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Articles 121 - 150 of 3476
Full-Text Articles in Economics
The Global Gender Distortions Index (Ggdi), Pinelopi Goldberg, Charles Gottlieb, Somik Lall, Meet Mehta, Michael Peters, Aishwarya Lakshmi Ratan
The Global Gender Distortions Index (Ggdi), Pinelopi Goldberg, Charles Gottlieb, Somik Lall, Meet Mehta, Michael Peters, Aishwarya Lakshmi Ratan
Discussion Papers
The extent to which women participate in the labor market varies greatly across the globe. If such differences reflect distortions that women face in accessing good jobs, they can reduce economic activity through a misallocation of talent. In this paper, we build on Hsieh et al. (2019) to provide a methodology to quantify these productivity consequences. The index we propose, the ”Global Gender Distortions Index (GGDI)”, measures the losses in aggregate productivity that gender-based misallocation imposes. Our index allows us to separately identify labor demand distortions (e.g., discrimination in hiring for formal jobs) from labor supply distortions (e.g., frictions that …
Cross Section Curve Autoregression: The Unit Root Case, Peter C.B. Phillips, Liang Jiang
Cross Section Curve Autoregression: The Unit Root Case, Peter C.B. Phillips, Liang Jiang
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper is part of a joint study of parametric autoregression with cross section curve time series, focussing on unit root (UR) nonstationary curve data autoregression. The Hilbert space setting extends scalar UR and local UR models to accommodate high dimensional cross section dependent data under very general conditions. New limit theory is introduced that involves two parameter Gaussian processes that generalize the standard UR and local UR asymptotics. Bias expansions provide extensions of the well-known results in scalar autoregression and fixed effect dynamic panels to functional dynamic regressions. Semiparametric and ADF-type UR tests are developed with corresponding limit theory …
Selective Turnout, Voting Policy, And Partisan Bias: Evidence From Multi-Level Data, Steven T. Berry, Christian Cox, Philip A. Haile
Selective Turnout, Voting Policy, And Partisan Bias: Evidence From Multi-Level Data, Steven T. Berry, Christian Cox, Philip A. Haile
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We study voting in general elections for the U.S. House of Representatives. Our data set includes demographics and turnout of all registered voters for the years 2016–2020, as well as vote shares at the precinct and contest level. We estimate a Downsian voting model incorporating rich observed and unobserved heterogeneity at the voter and contest level. We find that voters with high perceived voting costs tend to favor Democrats, as do marginal voters in most districts. Variation in state voting policies accounts for a modest share of overall estimated voting costs but is sufficient to determine the majority party in …
Outsourcing, Labor Market Frictions, And Employment, Mayara Felix, Michael B. Wong
Outsourcing, Labor Market Frictions, And Employment, Mayara Felix, Michael B. Wong
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We estimate the labor market impacts of Brazil’s 1993 outsourcing legalization us-ing North-South variation in pre-legalization court permissiveness, and comparing security guards to less-affected occupations. We find that outsourcing legalization persistently reallocated jobs from older incumbent guards to younger entrants. Total employ-ment of guards and their entry from informality persistently increased, while average demographic-adjusted wages remained constant. Meanwhile, a wave of occupational layoffs displaced some incumbent guards from high-wage firms. The evidence suggests that the rise of non-core activity outsourcing reduced labor market frictions, facilitated by firm-level economies of scale in human resources and spillovers to non-adopting firms.
College Application Mistakes And The Design Of Information Policies At Scale, Tomás Larroucau, Ignacio A. Rios, Anaïs Fabre, Christopher Neilson
College Application Mistakes And The Design Of Information Policies At Scale, Tomás Larroucau, Ignacio A. Rios, Anaïs Fabre, Christopher Neilson
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We examine whether large-scale information interventions can improve college application outcomes in a centralized admissions system. Using nationwide surveys from Chile, we document widespread information frictions and frequent application mistakes, such as omitting attainable preferred programs or failing to include safety options. To address these frictions, we partnered with the Ministry of Education to implement a large-scale field experiment that provided applicants with personalized information on admission probabilities and program characteristics through customized online platforms. The intervention increased the probability that previously unmatched students received an assignment by 44% and improved placement into higher-ranked programs by 20%. Building on these …
Optimal Management Of Public Energy Communities: Investment Strategies And Welfare Maximization, Dirk Bergemann, Marina Bertolini, Marta Castellini, Michele Moretto, Sergio Vergalli
Optimal Management Of Public Energy Communities: Investment Strategies And Welfare Maximization, Dirk Bergemann, Marina Bertolini, Marta Castellini, Michele Moretto, Sergio Vergalli
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
A municipality (social planner) is seeking to establish a renewable energy community paying the initial investment costs, while also identifying the optimal management framework. In this context, two distinct modes of governance are analyzed: the private and the public one. In the first case, a private (or profit) aggregator oversees the energy community with a monopolistic behavior, while in the other the aggregator is a public owned, or controlled, company following the social approach advocated by the promoter, i.e the municipality. In both scenarios, the effective functioning of the community requires the collection of private data on members’ energy consumption. …
Semiparametric Learning Of Integral Functionals On Submanifolds, Xiaohong Chen, Wayne Yuan Guo
Semiparametric Learning Of Integral Functionals On Submanifolds, Xiaohong Chen, Wayne Yuan Guo
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper studies the semiparametric estimation and inference of integral functionals on submanifolds, which arise naturally in a variety of econometric settings. For linear integral functionals on a regular submanifold, we show that the semiparametric plugin estimator attains the minimax-optimal convergence rate n—s2s+d-m, where s is the Hölder smoothness order of the underlying nonparametric function, d is the dimension of the first-stage nonparametric estimation, m is the dimension of the submanifold over which the integral is taken. This rate coincides with the standard minimax-optimal rate for a (d − m)-dimensional nonparametric estimation problem, illustrating that integration over the …
Tariffs And Trade Deficits, Lorenzo Caliendo, Samuel Kortum, Fernando Parro
Tariffs And Trade Deficits, Lorenzo Caliendo, Samuel Kortum, Fernando Parro
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper develops a complete-markets model to analyze the determinants of endogenous trade imbalances across countries. We introduce a framework where countries can trade in Arrow-Debreu securities to insure against different states of the world, which enables them to run deficits in some states and surpluses in others. The model allows for counterfactual analysis of various trade policy scenarios, such as unilateral tariff impositions. We derive the conditions under which trade deficits arise endogenously and discuss implications for welfare and trade policy analysis.
Selection In Surveys: Using Randomized Incentives To Detect And Account For Nonresponse Bias, Deniz Dutz, Ingrid Huitfeldt, Santiago Lacouture, Magne Mogstad, Alexander Torgovitsky, Winnie Van Dijk
Selection In Surveys: Using Randomized Incentives To Detect And Account For Nonresponse Bias, Deniz Dutz, Ingrid Huitfeldt, Santiago Lacouture, Magne Mogstad, Alexander Torgovitsky, Winnie Van Dijk
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We show how to use randomized participation incentives to test and account for nonresponse bias in surveys. We first use data from a survey about labor market conditions, linked to full-population administrative data, to provide evidence of large differences in labor market outcomes between survey participants and nonparticipants, differences which would not be observable to an analyst who only has access to the survey data. These differences persist even after correcting for observable characteristics. We then use the randomized incentives in our survey to directly test for nonresponse bias, and find evidence of substantial bias. Next, we apply a range …
Estimating How Much Children Work: Questionnaires Versus Time Use Diaries, Juana Lamote De Grignon Pérez, Wenbin Wang, Tanay Kasyap, Matthew Henglong Luo, Jialu Tang
Estimating How Much Children Work: Questionnaires Versus Time Use Diaries, Juana Lamote De Grignon Pérez, Wenbin Wang, Tanay Kasyap, Matthew Henglong Luo, Jialu Tang
Discussion Papers
Current estimates of child labour often rely on questions such as, “How many hours did you work last week?” While biases in adult self-reports are well-documented in high-income countries, there is limited evidence on the accuracy of children’s responses in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Using data from nine LMICs, including China and India, this paper shows that time diaries report more than twice as many work hours as standard questionnaires. This discrepancy suggests that current estimates may significantly understate child labour. Moreover, certain forms of work—such as collecting water or firewood—appear to contribute to these measurement gaps.
Lessons Learned: Luis Jácome, Mercedes Cardona
Lessons Learned: Luis Jácome, Mercedes Cardona
Journal of Financial Crises
Luis Jácome was appointed president of the board of Ecuador’s central bank in 1998 by newly elected President Jamil Mahuad. He and other members of the board resigned in 1999 in protest against a number of crisis-intervention measures they saw as threatening the bank’s independence to set monetary policy. Since the 1970s, Ecuador’s economy had experienced a period of growth fueled by oil exports, but by the mid-1990s the economy was reeling from a series of shocks, among them: a sharp drop in the price of oil, the effects of severe flooding on the country’s agricultural production, and the cost …
Lessons Learned: Vincenzo La Via, Mercedes Cardona
Lessons Learned: Vincenzo La Via, Mercedes Cardona
Journal of Financial Crises
Vincenzo La Via joined the World Bank Group in 2005 as chief financial officer, in charge of financial reporting, accounting, strategic planning and budgeting, credit risk, corporate finance, market risk, liquidity and asset management, and product development. During his tenure, La Via took part in the bank’s response to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the subsequent European Sovereign Debt Crisis. He left the bank in 2012 to become director general of the Treasury in the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance as the Italian government took on reform of the banking sector. He left the public sector in 2019 …
Lessons Learned: Miguel Carcaño, Mercedes Cardona
Lessons Learned: Miguel Carcaño, Mercedes Cardona
Journal of Financial Crises
During the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Miguel Carcaño served as head of the Spanish Treasury’s Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring, the authority in charge of managing the restructuring process of the country’s credit institutions. The fund, known today as the Spanish Executive Resolution Authority, is integrated into the European network led by the Single Resolution Board (SRB) of the European Union’s banking union. Carcaño has held a number of posts within the SRB and in 2022 became head of the Single Resolution Fund, the SRB’s emergency fund, which serves as backstop for institutions across the banking union’s 21 countries.
Lessons Learned: Benoît Cœuré, Mercedes Cardona
Lessons Learned: Benoît Cœuré, Mercedes Cardona
Journal of Financial Crises
Benoît Cœuré held several positions in the French Treasury in the years leading to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). He was an economic adviser to the director general of the French Treasury from 1997–2002, deputy chief executive and chief executive of the French debt management office from 2002–2007, and assistant secretary for multilateral affairs, trade, and development from 2007–2009. He served as chief economist and deputy director general in 2009–2011. He joined the European Central Bank (ECB) during the European Sovereign debt Crisis and was responsible for market operations, market infrastructure supervision and European and international relations as a member …
Lessons Learned: Mark Branson, Mercedes Cardona
Lessons Learned: Mark Branson, Mercedes Cardona
Journal of Financial Crises
Mark Branson joined the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) as head of the banking division in 2010, during the European Sovereign Debt Crisis. He became deputy director of FINMA in 2013 and was named director a year later. Although Switzerland is not a member of the European Union (EU) or its banking union, the nation participates in bilateral agreements that govern trade with the EU, its largest trading partner. In the wake of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), it enacted a number of regulations to improve oversight of the financial sector. Branson left FINMA in 2021 to become head …
Lessons Learned: Ignazio Angeloni, Mercedes Cardona
Lessons Learned: Ignazio Angeloni, Mercedes Cardona
Journal of Financial Crises
Ignazio Angeloni was an adviser on financial integration, financial stability, and monetary policy to the Executive Board of the European Central Bank during the European Sovereign Debt Crisis and later became director general of financial stability. He coordinated the preparations for establishing the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM), a component of the European banking union. The SSM was created to address macroprudential gaps identified during the Global Financial Crisis and the Sovereign Debt Crisis. Angeloni has advocated in his academic papers for completing the work of the SSM by establishing a regional deposit insurance scheme that would backstop the work of …
How Us Bank Regulation Failed Svb And Its Supervisors, Greg Feldberg, Carey K. Mott, Jill Cetina
How Us Bank Regulation Failed Svb And Its Supervisors, Greg Feldberg, Carey K. Mott, Jill Cetina
Journal of Financial Crises
It is well known that Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) failed in March 2023 because of a toxic combination of uninsured deposits and underwater securities. This article argues that the bank’s failure could have been avoided if SVB had been subject to two global standards established by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. First, the interest-rate risk in the banking book (IRR-BB) standard, never fully implemented in the United States, would have identified the bank’s extremely risky asset-liability management strategy and required remedial action 10 quarters before it failed. Second, the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR), from which US regulators had exempted …
Emergency Liquidity Assistance And Monetary Financing In The European Union: A Case Study In Fiscal Cooperation?, Vincient Arnold
Emergency Liquidity Assistance And Monetary Financing In The European Union: A Case Study In Fiscal Cooperation?, Vincient Arnold
Journal of Financial Crises
In the European Union (EU), primary EU treaty law prohibits central banks from engaging in monetary financing, which includes lending to insolvent firms. This legal prohibition exists alongside, and in parallel to, various regulatory provisions of the Eurosystem. As a result, EU Member State central banks face unique legal limitations when acting in their roles as lenders of last resort, providing emergency liquidity assistance (ELA). In practice, European central banks—both members of the Eurosystem and not—lend to firms of questionable solvency with some frequency, often creatively employing fiscal guarantees to limit their balance sheet exposure and shift the lending risk …
United States: Rhode Island Limited Bank Holiday, 1991, Ayodeji George, Sophia Alden
United States: Rhode Island Limited Bank Holiday, 1991, Ayodeji George, Sophia Alden
Journal of Financial Crises
In 1990, the Rhode Island Share and Deposit Indemnity Corporation (RISDIC) was a private mutual deposit insurance corporation funded by member institutions. Late that year, after the failures of two of its insured institutions in July and October, other RISDIC member institutions faced large depositor withdrawals, as concerns began to focus on the financial health of RISDIC itself. RISDIC had maintained inadequate reserves, and on December 31, 1990, it found itself lacking the resources to cover depositor withdrawals from member institutions. RISDIC leadership requested a state-appointed conservator, which meant that all its member institutions no longer had the deposit insurance …
United States: Reserve Primary Fund Suspension, 2008, Anmol Makhija
United States: Reserve Primary Fund Suspension, 2008, Anmol Makhija
Journal of Financial Crises
In 2008, the Reserve Primary Fund was the world’s third-largest money market fund with $62.5 billion in assets. Following Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy filing on September 15, the Primary Fund’s $785 million position in Lehman debt securities was underwater, and the fund faced severe redemption pressures from investors. In just two days, redemption requests surpassed $40 billion. Owing to the fund’s inability to liquidate assets at or above par value in the frozen markets and the inability of its sponsor, the Reserve Management Company, Inc. (RMCI), to support investors, the Reserve announced on September 16 that the Primary Fund had “broken …
United States: National Bank Holiday, 1933, Ayodeji George
United States: National Bank Holiday, 1933, Ayodeji George
Journal of Financial Crises
By mid-February 1933, the United States was in the depths of the Great Depression and the banking system faced sustained depositor runs and currency hoarding. On February 14, the governor of Michigan declared a holiday for all banks and trusts in the state. There followed a wave of declared bank holidays and bank runs across the country. The public withdrew $1.8 billion in gold and currency from banks in February and early March, with nearly two-thirds of those withdrawals occurring in the week ended Friday, March 3. By that date, 25 of 48 states had implemented bank holidays or restricted …
India: Yes Bank Moratorium, 2020, Salil Gupta
India: Yes Bank Moratorium, 2020, Salil Gupta
Journal of Financial Crises
By December 2019, Yes Bank’s capital levels had dropped below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) mandated threshold, as the bank was facing a combination of deposit withdrawals, losses from extraordinary credit provisions, and overexposure to stressed sectors. On March 5, 2020, India’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) and the RBI placed Yes Bank under a 30-day moratorium that restricted most banking functions and limited deposit withdrawals to INR 50,000 per person (USD 663). The purpose of this moratorium was to allow the RBI time to design a plan of reconstruction or amalgamation for Yes Bank to allow depositors limited access …
Greece: National Bank Holiday, 2015, Stella Schaefer-Brown
Greece: National Bank Holiday, 2015, Stella Schaefer-Brown
Journal of Financial Crises
In December 2014, deposit outflows from Greek banks intensified owing to political uncertainty following the announcement of a snap presidential election and a subsequent crash of the Greek stock market. This led to a liquidity crisis in the first half of 2015. Intensifying political uncertainty, worsening liquidity, and volatility in the macroeconomic and financial markets environment peaked in the first half of 2015. The crisis was exacerbated by a February decision by the European Central Bank (ECB) that made it difficult for Greek banks to continue borrowing from its monetary policy-related liquidity programs. On June 28, 2015, the ECB announced …
Cyprus: National Bank Holiday, 2013, Stella Schaefer-Brown
Cyprus: National Bank Holiday, 2013, Stella Schaefer-Brown
Journal of Financial Crises
The Greek government debt crisis was especially hard on the two largest Cypriot banks. Bank of Cyprus (BoC) and Laiki Bank lost EUR 1.8 billion and EUR 2.3 billion, respectively, on their Greek government bonds after the European Union (EU) decision in October 2011 to haircut the bonds. Over the next year, Laiki Bank faced severe liquidity problems from depositor withdrawals, the Central Bank of Cyprus (CBC) extended to it significant emergency liquidity assistance, and the government owned 84% of the bank after injecting EUR 1.8 billion. The Cypriot economy also suffered negative effects and in March 2013, authorities negotiated …
Ecuador: National Bank Holiday, 1999, Bailey Decker
Ecuador: National Bank Holiday, 1999, Bailey Decker
Journal of Financial Crises
After a series of exogenous shocks hit Ecuador’s economy in 1997 and 1998, foreign creditors reduced external credit lines to the country, draining liquidity. The newly created Deposit Guarantee Agency (Agencia de Garantía de Depósitos, AGD) administered deposit insurance and a new blanket guarantee and had the authority to resolve failing banks. Despite these actions, bank runs continued. After depositors reportedly withdrew USD 400 million from banks over a two-week period, on Monday, March 8, 1999, one hour before banks were supposed to open, the bank superintendent declared a surprise bank holiday effective that day; banks reopened a week later …
Argentina: National Bank Holidays, 2001, Owen Heaphy
Argentina: National Bank Holidays, 2001, Owen Heaphy
Journal of Financial Crises
Starting in 1991, Argentina operated a currency board regime under which the central bank guaranteed a one-to-one peg of the Argentine peso to the US dollar. But in 2001, markets became increasingly concerned that the central bank would be unable to maintain the peg and would allow the peso to devalue against the dollar. At that time, more than two-thirds of Argentine bank deposits were denominated in dollars. Throughout 2001, depositors withdrew funds from banks; by November, peso deposits had declined by more than one-third and dollar deposits had fallen by one-tenth. On November 28, 2001, the systemwide banking run …
Survey Of Bank Holidays And Fund Suspensions, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Owen Heaphy, Anmol Makhija, Stella Schaefer-Brown, Greg Feldberg, Andrew Metrick
Survey Of Bank Holidays And Fund Suspensions, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Owen Heaphy, Anmol Makhija, Stella Schaefer-Brown, Greg Feldberg, Andrew Metrick
Journal of Financial Crises
In this paper, we analyze seven case studies involving bank holidays and two involving mutual fund suspensions produced by the Yale Program on Financial Stability. Our main purpose is to assist policymakers who are considering utilizing a bank holiday in designing the most effective program as efficiently as possible. We find that a bank holiday may be most useful when designing and implementing a comprehensive remedy to an underlying problem distressing banks, particularly when an exogenous shock rather than balance sheet weaknesses is the cause of general distress to the system. A holiday is also useful to “ring-fence” one or …
Argentina: Mutual Fund Suspensions, 2019, Owen Heaphy, Anmol Makhija
Argentina: Mutual Fund Suspensions, 2019, Owen Heaphy, Anmol Makhija
Journal of Financial Crises
With Argentina facing a liquidity crisis and collapse in demand for government debt, on Wednesday, August 28, 2019, the country's minister of economy, Hernán Lacunza, announced after markets closed that the government was extending the maturity of USD 7 billion of its short-term public debt securities, among other measures. Lacunza stated that domestic retail investors would not be subject to the terms of the maturity extension and would be paid principal and interest on the affected securities per the original maturity schedule. This announcement caused confusion about the treatment of individual investors who held the affected securities indirectly through mutual …
Non-Discriminatory Personalized Pricing, Philipp Strack, Kai Hao Yang
Non-Discriminatory Personalized Pricing, Philipp Strack, Kai Hao Yang
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
A monopolist offers personalized prices to consumers with unit demand. Consumers differ in their values, costs, and \emph{protected characteristics}---such as race or gender. The seller is subject to a non-discrimination constraint: consumers with the same cost, but different protected characteristics must face identical price distributions. Such regulations are present in markets like credit or insurance. We characterize the optimal pricing rule. Under this rule, surplus accrues to both protected groups, but only to those with intermediate values. Strengthening the constraint to cover transaction prices redistributes surplus, harming the low-value group and benefiting the high-value group. Meanwhile, prohibiting the use of …
Efficient Difference-In-Differences And Event Study Estimators, Xiaohong Chen, Pedro H. C. Sant’Anna, Haitian Xie
Efficient Difference-In-Differences And Event Study Estimators, Xiaohong Chen, Pedro H. C. Sant’Anna, Haitian Xie
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper investigates efficient Difference-in-Differences (DiD) and Event Study (ES) estimation using short panel data sets within the heterogeneous treatment effect framework, free from parametric functional form assumptions and allowing for variation in treatment timing. We provide an equivalent characterization of the DiD potential outcome model using sequential conditional moment restrictions on observables, which shows that the DiD identification assumptions typically imply nonparametric overidentification restrictions. We derive the semiparametric efficient influence function (EIF) in closed form for DiD and ES causal parameters under commonly imposed parallel trends assumptions. The EIF is automatically Neyman orthogonal and yields the smallest variance among …