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Articles 1231 - 1260 of 2456

Full-Text Articles in Economics

Constrained Inefficiency And Optimal Taxation With Uninsurable Risks, Piero Gottardi, Atsushi Kajii, Tomoyuki Nakajima Feb 2016

Constrained Inefficiency And Optimal Taxation With Uninsurable Risks, Piero Gottardi, Atsushi Kajii, Tomoyuki Nakajima

Research Collection School Of Economics

When individuals' labor and capital income are subject to uninsurable idiosyncratic risks, should capital and labor be taxed, and if so how? In a two-period general equilibrium model with production, we derive a decomposition formula of the welfare effects of these taxes into insurance and distribution effects. This allows us to determine how the sign of the optimal taxes on capital and labor depend on the nature of the shocks and the degree of heterogeneity among consumers' income, as well as on the way in which the tax revenue is used to provide lump-sum transfers to consumers. When shocks affect …

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Ipo Performance And Trading Around Lock-Up Expiration, Yuchen Wang Jan 2016

Ipo Performance And Trading Around Lock-Up Expiration, Yuchen Wang

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

During the lock-up period, company insiders are prohibited from selling their shares for a set period immediately after initial public offerings (IPOs), usually 180 days. This strict prohibition limits the borrowing of securities by short sellers within this period. Therefore, upon reaching the lock-up expiry date, the short-sale constraint may be loosened and new investors may rush into the stock market, which affects asset price and stock return. This thesis focuses on the IPOs’ performance during the lock-up period and the reasons for the unusual performance. The first section commences by questioning the role of the short seller and its …

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A Tale Of Two Option Markets: Pricing Kernels And Volatility Risk, Zhaogang Song, Dacheng Xiu Jan 2016

A Tale Of Two Option Markets: Pricing Kernels And Volatility Risk, Zhaogang Song, Dacheng Xiu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using both S&P 500 option and recently introduced VIX option prices, we study pricing kernels and their dependence on multiple volatility factors. We first propose nonparametric estimates of marginal pricing kernels, conditional on the VIX and the slope of the variance swap term structure. Our estimates highlight the state-dependence nature of the pricing kernels. In particular, conditioning on volatility factors, the pricing kernel of market returns exhibit a downward sloping shape up to the extreme end of the right tail. Moreover, the volatility pricing kernel features a striking U-shape, implying that investors have high marginal utility in both high and …

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Robust Information Cascade With Endogenous Ordering, Yi Zhang Jan 2016

Robust Information Cascade With Endogenous Ordering, Yi Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We analyze a sequential decision model with endogenous ordering in which decision makers are allowed to choose the time of acting (exercising a risky investment option) or waiting. We show the existence of a unique symmetric equilibrium and characterize information cascade under endogenous ordering. Further, if there are two or more risky investment options, individuals tend to wait longer with competition. Hence, we could end up with a dilemma: more options might be worse.

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New Distribution Theory For The Estimation Of Structural Break Point In Mean, Liang Jiang, Xiaohu Wang, Jun Yu Jan 2016

New Distribution Theory For The Estimation Of Structural Break Point In Mean, Liang Jiang, Xiaohu Wang, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Based on the Girsanov theorem, this paper first obtains the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of structural break point in a continuous time model. The exact distribution is asymmetric and tri-modal, indicating that the estimator is seriously biased. These two properties are also found in the finite sample distribution of the least squares estimator of structural break point in the discrete time model. The paper then builds a continuous time approximation to the discrete time model and develops an in-fill asymptotic theory for the least squares estimator. The obtained in-fill asymptotic distribution is asymmetric and tri-modal and delivers …

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Meritocracy Voting: Measuring The Unmeasurable, Peter C. B. Phillips Jan 2016

Meritocracy Voting: Measuring The Unmeasurable, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

Learned societies commonly carry out selection processes to add new fellows to an existing fellowship. Criteria vary across societies but are typically based on subjective judgments concerning the merit of individuals who are nominated for fellowships. These subjective assessments may be made by existing fellows as they vote in elections to determine the new fellows or they may be decided by a selection committee of fellows and officers of the society who determine merit after reviewing nominations and written assessments. Human judgment inevitably plays a central role in these determinations and, notwithstanding its limitations, is usually regarded as being a …

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Shrinkage Estimation Of Dynamic Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects, Xun Lu, Liangjun Su Jan 2016

Shrinkage Estimation Of Dynamic Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects, Xun Lu, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider the problem of determining the number of factors and selecting the proper regressors in linear dynamic panel data models with interactive fixed effects. Based on the preliminary estimates of the slope parameters and factors a la Bai (2009) and Moon and Weidner (2015), we propose a method for simultaneous selection of regressors and factors and estimation through the method of adaptive group Lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator). We show that with probability approaching one, our method can correctly select all relevant regressors and factors and shrink the coefficients of irrelevant regressors and redundant factors to zero. …

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Semiparametric Estimation Of Partially Linear Dynamic Panel Data Models With Fixed Effects, Liangjun Su, Yonghui Zhang Jan 2016

Semiparametric Estimation Of Partially Linear Dynamic Panel Data Models With Fixed Effects, Liangjun Su, Yonghui Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we study a partially linear dynamic panel data model with fixed effects, where either exogenous or endogenous variables or both enter the linear part, and the lagged-dependent variable together with some other exogenous variables enter the nonparametric part. Two types of estimation methods are proposed for the first-differenced model. One is composed of a semiparametric GMM estimator for the finite-dimensional parameter θ and a local polynomial estimator for the infinite-dimensional parameter m based on the empirical solutions to Fredholm integral equations of the second kind, and the other is a sieve IV estimate of the parametric and …

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Inference In Near-Singular Regression, Peter C. B. Phillips Jan 2016

Inference In Near-Singular Regression, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper considers stationary regression models with near-collinear regressors. Limit theory is developed for regression estimates and test statistics in cases where the signal matrix is nearly singular in finite samples and is asymptotically degenerate. Examples include models that involve evaporating trends in the regressors that arise in conditions such as growth convergence. Structural equation models are also considered and limit theory is derived for the corresponding instrumental variable (IV) estimator, Wald test statistic, and overidentification test when the regressors are endogenous. It is shown that near-singular designs of the type considered here are not completely fatal to least squares …

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Hot Property In New Zealand: Empirical Evidence Of Housing Bubbles In The Metropolitan Centres, Ryan Greenaway-Mcgrevy, Peter C. B. Phillips Jan 2016

Hot Property In New Zealand: Empirical Evidence Of Housing Bubbles In The Metropolitan Centres, Ryan Greenaway-Mcgrevy, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

Using recently developed statistical methods for testing and dating exuberant behaviour in asset prices we document evidence of episodic bubbles in the New Zealand property market over the past two decades. The results show clear evidence of a broad-based New Zealand housing bubble that began in 2003 and collapsed over mid-2007 to early 2008 with the onset of the worldwide recession and the financial crisis. New methods of analysing market contagion are also developed and are used to examine spillovers from the Auckland property market to the other metropolitan centres. Evidence from the latest data reveals that the greater Auckland …

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Csi Agent On A Mission Game App, Ju Mae Rosie Ching Dec 2015

Csi Agent On A Mission Game App, Ju Mae Rosie Ching

Research Collection School Of Economics

CSI is a one-of-a-kind and first-ever iPad gaming app released early August, with the flash game at http://www.rosieching.com/csi. My primary objective was to realize my dreamed-up “MISSION STATISTICS” theme for students to apply their skills in hypothesis tests and linear regression. Another is the incorporation of their CSI results into an “enrichment 5%” of their grades. The harder an agent works, the higher his score, the sweeter the fruit of the labour which students always show massive enthusiasm for. It is also critical that students review their real-time progress, and I have ensured that in every step of each country’s …

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Linear Programming-Based Estimators In Nonnegative Autoregression, Daniel P. A. Preve Dec 2015

Linear Programming-Based Estimators In Nonnegative Autoregression, Daniel P. A. Preve

Research Collection School Of Economics

This note studies robust estimation of the autoregressive (AR) parameter in a nonlinear, nonnegative AR model. It is shown that a linear programming estimator (LPE), considered by Nielsen and Shephard (2003) among others, remains consistent under severe model misspecification. Consequently, the LPE can be used to seek sources of misspecification and to isolate certain trend, seasonal or cyclical components. Simple and quite general conditions under which the LPE is strongly consistent in the presence of heavy-tailed, serially correlated, heteroskedastic disturbances are given, and a brief review of the literature on LP-based estimators in nonnegative autoregression is presented. Finite-sample properties of …

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The Impact Of Agglomeration Economies On Hospital Input Prices, Andrew Friedson, Jing Li Dec 2015

The Impact Of Agglomeration Economies On Hospital Input Prices, Andrew Friedson, Jing Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper examines the extent to which agglomeration of the hospital service industry enhances the productivity of producing health care. Specifically, we use a large set of private insurance claims from the FAIR Health database to show that an increasing spatial concentration of hospital services results in a decreased cost of obtaining intermediate medical services. We explicitly test whether the reduced cost at concentrated locations arises from the ability to share intermediate service providers. The identification relies on state variation in medical lab technician licensure requirements, which influence the cost of intermediate services only through the cost of running a …

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Trade Integration, Income Divergence, And Global Imbalances, Haiping Zhang Dec 2015

Trade Integration, Income Divergence, And Global Imbalances, Haiping Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We embed financial frictions and sector-specific minimum investment requirements (MIR) in a two-factor, two-sector, overlapping-generation model and showthat whether trade integration leads to convergence of the income levels among member states depends on their level of financial development. It helps reconcilethe mixed empirical evidence on trade integration and income dynamics in differentgroups of countries from the institutional perspective. In the recent decades, trade globalization has allowed developed countries to specialize towards the high-MIR, high-return production stages and tasks through international fragmentation of production and global sourcing. In our model, the “sectors” can be interpreted broadly as production stages and tasks. …

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Unified M-Estimation Of Fixed-Effects Spatial Dynamic Models With Short Panels, Zhenlin Yang Dec 2015

Unified M-Estimation Of Fixed-Effects Spatial Dynamic Models With Short Panels, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

It is well known that quasi maximum likelihood (QML) estimation of dynamic panel data (DPD) models with short panels depends on the assumptions on the initial values, and a wrong treatment of them will result in inconsistency and serious bias. The same issues apply to spatial DPD (SDPD) models with short panels. In this paper, a unified Mestimation method is proposed for estimating the fixed-effects SDPD models containing three major types of spatial effects, namely spatial lag, spatial error and space-time lag. The method is free from the specification of the distribution of the initial observations and robust against nonnormality …

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Institutional Complementarity Across Countries In Bilateral Fdi Flows: Theory And Evidence, Pao-Li Chang Dec 2015

Institutional Complementarity Across Countries In Bilateral Fdi Flows: Theory And Evidence, Pao-Li Chang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper builds a theory to characterize the comparative advantage of MNEs based in countries of different institutional qualities. It is shown that MNEs headquartered in countries of poorer state institutions will invest more in `informal institutions; and choose to undertake FDI in countries of weaker institutions. At the aggregate, MNEs on average generate more net profits in countries of weaker institutions, the poorer the institutional environment at home. I conduct an extensive test of the theory using bilateral FDI volume for 219 economies in year 2001-2010. The results indicate a statistically significant and robust institutional complementarity effect in bilateral …

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New Methodology For Constructing Real Estate Price Indices Applied To The Singapore Residential Market, Liang Jiang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu Dec 2015

New Methodology For Constructing Real Estate Price Indices Applied To The Singapore Residential Market, Liang Jiang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops a new methodology for constructing a real estate price index that utilizes all transaction price information, encompassing both single-sales and repeat-sales. The method is less susceptible to specification error than standard hedonic methods and is not subject to the sample selection bias involved in indexes that rely only on repeat sales. The methodology employs a model design that uses a sale pairing process based on the individual building level, rather than the individual house level as is used in the repeat-sales method. The approach extends ideas from repeat-sales methodology in a way that accommodates much wider datasets. …

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Intraday Value-At-Risk: An Asymmetric Autoregressive Conditional Duration Approach, Shouwei Liu, Yiu Kuen Tse Dec 2015

Intraday Value-At-Risk: An Asymmetric Autoregressive Conditional Duration Approach, Shouwei Liu, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose to compute the Intraday Value-at-Risk (IVaR) for stocks using real-time transaction data. Tick-by-tick data filtered by price duration are modeled using a two-state asymmetric autoregressive conditional duration (AACD) model, and the IVaR is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation based on the estimated AACD model. Backtesting results for the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) show that the IVaR calculated using the AACD method outperforms those using the Dionne et al. (2009) and Giot (2005) methods.

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Adaptive Nonparametric Regression With Conditional Heteroskedasticity, Sainan Jin, Liangjun Su, Zhijie Xiao Dec 2015

Adaptive Nonparametric Regression With Conditional Heteroskedasticity, Sainan Jin, Liangjun Su, Zhijie Xiao

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we study adaptive nonparametric regression estimation in the presence of conditional heteroskedastic error terms. We demonstrate that both the conditional mean and conditional variance functions in a nonparametric regression model can be estimated adaptively based on the local profile likelihood principle. Both the one-step Newton-Raphson estimator and the local profile likelihood estimator are investigated. We show that the proposed estimators are asymptotically equivalent to the infeasible local likelihood estimators [e.g., Aerts and Claeskens (1997) Journal of the American Statistical Association 92, 1536-1545], which require knowledge of the error distribution. Simulation evidence suggests that when the distribution of …

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Competition And Gains From Trade: A Quantitative Analysis Of China Between 1995 And 2004, Wen-Tai Hsu, Yi Lu, Guiying Laura Wu Dec 2015

Competition And Gains From Trade: A Quantitative Analysis Of China Between 1995 And 2004, Wen-Tai Hsu, Yi Lu, Guiying Laura Wu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper provides a quantitative analysis of gains from trade for China over the period of 1995-2004, which was when China's openness drastically improved. We decompose gains from trade in two ways. First, we disentangle pro-competitive effects from a traditional Ricardian effect. Second, we separate the effect due to tariff reductions from that due to reductions in non-tariff trade costs. Our quantitative analysis shows that the pro-competitive effects account for 25.4% of the total welfare gains from trade, whereas the allocative efficiency alone accounts for 22.3%. We also find that tariff reductions account for about 31.6% of reductions of overall …

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The Next Wave Of Globalisation, Singapore Management University Nov 2015

The Next Wave Of Globalisation, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

As consumption patterns shift away from OECD countries to the developing world, businesses need to leverage on technology to overcome last-mile delivery obstacles

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Real Estate Investments In Asia: More Than A Place To Call Home, John Lim Nov 2015

Real Estate Investments In Asia: More Than A Place To Call Home, John Lim

Asian Management Insights

Real estate investment in Asia is currently trending. But what does the future hold?

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Borderless Markets: A Boon Or Bane For Marketers?, Philip Charles Zerrillo Nov 2015

Borderless Markets: A Boon Or Bane For Marketers?, Philip Charles Zerrillo

Asian Management Insights

Economic integration and free trade isnot always a panacea for businesses.

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Improved Inferences For Spatial Regression Models, Shew Fan Liu, Zhenlin Yang Nov 2015

Improved Inferences For Spatial Regression Models, Shew Fan Liu, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

The quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) method is popular in the estimation and inference for spatial regression models. However, the QML estimators (QMLEs) of the spatial parameters can be quite biased and hence the standard inferences for the regression coefficients (based on t-ratios) can be seriously affected. This issue, however, has not been addressed. The QMLEs of the spatial parameters can be bias-corrected based on the general method of Yang (2015b, J. of Econometrics 186, 178-200). In this paper, we demonstrate that by simply replacing the QMLEs of the spatial parameters by their bias-corrected versions, the usual t-ratios for the regression coefficients …

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Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Limit Theory Of Real-Time Detectors, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu Nov 2015

Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Limit Theory Of Real-Time Detectors, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article provides the limit theory of real-time dating algorithms for bubble detection that were suggested in Phillips, Wu, and Yu (PWY; International Economic Review 52 [2011], 201-26) and in a companion paper by the present authors (Phillips, Shi, and Yu, 2015; PSY; International Economic Review 56 [2015a], 1099-1134. Bubbles are modeled using mildly explosive bubble episodes that are embedded within longer periods where the data evolve as a stochastic trend, thereby capturing normal market behavior as well as exuberance and collapse. Both the PWY and PSY estimates rely on recursive right-tailed unit root tests (each with a different recursive …

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Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu Nov 2015

Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Recent work on econometric detection mechanisms has shown the effectiveness of recursive procedures in identifying and dating financial bubbles in real time. These procedures are useful as warning alerts in surveillance strategies conducted by central banks and fiscal regulators with real-time data. Use of these methods over long historical periods presents a more serious econometric challenge due to the complexity of the nonlinear structure and break mechanisms that are inherent in multiple-bubble phenomena within the same sample period. To meet this challenge, this article develops a new recursive flexible window method that is better suited for practical implementation with long …

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Optimal Taxation And Debt With Uninsurable Risks To Human Capital Accumulation, Piero Gottardi, Atsushi Kajii, Tomoyuki Nakajima Nov 2015

Optimal Taxation And Debt With Uninsurable Risks To Human Capital Accumulation, Piero Gottardi, Atsushi Kajii, Tomoyuki Nakajima

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider an economy where individuals face uninsurable risks to their human capital accumulation and analyze the optimal level of linear taxes on capital and labor income together with the optimal path of government debt. We show that in the presence of such risks, it is beneficial to tax both labor and capital and to issue public debt. We also assess the quantitative importance of these findings, and show that the benefits of government debt and capital taxes both increase with the magnitude of idiosyncratic risks and the degree of relative risk aversion.

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A Bayesian Chi-Squared Test For Hypothesis Testing, Yong Li, Xiaobin Liu, Jun Yu Nov 2015

A Bayesian Chi-Squared Test For Hypothesis Testing, Yong Li, Xiaobin Liu, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A new Bayesian test statistic is proposed to test a point null hypothesis based on a quadratic loss. The proposed test statistic may be regarded as the Bayesian version of the Lagrange multiplier test. Its asymptotic distribution is obtained based on a set of regular conditions and follows a chi-squared distribution when the null hypothesis is correct. The new statistic has several important advantages that make it appealing in practical applications. First, it is well-defined under improper prior distributions. Second, it avoids Jeffrey-Lindley's paradox. Third, it always takes a non-negative value and is relatively easy to compute, even for models …

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Living Arrangements And Psychological Well-Being Of The Elderly After The Economic Transition In Vietnam, Ken Yamada, Bussarawan Teerawichitchainan Nov 2015

Living Arrangements And Psychological Well-Being Of The Elderly After The Economic Transition In Vietnam, Ken Yamada, Bussarawan Teerawichitchainan

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

Objectives: We examine the relationship between living arrangements and psychological well-being of the older adults in Vietnam, where there is an influence of Confucian values and a lack of close substitutes for family care of the older adults, by exploiting a great deal of regional variation in economic development. We also examine the role of living arrangements in well-being differentials across regions. Method: We estimate a triangular simultaneous-equation discrete-response model, which accounts for the simultaneity between living arrangements and psychological well-being (happiness, depression, loneliness, poor appetite, and sleep disorder), using a nationally representative sample of 2,225 adults aged 60 and …

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Competition Of The Informed: Does The Presence Of Short Sellers Affect Insider Selling?, Massimo Massa, Wenlan Qian, Weibiao Xu, Hong Zhang Nov 2015

Competition Of The Informed: Does The Presence Of Short Sellers Affect Insider Selling?, Massimo Massa, Wenlan Qian, Weibiao Xu, Hong Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We study how the presence of short sellers affects the incentives of the insiders to trade on negative information. We show it induces insiders to sell more (shares from their existing stakes) and trade faster to preempt the potential competition from short sellers. An experiment and instrumental variable analysis confirm this causal relationship. The effects are stronger for "opportunistic" (i.e., more informed) insider trades and when short sellers' attention is high. Return predictability of insider sales only occurs in stocks with high short-selling potential, suggesting that short sellers indirectly enhance the speed of information dissemination by accelerating trading by insiders. …

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