Food Security Commons^™

Stock Market Volatility In The United Kingdom: Simulating Post-Covid-19 Recovery, Bala A. Dahiru, Mohammed Shuaibu, Najibullah Hassanov

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates the time it would take for the FTSE-100 index to reach its post-COVID-19 peak. The paper utilises an exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model that accounts for leverage effect and asymmetries. The preferred models amongst competing variants was the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA)-EGARCH(2,1) specification and was used to predict daily FTSE-100 data from 5th January 2000 to 21st June 2024. The empirical exercise showed that the COVID-19-induced financial crisis negatively affected the United Kingdom’s stock market performance. The results show that the FTSE100 index could reach its post-pandemic peak around 27th August, 2024 (two months after …

Modelling The Naira Exchange Rate Dependence Using Static And Time-Varying Copula, Kabir Katata

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines the dependence structure of different currencies versus the Nigerian Naira using constant and time-varying copula. Daily Naira/USD, Naira/Yuan, Naira/Pound, and Naira/Euro exchange rates from 23 December 2011 to 12 May 2020 were utilised. We fitted eight constant and time-varying copula families using the exchange rate standardised residuals. The study finds that the Naira exchange rate may be estimated with student t-copula, Symmetrized Joe-Clayton (SJC), or Rotated Gumbel copula models and Autoregressive (AR)– Glosten Jagannathan RunkleGeneralized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GJR-GARCH) (1,1) models with skewed t residuals for margins. The Naira exchange rate returns is timevarying, tail-dependent, and asymmetric. …

Food Price And Inflation Adjustments In Nigeria: Evidence From Threshold Cointegration, Usman A. Bello, Aliyu R. Sanusi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates two stages of transmission through which inflation stabilization policy affects headline inflation by estimating a threshold cointegration model. The paper finds that asymmetric monetary shocks passing-through food prices exerts inflationary pressure on consumer prices, and is characterized by deep asymmetric movement, large degree of stickiness in adjusting downward, while exhibiting upward momentum in correcting food price fall. In addition, asymmetries were found in consumer price adjustment as food price shock transmits substantial inflationary pressure to consumer prices, while disinflationary effect originating from a fall in food price is inconsequential. The coefficients of adjustment were found to be …

Modelling The Impact Of Government Expenditure On Economic Growth In Nigeria: The Moderating Effects Of Oil And Non-Oil Revenue, Victor U. Ijirshar, Gaius M. Asombo, Florence D. Bundepuun, Ashifa Tersugh, Ayila Ngutsav

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth and assesses the moderating effects of oil revenue and non-oil revenue in Nigeria from 1981 to 2021. The study uncovered short-term asymmetry in the government expenditure-economic growth nexus while the long-term relationship was symmetric. The study found that government expenditure is a significant determinant of economic growth in Nigeria and that oil and non-oil revenue influences the nexus between government expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria positively. The study recommends efficient management of oil revenue, directing investments during high revenue periods and ensuring fiscal sustainability. Government should also establish …

Improving The Efficiency Of Exponential Ratio-Type Estimator For Population Median: A Calibration Weight Adjustment Approach, Mathew J. Iseh, Kufre J. Bassey

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper modifies the Bahl and Tuteja exponential ratio-type estimator for population median under simple random and stratified sampling schemes using calibration weight adjustment technique with supplementary information to vary the stratum weights. The bias and mean square error of the modified estimator were obtained up to the second-order approximation, which satisfies the necessary conditions for efficiency. The findings show that the new estimator surpasses existing estimators in efficiency gain. This suggests the appropriateness of calibration weight modification in boosting the efficiency of a population parameter estimator under stratified random sampling especially where the population parameter of the auxiliary variable …

Savings-Investment Gap In Sub-Saharan Africa: Does The Interaction Of Financial Sector Development And Migrant Remittances Matter?, Wasiu Adekunle, Oluwatosin Adeniyi, Joshua Afolabi, Musibau Babatunde, Edward Omiwale

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study analyses the interactive effects of migrant remittances and financial development on savings-investment gap for a panel of 18 Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries from 1990-2017. Results from a panel ARDL model show that migrant remittances reduce savings-investment gap in the long run. The gap is further reduced when the individual effect of financial development, and the interactive effects of migrant remittances and financial development are taken into consideration. Further analysis reveals evidence of widening effects of rising real GDP growth and bank deposits over a long-term horizon, while higher private sector credit widened the savings-investment gap only in the …

Effect Of Monetary Policy Rate On Market Interest Rates In Nigeria: A Threshold And Nardl Approach, Oluwafemi E. Awopegba, Joseph O. Afolabi, Lydia T. Adeoye, Godwin O. Akpokodje

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the effect of monetary policy rate (MPR) on market interest rates in Nigeria. For parsimony, we develop two indexes called the short-term interest rate (SINT) and Lending interest rate (LINT) to represent deposit and lending rates respectively. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) and threshold regression models are adopted. The study uses monthly data from 2002:M1 to 2019:M12. The results of the threshold regression model indicate that the degree of the effect of MPR on SINT and LINT above the estimated threshold of 11 and 13 percent respectively is greater and significant than if MPR were to …

Social Dimension Of Inclusive Growth In Ecowas: Implication For Poverty Reduction, Toriola K. Anu, Goerge O. Emmanuel, Ajayi O. Felix

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the implication of the social dimension of inclusive growth on poverty reduction in Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) countries. It specifically examines how social indices of inclusive growth comprising of income inequality, education, and health outcomes affect poverty reduction. The study uses a panel dataset of the six (6) lower-middle income countries in ECOWAS which was analysed via panel Difference Generalised Method of Moment (D-GMM). The results show that GDP per capita exerts significant negative effect on poverty while inequality, education and health outcomes do not show significant effect on poverty. Although, the estimates of …

Effect Of Fdi Inflows On Employment Generation In Selected Ecowas Countries: Heterogeneous Panel Analysis, Timothy A. Aderemi, Olawunmi Omitogun, Bukonla G. Osisanwo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The aim of this study is to examine the effect of FDI on employment in ECOWAS sub region between 1990 and 2019. The study utilizes a panel autoregressive distributed lag model to analyse the short run and long run relationship between FDI and employment across ECOWAS sub region. In the short run, the impact of FDI on employment is negative and statistically not significant. Meanwhile, in the long run FDI has a positive and statistically significant impact on employment rate. This implies that FDI has the capacity to generate employment in countries in ECOWAS sub region. Therefore, this study recommends …

Impact Of Covid-19 Pandemic On The Nigeria Stock Market: A Sectoral Stock Prices Analysis, Peter A. Adekunle, Yakubu A. Bello, Udochukwu G. Nwachukwu

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on sectoral stock prices in Nigeria stock market using daily data covering from February 28, 2020 to June 26, 2020. Applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test, the study finds that COVID-19 pandemic had adverse impact on the stock market indices in the short run. Furthermore, the study documents negative response of sectoral stock prices to the pandemic while the stock prices of the banking sub-sector are the worst hit. Compared to the consumer goods, and industrial subsector indices, the speed of adjustment to long run equilibrium is faster for …

Food Security, Economic Growth And Price Stability Nexus And Conceptual Issues, Park O. Idisi

Economic and Financial Review

A strong argument that encourages analysing food security and food price stability issues is importance to economic well-being. Nigeria is one of the most food insecure countries and highly affected by all three drivers. For one, the country is vulnerable to price instability and successively hit by environmental disasters, that impact people’s livelihoods. Furthermore, its economy is thriving, but around 48.0 per cent of its population lives below the poverty line (World Bank, 2020; World Poverty Clock, 2020). In addition to that, since 2009 northeastern Nigeria is struck by insurgency. Essentially, sustainability in economic growth is dependent on achievement of …

Keynote Address, Godwin I. Emefiele Con

Economic and Financial Review

The theme for this year’s edition, “Food Security in Nigeria: Options for Policy” is apt and in tune with the existing realities of both the global and domestic economies, which have suffered heavily from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, the theme could not have come at a better time than now when issues of insecurity, climate change, and COVID-19 related disruptions are challenging food production and supply, not only in Nigeria but also globally. As a matter of fact, food security is critical for national security, economic stability and sustainable development.

Special Remarks, Kingsley Obiora

Economic and Financial Review

The theme of this year’s Seminar, Food Security in Nigeria: Options for Policy, is apt, timely and consistent with the current efforts of this administration and the Bank in finding sustainable solutions to the food security challenges confronting us as a nation. As we all know, food is a basic need of every man and key to socio-economic stability. The ability of a country to feed its people, and perhaps extend the surplus to other countries, is one of the key indicators of good standing in the comity of nations. The World Food Summit (1996), defined food security as a …

Addressing Food Insecurity In Nigeria: Lessons From Jurisdictional Experiences, Biodun Adedipe

Economic and Financial Review

The challenge of food security transcends national or regional boundaries, and indeed became a global concern in 2015 when the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were set. Goal 2 targets zero hunger by 2030, and that is, to end hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture. While the entire world is not in shortage of food, there are wide disparities in food sufficiency and food security across nations, regions and continents. The SDG No. 2 is a 5x1 matrix of five targets and three actions as summarised in Table 1. The targets are five critical elements of …

Averting The Looming Food Crisis: A Clarion Call To Immediate And Near-Term Policy Action, Kabir Ibrahim Mnia, Fnim, Acc

Economic and Financial Review

This paper seeks to advise on how to tackle the skyrocketing prices of food being experienced today all over the nation and to get the Government to take urgent and proactive actions to avert the pain being experienced by the entire Nigerian people.

Averting The Looming Food Crisis: A Clarion Call To Immediate And Near-Term Policy Action, Alwan A. Hassan

Economic and Financial Review

Nigeria suffers from food insecurity and poverty. It is estimated that the number of hungry people in Nigeria is over 53 million, which is about 25.0 per cent of the country’s total population of about 212 million. Also, about 43.0 per cent of Nigerians live below the poverty line. These statistics are worrisome, given that Nigeria, in the 1950s and 1960s, was not only self-sufficient in food production, but was also a net exporter of food to other regions of the continent (Ajayeoba, 2010). A nation is food secure when food is available and accessible in sufficient quantity and quality …

Welcome Address, Itohan M. Ogbomon-Paul

Economic and Financial Review

The theme of this year’s Seminar is tagged “Food Security in Nigeria: Options for policy”. The central focus of the Seminar is to discuss policy options for tackling the challenges of food insecurity, with the resultant outcomes on poverty reduction, job and wealth creation, as well as overall growth and development of the Nigerian economy. This year’s Seminar provides a unique opportunity for us all, because food holds the key to quality human existence. Indeed, food security is at the core of every nation’s development agenda. The quantity and quality of food available to the citizenry is correlated with the …

A Review Of Federal Government Support Policies And Programmes For Food Security: A Farmers Perspective, Muhammad A, Liman

Economic and Financial Review

To properly address the above topic, we need to examine how the farming community evolved over the years in Nigeria. We equally need to understand the impact of the support policies and programmes of the Federal Government, analyse them, identify which aspects of these policies and programmes require review, and then offer a way forward. We need to examine and define some terms and raise questions that will form the basis of our presentation. These include: Who is a farmer? What is food security? What are the current Federal Government support policies and programmes? How have these policies and programmes …

Socio-Economic And Environmental Issues: Implications For Food Security In Nigeria, Isaiah O. Olurinola, Evans Osabuohien

Economic and Financial Review

Socio-economic activities within the agricultural sector have witnessed significant changes in recent times. Two major factors account for this recent development. Available evidence shows that over the last four decades, environmental challenges (such as pollution, extreme weather, fire disaster and deforestation, among others) have been on the increase in Nigeria. This is complicated by a weak institutional framework to stem the tide (Egbetokun et al., 2018; 2020). Also, the information from Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET) shows that the annual mean climatic conditions (that is rainfall and temperature) in Nigeria have witnessed huge variation (NIMET, 2020; Egbetokun et al., 2020), which …

Socio-Economic And Environmental Issues: Implications For Food Security In Nigeria, Isaiah O. Olurinola, Evans Osabuohien

Economic and Financial Review

Nigeria has made many policies toward improving the contribution of the agricultural sector in the economy; however, there is a need to fine-tune some of the policies, particularly regarding food security.

There is a need for systemic intervention in the transformation of the agricultural sector including the modernisation/formalisation of the informal sector. T

Therefore, this paper sets out to, among others, investigate the state of food security in Nigeria, especially in relation to the current socio-economic and environmental issues affecting agricultural productivity, and then proffers some policy analytical models and recommendations for ensuring food security in the country.

Averting The Looming Food Crisis: A Clarion Call To Immediate And Near-Term Policy Action, Gabriel S. Umoh

Economic and Financial Review

This paper reviews food crisis and its causes in Nigeria. It takes the position that food crisis has been simmering in Nigeria for the past couple of years and identifies policy instability, poor policy implementation and declining household purchasing power, among others as the major causes of food crisis. It recommends strong policy support and implementation, automatic indexation of wages and pensions and other measures to curb food crisis in the country.

Averting The Looming Food Crisis: A Clarion Call To Immediate And Near-Term Policy Action, Emmanuel A. Onwioduokit

Economic and Financial Review

Discussions on food security have gained traction in the recent past, especially in Africa and other developing economies. Several horrifying images of famished families, particularly around “The Horn of Africa” including Somalia, Ethiopia, and some parts of Kenya, projected globally in both the print and electronic media vividly illustrate the perils of food crises. In Nigeria, food constitute a substantial share of family budgets, particularly for low-income households. When prices of essential foods items increase poorer people suffer the adverse impacts more disproportionately. While clothing and shelter are basic necessities of life, food remains the most vital, given its centrality …

Enhancing Institutional Lending To The Agricultural Sector By Derisking The Value Chain: The Case Of Nigerian Incentive Based Risk Sharing System For Agricultural Lending (Nirsal), Ishaku Mikloda Polycarp

Bullion

There is no gainsaying that agriculture is one of the most important sectors in the Nigerian economy as it employs at least 60% of Nigerians and contributes up to 23.11% of the country's GDP. The performance of the agricultural sector has not been encouraging over the years, resulting in the importation of over N 1.0 trillion in wheat, rice, sugar and fish. Policy responses towards channeling financial resources to the agricultural sector in Nigeria have a long history through government and CBN sponsored programmes. Among CBN intervention schemes is the Nigeria Incentive-based Risk Sharing System for Agricultural Lending (NIRSAL). It …

Short-Term Inflation Forecasting Models For Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa, Sarah O. Alade

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Short-term inflation forecasting is an essential component of the monetary policy projections at the Central Bank of Nigeria. This paper proposes four short-term headline inflation forecasting models using the SARIMA and SARIMAX processes and compares their performance using the pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting procedure over July 2011 to September 2013. According to the results the best forecasting performance is demonstrated by the model based on the all items CPI estimated using the SARIMAX model. This model is, therefore, recommended for use in short-term forecasting of headline inflation in Nigeria. The forecasting performance up to eight months ahead, of the models based on …

An Efficient Two Sample Capture-Recapture Model With High Recaptures, Danjuma Jibasen, Yusuf J. Adams

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper proposed an efficient two sample capture-recapture model (Ma) with high recaptures and compared it with the existing models like the model of no factor effect (Mo), behavioral response model (Mb) and the Petersen model (Ms), using simulated data. We found that the Petersen model provides a better estimate of the population size when the observations follow a hypergeometric distribution and the population is overestimated when recapture is high. It was also found that the proposed model provides a better estimator of the population size than the existing ones when the recapture is high. This model is particularly useful …

Causal Relationship Between Stock Market Index And Exchange Rate: Evidence From Nigeria, Abdulrasheed Zubair

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper uses Johansen’s cointegration to test for the possibility of cointegration and Granger-causality to estimate the causal relationship between stock market index and monetary indicators (exchange rate and M2) before and during the global financial crisis for Nigeria, using monthly data for the period 2001–2011. Results suggest absence of long-run relationship before and during the crisis. The Granger-causality tests show a uni-directional causality running from M2 to ASI before the crisis while during the period of the crisis there is absence of causality between the variables. This suggests that ASI show responsiveness to M2. Thus, absence of the direct …

Investigating Chaos In The Nigerian Asset And Resource Management (Arm) Discovery Fund, Ibiyinka A. Fuwape, Samuel T. Ogunjo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates chaos in a Nigerian mutual fund, Asset and Resource Management Company Limited (ARM) for a period of eleven years. The existence of chaotic signals in the data was identified by the reconstruction of the phase space of the daily closing price of the fund and the delay time was quantified using mutual information function and the embedding dimension by the false nearest neighbours, where the values were identified to be 15 and 20 respectively. The presence of chaotic signals in the ARM data was further confirmed by the correlation dimension method which yielded a dimension of 2.2 …

Modeling The Nigerian Inflation Rates Using Periodogram And Fourier Series Analysis, Chukwuemeka O. Omekara,, Emmanuel J. Ekpenyong, Micheal P. Ekerete

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This work considers the application of Periodogram and Fourier Series Analysis to model all-items monthly inflation rates in Nigeria from 2003 to 2011. The main objectives are to identify inflation cycles, fit a suitable model to the data and make forecasts of future values. To achieve these objectives, monthly all-items inflation rates for the period were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) website. Periodogram and Fourier series methods of analysis are used to analyze the data. Based on the analysis, it was found that inflation cycle within the period was fifty one (51) months, which coincides with the …

Nigerian Stock Index: A Search For Optimal Garch Model Using High Frequency Data, Olaoluwa Simon Yaya

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper attempts to fit the best Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model for All Share Index (ASI) of Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) returns. A search is made on various GARCH variants specified on the assumptions of stationarity and asymmetry. Fractionally integrated types are also considered to capture the possibility of return series having property of long range dependency. The parameter estimations are carried out on the assumptions of normality and non-normality of GARCH innovations, with models and forecasts evaluated using information criteria and loss functions respectively. Under normality assumption, Hyperbolic GARCH (HYGARCH(1,d,1)) model is selected and Integrated GARCH (IGARCH(1,1)) …

Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria External Reserves, Iheanyichukwu S. Iwueze, Eleazar C. Nwogu, Valentine U. Nlebedim

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper discusses the levels and trend of external reserves in Nigeria. The relevance of this lies in the fact that it could help to monitor the reserves and throw early warning signal about any economic crisis. Monthly data on Nigeria external reserves for the period January 1999 to December, 2008 derived from the 2008 CBN Statistical Bulletin was analyzed using ARIMA model. Results of the analyses show that (i) the data requires logarithmic transformation to stabilize the variance and make the distribution normal (ii) the appropriate model that best describes the pattern in the transformed data is the Autoregressive- …