Statistical Models Commons^™

Langevin Dynamic Models For Smfret Dynamic Shift, David Frost, Keisha Cook Dr, Hugo Sanabria Dr

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Using Geographic Information To Explore Player-Specific Movement And Its Effects On Play Success In The Nfl, Hayley Horn, Eric Laigaie, Alexander Lopez, Shravan Reddy

SMU Data Science Review

American Football is a billion-dollar industry in the United States. The analytical aspect of the sport is an ever-growing domain, with open-source competitions like the NFL Big Data Bowl accelerating this growth. With the amount of player movement during each play, tracking data can prove valuable in many areas of football analytics. While concussion detection, catch recognition, and completion percentage prediction are all existing use cases for this data, player-specific movement attributes, such as speed and agility, may be helpful in predicting play success. This research calculates player-specific speed and agility attributes from tracking data and supplements them with descriptive …

Stressor: An R Package For Benchmarking Machine Learning Models, Samuel A. Haycock

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

Many discipline specific researchers need a way to quickly compare the accuracy of their predictive models to other alternatives. However, many of these researchers are not experienced with multiple programming languages. Python has recently been the leader in machine learning functionality, which includes the PyCaret library that allows users to develop high-performing machine learning models with only a few lines of code. The goal of the stressor package is to help users of the R programming language access the advantages of PyCaret without having to learn Python. This allows the user to leverage R’s powerful data analysis workflows, while simultaneously …

Movie Recommender System Using Matrix Factorization, Roland Fiagbe

Data Science and Data Mining

Recommendation systems are a popular and beneficial field that can help people make informed decisions automatically. This technique assists users in selecting relevant information from an overwhelming amount of available data. When it comes to movie recommendations, two common methods are collaborative filtering, which compares similarities between users, and content-based filtering, which takes a user’s specific preferences into account. However, our study focuses on the collaborative filtering approach, specifically matrix factorization. Various similarity metrics are used to identify user similarities for recommendation purposes. Our project aims to predict movie ratings for unwatched movies using the MovieLens rating dataset. We developed …

Uconn Baseball Batting Order Optimization, Gavin Rublewski, Gavin Rublewski

Honors Scholar Theses

Challenging conventional wisdom is at the very core of baseball analytics. Using data and statistical analysis, the sets of rules by which coaches make decisions can be justified, or possibly refuted. One of those sets of rules relates to the construction of a batting order. Through data collection, data adjustment, the construction of a baseball simulator, and the use of a Monte Carlo Simulation, I have assessed thousands of possible batting orders to determine the roster-specific strategies that lead to optimal run production for the 2023 UConn baseball team. This paper details a repeatable process in which basic player statistics …

Employee Attrition: Analyzing Factors Influencing Job Satisfaction Of Ibm Data Scientists, Graham Nash

Symposium of Student Scholars

Employee attrition is a relevant issue that every business employer must consider when gauging the effectiveness of their employees. Whether or not an employee chooses to leave their job can come from a multitude of factors. As a result, employers need to develop methods in which they can measure attrition by calculating the several qualities of their employees. Factors like their age, years with the company, which department they work in, their level of education, their job role, and even their marital status are all considered by employers to assist in predicting employee attrition. This project will be analyzing a …

Using A Distributive Approach To Model Insurance Loss, Kayla Kippes

Departmental Honors & Graduate Capstone Projects

Insurance loss is an unpredicted event that stands at the forefront of the insurance industry. Loss in insurance represents the costs or expenses incurred due to a claim. An insurance claim is a request for the insurance company to pay for damage caused to an individual’s property. Loss can be measured by how much money (the dollar amount) has been paid out by the insurance company to repair the damage or it can be measured by the number of claims (claim count) made to the insurance company. Insured events include property damage due to fire, theft, flood, a car accident, …

Bridging The Chasm Between Fundamental, Momentum, And Quantitative Investing, Allen Hoskins, Jeff Reed, Robert Slater

SMU Data Science Review

A chasm exists between the active public equity investment management industry's fundamental, momentum, and quantitative styles. In this study, the researchers explore ways to bridge this gap by leveraging domain knowledge, fundamental analysis, momentum, crowdsourcing, and data science methods. This research also seeks to test the developed tools and strategies during the volatile time period of 2020 and 2021.

Stochastic Optimization To Reduce Aircraft Taxi-In Time At Igia, New Delhi, Rajib Das, Saileswar Ghosh, Rajendra Desai, Pijus Kanti Bhuin, Stuti Agarwal

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Since there is an uncertainty in the arrival times of flights, pre-scheduled allocation of runways and stands and the subsequent first-come-first-served treatment results in a sub-optimal allocation of runways and stands, this is the prime reason for the unusual delays in taxi-in times at IGIA, New Delhi.

We simulated the arrival pattern of aircraft and utilized stochastic optimization to arrive at the best runway-stands allocation for a day. Optimization is done using a GRG Non-Linear algorithm in the Frontline Systems Analytic Solver platform. We applied this model to eight representative scenarios of two different days. Our results show that without …

Functional Data Analysis Of Covid-19, Nichole L. Fluke

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

This thesis deals with Functional Data Analysis (FDA) on COVID data. The Data involves counts for new COVID cases, hospitalized COVID patients, and new COVID deaths. The data used is for all the states and regions in the United States. The data starts in March 1^st, 2020 and goes through March 31^st, 2021. The FDA smooths the data and looks to see if there are similarities or differences between the states and regions in the data. The data also shows which states and regions stand out from the others and which ones are similar. Also shown …

Applications Of Machine Learning Algorithms In Materials Science And Bioinformatics, Mohammed Quazi

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

The piezoelectric response has been a measure of interest in density functional theory (DFT) for micro-electromechanical systems (MEMS) since the inception of MEMS technology. Piezoelectric-based MEMS devices find wide applications in automobiles, mobile phones, healthcare devices, and silicon chips for computers, to name a few. Piezoelectric properties of doped aluminum nitride (AlN) have been under investigation in materials science for piezoelectric thin films because of its wide range of device applicability. In this research using rigorous DFT calculations, high throughput ab-initio simulations for 23 AlN alloys are generated.

This research is the first to report strong enhancements of piezoelectric properties …

Data Ethics: An Investigation Of Data, Algorithms, And Practice, Gabrialla S. Cockerell

Honors Projects

This paper encompasses an examination of defective data collection, algorithms, and practices that continue to be cycled through society under the illusion that all information is processed uniformly, and technological innovation consistently parallels societal betterment. However, vulnerable communities, typically the impoverished and racially discriminated, get ensnared in these harmful cycles due to their disadvantages. Their hindrances are reflected in their information due to the interconnectedness of data, such as race being highly correlated to wealth, education, and location. However, their information continues to be analyzed with the same measures as populations who are not significantly affected by racial bias. Not …

Intra-Hour Solar Forecasting Using Cloud Dynamics Features Extracted From Ground-Based Infrared Sky Images, Guillermo Terrén-Serrano

Electrical and Computer Engineering ETDs

Due to the increasing use of photovoltaic systems, power grids are vulnerable to the projection of shadows from moving clouds. An intra-hour solar forecast provides power grids with the capability of automatically controlling the dispatch of energy, reducing the additional cost for a guaranteed, reliable supply of energy (i.e., energy storage). This dissertation introduces a novel sky imager consisting of a long-wave radiometric infrared camera and a visible light camera with a fisheye lens. The imager is mounted on a solar tracker to maintain the Sun in the center of the images throughout the day, reducing the scattering effect produced …

Flood Risk Prediction In Southern Louisiana Using Support Vector Machines, Claire Dorsett

Mathematics Senior Capstone Papers

Flooding in Southern Louisiana is a growing concern as violent weather becomes more frequent. According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Louisiana soils have become drier and annual rainfall trends have increased, which may lead to more severe flooding in the coming years. In light of this change in weather trends, flood prediction has become increasingly important for the public’s safety. The focus of this paper is to apply the Support Vector Machine (SVM), a machine learning technique, to classify flood risks based on water gage height, wind speed and direction, and time of the year. In this paper, the …

Session 5: Equipment Finance Credit Risk Modeling - A Case Study In Creative Model Development & Nimble Data Engineering, Edward Krueger, Landon Thompson, Josh Moore

SDSU Data Science Symposium

This presentation will focus first on providing an overview of Channel and the Risk Analytics team that performed this case study. Given that context, we’ll then dive into our approach for building the modeling development data set, techniques and tools used to develop and implement the model into a production environment, and some of the challenges faced upon launch. Then, the presentation will pivot to the data engineering pipeline. During this portion, we will explore the application process and what happens to the data we collect. This will include how we extract & store the data along with how it …

Finding The Best Predictors For Foot Traffic In Us Seafood Restaurants, Isabel Paige Beaulieu

Honors Theses and Capstones

COVID-19 caused state and nation-wide lockdowns, which altered human foot traffic, especially in restaurants. The seafood sector in particular suffered greatly as there was an increase in illegal fishing, it is made up of perishable goods, it is seasonal in some places, and imports and exports were slowed. Foot traffic data is useful for business owners to have to know how much to order, how many employees to schedule, etc. One issue is that the data is very expensive, hard to get, and not available until months after it is recorded. Our goal is to not only find covariates that …

Realtime Event Detection In Sports Sensor Data With Machine Learning, Mallory Cashman

Honors Theses and Capstones

Machine learning models can be trained to classify time series based sports motion data, without reliance on assumptions about the capabilities of the users or sensors. This can be applied to predict the count of occurrences of an event in a time period. The experiment for this research uses lacrosse data, collected in partnership with SPAITR - a UNH undergraduate startup developing motion tracking devices for lacrosse. Decision Tree and Support Vector Machine (SVM) models are trained and perform with high success rates. These models improve upon previous work in human motion event detection and can be used a reference …

Estimating The Statistics Of Operational Loss Through The Analyzation Of A Time Series, Maurice L. Brown

Theses and Dissertations

In the world of finance, appropriately understanding risk is key to success or failure because it is a fundamental driver for institutional behavior. Here we focus on risk as it relates to the operations of financial institutions, namely operational risk. Quantifying operational risk begins with data in the form of a time series of realized losses, which can occur for a number of reasons, can vary over different time intervals, and can pose a challenge that is exacerbated by having to account for both frequency and severity of losses. We introduce a stochastic point process model for the frequency distribution …

Role Of Inhibition And Spiking Variability In Ortho- And Retronasal Olfactory Processing, Michelle F. Craft

Theses and Dissertations

Odor perception is the impetus for important animal behaviors, most pertinently for feeding, but also for mating and communication. There are two predominate modes of odor processing: odors pass through the front of nose (ortho) while inhaling and sniffing, or through the rear (retro) during exhalation and while eating and drinking. Despite the importance of olfaction for an animal’s well-being and specifically that ortho and retro naturally occur, it is unknown whether the modality (ortho versus retro) is transmitted to cortical brain regions, which could significantly instruct how odors are processed. Prior imaging studies show different …

Application Of Randomness In Finance, Jose Sanchez, Daanial Ahmad, Satyanand Singh

Publications and Research

Brownian Motion which is also considered to be a Wiener process and can be thought of as a random walk. In our project we had briefly discussed the fluctuations of financial indices and related it to Brownian Motion and the modeling of Stock prices.

Markov Chains And Their Applications, Fariha Mahfuz

Math Theses

Markov chain is a stochastic model that is used to predict future events. Markov chain is relatively simple since it only requires the information of the present state to predict the future states. In this paper we will go over the basic concepts of Markov Chain and several of its applications including Google PageRank algorithm, weather prediction and gamblers ruin.

We examine on how the Google PageRank algorithm works efficiently to provide PageRank for a Google search result. We also show how can we use Markov chain to predict weather by creating a model from real life data.

An Exploratory Analysis Of The Bgsu Learning Commons Student Usage Data, Emily Eskuri

Honors Projects

The purpose of this study was to explore past student usage data in individualized tutoring sessions from the Learning Commons from two academic years. The Bowling Green State University (BGSU) Learning Commons is a learning assistance center that offers various services, such as individualized tutoring, math assistance, writing assistance, study hours, and academic coaching. There have been limited research studies into how big data and analytics can have an impact in higher education, especially research utilizing predictive analytics.

This project applied analytics to individualized tutoring data in the Learning Commons to create a better understanding of why those trends happen …

Understanding The Effect Of Adaptive Mutations On The Three-Dimensional Structure Of Rna, Justin Cook

Undergraduate Research and Scholarship Symposium

Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are variations in the genome where one base pair can differ between individuals.¹ SNPs occur throughout the genome and can correlate to a disease-state if they occur in a functional region of DNA.¹According to the central dogma of molecular biology, any variation in the DNA sequence will have a direct effect on the RNA sequence and will potentially alter the identity or conformation of a protein product. A single RNA molecule, due to intramolecular base pairing, can acquire a plethora of 3-D conformations that are described by its structural ensemble. One SNP, rs12477830, which …

On The Evolution Equation For Modelling The Covid-19 Pandemic, Jonathan Blackledge

Books/Book chapters

The paper introduces and discusses the evolution equation, and, based exclusively on this equation, considers random walk models for the time series available on the daily confirmed Covid-19 cases for different countries. It is shown that a conventional random walk model is not consistent with the current global pandemic time series data, which exhibits non-ergodic properties. A self-affine random walk field model is investigated, derived from the evolutionary equation for a specified memory function which provides the non-ergodic fields evident in the available Covid-19 data. This is based on using a spectral scaling relationship of the type 1/ωα where ω …

Neither “Post-War” Nor Post-Pregnancy Paranoia: How America’S War On Drugs Continues To Perpetuate Disparate Incarceration Outcomes For Pregnant, Substance-Involved Offenders, Becca S. Zimmerman

Pitzer Senior Theses

This thesis investigates the unique interactions between pregnancy, substance involvement, and race as they relate to the War on Drugs and the hyper-incarceration of women. Using ordinary least square regression analyses and data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ 2016 Survey of Prison Inmates, I examine if (and how) pregnancy status, drug use, race, and their interactions influence two length of incarceration outcomes: sentence length and amount of time spent in jail between arrest and imprisonment. The results collectively indicate that pregnancy decreases length of incarceration outcomes for those offenders who are not substance-involved but not evenhandedly -- benefitting white …

Italian Sociologists: A Community Of Disconnected Groups, Aliakbar Akbaritabar, Vincent Traag, Alberto Caimo, Flaminio Squazzoni

Articles

Examining coauthorship networks is key to study scientific collaboration patterns and structural characteristics of scientific communities. Here, we studied coauthorship networks of sociologists in Italy, using temporal and multi-level quantitative analysis. By looking at publications indexed in Scopus, we detected research communities among Italian sociologists. We found that Italian sociologists are fractured in many disconnected groups. The giant connected component of the Italian sociology could be split into five main groups with a mixture of three main disciplinary topics: sociology of culture and communication (present in two groups), economic sociology (present in three groups) and general sociology (present in three …

Novel Inference Methods For Generalized Linear Models Using Shrinkage Priors And Data Augmentation., Arinjita Bhattacharyya

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Generalized linear models have broad applications in biostatistics and sociology. In a regression setup, the main target is to find a relevant set of predictors out of a large collection of covariates. Sparsity is the assumption that only a few of these covariates in a regression setup have a meaningful correlation with an outcome variate of interest. Sparsity is incorporated by regularizing the irrelevant slopes towards zero without changing the relevant predictors and keeping the resulting inferences intact. Frequentist variable selection and sparsity are addressed by popular techniques like Lasso, Elastic Net. Bayesian penalized regression can tackle the curse of …

Evaluating An Ordinal Output Using Data Modeling, Algorithmic Modeling, And Numerical Analysis, Martin Keagan Wynne Brown

Murray State Theses and Dissertations

Data and algorithmic modeling are two different approaches used in predictive analytics. The models discussed from these two approaches include the proportional odds logit model (POLR), the vector generalized linear model (VGLM), the classification and regression tree model (CART), and the random forests model (RF). Patterns in the data were analyzed using trigonometric polynomial approximations and Fast Fourier Transforms. Predictive modeling is used frequently in statistics and data science to find the relationship between the explanatory (input) variables and a response (output) variable. Both approaches prove advantageous in different cases depending on the data set. In our case, the data …

Modelling Interactions Among Offenders: A Latent Space Approach For Interdependent Ego-Networks, Isabella Gollini, Alberto Caimo, Paolo Campana

Articles

Illegal markets are notoriously difficult to study. Police data offer an increasingly exploited source of evidence. However, their secondary nature poses challenges for researchers. A key issue is that researchers often have to deal with two sets of actors: targeted and non-targeted. This work develops a latent space model for interdependent ego-networks purposely created to deal with the targeted nature of police evidence. By treating targeted offenders as egos and their contacts as alters, the model (a) leverages on the full information available and (b) mirrors the specificity of the data collection strategy. The paper then applies this approach to …

Statistical Analysis Of Demographic Effects On Insurance Coverage Of Perinatal And Neonatal Morbidity, Madeline Durbin

Undergraduate Honors Thesis Projects

In the United States of America, Ohio has one of the worst neonatal and perinatal death rates. Within Ohio, Montgomery County has an above average neonatal and perinatal death rate. This statistic can be lowered if more women in Montgomery County have health insurance. They would be more likely to seek out prenatal health care, since they would no longer have to pay as much money out-of-pocket. This would allow medical professionals to be able to diagnose and treat any potential issues in the mother or child earlier. Having health insurance would also prevent mothers-to-be from seeking out other potentially …