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W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research

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Full-Text Articles in Economics

Evolving Approaches To The Economics Of Public Policy: Views Of Award-Winning Economists, Jean Kimmel Editor Jan 2016

Evolving Approaches To The Economics Of Public Policy: Views Of Award-Winning Economists, Jean Kimmel Editor

Upjohn Press

For policymakers, economics is a useful tool in the development and evaluation of public policy. And like many sciences, economics is evolving to become more interdisciplinary in its approach. Today, economic theory is often used in conjunction with insights gleaned from psychology and sociology to create a more inclusive, real-world approach to implementing public policy. In this book, five award-winning economists tackle a diverse range of topics and show how applied economics has evolved to give policymakers a more nuanced approach to policy development. The award-winning economists included in this volume are Erica Field, Nancy Folbre, Avner Grief, David M. …


Sustaining Social Security In An Era Of Population Aging, John A. Turner Jan 2016

Sustaining Social Security In An Era Of Population Aging, John A. Turner

Upjohn Press

John A. Turner offers a set of reforms for restoring solvency to Social Security that are deemed to have merit in the current political climate. These reforms relate to several vexing issues including increased life expectancy, the growing relationship between income and life expectancy, the declines in the physical demands of jobs, growing income inequality, and the pattern of poverty increasing at older ages.


Surviving Job Loss: Paper Makers In Maine And Minnesota, Kenneth A. Root, Rosemarie J. Park Jan 2016

Surviving Job Loss: Paper Makers In Maine And Minnesota, Kenneth A. Root, Rosemarie J. Park

Upjohn Press

Root and Park examine the plight of long-tenured workers displaced from two paper mills—their paths to reemployment, retirement decisions, and the personal struggles they confront.


The Nature And Role Of Temporary Help Work In The U.S. Economy, Susan N. Houseman, Carolyn J. Heinrich Jan 2016

The Nature And Role Of Temporary Help Work In The U.S. Economy, Susan N. Houseman, Carolyn J. Heinrich

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.


Labor-Demand-Side Economic Development Incentives And Urban Opportunity, Timothy J. Bartik Jan 2016

Labor-Demand-Side Economic Development Incentives And Urban Opportunity, Timothy J. Bartik

Book Chapters

No abstract provided.


Domestic Outsourcing Reduces Wages And Contributes To Rising Inequality, Johannes Schmieder, Deborah Goldschmidt Jan 2016

Domestic Outsourcing Reduces Wages And Contributes To Rising Inequality, Johannes Schmieder, Deborah Goldschmidt

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.


Mothers' Long-Term Employment Patterns, Alexandra Killewald, Xiaolin Zhuo Dec 2015

Mothers' Long-Term Employment Patterns, Alexandra Killewald, Xiaolin Zhuo

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Previous research on maternal employment has disproportionately focused on married, college-educated mothers and examined either current employment status or postpartum return to employment. Following the life course perspective, we instead conceptualize maternal careers as long-term life course patterns. Using data from the NLSY79 and optimal matching, we document four common employment patterns of American mothers over the first 18 years of maternity. About two-thirds follow steady patterns, either full-time employment (38 percent) or steady nonemployment (24 percent). The rest experience “mixed” patterns: long-term part-time employment (20 percent), or a multiyear period of nonemployment following maternity, then a return to employment …


The Production And Stock Of College Graduates For U.S. States, John V. Winters Dec 2015

The Production And Stock Of College Graduates For U.S. States, John V. Winters

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The stock of human capital in an area is important for regional economic growth and development. However, highly educated workers are often quite mobile, and there is a concern that public investments in college graduates may not benefit the state if the college graduates leave the state after finishing their education. This paper examines the relationship between the production of college graduates from a state and the stock of college graduates residing in the state using microdata from the decennial census and American Community Survey. The relationship is examined across states and across cohorts within states. The descriptive analysis suggests …


Migration And Housing Price Effects Of Place-Based College Scholarships, Timothy J. Bartik, Nathan Sotherland Dec 2015

Migration And Housing Price Effects Of Place-Based College Scholarships, Timothy J. Bartik, Nathan Sotherland

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Place-based college scholarships, such as the Kalamazoo Promise, provide students who live in a particular place, and/or who attend a particular school district, with generous college scholarships. An important potential benefit from such “Promise programs” is their short-term effects on local economic development. Generous Promise scholarships provide an incentive for families to locate in a particular place, which may change migration patterns, and potentially boost local employment and housing prices. Using data from the American Community Survey, this paper estimates the average effects of eight relatively generous Promise programs on migration rates and housing prices in their local labor market. …


Benefits Vs. Costs Of Business Incentives, Timothy J. Bartik Dec 2015

Benefits Vs. Costs Of Business Incentives, Timothy J. Bartik

Presentations

No abstract provided.


The Rise Of Domestic Outsourcing And The Evolution Of The German Wage Structure, Deborah Goldschmidt, Johannes Schmieder Dec 2015

The Rise Of Domestic Outsourcing And The Evolution Of The German Wage Structure, Deborah Goldschmidt, Johannes Schmieder

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The nature of the relationship between employers and employees has been changing over the last three decades, with firms increasingly relying on contractors, temp agencies, and franchises rather than hiring employees directly. We investigate the impact of this transformation on the wage structure by following jobs that are moved outside of the boundary of lead employers to contracting firms. For this end we develop a new method for identifying outsourcing of food, cleaning, security, and logistics services in administrative data using the universe of social security records in Germany. We document a dramatic growth of domestic outsourcing in Germany since …


Testing The Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek Theory With A Natural Experiment, Assaf Zimring Dec 2015

Testing The Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek Theory With A Natural Experiment, Assaf Zimring

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper uses the historical episode of the near-elimination of commuting from the West Bank into Israel, which caused a large and rapid expansion of the local labor force in the West Bank, to test the predictions of the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) mode of trade. I use variation between districts in the West Bank to test these predictions, and find strong support for them: Wage changes were not correlated with the size of the shock to the district labor force (Factor Price Insensitivity); Districts that received larger influx of returning commuters shifted production more towards labor intensive industries (Rybczynski effect); And …


Using Linked Survey And Administrative Data To Better Measure Income: Implications For Poverty, Program Effectiveness And Holes In The Safety Net, Bruce D. Meyer, Nikolas Mittag Nov 2015

Using Linked Survey And Administrative Data To Better Measure Income: Implications For Poverty, Program Effectiveness And Holes In The Safety Net, Bruce D. Meyer, Nikolas Mittag

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

We examine the consequences of underreporting of transfer programs in household survey data for several prototypical analyses of low-income populations. We focus on the Current Population Survey (CPS), the source of official poverty and inequality statistics, but provide evidence that our qualitative conclusions are likely to apply to other surveys. We link administrative data for food stamps, TANF, General Assistance, and subsidized housing from New York State to the CPS at the individual level. Program receipt in the CPS is missed for over one-third of housing assistance recipients, 40 percent of food stamp recipients, and 60 percent of TANF and …


Estimating Hispanic-White Wage Gaps Among Women: The Importance Of Controlling For Cost Of Living, Peter Mchenry, Melissa Mcinerney Nov 2015

Estimating Hispanic-White Wage Gaps Among Women: The Importance Of Controlling For Cost Of Living, Peter Mchenry, Melissa Mcinerney

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Despite concern regarding labor market discrimination against Hispanics, previously published estimates show that Hispanic women earn higher hourly wages than white women with similar observable characteristics. This estimated wage premium is likely biased upwards because of the omission of an important control variable: cost of living. We show that Hispanic women live in locations (e.g., cities) with higher costs of living than whites. After we account for cost of living, the estimated Hispanic-white wage differential for non-immigrant women falls by approximately two-thirds. As a result, we find no statistically significant difference in wages between Hispanic and white women in the …


Optimal Social Assistance And Unemployment Insurance In A Life-Cycle Model Of Family Labor Supply And Savings, Peter Haan, Victoria Prowse Nov 2015

Optimal Social Assistance And Unemployment Insurance In A Life-Cycle Model Of Family Labor Supply And Savings, Peter Haan, Victoria Prowse

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

We analyze empirically the optimal design of social insurance and assistance programs when families obtain insurance by making labor supply choices for both spouses. For this purpose, we specify a structural life-cycle model of the labor supply and savings decisions of singles and married couples. Partial insurance against wage and employment shocks is provided by social programs, savings, and the labor supplies of all adult household members. The optimal policy mix focuses mainly on Social Assistance, which provides a permanent universal household income floor, with a minor role for temporary earnings-related Unemployment Insurance. Reflecting that married couples obtain intra-household insurance …


The Pros And Cons Of Sick Pay Schemes: Testing For Contagious Presenteeism And Shirking Behavior, Stefan Pichler, Nicolas R. Ziebarth Nov 2015

The Pros And Cons Of Sick Pay Schemes: Testing For Contagious Presenteeism And Shirking Behavior, Stefan Pichler, Nicolas R. Ziebarth

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper proposes a test for the existence and degree of contagious presenteeism and negative externalities in sickness insurance schemes. First, we theoretically decompose moral hazard into shirking and contagious presenteeism behavior and derive testable conditions. Then, we implement the test exploiting German sick pay reforms and administrative industry-level data on certified sick leave by diagnoses. The labor supply adjustment for contagious diseases is significantly smaller than for noncontagious diseases. Lastly, using Google Flu data and the staggered implementation of U.S. sick leave reforms, we show that flu rates decrease after employees gain access to paid sick leave.


The Effect Of Income On Subjective Well-Being: Evidence From The 2008 Economic Stimulus Tax Rebates, Marta Lachowska Oct 2015

The Effect Of Income On Subjective Well-Being: Evidence From The 2008 Economic Stimulus Tax Rebates, Marta Lachowska

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper uses tax rebate payments from the 2008 economic stimulus to estimate the effect of a one-time change in income on three measures of subjective well-being: life satisfaction, health satisfaction, and affect. The income effect is identified by exploiting the plausibly exogenous variation in the payment schedule of the rebates. Using both ordinary least squares and two-stage least squares estimators, I find that the rebates had a large and positive impact on affect, which is explained by a reduction in feelings of stress and worry. For life satisfaction and health satisfaction, there is weaker evidence of a positive impact. …


Jobless Capital? The Role Of Capital Subsidies, Carlianne E. Patrick Oct 2015

Jobless Capital? The Role Of Capital Subsidies, Carlianne E. Patrick

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Using tax abatements, financial incentives, and public investments to attract (or retain) firms is the primary economic development tool for many local governments. Often local job creation policies focus on increasing capital through grants, low-interest financing, and other economic development incentives. Theory predicts that capital subsidies induce firm behaviors that limit their job creation effects. This paper employs the Incentives Environment Index, constructed from state constitutional provisions that limit and structure the ability of state and local governmental entities to aid private enterprises, and five-year county panels to test theoretical predictions on county capital expenditure and input mixes as well …


Research Highlights From The 2015 Inner City Economic Summit, Kim Zeuli, Haifeng Qian Oct 2015

Research Highlights From The 2015 Inner City Economic Summit, Kim Zeuli, Haifeng Qian

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.


Border Battles: The Influence Of Occupational Licensing On Interstate Migration, Morris M. Kleiner Oct 2015

Border Battles: The Influence Of Occupational Licensing On Interstate Migration, Morris M. Kleiner

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.


Should Ui Eligibility Be Expanded To Low-Earning Workers? Evidence On Employment, Transfer Receipt, And Income From Administrative Data, Pauline Leung, Christopher J. O'Leary Sep 2015

Should Ui Eligibility Be Expanded To Low-Earning Workers? Evidence On Employment, Transfer Receipt, And Income From Administrative Data, Pauline Leung, Christopher J. O'Leary

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Recent efforts to expand unemployment insurance (UI) eligibility are expected to increase low-earning workers’ access to UI. Although the expansion’s aim is to smooth the income and consumption of previously ineligible workers, it is possible that UI benefits simply displace other sources of income. Standard economic models predict that UI delays reemployment, thereby reducing wage income. Additionally, low-earning workers are often eligible for benefits from means-tested programs, which may decrease with UI benefits. In this paper, we estimate the impact of UI eligibility on employment, means-tested program participation, and income after job loss using a unique individual-level administrative data set …


Eligibility Recertification And Dynamic Opt-In Incentives In Income-Tested Social Programs: Evidence From Medicaid/Chip, Zhuan Pei Sep 2015

Eligibility Recertification And Dynamic Opt-In Incentives In Income-Tested Social Programs: Evidence From Medicaid/Chip, Zhuan Pei

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Conventional labor supply studies assume constant eligibility monitoring of income-tested program participants, but this is not true for most programs. For example, states can allow children to enroll in Medicaid/CHIP for 12 months regardless of family income changes. A long recertification period reduces monitoring costs but is predicted to induce program participation by temporary income adjustments. However, I find little evidence of strategic behavior from the 2001 and 2004 Survey of Income and Program Participation. Given the lack of dynamic responses, I propose a framework to compute the optimal recertification period and find 12 months to be its lower bound.


Use Of Unemployment Insurance And Public Employment Services After Leaving Welfare, Christopher J. O'Leary Sep 2015

Use Of Unemployment Insurance And Public Employment Services After Leaving Welfare, Christopher J. O'Leary

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

In this paper I examine the rates at which adults in households recently receiving Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) become jobless, apply for and receive unemployment insurance (UI) benefits, and participate in publicly funded employment services. I also investigate the correlation of UI and employment services receipt with maintenance of self-sufficiency through return to work and independence from TANF. The analysis is based on person-level administrative program records from four of the nine largest states between 1997 and 2003. Evidence suggests that three-quarters of new TANF leavers experience joblessness within three years, and one-quarter of the newly jobless apply …


Effects Of The Minimum Wage On Employment Dynamics, Jonathan Meer, Jeremy West Sep 2015

Effects Of The Minimum Wage On Employment Dynamics, Jonathan Meer, Jeremy West

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The voluminous literature on minimum wages offers little consensus on the extent to which a wage floor impacts employment. We argue that the minimum wage will impact employment over time, through changes in growth rather than an immediate drop in relative employment levels. We conduct simulations showing that commonly-used specifications in this literature, especially those that include state-specific time trends, will not accurately capture these effects. Using three separate state panels of administrative employment data, we find that the minimum wage reduces job growth over a period of several years. These effects are most pronounced for younger workers and in …


The Effect Of Health Insurance On Workers' Compensation Filing: Evidence From The Affordable Care Act's Age-Based Threshold For Dependent Coverage, Marcus Dillender Aug 2015

The Effect Of Health Insurance On Workers' Compensation Filing: Evidence From The Affordable Care Act's Age-Based Threshold For Dependent Coverage, Marcus Dillender

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper identifies the effect of health insurance on workers' compensation (WC) filing for young adults by implementing a regression discontinuity design using WC medical claims data from Texas. The results suggest health insurance factors into the decision to have WC pay for discretionary care. The implied instrumental variables estimates suggest a 10 percentage point decrease in health insurance coverage increases WC bills by 15.3 percent. Despite the large impact of health insurance on the number of WC bills, the additional cost to WC at age 26 appears to be small as most of the increase comes from small bills.


The Effect Of The Earned Income Tax Credit In The District Of Columbia On Poverty And Income Dynamics, Bradley L. Hardy, Daniel Muhammad, Rhucha Samudra Jul 2015

The Effect Of The Earned Income Tax Credit In The District Of Columbia On Poverty And Income Dynamics, Bradley L. Hardy, Daniel Muhammad, Rhucha Samudra

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Using unique longitudinal administrative tax panel data for the District of Columbia (DC), we assess the combined effect of the DC supplemental earned income tax credit (EITC) and the federal EITC on poverty and income dynamics within Washington, DC, from 2001 to 2011. The EITC in DC merits investigation, as the DC supplement to the federal credit is the largest in the nation. The supplemental DC EITC was enacted in 2000, and has been expanded from 10 percent of the federal credit in 2001 to 40 percent as of 2009. To implement the study, we estimate least squares models with …


What Is The Relation Between Public Pensions And Private Savings?, Marta Lachowska, Michał Myck Jul 2015

What Is The Relation Between Public Pensions And Private Savings?, Marta Lachowska, Michał Myck

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.


Economic And Fiscal Impact Of The Proposed South Haven Community Event Center, George A. Erickcek Jun 2015

Economic And Fiscal Impact Of The Proposed South Haven Community Event Center, George A. Erickcek

Reports

No abstract provided.


Occupational Outlook For The Construction Industry In The Greater Grand Rapids-Holland-Muskegon Region, Brian Pittelko, George A. Erickcek Jun 2015

Occupational Outlook For The Construction Industry In The Greater Grand Rapids-Holland-Muskegon Region, Brian Pittelko, George A. Erickcek

Reports

No abstract provided.


The Potential Effects Of Federal Health Insurance Reforms On Employment Arrangements And Compensation, Marcus Dillender, Carolyn J. Heinrich, Susan N. Houseman May 2015

The Potential Effects Of Federal Health Insurance Reforms On Employment Arrangements And Compensation, Marcus Dillender, Carolyn J. Heinrich, Susan N. Houseman

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) presents an opportunity to significantly improve compensation for American workers. A potential concern, though, is that employers will circumvent the employer mandate by increasing their use of workers in staffing arrangements that are not covered by the mandate: workers averaging less than 30 hours per week, working on a temporary basis, or working in organizations with fewer than 50 full-time employees. In this paper, we shed light on the likely effects that the ACA will have on employment arrangements. We first examine how part-time employment in Massachusetts changed after its health insurance reform, which is …