Economics Commons^™

Financial Bubble Implosion And Reverse Regression, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shu-Ping Shi

Research Collection School Of Economics

Expansion and collapse are two key features of a financial asset bubble. Bubble expansionmay be modeled using a mildly explosive process. Bubble implosion may take several differentforms depending on the nature of the collapse and therefore requires some flexibility in modeling.This paper first strengthens the theoretical foundation of the real time bubble monitoringstrategy proposed in Phillips, Shi and Yu (2015a,b, PSY) by developing analytics and studyingthe performance characteristics of the testing algorithm under alternative forms of bubbleimplosion which capture various return paths to market normalcy. Second, we propose a newreverse sample use of the PSY procedure for detecting crises and …

On Human Capital Development In Bangladesh, Sijia Xu

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation consists of three chapters on human capital development in Bangladesh. The first chapter provides microeconometric evidence that access to electricity has a positive impact on the nutritional status of children under five in rural Bangladesh.

Three Essays On Empirical Asset Pricing, Ming Zeng

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This thesis consists of three chapters. In Chapter1, I show that returns to currency carry and momentum strategies are compensations for the risk of US monetary policy uncertainty (MPU), with risk exposures explaining 96% of their cross-sectional return variations. The findings are consistent with an intermediary-based exchange rate model. Higher MPU triggers position unwinding by the intermediary, which decreases there turns of currency with high-interest rate or appreciation, while that with low-interest rate or depreciation earns positive returns. Different responses stem from the long and short behavior of the intermediary. The explanatory power of US MPU risk is robust and …

Income Inequality, Productivity, And International Trade, Wen-Tai Hsu, Lin Lu, Pierre Picard

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper discusses the effect of income inequality on selection and aggregate productivity in a general equilibrium model with non-homothetic preferences. It shows the existence of a negative relationship between the number and quantity of products consumed by an income group and the earnings of other income groups. It also highlights the negative effect of a mean-preserving spread of income on aggregate productivity through the softening of firms’ selection. This effect is however mitigated in the presence of international trade. In a quantitative analysis, it is shown that an excessively large mean-preserving spread of income may harm the rich as …

Do Hedge Funds Exploit Rare Disaster Concerns?, George P. Gao, Pengjie Gao, Zhaogang Song

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We find hedge funds that have higher return covariation with a disaster concern index, which we develop through out-of-the-money puts on various economic sector indices, earn significantly higher returns in the cross-section. We provide evidence that these funds’ managers are more skilled at exploiting the market’s ex ante rare disaster concerns (SEDs), which may not be associated with disaster risk. In particular, high-SED funds, on average, outperform low-SED funds by 0.96% per month, but have less exposure to disaster risk. They continue to deliver superior future performance when SEDs are estimated using the disaster concern index purged of disaster risk …

Real Estate Risk, Corporate Investment And Financing Choice, Xiaoying Deng, Seow Eng Ong, Meijun Qian

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper empirically examines how real estate risk impacts corporate investment and financing decisions. Using a panel of United States firms from 1985 to 2013, we document that real estate risk is negatively associated with firms’ long-term investments and long-term external financing in equity and debt. The results are robust to different risk measurements and in particular salient during the financial crisis period when the endogeneity between risk and investment is less of a concern. The effect on firm leverage, however, depends on risk measures. Overall, in contrast to previously documented positive effects of the real estate value, real estate …

New Distribution Theory For The Estimation Of Structural Break Point In Mean, Liang Jiang, Xiaohu Wang, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Based on the Girsanov theorem, this paper obtains the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of structural break point in a continuous time model. The exact distribution is asymmetric and tri-modal, indicating that the estimator is biased. These two properties are also found in the finite sample distribution of the least squares (LS) estimator of structural break point in the discrete time model, suggesting the classical long-span asymptotic theory is inadequate. The paper then builds a continuous time approximation to the discrete time model and develops an in-fill asymptotic theory for the LS estimator. The in-fill asymptotic distribution is …

Boundary Limit Theory For Functional Local To Unity Regression, Anna Bykhovskaya, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article studies functional local unit root models (FLURs) in which the autoregressive coefficient may vary with time in the vicinity of unity. We extend conventional local to unity (LUR) models by allowing the localizing coefficient to be a function which characterizes departures from unity that may occur within the sample in both stationary and explosive directions. Such models enhance the flexibility of the LUR framework by including break point, trending, and multidirectional departures from unit autoregressive coefficients. We study the behavior of this model as the localizing function diverges, thereby determining the impact on the time series and on …

Diagnostic Tests For Homoskedasticity In Spatial Cross-Sectional Or Panel Models, Badi H. Baltagi, Alain Pirotte, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose tests for homoskedasticity in spatial econometric models, based on joint or concentrated score functions and an Outer-Product-of-Martingale-Difference (OPMD) estimate of the variance of the joint or concentrated score functions. Versions of these tests robust against non-normality are also given. Asymptotic properties of the proposed tests are formally examined using a cross-section model and a panel model with fixed effects. Monte Carlo results show that the proposed tests based on the concentrated score function have good finite sample properties. Finally, the generality of the proposed approach in constructing tests for homoskedasticity is further demonstrated using a spatial dynamic panel …

Regional Prevalence Of Health Worker Absenteeism In Tanzania, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

Absenteeism of health workers in developing countries is common and can severely undermine the reliability of health system. Therefore, it is important to understand where the prevalence of absenteeism is high. We develop a simple imputation method that combines a Service Delivery Indicators survey and a Service Provision Assessment survey to estimate the prevalence of absenteeism of health workers at the level of regions in Tanzania. The resulting estimates allow one to identify the regions in which the prevalence of absenteeism is significantly higher or lower than the national average and help policymakers determine the priority areas for intervention.

Asymptotics And Bootstrap For Random-Effects Panel Data Transformation Models, Liangjun Su, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article investigates the asymptotic properties of quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimators for random-effects panel data transformation models where both the response and (some of) the covariates are subject to transformations for inducing normality, flexible functional form, homoskedasticity, and simple model structure. We develop a QML-type procedure for model estimation and inference. We prove the consistency and asymptotic normality of the QML estimators, and propose a simple bootstrap procedure that leads to a robust estimate of the variance-covariance (VC) matrix. Monte Carlo results reveal that the QML estimators perform well in finite samples, and that the gains by using the robust …

The Real Effects Of Exchange Traded Funds, Frank Weikai Li, Xuewen Liu, Chengzhu Sun

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper investigates the effects of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on the real efficiency of the underlying securities. We document strong evidence that being held by ETFs increases the sensitivity of a firm's investment to its own stock price. This is consistent with the model prediction on the managerial learning channel. Higher ownership by ETFs increases the firm's stock price informativeness about systematic shocks but may decrease the informativeness about firm-specific shocks; however, the firm manager cares most and wants to learn from the stock price mainly about systematic shocks in making investment decisions as he already has precise private information …

International Trade, Trade Policy, And The Wto, Wei Jin

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation comprises three papers that study the welfare impact of GATT/WTO, the effects of preference bias on trade flows and welfare, and the optimal trade policy with strategic interactions under a Ricardian model. The first chapter provides a comprehensive evaluation of the welfare impact of GATT/WTO in its entire history of 1950-2015 for 180 countries. The analysis embeds non-parametric matching methods in structural quantitative simulations. The results indicate substantial (but highly heterogeneous) welfare gains created by GATT/WTO at the global level and across more than six decades of its history. An extensive set of robustness checks with respect to …

Dispersion And Uncertainty In Density Forecasts: Evidence From Surveys Of Professional Forecasters, You Li

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation studies patterns of dispersion in density forecasts as reported in surveys of professional forecasters. We pay special attention to the role of uncertainty in explaining dispersion in professional forecasters’ density forecasts of real output growth and inflation. We also consider the relationship between survey design and forecaster behavior. The last chapter describes future research exploring the characteristics of forecaster expectations using probability integral transforms.

As a starting point, chapter one gives a summary of the literature that tries to answer, using data from survey of forecasters, the following three key questions: Why do forecasters disagree? What do density …

Three Essays On Panel Structure Models, Wuyi Wang

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

In panel structure models, individuals can be classified into different groups with the slope parameters being homogeneous within the same group but heterogeneous across groups, both the number of groups and each individual’s group membership are unknown. This dissertation proposes some methods to identify the panel structure models under different specifications, namely, developing a Lasso-type Panel-CARDS method in the linear panel, constructing two sequential binary segmentation algorithms in the nonlinear panel, and using K-means algorithm in the spatial panel.

Chapter 2 studies the estimation of a linear panel data model with latent structures. To identify the unknown group structure of …

Divergence, Convergence Or Crossvergence Of Chinese And Us Approaches To Regional Integration: Evolving Trajectories And Their Implications, Heng Wang

Research Collection Yong Pung How School Of Law

Trends in Chinese and U.S. approaches to regional integration are likely to profoundly affect other states and even the future of global economic governance. Showing a possible paradigm shift, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) renegotiation reflect the latest major developments in China and the U.S. regarding regional integration. In particular, the U.S. pursues managed trade, shifts to bilateralism, and adopts an aggressive approach. This article analyses a core question: will Chinese and U.S. trade approaches converge, diverge or both, and why? For the analysis of the convergence or divergence, four aspects will …

Policy Innovations For Affordable Housing In Singapore: From Colony To Global City, Sock Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Global cities today are facing fundamental challenges in relation to unaffordable housing and growing economic inequality. Singapore’s success in making home ownership possible for 90% of its population has attracted much attention internationally. This book represents a culmination of research by the author on key housing policy innovations for affordable housing. Housing policy changes were effected in the 1960s through reforms of colonial legislation and institutions dealing with state land acquisition, public housing, and provident fund savings. The comprehensive housing framework that was established enabled the massive resettlement of households from shophouses, slums and villages to high-rise government-built flats. In …

Occupational Shortage And Labor Market Adjustments: A Theory Of Islands, Joanne Tan, Riccardo Zago

Research Collection School Of Economics

Human Resources officers report occupational shortage to be the main cause of unfilled vacancies. Yet, it is not clear whether these are empty complaints or actually lead to effective wage and employment adjustments over time. By crossing data from the UK Employer Skill Survey with the UK Labor Force Survey, we show that shortage only leads to wage and employment adjustments for non-routine occupations in England, while no such adjustment occurs for routine occupations. This result is robust to several empirical specifications and varying levels of aggregation. Moreover, firms facing routine occupation shortage are more likely to outsource these vacancies, …

Optimal Stackelberg Strategies For Financing A Supply Chain Through Online Peer-To-Peer Lending, Guang-Xin Gao, Zhi-Ping Fan, Xin Fang, Yun Fong Lim

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In recent years, supply chain finance (SCF) through online peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms has gained its popularity. We study an SCF system with a manufacturer selling a product to a retailer that faces uncertain demand over a single period. We assume that either the retailer or the manufacturer faces a capital constraint and must borrow capital through an online P2P lending platform. The platform determines a service rate for the loan, the manufacturer sets a wholesale price for the product, and the retailer chooses its order quantity for the product. We identify optimal Stackelberg strategies of the participants in the …

The Heterogeneous Effects Of The Minimum Wage On Employment Across States, Wuyi Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies the relationship between the minimum wage and the employment rate in the US using the framework of a panel structure model. The approach allows the minimum wage, along with some other controls, to have heterogeneous effects on employment across states which are classified into a group structure. The effects on employment are the same within each group but differ across different groups. The number of groups and the group membership of each state are both unknown a priori. The approach employs the C-Lasso technique, a recently developed classification method that consistently estimates group structure and leads to …

Fair Division With Uncertain Needs, Jingyi Xue

Research Collection School Of Economics

Imagine agents having uncertain needs for a resource when the resource has to be divided before uncertainty resolves. In this situation, waste occurs when an agent's assignment turns out to exceed his realized need. How should the resource be divided in the face of possible waste? This is a question out of the scope of the existing rationing literature. Our main axiom to address the issue is no domination. It requires that no agent receive more of the resource than another while producing a larger expected waste, unless the other agent has been fully compensated. Together with conditional strict endowment …

Belt Road Initiative: A Chinese Future, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Despite concerns over debt and geopolitics, Asian countries should embrace a Sino-centric economic future

In a speech at the 52nd Munich Security Conference in 2016, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Fu Ying opened by saying:

“China has been asked frequently: are you challenging the US as leader of the world order? Or, are you making a parallel order? The answer is: of course not, we are part of the international order.”

Essays In Applied Microeconomics And Public Policy Evaluation, Yanying Chen

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation comprises four papers that evaluate the effectiveness of public policies in Singapore. The first paper studies the non-tangible effect of a new non-contributory pension in Singapore on subjective well-being. The second investigates the effect of the same pension on labour supply, work expectations, private cash transfers and expenditure. The third evaluates a pragmatic randomised controlled trial of a new transitional care programme in a large quaternary hospital, while the fourth examines the effect of a large-scale housing upgrading programme on the resale prices of upgraded flats.

Chapter 2 looks at the non-tangible effect of a new non-contributory pension …

Public-Private Partnerships: The Pro-Poor Gap Evaluation, Tung Nhu Nguyen

Asian Management Insights

Improving the future design and implementation of public-private partnerships.

Productivity Redesigned, Joergen Oerstroem Moeller

Asian Management Insights

Looking at productivity, not just of the plant, but of society as a whole.

Future For Children In Indonesia: On Walking Out Of Poverty, Jonathan Chang, Christopher Dula

Asian Management Insights

A social enterprise project that has brought income and dignity to a remote community in Indonesia.

Global Economic Outlook: An Interview With The Global Chief Economist Of The Economist Intelligence Unit, Simon Baptist, Simon Baptist, Alvin Lee

Asian Management Insights

Global Chief Economist of The Economist Intelligence Unit, Simon Baptist, discusses trends that are likely to shape the future global economic outlook, in this interview with Alvin Lee.

Essays In The Economics Of Health And Ageing, Yi Jin Tan

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation consists of four papers in applied microeconomics / the economics of health and ageing that analyse the causal effect of public policies, or of events / issues amenable to policy intervention. Chapter 1 provides an overview of the papers in this dissertation.

Chapter 2 investigates whether a major and growing environmental disamenity – dengue fever – leads to protective behavior that increases residential electricity consumption. Being near a dengue cluster leads to a persistent increase in electricity consumption in 4-room and 5-room/bigger flats (by 1.7% and 1.1% respectively). In addition, electricity consumption rises discontinuously when a dengue cluster’s …

Politics And The Price Of Rice In Thailand: Public Choice, Institutional Change And Rural Subsidies, Jacob Ricks

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

Despite the Thai state’s long record of rice market interventions, historically politicians failed to leverage rice subsidies in their pursuit of political support, notwithstanding the large number of farmers in the country. Since Thaksin Shinawatra’s election in 2001, though, each government has subsidised rice producers, although at varying degrees. What explains this change? This article traces the four-decade history of rice price support programmes. It is proposed that these policies be interpreted through the dual lens of institutionalism and public choice theory, demonstrating how political institutions have shaped incentives for politicians to cater to different constituencies. During the pre-1980 period, …

When Does Limited Commitment Matter In A Production Economy?, Kyoung Jin Choi, Jungho Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

We investigate the conditions under which the first-best allocation without commitment is sustainable in a production economy. While it is widely known in the literature that allowing capital accumulation creates a distortion, we find that it can help to sustain the first-best allocation. We also find that for a certain set of endowment economiesin which the efficient allocation is not sustainable, the efficient allocation becomes sustainable once we introduce a production technology with very small returns to scale orany returns to scale higher than that of the minimum value. In some cases, gains fromefficient resource allocation between agents can be …