Economics Commons^™

Markov Chains In Predictive Models Of Currency Crises - With Applications To Southeast Asia, Roberto S. Mariano, Abdul G. Abiad, Gultekin Bulent, Tayyeb Shabbir, Augustine H. H. Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

The decade of the 1990s was marked by an unusual number of financial and economic crises such as the attack on the European Monetary System in 1992-93, the Mexican peso crisis in 1994-95, the Asian crisis in 1997, the Russian default in 1998 and its spillover to Latin America. The Turkish currency and banking crisis in 2001 and the recent difficulties in Argentina indicate that financial crises are still part of the current economic events. In the wake of such developments, there has been a resurgence of interest in early warning systems that can anticipate the likely occurrence of such …

The Search For Stock Market Bubbles: An Examination Of The Nyse Index, Andrew J. Economopoulos, Avinash G. Shetty

Business and Economics Faculty Publications

Many have put forth reasons why the stock market has climbed to new and unprecedented heights. Two reasons are examined: (1) investors are expecting prices to increase and are bidding up price irrationally; (2) investors have moved to a long-term strategy and are requiring a lower risk premium. For the latter reason, the rise in stock prices is due to a change in the fundamentals, and for the former reason the rise represents the classical bubble. The evidence indicates that risk preferences have changed while price momentum does not appear during bubble periods.

Economic Crisis In South East Asia : A Study Of Implications For Global Economy By Surendra S Yadav And P K Jain, Hindustan Publishing Corporation, Delhi, 2000., Pradeep Banerjee

IIMB Management Review

No abstract provided.

Less Developed Country Business Cycles, Hing-Man Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

Less developed countries (LDCs) have experienced considerable business cycles in recent decades. This coincides with significant increases in their external debt to GDP ratios. Recent theoretical credit cycles literature suggests that indebtedness, and the resulting liquidity constraints, could explain LDC business cycles. This paper builds a macroeconomic model to trace the LDC income paths. In this model indebtedness and liquidity constraints reduce aggregate investment. We use the World Data (1995) to calibrate for the convergence parameter. It is found that LDC cycles are convergent and non-oscillatory, and indebtedness delays the return to long-term steady state income.

Networked Growth, Hing-Man Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper searches for a new growth engine in the new Info-Tech economy. IT-network effects are incorporated into Romer’s (1990) framework. Network effects support long-term steady state growth in per capita variables even without innovation, and growth rate increases with network externalities. Networked growth is sub-optimal, so should we break up an IT monopoly? To answer this we compare monopoly, Cournot and Bertrand set-ups. Cournot always ranks last socially, but Bertrand can be superior to monopoly if network effects are strong. When network interacts with Romer’s endogenous innovation, growth rate increases, probably by up to a percentage point per year.

Endogenous Growth And The Manufacturing Revolution, Hing-Man Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

Manufacturing is undergoing a revolution. Teamwork, job-rotation, multitasking are superseding the Taylorist mode of organization. The skilled workforce, armed with automated machines, is gradually substituting and replacing the unskilled. At the same time the U.S. economy is experiencing record breaking growth. Is faster growth a consequence of this manufacturing revolution? We study this by inserting dynamic career choice into endogenous growth by human capital accumulation. The answer is affirmative: The gradual substitution of the unskilled by the skilled boosts the long-term growth trend. The model also explains worsening wage inequality between as well as within the skilled groups.

Turning Points In Business Cycles, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

Ayres, L. P. (1939). Turning points in business cycles [Excerpt; photocopy with handwritten notes by Anwar Shaikh, PhD]. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.

A History Of Money (Glyn Davies), Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Davies, G. (2002). A history of money: from ancient times to the present day (Monograph excerpts). University of Wales Press. Julian Hodge Bank Limited.
• Sargent, T. J., & Velde, F. R. (1999). The big problem of small change. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, The Ohio State University Press.
• Davies, R., & Davies, G. (1999). A comparative chronology of money: monetary history from ancient times to the present day (Digital timeline printouts). University of Wales Press.
• Shaikh, A. (2002). Money, credit, and banking lecture folder notes (Handwritten folder notes). Anwar Shaikh Papers. Collection of research …

Capacity Utilization, Cointegratoin, Kalman Filter, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Tsaliki, P., & Tsoulfidis, L. (1999). Capacity utilization in Greek manufacturing. [Journal], volume, [page range]. [Publisher].

• Shaikh, A. (2002, August 11). Path of capacity under roughly steady growth and technical change [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (2002, July 17). Capacity utilization, cointegration, and the Kalman filter [Unpublished manuscript].

• Godley, W., & Cripps, F. (1983). Macroeconomics. Fontana.

• Kurz, H. D. (1986). “Normal” positions and capital utilisation. Political Economy, volume, [page range]. [Publisher].

• Shaikh, A. (1983, September 28). Capacity utilization: Notes on Gordon C. Winston [Handwritten notes]. …

The New Basel Capital Accord: Making It Effective With Stronger Market Discipline, Harald Benink, Clas Wihlborg

Business Faculty Articles and Research

In January 2001 the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision proposed a new capital adequacy framework to respond to deficiencies in the 1988 Capital Accord on credit risk. The main elements or ‘pillars’ of the proposal are capital requirements based on the internal risk-ratings of individual banks, expanded and active supervision, and information disclosure requirements to enhance market discipline. We discuss the incentive effects of the proposed regulation. In particular, we argue that it provides incentives for banks to develop new ways to evade the intended consequences of the proposed regulation. Supervision alone cannot prevent banks from ‘gaming and manipulation’ of …

History Of Money, Davies, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Davies, G. (2002). A history of money: from ancient times to the present day folder notes (Handwritten folder notes). Anwar Shaikh Papers. Collection of reading notes on monetary history.
• Davies, G. (2002). A history of money: from ancient times to the present day (Monograph excerpts). University of Wales Press. Julian Hodge Bank Limited.

Basic Models Of Demand And Growth, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (2002, November 18). Basic models of demand and growth [Unpublished manuscript].

• Shaikh, A. (2001, June 18). What determines the level of output in various theoretical approaches (classical vs. demand-driven)? [Unpublished manuscript].

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Kaldor growth model (Gandolfo) [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (2001, June 13). How can data be used to address the difference between K/K and Harrod? What is the essential theoretical difference? [Handwritten notes]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Stability of private expenditure rate [Handwritten notes on Roosevelt Hotel stationery]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). …

Inflation, Argentine, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. May 30, 2002. Inflation dynamics and the thruput ratio [Unpublished manuscript]. Department of Economics, New School for Social Research.
• Shaikh, A. May 30, 2002. Testing inflation theory on US data [Unpublished manuscript]. Department of Economics, New School for Social Research.
• Shaikh, A. May 28, 2002. Testing our inflation theory for Argentina [Unpublished manuscript]. Department of Economics, New School for Social Research.
• Martin. May 27, 2002. First comments on inflation dynamics – Argentina's case [Unpublished manuscript]. Department of Economics, New School for Social Research.

Inflation, Martin Abeles, Argentine, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Abeles, M. (2001). The political economy of national accounts: A reassessment of Argentina's domestic product [Unpublished manuscript]. Graduate Faculty of Political and Social Science, New School University.
• Joyce, P. (2002, January 14). Re: Re. progress and clarification [Personal correspondence]. Central Statistics Office, Dublin / Council of the City of New York.
• Abeles, M. (2001). A classical index of inflationary pressure: An empirical assessment for the Argentine case [Unpublished manuscript]. Graduate Faculty of Political and Social Science, New School University.
• Abeles, M. (2001). Data documentation for Argentine inflation file, Eviews [Technical documentation]. Graduate Faculty of Political and Social …

Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Pasaran Wang Di Malaysia Serta Kesannya Ke Atas Dasar Kewangan, Azlina Abd. Aziz

Student Works (2000-2009)

Penyelidikan ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji foktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi pa.saran wang di Malaysia, khususnya bagi permintaan dan penawaran wang serta kesannya ke atas pelaksanaan dasar kewangan di Malaysia. Agregat kewangan M1, M2 clan M3 sebagai pembolehubah bergantung bagi permintaan dan penawaran wang. Bagi melihat apakah faktor yang mempengaruhi permintaan wang, sebanyak lima pembolehubah bebas digunakan yang terdiri daripada pendapatan benar, kadar diskaun purata Bil Perbendaharaan 3 bulan, kadar inflasi, hasil Bil Perbendaharaan Amerika Syarikat 3 bulan dan jangkaan kadar depresiasi. Bagi pen.awaran wang, antara petunjuk yang digunakan sebagai pembolehubah bebas terdiri daripada pendapatan benar, kadar bunga deposit bermasa 6 bulan di …

Kajian Mengenai Literasi Komputer Di Kalangan Pelajar Ijazah Sarjana Muda Ekonomi Universiti Malaya, Norinah Mohd Ali

Student Works (2000-2009)

Literasi komputer menjadi agenda penting dalam kehidupan seharian pada 2lUllan era teknologi maklumat. Ia menjadi salah satu unsur pemangkin kepada kemajuan negara. Malahan di dalam Rancangan Malaysia ke-7 dan Rancangan Malaysia ke-8, kerajaan telah menyatakan dasar-dasarnya terhadap Teknologi Maklumat (IT). Kajian ini bertujuan untuk mengukur tahap literasi komputer pelajar ijaz.ah Sarjana Muda Ekonomi di Fakulti Ekonomi dan Pentadbiran Universiti Malaya. lajuga bertujuan untuk mengenal pasti sama ada terdapat hubungan di antara tingkat pendapatan ibubapa dengan tahap literasi komputer pelajar dan juga banyak masa menggunakan komputer seminggu dengan literasi komputer. Data dalam kajian ini diperolehi melalui soal selidik yang telah diedarkan …

It And Productivity In Malaysia : Firm-Level Evidence, Nor Hafizah Mohd Arop

Student Works (2000-2009)

The research paper would attempt to measure the emerging digital economy, in terms of analysing the impact of information technology on the productivity of organisations. Specifically, it would look into the aspect of productivity measurement. albeit indirect measures, whether the investment in IT yields the desired effect on productivity performance. Several case studies that have been conducted, related to the subject matter, are examined to look at the success stories of IT implementations. The paper would also analyse the phenomenon of "productivity paradox", the missing linkage between IT investment productivity performance. Finally, the significance of IT, as a source of …

Granger-Causality Between Monetary Aggregates And Sectoral Production In Malaysia, Kay Choy Wan

Student Works (2000-2009)

The main purpose of this study is to empirically assess the distributional impact of financial variables using Malaysian quarterly data. The rationale for pursuing this objective is to identify the possible transmission channels of the financial variables with respect to the sectoral production and its underlying causal. The study employing the methodology of Azali and Habibullah (2000) in using the MWALD test for testing Granger non-causality (Toda Yamamoto, 199 5) was constructed using Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR). The Augmented Dickey­Fuller (ADF) and Phillip-Perron (PP) unit root test procedures Johansen and Juselius (1990) cointegration test and the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) …

An Econometric Analysis Of The Relationship Between Public Expenditure And National Income In Malaysia, Yin Wai Tung

Student Works (2000-2009)

The purpose of this study is to analyse public expenditure growth in Malaysia for the period of 1970-2000. This paper investigates the existence of a long-run relationship between national income and various categories of public expenditure as proposed by Wagner's Law. In Wagner's framework, public expenditure can be treated as an endogenous factor that suggests that public expenditure grows as a result of growth in national income. Causality is expected to run from national income to public expenditure. This contradicts the famous Keynesian doctrine that treats public expenditure as an exogenous factor. As opposed to Wagner's Law, it implies that …

Estimation Of The Equilibrium Exchange Rate In Malaysia, Ying Foong Yoong

Student Works (2000-2009)

In this study, we examine the long-nm relationships of the exchange rate of ringgit Malaysia through three difference methods. Firstly, we estimate the ringgit Malaysia with a simple Big Mac index. The results show that the ringgit Malaysia is undervalued since 1993. Secondly, we used the co-integrating techniques to examine the long-run relationship of the exchange rate of ringgit Malaysia against United States dollar vis-a-vis other Asian currencies, namely Japanese yen and Singapore dollar against United States dollar. The short-term impact of these variables are also estimated by an error-correction model. Our results show that the Purchasing Power Parity does …

The Impact Of The 1997 Economic Crisis On The Labour Market In Malaysia, Janitha Nadarajah

Student Works (2000-2009)

Malaysia's rapid economic growth since 1988 was sustained through 1995, between the year's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth was generally above 8% per annum. Malaysia's impressive decade - long growth came to an abrupt halt during the Asian economic crisis, which occurred in July 1997. The crisis had caused massive capital movements and all of Southeast Asia countries had been severely affected. This research paper analyzes the impact of the economic crisis on the labour market in Malaysia. The analysis focuses on employment growth, retrenchment and job opportunities. The full impact of the crisis was clear in 1998 when …

"Would Bond Market Be A More Viable Investment Alternative To The Stock Market?", Hock Poon Chew

Student Works (2000-2009)

"Traditionally, investors have viewed bonds as boring investments that do not give good returns and that burdens portfolios," says Dale Bryant, a portfolio manager. "They couldn't be more misled. Sometimes bonds can do better than equities. Adding bonds can reduce portfolio volatility." Bryant's statement forms the crux of this research project. This paper investigates the co-movement of stocks and bonds on a monthly basis from April 1996 to May 2001. Average returns and standard deviations for the bond and stock market are computed and a comparison is performed to establish which market provides a better return and is less volatile. …

Determinants Of Inflows Of Foreign Direct Investment In Selected Southeast Asian Countries, Rajapaksa Pathirannahelage Rathanasiri Rajapaksa

Student Works (2000-2009)

Southeast Asian countries experienced high growth of inflows of foreign direct investments in the past three decades. This study attempts to find the key factors that determine these inflows. In addition to that, the importance of such factors was investigated. Based on such findings, the future trend of FDI inflows to this region was also examined by forecasting. In many studies on this subject, the significance of various factors determinants of FDI was evaluated using econometric models. Results of such studies are often varied. Differences depend on the characteristics of the economies and the time examined. Using FDI inflows of …

The Implications Of The Financial Crisis For Malaysian Economy, Amir Raslan Abu Bakar

Student Works (2000-2009)

Malaysia had been blessed by rapid economic growth for the past 10 years prior to 1997. In fact, the success of the Malaysian economy had caught the eyes of developed and developing countries to study how Malaysia managed to achieve such growth. However, when the currency speculators attacked the Thai bath in July, 1997, things started to change. That was the beginning point to the 'nightmare' that the Malaysian economy was about to suffer. Later, more and more firms had to cease operations due to financial difficulties. The unemployment rate and interest rate were increasing. The Malaysian government came up …

A Monetary Analysis Of The Indonesian Economy, Elisabet Siahaan

Student Works (2000-2009)

This study is about monetary economic in Indonesia. There are three main topics on this study. First topic is about development of monetary economic in Indonesia. Second topic is about monetary policy in Indonesia. The third topic is about money supply in Indonesia. The period of this study is 1980-1999. The first topic provides a brief overview of the Indonesian monetary development, covers the three distinct periods of monetary experiences and financial regimes. The main period are pre-reform (pre-1983 ), post-reform (post 1983) and financial crisis(1997-1999). Second topic is about monetary policy in Indonesia. Indonesia's mam economic concern is development. …

Krisis Minsky Dan Kerapuhan Sistem Kewangan Di Indonesia, Irfan Sungkar

Student Works (2000-2009)

Berbagai keterangan dan jawapan telah diberikan oleh para pakar ekonomi dalam menjelaskan mengapa krisis kewangan boleh berlaku, termasuk dalam kes yang terjadi di Indonesia. Akan tetapi, secara amnya jawapan yang diberikan tersebut masih belum meyakinkan dan boleh dipertikaikan. Kertas kerja ini membahas apakah hipotesa dan hujah Minsky berkenaan dengan ketak-stabilan kewangan boleh diterapkan dalam memberikan penjelasan yang menyeluruh mengenai terjadinya krisis kewangan di Indonesia. Hujah Minsky berkenaan dengan terdapatnya suatu anjakan yang secara endogenous menyebabkan sistem kewangan menjadi tak stabil akan dikaji kesesuruannya di Indonesia. Hasil analisa dan dapatan kajian adalah membuktikan bahawa sememangnya telah terjadi suatu anjakan menuju ketak­stabilan …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 2001, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

The Report, as in the past, reviews the operations of the Central Bank of Nigeria in its efforts at discharging its mandate for the fiscal year 2001. The major objectives of monetary policy for 2001 were outlined in the Bank's Monetary Policy Circular No. 35, which aimed to maintain internal and external balance, contribute to sustainable output growth and poverty reduction, and focus on the banking system, rate, rate regime, viability, and stability. Key policy targets included growth in broad money, narrow money, aggregate bank credit, growth in bank credit to the government, private sector, inflation rate, and GDP growth. …

Factor Substitution And Endogenous Growth, Hing-Man Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

We argue that the degree of substitutability between skilled and unskilled workers in production increases long-term income growth rate. Growth rate reaches its maximum when such factors are perfect substitutes, but falls to zero when they are perfect complements. This model brings together the diverging relative wage and the human-capital-growth literature. Easier substitution absorbs more workers into the skilled profession, and their training fuels human capital accumulation and growth. Our result implies, among other things, that growth is positively related to between-and within-group inequality.

The American Militia And The Origin Of Conscription: A Reassessment, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

How Do Forecasts Respond To Changes In Monetary Policy?, Laurence Ball, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

Just as changes in atmospheric conditions affect weather forecasts, changes in monetary policy affect economic forecasts. When monetary policy shifts, forecasters change their predictions about growth and inflation. But does the economy change to the same extent that forecasts do? In this article, Laurence Ball and Dean Croushore examine forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to determine if forecasts and the economy respond in tandem or if there are significant differences.