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Articles 1261 - 1290 of 2456

Full-Text Articles in Economics

Remittances Without Borders, Tan Swee Liang, S. N. Venkataramanan, Anil Kishora Nov 2015

Remittances Without Borders, Tan Swee Liang, S. N. Venkataramanan, Anil Kishora

Research Collection School Of Economics

A Pan-Asian Mobile Remittance Platform might just be the next big disruption in global remittances. One out of every 28 people lives in a country that they were not born in. As migrants, they are estimated by The World Bank to send home US$636 billion in 2017, with three-quarters remitted to developing countries. These remittances form a significant percentage of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of many of these developing countries. Given their magnitude and contribution to national economies, even a small reduction in remittance cost adds billions to these local economies. Mobile-to-mobile cross border remittances have recently shown that …

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Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects And Multiple Structural Breaks, Degui Li, Junhui Qian, Liangjun Su Nov 2015

Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects And Multiple Structural Breaks, Degui Li, Junhui Qian, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we consider estimation of common structural breaks in panel data models with unobservable interactive fixed effects. We introduce a penalized principal component (PPC) estimation procedure with an adaptive group fused LASSO to detect the multiple structural breaks in the models. Under some mild conditions, we show that with probability approaching one the proposed method can correctly determine the unknown number of breaks and consistently estimate the common break dates. Furthermore, we estimate the regression coefficients through the post-LASSO method and establish the asymptotic distribution theory for the resulting estimators. The developed methodology and theory are applicable to …

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Cointegration Of Matched Home Purchases And Rental Price Indexes: Evidence From Singapore, Badi H. Baltagi, Jing Li Nov 2015

Cointegration Of Matched Home Purchases And Rental Price Indexes: Evidence From Singapore, Badi H. Baltagi, Jing Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper exploits the homogeneity feature of the Singapore private residential condominium market and constructs matched home purchase price and rental price series using the repeated sales method. These matched series allow us to conduct time series analysis to examine the long-term present value relationship in the housing market. Three key findings are obtained. First, we fail to establish a cointegrating relationship between the home purchase price and rental price based on nationally estimated indexes. Second, area-specific indexes demonstrate strong cross-correlations, invalidating the use of first generation panel unit root tests that ignore these cross-correlations. Third, Pesaran's CIPS test indicates …

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Supplement To Two Papers On Multiple Bubbles [Online Supplementary Materials], Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu Nov 2015

Supplement To Two Papers On Multiple Bubbles [Online Supplementary Materials], Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper provides a supplement to two companion papers by the authors: “Testing for Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes of Exuberance and Collapse in the S&P 500” (PSY1 hereafter); and “Testing for Multiple Bubbles: Limit Theory of Real Time Detectors” (PSY2 hereafter). Section 1 supplements the empirical application of PSY1 by examining the robustness of the bubble identification and dating results to the choice of the minimum window size parameter used in the rolling regression framework of PSY. Section 2 provides proofs of supplementary lemmas that facilitate analysis of the multiple bubble case, derives the limit behaviour of the recursive unit …

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Peru: Open For Business, Singapore Management University Oct 2015

Peru: Open For Business, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

South America’s third-largest economy seeks to capitalise on growing global trade

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Europe: Ready To Rebound, Singapore Management University Oct 2015

Europe: Ready To Rebound, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Increasing trade, investment, and immigrant integration are keys to Europe’s economic vitality

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Sense And Sensibility Of Ownership: Type Of Ownership Experience And Valuation Of Goods, Xiao-Tian Wang, Lay See Ong, Jolene Tan Oct 2015

Sense And Sensibility Of Ownership: Type Of Ownership Experience And Valuation Of Goods, Xiao-Tian Wang, Lay See Ong, Jolene Tan

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

This study examined how the type of ownership experience affects the valuation of a good. We hypothesized that the sense of ownership is a psychological derivative of resource acquisition and allocation. We predicted a valuation order of stable ownership or no-ownership

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Bias-Correction For Weibull Common Shape Estimation, Yan Shen, Zhenlin Yang Oct 2015

Bias-Correction For Weibull Common Shape Estimation, Yan Shen, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

A general method for correcting the bias of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the common shape parameter of Weibull populations, allowing a general right censorship, is proposed in this paper. Extensive simulation results show that the new method is very effective in correcting the bias of the MLE, regardless of censoring mechanism, sample size, censoring proportion and number of populations involved. The method can be extended to more complicated Weibull models.

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Monetizing Housing For Retirement In Singapore, Sock Yong Phang Oct 2015

Monetizing Housing For Retirement In Singapore, Sock Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

In 2015, the value of housing assets owned by households in Singapore at the aggregate level was 55% of their net worth.1 Ninety percent of Singapore households owned their homes, meaning that almost all households had wealth saved in housing, and households’ housing wealth was 2.1 times that of the country’s gross domestic product. In addition, Singapore is facing an aging population. The resident old age support ratio, defined as the number of persons aged 20–64 per person aged 65 years and over, decreased from 9.0 in 2000 to 5.7 in 2015.2 Against this backdrop of asset-rich and aging households, …

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Model Selection In The Presence Of Incidental Parameters, Yeonseok Lee, Peter C. B. Phillips Oct 2015

Model Selection In The Presence Of Incidental Parameters, Yeonseok Lee, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper considers model selection in panels where incidental parameters are present. Primary interest centers on selecting a model that best approximates the underlying structure involving parameters that are common within the panel. It is well known that conventional model selection procedures are often inconsistent in panel models and this can be so even without nuisance parameters. Modifications are then needed to achieve consistency. New model selection information criteria are developed here that use either the Kullback-Leibler information criterion based on the profile likelihood or the Bayes factor based on the integrated likelihood with a bias-reducing prior. These model selection …

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Poverty Decomposition By Regression: An Application To Tanzania, Tomoki Fujii Oct 2015

Poverty Decomposition By Regression: An Application To Tanzania, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

We develop a poverty decomposition method that is based on a consumption regression model. Because this method uses an integral of the partial derivatives of a poverty measure with respect to time, the resulting poverty decomposition satisfies time-reversion consistency and sub-period additivity. Unlike the existing poverty decomposition methods, it allows us to ascribe the observed change in poverty to various covariates of interest collected at a disaggregate level. This method is applied to two datasets from Tanzania to assess, among others, the short- and long-term impacts of infrastructure and market access on poverty.

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Technology And Contractions: Evidence From Manufacturing, Roberto M. Samaniego, Yu Sun Oct 2015

Technology And Contractions: Evidence From Manufacturing, Roberto M. Samaniego, Yu Sun

Research Collection School Of Economics

Theory suggests a range of technological characteristics that might interact with the business cycle depending on what kind of shocks or propagation mechanisms are quantitatively important. We use variation in industry growth within manufacturing to determine which technological characteristics interact significantly with the business cycle. We find that growth in labor intensive industries is especially sensitive to contractions. We show this cross-industry asymmetry occurs specifically in contractions, not in recoveries nor over the cycle in general.

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Measure Of Location-Based Estimators In Simple Linear Regression, Xijia Liu, Daniel P. A. Preve Sep 2015

Measure Of Location-Based Estimators In Simple Linear Regression, Xijia Liu, Daniel P. A. Preve

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we consider certain measure of location-based estimators (MLBEs) for the slope parameter in a linear regression model with a single stochastic regressor. The median-unbiased MLBEs are interesting as they can be robust to heavy-tailed samples and, hence, preferable to the ordinary least squares estimator (LSE). Two different cases are considered as we investigate the statistical properties of the MLBEs. In the first case, the regressor and error are assumed to follow a symmetric stable distribution. In the second, other types of regressions, with potentially contaminated errors, are considered. For both cases the consistency and exact finite-sample distributions …

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Of Land, Food, And Scale, Singapore Management University Sep 2015

Of Land, Food, And Scale, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

The competing needs for infrastructure, agriculture, and scale could decide the success of The Asian century

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Agreeing To Agree And Dutch Books, Yi-Chun Chen, Ehud Lehrer, Jiangtao Li, Dov Samet, Eran Shmaya Sep 2015

Agreeing To Agree And Dutch Books, Yi-Chun Chen, Ehud Lehrer, Jiangtao Li, Dov Samet, Eran Shmaya

Research Collection School Of Economics

We say that agreeing to agree is possible for an event E if there exist posterior beliefs of the agents with a common prior such that it is common knowledge that the agents' posteriors for E coincide. We propose a notion called Dutch book which is a profile of interim contracts between an outsider and the agents based on the occurrence of E, such that the outsider makes positive profit in all states. We show that in a finite state space, when the agents cannot tell whether Eoccurred or not, agreeing to agree is possible for E if and only …

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Semiparametric Estimation Of Partially Linear Dynamic Panel Data Models With Fixed Effects, Liangjun Su, Yonghui Zhang Sep 2015

Semiparametric Estimation Of Partially Linear Dynamic Panel Data Models With Fixed Effects, Liangjun Su, Yonghui Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we study a partially linear dynamic panel data model with fixed effects, where either exogenous or endogenous variables or both enter the linear part, and the lagged dependent variable together with some other exogenous variables enter the nonparametric part. Two types of estimation methods are proposed for the first-differenced model. One is composed of a semiparametric GMM estimator for the finite dimensional parameter and a local polynomial estimator for the infinite dimensional parameter m based on the empirical solutions to Fredholm integral equations of the second kind, and the other is a sieve IV estimate of the …

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Bias In The Estimation Of Mean Reversion In Continuous-Time Levy Processes, Yong Bao, Aman Ullah, Yun Wang, Jun Yu Sep 2015

Bias In The Estimation Of Mean Reversion In Continuous-Time Levy Processes, Yong Bao, Aman Ullah, Yun Wang, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops the approximate bias of the ordinary least squares estimator of the mean reversion parameter in continuous-time Levy processes. Several cases are considered, depending on whether the long-run mean is known or unknown and whether the initial condition is fixed or random. The approximate bias is used to construct a bias corrected estimator. The performance of the approximate bias and the bias corrected estimator is examined using simulated data.

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Wealth Inequality And Financial Development: Revisiting The Symmetry Breaking Mechanism, Haiping Zhang Sep 2015

Wealth Inequality And Financial Development: Revisiting The Symmetry Breaking Mechanism, Haiping Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

No abstract provided.

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Expropriation Risk And Competition Within The Military, Madhav S. Aney, Giovanni Ko Sep 2015

Expropriation Risk And Competition Within The Military, Madhav S. Aney, Giovanni Ko

Research Collection School Of Economics

How can agents in the military, who control the means of coercion, commit not to expropriate from producers? In this paper we propose competition within the military as one of the mechanisms that can deter predation and consequently create commitment. In our model, even if agents within the military could expropriate all output costlessly, it is attractive to protect producers from predating military units. This marginal defensive advantage and consequently defence is an effective way to potentially eliminate is because there is a other military units, reducing competition and leading to higher future payoffs. Our model predicts that greater internal …

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Jackknife Model Averaging For Quantile Regressions, Xun Lu, Liangjun Su Sep 2015

Jackknife Model Averaging For Quantile Regressions, Xun Lu, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we consider model averaging for quantile regressions (QR) when all models under investigation are potentially misspecified and the number of parameters is diverging with the sample size. To allow for the dependence between the error terms and regressors in the QR models, we propose a jackknife model averaging (JMA) estimator which selects the weights by minimizing a leave-one-out cross-validation criterion function and demonstrate its asymptotic optimality in terms of minimizing the out-of-sample final prediction error. We conduct simulations to demonstrate the finite-sample performance of our estimator and compare it with other model selection and averaging methods. We …

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Impact Of International Remittances On Schooling In The Philippines: Does The Relationship To The Household Head Matter?, Tomoki Fujii Sep 2015

Impact Of International Remittances On Schooling In The Philippines: Does The Relationship To The Household Head Matter?, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study the impact of international remittances on schooling in the Philippines, taking into account the school-age individual's relationship to the household head. This consideration is important because employment opportunities abroad may be taken at the expense of the quality of child rearing. Our estimation results indicate that there are, indeed, significant negative guardian effects on school attendance and education expenditures when children with overseas parents are looked after by a relative other than a parent or grandparent. However, these negative effects tend to be outweighed by the positive impact of remittance flows from overseas.

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World Energy Intensity Revisited: A Cluster Analysis, Yihua Yu, Yonghui Zhang, Feng Song Sep 2015

World Energy Intensity Revisited: A Cluster Analysis, Yihua Yu, Yonghui Zhang, Feng Song

Research Collection School Of Economics

The aim of this article is to empirically identify convergence clubs in energy intensity among 109 countries from 1971 to 2010 by using a recently developed methodology, i.e., a new regression-based convergence test, introduced by Phillips and Sul (2007). This log t test allows us to endogenously identify the groups of countries that converge to different equilibriums and those that do not converge to any convergence clubs. We mainly find that, first, world countries do not seem to converge at the same steady-state level; instead, they form four separate clubs converging to their own steady-state paths and few countries are …

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Singapore’S Housing Policies: Responding To The Challenges Of Economic Transitions, Sock Yong Phang Aug 2015

Singapore’S Housing Policies: Responding To The Challenges Of Economic Transitions, Sock Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Singapore has developed its own unique state-driven housing system, with more than three quarters of its housing stock built by the Housing and Development Board and homeownership financed through Central Provident Fund savings. As a result, it has one of the highest homeownership rates amongst market economies. This paper provides a historical perspective of the main housing problems faced by successive prime ministers and their respective policy responses. Under the leadership of Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew (1959-1990), the government established an integrated landhousing supply and housing finance framework to channel much needed resources into the housing sector to deal …

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The Role Of The State In Singapore: Pragmatism In Pursuit Of Growth, Kim Song Tan, Manu Bhaskaran Aug 2015

The Role Of The State In Singapore: Pragmatism In Pursuit Of Growth, Kim Song Tan, Manu Bhaskaran

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper looks at how government intervention shapes the evolution of the Singapore economy and accounts for its successes and failures over the past 50 years. Compared with other dynamic Asian economies, the Singapore government's approach to intervene in the economy is both more extensive and more intrusive, but with a narrow focus on GDP growth and surplus accumulation as the primary objectives. The ruling government's near complete dominance in politics has enabled it to mobilize resources to create the preconditions for strong GDP growth and high savings. But the impact on the broader development of the economy and the …

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Signaling In Online Credit Markets, Kei Kawai, Ken Onishi, Kosuke Uetake Aug 2015

Signaling In Online Credit Markets, Kei Kawai, Ken Onishi, Kosuke Uetake

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study how signaling affects equilibrium outcomes and welfare in markets with adverse selection. Using data from an online credit market, we estimate a model of borrowers and lenders where low reserve interest rates can signal low default risk. Comparing a market with and without signaling relative to the benchmark case with no asymmetric information, we find that adverse selection destroys as much as 16% of total surplus, up to 95% of which can be restored with signaling. We also find the credit supply curves to be backward-bending for some markets, consistent with the prediction of Stiglitz and Weiss (1981).

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Is There A Future For The Euro?, Augustine H. H. Tan Jul 2015

Is There A Future For The Euro?, Augustine H. H. Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

A Greek exit could spell the euro zone's disintegration. The Greek referendum last Sunday resoundingly backed its embattled government over its tortuous negotiations with the Troika of the European Central Bank (ECB), the European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Greece is now back at the negotiating table, which may ease the terms of loan repayment and lighten the reforms demanded or it may lead to a Grexit.

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Greece Caught In Death Spiral, Augustine H. H. Tan Jul 2015

Greece Caught In Death Spiral, Augustine H. H. Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

The country is trapped between twin evils akin to the sea monsters Scylla and Charybdis that threatened Odysseus' voyage.

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Greece Caught In Death Spiral, Augustine H. H. Tan Jul 2015

Greece Caught In Death Spiral, Augustine H. H. Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

The country is trapped between twin evils akin to the sea monsters Scylla and Charybdis that threatened Odysseus' voyage.

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Role For Singapore In Mobile Phone Remittances, Tan Swee Liang, Singanallore Narayanan Venkataramanan, Anil Kishora Jul 2015

Role For Singapore In Mobile Phone Remittances, Tan Swee Liang, Singanallore Narayanan Venkataramanan, Anil Kishora

Research Collection School Of Economics

As sending money home this way takes off, the country can provide a Pan-Asian platform

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Predictability Of Exchange Rates With Taylor Rule Fundamentals: Evidence From Inflation-Targeting Emerging Countries, Joseph D. Alba, Donghyun Park, Taojun Xie Jul 2015

Predictability Of Exchange Rates With Taylor Rule Fundamentals: Evidence From Inflation-Targeting Emerging Countries, Joseph D. Alba, Donghyun Park, Taojun Xie

Research Collection School Of Economics

We investigate the out-of-sample predictability of U.S. dollar exchange rates with Taylor rule fundamentals in thirteen emerging countries with inflation-targeting monetary policy regimes. We find some evidence of out-of-sample exchange rate predictability for Brazil, Czech Republic, Hungary, Philippines, Thailand, and South Africa. Plots of the coefficients of U.S. inflation and Philippine inflation predict the direction of the U.S. dollar-Philippine peso exchange rates to be opposite to that predicted by the Taylor principle.

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