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Full-Text Articles in Economics

Harmful Transparency In Teams, Parimal Bag, Nona Pepito May 2016

Harmful Transparency In Teams, Parimal Bag, Nona Pepito

Research Collection School Of Economics

In a two-player team project with efforts over two rounds, we demonstrate that observability of peer efforts can be strictly harmful if preferences are utilitarian. This contrasts with Mohnen et al. (2000) who show in a similar setting that observability of interim efforts induces more efforts, if team members are inequity-averse.

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Competition And Gains From Trade: A Quantitative Analysis Of China Between 1995 And 2004, Wen-Tai Hsu, Yi Lu, Guiying Laura Wu May 2016

Competition And Gains From Trade: A Quantitative Analysis Of China Between 1995 And 2004, Wen-Tai Hsu, Yi Lu, Guiying Laura Wu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper provides a quantitative analysis of gains from trade for China over the period of 1995-2004, which was when China's openness drastically improved. We decompose gains from trade in two ways. First, we disentangle pro-competitive effects from a traditional Ricardian effect. Second, we separate the effect due to tariff reductions from that due to reductions in non-tariff trade costs. Our quantitative analysis shows that the pro-competitive effects account for 25.4% of the total welfare gains from trade, whereas the allocative effciency alone accounts for 22.3%. We also find that tariff reductions account for about 31.6% of reductions of overall …

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A Characterization Of Single‐Peaked Preferences Via Random Social Choice Functions, Shurojit Chatterji, Arunava Sen, Huaxia Zeng May 2016

A Characterization Of Single‐Peaked Preferences Via Random Social Choice Functions, Shurojit Chatterji, Arunava Sen, Huaxia Zeng

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper proves the following result: every path-connected domain of preferences that admits a strategy-proof, unanimous, tops-only random social choice function satisfying a compromise property is single-peaked. Conversely, every single-peaked domain admits a random social choice function satisfying these properties. Single-peakedness is defined with respect to arbitrary trees. The paper provides a justification of the salience of single-peaked preferences and evidence in favor of the Gul conjecture (Barber\303\240 2010).

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Energy Price Shocks And External Balances, Bao Tan Huynh May 2016

Energy Price Shocks And External Balances, Bao Tan Huynh

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies the impact of a wide set of energy price shocks on exter- nal balances using a two-country framework comprising multiple sectors and en- dogenous energy production with convex costs. The paper disentangles different demand and supply shocks in the energy market through their distinct impact on external balances. It provides a theoretical confirmation of Kilian et al. (2009) and a theoretical foundation to the determining role of the non-energy trade balance in the transmission of energy price shocks. The presence of durables also highlights the immediate channel through which energy prices impact the non-energy trade balance.

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Bringing The Economy Back In: Hannah Arendt, Karl Marx, And The Politics Of Capitalism, Onur Ulas Ince Apr 2016

Bringing The Economy Back In: Hannah Arendt, Karl Marx, And The Politics Of Capitalism, Onur Ulas Ince

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

This article engages with the question of how to construct modern economic relations as an object of political theorizing by placing Hannah Arendt's and Karl Marx's writings in critical conversation. I contend that the political aspect of capitalism comes into sharpest relief less in relations of economic exploitation than in moments of expropriation that produce and reproduce the conditions of capitalist accumulation. To develop a theoretical handle on expropriation and thereby on the politics of capitalism, I syncretically draw on Marxian and Arendtian concepts by first examining expropriation through the Marxian analytic of "primitive accumulation of capital" and second delineating …

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Benchmarking And Currency Risk, Massimo Massa, Yanbo Wang, Hong Zhang Apr 2016

Benchmarking And Currency Risk, Massimo Massa, Yanbo Wang, Hong Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We show that the currency risk embedded in the benchmarks of international mutual funds negatively affects fund performance. More specifically, a high benchmark-implied currency risk induces funds to invest in markets with less volatile currencies, leading to a higher degree of currency concentration in portfolio holdings. This currency concentration, however, departs from the optimal equity allocation strategy across countries and reduces fund performance. We document that funds resorting to high currency concentrations underperform funds with low currency concentrations by as much as 1%-2% per year.

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Macroeconomic Effects Of Energy Price Shocks On The Business Cycle, Bao Tan Huynh Apr 2016

Macroeconomic Effects Of Energy Price Shocks On The Business Cycle, Bao Tan Huynh

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper proposes a framework of endogenous energy production with convex costs to investigate the general equilibrium effects of energy price shocks on the business cycle. This framework explicitly models the consumption of durables and nondurables and implements a high complementarity between energy and the usage of durables and capital. The model predicts energy price elasticities of various consumption variables that fall within reasonable agreement with empirical estimates. Convex costs in energy production produce energy price and energy supply dynamics that tallies well with empirical behavior. Our analysis confirms in a theoretical setting recent observations that not all energy price …

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Nonparametric Cointegrating Regression With Endogeneity And Long Memory, Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips Apr 2016

Nonparametric Cointegrating Regression With Endogeneity And Long Memory, Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper explores nonparametric estimation, inference, and specification testing in a nonlinear cointegrating regression model where the structural equation errors are serially dependent and where the regressor is endogenous and may be driven by long memory innovations. Generalizing earlier results of Wang and Phillips (2009a, b, Econometric Theory 25, 710-738, Econometrica 77, 1901-1948), the conventional nonparametric local level kernel estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptotically (mixed) normal in these cases, thereby opening up inference by conventional nonparametric methods to a wide class of potentially nonlinear cointegrated relations. New results on the consistency of parametric estimates in nonlinear cointegrating …

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Disentangling Greenhouse Warming And Aerosol Cooling To Reveal Earth's Climate Sensitivity, T. Storelvmo, T. Leirvik, U. Lohmann, Peter C. B. Phillips, M. Wild Apr 2016

Disentangling Greenhouse Warming And Aerosol Cooling To Reveal Earth's Climate Sensitivity, T. Storelvmo, T. Leirvik, U. Lohmann, Peter C. B. Phillips, M. Wild

Research Collection School Of Economics

Earth's climate sensitivity has long been subject to heated debate and has spurred renewed interest after the latest IPCC assessment report suggested a downward adjustment of its most likely range(1). Recent observational studies have produced estimates of transient climate sensitivity, that is, the global mean surface temperature increase at the time of CO2 doubling, as low as 1.3 K (refs 2,3), well below the best estimate produced by global climate models (1.8 K). Here, we present an observation-based study of the time period 1964 to 2010, which does not rely on climate models. The method incorporates observations of greenhouse gas …

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Entrepreneurship, College And Credit: The Golden Triangle, Roberto M Samaniego, Juliana Yu Sun Apr 2016

Entrepreneurship, College And Credit: The Golden Triangle, Roberto M Samaniego, Juliana Yu Sun

Research Collection School Of Economics

We develop a model to evaluate the impact of college education finance on welfare, inequality and aggregate outcomes. Our model captures the stylized fact that entrepreneurs with college are more common and more profitable. Our calibration to US data suggests this is mainly because higher labor earnings allow college educated agents to ameliorate credit constraints when they become entrepreneurs. The welfare benefits of subsidizing education are greater than those of eliminating financing constraints on education because subsidies ameliorate the impact of financing constraints on would-be entrepreneurs.

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Investment-Specific Technical Change And Growth Around The World, Roberto M. Samaniego, Juliana Yu Sun Apr 2016

Investment-Specific Technical Change And Growth Around The World, Roberto M. Samaniego, Juliana Yu Sun

Research Collection School Of Economics

Investment-specific technical change (ISTC) contributes little to growth in most countries. This is because in many countries the investment process does not become notably more efficient over time. Still, cross-country differences in the contribution of ISTC to growth are significant. Differences in the rate of ISTC appear due to cross-country variation in the use of R&D intensive capital goods, as well as trade costs.

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Entrepreneurship, Education And Credit: The Golden Triangle, Roberto M. Samaniego, Juliana Yu Sun Apr 2016

Entrepreneurship, Education And Credit: The Golden Triangle, Roberto M. Samaniego, Juliana Yu Sun

Research Collection School Of Economics

We develop a model to evaluate the impact of college education finance on welfare, inequality and aggregate outcomes. Our model captures the stylized fact that entrepreneurs with college are more common and more profitable. Our calibration to US data suggests this is mainly because higher labor earnings allow college educated agents to ameliorate credit constraints when they become entrepreneurs. The welfare benefits of subsidizing education are greater than those of eliminating financing constraints on education because subsidies ameliorate the impact of financing constraints on would-be entrepreneurs.

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Sanctions Under The Eu Generalised System Of Preferences And Foreign Policy: Coherence By Accident?, Clara Portela, Jan Orbie Mar 2016

Sanctions Under The Eu Generalised System Of Preferences And Foreign Policy: Coherence By Accident?, Clara Portela, Jan Orbie

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

This article investigates the relationship between the European Union's withdrawal of trade benefits for developing countries under the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) and its sanctions under the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). Our expectation is that GSP withdrawals and CFSP sanctions will not cohere. However, our research reveals that GSP suspension has been coherent with CFSP sanctions when the latter exist prior to the decision-making process on GSP sanctions and when the International Labour Organisation has set up a Commission of Inquiry condemning the country, as with Myanmar/Burma and Belarus. The presence of separate institutional frameworks explains the …

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Balancing Short-Term Concerns, Long-Term Goals, Tan K. B. Eugene Mar 2016

Balancing Short-Term Concerns, Long-Term Goals, Tan K. B. Eugene

Research Collection Yong Pung How School Of Law

To be delivered almost a month later than usual, this year’s Budget will be closely watched for Singapore’s strategy on economic growth, income redistribution, reducing societal inequality and the government’s role in seeking a national consensus on these key issues.

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A General Framework For Price Regulation Of Airports, Sock Yong Phang Mar 2016

A General Framework For Price Regulation Of Airports, Sock Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Price cap regulation (PCR) was first implemented for privatized utilities in the UK in the 1980s. It has since been adopted by numerous countries as a regulatory regime in several sectors. This paper focuses on the development of different forms of price regulation of airports of which PCR is one variant. In countries where airport privatization is still in the early stages, the spectrum of airports and varied nature of regulatory regimes can be confusing and the lack of a general framework can itself become an obstacle to privatization. This paper proposes a general framework comprising decisions to be made …

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Shrinkage Estimation Of Common Breaks In Panel Data Models Via Adaptive Group Fused Lasso, Junhui Qian, Liangjun Su Mar 2016

Shrinkage Estimation Of Common Breaks In Panel Data Models Via Adaptive Group Fused Lasso, Junhui Qian, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we consider estimation and inference of common breaks in panel data models via adaptive group fused Lasso. We consider two approaches—penalized least squares (PLS) for first-differenced models without endogenous regressors, and penalized GMM (PGMM) for first-differenced models with endogeneity. We show that with probability tending to one, both methods can correctly determine the unknown number of breaks and estimate the common break dates consistently. We establish the asymptotic distributions of the Lasso estimators of the regression coefficients and their post Lasso versions. We also propose and validate a data-driven method to determine the tuning parameter used in …

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Implementation With Transfers, Yi-Chun Chen, Takashi Kunimoto, Yifei Sun Mar 2016

Implementation With Transfers, Yi-Chun Chen, Takashi Kunimoto, Yifei Sun

Research Collection School Of Economics

We say that a social choice rule is implementable with (small) transfers if one candesign a mechanism whose set of equilibrium outcomes coincides with that speciÖed bythe rule but the mechanism allows for (small) ex post transfers among the players. Weshow in private-value environments that any incentive compatible rule is implementablewith small transfers. We obtain this permissive implementation result by proposinga natural extension of Abreu and Matsushima (1994) to incomplete information environments.Furthermore, in order to showcase the applicability of our results, we relatethem to the recent developments in implementation theory. Next we revisit the conjectureby Abreu and Matsushima (1994), who …

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Sieve Instrumental Variable Quantile Regression Estimation Of Functional Coefficient Models, Liangjun Su, Tadao Hoshino Mar 2016

Sieve Instrumental Variable Quantile Regression Estimation Of Functional Coefficient Models, Liangjun Su, Tadao Hoshino

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we consider sieve instrumental variable quantile regression (IVQR) estimation of functional coefficient models where the coefficients of endogenous regressors are unknown functions of some exogenous covariates. We estimate the functional coefficients by the sieve-IVQR technique and establish the uniform consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimators. Based on the sieve estimates, we propose a nonparametric specification test for the constancy of the functional coefficients and study its asymptotic. We conduct simulations to evaluate the finite sample behavior of our estimator and test statistic, and apply our method to study the estimation of quantile Engel curves.

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Estimation Of Large Dimensional Factor Models With An Unknown Number Of Breaks, Shujie Ma, Liangjun Su Mar 2016

Estimation Of Large Dimensional Factor Models With An Unknown Number Of Breaks, Shujie Ma, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we study the estimation of a large dimensional factor model when the factor loadings exhibit an unknown number of changes over time. We propose a novel three-step procedure to detect the breaks if any and then identify their locations. In the first step, we divide the whole time span into subintervals and fit a conventional factor model on each interval. In the second step, we apply the adaptive fused group Lasso to identify intervals containing a break. In the third step, we devise a grid search method to estimate the location of the break on each identified …

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Model Selection For Explosive Models, Yubo Tao, Jun Yu Mar 2016

Model Selection For Explosive Models, Yubo Tao, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper examines the limit properties of information criteria for distinguishing between the unit root model and the various kinds of explosive models. The information criteria include AIC, BIC, HQIC. The explosive models include the local-to-unit-root model, the mildly explosive model and the regular explosive model. Initial conditions with different order of magnitude are considered. Both the OLS estimator and the indirect inference estimator are studied. It is found that BIC and HQIC, but not AIC, consistently select the unit root model when data come from the unit root model. When data come from the local-to-unit-root model, both BIC and …

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Housing Policies In Singapore, Sock Yong Phang, Matthias Helble Mar 2016

Housing Policies In Singapore, Sock Yong Phang, Matthias Helble

Research Collection School Of Economics

Singapore has developed a unique housing system, with three-quarters of its housing stock built by the Housing & Development Board (HDB) and homeownership financed through Central Provident Fund (CPF) savings. As a result, the country’s homeownership rate of 90% is one of the highest among market economies. At different stages of its economic development, the Government of Singapore was faced with a different set of housing problems. An integrated land–housing supply and financing framework was established in the 1960s to solve the severe housing shortage. By the 1990s, the challenge was that of renewing aging estates and creating a market …

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Optimal International Agreement And Restriction On Domestic Efficiency, Gea M. Lee Mar 2016

Optimal International Agreement And Restriction On Domestic Efficiency, Gea M. Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

The WTO's strict treatment of domestic subsidies has not been well received in the existing literature. An essential reason is that the consequent restriction on domestic efficiency is hardly compatible with the existing theory of government intervention under which the primary objective of using domestic subsidies, domestic efficiency, is not sacrificed for another objective. We develop a trade-agreement model in which the magnitude of a legitimate domestic subsidy with which to address a production externality is private information. We find that an optimal agreement substantially restricts domestic efficiency for the international objective of expanding market access.

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Subsidies And Countervailing Duties, Gea M. Lee Mar 2016

Subsidies And Countervailing Duties, Gea M. Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

This survey pays attention to a recent development of the literature that analyzes two important regulatory features found in the Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (the SCM agreement): the restrictive treatment of domestic subsidies and the general prohibition of export subsidies. The WTO's restriction on domestic subsidies is challenged by the existing terms-of-trade theory that offers an efficiency foundation for the market-access focus of the GATT rules. On the other hand, against the backdrop of the SCM agreement and preferential trade agreements (PTAs), a recent literature attempts to provide a rationale for the WTO to restrict the use of …

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Contributions To The Committee On The Future Economy, Singapore Management University Mar 2016

Contributions To The Committee On The Future Economy, Singapore Management University

Research Collection School Of Economics

In response to the call to contribute to the dialogue initiated by the Committee on The Future Economy (CFE), SMU has held a series of engagement sessions with faculty and staff to brainstorm and propose recommendations to add to the government’s deliberations on strategies for the next stage of Singapore’s economic growth. Through the leadership of SMU Provost, Professor Lily Kong, faculty and senior staff produced various recommendations on five key areas namely Corporate Capabilities and Innovation, Future Growth Industries & Markets, Future of Connectivity, Future City and Future Jobs and Skills.

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Quantity Discounts And Capital Misallocation In Vertical Relationships, Ken Onishi Feb 2016

Quantity Discounts And Capital Misallocation In Vertical Relationships, Ken Onishi

Research Collection School Of Economics

I study transactions between aircraft manufacturers and airlines as well as airlines' utilization of their fleet. Aircraft production is characterized by economies of scale via learning-by-doing, which creates a trade-off between current profit and future competitive advantage in the aircraft market. The latter consideration makes large buyers more attractive than small buyers and induces quantity discounts. The resulting nonlinear pricing strategy may distort both production and allocation in favor of large buyers. In the data, there is a negative correlation between the size of aircraft orders and the per-unit price, and a positive correlation between the price paid and the …

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Common Threshold In Quantile Regressions With An Application To Pricing For Reputation, Liangjun Su, Pai Xu, Heng Ju Feb 2016

Common Threshold In Quantile Regressions With An Application To Pricing For Reputation, Liangjun Su, Pai Xu, Heng Ju

Research Collection School Of Economics

The paper develops a systematic estimation and inference procedure for quantile regression models where there may exist a common threshold effect across different quantile indices. We first propose a sup-Wald test for the existence of a threshold effect, and then study the asymptotic properties of the estimators in a threshold quantile regression model under the shrinking-threshold-effect framework. We consider several tests for the presence of a common threshold value across different quantile indices and obtain their limiting distributions. We apply our methodology to study the pricing strategy for reputation via the use of a dataset from Taobao.com. In our economic …

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Testing For Monotonicity In Unobservables Under Unconfoundedness, Stefan Hoderlein, Liangjun Su, Halbert White, Thomas Tao Yang Feb 2016

Testing For Monotonicity In Unobservables Under Unconfoundedness, Stefan Hoderlein, Liangjun Su, Halbert White, Thomas Tao Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Monotonicity in a scalar unobservable is a common assumption when modeling heterogeneity in structural models. Among other things, it allows one to recover the underlying structural function from certain conditional quantiles of observables. Nevertheless, monotonicity is a strong assumption and in some economic applications unlikely to hold, e.g., random coefficient models. Its failure can have substantive adverse consequences, in particular inconsistency of any estimator that is based on it. Having a test for this hypothesis is hence desirable. This paper provides such a test for cross-section data. We show how to exploit an exclusion restriction together with a conditional independence …

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Granger Causality And Structural Causality In Cross-Section And Panel Data, Xun Lu, Liangjun Su, Halbert White Feb 2016

Granger Causality And Structural Causality In Cross-Section And Panel Data, Xun Lu, Liangjun Su, Halbert White

Research Collection School Of Economics

Granger non-causality in distribution is fundamentally a probabilistic conditional independence notion that can be applied not only to time series data but also to cross-section and panel data. In this paper, we provide a natural definition of structural causality in cross-section and panel data and forge a direct link between Granger (G-) causality and structural causality under a key conditional exogeneity assumption. To put it simply, when structural effects are well defined and identifiable, G- non-causality follows from structural non-causality, and with suitable conditions (e.g., separability or monotonicity), structural causality also implies G-causality. This justifies using tests of G- non-causality …

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Are House Prices Driven By Capital Flows? Evidence From Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Taojun Xie Feb 2016

Are House Prices Driven By Capital Flows? Evidence From Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Taojun Xie

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper investigates whether real house price appreciations can be attributed to the surge in real capital inflows into Singapore. We proxy capital flows by using the amount of foreign direct investments (FDI) to real estate capturing the foreign purchases of property in Singapore which we deflate by the private residential property price index. Notwithstanding the absence of a cointegrating relationship, our results support the hypothesis that lagged short term fluctuations in capital inflows are positively associated with the growth rates of house prices over the last decade. We also provide evidence that macroprudential measures implemented by Singapore reduced the …

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Is Urban Food Demand In The Philippines Different From China?, Tomoki Fujii Feb 2016

Is Urban Food Demand In The Philippines Different From China?, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

Food is an essential good, and thus understanding its demand is important for the formulation of sound agricultural policies and developing sustainable agricultural business. A timely analysis of food demand is important because it can change over time not only because prices and incomes change but also because people’s taste itself also change. However, even in countries where food accounts for a sizable share of expenditure or where the agricultural sector accounts for a large share of output, careful analysis of food demand is often not readily available. In this study, we analyze the food demand in urban Philippines and …

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