Probability Commons^™

Machine Learning For Predictive Energy And Emissions Modeling Of Vehicles And Power Grids In The United States, S M Tanvir Faysal Alam Chowdhoury

Dissertations

The environmental benefits of electric vehicle (EV) adoption depend on more than replacing internal combustion engine vehicles with electric powertrains. EV adoption reshapes electricity demand, interacts with regional generation mixes, and influences travel behavior and congestion, creating a coupled transportation-energy system in which vehicle and power-plant emissions must be evaluated together. This dissertation develops machine-learning frameworks for predicting energy consumption and emissions from vehicles and power grids under rising EV adoption. The first component forecasts grid emissions from EV charging. Using simulation data from NREL's Cambium database, a Prophet-based time-series framework predicts carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane emission rates …

A New Approach To Generate Combinatorial Patterns In Logical Analysis Of Data And Its Application To Predict College Retention, Salihah Ahmed E. Jaafari

Theses and Dissertations

Student retention and degree completion remain central challenges for higher-education institutions, with significant implications for student success, institutional effectiveness, and public accountability. While advances in predictive analytics have enabled earlier identification of students at risk of withdrawal, many commonly used machine learning approaches suffer from limited interpretability, constraining their practical usefulness for advising, intervention, and policy decision making. This dissertation addresses the problem of predicting student persistence by developing and evaluating optimization based, interpretable classification models within the Logical Analysis of Data (LAD) framework. Building on existing LAD formulations, this research introduces two novel pattern generation models, the Best Term …

Using Automotive Lidar To Reduce The Energy Consumption Of An Ego Autonomous Vehicle, Logan P. Schexnaydre

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

There is significant potential to reduce the energy consumption of the transportation sector through autonomous vehicles. Prior work on autonomous vehicle energy efficiency focuses on the whole system or the control subsystem. Yet, the sensing and processing components, which have direct and indirect effects on net energy use, are less explored. This dissertation fills this gap by modeling and evaluating these effects for lidar sensors, which provide high-resolution spatial data at the cost of high power and processing demands. I apply lidar to the energy-saving tasks of automated vehicle following and road surface profiling. For automated vehicle following, I model …

The Excess Path Length Distribution: A Stochastic Model For Sample-Based Path Planners, Chaz B. Cornwall

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

Through random sampling, sample-based path planners enable autonomous agents to quickly find paths without human intervention. However, due to the paths' randomness, sample-based path planners currently require additional verification, partially nullifying agents' ability to act autonomously. I set out to characterize this uncertainty so humans know what to expect from these path planners and know how to alter the path planner to desired specifications. To ensure the results are theoretical as well as practical, I first create a stochastic model of path length uncertainty using the trade-off between sampling time and optimality. By leveraging this model, my proposed algorithm reduces …

(R2120) Flexible Group Service Map/Ph/1 Queueing Model With Working Vacation And Optional Service, G. Ayyappan, S. Kalaiarasi

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

There are many uses of queues, where services are provided in groups; these types of queues are widely studied in the literature. In this paper we examine a particular queueing model wherein the services are provided in groups and the group size may be less than or equal to the size initially fixed. The arrival follows a Markovian arrival process. The service time of each individual customer follows phase type distribution. The maximum of each customer’s individual service time within a group is defined as the group’s service time. At the service completion moment if there are fewer customers than …

Reduced Order Approach For Peening Stress Field Variability, Langdon Feltner, Paul Mort

15th International Conference on Shot Peening

A common goal in shot peening research is to connect operational parameters to resultant residual stress fields, providing a means to control and optimize the effectiveness of surface treatment. In practice, experimental measurements of residual stresses are often averaged values over regions that are large in comparison to an impact dimple. In fact, the stochastic nature of impact locations leads to residual stress fields that are distributed. Finite element peening simulations confirm this observation. The goal of this report is to connect operational parameters to localized fluctuations in residual stress through probabilistic reasoning (Figure 1). In particular, the development of …

Dice Math And Probability, Warren Campbell

SEAS Faculty Publications

The manufacture of dice for tabletop games is a billion-dollar industry. In gaming circles and online forums, the concept of “cursed dice” is a popular topic. Dice are inherently unfair due to the difficulty of manufacturing them with perfect geometric tolerances and uniform material densities. A common method for testing dice fairness is the chi-square statistic, which is typically assumed to follow the chi-square distribution. However, this assumption is only asymptotically valid.

Exact distributions of the statistic can be computed for dice with few sides and a limited number of rolls—such as 2-sided (D2) and 4-sided (D4) dice—but the computational …

Syntax-Enhanced Boundary-Aware Named Entity Recognition Model, Chuanming Yu, Bin Deng, Zhengang Zhang

Journal of Scientific Information Research

[Purpose/significance] This study addresses the issue of inadequate perception of entity boundaries in traditional character-level modeling-based named entity recognition models by integrating syntax information containing entity boundary features into the task using a multi-head graph attention network with dense connections. This integration enhances the effectiveness of named entity recognition.

[Method/process] This study proposes a Syntax-enhanced Boundary-aware Named Entity Recognition Model (SynBNER), which utilizes BERT for text semantic representation and integrates syntax information using a dense-connected graph attention network. This integration incorporates implicit entity boundary information from syntax information into word representations, thereby enhancing the model's entity boundary perception capability.

[Result/conclusion] …

On The H-Property For Step-Graphons: Residual Case, Wanting Gao

McKelvey School of Engineering Graduate Student Theses & Dissertations

We investigate the H-property for step-graphons. Specifically, we sample graphs Gn on n nodes from a step-graphon and evaluate the probability that Gn has a Hamiltonian decomposition in the asymptotic regime as n → ∞. It has been shown in Belabbas and Chen (2023); Belabbas et al. (2021) that for almost all step-graphons, this probability converges to either zero or one. We focus in this paper on the residual case where the zero-one law does not apply. We show that the limit of the probability still exists and provide an explicit expression of it. We present a complete proof of …

Expressive And Interpretable User Engagement Prediction Using Multivariate Survival Processes, Akshay Aravamudan

Theses and Dissertations

The ability to characterize how information diffuses online is of paramount importance to stakeholders that are interested in tasks such as proposing solutions for mitigating and countering dis/misinformation, predicting user engagement of content in social media, planning marketing campaigns to roll-out products and planning dissemination of political campaign messaging among others. One such facet of learning the dynamics of information diffusion is the ability to predict user engagement or the popularity of a single piece of information as it spreads through an online medium. Existing works in this regard mainly either obfuscate user level information or utilize frameworks that are …

Robust Spacecraft Autonomy For Deep Space Exploration In Special Euclidean Group Se(3), Matthew Wittal

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Over the past half-century, humanity has gained extensive experience conducting manned spaceflight near Earth. Arguably, "near Earth" could even include the Moon — the most distant destination humans have reached. However, "near" in this work primarily refers low Earth orbit (LEO). One could argue that we have not truly left Earth since the Apollo, as spacecraft in some LEOs remain subject to atmospheric drag thus emphasizing their continued connection to Earth's immediate environment. Reflecting on this, it becomes clear that humanity has largely remained bound to Earth’s immediate vicinity since the Apollo missions reached the Moon. However, that is set …

Fault Tree Analysis For Robust Design, Jonathan Degroff, Gene Jean-Win Hou

Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering Faculty Publications

The objective of this research is to incorporate system failure into a robust design formation and solution process. The system failure referred to here will be built using fault tree analysis (FTA), which will take all lower-level failure events into consideration. Two examples are investigated here. One will directly treat the probabilities of the basis events as design variables, The other will be formulated in five different models: deterministic design optimization, the reliability index-based, the “and” gate-based, the “or” gate-based and the “inhibit” gate-based robust design. Their corresponding optimization solutions will be compared with each other. The post-optimality analysis of …

Theory And Algorithms To Learn, Propagate, And Exploit Uncertainty For Stochastic Optimal Control Of Dynamical Systems, Vignesh Sivaramakrishnan

Electrical and Computer Engineering ETDs

Non-Gaussian uncertainty frequently arises in learning and control problems involving stochastic dynamical systems, particularly in autonomous vehicles, UAVs, satellites, and robotics. In this dissertation, we propose a new framework that leverages characteristic functions that provides a frequency-domain representation of random variables. The dissertation is structured into three key areas. First, we address model-based stochastic optimal control for linear systems with non-Gaussian noise, demonstrating that characteristic functions can be used to enforce chance constraints and control systems toward desired distributions. Second, we explore data-driven stochastic control, utilizing empirical characteristic functions to handle systems with unknown disturbances. In addition, we derive several …

Exploring Healthcare Chatbot Information Presentation: Applying Hierarchical Bayesian Regression And Inductive Thematic Analysis In A Mixed Methods Study, Samuel Nelson Koscelny

All Theses

High blood pressure, also known as hypertension, significantly increases the risk of heart disease and stroke, which are leading causes of death in the United States. While contributing to over 691,000 deaths in 2021 alone in the United States (U.S.), it also imposes immense economic burden on the healthcare system, costing approximately $131 billion annually. One way to address this issue is for increased self-care behaviors and medication adherence, both of which require sufficient health literacy. Despite the importance of health literacy, 90% of U.S. adults struggle with health-related subjects. Overcoming the issues associated with health literacy requires addressing the …

Comparing North American Professional Sports League Season Formats Using Monte Carlo Simulation, Lathan Gregg

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

Each NFL, NBA, and MLB season consists of a regular season, in which teams play a set number of scheduled games and a playoff, in which qualifying teams compete for a championship. At the conclusion of each season, teams are ranked based on their performance throughout the season. This study aims to investigate the ability of each league's season format to accurately rank teams using Monte Carlo simulation. Matches between two teams are simulated by using the team’s assigned strength ranks to calculate a winning probability for each team. The winning probabilities are simulated with different skill values, dictating how …

Disentangling Cyclic Causality: An Instance-Based Framework For Causal Discovery, Chase A. Yakaboski

Dartmouth College Ph.D Dissertations

Correlation does not imply causation" is one of the fundamental principles taught in science, emphasizing that associations between variables do not necessarily indicate causality. Yet, over the past three decades, extensive research has begun to challenge this perspective by developing sophisticated methods to differentiate causal from correlative relationships. This research suggests that correlations often involve a blend of confounded and causal interactions, which, given certain assumptions, can be disentangled to uncover actionable insights and deepen our understanding of physical, biological, and societal systems.

Accurately discovering causal relationships from data amidst cyclic dynamics remains a challenging open problem in causality research. …

Reducing Food Scarcity: The Benefits Of Urban Farming, S.A. Claudell, Emilio Mejia

Journal of Nonprofit Innovation

Urban farming can enhance the lives of communities and help reduce food scarcity. This paper presents a conceptual prototype of an efficient urban farming community that can be scaled for a single apartment building or an entire community across all global geoeconomics regions, including densely populated cities and rural, developing towns and communities. When deployed in coordination with smart crop choices, local farm support, and efficient transportation then the result isn’t just sustainability, but also increasing fresh produce accessibility, optimizing nutritional value, eliminating the use of ‘forever chemicals’, reducing transportation costs, and fostering global environmental benefits.

Imagine Doris, who is …

Dynamic Influence Diagram-Based Deep Reinforcement Learning Framework And Application For Decision Support For Operators In Control Rooms, Joseph Mietkiewicz, Ammar N. Abbas, Chidera W. Amazu, Anders L. Madsen, Gabriele Baldissone

Articles

In today’s complex industrial environment, operators are often faced with challenging situations that require quick and accurate decision-making. The human-machine interface (HMI) can display too much information, leading to information overload and potentially compromising the operator’s ability to respond effectively. To address this challenge, decision support models are needed to assist operators in identifying and responding to potential safety incidents. In this paper, we present an experiment to evaluate the effectiveness of a recommendation system in addressing the challenge of information overload. The case study focuses on a formaldehyde production simulator and examines the performance of an improved Human-Machine Interface …

Statistical Approach To Quantifying Interceptability Of Interaction Scenarios For Testing Autonomous Surface Vessels, Benjamin E. Hargis, Yiannis E. Papelis

Modeling, Simulation and Visualization Student Capstone Conference

This paper presents a probabilistic approach to quantifying interceptability of an interaction scenario designed to test collision avoidance of autonomous navigation algorithms. Interceptability is one of many measures to determine the complexity or difficulty of an interaction scenario. This approach uses a combined probability model of capability and intent to create a predicted position probability map for the system under test. Then, intercept-ability is quantified by determining the overlap between the system under test probability map and the intruder’s capability model. The approach is general; however, a demonstration is provided using kinematic capability models and an odometry-based intent model.

Stochastic Optimization To Reduce Aircraft Taxi-In Time At Igia, New Delhi, Rajib Das, Saileswar Ghosh, Rajendra Desai, Pijus Kanti Bhuin, Stuti Agarwal

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Since there is an uncertainty in the arrival times of flights, pre-scheduled allocation of runways and stands and the subsequent first-come-first-served treatment results in a sub-optimal allocation of runways and stands, this is the prime reason for the unusual delays in taxi-in times at IGIA, New Delhi.

We simulated the arrival pattern of aircraft and utilized stochastic optimization to arrive at the best runway-stands allocation for a day. Optimization is done using a GRG Non-Linear algorithm in the Frontline Systems Analytic Solver platform. We applied this model to eight representative scenarios of two different days. Our results show that without …

Joint Probability Analysis Of Extreme Precipitation And Water Level For Chicago, Illinois, Anna Li Holey

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

A compound flooding event occurs when there is a combination of two or more extreme factors that happen simultaneously or in quick succession and can lead to flooding. In the Great Lakes region, it is common for a compound flooding event to occur with a high lake water level and heavy rainfall. With the potential of increasing water levels and an increase in precipitation under climate change, the Great Lakes coastal regions could be at risk for more frequent and severe flooding. The City of Chicago which is located on Lake Michigan has a high population and dense infrastructure and …

Novel Bayesian Neural Networks And Uncertainty Quantification Of Computational Mechanics Models, Ponkrshnan Thiagarajan

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

Computational and data-driven models suffer from a wide range of uncertainties that impact the reliability of such models. Given the exponential proliferation of machine learning models in real-world systems, establishing a degree of confidence in their predictions becomes paramount. Reliability in predictions takes on utmost significance in domains such as autonomous driving, medical image analysis, etc., where human lives are involved, and inaccuracies in predictions could lead to disastrous outcomes. For these reasons, comprehending and quantifying uncertainties in computational and data-driven models is of utmost importance. A number of techniques have been developed to quantify uncertainties in machine learning models. …

Machine Learning To Predict Warhead Fragmentation In-Flight Behavior From Static Data, Katharine Larsen

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Accurate characterization of fragment fly-out properties from high-speed warhead detonations is essential for estimation of collateral damage and lethality for a given weapon. Real warhead dynamic detonation tests are rare, costly, and often unrealizable with current technology, leaving fragmentation experiments limited to static arena tests and numerical simulations. Stereoscopic imaging techniques can now provide static arena tests with time-dependent tracks of individual fragments, each with characteristics such as fragment IDs and their respective position vector. Simulation methods can account for the dynamic case but can exclude relevant dynamics experienced in real-life warhead detonations. This research leverages machine learning methodologies to …

Intra-Hour Solar Forecasting Using Cloud Dynamics Features Extracted From Ground-Based Infrared Sky Images, Guillermo Terrén-Serrano

Electrical and Computer Engineering ETDs

Due to the increasing use of photovoltaic systems, power grids are vulnerable to the projection of shadows from moving clouds. An intra-hour solar forecast provides power grids with the capability of automatically controlling the dispatch of energy, reducing the additional cost for a guaranteed, reliable supply of energy (i.e., energy storage). This dissertation introduces a novel sky imager consisting of a long-wave radiometric infrared camera and a visible light camera with a fisheye lens. The imager is mounted on a solar tracker to maintain the Sun in the center of the images throughout the day, reducing the scattering effect produced …

Maximum Likelihood Estimator Method To Estimate Flaw Parameters For Different Glass Types, Nabhajit Goswami

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

Glass is commonly used in architectural applications, such as windows and in-fill panels and structural applications, such as beams and staircases. Despite the popularity of structural glass use in buildings, an engineering design standard to determine the required component or member strength for design loads does not exist. Glass is a brittle material that lacks a well-defined yield or ultimate stress, unlike ductile materials. The traditional engineering methods used to design a ductile material cannot be used to design a glass component. Glass fails in tension primarily due to the presence of microscopic flaws present on the surface that acts …

Risk-Based Machine Learning Approaches For Probabilistic Transient Stability, Umair Shahzad

Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Power systems are getting more complex than ever and are consequently operating close to their limit of stability. Moreover, with the increasing demand of renewable wind generation, and the requirement to maintain a secure power system, the importance of transient stability cannot be overestimated. Considering its significance in power system security, it is important to propose a different approach for enhancing the transient stability, considering uncertainties. Current deterministic industry practices of transient stability assessment ignore the probabilistic nature of variables (fault type, fault location, fault clearing time, etc.). These approaches typically provide a conservative criterion and can result in expensive …

Statistical Modeling, Learning And Computing For Stochastic Dynamics Of Complex Systems, Mohammadmahdi Hajiha

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

With the recent advances in sensor technology, it is much easier to collect and store streams of system operational and environmental (SOE) data. These data can be used as input to model the underlying behavior of complex engineered systems and phenomenons if appropriate algorithms with well-defined assumptions are developed. This dissertation is comprised of the research work to show the applicability of SOE data when fed into proposed tailored algorithms. The first purposes of these algorithms are to estimate and analyze the reliability of a system as elaborated in Chapter 2. This chapter provides the derivation of closed-form expressions that …

Knowledge Discovery From Complex Event Time Data With Covariates, Samira Karimi

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

In particular engineering applications, such as reliability engineering, complex types of data are encountered which require novel methods of statistical analysis. Handling covariates properly while managing the missing values is a challenging task. These type of issues happen frequently in reliability data analysis. Specifically, accelerated life testing (ALT) data are usually conducted by exposing test units of a product to severer-than-normal conditions to expedite the failure process. The resulting lifetime and/or censoring data are often modeled by a probability distribution along with a life-stress relationship. However, if the probability distribution and life-stress relationship selected cannot adequately describe the underlying failure …

Design Project: Smart Headband, John Michel, Jack Durkin, Noah Lewis

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

Concussion in sports is a prevalent medical issue. It can be difficult for medical professionals to diagnose concussions. With the fast pace nature of many sports, and the damaging effects of concussions, it is important that any concussion risks are assessed immediately. There is a growing trend of wearable technology that collects data such as steps and provides the wearer with in-depth information regarding their performance. The Smart Headband project created a wearable that can record impact data and provide the wearer with a detailed analysis on their risk of sustaining a concussion. The Smart Headband uses accelerometers and gyroscopes …

Planning Algorithms Under Uncertainty For A Team Of A Uav And A Ugv For Underground Exploration, Matteo De Petrillo

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

Robots’ autonomy has been studied for decades in different environments, but only recently, thanks to the advance in technology and interests, robots for underground exploration gained more attention. Due to the many challenges that any robot must face in such harsh environments, this remains an challenging and complex problem to solve.

As technology became cheaper and more accessible, the use of robots for underground ex- ploration increased. One of the main challenges is concerned with robot localization, which is not easily provided by any Global Navigation Services System (GNSS). Many developments have been achieved for indoor mobile ground robots, making …