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Full-Text Articles in Economics

New Tools For Understanding Spurious Regressions, Peter C. B. Phillips Nov 1998

New Tools For Understanding Spurious Regressions, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

Some new tools for analyzing spurious regressions are presented. The theory utilizes the general representation of a stochastic process in tenns of an orthononnal system and provides an extension of tile Weierstrass theorem to include the approximation of continuous functions and stochastic processes by Wiener processes. The theory is applied to two classic examples of spurious regressions: regression of stochastic trends on time polynomials, and regressions among independent random walks. It is shown that such regressions reproduce in part and in whole the underlying orthonormal representations.

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Evaluating Density Forecasts With Applications To Financial Risk Management, Francis X. Diebold, Todd A. Gunther, Anthony S. Tay Nov 1998

Evaluating Density Forecasts With Applications To Financial Risk Management, Francis X. Diebold, Todd A. Gunther, Anthony S. Tay

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose methods for evaluating density forecasts. We focus primarily on methods that are applicable regardless of the particular user’s loss function. We illustrate the methods with a detailed simulation example, and then we present an application to density forecasting of daily stock market returns. We discuss extensions for improving suboptimal density forecasts, multi-step-ahead density forecast evaluation, multivariate density forecast evaluation, monitoring for structural change and its relationship to density forecasting, and density forecast evaluation with known loss function.

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Productivity Growth And Public Sector Employment, Kong Weng Ho, Hian Teck Hoon Oct 1998

Productivity Growth And Public Sector Employment, Kong Weng Ho, Hian Teck Hoon

Research Collection School Of Economics

Our model endogenizes the share of public sector employment in a neoclassical growth model. Under the assumptions that public sector production is labor intensive and the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor is less than one, the public share of employment is shown to decline with a rise in capital per effective worker. Our theory predicts that periods of high productivity growth are associated with a rising trend of the public share of employment. This prediction conforms well with U.S. experience from 1950–1995.

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Productivity Growth And Public Sector Employment, Kong Weng Ho, Hian Teck Hoon Sep 1998

Productivity Growth And Public Sector Employment, Kong Weng Ho, Hian Teck Hoon

Research Collection School Of Economics

Our model endogenizes the share of public sector employment in a neoclassical growth model. Under the assumptions that public sector production is labor intensive and the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor is less than one, the public share of employment is shown to decline with a rise in capital per effective worker. Our theory predicts that periods of high productivity growth are associated with a rising trend of the public share of employment. This prediction conforms well with U.S. experience from 1950-1995.

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Information Systems And Economics, Robert J. Kauffman, Frederick J. Riggins Aug 1998

Information Systems And Economics, Robert J. Kauffman, Frederick J. Riggins

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Do big dollar expenditures on information systems pay off? Friction-free: is that what we really want markets to be? Is it time for consumers to say goodbye to fixed pricing? The Internet creates an environment in which the cost of buyer-seller interactions is cheaper than ever, and consumers can participate in the price-setting process—revealing their willingness to pay—making it the most efficient one-on-one selling environment anywhere, approaching the efficiency of the financial markets. In fact, such transformation is evident throughout the information economy. We see it in the approximately 1,000% annual network growth rates expected by some Internet service providers’ …

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Persistent Alterations Of The Autonomic Nervous System After Noncardiac Surgery, David Amar, Martin Fleisher, Carol B Pantuck, Harry Shamoon, Hao Zhang, Nancy Roistacher, Denis H. Y. Leung, Ilana Ginsburg, Richard M. Smiley Jul 1998

Persistent Alterations Of The Autonomic Nervous System After Noncardiac Surgery, David Amar, Martin Fleisher, Carol B Pantuck, Harry Shamoon, Hao Zhang, Nancy Roistacher, Denis H. Y. Leung, Ilana Ginsburg, Richard M. Smiley

Research Collection School Of Economics

IN some patients undergoing noncardiac surgery, important cardiovascular events such as myocardial ischemia or dysrhythmias occur, most commonly on postoperative days 1–5. These early perioperative events have been associated with poor outcome at 18–24 months. Sympathetic neural or hormonal mechanisms have been implicated as causative factors for these complications. In the study of possible effects of surgical stress on these mechanisms, the ability to assess autonomic outflow to target organs such as the heart would be important.

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From Entrepot To Nic: Economic And Structural Policy Aspects Of Singapore's Development, Jochen Wirtz, Thomas Menkhoff Jan 1998

From Entrepot To Nic: Economic And Structural Policy Aspects Of Singapore's Development, Jochen Wirtz, Thomas Menkhoff

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper describes the development of Singapore from an entrepot to an industrialized economy and analyzes the role of its structural and industrial policies as one important factor in this success story. The advance of Singapore to an industrialized economy can be structured into four phases. Phase I, the early phase from 1959 to the mid-1960s is characterized by an import substitution policy followed together with Malaysia. Phase II describes the enhanced export-orientation and industrialization from 1967 to 1973. Phase III includes the industrial restructuring from 1973 to 1984. Phase IV describes the development towards diversification of the industrial base …

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The Conditional Heteroscedasticity Of The Yen-Dollar Exchange Rates, Yiu Kuen Tse Jan 1998

The Conditional Heteroscedasticity Of The Yen-Dollar Exchange Rates, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper examines the conditional heteroscedasticity of the yen-dollar exchange rate. A model is constructed by extending the asymmetric power autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model to a process that is fractionally integrated. It is found that, unlike the equity markets, the appreciation and depreciation shocks of the yen against the dollar have similar effects on future volatilities. Although the results reject both the stable and the integrated models, our analysis of the response coefficients of the past shocks and the application of the models to the estimation of the capital requirements for trading the currencies show that there are no substantial …

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Curbing Urban Traffic Congestion In Singapore: A Comprehensive Review, Rex S. Toh, Sock-Yong Phang Dec 1997

Curbing Urban Traffic Congestion In Singapore: A Comprehensive Review, Rex S. Toh, Sock-Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

One of the most pervasive and frustrating of modern transportation problems is urban traffic congestion. Since 1975, Singapore has introduced a relentless series of traditional and experimental measures to slow down the growth of the motor vehicle population and to control its usage. While some of the measures have been somewhat successful, some of the problems were shifted or were substituted. The Area Licensing Scheme led to a shifting of the problem in time and place while the quota system has substituted uncertainty in quantity with uncertainty in price. Furthermore, the Preferential Additional Registration Fee system and the Quota System …

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Breaking Trends And The Money-Output Correlation, David Fernandez Nov 1997

Breaking Trends And The Money-Output Correlation, David Fernandez

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper examines the impact on the money-output correlation of a univariate specification that allows time series to be characterized as stationary around a broken trend function. Though pretesting suggests that U.S. real output (industrial production) can be described as broken-trend stationary, this result has only limited impact on the money-output correlation. Before 1985 there is a strong Granger causal relationship between money and broken-detrended output (hut not first-differenced output), even when different short-term interest rates are used as regressors. However, after 1985 this relationship weakens significantly, whether or not one determines that output has a unit root.

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From Manual To Electronic Road Congestion Pricing: The Singapore Experience And Experiment, Sock-Yong Phang, Rex S. Toh Jun 1997

From Manual To Electronic Road Congestion Pricing: The Singapore Experience And Experiment, Sock-Yong Phang, Rex S. Toh

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study reviews the efforts of Singapore to curb road congestion through restraints on motor vehicle ownership as well as user fees. In particular, it traces the history of the famous Area Licensing Scheme (ALS), and then discusses its shortcomings, also the need for Electronic Road Pricing (ERP), its advantages and disadvantages and the technology involved in this state of the art system. This paper identifies important research questions to be addressed in connection with the first full-scale adoption of ERP.

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Economic Development And The Distribution Of Land Rents In Singapore: A Georgist Implementation, Sock-Yong Phang Oct 1996

Economic Development And The Distribution Of Land Rents In Singapore: A Georgist Implementation, Sock-Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Independent Singapore, which has a tradition of free trade, has implemented large doses of Henry George's prescriptions. It has successfully captured land rents for redistribution through its land acquisition, public housing and other programs. These policies have been instrumental in the successful economic development of the island city state. Industrial estates on state-owned land were leased to foreign multinationals for export-oriented manufacturing which created the bulk of jobs in the sector. Commercial developments are built by the program. Affordable 99-year leasehold housing, built by the state, provided added economic incentives for employment, and helped keep inflation and wages down. Private …

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Singapore's Experience With Car Quotas: Issues And Policy Processes, Sock-Yong Phang, Wing-Keung Wong, Ngee-Choon Chia Oct 1996

Singapore's Experience With Car Quotas: Issues And Policy Processes, Sock-Yong Phang, Wing-Keung Wong, Ngee-Choon Chia

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper examines the policy processes behind Singapore's car quotas. The policy, when filtered through the market mechanism, had a number of unintended consequences. The public's unhappiness with certain features and [`]loopholes' of the system resulted in many changes to the rules. The effects of recent measures to curb speculation on quota premiums are evaluated. Problems with Singapore's Weekend Car Scheme are also discussed. The lesson for transport policy makers elsewhere is that in attempting to deal with the road congestion problem through car ownership policies, an asset market for vehicles should be taken into account.

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Pluralism, Multiculturalism And Group Rights, Chandran Kukathas Apr 1996

Pluralism, Multiculturalism And Group Rights, Chandran Kukathas

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

However prevalent may have been the longing for homogeneity, or at least social unity, in political thinking, the fundamental point which must be recognized is that cultural diversity or pluralism has been the most notable feature of society in the history of human set tlement. "Marginality and pluralism were and are the norm of civi lized existence."1 There are several reasons why this is the pattern revealed by history.2 The first has to do with the ubiquity of military conflict. Even among barbarians ethnic political unity was fragile because military conquests resulted in the mixing of peoples. But throughout history …

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Tourism Growth In Singapore: An Optimal Target, Habibullah Khan, Sock-Yong Phang, Rex S. Toh Jan 1996

Tourism Growth In Singapore: An Optimal Target, Habibullah Khan, Sock-Yong Phang, Rex S. Toh

Research Collection School Of Economics

No abstract provided.

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Temporary Equililibrium Dynamics With Learning: The Stability Of Random Walk Beliefs, Shurojit Chatterji Jan 1996

Temporary Equililibrium Dynamics With Learning: The Stability Of Random Walk Beliefs, Shurojit Chatterji

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper examines the stability of deterministic steady-states with a one dimensional state-variable and a smooth, recursive updating rule. It is shown that the only possibly stable steady states are those associated with random walk beliefs, provided there is motion on a center manifold, which is the case when a key parameter is non-zero; In the extant literature, there is no motion on the center manifold (the parameter is zero), a consequence of the specific assumption that the expected value of the state variable next period determines its current value. The stability properties are seen to be robust with respect …

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Spurious Regression In Forecast-Encompassing Tests, Peter C. B. Phillips Dec 1995

Spurious Regression In Forecast-Encompassing Tests, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

No abstract provided.

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Temporary Equilibrium Dynamics With Bayesian Learning, Shurojit Chatterji Dec 1995

Temporary Equilibrium Dynamics With Bayesian Learning, Shurojit Chatterji

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper examines the stability of deterministic steady states in a class of economies where the state variable is one dimensional and where agents use Bayesian techniques to form expectations. The dynamics with learning are locally convergent if the prior mean is close to a stable perfect-foresight root having modulus less than 1 and if the prior beliefs are held with enough confidence. The dynamics are, however, divergent if the prior mean or the variance of the prior distribution is sufficiently large

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The Multiplier Effect: Singapore's Hospitality Industry, Habibullah Khan, Sock-Yong Phang, Rex S. Toh Feb 1995

The Multiplier Effect: Singapore's Hospitality Industry, Habibullah Khan, Sock-Yong Phang, Rex S. Toh

Research Collection School Of Economics

Tourism's contribution to Singapore's economy has increased over time. Tourism contributed 11.9% to Singapore's GDP in 1992, about half of that from direct revenues. Indirect and induced sources contributed about equally to the other half. While the direct effect of tourist expenditures on the Singapore economy are predominant, the indirect and induced effects are also significant, indicating strong sectoral linkages within the local economy, especially with respect to the hospitality industry.

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Port Multipliers For Singapore: Impact On Income, Output, And Employment, Rex S. Toh, Sock-Yong Phang, Habibullah Khan Jan 1995

Port Multipliers For Singapore: Impact On Income, Output, And Employment, Rex S. Toh, Sock-Yong Phang, Habibullah Khan

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article examines the contribution of the activities of the Port of Singapore Authority (PSA), a government-owned statutory board which operates almost all of the port related activities in Singapore, to the prosperity of the entire country, by way of multiplier analysis. Input-output analysis is used to compute the income, output, and employment multipliers of port activities, broken down into direct, indirect, and induced effects. The policy implications on port investment and maritime policy follow.

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Rearrangement Of The Bcl-6 Gene As A Prognostic Marker In Diffuse Large-Cell Lymphoma, K. Offit, D.C. Louie, N. Z. Parsa, Denis H. Y. Leung, C. Portlock, B.H. Ye, F. Lista, D.A. Filippa, A. Rosenbaum, M. Ladanyi, S. Jhanwar, R. Dalla-Favera, R.S.K. Changanti Jul 1994

Rearrangement Of The Bcl-6 Gene As A Prognostic Marker In Diffuse Large-Cell Lymphoma, K. Offit, D.C. Louie, N. Z. Parsa, Denis H. Y. Leung, C. Portlock, B.H. Ye, F. Lista, D.A. Filippa, A. Rosenbaum, M. Ladanyi, S. Jhanwar, R. Dalla-Favera, R.S.K. Changanti

Research Collection School Of Economics

Current therapy can induce a long-term remission in half the patients with diffuse lymphomas with a large-cell component (DLLC), but more intensive treatment has the potential to improve outcome. Rearrangement of a novel candidate proto-oncogene, bcl-6, correlates with a favorable clinical outcome in DLLC and may thus serve as a prognostic marker.

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Fallibility And Sequential Decision-Making, Winston T. H. Koh Jun 1994

Fallibility And Sequential Decision-Making, Winston T. H. Koh

Research Collection School Of Economics

Individuals typically make errors in evaluating information. In this paper, we consider a project selection problem, where fallible managers screen projects sequentially, and provide independent opinions on its quality. We compare the relative performance of the hierarchy and polyarchy when η (n > 2) managers are employed to evaluate projects. In addition to generalizing the existing results on the optimal screening standards, I discuss and characterize the optimal organizational size, and how the relative desirability of the two sequential decision processes are affected by changing the project quality. Finally, I also discuss the effect of variable evaluation costs on the optimal …

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Policies To Promote Shipping Registration In Singapore, Sock Yong Phang, Rex S. Toh May 1994

Policies To Promote Shipping Registration In Singapore, Sock Yong Phang, Rex S. Toh

Research Collection School Of Economics

An analysis traces the development of ship registration in Singapore and examines the underlying motivation behind changes in policies over the last 3 decades. For the better part of the 1970s Singapore was classified as a flag of convenience (FOC) country as it pursued an FOC policy that emphasized the quantitative growth of its merchant fleet. Beginning in 1979 Singapore tightened maritime standards as well as ownership disclosure rules, requiring a foreign shipowner to incorporate a company in Singapore. It is regarded today as a quasi-FOC country - a term associated favorably with countries offering tax incentives to shipowners. The …

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Prediction, Filtering, And Smoothing In Nonlinear And Nonnormal Cases Using Monte-Carlo Integration, Hisashi Tanizaki, Roberto S. Mariano Apr 1994

Prediction, Filtering, And Smoothing In Nonlinear And Nonnormal Cases Using Monte-Carlo Integration, Hisashi Tanizaki, Roberto S. Mariano

Research Collection School Of Economics

A simulation-based non-linear filter is developed for prediction and smoothing in non-linear and/or nonnormal structural time-series models. Recursive algorithms of weighting functions are derived by applying Monte Carlo integration. Through Monte Carlo experiments, it is shown that (1) for a small number of random draws (or nodes) our simulation-based density estimator using Monte Carlo integration (SDE) performs better than Kitagawa's numerical integration procedure (KNI), and (2) SDE and KNI give less biased parameter estimates than the extended Kalman filter (EKF). Finally, an estimation of per capita final consumption data is taken as an application to the non-linear filtering problem.

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The Unctad Liner Code: A Dead Letter?, Sock-Yong Phang, Rex S. Toh Jan 1994

The Unctad Liner Code: A Dead Letter?, Sock-Yong Phang, Rex S. Toh

Research Collection School Of Economics

The UNCTAD Code of conduct for Liner Conferences entered into force in 1983. The Code's cargo allocation scheme or '40-40-20 rule' aims to provide shipping lines of developing countries with a fair change to compete for the carriage of their seabourne trade. However, the Code has not been effective in meeting its stated objectives for a variety of reasons. Amongst the administrative difficulties are (i) the complications introduced by the EEC's Brussels Package, (ii) the definition of national lines, (iii) the unit of measurement for cargo allocation purposes, and (iv) the monitoring of cargo movements. The tremendous growth in non-conference …

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International Trade And The Equilibrium Rate Of Unemployment In A Heckscher-Ohlin World Economy, Hian Teck Hoon Jan 1994

International Trade And The Equilibrium Rate Of Unemployment In A Heckscher-Ohlin World Economy, Hian Teck Hoon

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops a (stylized Asia-America) Heckscher-Ohlin world economy in which the equilibrium rate of unemployment is endogenous. We examine the impact of various economic shocks on unemployment in the global economy. Harrod-neutral or Hicks-neutral technical progress across all industries in Asia leads to a terms of trade improvement for America but raises America's unemployment rate. Introducing a third country such as the block of former socialist economies results in higher unemployment for both Asia and America. Protection in America lowers American equilibrium unemployment but raises Asia's unemployment.

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The Vehicle Quota System In Singapore: An Assessment, Winston T. H. Koh, David K. C. Lee Jan 1994

The Vehicle Quota System In Singapore: An Assessment, Winston T. H. Koh, David K. C. Lee

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper reviews the developments since the vehicle quota system was introduced in Singapore in May 1990. We discuss the bidding strategies for the certificates of entitlement (COE) under both the transferable and nontransferable auctions, as well as the equity of the present system and the desirability of transferable COEs. We argue that the COE auction should be made discriminatory and propose an alternative system of COE auction that we feel is both equitable and at the same time politically acceptable. We also survey developments in market competition in the car industry.

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Quasi-Flag Of Convenience Shipping: The Wave Of The Future, Rex S. Toh, Sock Yong Phang Dec 1993

Quasi-Flag Of Convenience Shipping: The Wave Of The Future, Rex S. Toh, Sock Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Many articles and books have been written to extol the advantages and virtues of flags of convenience (FOC) shipping, argue its necessi ty, and defend the practice. However, from the earliest days there has been opposition to FOC shipping, and lately the disenchantment over this questionable form of open registry has led to the potentially rapid growth of what can be termed as quasi-FOC arrangements. This article will first briefly trace the trend from FOCs to quasi-FOCs, outline the legal framework for regulating international shipping, then discuss the problems, opposition, and legal challenges to open registries. Finally, it will trace …

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Auctions For Transferable Objects: Theory And Evidence From The Vehicle Quota System In Singapore, David K. C. Lee, Winston T. H. Koh Oct 1993

Auctions For Transferable Objects: Theory And Evidence From The Vehicle Quota System In Singapore, David K. C. Lee, Winston T. H. Koh

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper studies the hypothesis that auctions with resale markets result in higher prices. The vehicle quota system introduced in Singapore in May 1990 provides the setting. The Certificates of Entitlement (COEs) necessary to purchase new cars were initially transferable for all quota categories. After October 1991, COEs for four major categories became non-transferable. Our results indicate that while the conversion to non-transferability eliminated speculation, it has also intensified competition among car distributors. Auctions for non-transferable COEs in fact led to higher COE prices in three of the four categories.

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A Model Of The Link Between The Fiscal System And Singapore's Central Provident Fund In General Equilibrium, Hian Teck Hoon, Kai Lin Teo Oct 1992

A Model Of The Link Between The Fiscal System And Singapore's Central Provident Fund In General Equilibrium, Hian Teck Hoon, Kai Lin Teo

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper demonstrates a channel through which the fiscal system interacts with the choice of CPF contribution rates to affect total savings, and hence, capital accumulation and the current account. It is shown that in the presence of a wage income tax, raising either the employee's or employer's contribution rates raises the total private earnings. On the other hand, in the presence of a capital income tax, raising the employee's or employer's contribution rates lowers total private savings. However, when we introduce a productive role for government spending, we show that an increase in CPF contribution rates under a balances …

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