Economics Commons^™

A Dynamic Network Perspective On The Latent Group Structure Of Cryptocurrencies, Li Guo, Yubo Tao, Wolfgang Karl Hardle

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we study the latent group structure in cryptocurrencies market by forming a dynamic return inferred network with coin attributions. We develop a dynamic covariate-assisted spectral clustering method to detect the communities in dynamic network framework and prove its uniform consistency along the horizons. Applying our new method, we show the return inferred network structure and coin attributions, including algorithms and proof types, jointly determine the market segmentation. Based on the network model, we propose a novel "hard-to-value" measure using the centrality scores. Further analysis reveals that the group with a lower centrality score exhibits stronger short-term return …

Maskin Meets Abreu And Matsushima, Yi-Chun Chen, Takashi Kunimoto, Yifei Sun, Siyang Xiong

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study the classical Nash implementation problem due to Maskin (1999), but allow for the use of lottery and monetary transfer as in Abreu and Matsushima (1992, 1994). We therefore unify two well-established but somewhat orthogonal approaches of implementation theory. We first show that Maskin monotonicity is a necessary and sufficient condition for pure-strategy Nash implementation by a direct mechanism. Second, taking mixed strategies into consideration, we show that Maskin monotonicity is a necessary and sufficient condition for mixed-strategy Nash implementation by a finite (albeit indirect) mechanism. Third, we extend our analysis to implementation in rationalizable strategies. In contrast to …

The Effect Of Non-Contributory Pensions On Labour Supply And Private Income Transfers: Evidence From Singapore, Yanying Chen, Yi Jin Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

Non-contributory pensions are becoming increasingly prevalent worldwide. As their effects are likely to be context-dependent, evaluating their effects in a wide range of settings is important for establishing the external validity of the non-contributory pension literature. We use a new monthly panel dataset and a difference-in-differences strategy to study the effect of a new non-contributory pension in Singapore (the Silver Support Scheme or SSS) on labour supply, work expectations, private cash transfers, and expenditure, 1 year after its implementation. We find no evidence that receiving SSS payouts led to a fall in labour supply, work expectations, or the receipt of …

Income And Subjective Well-Being: Evidence From Singapore's First National Non-Contributory Pension, Yanying Chen, Yi Jin Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

We use a new monthly panel and a difference-in-differences strategy to study the effects of an exogenous permanent income shock on subjective well-being along previously unexplored dimensions. This permanent income shock is the introduction of Singapore’s first national non-contributory pension, the Silver Support Scheme. The pension improved the life satisfaction of recipients, and appeared to be driven by social, household income, and economic satisfaction. Consistent with the predictions of standard consumption-savings models, well-being improved when the shock was unanticipated (at announcement), but did not improve significantly further when the shock was anticipated (at disbursement). In addition, we find evidence that …

Retirement Planning In The Age Of Disruption, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Do not underestimate retirement needs, plan early, and update your skills consistently to build up your nest-egg

Shorter business cycles, disruptive technology, and demographic changes have rendered single-employer careers a near impossibility. The need to learn, unlearn, and relearn to forge new career paths is now an accepted inevitability.

Inflation Expectations In Singapore: A Behavioural Approach, Alexander Clark, Aurobindo Ghosh, Samuel Hanes

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The expectations of economic agents have significant impact on their decisions and are key determinants of macroeconomic outcomes such as inflation, economic growth and unemployment. For example, if a worker believes that consumer prices will rise sharply next year, she would demand a wage increase. Similarly, a homeowner with a fixed interest mortgage might make an early repayment if she expects price levels to fall, knowing that the real value of her mortgage debt will increase. In these cases, expectations about inflation could lead to changes in behaviour and in the aggregate, influence prices and become self-fulfilling.

Quantitative Easing Auctions Of Treasury Bonds, Zhaogang Song, Haoxiang Zhu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The Federal Reserve uses (reverse) auctions to implement its purchases of Treasury bonds in quantitative easing (QE). To evaluate dealers’ offers across multiple bonds, the Fed relies on its internal yield curve model, fitted to secondary market bond prices. From November 2010 to September 2011, a one standard deviation increase in the cheapness of a Treasury bond (how much the market price of the bond is below a model-implied value) increases the Fed’s purchase quantity of that bond by 276 million and increases the auction costs on that bond by 2.6 cents per $100 par value, controlling for standard covariates. …

Determination Of Different Types Of Fixed Effects In Three-Dimensional Panels, Xun Lu, Ke Miao, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we propose a jackknife method to determine the type of fixed effects in three-dimensional panel data models. We show that with probability approaching 1, the method can select the correct type of fixed effects in the presence of only weak serial or cross-sectional dependence among the error terms. In the presence of strong serial correlation, we propose a modified jackknife method and justify its selection consistency. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the excellent finite sample performance of our method. Applications to two datasets in macroeconomics and international trade reveal the usefulness of our method.

Investment And The Long Swings Of Unemployment, Hian Teck Hoon, Katsimi Margarita, Gylfi Zoega

Research Collection School Of Economics

We estimate the relationship between investment and unemployment over the time period 1960-2015 in 20 OECD countries. While neoclassical growth theory typically assumes full employment – with no effect of investment on unemployment – we find that over our sample period covering more than five decades, a statistically significant negative relationship does exist: when investment fell, unemployment increased. When the time period is broken down into two sub-periods to take account of the Great Recession, we find that the estimated coefficient of investment is slightly smaller when the period 2001-2015 is added to the 1960-2000 period. We also find a …

Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Accuracy Using High Frequency Data, Jia Li, Andrew J. Patton

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper provides a general framework that enables many existing inference methods for predictive accuracy to be used in applications that involve forecasts of latent target variables. Such applications include the forecasting of volatility, correlation, beta, quadratic variation, jump variation, and other functionals of an underlying continuous-time process. We provide primitive conditions under which a “negligibility” result holds, and thus the asymptotic size of standard predictive accuracy tests, implemented using a high-frequency proxy for the latent variable, is controlled. An extensive simulation study verifies that the asymptotic results apply in a range of empirically relevant applications, and an empirical application …

The Indian Diaspora, Culture, And Foreign Policy, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Indians living overseas can be a bridge to a rapidly changing world

In the United Nations “International Migration Report 2015”, India had the largest diaspora population in the world with 16 million individuals born in the country but living outside of it. It’s a 100 percent increase from the 8 million in 2000, with an increasing number making their way to the United States where Indians make up the second largest immigrant group after Mexicans.

The Shipping Industry In 2018, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Despite oversupply that continues to suppress container freight rates, positive global macroeconomic trends bode well for shipowners

Between Commerce And Empire: David Hume, Colonial Slavery, And Commercial Incivility, Onur Ulas Ince

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

Eighteenth-century Enlightenment thought has recently been reclaimed as arobust, albeit short-lived, cosmopolitan critique of European imperialism. Thisessay complicates this interpretation through a study of David Hume’s reflectionson commerce, empire, and slavery. I argue that while Hume condemned thecolonial system of monopoly, war, and conquest, his strictures against empiredid not extend to colonial slavery in the Atlantic. This was because colonialslavery represented a manifestly uncivilinstitution when judged by enlightened metropolitan sensibilities, yet also adecisively commercial institutionpivotal to the eighteenth-century global economy. Confronted by the paradoxical“commercial incivility” of modern slavery, Hume opted for disavowing the linkbetween slavery and commerce, and confined his …

Research Note: Investor Perceptions Of Comparable-To-Industry Versus Higher-Than-Industry Pay Ratio Disclosures, Khim Kelly, Jean Lin Seow

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

The usefulness of the CEO-to-employee pay ratio disclosure to investors is subject to significant debate. Our experiment examines participant responses to higher-than-industry and comparable-to-industry pay ratio disclosures in a company. A prior experiment by Kelly and Seow (2016) (hereafter KS) found that incrementally disclosing a higher-than-industry pay ratio on top of higher-than-industry CEO pay had indirect negative effects on the company’s perceived investment potential, via negative perceptions about the fairness of the CEO pay and workplace climate. We find that the negative indirect effects of pay ratio disclosures on perceived investment potential in KS are replicable in our study, and …

House Price And Co-Residence With Older Parents: Evidence From China, Daichun Yi, Xiaoying Deng, Gang-Zhi Fan, Seow Eng Ong

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Numerous Chinese families choose to reside together with their elderly parents due to the considerable impacts of conventional values such as filial duty in Chinese society. However, as house prices rocketed up in major Chinese cities over the past decade, this arrangement is facing a sizeable challenge, therefore also raising new research question about it. This paper attempts to investigate the phenomenon of co-residence of adult children with their elderly parents in China. Using the 2013 data of China Household Finance Survey (CHFS), we document that house price is indeed a significant determinant for the pattern of intergenerational co-residence. Our …

Resource Scarcity, Effort, And Performance In Physically Demanding Jobs: An Evolutionary Explanation, Marko Pitesa, Stefan Thau

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Based on evolutionary theory, we predicted that cues of resource scarcity in the environment (e.g., news of droughts or food shortages) lead people to reduce their effort and performance in physically demanding work. We tested this prediction in a 2-wave field survey among employees and replicated it experimentally in the lab. In Study 1, employees who perceived resources in the environment to be scarce reported exerting less effort when their jobs involved much (but not little) physical work. In Study 2, participants who read that resources in the environment were scarce performed worse on a task demanding more (carrying books) …

Extremal Quantile Regressions For Selection Models And The Black-White Wage Gap, Xavier D'Haultfoeuille, Arnaud Maurel, Yichong Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider the estimation of a semiparametric sample selection model without instrument or large support regressor. Identification relies on the independence between the covariates and selection, for arbitrarily large values of the outcome. We propose a simple estimator based on extremal quantile regression and establish its asymptotic normality by extending previous results on extremal quantile regressions to allow for selection. Finally, we apply our method to estimate the black-white wage gap among males from the NLSY79 and NLSY97. We find that premarket factors such as AFQT and family background play a key role in explaining the black-white wage gap.

Deadlier Road Accidents? Traffic Safety Regulations And Heterogeneous Motorists’ Behavior, Christine Ho, Madhav S. Aney

Research Collection School Of Economics

In 2003, China enacted the Road Traffic Safety Law in an attempt to promote traffic safety.We employ a difference-in-differences strategy on province level data, where fire accidentsare used as a control group for road accidents, to estimate the effects of the law on road accidents and casualties. Our findings suggest that while the law was successful in decreasing thenumber of accidents and casualties, the ratio of deaths to accidents and injuries to accidentsincreased. Exploring the potential channels, we find no evidence that “hit-and-kill” incentives,that is, incentives for motorists to kill the pedestrians that they hit due to China’s peculiar personal …

The Global Economic Outlook In 2018, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Oil prices will not reach US$120, more U.S. Fed rate hikes expected, and Brexit’s fallout to remain largely within Europe

Education As A Catalyst For Socio-Economic Development In South Africa, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

In order to progress socially and economically, a united South Africa will have to focus on an education sector hindered by apartheid era policies.

What Factors Determine Thesubsidiary Mode Of Overseas R&D By Developing-Country Mnes? Empirical Evidence From Chinese Subsidiaries Abroad, Yanyu Wang, Wei Xie, Jizhen Li, Chenxi Liu

PhD Student’s Publications Collection

This study examines the determinants of the subsidiary modes of overseas research anddevelopment (R&D) by Chinese multinational enterprises (MNEs). Based on resource-based view and absorptive capabilities, we propose that financial resources and technologi-cal resources have different effects on the selection of overseas R&D subsidiary modes,which are competence-exploiting mode or competence-creating mode. This is supportedby the empirical results in this paper using data from a survey of 40 Chinese overseasR&D subsidiaries. The results demonstrate that the parent firms with richer financialresources and more R&D expenses prefer the competence-exploiting mode, while the par-ent firms with more R&D personnel favor the competence-creating mode. …

Impact Of Electrification On Children's Nutritional Status In Rural Bangladesh, Tomoki Fujii, Abu S. Shonchoy, Sijia Xu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Access to electricity has the potential to improve the nutritional status of children by a variety of pathways such as increased wealth, reduced fertility through the change in time use, spread of information through technology such as TV, and improved health care services. Yet, the relationship between electrification and children’s nutritional status is rarely explored in the literature. We attempt to fill this lacuna by offering microeconometric evidence from rural Bangladesh, where a rapid expansion of electrification and significant improvement in children’s nutritional status were observed in the past two decades. We find that access to electricity has a positive …

Integrated Deviance Information Criterion For Latent Variable Models, Yong Li, Jun Yu, Tao Zeng

Research Collection School Of Economics

Deviance information criterion (DIC) has been widely used for Bayesian model comparison, especially after Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to estimate candidate models. This paper studies the problem of using DIC to compare latent variable models after the models are estimated by MCMC together with the data augmentation technique. Our contributions are twofold. First, we show that when MCMC is used with data augmentation, it undermines theoretical underpinnings of DIC. As a result, by treating latent variables as parameters, the widely used way of constructing DIC based on the conditional likelihood, although facilitating computation, should not be used. …

On Random Social Choice Functions With The Tops-Only Property, Shurojit Chatterji, Huaxia Zeng

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study the standard voting model with randomization. A Random Social Choice Function (or RSCF) satisfies the tops-only property if the social lottery under each preference profile depends only on the peaks of voters' preferences. We identify a general condition on domains of preferences (the Interior Property and the Exterior Property) which ensures that every strategy-proof RSCF satisfying unanimity has the tops-only property. We show that our condition applies to important classes of voting domains which include restricted connected domains (Sato, 2013) and the multi-dimensional single-peaked domain (Barberà et al., 1993). As an application of our result, we show that …

Limit Theory For Mildly Integrated Process With Intercept, Yijie Fei

Research Collection School Of Economics

Some asymptotic results are given for first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) time series with two features: (i). a nonzero constant intercept (ii). a root moderately deviating from unity. Both stationary and explosive sides are studied. It is shown that the inclusion of intercept will change drastically the large sample properties of the least-squares (LS) estimator obtained in Phillips and Magdalinos (2007, PM hereafter). For near-stationary case, only an unusual convergence of a linear combination of intercept and AR coefficient can be derived. For near-explosive case, on the other hand, the limiting distributions of two estimators will be independent and Gaussian, with conventional …

Barriers To Labor Migration For The Rural Poor: Experimental Evidence From A Vocational Training Program In Bangladesh, Abu S. Shonchoy, Tomoki Fujii, Selim Raihan

Research Collection School Of Economics

Vocational training programs aimed at rapidly growing sectors have the potential to reduce skill gaps as well as improve income and employment possibilities. Such programs have often been unsuccessful because they are not driven by industry demand and market linkages. Also, they do not tackle other barriers faced by trainees, such as savings and credit constraints and the uncertainty of migration. We introduced a training "plus'' program for the apparel sector jobs offered to the poor, rural households in northern Bangladesh, where we relaxed some of these constraints in a rigorous Randomized Control Trial (RCT) setting. Analyzing the program uptake …

A Large Class Of Strategy-Proof Exchange Rules With Single-Peaked Preferences, Peng Liu

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study the classical house exchange problem (Shapley and Scarf (1974)) and identified a large class of rules, each of which is strategy-proof, efficient, and individually rational with single-peaked preferences. These rules are generalisations of Gale’s top trading cycles rule: In each step a subset of houses are allowed to be traded along top trading cycles and in particular, the next step subset of trading houses may depend on the exchanges happened already. We believe that the flexibility introduced by this class of rules is desirable when the designer faces some context-specific requirements.

Industrial Output Fluctuations In Developing Countries: General Equilibrium Consequences Of Agricultural Productivity Shocks, Iona Hyojung Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper shows that a negative shock to agricultural productivity may increase food prices, and labor and capital can move away from manufacturing into agriculture to meet the subsistence requirement for food. This effect depends on income levels and openness to trade. Using annual manufacturing data and rainfall shocks as the instrument for crop yields (proxy for agricultural productivity), I find that an exogenous decline in yield decreases manufacturing output as well as employment and capital investment in manufacturing. Overall, crop yield variation can explain up to 44% of industrial output fluctuations in developing countries (rainfall shocks cause 31% of …

On Random Social Choice Functions With The Tops-Only Property, Shurojit Chatterji, Huaxia Zeng

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study the standard voting model with randomization. A Random Social Choice Function (or RSCF) satisfies the tops-only property if the social lottery under each preference profile depends only on the peaks of voters' preferences. We identify a general condition on domains of preferences (the Interior Property and the Exterior Property) which ensures that every strategy-proof RSCF satisfying unanimity has the tops-only property. We show that our condition applies to important classes of voting domains which include restricted connected domains (Sato, 2013) and the multi-dimensional single-peaked domain (Barberà et al., 1993). As an application of our result, we show that …

Return And Volatility Spillovers Between The Renminbi And Asian Currencies, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper examines the extent of interdependence between the Chinese Renminbi and Asian currenciesafter the global financial crisis. We combine the distinct influence of offshore Renminbi with the impact ofthe onshore rate on eight Asian currencies (including the Australian dollar). Diebold-Yilmaz spilloverindexes reveal Asian foreign exchange markets are subject to considerable cross-border transmissions. Interms of the US dollar bilateral exchange rates, cross-border transfers of daily return are strongercompared to daily volatility reflecting currency management by regional authorities to curb excessiveexchange rate volatility. Return spillovers from the Renminbi markets to individual Asian foreignexchange markets are generally on par with that from …