Probability Commons^™

Dice Questions Answered, Warren Campbell, William P. Dolan

SEAS Faculty Publications

Superstitious discussion of fair and unfair dice has pervaded the tabletop gaming industry since its inception. Many of these are not based on any quantitative data or studies. Consequently, misconceptions have been spread widely. One dice float test video on Youtube currently has 925,000 views (Fisher, 2015a). To combat the flood of misconceptions we investigated the following questions: 1) Are dice cursed? 2) Are D20s (20-sided dice) less fair than D6s (6-sided dice)? 3) Do float tests tell anything about the fairness of dice? 4) Are some dice systems inherently fairer than others? 5) Are density differences or dimensions more …

V-Slam And Sensor Fusion For Ground Robots, Ejup Hoxha

Dissertations and Theses

In underground, underwater and indoor environments, a robot has to rely solely on its on-board sensors to sense and understand its surroundings. This is the main reason why SLAM gained the popularity it has today. In recent years, we have seen excellent improvement on accuracy of localization using cameras and combinations of different sensors, especially camera-IMU (VIO) fusion. Incorporating more sensors leads to improvement of accuracy,but also robustness of SLAM. However, while testing SLAM in our ground robots, we have seen a decrease in performance quality when using the same algorithms on flying vehicles.We have an additional sensor for ground …

Time-Dependent Reliability Framework For Durability Design Of Frp Composites, Rajneesh Kumar Bharil

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

The life-cycle performance, durability, and aging characteristics of Fiber Reinforced Polymer (FRP or Structural Composites) have been of keen interest to the engineers engaged in the FRP design, construction, and manufacturing. Unlike conventional construction materials such as steel and concrete, the design guidelines to account for the aging of FRP are somewhat scattered or not available in an approved or consistent format. Loss of strength over time or aging of any structural material should be of concern to engineers as the in-service lifespan of many engineering structures is expected to exceed 100 years. Use of durability strength-reduction factors or factors …

Elucidating The Properties And Mechanism For Cellulose Dissolution In Tetrabutylphosphonium-Based Ionic Liquids Using High Concentrations Of Water, Brad Crawford

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

The structural, transport, and thermodynamic properties related to cellulose dissolution by tetrabutylphosphonium chloride (TBPCl) and tetrabutylphosphonium hydroxide (TBPH)-water mixtures have been calculated via molecular dynamics simulations. For both ionic liquid (IL)-water solutions, water veins begin to form between the TBPs interlocking arms at 80 mol % water, opening a pathway for the diffusion of the anions, cations, and water. The water veins allow for a diffusion regime shift in the concentration region from 80 to 92.5 mol % water, providing a higher probability of solvent interaction with the dissolving cellulose strand. The hydrogen bonding was compared between small and large …

Probabilistic Models For Order-Picking Operations With Multiple In-The-Aisle Pick Positions, Jingming Liu

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The development of probability density functions (pdfs) for travel time of a narrow aisle lift truck (NALT) and an automated storage and retrieval (AS/R) machine is the focus of the dissertation. The multiple in-the-aisle pick positions (MIAPP) order picking system can be modeled as an M/G/1 queueing problem in which storage and retrieval requests are the customers and the vehicle (NALT or AS/R machine) is the server. Service time is the sum of travel time and the deterministic time to pick up and deposit a pallet (TPD).

Our first contribution is the development of travel time pdfs for retrieval operations …

Dice Mythbusters, C. Warren Campbell, William P. Dolan

Student Research Conference Select Presentations

All dice are unfair because they cannot be manufactured with absolute precision. However, some dice are more unfair than others. Each year hundreds of millions of dice are sold worldwide. Dice commonly used in role playing games are 4-sided (D4), 6-sided (D6), 8-sided (D8), 10-sided (D10), 12-sided (D12), and 20-sided (D20). Most of these are manufactured using plastic mold injection and rock tumbler methods. This method can result in dimensional inaccuracies in the dice and sometimes density inhomogeneities. In 3000-roll tests of eleven D20 dice only three tested fair. In a running chi square test it was shown that for …

Statistical Investigation Of Road And Railway Hazardous Materials Transportation Safety, Amirfarrokh Iranitalab

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Transportation of hazardous materials (hazmat) in the United States (U.S.) constituted 22.8% of the total tonnage transported in 2012 with an estimated value of more than 2.3 billion dollars. As such, hazmat transportation is a significant economic activity in the U.S. However, hazmat transportation exposes people and environment to the infrequent but potentially severe consequences of incidents resulting in hazmat release. Trucks and trains carried 63.7% of the hazmat in the U.S. in 2012 and are the major foci of this dissertation. The main research objectives were 1) identification and quantification of the effects of different factors on occurrence and …

Season-Ahead Forecasting Of Water Storage And Irrigation Requirements – An Application To The Southwest Monsoon In India, Arun Ravindranath, Naresh Devineni, Upmanu Lall, Paulina Concha Larrauri

Publications and Research

Water risk management is a ubiquitous challenge faced by stakeholders in the water or agricultural sector. We present a methodological framework for forecasting water storage requirements and present an application of this methodology to risk assessment in India. The application focused on forecasting crop water stress for potatoes grown during the monsoon season in the Satara district of Maharashtra. Pre-season large-scale climate predictors used to forecast water stress were selected based on an exhaustive search method that evaluates for highest ranked probability skill score and lowest root-mean-squared error in a leave-one-out cross-validation mode. Adaptive forecasts were made in the years …

Yelp’S Review Filtering Algorithm, Yao Yao, Ivelin Angelov, Jack Rasmus-Vorrath, Mooyoung Lee, Daniel W. Engels

SMU Data Science Review

In this paper, we present an analysis of features influencing Yelp's proprietary review filtering algorithm. Classifying or misclassifying reviews as recommended or non-recommended affects average ratings, consumer decisions, and ultimately, business revenue. Our analysis involves systematically sampling and scraping Yelp restaurant reviews. Features are extracted from review metadata and engineered from metrics and scores generated using text classifiers and sentiment analysis. The coefficients of a multivariate logistic regression model were interpreted as quantifications of the relative importance of features in classifying reviews as recommended or non-recommended. The model classified review recommendations with an accuracy of 78%. We found that reviews …

Risk Assessment Of Dropped Cylindrical Objects In Offshore Operations, Adelina Steven

LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

Dropped object are defined as any object that fall under its own weight from a previously static position or fell due to an applied force from equipment or a moving object. It is among the top ten causes of injuries and fatality in oil and gas industry. To solve this problem, several in-house tools and guidelines is developed over time to assess the risk of dropped objects on the sub-sea structures. This thesis focuses on compiling and comparing those methods in hope to improve the recommended practices available in the market. A simple modification is done on the in-house tools …

Offline And Online Density Estimation For Large High-Dimensional Data, Aref Majdara

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

Density estimation has wide applications in machine learning and data analysis techniques including clustering, classification, multimodality analysis, bump hunting and anomaly detection. In high-dimensional space, sparsity of data in local neighborhood makes many of parametric and nonparametric density estimation methods mostly inefficient.

This work presents development of computationally efficient algorithms for high-dimensional density estimation, based on Bayesian sequential partitioning (BSP). Copula transform is used to separate the estimation of marginal and joint densities, with the purpose of reducing the computational complexity and estimation error. Using this separation, a parallel implementation of the density estimation algorithm on a 4-core CPU is …

Application Of Remote Sensing And Machine Learning Modeling To Post-Wildfire Debris Flow Risks, Priscilla Addison

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

Historically, post-fire debris flows (DFs) have been mostly more deadly than the fires that preceded them. Fires can transform a location that had no history of DFs to one that is primed for it. Studies have found that the higher the severity of the fire, the higher the probability of DF occurrence. Due to high fatalities associated with these events, several statistical models have been developed for use as emergency decision support tools. These previous models used linear modeling approaches that produced subpar results. Our study therefore investigated the application of nonlinear machine learning modeling as an alternative. Existing models …

Particle Filters For State Estimation Of Confined Aquifers, Graeme Field

UNF Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Mathematical models are used in engineering and the sciences to estimate properties of systems of interest, increasing our understanding of the surrounding world and driving technological innovation. Unfortunately, as the systems of interest grow in complexity, so to do the models necessary to accurately describe them. Analytic solutions for problems with such models are provably intractable, motivating the use of approximate yet still accurate estimation techniques. Particle filtering methods have emerged as a popular tool in the presence of such models, spreading from its origins in signal processing to a diverse set of fields throughout engineering and the sciences including …

Hazard Assessment Of Meteoroid Impact For The Design Of Lunar Habitats, Herta Paola Montoya, Shirley Dyke, Julio A. Ramirez, Antonio Bobet, H. Jay Melosh, Daniel Gomez

The Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship (SURF) Symposium

The design of self-sustaining lunar habitats is a challenge primarily due to the Moon’s lack of atmospheric protection and hazardous environment. To assure safe habitats that will lead to further lunar and space exploration, it is necessary to assess the different hazards faced on the Moon such as meteoroid impacts, extreme temperatures, and radiation. In particular, meteoroids pose a risk to lunar structures due to their high frequency of occurrence and hypervelocity impact. Continuous meteoroid impacts can harm structural elements and vital equipment compromising the well-being of lunar inhabitants. This study is focused on the hazard conceptualization and quantification of …

A Traders Guide To The Predictive Universe- A Model For Predicting Oil Price Targets And Trading On Them, Jimmie Harold Lenz

Doctor of Business Administration Dissertations

At heart every trader loves volatility; this is where return on investment comes from, this is what drives the proverbial “positive alpha.” As a trader, understanding the probabilities related to the volatility of prices is key, however if you could also predict future prices with reliability the world would be your oyster. To this end, I have achieved three goals with this dissertation, to develop a model to predict future short term prices (direction and magnitude), to effectively test this by generating consistent profits utilizing a trading model developed for this purpose, and to write a paper that anyone with …

Method For Determining Time-Resolved Heat Transfer Coefficient And Adiabatic Effectiveness Waveforms With Unsteady Film Cooling, James L. Rutledge, Jonathan F. Mccall

AFIT Patents

A new method for determining heat transfer coefficient (h) and adiabatic effectiveness (η) waveforms h(t) and η(t) from a single test uses a novel inverse heat transfer methodology to use surface temperature histories obtained using prior art approaches to approximate the h(t) and η(t) waveforms. The method best curve fits the data to a pair of truncated Fourier series.

The Simulation & Evaluation Of Surge Hazard Using A Response Surface Method In The New York Bight, Michael H. Bredesen

UNF Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Atmospheric features, such as tropical cyclones, act as a driving mechanism for many of the major hazards affecting coastal areas around the world. Accurate and efficient quantification of tropical cyclone surge hazard is essential to the development of resilient coastal communities, particularly given continued sea level trend concerns. Recent major tropical cyclones that have impacted the northeastern portion of the United States have resulted in devastating flooding in New York City, the most densely populated city in the US. As a part of national effort to re-evaluate coastal inundation hazards, the Federal Emergency Management Agency used the Joint Probability Method …

Security Analysis On Network Systems Based On Some Stochastic Models, Xiaohu Li

LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

Due to great effort from mathematicians, physicists and computer scientists, network science has attained rapid development during the past decades. However, because of the complexity, most researches in this area are conducted only based upon experiments and simulations, it is critical to do research based on theoretical results so as to gain more insight on how the structure of a network affects the security. This dissertation introduces some stochastic and statistical models on certain networks and uses a k-out-of-n tolerant structure to characterize both logically and physically the behavior of nodes. Based upon these models, we draw several illuminating results …

Response Surface Optimization Of Electron Beam Freeform Fabrication Depositions Using Design Of Experiments, Patricia A. Quigley

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The Electron Beam Freeform Fabrication (EBF³ ) System is a material depositing, layer additive technique that produces three dimensional (3D) parts out of a wide range of metals in high vacuum, using an electron beam and wire feedstock. Screening deposition trials on a titanium alloy, Ti-6Al-4V, at the National Aeronautics Space Administration (NASA) revealed selective vaporization of the aluminum content of linear prototypes when subjected to chemical analysis. In this study, the aluminum content, bead height and bead width output responses were analyzed from a systematic study of the effects that the interactions of the EBF³ processing parameters …

Embodied Emissions Abatement: A Policy Assessment Using Stochastic Analysis, Adolf Acquaye, Aidan Duffy, Biswajit Basu

Articles

Policymakers traditionally focus on regulating operational energy use in buildings, ignoring other life cycle components such as embodied energy even though this may account for a significant portion of life cycle emissions. Data relating to embodied energy and emissions in buildings is limited. However, stochastic techniques can be used to estimate the distribution of such emissions from buildings. This helps policymakers identify which instruments are appropriate for achieving emissions reductions. A primary aim of this paper is to demonstrate this approach using a sample of apartment buildings in Ireland. A Monte-Carlo simulation suggests that the average probability distribution of embodied …

Stochastic Hybrid Embodied Co2-Eq Analysis: An Application To The Irish Apartment Building Sector, Adolf Acquaye, Aidan Duffy, Biswajit Basu

Articles

Although embodiedCO2-eq analysis has seen recent developments as evident in the establishment of the ISO14040 and 14044 LCA standards, it is recognized that due to weaknesses in gathering data on product-related emissions,embodiedCO2-eq values are probabilistic. This paper presents a stochastic analysis of hybrid embodied CO2-eq in buildings to account for this weakness in traditional methods and, by way of example, applies it to an Irish construction-sector case study. Using seven apartment buildings, 70,000 results are simulated with Monte Carlo analysis and used to derive probabilistic and cumulative embodied CO2-eq intensity distributions for apartment buildings in Ireland. A Wakeby distribution with …

Overcoming Pose Limitations Of A Skin-Cued Histograms Of Oriented Gradients Dismount Detector Through Contextual Use Of Skin Islands And Multiple Support Vector Machines, Jonathon R. Climer

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis provides a novel visualization method to analyze the impact that articulations in dismount pose and camera aspect angle have on histograms of oriented gradients (HOG) features and eventual detections. Insights from these relationships are used to identify limitations in a state of the art skin cued HOG dismount detector's ability to detect poses not in a standard upright stances. Improvements to detector performance are made by further leveraging available skin information, reducing false detections by an additional order of magnitude. In addition, a method is outlined for training supplemental support vector machines (SVMs) from computer generated data, for …

Drag Reduction Of A Modern Straight Truck, Drew Landman, Matthew Cragun, Mike Mccormick, Richard Wood

Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering Faculty Publications

A wind tunnel test program was conducted at the Langley Full Scale Tunnel (LFST) to evaluate the performance of five passive drag reduction configurations on a modern straight truck at full scale. Configurations were tested in a build-up fashion with results representing a cumulative effect. Tested configurations include a front valance, a front box fairing, a boat-tail, an ideal side-skirt, and a practical side-skirt. Configurations were evaluated over a nominal 9 degree yaw sweep to establish wind averaged drag coefficients using SAE J1252. Genuine replicate yaw sweeps were used in an uncertainty analysis. Results show up to 28% improvement in …

The Generation Of Domestic Electricity Load Profiles Through Markov Chain Modelling, Aidan Duffy, Fintan Mcloughlin, Michael Conlon

Conference Papers

Micro-generation technologies such as photovoltaics and micro-wind power are becoming increasing popular among homeowners, mainly a result of policy support mechanisms helping to improve cost competiveness as compared to traditional fossil fuel generation. National government strategies to reduce electricity demand generated from fossil fuels and to meet European Union 20/20 targets is driving this change. However, the real performance of these technologies in a domestic setting is not often known as high time resolution models for domestic electricity load profiles are not readily available. As a result, projections in terms of reducing electricity demand and financial paybacks for these micro-generation …

A Hidden Markov Model Based Approach To Detect Rogue Access Points, Gayathri Shivaraj

Electrical & Computer Engineering Theses & Dissertations

One of the most challenging security concerns for network administrators is the presence of Rogue access points. The challenge is to detect and disable a Rogue access point before it can cause hazardous damage to the network. This thesis proposes a statistically based approach to detect Rogue access points using a Hidden Markov Model, which is applied to passively measure packet-header data collected at a gateway router or any monitoring point. This approach utilizes variations in packet inter-arrival time to differentiate between authorized access points and Rouge access points. This approach used the inter-arrival time of a packet as a …

Maximizing Warfighter Capability Using Surveyed Necessity Measurement: Application To The Usaf F-15c Fleet, John M. Colombi, David R. Jacques, Dennis D. Strouble

Faculty Publications

Within the Department of Defense, with changing missions to counter dynamic and asymmetrical threats, the acquisition workforce strives to maximize capability for joint warfighting. How acquisition professionals measure and select capability improvements for the nation’s weapon systems is a perpetual challenge, made even more complex with constrained defense budgets. This study identifies a method for determining which upgrades should be purchased (production) for which aircraft in the F- 15C fleet by optimizing a capability proxy measure. Each upgrade’s “necessity” for a given mission area was obtained by conducting a survey of over 250 experienced F-15C pilots. The solution presented in …

Uncertainty Assessment Of Aircraft Maintenance Times By Using Evidence Theory And Expert Judgment Elicitation, Huseyin Kudak

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The goal of this study is to demonstrate the use of the Dempster-Shafer Theory of evidence as a decision aid to predict aircraft maintenance times during wartime operations using expert judgment elicitation. Increased precision in time estimation enables the jet engine aircraft maintenance facility commander to make more accurate decisions for the Air Force's wartime tactical operations allowing the commander to gain a decisive advantage. A questionnaire was designed to elicit judgments from experts in the Aircraft Maintenance Facility (AMF) to investigate maintenance times of the major failure modes (Ignition, Fuel, and Electrical). Results of the expert judgment elicitation were …

How Do You Interpret A Confidence Interval?, Paul Savory

Department of Industrial and Management Systems Engineering: Instructional Materials

A confidence interval (CI) is an interval estimate of a population parameter. Instead of estimating the parameter by a single value, a point estimate, an interval likely to cover the parameter is developed. Many student incorrectly interpret the meaning of a confidence interval. This paper offers a quick overview of how to correctly interpret a confidence interval.

Radical Impact Of Change In Actions And Confidence Index On Reverse Decision Making An Application Based Study, Swatee Trimbak Paithankar

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

While making decisions under uncertainty, people are often unaware of the logical approach to form the decision process. It is assumed that collecting details, analyzing and evaluating data is enough to make 'proper' decisions. However, past research in the decision making arena has significantly validated that there exists a class of decision problems which is complex, ill-structured and not defined to the level where decision makers can draw logical conclusions based on existing traditional decision approaches. RDM (reverse decision making), one of the novel approaches of decision making under conditions of uncertainty, has shown potential towards addressing some of these …

Gaussian Mixture Reduction Of Tracking Multiple Maneuvering Targets In Clutter, Jason L. Williams

Theses and Dissertations

The problem of tracking multiple maneuvering targets in clutter naturally leads to a Gaussian mixture representation of the Provability Density Function (PDF) of the target state vector. State-of-the-art Multiple Hypothesis Tracking (MHT) techniques maintain the mean, covariance and probability weight corresponding to each hypothesis, yet they rely on ad hoc merging and pruning rules to control the growth of hypotheses.