Economics Commons^™

Managing Capital Flows: The Case Of Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow

Research Collection School Of Economics

The resurgence of private capital inflows into Asia in recent years has raised the question of whether the region is susceptible to yet another financial crisis. While a sudden large-scale reversal of capital flows is not likely to result in a liquidity crunch or balance of payments crisis, the attendant sharp corrections in asset prices will have an adverse impact on the economy particularly through indirect channels. We present, in this study, Singapore’s experience in managing the risks posed by capital flows as well as the retention of control over exchange rates and monetary conditions. It is the overall package …

The Role And Relevance Of Domain Knowledge, Perceptions Of Planning Importance, And Risk Tolerance In Predicting Savings Intentions, Peter Croy, Paul Gerrans, Craig Speelman

Research outputs pre 2011

The need for individuals to increase retirement savings has been widely promoted, yet our understanding of the motivations of individuals to save at a higher rate remains sparse. This paper reports the findings of a survey of 2300 retirement savings fund members and their motivations to contribute more to savings and to actively manage their investment strategy. Utilising the theory of planned behavior, the study reveals respondent’s self-reported attitudes, subjective norms and perceptions of behavioral control account for a high proportion of the variance in behavioral intention. Contrary to expectations, the study finds that respondent’s risk tolerance adds little to …

Using Quantile Regression To Estimate Capital Buffer Requirements For Japanese Banks, David Allen, Robert Powell, Abhay Singh

Research outputs pre 2011

This paper investigates the impact of extreme fluctuations in bank asset values on the capital adequacy and default probabilities (PD) of Japanese Banks. We apply quantile regression analysis to the Merton structural credit model to measure how capital adequacy and PDs fluctuate over a 10 year period incorporating the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Quantile regressions allow modelling of the extreme quantiles of a distribution, as opposed to focussing on the mean, which allows measurement of capital and PDs at the most extreme points of an economic downturn. Understanding extreme risk is essential, as it is during these extreme circumstances when …

Financial Market Integration In The Greater China Region: A Multivariate Asymmetric Approach, K.Y. Ho, Zhaoyong Zhang

Research outputs pre 2011

This paper examines the volatility dynamics of the greater China stock markets (Shanghai A- and B-shares, Shenzhen A- and B-shares, Taiwan, and Hong Kong) by employing a multivariate (tetravariate) framework that incorporates the features of asymmetries, persistence, and time-varying correlations, which are typically observed in stock markets of developed economies. Our results indicate that, unlike the Shenzhen and Shanghai Ashares, Hong Kong and Taiwan markets, the B-share markets do not exhibit significant asymmetric volatility (“leverage effect”), and return volatility in the A-share market is substantially higher than the B-share market before April 1997, but this result is reversed after that. …

Caviar And The Australian Stock Markets : An Appetiser, David E. Allen, A. K. Singh

Research outputs pre 2011

Value-at-Risk (VaR) has become the universally accepted metric adopted internationally under the Basel Accords for banking industry internal control and for regulatory reporting. This has focused attention on methods of measuring, estimating and forecasting lower tail risk. One promising technique is Quantile Regression which holds the promise of efficiently calculating (VAR). To this end, Engle and Manganelli in (2004) developed their CAViaR model (Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk). In this paper we apply their model to Australian Stock Market indices and a sample of stocks, and test the efficacy of four different specifications of the model in a set of …

Credit Risk And Real Capital : An Examination Of Swiss Banking Sector Default Risk Using Cvar, Robert J. Powell, David E. Allen

Research outputs pre 2011

The global financial crisis (GFC) has placed the creditworthiness of banks under intense scrutiny. In particular, capital adequacy has been called into question. Current capital requirements make no allowance for capital erosion caused by movements in the market value of assets. This paper examines default probabilities of Swiss banks under extreme conditions using structural modeling techniques. Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) and conditional probability of default (CPD) techniques are used to measure capital erosion. Significant increase in probability of default (PD) is found during the GFC period. The market asset value based approach indicates a much higher PD than external …

Central Bank Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December, 2009, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Annual Report and Statement of Accounts for the Year Ended 31st December, 2009 revealed that the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 6.7% YoY, compared to 6.0% in the previous year. This growth was driven by the non-oil sector, with the non-oil GDP growth rate of 8.3%. Within the non-oil sector, the agricultural sub-sector grew by 6.2%, while the whole-sector and retail sectors recorded growth rates of 11.5 and 10.5 per cent, respectively. The robust output recorded during the previous three years was driven by the government's optimism, which reflected in the oil …

A Pitch For Microfinance: Using An Animation To Promote An Economic Movement, Yelena Kozlova

Art and Design

Microfinance refers to the idea of providing financial services to low-income clients. The purpose of this project was to create an animation using Adobe Flash that could be published online to inform the public about microfinance and to encourage the viewers to take part in this movement.

An Empirical Examination Of Firearm Users In Brasilia, Df, Adolfo Sachsida, Andre V. Mollick, Mario Jorge Cardoso De Mendonca

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

This paper relates individuals’ characteristics to the probability of possessing firearms: a) inside the home; b) outside the home; and c) inside and outside the home. Extending the literature on the demand for firearms whose focus is on the first trait, we collected survey data on 2,045 random individuals of Brasília, Brazil, in 2002. The multinominal logit model yields several new results. First, while we do find that a person’s educational level negatively affects the likelihood that an individual will use arms only outside his or her home, education does not affect the probability of an individual possessing a gun …

China’S Exports And The Oil Price, João Ricardo Faria, Andre V. Mollick, Pedro H. Albuquerque, Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

The increase in oil prices in recent years has occurred concurrently with a rapid expansion of Chinese exports in the world markets, despite China being an oil importing country. In this paper we develop a theoretical model that explains the positive correlation between Chinese exports and the oil price. The model shows that Chinese growth can lead to an increase in oil prices that has a stronger impact on its export competitors. This is due to the large labor force surplus of China. We then examine this hypothesis by estimating a reduced form equation for Chinese exports using Rodrik (2006)’s …

Private Fund Adviser Registration Act Hr-3818, Anita Krug

All Faculty Scholarship

This paper comments on the Obama administration's 2009 proposal for the regulation of hedge fund investment advisers.

Dating The Timeline Of Financial Bubbles During The Subprime Crisis, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A new recursive regression methodology is introduced to analyze the bubble characteristics of various financial time series during the subprime crisis. The methods modify a technique proposed in Phillips, Wu, and Yu (2011) and provide a technology for identifying bubble behavior with consistent dating of their origination and collapse. The tests serve as an early warning diagnostic of bubble activity and a new procedure is introduced for testing bubble migration across markets. Three relevant financial series are investigated, including a financial asset price (a house price index), a commodity price (the crude oil price), and one bond price (the spread …

Explosive Behavior In The 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?, Peter C. B. Phillips, Yangru Wu, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A recursive test procedure is suggested that provides a mechanism for testing explosive behavior, date-stamping the origination and collapse of economic exuberance, and providing valid confidence intervals for explosive growth rates. The method involves the recursive implementation of a right-side unit root test and a sup test, both of which are easy to use in practical applications, and some new limit theory for mildly explosive processes. The test procedure is shown to have discriminatory power in detecting periodically collapsing bubbles, thereby overcoming a weakness in earlier applications of unit root tests for economic bubbles. Some asymptotic properties of the Evans …

The Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Tracing And Evaluating New Patterns Of The Trilemma Configuration, Joshua Aizenman, Menzie David Chinn, Hiro Ito

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper investigates how the trilemma policy mix affects economic performance in developing countries. We find that greater monetary independence can dampen output volatility, while greater exchange rate stability is associated with greater output volatility, which can be mitigated by reserve accumulation; greater monetary autonomy is associated with higher inflation, while greater exchange rate stability and greater financial openness is linked with lower inflation; pursuit of exchange rate stability can increase output volatility when financial development is at an intermediate stage. Greater financial openness, when accompanied by a high level of financial development, reduces output volatility.

Monetary Policy And Asset Prices In A Small Open Economy: A Factor-Augmented Var Analysis For Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy

Research Collection School Of Economics

The ongoing global financial turmoil has revived the question of whether central bankers ought to tighten monetary policy preemptively in order to head off asset price misalignments before a sudden crash triggers financial instability. This study explores the issue of the appropriate monetary policy response to asset price swings in the small open economy of Singapore. Empirical analysis of monetary policy based on standard VAR models, unfortunately, is often hindered by the use of sparse information sets. To better reflect the extensive information monitored by Singapore’s central bank, including global economic indicators, we augment a monetary VAR model with common …

Foreign Direct Investment And Foreign Portfolio Investment Under Asymmetric Information, Ruanjai Suwantaradon

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops a model of international capital flows when there is asymmetric information between foreign investors and domestic managers. Direct investors have a direct influence on the management, thus overcoming agency and information problems. This information advantage, however, comes at the cost of having to acquire management expertise. The tradeoff between management costs and the costs of asymmetric information consequently determines the level and composition of a country’s international capital flows. Analyzing how this tradeoff changes with economic conditions in a country, the model can qualitatively capture the experiences of many crisis countries during the 1990s. Specifically, the model …

Lessons From Financial Crisis, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

SEPTEMBER 15, 2009 marked one year from the day American financial firm Lehman Brothers collapsed. The subsequent onslaught on the global financial system set in a recession of the magnitude not experienced since 1930.

Financial institutions considered rock solid such as AIG and Citibank came almost on the verge of collapse. The world economy contracted for the first time in decades. But a year later the ‘green shoots’ have started appearing and the consensus view is that the global economy is coming out of the storm.

Economic historians will take many years to fully analyse the causes of the crisis …

Describing The Economic Impact Of The Oil And Gas Industry In Arkansas, Katherine A. Deck, Viktoria Riiman

Publications and Presentations

The Arkansas oil and natural gas industries are increasingly important to the state’s economic vitality. As global demand for energy increases, domestic production is put into the spotlight. This study describes the economic impact of the oil and gas industries in Arkansas, focusing on the sector’s economic output, employment, and tax revenues.

Simulation-Based Estimation Of Contingent-Claims Prices, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A new methodology is proposed to estimate theoretical prices of financial contingent claims whose values are dependent on some other underlying financial assets. In the literature, the preferred choice of estimator is usually maximum likelihood (ML). ML has strong asymptotic justification but is not necessarily the best method in finite samples. This paper proposes a simulation-based method. When it is used in connection with ML, it can improve the finite-sample performance of the ML estimator while maintaining its good asymptotic properties. The method is implemented and evaluated here in the Black-Scholes option pricing model and in the Vasicek bond and …

Subnational Credit Rating: A Comparative Review, Lili Liu, Kim Song Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper surveys methodological issues in subnational credit ratings and highlights key challenges for developing countries. Subnational borrowing from capital markets has been on the rise owing to fiscal decentralization and demand for infrastructure investments. A prerequisite for accessing capital markets, subnational credit ratings have also emerged as a part of broader reform for fiscal sustainability. They facilitate a more transparent budgetary and financial management system. The global financial crisis makes subnational credit ratings more relevant, as they contribute to fiscal risk evaluations and fiscal adjustment. In addition to subnationals’ own credit strength, the creditworthiness of the sovereign and the …

The Evolution Of Lianyungang Port Fund From Share Market, Pengyu Bai

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Analysis On Strategies Of Liners Against The Global Financial Crisis, Feng Chen

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

The Correlation Analysis Between Financial And Shipping Industry, Bailin Sui

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Research On The Supply Chain Inventory Management To Gen Garment Co. Ltd, Wei Wang

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

A Study On Development Strategy Of Shipping Company C Dalian Branch, Minghui Xu

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Influence Of Financial Storm On The Ship Chartering Market And The Way Of Risks Control, Xingyuan Sun

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

The Research On Function And Application Of Financial Leasing For Small And Medium Size Shipping Enterprise : Decision Making On Ship Financing In M Company, Yu Miao

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

The Construction And Development Of Shanghai International Shipping Center, Shimin Wang

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Research On Scf Model Under Financial Crisis : An Integrated Sc Project In China Based On Financing, Rui Liu

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Study The Chio Chemical Logistics Business Development Strategy Base On The Global Financial Crisis, Shang Xia

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.