Economics Commons^™

Financial Regulatory Reform And Private Funds, Anita Krug

All Faculty Scholarship

This white paper comments on the Obama administration's June 2009 proposal for the regulation of hedge fund investment advisers.

Are Credit Unions In Ecuador Achieving Economies Of Scale?, Nick A. Marchio

Economics Honors Projects

This study tests the assertion that membership growth in credit unions is constrained by their unique structural features, such as their non-profit mission and member-based ownership. Although these features enhance inclusiveness, existing theory suggest that they work against efficiency when membership grows too diffuse. To address this issue, this study uses a model that takes into account existing theory on constrained-optimization in credit unions and theory on the adverse effects of diffuse ownership. Using data on 36 public credit unions in Ecuador, the empirical analysis finds evidence that credit unions can achieve economies of scale despite their problematic structural features. …

Asian Currency Baskets: An Answer In Search Of A Question?, Charles Adams, Hwee Kwan Chow

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper considers how a regional currency basket and the associated divergence indicators could be used in official surveillance. Recently, proponents of Asian currency baskets have referred to the role the ECU played in constructing exchange rate divergence indicators in Europe as evidence of the intrinsic usefulness of currency baskets for exchange rate monitoring. We show in this paper a number of problems with the use of regional currency-basket based divergence indicators. First, at a technical level, such indicators involve tracking regional exchange rates against a moving currency basket and can obscure underlying movements in bilateral exchange rates. Second, currency …

Why Economic Performance Has Differed Between Brazil And China? A Comparative Analysis Of Brazilian And Chinese Macroeconomic Policy, Fernando Ferrari-Filho, Anthony Petros Spanakos

Department of Political Science and Law Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

This paper addresses a specific question: why has China grown so rapidly and Brazil not? To answer this question, it (i) establishes the basis for comparison between China and Brazil by contextualizing these countries within the BRICs concept, and (ii) presents a comparative analysis of Brazilian and Chinese reforms focusing only on the issue of macroeconomic policy, especially the monetary and exchange rate regimes, and its effect on growth.

South Burlington, Vt: Mixed-Use Comes To O’Dell Parkway, Ryan Neale, Brett Richardson, Richard Barringer

Planning

The proposed redevelopment of an underutilized property along major travel routes in South Burlington presents possibilities for infill development. The City of South Burlington, the developer, neighbors, and a variety of public and nonprofit financial partners work together to create a mixed-use residential/commercial development to meet a variety of housing and community needs. The case study describes the obstacles overcome to make redevelopment possible through zoning and regulatory changes, negotiation with local residents over traffic and other concerns, support from state and local housing advocates, and political leadership; as well as the development’s application of smart growth principles.

South Burlington Vt: New Urbanist South Village, Jack Kartez, Richard Barringer

Planning

The 220 acre master plan for South Village, the largest project in the City of South Burlington’s history, encompasses multiple housing types and innovative provisions for affordable housing. It integrates housing with open space and natural resource conservation, including a major Community Supported Agriculture project developed by a nonprofit partner, the Intervale Foundation. While not a mixed-use project (that is, commercial as well as residential development), South Village nonetheless represents a qualitative change in approach for South Burlington by incorporating large-scale open space preservation as part of development and multiple housing-types in one project. The case study recounts events leading …

Ethics, Evidence And International Debt, Julie A. Nelson

Economics Faculty Publication Series

The assumption that contracts are largely impersonal, rational, voluntary agreements drawn up between self-interested individual agents is a convenient fiction, necessary for analysis using conventional economic methods. Papers prepared for a recent conference on ethics and international debt were shaped by just such an assumption. The adequacy of this approach is, however, challenged by evidence about who is affected by international debt, how contracts are actually made and followed, the behavior of actors in financial markets, and the motivations of scholars themselves. This essay uses insights from feminist and relational scholarship from several disciplines to analyze the reasons for this …

Determinants Of Demand Pressure In Nigeria's Foreign Exchange Market: An Empirical Analysis, A. Englama,, H. T. Sanni, O.O. Duke, T.S. Ogunleye, F.U. Isma'il

Economic and Financial Review

This study investigates factors that influenced the demand pressure in the foreign exchange market prior to the recent reforms. We examined the theoretical issues and empirically measured the determinants of the demand pressure in Nigeria’s foreign exchange market. We adopted a simple ordinary least square (OLS) to estimate the impact of exogenous variable on the dependable variable. We found from the empirical results that brand pressure was prevalent during the past period. From the literature, demand pressure m s attributed to a number of factors which include, among others, the high incidence of currency substitution arising from speculative trading, liquidity …

Determination Of Interest Rate Saharan African Countries: A Analysis., A. O. Folawewo, E. A. Udeaja

Economic and Financial Review

A major indicator of banking sector efficiency is interest rate spreads (IRS), which have been found to be very high in African countries. This paper analysed the determinants of interest rate spreads in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) from a macro perspective, that is, using aggregate banking sector data, and focusing macroeconomic and market determinants. The study used ex-ante measure of spreads, that is, differences between interest rates on lending and deposit. Using annual data covering 33 countries, the result to obtained from the paper suggested that different market and macroeconomic policy variables played significant role in explaining variation in IRS in …

An Empirical Analysis Of Stock Market Integration: Comparison Study Of Singapore And Malaysia, Zheng Yi, Swee Liang Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

Using a GARCH (1,1) model, this paper compares the extent to which financial sector liberalization in Singapore and Malaysia each has led to integration of its domestic equity market with external markets. The results show that the level of integration of the domestic markets with the external markets is higher when MSCI regional and global data are used, as compared to when individual country data are used to proxy regional and global markets. Inferences are made about the preferred pace of liberalization in Singapore, as well as, the impact of the Asian financial crisis and capital control measures imposed in …

Discrete Choice Modeling With Nonstationary Panels Applied To Exchange Rate Regime Choice, Sainan Jin

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops a regression limit theory for discrete choice nonstationary panels with large cross section (N) and time series (T) dimensions. Some results emerging from this theory are directly applicable in the wider context of M-estimation. This includes an extension of work by Wooldridge [Wooldridge, J.M., 1994. Estimation and Inference for Dependent Processes. In: Engle, R.F., McFadden, D.L. (Eds.). Handbook of Econometrics, vol. 4, North-Holland, Amsterdam] on the limit theory of local extremum estimators to multi-indexed processes in nonlinear nonstationary panel data models. It is shown that the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator is consistent without an incidental parameters problem …

What Do Consumers Really Pay On Their Checking And Credit Card Accounts? Explicit, Implicit, And Avoidable Costs, Victor Stango, Jonathan Zinman

Dartmouth Scholarship

No abstract provided.

Financial Instability, Reserves, And Central Bank Swap Lines In The Panic Of 2008, Maurice Obstfeld, Jay C. Shambaugh, Alan M. Taylor

Dartmouth Scholarship

No abstract provided.

Hype My Stock: Do Firms Really Want Biased Research?, Roger Loh

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Analyst research is alleged to be biased because of conflicts of interest when analysts’ employers underwrite securities for the firms covered. I posit that affiliated analyst optimism should be the strongest for offering firms with a desire to over-inflate stock prices. I hypothesize that a firm’s corporate governance and its CEO incentives are related to the affiliation bias. Using stock recommendations data, I find evidence that the affiliation bias is indeed more pervasive for firms with high CEO wealth sensitivity to stock price (i.e., high CEO delta). The larger affiliation bias for high delta firms remains even after the introduction …

Using High-Frequency Transaction Data To Estimate The Probability Of Informed Trading, Anthony S. Tay, Christopher Ting, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitchell Warachka

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper applies the asymmetric autoregressive conditional duration (AACD) model of Bauwens and Giot (2003) to estimate the probability of informed trading (PIN) using irregularly spaced transaction data. We model trade direction (buy versus sell orders) and the duration between trades jointly. Unlike the Easley, Hvidkjaer, and O'Hara (2002) approach, which uses the aggregate numbers of daily buy and sell orders to estimate PIN, our methodology allows for interactions between consecutive buy-sell orders and accounts for the duration between trades and the volume of trade. We extend the Easley–Hvidkjaer–O'Hara framework by allowing the probabilities of good news and bad news …

Two Essays On Earnings Quality And Corporate Decisions, Qian Sun

Theses and Dissertations in Business Administration

This dissertation investigates how earnings quality as an information risk may facilitate our understanding of the choice of payment method in mergers and acquisitions and the value and the level of corporate cash holdings. In a world of asymmetric information and agency problem, Poor earnings quality implies the inadequate supply of relevant and reliable information for investors to monitor and discipline the behavior of firm managers to act in shareholder and stakeholder's best interest.

This study contributes to the literature in three folds. First, I add to the literature by postulating that earnings quality has a significant impact on the …

Research Choice And Finance In University Bioscience, David E. Ervin, Steven T. Buccola, Hui Yang

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

Academic bioscience's rising importance for downstream technology and growing private sector relationships have evoked substantial policy attention. We contribute to the scrutiny by asking how university bioscientists design and finance their research, with particular attention to the mutuality of research portfolio choice and funding success. The analysis requires consideration of other major influences on academic science, including scientific norms, human capital, and institutional environment. Drawing on a national survey of university bioscientists, we find that public financial support encourages more basic investigation and private support encourages more applied investigation. Yet downstream research is only moderately more excludable than upstream. Once …

Learn This Lesson: We Really Can't Have It All, Aaron W. Hughey

Counseling & Student Affairs Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

An Evaluation Of Growth Models As Predictive Tools For Estimates At Completion (Eac), Elizabeth N. Trahan

Theses and Dissertations

Efficient decision making mandates the accuracy of forecasted estimations of a contract's final value known within Earned Value Management (EVM) as the Estimates at Completion (EAC). Our research evaluates the prospect of nonlinear growth modeling as an alternative to the current predictive tools used for calculating EAC, such as the Cost Performance Index (CPI), the Schedule Cost Index (SCI), and the Composite Index methods. Our study uses the Gompertz growth curve to produce three EAC Models based on contract phase: A Production Model, a Development Model, and a Combined Model. Contract Performance Report (CPR) data are used to develop the …

The Regulatory Response To Madoff, Anita Krug

All Faculty Scholarship

This white paper evaluates investor protection mechanisms in the securities regulatory regime at the time the Madoff fraud was exposed. It considers whether the post-Madoff call for additional regulation of hedge funds and/or their managers - and/or their respective activities - was warranted.

Why Do Entreprenuers Have Higher Longevity Expectations?, Govind Hariharan, Huan Ni

Faculty Articles

The health and lifespan of entrepreneurs not only affect their private decisions such as consumption and savings, assets transfer, life insurance and labor supply, but also their business decisions. Based on a large longitudinal data set of individuals in the United States, we find in our sample of business owners that they expect to live much longer (7.47% higher) than non business owners. Moreover, these entrepreneurs have better self-rated health, better health endowment, and are more likely to exercise frequently. In future work we will further disentangle the effects of these observable characteristics from those of unobserved heterogeneity.

Advancing The Fiscal Health Of Low-Income Families: A Public And Community Health Approach, Doreen Treacy

Center for Social Policy Publications

For decades, health researchers have documented the links between individual and household income/wealth and clinical health outcomes. The research and literature consistently point to both income inequality (i.e. individual household income/wealth as compared to other households in the same state) and individual household income as predictors of diminished health and morbidity. And yet the current framework for providing financial education, disseminating asset building information, and overall responding to the financial health of individuals and households takes no cues from public health and community health best practices. Further, the documented links between financial stress and compromised physical health are compelling enough …

Productivity Effects On Mexican Manufacturing Employment, Andre V. Mollick, Rene Cabral

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We examine the effects of labor productivity and total factor productivity (TFP) on employment across 25 Mexican manufacturing industries from 1984 to 2000. Employing panel data methods, several interesting findings emerge. First, we observe a strong and positive impact of NAFTA on employment. Second, productivity exerts a procyclical, positive effect on employment but this effect becomes smaller after NAFTA. Third, partitions of our sample according to capital-labor intensity suggest that industries which are less capital-intensive were affected negatively on impact by NAFTA but that productivity impacted employment positively after NAFTA. In contrast, more capital-intensive industries display these results in reverse.

Misaligned Incentives And Mortgage Lending In Asia, Richard Green, Roberto S. Mariano, Andrey Pavlov, Susan Wachter

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper provides a conceptual basis for the price discovery potential for tradable market instruments and specifically the development of mortgage securitization in Asia and the potential dangers of such markets. Nonetheless we argue for the potential importance of securitization in Asia because of its possible role in increasing transparency of the financial sector of Asian economies. We put forth a model explaining how misaligned incentives can lead to bank generated real estate crashes and macroeconomic instability, with or without securitization under certain circumstances. We examine the banking sector’s performance in Asia compared to securitized real estate returns, to provide …

Can Liquidity Shifts Explain The Lockup Expiration Effect In Stock Returns?, Chandrasekhar Krishnamurti, Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, Tiong Yang Thong

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Several studies on the expiration of IPO lockups document a strong negative reaction even though the unlock event is devoid of any informational content. The empirical finding has remained a conundrum. In this paper, we find that changes in liquidity can account for the observed stock price reaction around lockup expiration. Specifically, firms which show improvement in liquidity subsequent to the unlock day experience positive abnormal returns in the post-expiration period, and vice versa. Another interesting conclusion that emerges from our research is that liquidity changes can predict future abnormal returns. Our results remain robust to the use of alternate …

The Hedge Fund Transparency Act Of 2009, Anita Krug

All Faculty Scholarship

This white paper provides a review and critique of a bill introduced by Senators Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) and Carl Levin (D-Mich.) in the Senate in early 2009 that, if enacted, would have imposed certain registration and disclosure requirements on hedge funds and certain other private funds.

Residential Values In Benton County: Current Outlook, Katherine A. Deck, Viktoria Riiman

Publications and Presentations

The purpose of this report is to evaluate the current underlying economic conditions in Benton County, Arkansas as they relate to the growth in the valuation of residential property values. First, the economic section provides some details of employment and population growth during the last two years. The second section discusses residential sale values and how they have changed from 2007 to 2008. Data from the Office of the Benton County Assessor and from the Arkansas REALTOR Association are used to demonstrate the change in property valuation.

Analyzing And Forecasting Business Cycles In A Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Factor Model For Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy

Research Collection School Of Economics

A dynamic factor model is applied to a large panel dataset of Singapore’s macroeconomic variables and global economic indicators with the initial objective of analyzing business cycles in a small open economy. The empirical results suggest that four common factors are present in the quarterly time series, which can broadly be interpreted as world, regional, electronics and domestic economic cycles. The estimated factor model explains well the observed fluctuations in real economic activity and price inflation, leading us to use it in forecasting Singapore’s business cycles. We find that the forecasts generated by the factors are generally more accurate than …

The Financial Crisis And Global Supply Chains, Robert Mefford

Finance

The financial crisis which erupted in 2007 has already had profound effects on the global supply chains of multinational firms and will likely permanently alter some fundamental supply relationships. This essay explores what some of the consequences have been to date and speculates about future effects. Of course, the length, scope, and severity of the financial and economic crisis will determine how significant and permanent these impacts are, and it is impossible at this point in time to forecast this accurately. But in any case there have already been major developments in global supply chains that are likely to persist …

Grant Writing Handbook For Our Lady Of Fatima Parish School, Tracy Severson

Theses, Dissertations and Capstones

This manual is an applied thesis written for Our Lady of Fatima Parish School, a small Catholic school located in Huntington, West Virginia. Its purpose is to introduce novice grant writers to the terms and processes associated with grant writing for this particular parochial school. The manual guides the fledgling writer through church and school history, ideas and strategies to develop the grant, grant writing and the post-submission process. Only examples from submitted church grants are referenced and all address Our Lady of Fatima needs and mission statement. The handbook is intended as a springboard for grant writing in the …