Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Conflicts In Bayesian Statistics Between Inference Based On Credible Intervals And Bayes Factors, Miodrag M. Lovric

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

In frequentist statistics, point-null hypothesis testing based on significance tests and confidence intervals are harmonious procedures and lead to the same conclusion. This is not the case in the domain of the Bayesian framework. An inference made about the point-null hypothesis using Bayes factor may lead to an opposite conclusion if it is based on the Bayesian credible interval. Bayesian suggestions to test point-nulls using credible intervals are misleading and should be dismissed. A null hypothesized value may be outside a credible interval but supported by Bayes factor (a Type I conflict), or contrariwise, the null value may be inside …

Boom Or Bust: Examining The Relationship Between High School Recruiting Rankings And The Nfl Draft, Nicholas E. Tice

Senior Theses

The goal of this thesis is to model the probability of a high school football player’s chance of being drafted based on information taken from their recruiting profile. The response variable is binary and defined as drafted (1) or undrafted (0). The independent variables were collected by scraping data from the recruiting websites including height, weight, position, hometown, recruiting grade and other socioeconomic factors based on the player’s high school. 247Sports and ESPN were the two recruiting services used and compared in this study. Because of the binary nature of the dependent variable, logistic regression and decision trees were chosen …

A New Liu Type Of Estimator For The Restricted Sur Estimator, Kristofer Månsson, B. M. Golam Kibria, Ghazi Shukur

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

A new Liu type of estimator for the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) models is proposed that may be used when estimating the parameters vector in the presence of multicollinearity if the it is suspected to belong to a linear subspace. The dispersion matrices and the mean squared error (MSE) are derived. The new estimator may have a lower MSE than the traditional estimators. It was shown using simulation techniques the new shrinkage estimator outperforms the commonly used estimators in the presence of multicollinearity.

Sampling The Porridge: A Comparison Of Ordered Variable Regression With F And R2 And Multiple Linear Regression With Corrected F And R2 In The Presence Of Multicollinearity, Grayson L. Baird, Stephen L. Bieber

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Differences between the multiple linear regression model with Corrected R² and Corrected F and the ordered variable regression model with R² and F when intercorrelation is present are illustrated with simulated and real-world data.

A Study Verifying The Dimensioning Of A Multivariate Dichotomized Sample In Exploratory Factor Analysis, Rosilei S. Novak, Jair M. Marques

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

The sample size dichotomized was related to the measure of sampling adequacy, considering the explanations provided by factors and commonalities. Monte Carlo simulation generated multivariate normal samples and varying the number of observations, the factor analysis was applied in each sample dichotomized. Results were modeled by polynomial regression based on the sample sizing.

Parametric And Non-Parametric Tests For The Comparison Of Two Samples Which Both Include Paired And Unpaired Observations, Ben Derrick, Paul White, Deirdre Toher

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Samples that include both independent and paired observations cause a dilemma for researchers that covers the full breadth of empirical research. Parametric approaches for the comparison of two samples using all available observations are considered, under normality and non-normality. These approaches are compared to naive and newly proposed non-parametric alternatives.

Effects Of Diabetes On The Output Of Farmer And Its Policy Implications, Syed Asif Ali Naqvi, Bilal Hussain, Syed Ale Raza Shah, Muhammad Sohail Amjad Makhdum

Kesmas

This study investigated the impact of diabetes on work performance of different farming communities from Punjab, Pakistan. This study was based on cross-sectional data. A representative sample of 374 farmers was collected from five selected districts. Three types of respondents were analyzed in the study e.g.,laborer, small and large growers. Poisson and logistic regression techniques were used for the sake of analysis. According to the investigated results for thelabor category, respondents with more age, less qualification, low earning per month (Rupees), and having positive record of family diabetes, would havemore leave per month. In the same way, findings for small …

Qualitative Exploration Of Experiences And Consequences Of Health-Related Stigma Among Indonesians With Hiv, Leprosy, Schizophrenia And Diabetes, Sarju Sing Rai, Irwanto Irwanto, Ruth M.H. Peters, Elena V. Syurina, Annisa Ika Putri, Altana Mikhakhanova, Denise Naniche, Marjolein B.M. Zweekhorst

Kesmas

Health-related stigma causes a negative impact on the lives of affected people and undermines the effectiveness of public health programs. This study aimedto explore experiences and consequences of stigma among people affected by four health conditions relevant in Indonesia– HIV (Human ImmunodeficiencyVirus), leprosy, schizophrenia and diabetes. In this qualitative study 40 people affected by the four health conditions in Jakarta and West Java, Indonesia–,were interviewed between March and June 2018. Data were analyzed thematically by following an integrative inductive-deductive approach. The experiencesand consequences of people with stigma were similar, but such experience were more severe among people affected by HIV, …

Entomological Index And Home Environment Contribution­ ­To Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever In Mataram City, Indonesia, Tri Baskoro Tunggul Satoto, Nur Alvira Pascawati, Tri Wibawa, Roger Frutos, Sylvie Maguin, I Kadek Mulyawan, Ali Wardana

Kesmas

Indonesia is a member of Southeast Asia Regional Office (SEARO) ranked the first in dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) problem based on incidence rate (IR) and case fatality rate (CFR). Several provinces in Indonesia experience an outbreak, one of which is the Mataram City in West Nusa Tenggara Province. Mataram City is an endemic area of DHF because the DHF cases are always found in three consecutive years with the number of cases that fluctuate and tend to increase. This study aimed to obtain factors that could be used to improve early warning systems in controlling DHF. This study used a …

Utilization Of Family Planning Contraceptives Among Women Inthe Coastal Area Of South Buru District, Maluku, 2017, Christiana Rialine Titaley, Ninik Sallatalohy

Kesmas

Maluku Province is one among provinces in Indonesia with a contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) lower than the national average. This study aimed toexamine factors associated with the utilization of family planning contraceptives among women of reproductive age living in the coastal area of South BuruDistrict, Maluku, Indonesia. Data were derived from a household health survey conducted in five subdistricts in South Buru, e.g., Namrole, Leksula, Waesama,Kapala Madan and Ambalau Subdistricts on November 2017 by the Faculty of Medicine, Pattimura University in Ambon. Information on contraceptive usewere collected from 390 married women aged 20 - 49 years. Bivariate and multivariate logistic …

Determinants Of Stunted Children In Indonesia: A Multilevel Analysis At The Individual, Household, And Community Levels, Febri Wicaksono, Titik Harsanti

Kesmas

This study aimed to examine the risk factors of childhood undernutrition in Indonesia. Determinants of childhood stunting were examined by using the 2013 Indonesia Basic Health Research Survey dataset. A total of 76,165 children aged under 5 years were included in this study. The analysis used multivariate multilevel logistic regression to determine adjusted odds ratios (aORs). The prevalence of stunting in the sample population was 36.7%. The odds of stunting increased significantly among the under-five boys, children living in slum area, and the increase of household member (aOR = 1.11, 95 %CI: 1.06–1.15; 1.09, 95%CI: 1.04–1.15; and 1.03, 95%CI: 1.02–1.04 …

Health Risk Behaviors: Smoking, Alcohol, Drugs, And Dating Among Youths In Rural Central Java, Zahroh Shaluhiyah, Syamsulhuda Budi Musthofa, Ratih Indraswari, Aditya Kusumawati

Kesmas

Adolescents are more likely to adopt risky health behaviors, such as smoking, alcohol use, and sexual activity. This study examined the links betweensmoking, alcohol use, and risky dating behavior and analyzed how these factors influenced risky dating and other behaviors. It is expected that this studywould be used as a foundation for developing appropriate integrated intervention for multiple risk behaviors among youths. This study was an explanatory research study with a cross-sectional approach. It involved 160 youths aged 15-24 years randomly selected from purposive villages. Participants completedself-administrated questionnaires with an enumerator present. Data were analyzed using univariate, chi-square, and multiple …

Evaluation Of Program For Overcoming Intestinal Worm Infections Among Children, Henny Febriyanti, Haerawati Idris

Kesmas

Prevalence of intestinal worm infection in generall is extremely high in Indonesia among the poor population with poor sanitation. One of the government programs to address this problem is the distribution of medicines to prevent intestinal worm infections. However, the coverage of the achievement for this program is still low in several areas of public health centers in Palembang. Therefore, this study was conducted to evaluate the efficacy of the national program for preventing intestinal worm infections. The qualitative research design used evaluation model approach Context, Input, Process, and Product (CIPP) model. This study was conducted in one of health …

Small Area Estimation On Zero-Inflated Data Using Frequentist And Bayesian Approach, Kusman Sadik, Rahma Anisa, Euis Aqmaliyah

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

The most commonly used method of small area estimation (SAE) is the empirical best linear unbiased prediction method based on a linear mixed model. However, it is not appropriate in the case of the zero-inflated target variable with a mixture of zeros and continuously distributed positive values. Therefore, various model-based SAE methods for zero-inflated data are developed, such as the Frequentist approach and the Bayesian approach. Both approaches are compared with the survey regression (SR) method which ignores the presence of zero-inflation in the data. The results show that the two SAE approaches for zero-inflated data are capable to yield …

The Importance Of Type I Error Rates When Studying Bias In Monte Carlo Studies In Statistics, Michael Harwell

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Two common outcomes of Monte Carlo studies in statistics are bias and Type I error rate. Several versions of bias statistics exist but all employ arbitrary cutoffs for deciding when bias is ignorable or non-ignorable. This article argues Type I error rates should be used when assessing bias.

Dynamic Conditional Correlation Garch: A Multivariate Time Series Novel Using A Bayesian Approach, Diego Nascimento, Cleber Xavier, Israel Felipe, Francisco Louzada Neto

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

The Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH (DCC-GARCH) mutation model is considered using a Monte Carlo approach via Markov chains in the estimation of parameters, time-dependence variation is visually demonstrated. Fifteen indices were analyzed from the main financial markets of developed and developing countries from different continents. The performances of indices are similar, with a joint evolution. Most index returns, especially SPX and NDX, evolve over time with a higher positive correlation.

Regression When There Are Two Covariates: Some Practical Reasons For Considering Quantile Grids, Rand Wilcox

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

When dealing with the association between some random variable and two covariates, extensive experience with smoothers indicates that often a linear model poorly reflects the nature of the association. A simple approach via quantile grids that reflects the nature of the association is given. The two main goals are to illustrate this approach can make a practical difference, and to describe R functions for applying it. Included are comments on dealing with more than two covariates.

Bivariate Analogs Of The Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney Test And The Patel–Hoel Method For Interactions, Rand Wilcox

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

A fundamental way of characterizing how two independent compares compare is in terms of the probability that a randomly sampled observation from the first group is less than a randomly sampled observation from the second group. The paper suggests a bivariate analog and investigates methods for computing confidence intervals. An interaction for a two-by-two design is investigated as well.

Assessing The Accuracy Of Approximate Confidence Intervals Proposed For The Mean Of Poisson Distribution, Alireza Shirvani, Malek Fathizadeh

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

The Poisson distribution is applied as an appropriate standard model to analyze count data. Because this distribution is known as a discrete distribution, representation of accurate confidence intervals for its distribution mean is extremely difficult. Approximate confidence intervals were presented for the Poisson distribution mean. The purpose of this study is to simultaneously compare several confidence intervals presented, according to the average coverage probability and accurate confidence coefficient and the average confidence interval length criteria.

Analytical Closed-Form Solution For General Factor With Many Variables, Stan Lipovetsky, Vladimir Manewitsch

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

The factor analytic triad method of one-factor solution gives the explicit analytical form for a common latent factor built by three variables. The current work considers analytical presentation of a general latent factor constructed in a closed-form solution for multivariate case. The results can be supportive to theoretical description and practical application of latent variable modeling, especially for big data because the analytical closed-form solution is not prone to data dimensionality.

Regression Modeling And Prediction By Individual Observations Versus Frequency, Stan Lipovetsky

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

A regression model built by a dataset could sometimes demonstrate a low quality of fit and poor predictions of individual observations. However, using the frequencies of possible combinations of the predictors and the outcome, the same models with the same parameters may yield a high quality of fit and precise predictions for the frequencies of the outcome occurrence. Linear and logistical regressions are used to make an explicit exposition of the results of regression modeling and prediction.

Exploration Of Factors Associated With Perceptions Of Community Safety Among Youth In Hillsborough County, Florida: A Convergent Parallel Mixed-Methods Approach, Yingwei Yang

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Introduction: Youth perceived safety is not only linked to crime and violence in a neighborhood but is also associated with health risk behaviors and certain neighborhood characteristics. The purpose of this mixed-methods study was to measure the co-occurring effects of individual and community risk factors by conducting a secondary data analysis using structural equation modeling (SEM) and to explore reasons for youth feeling safe/unsafe in their community using photovoice methodology.

Methods: Syndemic theory/model served as the theoretical framework to guide this mixed-methods study with a convergent parallel design. The quantitative strand (first manuscript) utilized an existing dataset collected from middle …

Mentoring Multi-College Bystander Efficacy Evaluation – An Approach To Growing The Next Generation Of Gender-Based Interpersonal Violence Intervention And Prevention (Vip) Researchers, Ann L. Coker, Danielle Davidov, Heather M. Bush, Emily R. Clear

Obstetrics and Gynecology Faculty Publications

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention provided funding (U01 CE002668) to evaluate bystander program efficacy to reduce gender-based violence on college campuses (Aim 1) and to create a mentoring network (Aim 2) for young campus-based researchers interested in violence intervention or prevention (VIP). While an evaluation of this mentoring program is ongoing, our purpose here was to document the strategies used to create, implement, and begin evaluation of this national multi-college mentoring network. As each public college was recruited into this evaluation named multi-college Bystander Efficacy Evaluation (mcBEE), each college was invited to nominate a researcher interested in receiving …

The Author’S Reflections On No B.S. (Bad Stats): Black People Need People Who Believe In Black People Enough Not To Believe Every Bad Thing They Hear About Black People, Ivory A. Toldson

Numeracy

Toldson, Ivory. A. 2019. No BS (Bad Stats): Black People Need People Who Believe in Black People Enough Not to Believe Every Bad Thing They Hear About Black People (Boston, MA: Brill-Sense) 194 pp. ISBN 978-9004397026.

This essay provides an introduction to No BS (Bad Stats): Black People Need People Who Believe in Black People Enough Not to Believe Every Bad Thing They Hear About Black People. In the essay, the author discusses how cynical views about the educational potential of Black children motivated him to write a book that challenges negative statistics. The essay also outlines the harmful …

Effects Of Quantitative Literacy On Healthcare Decision-Making: An Aural Context, Robert G. Root, Sonia Bhala

Numeracy

We propose a relationship between sensory modality, numerical formatting, and performance on a survey simulating healthcare decision-making. We examine the current literature on aural health literacy, and specifically aural literacy coupled with health numeracy. We then create a survey instrument called the Bhala test for this purpose and demonstrate that it is moderately internally consistent and provides results that correlate with the NUMi assessment, a widely accepted measure of health numeracy. The quantitative information provided in the Bhala test has two treatments, percentage and natural frequency formats, in an effort to determine which format is easier for subjects to use …

Perceived Neighborhood: Preferences Versus Actualities, Saeed Moradi, Ali Nejat, Da Hu, Souparno Ghosh

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

Housing recovery plays a key role in the overall restoration of a community. A multitude of factors affect housing recovery, many of which are associated with interactions of residents with their perceived neighborhoods. Targeting perceived neighborhoods rather than administratively defined measures of land helps with devising recovery plans that could better address social preferences of the residents. However, such measures are commonly subject to collection of information via expensive and time-consuming surveys. The current research aims to contribute to the domain by exploring the relationship between perception of households of their neighborhood anchors (perceived anchors) and the anchors that exist …

The Effects Of Adverse Childhood Experiences On Behavioral Outcomes, Jennifer Thomas

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This study intends to explore the intersection of two vulnerable populations, early childhood development and risks associated with exposure to adverse childhood experiences (ACEs). This study examines how age plays a role in the long-term relationship between ACEs and internal and external behaviors. This study seeks to answer the question of: How does age influence the relationship between number of ACEs and internal and external behaviors? The participants in this study include those aged 0 – 16 from the National Survey of Child and adolescent Well-Being (NSCAW) dataset. The NSCAW study consists of five waves of data where Wave I …

Is The Reliability Of Objective Originality Scores Confounded By Elaboration?, Shannon Marie Maio

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The increased use of text-mining models as a scoring mechanism for divergent thinking (DT) tasks has sparked concerns about the ways in which automated Originality scores may be influenced by other dimensions of DT, especially Elaboration. The debate centers around the question of whether too much variance in automated Originality scores is accounted for by the number of words a participant uses in a response (i.e., Elaboration), and, thus, how the influence of Elaboration can affect the reliability of Originality scores. Here, a partial correlation analysis, in conjunction with text-mining and psychometric modeling, is conducted to test the degree to …

Measuring The Connective Action Of Black Lives Matter Activists: A Psychometric Investigation Into Twitter Data, Paige Alfonzo

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Many protest movements from the last twenty-first century have become increasingly networked and personalized. Several scholars have tapped into this change coining terms such as participatory action, digitally mediated action, computer-mediated communication, issue-based organization, and what I focus on in this project, connective action. Building on the ideas percolating across the literary landscape at the time, Bennett and Segerberg (2012) introduced the logic of connective action based on emergent characteristics they observed in post-2010 large-scale social movements. Both the logic of connective action and related work have become deeply ingrained in today's social movement scholarship. As such, I felt it …

First Past The Poll: A Blog About Political Statistics, Bradley Wascher

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

This Capstone Experience project details my efforts to become a political data journalist. I took the first major step in August 2018, starting First Past the Poll, my politics blog. For three semesters, this website was frequently updated with nonpartisan reports on the latest elections, deep dives on long-term polling trends, and commentary on political numbers more broadly. Hoping to buck the trend of the stodgy prose prevalent throughout politics, my stories combined academic rigor with accessible writing.

As I began to find my footing in the field, First Past the Poll put me in the position to become …