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Articles 2371 - 2400 of 2456

Full-Text Articles in Economics

Housing Policy, Wealth Formation And The Singapore Economy, Sock-Yong Phang Jul 2001

Housing Policy, Wealth Formation And The Singapore Economy, Sock-Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper evaluates the contribution of housing policy in Singapore to financial sector development, housing wealth formation and macro-economic performance, both retrospectively and prospectively. It provides an overview of past housing policies and traces the linkages to the financial sector. Housing policy as effected through the Housing and Development Board and the Central Provident Fund (CPF) hampered the development of the commercial housing loans sector and domestic financial markets, but contributed to the overall growth and stability of the housing loans market and associated financial institutions. Housing policy and the trend of housing asset inflation contributed significantly to the formation …

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Gaussian Estimation Of Continuous Time Models Of The Short Term Interest Rate, Jun Yu, Peter C. B. Phillips Jul 2001

Gaussian Estimation Of Continuous Time Models Of The Short Term Interest Rate, Jun Yu, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper proposes a Gaussian estimator for nonlinear continuous time models of the short term interest rate. The approach is based on a stopping time argument that produces a normalizing transformation facilitating the use of a Gaussian likelihood. A Monte Carlo study shows that the finite sample performance of the proposed procedure offers an improvement over the discrete approximation method proposed by Nowman (1997). An empirical application to U.S. and British interest rates is given.

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Motor Vehicle Taxes As An Environmental Management Instrument: The Case Of Singapore, Ngee-Choon Chia, Sock Yong Phang Jun 2001

Motor Vehicle Taxes As An Environmental Management Instrument: The Case Of Singapore, Ngee-Choon Chia, Sock Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Being geographically small, land scarcity poses a potential constraint for economic growth in Singapore. Restraining car ownership and car use through motor vehicle taxes is part of the land-transport policy to ensure smoother traffic flow. This paper analyses the use of motor vehicle taxes in Singapore as an environmental management instrument. It evaluates the effectiveness of ownership and use taxes as instruments to internalise congestion and environment externality. Economic issues relating to the use of such taxes are also highlighted. It concludes that motor vehicle taxes offer Singapore a double dividend.

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Neyman's Smooth Test And Its Use In Econometrics, Anil K. Bera, Aurobindo Ghosh Jun 2001

Neyman's Smooth Test And Its Use In Econometrics, Anil K. Bera, Aurobindo Ghosh

Research Collection School Of Economics

The following essay is a reappraisal of the role of the smooth test proposed by Neyman (1937) in the context of current applications in econometrics. We revisit the derivation of the smooth test and put it into the perspective of the existing literature on tests based on probability integral transforms suggested by early pioneers such as R.A.Fisher (1930, 1932) and Karl Pearson (1933, 1934) and the other tests for goodness-of-fit. Our discussion touches data-driven and other methods of testing and inference on the order of the smooth test and the motivation and choice of orthogonal polynomials used by Neyman and …

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Validation Of Tissue Microarrays For Immunohistochemical Profiling Of Cancer Specimens Using The Example Of Human Fibroblastic Tumors, Axel Hoos, M. J. Urist, A. Stojadinovic, S. Mastorides, M. Dudas, Denis H. Y. Leung Apr 2001

Validation Of Tissue Microarrays For Immunohistochemical Profiling Of Cancer Specimens Using The Example Of Human Fibroblastic Tumors, Axel Hoos, M. J. Urist, A. Stojadinovic, S. Mastorides, M. Dudas, Denis H. Y. Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

Tissue microarrays allow high-throughput molecular profiling of cancer specimens by immunohistochemistry. Phenotype information of sections from arrayed biopsies on a multitissue block needs to be representative of full sections, as protein expression varies throughout the entire tumor specimen. To validate the use of tissue microarrays for immunophenotyping, we studied a group of 59 fibroblastic tumors with variable protein expression patterns by immunohistochemistry for Ki-67, p53, and the retinoblastoma protein (pRB). Data on full tissue sections were compared to the results of one, two, and three 0.6-mm core biopsies per tumor on a tissue array. Ki-67 and p53 staining was read …

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Mapping The Discipline Of The Olympic Games: An Author Cocitation Analysis, Peter Warning, Rosie Ching, Kristine Toohey Apr 2001

Mapping The Discipline Of The Olympic Games: An Author Cocitation Analysis, Peter Warning, Rosie Ching, Kristine Toohey

Research Collection School Of Economics

The authors conducted an author cocitation analysis on prominent authors writing about the Olympics during the 1990s. Author cocitation is an established bibliometric technique that can be used to measure the relative similarities of topics written about by the cited authors. This enables a visual representation of the “intellectual space” of the discipline, in this case the Olympics, to be created for the period under review. So core and peripheral research areas are identified, along with their major contributors. The representation appears as a two-dimensional cluster-enhanced map. Subject expertise was then applied to the results to place labels on the …

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Optimal Designs For Evaluating A Series Of Treatments, Denis H. Y. Leung, You Gan Wang Mar 2001

Optimal Designs For Evaluating A Series Of Treatments, Denis H. Y. Leung, You Gan Wang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Several articles in this journal have studied optimal designs for testing a series of treatments to identify promising ones for further study. These designs formulate testing as an ongoing process until a promising treatment is identified. This formulation is considered to be more realistic but substantially increases the computational complexity. In this article, we show that these new designs, which control the error rates for a series of treatments, can be reformulated as conventional designs that control the error rates for each individual treatment. This reformulation leads to a more meaningful interpretation of the error rates and hence easier specification …

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Forecasting Volatility: Evidence From The German Stock Market, Hagen H. W. Bluhm, Jun Yu Feb 2001

Forecasting Volatility: Evidence From The German Stock Market, Hagen H. W. Bluhm, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we compare two basic approaches to forecast volatility in the German stock market. The first approach uses various univariate time series techniques while the second approach makes use of volatility implied in option prices. The time series models include the historical mean model, the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) model, four ARCH-type models and a stochastic volatility (SV) model. Based on the utilization of volatility forecasts in option pricing and Value-at-Risk (VaR), various forecast horizons and forecast error measurements are used to assess the ability of volatility forecasts. We show that the mode lrankings are sensitive to …

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Information And Communication Technology And Poverty: An Asian Perspective, M. G. Quibria, Feichin, Ted Tschang Jan 2001

Information And Communication Technology And Poverty: An Asian Perspective, M. G. Quibria, Feichin, Ted Tschang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Many commentators have extolled the virtues of new information and communication technologies (ICTs) in reducing poverty and improving the quality of life. While such arguments have been used before in relation to many predecessor technologies, including other earlier communications technologies, the promise has often floundered. This paper attempts to provide a more balanced analysis of the question, by exploring the linkages between the new ICTs and poverty reduction. It examines the linkages in two ways: the potential for direct impacts of ICTs on various areas of poverty and development, and the indirect impacts of ICTs on economic growth, exports and …

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Statistical Methods For Clinical Studies In The Presence Of Surrogate End Points, Denis H. Y. Leung Jan 2001

Statistical Methods For Clinical Studies In The Presence Of Surrogate End Points, Denis H. Y. Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

The use of surrogate end points has become increasingly common in medical and biological research. This is primarily because, in many studies, the primary end point of interest is too expensive or too difficult to obtain. There is now a large volume of statistical methods for analysing studies with surrogate end point data. However, to our knowledge, there has not been a comprehensive review of these methods to date. This paper reviews some existing methods and summarizes the strengths and weaknesses of each method. It also discusses the assumptions that are made by each method and critiques how likely these …

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Do Stock Returns Follow A Finite Variance Distribution?, Q. M. Shao, H. Yu, Jun Yu Jan 2001

Do Stock Returns Follow A Finite Variance Distribution?, Q. M. Shao, H. Yu, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we propose a test statistic to discriminate between models with finite variance and models with infinite variance. The test statistic is the ratio of the sample standard deviation and the sample interquartile range. Both asymptotic and finite sample properties of the test statistic are discussed. We show that the test has good power properties against infinite-variance distributions and has small size distortions in finite samples. The statistic is applied to compare the competing models for S&P 500 index returns. Our test cannot reject most distributions with finite variance for both a pre-crash sample and a post-crash sample, …

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The Asian Economic Crisis: The Way Ahead For Singapore, Augustine H. H. Tan Jan 2001

The Asian Economic Crisis: The Way Ahead For Singapore, Augustine H. H. Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

No abstract provided.

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A Bayesian Decision Approach For Sample Size Determination In Phase Ii Trials, Denis H. Y. Leung, You-Gan Wang Jan 2001

A Bayesian Decision Approach For Sample Size Determination In Phase Ii Trials, Denis H. Y. Leung, You-Gan Wang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Stallard (1998, Biometrics54, 279–294) recently used Bayesian decision theory for sample-size determination in phase II trials. His design maximizes the expected financial gains in the development of a new treatment. However, it results in a very high probability (0.65) of recommending an ineffective treatment for phase III testing. On the other hand, the expected gain using his design is more than 10 times that of a design that tightly controls the false positive error (Thall and Simon, 1994, Biometrics50, 337–349). Stallard's design maximizes the expected gain per phase II trial, but it does not maximize the rate of gain or …

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An Empirical Investigation Into Long- And Short-Term Indebtedness, Hing-Man Leung Jan 2001

An Empirical Investigation Into Long- And Short-Term Indebtedness, Hing-Man Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

The external debt position of a country often lies at the heart of her financial crisis. While it is well-known that indebtedness and in particular a surge in short-term debts often precipitate a debt crisis that is often made worse by runs on a country’s foreign exchange, the reasons why a country takes a particular debt position is rarely formally explained. This paper investigates the long-term determinants of international indebtedness, the time-rates of change of indebtedness, and a nation’s short- to long term debt ratio. The data set used is the World Data CD-ROM. Six potential explanatory variables are: size, …

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A Monte Carlo Investigation Of Some Tests For Stochastic Dominance, Yiu Kuen Tse, Xibin Zhang Dec 2000

A Monte Carlo Investigation Of Some Tests For Stochastic Dominance, Yiu Kuen Tse, Xibin Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper compares the performance of several tests for stochastic dominance up to order three using Monte Carlo methods. The tests considered are the Davidson and Duclos (2000) test, the Anderson test (1996) and the Kaur, Rao and Singh (1994) test. We find that the Davidson-Duclos test appears to be the best. The Kaur-Rao-Singh test is overly conservative and does not compare favorably against the Davidson-Duclos and Anderson tests in terms of power.

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How Accurate Are Confidence Intervals For Impulse Responses In Large Var Models?, Lutz Kilian, Pao-Li Chang Dec 2000

How Accurate Are Confidence Intervals For Impulse Responses In Large Var Models?, Lutz Kilian, Pao-Li Chang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study the finite-sample accuracy and average length of pointwise confidence intervals for impulse responses in vector autoregressive models with many variables and many lags. Our results complement existing simulation evidence based on much simpler bivariate models.

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Bugs For A Bayesian Analysis Of Stochastic Volatility Models, Renate Meyer, Jun Yu Dec 2000

Bugs For A Bayesian Analysis Of Stochastic Volatility Models, Renate Meyer, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper reviews the general Bayesian approach to parameter estimation in stochastic volatility models with posterior computations performed by Gibbs sampling. The main purpose is to illustrate the ease with which the Bayesian stochastic volatility model can now be studied routinely via BUGS (Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling), a recently developed, user-friendly, and freely available software package. It is an ideal software tool for the exploratory phase of model building as any modifications of a model including changes of priors and sampling error distributions are readily realized with only minor changes of the code. However, due to the single move …

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Prognostic Impact Of P53 Status In Ewing Sarcoma, E. De Alava, C. Antonescu, A. Panizo, Denis H. Y. Leung, P. Meyers, A. Huvos, F. J. Pardo-Mindan, J. Healey, M. Ladanyi Aug 2000

Prognostic Impact Of P53 Status In Ewing Sarcoma, E. De Alava, C. Antonescu, A. Panizo, Denis H. Y. Leung, P. Meyers, A. Huvos, F. J. Pardo-Mindan, J. Healey, M. Ladanyi

Research Collection School Of Economics

Disease stage at the time of diagnosis and response to therapy are the main prognostic factors for patients with Ewing sarcoma or peripheral neuroectodermal tumor (ES/PNET). The primary genetic alteration in ES/PNET, the fusion of the EWS gene with FLI1 or ERG, is diagnostically highly specific for these tumors, and molecular variation in the structure of the EWS-FLI1 fusion gene also is of prognostic significance. In contrast, secondary genetic alterations, such as P53 alterations, are relatively uncommon in ES/PNET, and their prognostic impact has not been extensively studied. METHODS: Prechemotherapy, paraffin embedded, nondecalcified, primary tumor material in a well-characterized series …

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Density Forecasting: A Survey, Anthony S. Tay, Kenneth F. Wallis Jul 2000

Density Forecasting: A Survey, Anthony S. Tay, Kenneth F. Wallis

Research Collection School Of Economics

A density forecast of the realization of a random variable at some future time is an estimate of the probability distribution of the possible future values of that variable. A selective survey is presented of applications of density forecasting in macroeconomics and finance, and some issues concerning the production, presentation, and evaluation of density forecasts are discussed.

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A New Statistic For Regression Transformation, Zhenlin Yang Jun 2000

A New Statistic For Regression Transformation, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

A new statistic for testing a regression transformation is proposed based on a result of Yang (1999). This statistic is shown to be stable, having a null distribution almost independent of model type and parameter values, accurate and easy to implement. The statistic is of the Wald-type and thus is compared with the Wald statistic given by Lawrence (1987) in terms of size, null distribution and power using simulation. The simulation results show that the new statistic generally outperforms that of Lawrence.

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Assessing Export Platforms: The Case Of Singapore, Kong Weng Ho, Hian Teck Hoon Apr 2000

Assessing Export Platforms: The Case Of Singapore, Kong Weng Ho, Hian Teck Hoon

Research Collection School Of Economics

The aim of this paper is to try to understand how Singapore was generally successful in its export promoting strategy. Historically, Singapore experimented with an import-substituting strategy in the first half of the sixties in anticipation of forming a common market with Malaysia and also briefly after its independence in 1965. The level of protection, however, was relatively low during its import-substituting phase.

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On The Proper Use Of Box-Cox Transformation Method: A Note On A Taguchi Case Study, Zhenlin Yang Jan 2000

On The Proper Use Of Box-Cox Transformation Method: A Note On A Taguchi Case Study, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

In studying the role of transformation in the Taguchi method, Logothetis (1990) analyzed the data from a plasma etching process and concluded that the Box-Cox method can induce a mean bias in the variability performance measure which can inhibit the production of clearcut results. This paper points out that the above conclusion is in part due to an inappmpriate application of the Box-Cox method where the transformation parameter is determined from one model but the analysis is done on the other. Further, it may not be appropriate to state that Box-Cox method induces a mean bias, but rather that there …

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Hong Kong And Singapore, Sock Yong Phang Jan 2000

Hong Kong And Singapore, Sock Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

There are many similarities between Hong Kong and Singapore. They have both enjoyed high rates of economic growth over the past three decades, averaging six percent a year in real terms. The two have become known as “East Asian Tigers,” having made the transition from poverty to newly industrialized economies in a relatively short time. Both started off as British colonies, with British legal and administrative systems, and made their living as trading ports serving their respective regions. Singapore has been an independent republic since 1965; Hong Kong was returned to China on July 1, 1997. While Hong Kong and …

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Dynamic Regressions With Variables Observed At Different Frequencies, Tilak Abeysinghe, Anthony S. Tay Jan 2000

Dynamic Regressions With Variables Observed At Different Frequencies, Tilak Abeysinghe, Anthony S. Tay

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider the problem of formulating and estimating dynamic regression models with variables observed at different frequencies. The strategy adopted is to define the dynamics of the model in terms of the highest available frequency, and to apply certain lag polynomials to transform the dynamics so that the model is expressed solely in terms of observed variables. A general solution is provided for models with monthly and quarterly observations. We also show how the methods can be extended to models with quarterly and annual observations, and models combining monthly and annual observations.

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Two Hundred Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors: Recurrence Patterns And Prognostic Factors For Survival, Ronald P. Dematteo, Jonathan J. Lewis, Denis H. Y. Leung, Salvinder S. Mudan, James M. Woodruff, Murray F. Brennan Jan 2000

Two Hundred Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors: Recurrence Patterns And Prognostic Factors For Survival, Ronald P. Dematteo, Jonathan J. Lewis, Denis H. Y. Leung, Salvinder S. Mudan, James M. Woodruff, Murray F. Brennan

Research Collection School Of Economics

Objective: To analyze the outcome of 200 patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) who were treated at a single institution and followed up prospectively. Summary Background Data: A GIST is a visceral sarcoma that arises from the gastrointestinal tract. Surgical resection is the mainstay of treatment because adjuvant therapy is unproven. Methods: Two hundred patients with malignant GIST were admitted and treated at Memorial Hospital during the past 16 years. Patient, tumor, and treatment variables were analyzed to identify patterns of tumor recurrence and factors that predict survival. Results: Of the 200 patients, 46% had primary disease without metastasis, 47% …

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The Long Term Effects Of Angiotensin Converting Enzyme Inhibition And Metabolic Control On Cardiovascular And Renal Outcomes In Hypertensive Type 2 Diabetic Patients, Julien C. N. Chan, Gary T. C. Ko, Denis H. Y. Leung Jan 2000

The Long Term Effects Of Angiotensin Converting Enzyme Inhibition And Metabolic Control On Cardiovascular And Renal Outcomes In Hypertensive Type 2 Diabetic Patients, Julien C. N. Chan, Gary T. C. Ko, Denis H. Y. Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

Long-term effects of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibition and metabolic control in hypertensive type 2 diabetic patients. Background. In hypertensive type 2 diabetic patients, treatment with angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors is associated with a lower incidence of cardiovascular events than those treated with calcium channel-blocking agents. However, the long-term renal effects of ACE inhibitors in these patients remain inconclusive. In 1989, we commenced a placebo-controlled, double-blind, randomized study to examine the anti-albuminuric effects of enalapril versus nifedipine (slow release) in 102 hypertensive, type 2 diabetic patients. These patients have been followed up for a mean trial duration of 5.5 ± 2.2 years. …

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An Empirical Analysis Of Unit Trust Performance In Singapore, Joseph H. H. Chia, Yiu Kuen Tse Jan 2000

An Empirical Analysis Of Unit Trust Performance In Singapore, Joseph H. H. Chia, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Singapore government’s recent strategic plan to develop the financial sector has placed much emphasis on the fund management industry. In this paper we examine the unit trust performance in Singapore in the 90s. Our results show that fund managers in general performed poorly in security analysis and market timing. However, they performed fairly well in risk-adjusted returns and generally maintained well-diversified portfolios. We find that there is little consistency in the performance ranking of the evaluated portfolios, although there is evidence of repeat performance of some top funds. Our analysis also shows that fund managers could indeed make excess …

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Multivariate Density Forecast Evaluation And Calibration In Financial Risk Management: High-Frequency Returns On Foreign Exchange, Francis X. Diebold, Jinyong Hahn, Anthony S. Tay Nov 1999

Multivariate Density Forecast Evaluation And Calibration In Financial Risk Management: High-Frequency Returns On Foreign Exchange, Francis X. Diebold, Jinyong Hahn, Anthony S. Tay

Research Collection School Of Economics

We provide a framework for evaluating and improving multivariate density forecasts. Among other things, the multivariate framework lets us evaluate the adequacy of density forecasts involving cross-variable interactions, such as time-varying conditional correlations. We also provide conditions under which a technique of density forecast calibration can be used to improve deficient density forecasts, and we show how the calibration method can be used to generate good density forecasts from econometric models, even when the conditional density is unknown. Finally, motivated by recent advances in financial risk management, we provide a detailed application to multivariate high-frequency exchange rate density forecasts. © …

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Estimating A Transformation And Its Effect On Box-Cox T-Ratio, Zhenlin Yang Jun 1999

Estimating A Transformation And Its Effect On Box-Cox T-Ratio, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article concerns i) the stochastic behavior of the Box-Cox transformation estimator and ii) the effect of estimating a transformation on the Box-CoxT-ratio used for the post-transformation analysis. It is shown that the transformation estimator depends on three factors: the model structure, the mean-spread and the error standard deviation σ0. In general, a structured model is able to estimate the transformation very well; an unstructured model can do well also unless the mean-spread and σ0 are both small; and a one-mean mode can give a poor-estimate if σ0 is small. When the sample is not large, it is shown that …

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Evaluating Density Forecasts Of Inflation: The Survey Of Professional Forecasters, Francis X. Diebold, Anthony S. Tay, Kenneth F. Wallis Jan 1999

Evaluating Density Forecasts Of Inflation: The Survey Of Professional Forecasters, Francis X. Diebold, Anthony S. Tay, Kenneth F. Wallis

Research Collection School Of Economics

Since 1968, the Survey of Professional Forecasters has asked respondents to provide a complete probability distribution of expected future inflation. We evaluate the adequacy of those density forecasts using the framework of Diebold, Gunther and Tay (1997). The analysis reveals several interesting features of the density forecasts in relation to realized inflation including several deficiencies of the forecasts. The probability of a large negative inflation shock is generally overestimated, and in more recent years the probability of a large shock of either sign is overestimated. Inflation surprises are serially correlated eventually adapt. Expectations of low inflation are associated with reduced …

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