Categorical Data Analysis Commons^™

Effects Of Digital Elevation Model Resolution On Estimates Of Flood Damage In Westbrook, Maine, Scott Webber

Thinking Matters Symposium Archive

Accurate predictions of flood damage and economic losses are increasingly important as historically low-probability floods have become more common. Digital elevation models (DEMs) are essential to flood modeling as they define stream channel and floodplain morphology, the accuracy of which influence estimates of flood damage. The city of Westbrook, Maine experiences episodic flooding of the Presumpscot River; therefore, flooding in Westbrook was simulated with HAZUS, a model created by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The model is designed to assess the costs associated with hazard scenarios including riverine flooding. HAZUS was run for a 100-year return period flood with both …

Stream Crossing Barrier Prioritization Methods For Increasing Eastern Brook Trout Habitat In The Little Androscoggin River Watershed, Michele Windsor

Thinking Matters Symposium Archive

Eastern Brook Trout (Salvelinas fontanalis) are an important cold water fishery in the state of Maine. While populations in Maine are relatively abundant there has been decline in some parts of its range due in part to loss of habitat connectivity. Brook trout require access to specific types of stream habitat for spawning, feeding, and seasonal thermal refuges. Stream crossing structures such as undersized, poorly installed, or blocked culverts, as well as small remnant dams, can create barriers to accessing important stream habitat for brook trout. A recent Fish Barrier/Culvert Survey in the Little Androscoggin River Watershed provided data about …

Obesity Rates In Maine Exceed New England's Obesity Rate: A Look At Possible Contributing Factors, Susan Walker

Thinking Matters Symposium Archive

The purpose of this study was to explore adult obesity data to: Compare Maine’s rates with other New England states and explore differences in Maine counties by looking at known risk factors.

Computational Model For Survey And Trend Analysis Of Patients With Endometriosis : A Decision Aid Tool For Ebm, Salvo Reina, Vito Reina, Franco Ameglio, Mauro Costa, Alessandro Fasciani

COBRA Preprint Series

Endometriosis is increasingly collecting worldwide attention due to its medical complexity and social impact. The European community has identified this as a “social disease”. A large amount of information comes from scientists, yet several aspects of this pathology and staging criteria need to be clearly defined on a suitable number of individuals. In fact, available studies on endometriosis are not easily comparable due to a lack of standardized criteria to collect patients’ informations and scarce definitions of symptoms. Currently, only retrospective surgical stadiation is used to measure pathology intensity, while the Evidence Based Medicine (EBM) requires shareable methods and correct …

Advances In Documentation, Digital Curation, Virtual Exhibition, And A Test Of 3d Geometric Morhpometrics: A Case Study Of The Vanderpool Vessels From The Ancestral Caddo Territory, Robert Z. Selden Jr., Timothy K. Perttula, Michael J. O'Brien

CRHR: Archaeology

Three-dimensional (3D) digital scanning of archaeological materials is typically used as a tool for artifact documentation. With the permission of the Caddo Nation of Oklahoma, 3D documentation of Caddo funerary vessels from the Vanderpool site (41SM77) was conducted with the initial goal of ensuring that these data would be publicly available for future research long after the vessels were repatriated. A digital infrastructure was created to archive and disseminate the resultant 3D datasets, ensuring that they would be accessible by both researchers and the general public (CRHR 2014a). However, 3D imagery can be used for much more than documentation. To …

Short-Term Inflation Forecasting Models For Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa, Sarah O. Alade

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Short-term inflation forecasting is an essential component of the monetary policy projections at the Central Bank of Nigeria. This paper proposes four short-term headline inflation forecasting models using the SARIMA and SARIMAX processes and compares their performance using the pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting procedure over July 2011 to September 2013. According to the results the best forecasting performance is demonstrated by the model based on the all items CPI estimated using the SARIMAX model. This model is, therefore, recommended for use in short-term forecasting of headline inflation in Nigeria. The forecasting performance up to eight months ahead, of the models based on …

An Efficient Two Sample Capture-Recapture Model With High Recaptures, Danjuma Jibasen, Yusuf J. Adams

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper proposed an efficient two sample capture-recapture model (Ma) with high recaptures and compared it with the existing models like the model of no factor effect (Mo), behavioral response model (Mb) and the Petersen model (Ms), using simulated data. We found that the Petersen model provides a better estimate of the population size when the observations follow a hypergeometric distribution and the population is overestimated when recapture is high. It was also found that the proposed model provides a better estimator of the population size than the existing ones when the recapture is high. This model is particularly useful …

Causal Relationship Between Stock Market Index And Exchange Rate: Evidence From Nigeria, Abdulrasheed Zubair

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper uses Johansen’s cointegration to test for the possibility of cointegration and Granger-causality to estimate the causal relationship between stock market index and monetary indicators (exchange rate and M2) before and during the global financial crisis for Nigeria, using monthly data for the period 2001–2011. Results suggest absence of long-run relationship before and during the crisis. The Granger-causality tests show a uni-directional causality running from M2 to ASI before the crisis while during the period of the crisis there is absence of causality between the variables. This suggests that ASI show responsiveness to M2. Thus, absence of the direct …

Investigating Chaos In The Nigerian Asset And Resource Management (Arm) Discovery Fund, Ibiyinka A. Fuwape, Samuel T. Ogunjo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates chaos in a Nigerian mutual fund, Asset and Resource Management Company Limited (ARM) for a period of eleven years. The existence of chaotic signals in the data was identified by the reconstruction of the phase space of the daily closing price of the fund and the delay time was quantified using mutual information function and the embedding dimension by the false nearest neighbours, where the values were identified to be 15 and 20 respectively. The presence of chaotic signals in the ARM data was further confirmed by the correlation dimension method which yielded a dimension of 2.2 …

Modeling The Nigerian Inflation Rates Using Periodogram And Fourier Series Analysis, Chukwuemeka O. Omekara,, Emmanuel J. Ekpenyong, Micheal P. Ekerete

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This work considers the application of Periodogram and Fourier Series Analysis to model all-items monthly inflation rates in Nigeria from 2003 to 2011. The main objectives are to identify inflation cycles, fit a suitable model to the data and make forecasts of future values. To achieve these objectives, monthly all-items inflation rates for the period were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) website. Periodogram and Fourier series methods of analysis are used to analyze the data. Based on the analysis, it was found that inflation cycle within the period was fifty one (51) months, which coincides with the …

Nigerian Stock Index: A Search For Optimal Garch Model Using High Frequency Data, Olaoluwa Simon Yaya

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper attempts to fit the best Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model for All Share Index (ASI) of Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) returns. A search is made on various GARCH variants specified on the assumptions of stationarity and asymmetry. Fractionally integrated types are also considered to capture the possibility of return series having property of long range dependency. The parameter estimations are carried out on the assumptions of normality and non-normality of GARCH innovations, with models and forecasts evaluated using information criteria and loss functions respectively. Under normality assumption, Hyperbolic GARCH (HYGARCH(1,d,1)) model is selected and Integrated GARCH (IGARCH(1,1)) …

Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria External Reserves, Iheanyichukwu S. Iwueze, Eleazar C. Nwogu, Valentine U. Nlebedim

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper discusses the levels and trend of external reserves in Nigeria. The relevance of this lies in the fact that it could help to monitor the reserves and throw early warning signal about any economic crisis. Monthly data on Nigeria external reserves for the period January 1999 to December, 2008 derived from the 2008 CBN Statistical Bulletin was analyzed using ARIMA model. Results of the analyses show that (i) the data requires logarithmic transformation to stabilize the variance and make the distribution normal (ii) the appropriate model that best describes the pattern in the transformed data is the Autoregressive- …

A Markov Decision Process Approach To Optimal Control Of A Multi-Level Hierarchical Manpower System, Akaninyene U. Udom

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

A recurrent problem in manpower control is how to attain the desired structural configuration in an optimal way, since it is possible to reach a desired structural configuration using different control inputs. The major aim of this paper is to develop a Markov Decision Process for optimal control of a Multi-level Hierarchical Manpower System (MHMS) by promotion and interdepartmental transfers. This is examined under control by intervention and contraction cost Markov Decision Process.

Making Sense Of Trends And Data, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

How do you make sense of data when it is all unpredictable?

A Bayesian Model For Cluster Detection, Jonathan Wakefield, Albert Y. Kim

Statistical and Data Sciences: Faculty Publications

The detection of areas in which the risk of a particular disease is significantly elevated, leading to an excess of cases, is an important enterprise in spatial epidemiology. Various frequentist approaches have been suggested for the detection of “clusters” within a hypothesis testing framework. Unfortunately, these suffer from a number of drawbacks including the difficulty in specifying a p-value threshold at which to call significance, the inherent multiplicity problem, and the possibility of multiple clusters. In this paper, we suggest a Bayesian approach to detecting “areas of clustering” in which the study region is partitioned into, possibly multiple, “zones” …

Repeated Changes In Reported Sexual Orientation Identity Linked To Substance Use Behaviors In Youth, Miles Q. Ott, David Wypij, Heather L. Corliss, Margaret Rosario, Sari L. Reisner, Allegra R. Gordon, S. Bryn Austin

Statistical and Data Sciences: Faculty Publications

Purpose—Previous studies have found that sexual minority (e.g., lesbian, gay, bisexual) adolescents are at higher risk of substance use than heterosexuals, but few have examined how changes in sexual orientation over time may relate to substance use. We examined the associations between change in sexual orientation identity and marijuana use, tobacco use, and binge drinking in U.S. youth.

Methods—Prospective data from 10,515 U.S. youth ages 12-27 years in a longitudinal cohort study were analyzed using sexual orientation identity mobility measure M (frequency of change from 0 [no change] to 1 [change at every wave]) in up to five waves of …

The Net Reclassification Index (Nri): A Misleading Measure Of Prediction Improvement With Miscalibrated Or Overfit Models, Margaret Pepe, Jin Fang, Ziding Feng, Thomas Gerds, Jorgen Hilden

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

The Net Reclassification Index (NRI) is a very popular measure for evaluating the improvement in prediction performance gained by adding a marker to a set of baseline predictors. However, the statistical properties of this novel measure have not been explored in depth. We demonstrate the alarming result that the NRI statistic calculated on a large test dataset using risk models derived from a training set is likely to be positive even when the new marker has no predictive information. A related theoretical example is provided in which a miscalibrated risk model that includes an uninformative marker is proven to erroneously …

State Level Earned Income Tax Credit’S Effects On Race And Age: An Effective Poverty Reduction Policy, Anthony J. Barone

CMC Senior Theses

In this paper, I analyze the effectiveness of state level Earned Income Tax Credit programs on improving of poverty levels. I conducted this analysis for the years 1991 through 2011 using a panel data model with fixed effects. The main independent variables of interest were the state and federal EITC rates, minimum wage, gross state product, population, and unemployment all by state. I determined increases to the state EITC rates provided only a slight decrease to both the overall white below-poverty population and the corresponding white childhood population under 18, while both the overall and the under-18 black population for …

Revising Common Core Georgia Performance Standards Statistics Lesson Plans To Better Align With Statistical Practice, Rachel Bonilla

College of Graduate Studies: Theses & Dissertations

In this thesis, lesson plans provided by the Georgia Department of Education are revised to give students better exposure and practice working with real-life data. Three learning tasks and a performance task are presented covering a unit lesson on statistical regression. The development of Georgia statistics curriculum standards are reviewed and presented.

An Analysis Of Risk Reduction Choices In Dcis Breast Cancer Patients, Lauren Soltesz

Statistics

The main focus of this paper was to evaluate possible demographic and clinical characteristics associated with a woman’s choice of breast conserving surgery (BCS), unilateral mastectomy (ULM), or bilateral risk reduction mastectomy (BRRM). The cohort consisted of patients presenting to the City of Hope National Medical Center with ductal carcinoma in situ breast cancer who elected to have cancer directed surgery (N=305). Analyses to examine associations of patient characteristics with type of surgery were conducted using a multinomial logistic regression. Results showed that older women were more likely to choose breast conserving surgery over bilateral risk reduction mastectomy than younger …

Analysis Of Alcohol Use Among Pregnant Women In San Luis Obispo County, Samantha Law

Statistics

Drinking alcohol during pregnancy is harmful to the fetus, and can lead to serious alcohol related developmental birth defects. Utilizing prenatal screening, such as the 4P’s Plus© screening tool, during a woman’s first prenatal doctors visit can help educate women and reduce continued alcohol use during pregnancy. Currently the CDC reports that 1 in 13 women in the US drink alcohol while pregnant compared to local reports that 1 in 3 women in San Luis Obispo County continue to drink alcohol during pregnancy. A primary concern for many local county health care experts and organizations is to raise awareness that …

Group Testing Regression Models, Boan Zhang

Department of Statistics: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Group testing, where groups of individual specimens are composited to test for the presence or absence of a disease (or some other binary characteristic), is a procedure commonly used to reduce the costs of screening a large number of individuals. Statistical research in group testing has traditionally focused on a homogeneous population, where individuals are assumed to have the same probability of having a disease. However, individuals often have different risks of positivity, so recent research has examined regression models that allow for heterogeneity among individuals within the population. This dissertation focuses on two problems involving group testing regression models. …

Comparative Analysis Of Dispersion Parameter Estimates In Loglinear Modeling: Applied To E-Commerce Sales And Customer Data, Scott Davis

Statistics

When loglinear models are applied to count data the issue of over-dispersion often arises. Moment and maximum likelihood estimation methods in accounting for over-dispersion are widely used because they allow for model checking tools such as Chi-square, F, and likelihood ratio tests. Here is a comparison between R functions that each uses one method; glm.nb uses MLE, and glm.poisson.disp uses MME. The Index of Dissimilarity and visual model selection (ECDF plots) are also incorporated. These are applied to sales data using product and customer information compiled over the last five years that was generously provided by an e-commerce company.

Analysis Of Median Household Income Differences Between Election Day-Vbm And Eip Voters, Mark Salling, Norman Robbins

All Maxine Goodman Levin School of Urban Affairs Publications

Analysis of early in-person (EIP) voting in 2008 in Cuyahoga County shows that African-American, white, and Hispanic voters who used EIP voting had significantly lower incomes than members of those same groups who voted on election day or by mail. This result applies to those voting EIP on weekdays, extended weekday hours, weekends, and the three days before election day.

Investigation Of Trends And Predictive Effectiveness Of Crash Severity Models, James E. Mooradian

Master's Theses

This thesis describes analysis using ordinal logistic regression to uncover temporal patterns in the severity level (fatal, serious injury, minor injury, slight injury or no injury) for persons involved in highway crashes in Connecticut, focusing on the demographic split between senior travelers (65 years and over) and non-senior travelers. Existing state sources provide data describing the time and weather conditions for each crash and the vehicles and persons involved over the time period from 1995 to 2009 as well as the traffic volumes and the characteristics of the roads on which these crashes occurred. Findings indicate an overall increase in …

Interactive Concept To Aid In Understanding Dimensional Analysis, Alicia Hicks

Symposium 2012

Many students struggle with learning how to utilize dimensional analysis. This confusion is due to not understanding the concept of dose per volume, leading to difficulty when starting the sequencing. This could be one of the contributing causes to medication errors in clinical practice. Does using models, such as Play-doh and pebbles, help students learn the concept of milligrams per milliliters when calculating dosages using dimensional analysis method? A series of pre- and post-tests are used to measure learning growth in each of the treatment groups. Three treatment groups were utilized: Control: one group had no intervention between the pre …

Analyzing Financial Data Through Interactive Visualization, Fizi Yadav

Purdue Polytechnic Masters Theses

This investigation explored the role data visualization in the scientific community and its effect on the cognitive ability of an individual. The research attempted to answer the question, “ Whether appropriate data visualization helps in better understanding of corporate financial data?” and used quantitative methods to gain an insight. Participants in the study were divided into two groups of 30 each, with one group receiving the treatment devised for the research and the other using the common prevalent method. Both the groups were subjected to a test, based upon the analysis of which a conclusion was derived. The subjects were …

Using The R Library Rpanel For Gui-Based Simulations In Introductory Statistics Courses, Ryan M. Allison

Statistics

As a student, I noticed that the statistical package R (http://www.r-project.org) would have several benefits of its usage in the classroom. One benefit to the package is its free and open-source nature. This would be a great benefit for instructors and students alike since it would be of no cost to use, unlike other statistical packages. Due to this, students could continue using the program after their statistical courses and into their professional careers. It would be good to expose students while they are in school to a tool that professionals use in industry. R also has powerful …

Alternatives To Mixture Model Analysis Of Correlated Binomial Data, N. Rao Chaganty, Roy Sabo, Yihao Deng

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

While univariate instances of binomial data are readily handled with generalized linear models, cases of multivariate or repeated measure binomial data are complicated by the possibility of correlated responses. Likelihood-based estimation can be applied by using mixture distribution models, though this approach can present computational challenges. The logistic transformation can be used to bypass these concerns and allow for alternative estimating procedures. One popular alternative is the generalized estimating equation (GEE) method, though systematic errors can lead to infeasible correlation estimates or nonconvergence problems. Our approach is the coupling of quasileast squares (QLSs) method with a rarely used matrix factorization, …

Racial And Ethnic Proportions Of Early In-Person Voters In Cuyahoga County, General Election 2008, And Implications For 2012, Norman Robbins, Mark Salling

All Maxine Goodman Levin School of Urban Affairs Publications

No abstract provided.