Porfirio Martínez
Liquidity Facilities Provided To Banks During The Dominican Republic Financial Crisis Of 2003, Marco Porfirio Martínez
Journal of Financial Crises
As part of an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (CBDR) released a comprehensive document providing an overview of the origins and handling of the 2003 financial crisis. This Archive Note builds on the highlights of that document by discussing primary factors that led to problems within Banco Intercontinental (Baninter), the bank that triggered the crisis; detailing measures the CBDR implemented to mitigate the situation; and addressing the consequences for two other major banks, Banco Mercantil and Bancrédito.
United States: Lehman Brothers Broker-Dealer Emergency Liquidity Program, 2008, Ayodeji George, Steven Kelly
United States: Lehman Brothers Broker-Dealer Emergency Liquidity Program, 2008, Ayodeji George, Steven Kelly
Journal of Financial Crises
On Sunday, September 14, 2008, a deal to sell the United States investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LBHI) to United Kingdom–based Barclays fell apart. US authorities informed LBHI that, given the lack of rescue funds, it would need to file for bankruptcy before Monday morning to avoid additional chaos for the firm and markets. However, authorities understood Barclays was still interested in buying Lehman’s broker-dealer subsidiary, Lehman Brothers Inc. (LBI). Federal Reserve and Treasury officials were concerned about the impact that the sudden failure of LBI could have on financial markets. LBI had $87 billion in secured overnight repurchase …
United States: First Republic Bank Emergency Liquidity Program, 2023, Salil Gupta, Jack French, Steven Kelly
United States: First Republic Bank Emergency Liquidity Program, 2023, Salil Gupta, Jack French, Steven Kelly
Journal of Financial Crises
First Republic Bank, a California-based institution with $212.6 billion in assets, lost $25 billion in deposits on Friday, March 10, 2023, following the closing of Silicon Valley Bank that morning. On Sunday, March 12, First Republic announced that it had access to $70 billion in unused liquidity owing to its borrowing capacity at the Federal Reserve, the Federal Home Loan Bank System, and JPMorgan Chase (JPMC). But First Republic’s depositors withdrew a further $40 billion of deposits on Monday, March 13. First Republic’s borrowings from the Federal Reserve rose as high as $109 billion between Friday, March 10, and Wednesday, …
United States: Citigroup Emergency Liquidity Program, 2008, Vincient Arnold
United States: Citigroup Emergency Liquidity Program, 2008, Vincient Arnold
Journal of Financial Crises
By November 21, 2008, against the backdrop of heavy losses during the Global Financial Crisis, Citigroup counterparties were substantially pulling back from the firm. On November 23, the US Department of the Treasury, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and Federal Reserve announced a support package for Citi composed of a capital injection and a loss-sharing arrangement on $300.8 billion of assets. Under the Asset Guarantee Program (AGP), Citi would absorb the first $39.5 billion in losses on a mutually agreed upon pool of risky assets; the Treasury and FDIC provided $15 billion in loss protection after that, combined with Citi’s …
United States: Bear Stearns Emergency Liquidity Assistance, 2008, Vincient Arnold
United States: Bear Stearns Emergency Liquidity Assistance, 2008, Vincient Arnold
Journal of Financial Crises
On Thursday, March 13, 2008, the US investment bank Bear Stearns Companies approached the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY), saying it expected many of its repurchase agreement (repo) counterparties would not “roll,” or renew, their repo agreements the next day. As a result, the firm would be obligated to repay many of its repo liabilities. Without an emergency loan, Bear would be forced to file for bankruptcy on Friday morning, March 14. Before the market opened on Friday, the FRBNY made an overnight loan for $12.9 billion through JPMorgan Chase Bank (JPMC) on a nonrecourse basis, which on-lent …
United States: Bank Of America Emergency Liquidity Program, 2009, Vincient Arnold
United States: Bank Of America Emergency Liquidity Program, 2009, Vincient Arnold
Journal of Financial Crises
On December 31, 2008, Bank of America (BofA) finalized its acquisition of Merrill Lynch, absorbing losses of $15.5 billion as a result. Regulators were concerned about BofA’s short-term liquidity position and ability to post more collateral if its credit rating was downgraded. On January 16, 2009, the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and Department of the Treasury announced an interagency support package to BofA, which included an asset guarantee wherein all three agencies shared losses with BofA on a “ring-fenced” $118 billion pool of assets. Under the ring-fencing arrangement, known as the Asset Guarantee Program (AGP), BofA would …