Economics Commons^™

China And India In 2018, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts different trajectories for the world’s two most populous countries.

Spotlight On Venture In Israel And China, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Israel has always been dubbed the “Startup Nation”. With 140 scientists, technicians, and engineers per 10,000 employees, it boasts the highest number of scientists and technology professionals per capita in the world. More than 250 multinational corporations, including Google, Apple and Microsoft, have R&D or innovation centers in the country.

In Good Company: In The Future, Every Business Might Be Social, Christian Petroske

Social Space

It sounds like a riddle: why would Coca Cola, one of the biggest soft drinks companies in the world, be investing in a cause to empower fi ve million female entrepreneurs globally by 2020? It’s true:1 the Coca Cola Company’s initiative, called 5by20, is a forerunning example of a trend sweeping the corporate world. This trend is known by many names, the foremost of which are “shared value”, “inclusive business” or “sustainable business”. Their defi nitions can seem murky at fi rst, but these terms share a common thread. They sit at the intersection of economy and society, one that …

Informal Institutions And Comparative Advantage Of South-Based Mnes: Theory And Evidence, Pao-Li Chang

Research Collection School of Economics

This paper builds a theory to characterize the comparative advantage of South-based MNEs rooted in institutional qualities. MNEs headquartered in countries of poorer state institutions are hypothesized to invest more in `informal institutions', and as an optimal response, undertake FDI in countries of weaker institutions, all else being equal. At the aggregate, MNEs generate more net profits in countries of weaker institutions, the poorer the institutional environment at home. Extensive tests of the theory are conducted using bilateral FDI volumes for 219 economies in year 2001--2010. The results indicate a statistically significant and robust institutional complementarity effect in bilateral FDI …

Sequentially Testing Polynomial Model Hypotheses Using Power Transforms Of Regressors, Jin Seo Cho, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

We provide a methodology for testing a polynomial model hypothesis by generalizing the approach and results of Baek, Cho, and Phillips (Journal of Econometrics, 2015, 187, 376–384; BCP), which test for neglected nonlinearity using power transforms of regressors against arbitrary nonlinearity. We use the BCP quasi-likelihood ratio test and deal with the new multifold identification problem that arises under the null of the polynomial model. The approach leads to convenient asymptotic theory for inference, has omnibus power against general nonlinear alternatives, and allows estimation of an unknown polynomial degree in a model by way of sequential testing, a technique that …

Essays In Commodities And Freight Markets, Nelson Yap

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Chapter 1: Structural Changes in Functional Curves: Estimation and Testing

Abstract: This paper considers the estimation and testing of structural changes in functional curves that occurs at an unknown date. The functional principal component analysis is applied to the random functional curves, decomposing them into interpretable simple latent functions and random scalars. We model the random scalars using a simple autoregressive model and test for a change in parameters that occur at an unknown date. This method is applied to the crude oil futures market to estimate and date possible structural breaks during OPEC announcement periods from 1984 to 2017.

Three Essays On Social Insurance, Jessica Ya Sun

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation consists of three chapters on the economics of social insurance. Each chapter explores an aspect of the evaluation and design of social insurance in terms of nutrition, healthcare and unemployment.

The first chapter, Kim, Fleisher and Sun (2016) report evidence of long-term adverse health impacts of fetal malnutrition exposure of middle-aged survivors of the 1959-1961 China Famine using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. We find that fetal exposure to malnutrition has large and long lasting impacts on both physical health and cognitive abilities, including the risks of suffering a stroke, physical disabilities in speech, …

Extremal Quantile Treatment Effects, Yichong Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper establishes an asymptotic theory and inference method for quantile treatment effect estimators when the quantile index is close to or equal to zero. Such quantile treatment effects are of interest in many applications, such as the effect of maternal smoking on an infant’s adverse birth outcomes. When the quantile index is close to zero, the sparsity of data jeopardizes conventional asymptotic theory and bootstrap inference. When the quantile index is zero, there are no existing inference methods directly applicable in the treatment effect context. This paper addresses both of these issues by proposing new inference methods that are …

Informing Medicare's Two-Midnight Rule Policy With An Analysis Of Hospital-Based Long Observation Stays, Brad Wright, Xuan Zhang, Momotazur Rahman, Keith Kocher

Research Collection School Of Economics

Outpatient observation stays are increasingly substituting for standard inpatient hospitalizations. In 2013, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services adopted the controversial Two-Midnight Rule policy to curb long observation stays and better define the use of hospital-based observation services versus inpatient hospitalizations. We seek to determine the extent to which Medicare beneficiaries exposed to long observation stays (>48 hours) are clinically similar to those with short observation stays (≤48 hours) because this has relevance to the Two-Midnight Rule.\nUsing 100% Medicare claims data from 2008 to 2010, we identified all patients with long observation stays (>48 hours) who were …

Pythagorean Generalization Of Testing The Equality Of Two Symmetric Positive Definite Matrices, Jin Seo Cho, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

We provide a new test for equality of two symmetric positive-definite matrices that leads to a convenient mechanism for testing specification using the information matrix equality or the sandwich asymptotic covariance matrix of the GMM estimator. The test relies on a new characterization of equality between two k dimensional symmetric positive-definite matrices A and B: the traces of AB−1 and BA−1 are equal to k if and only if A=B. Using this simple criterion, we introduce a class of omnibus test statistics for equality and examine their null and local alternative approximations under some mild regularity conditions. A preferred test …

The Impact Of The Cost Of Car Ownership On House Price Gradient In Singapore, Naqun Huang, Jing Li, Amanda Ross

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper examines the extent to which a change in the cost of car ownership affects the house price gradient with respect to distance from the central business district (CBD). Theory suggests that if the cost of car ownership increases, then people will shift towards other modes of transportation, thus reducing house prices farther away from the CBD. However, the cost of car ownership is likely to be endogenous and correlated with various unobserved factors that also contribute to a change in the house price gradient. To obtain causal effects, we exploit a unique feature of Singapore’s car registration process. …

Universalism And The Value Of Political Power, Yumi Koh

Research Collection School Of Economics

While legislatures typically use majority rule to allocate a budget in distributive legislation, near-unanimous consent over the broad allocation of benefits is pervasive. I develop a game-theoretic model where players strategically interact in a universal coalition to determine allocations, with non-cooperative bargaining as a threat point for the breakdown of cooperation. To quantify the effects of political power and actual needs on the agreed-upon allocation, I structurally estimate the model using the "Bridge Bill Capital Budget" in 1992. I find that 9.58% of the budget would be allocated differently if allocations were determined only based on actual needs.

Contributors Of Singaporean Youths' Wellbeing: Life Goals, Family-Community-Nation Capitals, Opportunity And Social Mobility, Kong Weng Ho

Research Collection School Of Economics

Life goals induce one’s current investment and set one’s expectations of future outcomes, affecting one’s current state of subjective wellbeing. Using National Youth Survey (NYS) 2016, which has a representative sample of Singaporean youths, we find that non-zero-sum life goals such as family-oriented life goals and altruism-oriented life goals enhance happiness and life satisfaction of Singaporean youths while career-oriented life goals, zero-sum in nature, reduce subjective wellbeing. Apart from personal motivations or life aspirations, perceived social mobility (in terms of career opportunity and meritocracy) matters positively in the subjective wellbeing of both youths in school and in the workforce. Family …

We’Re Less Likely To Collaborate In Bad Economic Times, Nina Sirola

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In the fall of 1930, the U.S. economy was on a path to recovery following a contraction that occurred the year before. However, worries about the state of the economy, and the banking system in particular, prompted an increasing number of bank customers to attempt to withdraw their funds, an event known as a bank run. Because banks normally keep only a small proportion of deposits in cash, bank runs create a self-fulfilling prophecy such that initial concerns about banks’ possible insolvency ultimately cause insolvency. The bank run of 1930 resulted in the worst economic downturn in the modern history, …

Sequential Auctions With Decreasing Reserve Prices., Massimiliano Landi, Domenico Menicucci

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study sequential sealed bid auctions with decreasing reserve prices when there are two identical objects for sale and unit-demand bidders (existing literature has dealt with the case of weakly increasing reserve prices). Under decreasing reserve prices bidders may have an incentive not to bid in the first auction, and no equilibrium exists with a strictly increasing stage one bidding function. However, we find that an equilibrium always exists, and its shape depends on the distance between the two reserve prices. The equilibrium exhibits some pooling at the stage one auction, which disappears in the limit as the number of …

Evidence Of Racial And Geographic Disparities In The Use Of Medicare Observation Stays And Subsequent Patient Outcomes Relative To Short-Stay Hospitalizations, Brad Wright, Xuan Zhang, Momotazur Rahman, Mahshid Abir, Padmaja Ayyagari, Keith E. Kocher

Research Collection School Of Economics

To examine racial and geographic disparities in the use of-and outcomes associated with-Medicare observation stays versus short-stay hospitalizations.\nWe used 2007-2010 fee-for-service Medicare claims, including 3,555,994 observation and short-stay hospitalizations for individuals over age 65. We estimated linear probability models with hospital fixed effects to identify within-facility disparities in observation stay use, and estimated in-hospital mortality, and 30- and 90-day post-discharge mortality, return ED visits, and hospital readmissions as a function of placement in observation using linear probability models, propensity-score matching, and interaction terms.\nWe identified racial and geographic disparities in the likelihood of observation stay use within hospitals (blacks 3.9 percentage …

Bayesian Analysis Of Bubbles In Asset Prices, Andras Fulop, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

We develop a new asset price model where the dynamic structure of the asset price, after the fundamental value is removed, is subject to two different regimes. One regime reflects the normal period where the asset price divided by the dividend is assumed to follow a mean-reverting process around a stochastic long run mean. This latter is allowed to account for possible smooth structural change. The second regime reflects the bubble period with explosive behavior. Stochastic switches between two regimes and non-constant probabilities of exit from the bubble regime are both allowed. A Bayesian learning approach is employed to jointly …

Inference In Continuous Systems With Mildly Explosive Regressors, Ye Chen, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

New limit theory is developed for co-moving systems with explosive processes, connecting continuous and discrete time formulations. The theory uses double asymptotics with infill (as the sampling interval tends to zero) and large time span asymptotics. The limit theory explicitly involves initial conditions, allows for drift in the system, is provided for single and multiple explosive regressors, and is feasible to implement in practice. Simulations show that double asymptotics deliver a good approximation to the finite sample distribution, with both finite sample and asymptotic distributions showing sensitivity to initial conditions. The methods are implemented in the US real estate market …

Clogged Intermediation: Were Home Buyers Crowded Out?, Hyunsoo Choi, Hyun-Soo Choi, Jung-Eun Kim

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Post-crisis policy interventions significantly increased the demand for mortgage refinancing, but could this surge in refinancing applications have crowded out the supply of credit to home buyers? In this paper, we examine two frictions that hamper financial intermediation and result in banks' substitution of home purchase loans for refinance loans: The risk capacity channel through which banks with limited risk appetites prefer safer loans over riskier loans, and the operating capacity channel through which banks with limited operating capacities prefer applications that require less screening time. We find that following the recent financial crisis, banks facing these capacity constraints indeed …

Identifying Latent Group Structures In Nonlinear Panels, Wuyi Wang, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose a procedure to identify latent group structures in nonlinear panel data models where some regression coefficients are heterogeneous across groups but homogeneous within a group and the group number and membership are unknown. To identify the group structures, we consider the order statistics for the preliminary unconstrained consistent estimators of the regression coefficients and translate the problem of classification into the problem of break detection. Then we extend the sequential binary segmentation algorithm of Bai (1997) for break detection from the time series setup to the panel data framework. We demonstrate that our method is able to identify …

Business Time Sampling Scheme With Applications To Testing Semi-Martingale Hypothesis And Estimating Integrated Volatility, Yingjie Dong, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose a new method to implement the Business Time Sampling (BTS) scheme for high-frequency financial data. We compute a time-transformation (TT) function using the intraday integrated volatility estimated by a jump-robust method. The BTS transactions are obtained using the inverse of the TT function. Using our sampled BTS transactions, we test the semi-martingale hypothesis of the stock log-price process and estimate the daily realized volatility. Our method improves the normality approximation of the standardized business-time return distribution. Our Monte Carlo results show that the integrated volatility estimates using our proposed sampling strategy provide smaller root mean-squared error.

Cultural Preferences In International Trade: Evidence From The Globalization Of Korean Pop Culture, Pao-Li Chang, Iona Hyojung Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Korean pop culture (TVdramas and K-pop music) has grown immensely popular across the globe over thepast two decades. This paper analyzes its impacts on international trade. We compilea cross-country panel dataset of South Korea's TV show exports to over 150countries for the period of 1998{2014. These variations in exposure to Koreanpop cultures are used to identify changes in consumer preferences for Koreanmerchandise across time, countries, and products (at the HS 4-digit level).First, we find that more Korean TV show exports significantly increase Koreanexports of goods for women, while the effects are much smaller on men'smerchandise. This strongly supports the …

Clogged Intermediation: Were Home Buyers Crowded Out?, Hyunsoo Choi, Hyun-Soo Choi, Jung-Eun Kim

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Post-crisis policy interventions significantly increased the demand for mortgage refinancing, but could this surge in refinancing applications have crowded out the supply of credit to home buyers? In this paper, we examine two frictions that hamper financial intermediation and result in banks' substitution of home purchase loans for refinance loans: The risk capacity channel through which banks with limited risk appetites prefer safer loans over riskier loans, and the operating capacity channel through which banks with limited operating capacities prefer applications that require less screening time. We find that following the recent financial crisis, banks facing these capacity constraints indeed …

Inference In Continuous Systems With Mildly Explosive Regressors, Ye Chen, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

New limit theory is developed for co-moving systems with explosive processes, connecting continuous and discrete time formulations. The theory uses double asymptotics with infill (as the sampling interval tends to zero) and large time span asymptotics. The limit theory explicitly involves initial conditions, allows for drift in the system, is provided for single and multiple explosive regressors, and is feasible to implement in practice. Simulations show that double asymptotics deliver a good approximation to the finite sample distribution, with both finite sample and asymptotic distributions showing sensitivity to initial conditions. The methods are implemented in the US real estate market …

Volatility Spillovers And Linkages In Asian Stock Markets, Hwee Kwan Chow

Research Collection School Of Economics

Diebold–Yilmaz spillover indexes are computed for weekly return volatilities based on daily benchmark stock indexes of the US, the UK, and 10 Asian countries. We found (i) the strengthening of overall volatility spillovers is not a temporary surge but persisted after the crisis; (ii) the susceptibility of individual Asian stock markets to inward volatility transfers is linked to its degree of openness; and (iii) the Asian bourses are becoming more important emitters of financial shocks since the crisis. Rolling regressions on volatility linkages reveal the relative dominance of the US over the Japanese and Chinese bourses, and the level of …

Dynamic Poverty Decomposition Analysis: An Application To The Philippines, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we propose a new method of poverty decomposition. Our method remedies the shortcomings of existing methods and has some desirable properties such as time-revision consistency and subperiod additivity. It integrates the existing methods of growth-redistribution decomposition and sector based decomposition, because it allows us to decompose poverty change into growth and redistribution components for each group (e.g., regions or sectors) in the economy. We extend out method to have six components and provide empirical application to the Philippines for the period of 1985 to 2009.

The Sustainability Edge: Driving Top-Line Growth With Triple-Bottom-Line Thinking, Jagdish Sheth, Suhas Apte

Asian Management Insights

How to drive top-line growth with triple-bottom-line thinking.

A New Toolkit For Thailand 4.0, Abhisit Vejjajiva, Philip Charles Zerrillo

Asian Management Insights

The Prime Minister of Thailand from 2008 to 2011 and the current leader of the Democrat Party, Abhisit Vejjajiva, addresses the challenges facing the Thai economy today, in this interview with Philip Zerrillo.

Estimating Finite-Horizon Life-Cycle Models: A Quasi-Bayesian Approach, Xiaobin Liu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper proposes a quasi-Bayesian approach for structural parameters in finite-horizon life-cycle models. This approach circumvents the numerical evaluation of the gradient of the objective function and alleviates the local optimum problem. The asymptotic normality of the estimators with and without approximation errors is derived. The proposed estimators reach the semiparametric eciency bound in the general methods of moment (GMM) framework. Both the estimators and the corresponding asymptotic covariance are readily computable. The estimation procedure is easy to parallel so that the graphic processing unit (GPU) can be used to enhance the computational speed. The estimation procedure is illustrated using …

Determining The Number Of Groups In Latent Panel Structures With An Application To Income And Democracy, Xun Lu, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider a latent group panel structure as recently studied by Su, Shi, and Phillips (2014), where the number of groups is unknown and has to be determined empirically. We propose a testing procedure to determine the number of roups. Our test is a residualbased LM-type test. We show that after being appropriately standardized, our test is asymptotically normally distributed under the null hypothesis of a given number of groups and has power to detect deviations from the null. Monte Carlo simulations show that our test performs remarkably well in finite samples. We apply our method to study the effect …