Economics Commons^™

Exploring Information Leakage In Historical Stock Market Data, Edison Hua

Dissertations and Theses

Information leakage is a major concern for traders who want to execute large orders without affecting the market price. In this paper, we explore the sources and effects of information leakage in historical stock market data using various methods and metrics. We first define information leakage as a pattern caused by a trader that would otherwise not occur without the trader’s activity. Using historical data, the direct impact of a potential large trade cannot be measured, but we consider a minimal impact large trade to be one that minimizes changes to the established trading data. We then analyze how information …

Intergenerational Transmission Of Occupation In The United States, Swapnil Landge

Publications and Research

This paper explores the persistence of inequality via intergenerational transmission of occupations using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) data from 1968 to 2001 of 56,952 unique parent-child pairs. I find that having a father who is in the top and bottom strata† of the socioeconomic professional category has a positive and significant effect on the probability that a son will follow the same professional category as the father, which supports my main hypothesis of persistence of income inequality concerning the transmission of the occupations. The main concern that has been addressed in this paper is that the intangible …

Fairness Doesn't Have To Be Egalitarian: Evidence From Bargaining Games, Kevin Wong

Theses and Dissertations

I develop a theoretical model and provide experimental evidence that social norms of fairness play a critical role in determining equilibrium outcomes in bargaining games.

Financial Institutions Continue To Adopt Crypto Despite Industry Turmoil, Andre Beganski

Capstones

Even though this calamitous year has raised doubts about crypto's future, not a single large financial institution has backed away from their forays into digital assets. And despite a period of turmoil that’s seen the market value of all cryptocurrencies crater to under $880 billion from over $3 trillion, many sizable firms continue to view crypto as an emerging sector of finance and technology that’s rife with opportunity.

While financial firms have the potential to foster a widespread perception of cryptocurrencies as a legitimate asset class, their involvement runs counter to the intent of those who pioneered blockchain technology for …

Assessing The Impact Of Ferry Transit On Urban Crime, Bryan S. Weber, Paolo Cappellari

Publications and Research

In 2017, over a dozen ferry stations were introduced across the NYC region on multiple dates, serving roughly 10,000 customers per day. We measure a negative association between these stations and crime reduction, a significant decline of 11 crimes per week (11%) at a one-mile radius around the stations, and about 1 crime per week (32%) over the extremely narrow base of crime at the station itself. We also find no evidence of crime displacement. This study first utilized a traditional difference-in-differences methodology, but we also used a new tool, the causal random forest. Both methodologies are compared and contrasted …

Logic, Co-Ordination And The Envelope Of Our Beliefs, Rohit J. Parikh

Publications and Research

Each of us has a story which we can think of as a set of beliefs, hopefully consistent. We make our decisions in view of our beliefs which may be probabilistic, in the general case, but simple yes or no as in this paper. Our beliefs are our envelope just as the shell of a tortoise is its envelope.

Decision theory - or single agent game theory tells us when to make the best choice in a game of us against nature. But nature has no desire to further or frustrate our efforts. Nature is mysterious but not malign.

Things …

The Impact Of Covid-19 On Employment Characteristics, Eliana Shatkin

Theses and Dissertations

The following study examines ways in which COVID-19 has disrupted the United States labor market. My findings present disproportionately negative effects of COVID-19 on employment, labor force participation, worker absence, and weekly working hours for the female population in my sample, as well as veterans, disabled persons, and racial minorities.

Algorithmic Rationality, Rohit J. Parikh

Publications and Research

The notion of rationality is much discussed by both Economists and Philosophers. Perhaps you are rational if you accept certain axioms of rationality. If you prefer A to B and B to C then you must prefer A to C. Or you can define rationality in terms of the net results of your behavior. We examine a notion of algorithmic rationality. Even animals upwards from the humble tick carry out algorithms. Are they rational? And can we use this theory to define the IQ of animals?

Theory Of Collective Action, Rohit J. Parikh

Publications and Research

Theory predicts that when people pursue their selfish aims then it leads to suboptimal outcomes for society or to the group they belong to. The prisoner's dilemma and the tragedy of the commons are classic examples. In her presidential lecture to the American Political Science Association Elinor Ostrom examined this fact and also noted that in practice people do not always follow the suboptimal strategy. What does she suggest? This document consists of slides I created giving an account of her paper. She had not won the Nobel when she gave this talk but it was conferred on her later.

The Effects Of Network Structure And Social Information On Contribution Performance On Crowdfunding Platforms: An Experimental Investigation, Yanni Hu

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

The long-term potentiality of online communities and activities depends critically on contribution behaviors of online individuals. In this dissertation, this study deepen and extend our understanding of contribution behavior by applying contributions to crowdfunding platforms, whereas social networks, social information, and social influence affect people’s contribution decisions, which in turn influences their contribution performances. Specifically, this study looked into how contribution behavior at crowdfunding platforms is shaped at a fundamental level of social interactions initiated by social and information technologies on contribution performance, using online and natural experiments as study methodologies.

Examining the effects brought by online social interactions on …

The Euro And Bumps In The Road: Historical Patterns Of Nonresident Holdings In Eurozone Bonds, 1980–2018, Michael H. Scarlatos

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

A developed bond market which attracts nonresident investors both enables and reflects a host currency’s transition from domestic to international status. My analysis of historical private nonresident holdings of Eurozone portfolio debt securities spanning the euro’s 1999 creation and its subsequent 2008 crisis reveals diverging patterns.

This analysis, complemented by coefficient stability tests, discovers that the conversion of national currencies to the euro was reflected by a pickup in nonresident holdings of bonds issued by countries adopting the euro, especially those of the periphery (Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain) relative to the core (Germany, Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, and the …

Essays On Inequality, Growth, And Economic Policy, Philipp E. Erfurth

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters that study inequality and regional economics in a historical and development context.

The first chapter examines regional inequality among Habsburg regions from the 19th century to today’s EU by using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software to recreate historical regions in present-day projections. The findings suggests that regional disparities are markedly higher today than in the 19th century, despite rapid convergence in the past two decades. The study thus provides evidence of retrospective determinism in the study of the Habsburg economy and suggests that, although regional EU policy has been successful over the past two …

Essays On Federalism And Local Finance In China, Jiakai Zhang

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters that cover topics on federalism and local finance in China.

Chapter 1 - Economic Growth, Fiscal Inequality and Fiscal Decentralization: Evidence from China.

This paper investigates the impact of inequality in the geographic distribution of fiscal resources on regional economic growth under fiscal decentralization policy in the context of China's experience, using panel data for 28 provinces over the period 1987–2010. In the recent past, the structure of decentralized government in China has undergone two significant fiscal reforms: the ``Fiscal Responsibility System" (FRS) in 1987-1993, and the ``Tax Sharing System" (TSS) in 1994. I …

Expulsive Greening: A Cross-Sectional Analysis Of Green Gentrification In The Resilience Paradigm, Brooklyn 2010–2020, Rose Jimenez

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Background: This project analyzes the spatial coincidence between gentrification typologies and urban greening in Brooklyn, New York from 2010 to 2020. Assets formed under the NYC Green Infrastructure Program were chosen as a proxy for urban greening to represent the spatial practice specifically within the 21st-century climate change resilience paradigm of development. Methods: First, five indexes measuring variations of economic and demographic conditions related to gentrification were applied to Brooklyn for comparative analysis: NOAA’s Social Vulnerability Indicators of Gentrification Pressure, The NYC Heat Vulnerability Index, The Small Area Index of Gentrification, Typologies of Gentrification and Displacement, and The Housing Risk …

Essays On Spillover Effects Across U.S And China, Zhuo Xi

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter1: With the rapid development and continuous advancement of economic globalization, the links between countries around the world have become increasingly tight. Among them, the United States, as the world's largest economy, its monetary policy is bound to cause significant spillover effects on other economies around the world. By constructing a Threshold SVAR model with monthly data from 1996 to 2019, this paper empirically investigates the spillover effects of US monetary policy on China's economy during different U.S policy regimes. The transmission mechanism of such effects has been tested through different channels including policy channel, trade channel, asset value channel …

Essays On Social Mobility And Distribution, Luis A. Monroy Gómez Franco

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters on the relationship between immutable characteristics of a person (also known as circumstances) and the intergenerational social mobility experienced by them, as well as their human capital accumulation. It pays particular attention to the role played by the economic resources of the household of origin in producing differences in the economic outcomes across persons.

In the first chapter, I show that the decomposition of intergenerational persistence indicators into their structural and positional components offers a clearer understanding of the determinants of heterogeneity in subnational mobility rates. The crucial element for the separate analysis of …

Essays On Housing And Macroeconomics, Pablo Lara Hinojos

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter 1: House Prices and Aggregate Markups: A VAR Approach

Based on the empirical results of Stroebel and Vavra (2019), who find that a local increase in house prices translates into higher local retail markups and prices, I investigate whether this relationship holds at the aggregate level. I first construct a quarterly aggregate markup series and find that house prices and aggregate markups have a positive relationship. This result emerges from a Vector Autoregression (VAR) system that includes the nominal interest rate, the inflation rate, aggregate house prices, aggregate markups, and real output. I use the Impulse Response Functions (IRFs) …

Essays In Asset Pricing, Muhammed Yonac

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three essays in asset pricing with the common theme of return predictability.

Chapter 1: This chapter introduces the motivation, results, and structure of the dissertation.

Chapter 2: I examine the relation between the social ties between firms' headquarters locations and co-movements between their fundamentals and stock returns. The evidence indicates that firms in the same industry with socially connected locations exhibit co-movement in fundamentals and stock returns that exceed those without socially connected locations. However, the stock returns reflect the location information with a lag. To exploit this lagged relationship, we form portfolios that buy (sell) …

Macroeconomic Adjustments Of Global Convergence: Real Exchange Rate Response Of Asia-Pacific Growth, Kumarappan Annamalai

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters.

Chapter 1 : PURCHASING POWER PARITY, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, PRICE LEVEL INDEX and HARROD-BALASSA-SAMUELSON EFFECT: LITERATURE SURVEY

In the light of the concepts explained in the introduction section, this chapter explores the seminal papers on the Purchasing Power Parity principle, the Real Exchange rate, and the Price Level Index, showing the evolution of PPP and the methodologies adopted in exploring the characteristics of PPP and the real exchange rates. Various characteristics might be stationarity or non-stationarity of the real exchange rates (RER), variance, correlation, half-life measures, linearity versus non-linearity, etc. Various methodologies adopted were …

Essays On Machine Learning Methods In Economics, Mani Bayani

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters on machine learning modeling in economics. Chapter 1 - Robust PCA Synthetic Control: In this chapter, I propose an algorithm for comparative studies called robust PCA synthetic control. My algorithm builds on the synthetic control model of Abadie et al., 2015 and the robust synthetic control model of Amjad et al., 2018. I apply all three methods (robust PCA synthetic control, synthetic control, and robust synthetic control) to answer the hypothetical question, what would have been the per capita GDP of West Germany if it had not reunified with East Germany in 1990? I …

Essays On Impacts Of Women Empowerment On The Health Outcomes Of Children, Sagnik Das

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter 1: Taking cognizance of the lack of representation of women in politics, the Indian government in 1993, enacted the 73rd constitutional amendment which led to a sudden increase in the representation of women in the local governments. Exploiting the exogenous variation in the timing of implementation of the 73rd amendment across the states, I study the spillover effects of this mandated empowerment of women on the health outcomes of children by using nationally representative survey data and employing a difference-in-difference estimation strategy. In this study, I find evidence of a positive impact of mandated women empowerment on the survival …

Essays On Futures Market And Machine Learning, Jonathan J. Lopez Camara

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter 1 - Big Data And Machine Learning To Predict Overnight Interest Rates. This paper is a brief introduction to the two main pieces I have elaborated as part of the dissertation. Here, I explain the reasons why I have done my research about predicting the overnight interest rates for Mexico and the United States using big data and machine learning models. I explain the connection between the two research papers, I define some basic concepts such as future contracts and the overnight funding rate for Mexico. There is a summary about the data I use, and the machine learning …

Universal Basic Income And The Alaska Permanent Fund: Impact On Labor Outcomes And Skill Composition, Michele Cafasso

Theses and Dissertations

To analyze the effects of universal basic income on labor supply and human capital, I estimate the effects of Alaska’s Permanent Fund on employment, hours worked, and skills using data from the Current Population Survey and O*NET. My method combines synthetic control and difference-in-differences regressions.

How Federal Pollution Discharge Permits Affect U.S. Water Quality: A Study On Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations, Cloe C. Mueller

Theses and Dissertations

This paper uses difference-in-difference regression models to examine how state-level pollution discharge permits on concentrated animal feeding operations affect U.S. water quality. I ultimately deem the permitting to be ineffective at improving water quality, calling attention to the need to re-evaluate the ``socially optimal level of pollution."

How Groupy Is A Group?, Rohit J. Parikh

Publications and Research

Various Cooperating Groups

Why and how do they cooperate

Bees

Chinese troops

BLM demonstrators

The reasons are different in the three cases.

1) Bees cooperate because they are all sisters who have thesame DNA. From a purely evolutionary point of view the survival of one is the survival of all.

2) Chinese troops cooperate because they are obeying a single commander.

3) Black lives people cooperate because they have a single goal, and they have communicated to be together at one time and place.

The purpose of this work is to provide a definition of the "amount" of groupiness, revealed …

Modelling And Forecasting Methods In Financial Economics, Shuo Gao

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters.

Chapter 1: Behavioral heterogeneity among investors has been shown to explain the volatile nature of stock markets. In this chapter, I investigate the different behaviors of investors by proposing a heterogeneous agent model based on Chiarella et al. (2012) which involves fundamentalists, chartists, and noise traders with two-state hidden-Markov regime switching expectations. By applying the S&P 500 and CPI data from January 1990 to December 2020, the model shows strong evidence of behavioral heterogeneity among different groups of traders. After an in-sample backtesting and out-of-sample forecasting which further evaluate the capability of the model, …

Essays On Intergenerational Mobility In Education, Ercio A. Munoz Saavedra

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters that investigate intergenerational mobility in education in Chile, and Latin America and the Caribbean.

Chapter 1: In this chapter, I estimate intergenerational mobility (IGM) in education using data from 91 censuses that span 24 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) over half a century. I measure upward mobility as the likelihood of obtaining at least a primary education for individuals whose parents did not finish primary school, whereas downward mobility as the likelihood of failing to complete primary education for individuals whose parents completed at least primary school. In addition, I …

Episode Based Payment Models And The Hospital Safety-Net: An Evaluation Of The Center For Medicare And Medicaid Services’ Comprehensive Joint Replacement Bundled Payment Program, John A. Gravina

Dissertations and Theses

Episode Based Payment Models and the Hospital Safety-net: An Evaluation of the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services’ Comprehensive Joint Replacement Bundled Payment Program

By John Anthony Gravina

Advisor: Alexis Pozen, Ph.D.

Introduction: Payments for Healthcare services are increasingly being tied to clinical quality, patient experience, health outcomes, and efficiency through value-based payment arrangements (VBP). VBP presents a potential opportunity to reduce healthcare expenditures by requiring providers to take on financial risk associated with the cost and quality of care, therefore aligning payment incentives with the goals of providing higher quality and efficient care. As of 2020, 80 percent of …

Perceptions Of Economic Vulnerability And Public Opinion In The United States: A Theoretical, Historical, And Quantitative Approach, Cody R. Melcher

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation combines three related essays that analyze the effect of the perception of economic vulnerability on the social and political attitudes of Americans. Through a heterodox reading of W.E.B. Du Bois’s intellectual work and political career in the latter half of his life, the first essay develops the theoretical thrust of the dissertation. It is argued that Du Bois primarily grounds white supremacy in an elementary feature of capitalism: the fact that survival under capitalism presumes the successful engagement, either directly or indirectly, with the labor market. Due to the historical legacy of slavery, however, labor market competition in …

Essays In Macroeconomic Policy, Meng-Ting Chen

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters that cover topics on macroeconomic policies.

Chapter 1 - Markups, Labor Share, and Wage Dispersion.

Increasing market power has an impact on labor market behavior. This paper argues that the decline in the aggregate wage after 1980 comes from both increasing aggregate product markup and decreasing aggregate labor markdown. Most of the decline is driven by the sharp decline in lower wage percentiles, which also contributes to the increasing wage dispersion. Further, both firms’ monopoly and monopsony power play important roles in explaining the decline in the aggregate labor share. I build a heterogeneous …