Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Optimism And Pessimism With Expected Utility, David Dillenberger, Andrew Postlewaite, Kareen Rozen

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Savage (1954) provided a set of axioms on preferences over acts that were equivalent to the existence of an expected utility representation. We show that in addition to this representation, there is a continuum of other “expected utility” representations in which for any act, the probability distribution over states depends on the corresponding outcomes. We suggest that optimism and pessimism can be captured by the stake-dependent probabilities in these alternative representations; e.g., for a pessimist, the probability of every outcome except the worst is distorted down from the Savage probability. Extending the DM’s preferences to be defined on both subjective …

Optimally Empty Promises And Endogenous Supervision, David A. Miller, Kareen Rozen

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We study optimal contracting in team settings, featuring stylized aspects of production environments with complex tasks. Agents have many opportunities to shirk, task-level monitoring is needed to provide useful incentives, and because it is difficult to write individual performance into formal contracts, incentives are provided informally, using wasteful sanctions like guilt and shame, or slowed promotion. These features give rise to optimal contracts with “empty promises” and endogenous supervision structures. Agents optimally make more promises than they intend to keep, leading to the concentration of supervisory responsibility in the hands of one or two agents.

Gmm Estimation And Uniform Subvector Inference With Possible Identification Failure, Donald W.K. Andrews, Xu Cheng

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper determines the properties of standard generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators, tests, and confidence sets (CS’s) in moment condition models in which some parameters are unidentified or weakly identified in part of the parameter space. The asymptotic distributions of GMM estimators are established under a full range of drifting sequences of true parameters and distributions. The asymptotic sizes (in a uniform sense) of standard GMM tests and CS’s are established. The paper also establishes the correct asymptotic sizes of “robust” GMM-based Wald, t; and quasi-likelihood ratio tests and CS’s whose critical values are designed to yield robustness to …

Public Goods Through Taxation In A General Equilibrium Economy: Experimental Evidence, Juergen Huber, Martin Shubik, Shyam Sunder

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We use a laboratory experiment to compare general equilibrium economies in which agents individually allocate their private goods among consumption, investment in production and maintenance of a depreciating public facility. The public facility is financed either by voluntary anonymous contributions (VAC) or taxes. We find that rates of taxation chosen by majority vote remain at an intermediate level, converging neither to zero nor to 100%, and the experimental economies sustain public goods at levels between the finite- and infinite-horizon optima. This contrasts with a rapid decline of public goods under voluntary anonymous contributions (VAC). Both the payoff efficiency and production …

Aging Gracefully: Emerging Issues For Public Policy And Consumer Welfare, Vanessa G. Perry, Joyce M. Wolburg

College of Communication Faculty Research and Publications

To be an aging consumer in a youth culture means facing several challenges, including maintaining self-esteem in the face of negative media portrayals, redefining the meaning of being sexually active, coping with vulnerability, planning for retirement and investing for the final years. Despite tremendous differences and contradictions among aging consumers, many policymakers take a narrow, single-minded approach to issues of consumer welfare and public policy, which fails to address the wide variation among members of this group.

In Search Of The Neurobiological Substrates For Social Playfulness In Mammalian Brains, Stephen M. Siviy, Jaak Panksepp

Psychology Faculty Publications

Play behavior is a fundamental and intrinsic neurobehavioral process in the mammalian brain. Using rough-and-tumble play in the juvenile rat as a model system to study mammalian playfulness, some of the relevant neurobiological substrates for this behavior have been identified, and in this review this progress. A primary-process executive circuit for play in the rat that includes thalamic intralaminar nuclei, frontal cortex and striatum can be gleaned from these data. Other neural areas that may interact with this putative circuit include amygdala, ventral hypothalamus, periaqueductal gray (PAG), and deep tectum, as well as ascending dopamine systems which participate in all …

Serotonin, Motivation, And Playfulness In The Juvenile Rat, Stephen M. Siviy, Loren M. Deron, Chelsea R. Kasten

Psychology Faculty Publications

The effects of the selective 5HT1A agonist 8-OH-DPAT were assessed on the play behavior of juvenile rats. When both rats of the test pair were comparably motivated to play, the only significant effect of 8-OH-DPAT was for play to be reduced at higher doses. When there was a baseline asymmetry in playful solicitation due to a differential motivation to play and only one rat of the pair was treated, low doses of 8-OH-DPAT resulted in a collapse of asymmetry in playful solicitations. It did not matter whether the rat that was treated initially accounted for more nape contacts or fewer …

Criss Chronicles, Volume 2, Issue 1

Criss Chronicles Newsletter

This issue highlights CREDO Reference, A Conversation With... Stephen Shorb, group and individual study rooms, Criss Library Award Winners, Playaway View, The Art of Theatrical Design at the Osborne Family Gallery, student election campaign materials from early to mid 1950s in the university archives, Faculty Open House, Four Things I Learned About Criss by Karen Pietsch, Web of Science, and a calendar of events.

Wright State University Libraries Access Newsletter Fall 2011, Wright State University Libraries

Access Newsletter

A four page newsletter created by Wright State University Libraries that addresses the current affairs of the Libraries.

Sociology Of Islam & Muslim Societies, Newsletter No. 7, Tugrul Keskin

Sociology of Islam & Muslim Societies Newsletter

Table of Contents:

• Social and Political Transformations in the Middle East by Umit Kurt and Oguz Alyanak
• The Political Economy of Turkey’s Response to the Arab Spring by Altay Atli
• Footsteps of Revolution in the Land of Queen Sheba by Bezen Balamir Coskun
• Two Sides of the Same Coin; Conflicting Views of Islamism in Pakistan by Jeanette Bailey
• Egypt and the "Arab Spring": Notes on Facts and Challenges by Moises Garduño García
• The Arab Spring and the Turkish Model by Alper Y. Dede
• Will Geopolitics Split Along Sectarian Lines in the Middle East? Witnessing the Rise of a Sectarian Speech …

Correlated Equilibrium In Games With Incomplete Information, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We define a notion of correlated equilibrium for games with incomplete information in a general setting with finite players, finite actions, and finite states, which we call Bayes correlated equilibrium. The set of Bayes correlated equilibria of a fixed incomplete information game equals the set of probability distributions over actions, states and types that might arise in any Bayes Nash equilibrium where players observed additional information. We show that more information always shrinks the set of Bayes correlated equilibria.

Maximum Likelihood Estimation And Uniform Inference With Sporadic Identification Failure, Donald W.K. Andrews, Xu Cheng

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper analyzes the properties of a class of estimators, tests, and confidence sets (CS’s) when the parameters are not identified in parts of the parameter space. Specifically, we consider estimator criterion functions that are sample averages and are smooth functions of a parameter theta. This includes log likelihood, quasi-log likelihood, and least squares criterion functions. We determine the asymptotic distributions of estimators under lack of identification and under weak, semi-strong, and strong identification. We determine the asymptotic size (in a uniform sense) of standard t and quasi-likelihood ratio (QLR) tests and CS’s. We provide methods of constructing QLR tests …

Estimates Of The Social Cost Of Carbon: Background And Results From The Rice-2011 Model, William D. Nordhaus

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

A new and important concept in global warming economics and policy is the social cost of carbon or SCC. This concept represents the economic cost caused by an additional ton of carbon-dioxide emissions or its equivalent. The present study describes the development of the concept as well as its analytical background. We estimate the SCC using an updated version of the RICE-2011 model. Additional concerns are uncertainty about different aspects of global warming as well as the treatment of different countries or generations. The most important results are: First, the estimated social cost of carbon for the current time (2015) …

On Bartlett Correctability Of Empirical Likelihood In Generalized Power Divergence Family, Lorenzo Camponovo, Taisuke Otsu

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Baggerly (1998) showed that empirical likelihood is the only member in the Cressie-Read power divergence family to be Bartlett correctable. This paper strengthens Baggerly’s result by showing that in a generalized class of the power divergence family, which includes the Cressie-Read family and other nonparametric likelihood such as Schennach’s (2005, 2007) exponentially tilted empirical likelihood, empirical likelihood is still the only member to be Bartlett correctable.

A Theory Of Asset Prices Based On Heterogeneous Information, Elias Albagli, Christian Hellwig, Aleh Tsyvinski

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We propose a theory of asset prices that emphasizes heterogeneous information as the main element determining prices of different securities. Our main analytical innovation is in formulating a model of noisy information aggregation through asset prices, which is parsimonious and tractable, yet flexible in the specification of cash flow risks. We show that the noisy aggregation of heterogeneous investor beliefs drives a systematic wedge between the impact of fundamentals on an asset price, and the corresponding impact on cash flow expectations. The key intuition behind the wedge is that the identity of the marginal trader has to shift for different …

Gmm Estimation And Uniform Subvector Inference With Possible Identification Failure, Donald W.K. Andrews, Xu Cheng

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper determines the properties of standard generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators, tests, and confidence sets (CS’s) in moment condition models in which some parameters are unidentified or weakly identified in part of the parameter space. The asymptotic distributions of GMM estimators are established under a full range of drifting sequences of true parameters and distributions. The asymptotic sizes (in a uniform sense) of standard GMM tests and CS’s are established. The paper also establishes the correct asymptotic sizes of “robust” GMM-based Wald, t , and quasi-likelihood ratio tests and CS’s whose critical values are designed to yield robustness …

Financing Of Public Goods Through Taxation In A General Equilibrium Economy: Theory And Experimental Evidence, Juergen Huber, Martin Shubik, Shyam Sunder

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We compare general equilibrium economies in which building and maintenance of a depreciating public facility is financed either by anonymous voluntary contributions or by taxing agents on their income from private production. Agents start with an endowment of private goods and money, while the government starts with an endowment of public good and money. All private goods produced are tendered for sale in exchange for money in a sell-all market mechanism. Agents’ proceeds from sale are taxed, and they individually allocate their private goods between current consumption and investment in production for the following period. The optimal levels of supply …

Career Concerns With Coarse Information, Alessandro Bonatti, Johannes Hörner

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper develops a model of career concerns. The worker’s skill is revealed through output, wage is based on expected output, and so on assessed ability. Specifically, effort increases the probability that a skilled worker achieves a one-time breakthrough. Effort levels at different times are strategic substitutes. Equilibrium effort (and, if marginal cost is convex, wage) is single-peaked with seniority. The agent works too little, too late. Both delay and underprovision of effort worsen if effort is observable. If the firm commits to wages but faces competition, the optimal contract features piecewise constant wages as well as severance pay.

Career Concerns And Market Structure, Alessandro Bonatti, Johannes Hörner

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper analyzes the impact of market structure on career concerns. Effort increases the probability that a skilled agent achieves a one-time breakthrough. Wages are based on assessed ability and on expected output. For any wage, the agent works too little, too late. Under short-term contracts, effort and wages are single-peaked with seniority, due to the strategic substitutability of effort levels at different times. Both delay and underprovision of effort worsen if effort is observable. Commitment to wages by competing firms mitigates these inefficiencies. In that case, the optimal contract features piecewise constant wages and severance pay.

Testing For Common Trends In Semiparametric Panel Data Models With Fixed Effects, Yonghui Zhang, Liangjun Su, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper proposes a nonparametric test for common trends in semiparametric panel data models with fixed effects based on a measure of nonparametric goodness-of-fit (R²). We first estimate the model under the null hypothesis of common trends by the method of profile least squares, and obtain the augmented residual which consistently estimates the sum of the fixed effect and the disturbance under the null. Then we run a local linear regression of the augmented residuals on a time trend and calculate the nonparametric R² for each cross section unit. The proposed test statistic is obtained by averaging all cross sectional …

Meritocracy Voting: Measuring The Unmeasurable, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Learned societies commonly carry out selection processes to add new fellows to an existing fellowship. Criteria vary across societies but are typically based on subjective judgments concerning the merit of individuals who are nominated for fellowships. These subjective assessments may be made by existing fellows as they vote in elections to determine the new fellows or they may be decided by a selection committee of fellows and officers of the society who determine merit after reviewing nominations and written assessments. Human judgment inevitably plays a central role in these determinations and, notwithstanding its limitations, is usually regarded as being a …

Using The Open Systems Perspective To Understand Critical Incidents, Denise D. P. Thompson

Publications and Research

At the end of its Fall 2010 conference, the Academy for Critical Incident Analysis (ACIA) called for the development of frameworks that would aid in the study and analysis of critical incidents. This paper responds to that call. The paper answers the question, “is it possible to construct a framework that is generic enough to encapsulate the essential components observed in all critical incidents?” The paper utilizes the open systems perspective to develop a conceptual framework to help us delineate and understand critical incidents and how they evolve. The paper presents examples to substantiate arguments made about the framework. The …

The Residual Income Method: A New Lens On Housing Affordability And Market Behaviour, Michael E. Stone, Terry Burke, Liss Ralston

Community Studies Faculty Publication Series

This study was designed to explore the viability of an alternative method of measuring affordability (the residual income method) to that of the ubiquitous 30 per cent benchmark method and to use this alternative method for enriching understanding around a range of affordability and housing market issues. The work has been exploratory but it does reveal both the potential and the limitations of the method. Put simply, the residual income method calculates how much is left over for housing rents or mortgage after relevant expenditure items for different household types have been taken into account. If there is insufficient left …

Reducing Our Waste In Bloomington-Normal, Il, Ashley Conrad, Alyssa Curran, Phillip Dawson, Tim Glaza, Lauren Karplus, Greg King, Amber Madden, Dane Myers, Ambuj Neupane, Nancy Ouedraogo, Elizabeth Rardin, Katie Saunders, Robyn Savacool, Carolyn Schulte, Danielle Shtraus,, Kate Slisz, Andrew Smolski,, Luke Tervola,, Jenna Williams

Community Project Design and Management Reports - Sociology

The purpose of this report is to inform public officials, the Ecology Action Center, and Bloomington/Normal residents of current habits, unmet needs and areas for improvement concerning community recycling programs. The findings are based on a survey of 290 Bloomington/Normal households, as well as interviews conducted with key stakeholders in the community. One of the more significant findings was the almost universal support for the expansion of the curbside recycling program in the area. Respondents also reported a general dissatisfaction with the current state of apartment recycling efforts, and support of the implementation of mandatory recycling in school districts. To …

A Cautious Partnership: The Growing Acceptance Of Folksonomy As A Complement To Indexing Digital Images And Catalogs, Eric Willey

Faculty and Staff Publications – Milner Library

As archives and museums place their photographic collections on the Web, the cost and time of indexing and assigning metadata to these images grows. One potential solution is to allow users to assign metadata to images, a practice known as folksonomy. While detractors label folksonomy as imprecise, sloppy, and overly focused on the needs of individual users, proponents applaud it as being directly tied to users' vocabularies, inexpensive, and a means of directly engaging users. Suggestions for improvements to folksonomy include providing more structure to the tags users can supply, allowing feedback on user supplied tags, and even turning the …

Concentration In The Airline Industry: Evidence Of Economies Of Scale?, Ahren Johnston, John Ozment

Journal of Transportation Management

The early experience of the airline industry under deregulation was very much as expected, with increased competition and new entrants offering highly competitive rates. However, there are approximately 130 airlines operating today, and the industry remains more heavily concentrated than it was prior to deregulation. This study reports on concentration in the US airline industry between 1970 and 2009, as measured by the Hcrfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) and Concentration Ratio, together with changes in industry costs. The results show a trend of industry-wide reduced costs per available seat mile that is negatively correlated with the increased level of industry output over …

Feasibility And Impact Of Telemonitor-Based Depression Care Management For Geriatric Homecare Patients, Thomas Sheeran, Terry Rabinowitz, Jennifer Lotterman, Catherine F. Reilly, Suzanne Brown Rn, Patricia Donehower, Elizabeth Ellsworth, Judith L. Amour, Martha L. Bruce

Social Work Faculty Publications

Objective: The objective of this study was to test the feasibility, acceptability, and preliminary clinical outcomes of a method to leverage existing home healthcare telemonitoring technology to deliver depression care management (DCM) to both Spanish- and English-speaking elderly homebound recipients of homecare services.

Materials and Methods: Three stand-alone, nonprofit community homecare agencies located in New York, Vermont, and Miami participated in this study. Evidence-based DCM was adapted to the telemonitor platform by programming questions and educational information on depression symptoms, antidepressant adherence, and side effects. Recruited patients participated for a minimum of 3 weeks. Telehealth nurses were trained on DCM …

Curriculum Vitae, Karen Ahmed

College of Business Faculty and Staff Works

No abstract provided.

Who Enters The Foreclosure Process?, Eric Doviak, Sean P. Macdonald

Publications and Research

Since February 2010, detailed information on every home mortgage default and foreclosure in New York State must be filed with the New York State Banking Department (NYSBD). The data enables us to identify the financial characteristics that make a defaulted borrower more (or less) likely to enter the foreclosure process. Our analysis of the NYSBD data suggests that borrowers in default who took larger loans are more likely to progress to foreclosure. It also suggests that reducing principal balances may reduce the foreclosure rate, but might have an adverse effect on the mortgage industry. Given the frequent criticism of the …

A Mother’S Kiss, Susan E. Murray

Lake Union Herald

No abstract provided.